Malaysian Markets Weekly Wrap - Week Ended 14 July

Transcription

1. WEEKLY WRAP : Week ended 14 July 2017  The FBM KLCI moved sideways amid a lack of domestic leads and closed 0.3% lower at 1,755 points for the week.  Led by the China market, regional markets rebounded on expectations that China’s robust growth momentum in June would help lift economic activities among China’s regional trading partners.  Looking ahead, investors are expected to continue monitoring the pace of global economic activities as well as the next Federal Reserve meeting on 25 and 26 July 2017. Performance of Key Indices (As at 14 Jul 17) Region Market FBM KLCI FTSE Bursa Malaysia EMAS Shariah Index Local South East Asia North Asia Wall Street Europe Straits Times Index Jakarta Composite Index China ‘H’ Shares Shanghai Composite Index Dow Jones Nasdaq STOXX Europe 50 Index Index 1,755 12,675 % Weekly Change -0.3 -0.7 3,287 +1.8 5,832 10,728 3,222 21,638 6,312 3,168 +0.3 +4.6 +0.1 +1.0 +2.6 +1.7 1. Stock Market Commentary Market Comments Sideways in tight trading range: The FBM KLCI moved sideways within a tight Local trading range of 1,752 points and 1,761 points. Despite moderately firmer oil prices, sentiment was lacklustre amid the absence of any compelling leads. The FBM KLCI subsequently closed at 1,755 points to register a weekly loss of 0.3%. The FBM EMAS Shariah Index eased by 0.7% to close at 12,675 points for the week. Meanwhile, the FBM Small Cap Index closed 1.4% lower over the week. Regional Optimism over China’s economic outlook: Led by the China market, regional markets rebounded on expectations that China’s robust growth momentum in June would help lift economic activities among China’s regional trading partners. Sentiment was also lifted by firmer regional currencies on expectations of a slower pace in U.S. interest rate hikes. The China ‘H’ shares and Hong Kong markets rose by 4.6% and 4.1% respectively for the week. In South-East Asia, most markets remained nearly flat, except for Singapore, which closed 1.8% higher over the same period. Down under, the Australian market registered a weekly gain of 1.1% on the back of gains in selected finance-related stocks. Page 1 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Regional Markets Rebound on Robust Export Growth in China
2. Comments Fed chair comments boost sentiment : The Congressional testimony of the Federal Reserve chair stating that the Fed is not in a hurry to raise interest rates helped the Dow to rise by 1.0% to close at a record high of 21,638 points. The Nasdaq rose by a wider margin of 2.6% to close at 6,312 points over the week. Europe European markets, as proxied by the STOXX Europe 50 Index, rose by 1.7% as sentiment was underpinned by the dovish comments of the Federal Reserve chair. Selected Markets’ Weekly Performances 1,760 12,766 17,378 % Weekly change -0.3 -0.7 -1.4 % YTD change +6.9 +5.5 +16.4 3,287 1,578 5,832 7,886 3,229 1,569 5,815 7,889 +1.8 +0.5 +0.3 -0.04 +14.1 +2.3 +10.1 +15.3 7,765 10,728 26,389 604 2,415 10,444 1,625 3,222 7,388 10,252 25,341 583 2,380 10,297 1,607 3,218 +5.1 +4.6 +4.1 +3.6 +1.5 +1.4 +1.1 +0.1 +29.6 +14.2 +19.9 +24.8 +19.2 +12.9 +7.0 +3.8 +2.6 +2.1 +1.7 +1.1 +1.0 +0.4 # in USD +17.3 +12.3 +5.2 +1.8 +9.5 +3.3 14 Jul 17 7 Jul 17 1,755 12,675 17,131 South-East Asia Singapore Thailand Indonesia Philippines North Asia MSCI China China*, H Share Hong Kong MSCI FEXJ# South Korea Taiwan TOPIX (Japan) SH Comp (China) FBM KLCI FBM EMAS Shariah Index FBM Small Cap Index Global Nasdaq 6,312 6,153 MSCI World# 474 464 Europe** 3,168 3,116 Australia 5,765 5,704 Dow Jones 21,638 21,414 FTSE 100 (U.K.) 7,378 7,351 * Hang Seng China Enterprises