MENA Market Report - 8 June

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Thursday , June 08, 2017 Overview Regional Markets: MENA markets continued the weakness as investors remained concerned about the political crisis and its impact on the regional economies. Further, the weakness in oil prices is also weighing on regional markets coupled with no developments or resolution in sight on diplomatic rift front between Qatar and regional peers. For the day, four indexes closed in red, while three ended in green and one remained unchanged. Amongst all the negative newsflow, Dubai remained in the limelight as the index appreciated by 2.5% for the day to recover all the losses and turn positive for the week. The index was boosted by 8.3% rise in Emaar after the company announced plans to offload one of its units in an IPO. Qatar, on the other hand, continued its third consecutive sessions of negative close as it was down by 1.0% for the day. The index has nearly lost 10.0% in the past three sessions after Saudi Arabia, UAE and Egypt cut diplomatic ties. Saudi Arabia closed marginally higher by 0.2% for the day, extending the gains to 1.2% during the past four sessions. Egypt closed flat for the day, taking a breather after three consecutive sessions of gains. Kuwait closed higher by 0.3% for the day, which helped in recovering the losses to turn positive for the week. Bahrain and Oman both closed in red as they were down by 0.3% and 0.6% respectively for the day. International Markets: US markets closed on a positive note as Dow, Nasdaq and S&P were up by 0.2%, 0.4% and 0.2% respectively. European markets closed in red as FTSE, DAX and CAC were all down by 0.6%, 0.1% and 0.1% respectively. At the time of writing this report, Asian markets have opened on a mixed note as Hang Seng and Shanghai are down by 0.01% and 0.2% respectively, while Nikkei is up by 0.1%. Headlines (WW) OECD ups global growth forecast to six-year high; downgrades US (GCC) Gulf Crisis Builds as UAE Downplays Chance of Quick Fix (WW) UK annual house price growth hits 4-year low in May (ME) Mideast sovereign funds target investment real estate (WW) China's USD 500 Billion Lifeline Swaps Cash for World-Wide Clout (AE) Emaar reports USD 10.9 billion project backlog in the UAE (WW) Chinese economy to grow 6.7% in 2017, as consumption still expands (AE) Filing tax returns in the UAE is easiest in the world (WW) China gold reserves unchanged at end-May (AE) Retailers assure uninterrupted supply of food items (WW) ECB to nudge up growth forecasts but inflation a drag (AE) UAE minister suggests embargo if Qatar doesn't change course (WW) RBI keeps key interest rate unchanged, cuts inflation projections (EG) Egypt maintains stable economic outlook (WW) US Protectionism Poses Sizable Risk to Mexico Growth (QA) Qatar Starts To Count The Cost Of Economic Standoff With Saudi Arabia And UAE (CMD) Oil is getting demolished after inventories unexpectedly swell (QA) Qatari investments in Egypt are safe (CMD) Gold, silver trade lower on profit booking (QA) Qatari economy solid for now, but banks look exposed (FX) UK elections aside, hedge funds bet pound to fall anew on Brexit (OM) Oman Development Bank funds more than 57000 projects (FX) Dollar stuck near 6-week low against yen (JO) Jordan downgrades diplomatic relations with Qatar (FI) US yields fall as risk appetite fades ahead of key events (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,406.01 2.5% 1.6% 2.0% -3.5% ˅ ˅ ˅ Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,454.14 -0.1% -0.6% 0.6% -2.0% ˅ ˅ ˄ Saudi (SASEIDX) 6,946.42 0.2% 1.2% 1.1% -3.7% ˄ ˅ ˄ Kuwait (KWSE) 6,819.70 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 18.6% ˄ ˅ ˄ Egypt (EGX30) 13,632.98 0.0% 1.2% 2.2% 10.4% ˄ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 8,965.01 -1.0% -9.8% -9.5% -14.1% ˅ ˅ ˅ Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,320.77 -0.3% -0.3% 0.1% 8.2% ˄ ˅ ˄ Oman (MSM30) 5,377.17 -0.6% -1.1% -0.8% -7.0% ˅ ˅ ˅ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 419 278 450 220 99 162 78,554 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 180 81 127 60 48 60 132,787 Saudi (SASEIDX) 328 174 213 960 811 997 435,926 Kuwait (KWSE) 32 267 343 22 74 100 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 309 277 333 59 78 89 20,321 Qatar (DSM) 21 11 10 135 91 86 108,366 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1 4 5 1 2 3 20,472 Oman (MSM30) 17 16 17 7 9 10 16,085 Index * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters ** indicates markets were closed on Sunday. 1