Index **STOXX Europe 50 Index 2. Economic Commentary Market Commentary Malaysia - Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) kept the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) unchanged at 3.00% at its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on 13 July. GDP growth is projected to be higher in 2017 whilst the inflation rate is expected to moderate in 2H2017 amid the waning effect of global cost factors. - On a weekly basis, the Ringgit firmed by 0.1% to close at RM4.29 against the US$. On a year-to-date basis, the Ringgit strengthened by 4.5% against the greenback. Page 2 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Market Wall Street
3. - Industrial production growth firmed to 4 .6% in May from 4.2% in April on the back of higher manufacturing and electricity output. YoY % 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Industrial Production Index (LHS) Jan-17 14.0 12.0 4.6% 10.0 4.2% 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 Mar-17 May-17 Electricity Output (RHS) Manufacturing Output (RHS) - Led by moderating transportation and housing costs, the inflation rate eased to 1.6% in June from 1.9% in May. The core inflation rate (excluding energy & food prices) was sustained at 1.7% over the same period. - Retail sales growth moderated to a 10-month low of 2.8% in June from 4.1% in May due to slower sales of autos and food services. - Industrial production growth inched up to 2.0% in June from 1.9% in May amid higher output from the mining and construction sectors. - Export growth rose to a 3-month high of 11.3% in June from 8.7% in May amid higher exports to the U.S. and Eurozone. Likewise, import growth gained pace to 17.2% from 14.8% over the same period. The trade surplus widened to US$42.8 billion in June from US$40.8 billion in May. - The inflation rate was sustained at 1.5% in June compared with a similar rate in May as a smaller drop in food prices offset slower growth in non-food prices. - Advanced estimates showed that Singapore’s GDP growth was sustained at 2.5% in 2Q2017 compared with a similar growth rate in 1Q2017 as moderating manufacturing activities were mitigated by higher service activities. Commodity - On a weekly basis, Brent crude oil prices rose by 4.7% to close at US$48.91/brl on the back of strong demand growth and lower U.S. crude production. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices moved 5.2% higher to close at US$46.54/brl. - The CRB Commodity Price Index, which measures a broad range of commodities such as food, metals and raw materials, inched down by 0.4% to close at 443.91 points. U.S. China Singapore Brent oil price CRB Index Level US$48.91/brl 443.91 % weekly change +4.7% -0.4% % YTD change -13.9% +4.9% Page 3 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Fig 1. Malaysia's Industrial Production Index YoY %
4. Regional & Global GDP Statistics Source: Bloomberg 2017F 6.6 6.5 5.2 4.7 2.6 2.4 2.7 2.1 2.3 3.4 1.3 2.1 1.7 2016 6.7 6.9 5.0 4.2 2.0 2.0 2.8 1.5 2.5 3.2 1.0 1.6 1.7 f=consensus forecast * 2018F 6.3 6.5 5.4 4.6 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.2 2.7 3.5 1.0 2.1 1.6 MARKET BRIEF GDP Growth (%) China Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Hong Kong Singapore South Korea Taiwan Australia Thailand Japan U.S.* Eurozone* IMF forecast Regional & Global Inflation Statistics Inflation rate (%) China Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Hong Kong Singapore South Korea Taiwan Australia Thailand Japan U.S. Eurozone 2016 2.0 1.8 3.5 2.1 2.4 -0.5 1.3 1.4 1.3 0.2 -0.1 1.3 0.2 2017F 1.9 3.2 4.3 3.8 1.9 1.0 1.9 1.0 2.2 1.4 0.5 2.1 1.6 2018F 2.2 3.3 4.4 2.5 2.5 1.5 1.9 1.3 2.2 1.7 0.8 2.2 1.5 Source: Bloomberg f=consensus forecast Regional & Global Markets’ Valuations Australia China ‘H’ Shares Hong Kong Shanghai Comp Thailand Singapore Taiwan Philippines Indonesia Japan South Korea U.S.(1) Europe Historic P/E(2) (x) 14.60 10.84 12.73 15.86 12.84 14.27 15.28 16.10 14.78 17.51 11.32 17.27(3) 13.93(3) Prospective P/E (x) 15.89 8.52 12.73 14.16 15.44 14.88 14.92 19.10 16.70 14.30 10.28 18.86 15.70 Estimated Dividend Yield (%) 4.45 3.53 3.30 1.97 2.96 3.38 3.80 1.57 2.13 2.03 1.59 2.01 3.91 Source: Bloomberg, 14 Jul 17 (1) S&P500 Index (2) 2007-2016 historical average (3) 1997-2016 historical average Page 4 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
5. Looking ahead , investors are expected to continue monitoring the pace of global economic activities as well as the next Federal Reserve meeting on 25 and 26 July 2017. On the domestic front, Malaysia’s industrial output increased by 4.3% for the first five months of 2017 compared to 3.8% for the whole of 2016. This reinforces the central bank’s view that economic growth this year will be better than last year. As at 14 July 2017, the local market traded below its historical average P/E ratio: - P/E valuation: prospective P/E ratio of 16.2x versus its 10-year historical average of 16.4x. - Dividend yield: 3.23% was above the 12-month F.D. rate of 3.11%*. The average P/E ratio of the regional markets, as proxied by the MSCI Far East ex-Japan Index, was above its 10-year historical average: - Regional P/E valuations: 13.6x versus the 10-year historical average of 13.5x. * The average F.D. rate offered by four key domestic banks Bursa Securities’ Market Valuations FBM KLCI PER (x) Dividend Yield 3mth InterBk 12mth FD, % ^ 14 Jul 17 1,755 16.19 3.23% 3.43% 3.10% 2007-2016 historical average 7 Jul 17 1,760 16.19 3.23% 3.43% 3.10% Source: Bloomberg Bursa Securities' 10-Year P/E Ratio MSCI FE ex-Japan's 10-Year P/E Ratio 25 20 14 Jul 17 P/E: 16.2x 14 Jul 17 P/E: 13.6x P/E Ratio (x) 20 P/E Ratio (x) 10-yr av.^ 16.43 3.56% 3.27% - 15 10 15 10 Average: 16.4x 5 Average: 13.5x 5 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Page 5 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF 3. Market Outlook & Valuations Despite the potential uptrend in U.S. interest rates and political uncertainties causing delays in the reform agenda of the U.S. administration, investors continue to be encouraged by the positive growth momentum of the U.S. and global economies. The resilient pace of China’s exports, which rose by 8.5% in the first half of 2017, has also brightened the outlook for regional exports.
6. 4 . Bond Market Commentary & Outlook - For the week ended 14 July 2017, the U.S. Treasury (UST) market rebounded with yields moving lower on the back of softer U.S. inflation data. The 10-year UST yield fell by 6 basis points (bps) to close at 2.33% over the week. Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) - The MGS benchmark yields ended the week on a stable note with the yields of medium- and longer-tenured issues remaining unchanged amid a resilient Ringgit. The 10-year MGS yield was unchanged at 3.97% over the week. Local Corporate Bonds & Bond Funds’ Performance - Over the week, the bond funds registered positive performances on the back of resilient corporate bond prices. U.S. Treasuries (UST) Foreign Exchange Weekly Changes of Selected Currencies versus the US$ Currency per Weekly % US$ change Australian Dollar 1.29 +2.1 Indonesia Rupiah 13,332 +0.6 Pound Sterling 0.77 +0.6 Singapore Dollar 1.37 +0.5 Japanese Yen 113.22 +0.4 Chinese Yuan 6.78 +0.2 Ringgit 4.29 +0.1 Euro 0.88 +0.03 Dollar Index* 95.15 -0.9 YTD % change +7.3 +0.7 +5.4 +5.0 +3.2 +2.4 +4.5 +8.2 -6.9 Source: Bloomberg *An index of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. Bond Market Outlook - In the medium term, global bond investors will continue to assess the potential impact on the global bond market stemming from the U.S. administration’s pro-growth economic policies, the U.S. interest rate outlook and the Federal Reserve’s plan to normalise its balance sheet this year. - As for the Malaysian bond market, market participants will be closely monitoring the movement of global bond yields and the pace of further Federal funds rate hikes in 2H2017, which will be mainly influenced by the strength of the U.S. economy. Page 6 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Commentary
7. Change in Interest Rates & Bond Yields KLIBOR U.S. T Bill U.S. T Note MGS 'AAA' Corp 'AA' Corp U.S. T Note MGS 'AAA' Corp. 'AA' Corp U.S. T Bond MGS 'AAA' Corp. 'AA' Corp 14 Jul 17 7 Jul 17 3-Month Interest Rates 3.43 3.43 1.03 1.03 3-Year 1.55 1.59 3.38 3.40 4.28 4.26 4.53 4.51 5-Year 1.87 1.95 3.75 3.75 4.37 4.36 1.87 1.95 10-Year 2.33 2.39 3.97 3.97 4.70 4.71 4.95 4.96 % change* - MARKET BRIEF (in %) -4 -2 +2 +2 -8 +1 -8 -6 -1 -1 *in basis points Source: Bank Negara Malaysia Page 7 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
8. Performance of Equity and Balanced Funds * Local Funds PSF PGF PIX PINDGF PAGF PRSF PBF P SmallCap PEF PFSF PDSF PSSF PSA30F POGF PBBF PBGF PBGSQF PSSCF PBMAC PBBSQF PSMACF PSMAGF PSTGF PBDBEF PSTEF PAVGEF PGRBF PBSCGF PRSSQF PEMOF PBMAGRF 14 Jul 17 7 Jul 17 0.5429 0.4855 0.6663 0.5281 0.6449 0.6106 0.6693 0.9403 0.2684 0.2825 0.2756 0.3024 0.2981 0.3161 0.7844 0.7961 0.2752 0.3417 0.2600 0.2622 0.2866 0.2753 0.2971 0.2751 0.2980 0.2920 0.2779 0.2731 0.2658 0.2757 0.2681 0.5431 0.4867 0.6705 0.5263 0.6447 0.6125 0.6705 0.9516 0.2690 0.2840 0.2756 0.3029 0.2983 0.3182 0.7851 0.7920 0.2758 0.3435 0.2599 0.2628 0.2863 0.2756 0.2943 0.2757 0.2972 0.2917 0.2765 0.2728 0.2669 0.2773 0.2678 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark -0.04 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.4 +0.3 -0.3 +0.03 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -1.2 -1.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.7 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.7 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 +0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -1.4 +0.04 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 +0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 +1.0 +0.7 -0.2 -0.3 +0.3 -0.7 +0.1 -0.3 +0.5 -0.1 +0.1 -1.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 +0.1 -0.2 PFES PRSEC PGSF PFEDF PFEBF PTAF PCSF PFEPRF PSEASF PFECTF PCTF PFETIF PWEF PAUEF PFA30F PINDOSF PBAEF PBADF PBEPEF PBCPEF PBCAEF PBCAUEF PBSGA30EF PBAPENTF PBAREIF PBADBF PBINDOBF PSGEF PBAEGF PBDYNAF PBGEF PSTBLF POEF PBADSQF PNVGF P Ittikal PIEF PIOF PIMXAF PIDF PISSF PISTF PIOGF PISEF PIA40GF PISVF PITGF PITSEQ PBIEF PISGIF PESMACF PESMAGF PIENTEF PIAVGEF PIGRBF PIEMOF PBISCF 7 Jul 17 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark 0.8403 0.3356 0.4457 0.2470 0.3641 0.2600 0.3450 0.2753 0.3792 0.2904 0.2968 0.3033 0.3012 0.2664 0.2398 0.2587 0.3130 0.2596 0.2885 0.2851 0.2897 0.2513 0.8406 0.3357 0.4457 0.2475 0.3644 0.2615 0.3465 0.2774 0.3808 0.2890 0.2963 0.3037 0.3015 0.2668 0.2407 0.2577 0.3129 0.2592 0.2880 0.2841 0.2902 0.2513 -0.04 -0.03 -0.2 -0.1 -0.6 -0.4 -0.8 -0.4 +0.5 +0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 +0.4 +0.03 +0.2 +0.2 +0.4 -0.2 - -0.7 -0.7 -1.7 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -1.4 -0.7 -0.7 -0.2 -0.6 -1.2 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 -0.7 -0.4 -1.2 -1.7 Public Mutual's Private Retirement Scheme Funds Performance PRS-GRF PRS-MDF PRS-CVF PRS-IGRF PRS-IMDF PRS-ICVF PRS-EQF PRS-SEQF PRS-ISEQF 14 Jul 17 7 Jul 17 0.2614 0.2656 0.2698 0.2909 0.2753 0.2637 0.2855 0.3018 0.2758 0.2582 0.2623 0.2694 0.2882 0.2727 0.2637 0.2839 0.2951 0.2709 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +1.2 +1.3 +0.1 +0.9 +1.0 +0.6 +2.3 +1.8 +1.6 +1.4 +0.1 +0.6 +0.6 +0.1 -0.2 +1.8 +0.6 7 Jul 17 0.3320 0.2694 0.3274 0.3131 0.2886 0.3581 0.3192 0.3136 0.3047 0.2902 0.3344 0.3663 0.2366 0.2884 0.4281 0.3158 0.3112 0.3072 0.2939 0.3166 0.3964 0.2870 0.3022 0.3482 0.3385 0.2931 0.2955 0.3154 0.3186 1.3110 0.3283 0.2867 0.2954 0.2687 0.2650 0.3196 0.2614 0.3217 0.3049 0.2812 0.3452 0.3098 0.3080 0.3022 0.2857 0.3203 0.3592 0.2335 0.2786 0.4101 0.3151 0.3019 0.3051 0.2866 0.3034 0.3841 0.2751 0.2970 0.3387 0.3350 0.2867 0.2945 0.3099 0.3125 1.2621 0.3231 0.2813 0.2882 0.2666 0.2565 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +3.9 +3.5 +3.1 +3.2 +1.8 +1.8 +2.7 +2.3 +2.6 +2.1 +3.7 +2.5 +3.0 +3.8 +1.8 +1.8 +0.8 +0.9 +1.6 +1.4 +4.4 +3.8 +2.0 +1.5 +1.3 +1.3 +3.5 +3.7 +4.4 +4.2 +0.2 +0.4 +3.1 +2.8 +0.7 +0.8 +2.5 +2.8 +4.4 +4.2 +3.2 +3.0 +4.3 +4.3 +1.8 +2.7 +2.8 +3.0 +1.0 +1.1 +2.2 +2.2 +0.3 +0.4 +1.8 +2.7 +2.0 +1.9 +3.9 +2.5 +1.6 +1.5 +1.9 +1.6 +2.5 +2.3 +0.8 +0.8 +3.3 +0.1 Foreign Islamic Funds Local Islamic Funds 14 Jul 17 14 Jul 17 PAIF PIADF PIATAF PCIF PIALEF PBIAEF PBIASSF PIOEF 14 Jul 17 7 Jul 17 0.3621 0.3388 0.3632 0.2945 0.3669 0.3001 0.2793 0.2805 0.3528 0.3301 0.3548 0.2880 0.3574 0.2924 0.2730 0.2754 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +2.6 +2.6 +2.4 +2.3 +2.7 +2.6 +2.3 +1.9 +1.9 +1.5 +1.6 +2.0 +2.2 +1.7 +2.1 +0.9 Public Mutual's Bond Funds Performance P BOND PI BOND PIN BOND PEBF PSBF PIEBF PISBF PIINCOME PBFI PBIBF PBINFBF PIINFBF PSTBF PISTBF PSKF PBBOND PBSKF PENTBF PBASF 14 Jul 17 7 Jul 17 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark 0.9655 0.9909 1.0033 1.0374 1.0100 1.1053 1.0543 1.0637 1.0376 1.1164 1.0599 1.0612 1.0603 1.0489 1.0657 1.0656 1.0720 1.0386 1.0524 0.9649 0.9902 1.0027 1.0388 1.0096 1.1046 1.0539 1.0628 1.0370 1.1158 1.0589 1.0603 1.0598 1.0482 1.0650 1.0650 1.0713 1.0380 1.0518 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 -0.1 +0.04 +0.1 +0.04 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.05 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 Public Mutual's Money Market Funds Performance PMMF PIMMF PeCDF PeICDF PBCMF PBCPF PBICMF PBICPF *Buying price 14 Jul 17 7 Jul 17 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark 1.0083 1.0118 1.0014 1.0014 1.0017 1.0016 0.9996 1.0011 1.0077 1.0112 1.0008 1.0008 1.0011 1.0010 0.9990 1.0006 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.05 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 Page 8 of 13 FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW Foreign Funds
9. 3 Year Annualised Return Ended 30 June 2017 Fund Volatility Class (FVC) 3-Year Fund Volatility Factor (FVF) # (PAGF) (PDSF) (PEF) (PGF) (PIX) (PINDGF) (POGF) (PRSF) (PSF) (PSSF) (PSA30F) (PBGF) (PBGSQF) 1.4 0.6 3.0 3.2 0.7 3.7 1.8 0.6 2.1 3.8 -0.1 4.1 0.5 Moderate Low Low Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate 6.5 6.0 6.1 6.0 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.6 6.8 6.4 7.9 6.8 7.6 (PIA40GF) (PIDF) (PIEF) (PIOGF) (PISSF) (PISEF) (P ITTIKAL) (PITSEQ) (PISVF) (PBIEF) 1.2 1.7 1.7 -0.2 -1.5 -0.3 1.7 1.4 2.6 2.4 Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate 6.5 5.8 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.3 5.7 6.3 6.3 6.8 (PFSF) (P SmallCap) (PSSCF) (PIOF) (PISTF) (PITGF) 3.2 7.8 3.3 7.1 6.0 0.1 Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate High High 7.3 8.3 7.2 7.7 8.4 8.5 (PAUEF) (PCSF) (PCTF) (PFA30F) (PFECTF) (PFEDF) (PFEPRF) (PFES) (PFETIF) (PINDOSF) (PRSEC) (PSGEF) (PSEASF) (PBAEGF) (PBADF) (PBAEF) (PBAPENTF) (PBCAEF) (PBCAUEF) (PBCPEF) (PBSGA30EF) 3.6 19.9 13.7 17.9 4.4 13.1 7.4 14.7 8.8 10.2 10.8 8.1 8.2 9.3 8.5 14.1 10.0 17.1 13.8 20.9 7.3 Very High Very High Very High Very High High High High Very High High Very High High High High High Moderate High Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High 12.5 13.9 14.6 11.3 10.1 10.5 8.6 11.9 8.8 14.2 10.4 10.9 8.3 10.3 7.5 9.7 11.3 12.1 13.4 14.3 11.2 Fund Name I. EQUITY FUNDS Non Regional Funds Public Aggressive Growth Fund Public Dividend Select Fund Public Equity Fund Public Growth Fund Public Index Fund Public Industry Growth Fund Public Optimal Growth Fund Public Regular Savings Fund Public Savings Fund Public Sector Select Fund Public Select Alpha-30 Fund PB Growth Fund PB Growth Sequel Fund Islamic Non Regional Funds Public Islamic Alpha-40 Growth Fund Public Islamic Dividend Fund Public Islamic Equity Fund Public Islamic Optimal Growth Fund Public Islamic Sector Select Fund Public Islamic Select Enterprises Fund Public Ittikal Fund Public Ittikal Sequel Fund Public Islamic Savings Fund PB Islamic Equity Fund Small & Mid Cap Funds Public Focus Select Fund Public SmallCap Fund Public Strategic SmallCap Fund Public Islamic Opportunities Fund Public Islamic Select Treasures Fund Public Islamic Treasures Growth Fund Regional Funds Public Australia Equity Fund Public China Select Fund Public China Titans Fund Public Far-East Alpha-30 Fund Public Far-East Consumer Themes Fund Public Far-East Dividend Fund Public Far-East Property & Resorts Fund Public Far-East Select Fund Public Far-East Telco & Infrastructure Fund Public Indonesia Select Fund Public Regional Sector Fund Public Singapore Equity Fund Public South-East Asia Select Fund PB Asia Emerging Growth Fund PB ASEAN Dividend Fund PB Asia Equity Fund PB Asia Pacific Enterprises Fund PB China ASEAN Equity Fund PB China Australia Equity Fund PB China Pacific Equity Fund PB Singapore Advantage-30 Equity Fund Page 9 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW Return and Volatility Measures for Public Mutual’s Funds For the 3 Years Period Ended 30 June 2017
10. Fund Volatility Class (FVC) 3-Year Fund Volatility Factor (FVF) # (PAIF) (PCIF) (PIADF) (PIALEF) (PBIAEF) (PBIASSF) 10.9 11.3 9.1 10.7 10.6 10.0 High Very High High High High High 9.3 10.5 8.5 10.2 9.3 9.4 (PGSF) (PWEF) (PBEPEF) 12.0 -0.4 11.5 High High High 9.5 10.3 9.4 (PBF) (PFEBF) (PTAF) (PBAREIF) (PBADBF) (PBBF) (PBBSQF) (PBDYNAF) (PBINDOBF) (PBMAC) 3.3 7.9 14.3 6.2 3.6 3.9 1.7 8.3 9.3 3.3 Low Moderate High Low Moderate Low Low High Very High Low 4.4 7.7 9.0 5.8 8.1 4.3 4.3 9.3 10.9 3.4 (PIMXAF) (PIATAF) -0.4 9.9 Low High 5.6 9.0 (PBOND) (PEBF) (PENTBF) (PIN Bond) (PSBF) (PSTBF) (PBBOND) (PBFI) (PBINFBF) 4.4 4.3 4.4 3.9 3.8 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.6 Very Low Very Low Very Low n.a. Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Low 1.0 1.5 1.3 n.a. 