2. MENA Morning Report Thursday , June 08, 2017 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 PB 14.1 11.9 11.1 8.9 386.2 8.7 300 8 239.3 188.3 4 1.1 Current 489.3 12.1 11.1 12 Previous 600 1.5 2.1 1.7 1.3 - - 0.9 1.0 Bahrain Oman - 178.1 0 106.9 87.2 1.4 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Year to Date Perfomance Dividend Yield 27% 8% 18.6% 6% 5.2% 18% 5.8% 5.4% 4.5% 4.2% 10.4% 9% 8.2% 3.5% 4% 2.9% 0% 2% -9% 0.0% 0.0% Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain -2.0% -3.7% -7.0% -14.1% -18% 0% Dubai -3.5% Oman Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Thursday , June 08, 2017 Abu Dhabi Dubai Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close DoD % Volume Value COMMERCIAL BANK OF DUBAI PSC 4.50 -3.33% 249 1,139 36,540 GULF NAVIGATION HOLDING PJSC 1.51 -2.65% 840 1,286 10,157 9,204 DUBAI ISLAMIC INSURANCE 0.95 -1.80% 3,820 3,643 2,710 3,758 DAR AL TAKAFUL PJSC 1.11 -0.90% 1,473 1,643 3.14% 11,414 32,259 EMIRATES NBD BANK PJSC 8.02 -0.25% 1,133 9,096 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) ABU DHABI NATIONAL FOR BUILDING 0.54 11.11% 10 5 GULF CEMENT CO PSC 0.96 -6.25% 60 60 DANA GAS PJSC 0.46 10.87% 111,974 48,983 SHARJAH ISLAMIC BANK PJSC 1.38 -2.17% 40 56 RAK PROPERTIES PJSC 0.58 5.17% 18,681 10,569 FIRST ABU DHABI BANK PJSC 10.65 -1.41% 4,027 43,198 INVEST BANK PSC 2.35 3.40% 50 116 UNION NATIONAL BANK PJSC 4.84 -1.24% 536 2,611 INTERNATIONAL FISH FARMING 1.45 2.76% 1,061 1,517 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) DEVELOPMENT WORKS FOOD CO 85.20 9.74% 1 54 AL BAHA INVESTMENT AND DEVELOP 27.70 -4.69% 2,606 73,950 AL RAJHI COMPANY FOR COOP 49.25 4.57% 843 40,619 SAUDI CEMENT CO SJSC 53.30 -3.00% 178 9,645 ETIHAD ATHEEB TELECOM 8.60 4.07% 956 8,057 RAYDAN COMPANY CJSC 23.00 -2.17% 12 278 SAUDI CERAMIC CO SJSC 28.65 4.01% 608 17,081 UNITED INTERNATIONAL 21.82 -1.92% 461 10,150 FAWAZ ABDULAZIZ ALHOKAIR CO SJSC 37.10 2.56% 143 5,247 ARAB SEA INFORMATION SYSTEMS 14.40 -1.53% 23 338 Top Gainers Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) 73.60 19.97% 2 0 METAL AND RECYCLING CO KSCP 99.00 -14.14% 32 3 AUTOMATED SYSTEMS CO KPSC 225.23 17.66% 19 4 SAFAT GLOBAL HOLDING CO 28.90 -8.30% 137 4 NATIONAL PETROLEUM SERVICES 1410.00 7.09% 2 3 AL MASSALEH REAL ESTATE CO KSCP 39.90 -4.76% 3 0 KUWAIT RESORTS COMPANY KPSC 77.00 6.88% 0 0 PRIVATIZATION HOLDING CO KPSC 49.00 -3.88% 42 2 NATIONAL INDUSTRIES COMPANY 190.00 5.26% 3 0 NATIONAL RANGES CO KPSC 28.00 -3.21% 166 5 Close DoD % Volume Value Close DoD % Volume Value 43.44 9.69% 319 13,244 GLAXOSMITHKLINE SAE 13.55 -9.89% 3 44 MODERN WATERPROOFING CO SAE 0.67 8.96% 591 380 EL EBOUR COMPANY FOR RE 4.84 -4.55% 5 23 EZZ STEEL CO SAE 18.75 7.73% 4,198 75,891 MARIDIVE AND OIL SERVICES SAE 0.23 -4.35% 5 1 GOLDEN COAST EL SOKHNA COMPANY 5.01 7.19% 348 1,687 BELTONE FINANCIAL HOLDING SAE 10.63 -3.76% 215 2,335 MISR CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES CO SAE 9.17 6.87% 238 2,109 HOUSING AND DEVELOPMENT BANK 47.50 -3.49% 29 1,424 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) DLALA BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT 20.70 4.25% 120 2,426 QATAR ISLAMIC BANK QPSC 96.90 -8.15% 473 47,862 QATAR NAVIGATION QSC 62.50 4.00% 434 26,576 MEDICARE GROUP QSC 81.70 -8.08% 46 3,904 QATAR INSURANCE CO SAQ 64.00 3.13% 78 4,899 GULF WAREHOUSING CO QSC 41.40 -7.00% 209 8,982 DOHA INSURANCE CO QSC 14.02 3.07% 23 319 QATAR ISLAMIC INSURANCE CO QSC 58.00 -5.34% 0 4 AAMAL CO QSC 10.78 1.95% 47 498 QATAR FUEL QSC 108.20 -4.81% 214 23,718 Top Gainers Close DoD % Volume Value EMAAR PROPERTIES PJSC 7.00 8.57% 0 420,381 DRAKE AND SCULL INTERNATIONAL 0.38 5.26% 0 AMLAK FINANCE PJSC 0.93 5.17% SHUAA CAPITAL PSC 1.42 4.93% DAMAC PROPERTIES DUBAI CO PSC 2.87 Top Gainers Kuwait Saudi Arabia Top Gainers AJWAN GULF REAL ESTATE CO KSCP Top Gainers Qatar Egypt NATIONAL CO FOR MAIZE PRODUCTS Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Thursday , June 08, 2017 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 79,360 99.20 0.6% 8.4% 3,648 96,514 102.50 76.00 15 1.8 4.0% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 41,559 17.55 0.3% -6.6% 1,249 5,966 20.20 17.20 17 3.4 4.6% 3 Saudi Telecom Company SJSC SA 37,600 70.50 0.4% 0.0% 84 1,572 74.00 51.00 0 0.0 0.0% 4 Qatar National Bank SAQ QA 33,859 133.50 -1.0% -9.9% 677 24,835 157.27 122.82 10 1.8 2.4% 5 First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC AE 31,156 10.50 -1.4% 5.1% 4,027 11,514 11.55 7.87 10 1.2 4.3% 6 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp SA 27,560 63.60 0.6% 1.0% 2,755 46,720 67.50 48.60 12 2.0 3.5% 7 Saudi Electricity Company SJSC SA 24,866 22.38 -0.4% -0.1% 1,186 7,077 25.80 14.30 11 1.3 3.1% 8 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 23,280 43.65 0.8% 2.5% 459 5,343 45.00 32.00 9 1.4 3.7% 9 DP World Ltd AE 19,331 23.29 0.4% 33.0% 1,505 9,544 23.85 15.53 20 2.2 1.6% 10 Almarai Co SJSC SA 17,280 81.00 0.6% 18.2% 25 539 82.40 51.50 32 5.1 1.1% 11 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 16,828 67.90 0.1% -9.2% 51 930 76.00 46.00 72 6.2 0.0% 12 Industries Qatar QSC QA 16,280 98.00 0.0% -16.6% 98 2,624 122.00 94.00 19 1.9 0.0% 13 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 14,816 7.60 8.6% 6.6% 62,522 129,383 7.79 6.07 10 1.3 2.0% 14 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 12,983 665.00 -1.6% 7.4% 1,612 3,538 723.81 523.81 13 1.3 4.3% 15 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 12,962 41.60 -0.1% 6.7% 148 1,639 44.00 27.80 689 1.9 0.0% 16 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 12,106 8.00 -0.2% -5.8% 1,133 2,468 9.00 7.60 7 0.8 5.0% 17 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 12,053 22.60 -1.1% -7.2% 212 1,277 25.20 15.90 9 1.0 4.2% 18 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 10,403 7.35 0.1% 6.5% 4,254 8,513 7.68 5.66 9 1.3 5.4% 19 Kingdom Holding Co SA 9,883 10.00 -0.8% 0.0% 10 26 12.95 9.90 69 1.3 5.0% 20 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 9,200 23.00 0.9% -8.0% 151 925 25.90 16.40 9 1.1 3.0% 21 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 9,188 483.00 0.2% -1.6% 1,545 2,461 572.73 400.00 13 1.6 3.2% 22 Emaar Malls Group PJSC AE 9,072 2.56 1.6% -2.3% 1,941 1,353 3.00 2.47 18 2.0 0.0% 23 Banque Saudi Fransi SJSC SA 8,564 26.65 0.0% 2.1% 24 174 27.70 18.00 9 1.0 3.9% 24 Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co SJSC SA 8,460 56.40 -0.9% 4.4% 42 639 61.75 37.00 13 2.0 5.3% 25 Ooredoo QSC QA 8,321 94.60 0.0% 0.0% 106 2,754 116.10 84.30 16 1.4 0.0% 26 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 8,288 10.36 -0.2% -10.3% 214 590 11.80 8.55 10 0.8 6.3% 27 Emirates Islamic Bank PJSC AE 8,251 5.58 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 11.95 1.57 102 4.4 0.0% 28 Masraf Al Rayan QSC QA 8,032 39.00 -2.5% 3.7% 1,123 12,028 45.40 33.05 14 2.5 5.1% 29 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 7,983 10.96 0.0% -27.5% 354 1,066 20.24 10.72 13 0.9 4.6% 30 Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC AE 7,805 5.80 0.2% 4.1% 4,237 6,692 6.29 4.90 9 1.2 7.8% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 547,328 3.0% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated under the DIFC Companies Law and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). The information contained in this report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or the solicitation of an offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for professionals with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority. Moreover, none of the report is intended as a prospectus within the meaning of the applicable laws of any jurisdiction and none of the report is directed to any person in any country in which the distribution of such report is unlawful. This report provides general information only. The information and opinions in the report constitute a judgment as at the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. The information may therefore not be accurate or current. The information and opinions contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express, or implied, is made by AMCML, as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness and AMCML does also not warrant that the information is up to date. Moreover, you should be aware of the fact that investments in undertakings, securities or other financial instruments involve risks. Past results do not guarantee future performance. We accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of material presented in this report. This document has not been reviewed by, approved by or filed with the DFSA. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without our prior written consent. Copyright © 2015 Al Masah Capital Management Limited 4