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.8 (PI BOND) (PIEBF) (PI INCOME) (PIINFBF) (PISBF) (PISTBF) (PSKF) (PBASF) (PBIBF) (PBSKF) 4.9 4.4 3.8 4.8 4.1 4.1 4.6 5.0 4.9 4.7 Very Low Very Low Very Low Low Very Low Very Low Low Low Low Low 1.7 1.5 1.0 1.8 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.9 (PMMF) (PBCMF) (PBCPF) 3.3 3.3 3.4 Very Low Very Low Very Low 0.1 0.1 0.1 (PIMMF) (PBICMF) (PBICPF) 3.2 3.1 3.2 Very Low Very Low Very Low 0.1 0.1 0.1 Fund Name Islamic Regional Funds Public Asia Ittikal Fund Public China Ittikal Fund Public Islamic Asia Dividend Fund Public Islamic Asia Leaders Equity Fund PB Islamic Asia Equity Fund PB Islamic Asia Strategic Sector Fund Global Funds Public Global Select Fund Public Worldwide Equity Fund PB Euro Pacific Equity Fund II. BALANCED FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Balanced Fund Public Far-East Balanced Fund Public Tactical Allocation Fund PB Asia Real Estate Income Fund PB Australia Dynamic Balanced Fund PB Balanced Fund PB Balanced Sequel Fund PB Dynamic Allocation Fund PB Indonesia Balanced Fund PB Mixed Asset Conservative Fund Islamic Funds Public Islamic Mixed Asset Fund Public Islamic Asia Tactical Allocation Fund III. BOND FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Bond Fund Public Enhanced Bond Fund Public Enterprises Bond Fund Public Institutional Bond Fund Public Select Bond Fund Public Strategic Bond Fund PB Bond Fund PB Fixed Income Fund PB Infrastructure Bond Fund Islamic Funds Public Islamic Bond Fund Public Islamic Enhanced Bond Fund Public Islamic Income Fund Public Islamic Infrastructure Bond Fund Public Islamic Select Bond Fund Public Islamic Strategic Bond Fund Public Sukuk Fund PB Aiman Sukuk Fund PB Islamic Bond Fund PB Sukuk Fund IV. MONEY MARKET FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Money Market Fund PB Cash Management Fund PB Cash Plus Fund Islamic Funds Public Islamic Money Market Fund PB Islamic Cash Management Fund PB Islamic Cash Plus Fund Page 10 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW 3 Year Annualised Return Ended 30 June 2017
11. Fund Volatility Class (FVC) 3-Year Fund Volatility Factor (FVF) # (PRS-GRF) (PRS-MDF) (PRS-CVF) 0.8 1.5 3.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. (PRS-IGRF) (PRS-IMDF) (PRS-ICVF) 4.6 2.6 3.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Fund Name V. PRS FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Mutual PRS Growth Fund Public Mutual PRS Moderate Fund Public Mutual PRS Conservative Fund Islamic Funds Public Mutual PRS Islamic Growth Fund Public Mutual PRS Islamic Moderate Fund Public Mutual PRS Islamic Conservative Fund * PB series of funds are highlighted to differentiate them from the Public series of funds # Based on the fund’s portfolio returns as at 31 May 2017 (Source: Lipper) Annualised Return = compounded annual rate of return of the fund over the specific period. The Volatility Factor (VF) means there is a possibility for the fund in generating an upside return or downside return around this VF. The Volatility Class (VC) is assigned by Lipper based on quintile ranks of VF for qualified funds. VF is subject to monthly revision and VC is revised every six months. The volatility banding for the “Very Low”, “Low”, “Moderate”, “High” and “Very High” VCs as at 31 December 2016 are 0.000 ≤ VF ≤ 1.785, 1.785 < VF ≤ 5.965, 5.965 < VF ≤ 8.015, 8.015 < VF ≤ 10.605 and VF more than 10.605 respectively. For this period to 30 June 2017 the VCs for the funds are based on the VFs of the respective funds as at 31 December 2016. The fund’s portfolio may have changed since this date and there is no guarantee that the fund will continue to have the same VF or VC in the future. Presently, only funds launched in the market for at least 36 months will display the VF and its VC. Page 11 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW 3 Year Annualised Return Ended 30 June 2017
12. Glossary Definition Price Earnings Ratio The Price Earnings Ratio (PER) is the ratio of a company's current share price compared to its earnings per share. The PER of the market is derived from the aggregate market capitalisation divided by the total net profits of the listed companies in the relevant market. Dividend yield is the ratio of a company’s dividend per share to its stock price. The dividend yield of the market is computed as the total gross dividends of the market divided by the aggregate market capitalisation. A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period. The inflation rate measures the change in the general level of prices for goods and services. Industrial Production Index (IPI) is an economic indicator which shows the production of output from industrial activities such as mining, manufacturing and utilities. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a survey-based index that indicates the economic health of the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates that manufacturing activities are expanding while a reading below 50 indicates that manufacturing activities are contracting. The consumer confidence index measures the level of consumers’ sentiment regarding the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. An improving trend in the consumer confidence index suggests that consumer spending may be rising. A fiscal deficit arises when a government's total expenditures exceed the revenue that it collects. The Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) is an overnight interest rate set by Bank Negara Malaysia. It is the interest rate that a borrower bank has to pay to a lending bank for the funds borrowed. Increasing the OPR will result in higher interest rates for the economy. There are two main yield calculations. (1) Current yield is calculated by dividing a bond’s coupon by its market price or valuation. A bond’s yield moves inversely to its price. (2) Yield-to-maturity is the return attributable to investors if the bond is held to maturity. A government policy that aims to reduce the budget deficit over time. This is implemented through measures to increase taxes and/or reduce government spending. In general, the lower the budget deficit, the lower the potential supply of government bonds to be issued to finance the government’s budget deficit. Dividend yield GDP Inflation IPI PMI Consumer Confidence Index Fiscal deficit OPR Bond yields Fiscal consolidation Page 12 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
13. THE CONTENTS OF THIS REPORT ARE STRICTLY FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY AND NO PART OF THIS REPORT IS TO BE CONSTRUED AS AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO INVEST IN PUBLIC MUTUAL ’S FUNDS. This Weekly Wrap report summarises the movement of the equity and bond markets as well as the funds’ performance for the period under review and is intended for circulation to the unitholders of Public Mutual. The Market Brief is prepared based on material compiled from data considered to be reliable at the time of writing, but Public Mutual does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. The Fund Performance Review summarises the fund’s weekly performance compared against its benchmark. The fund’s 3-year return together with its volatility class and factor (as at the end of the previous month) are shown to give readers a better perspective of the fund’s longer term performance and its risk. Readers should note that past performance of a fund is not an indication of its future performance. No part of this report may be shared, reproduced, distributed, transmitted, displayed or published in any manner without the written consent of Public Mutual. Public Mutual does not accept any liability, be it directly, indirectly or consequential losses or damages that may arise from any reliance based on this report. Page 13 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.