MENA Market Report - 28 September

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , September 28, 2016 Overview Regional Markets: MENA markets closed on a negative note, in line with sentiments in global markets overnight. For the regional markets, Saudi Arabia remained the mostly actively trading index, while the rest of the markets witnessed marginal pullback. Kuwait was the only index to close up by 0.1% for the day after remaining unchanged on the previous day. Saudi Arabia witnessed sharp selloff as it was down by 3.8% for the day, extending the yearly losses to 17.1% after the government announced measures to cut the budget deficit further in form of salary cut and cancelling of bonuses, both of which are likely to dampen the consumer spending. Saudi has been taking a series of measures, which are primarily focused on reducing the budget deficit, while ensuring the liquidity is improved within the banking sector by pumping cash in the system in the form of deposits. All of the indexes as well as the stocks were down for the day, which was led by banking and petchem sector. UAE markets also closed on a negative note as Dubai was down by 0.8% and Abu Dhabi by 0.5% for the day. Egypt was down by 0.3% for the day, in line with the sentiments seen across the region. Qatar also closed lower by 0.4% for the day, erasing some of the gains seen on the previous day. Oman was down by 0.3%, while Bahrain was unchanged for the day. International Markets: US markets closed on a High as Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P were all up by 0.7%, 0.9% and 0.6% respectively for the day. On the other hand, the European markets closed mostly on a negative note as FTSE, DAX and CAC were all down by 0.2%, 0.3% and 0.2% for the day. At the time of writing this report, Asian markets have opened on a bearish note as Hang Seng, Nikkei and Shanghai were all down by 0.6%, 1.5% and 0.3% respectively for the day. Headlines (WW) Fed's Williams Says US Economy Can Handle Rate Hike (GCC) Improving Access to Finance Is Critical For Diversification Of GCC Economies (WW) US Home Prices Rise Slightly Less Than Forecast (GCC) Bahrain, Oman Offer Hope as GCC Online Jobs Market Slumps (WW) Britain Says Economy Needs an Infrastructure Upgrade after Political Drama (SA) Saudi Chops Wage, Benefit Bill in Delicate Pursuit Of Austerity (WW) UK Retail Sales Suffer September Setback (SA) KSA 3rd Most Competitive in the Arab World (WW) China Industrial Profits Rise Most In 3 Years, Economy Shows Signs of Stabilizing (SA) Saudi Arabia's Banks to Get a USD 5.3 Billion Injection (WW) China September Official Factory Gauge Seen Showing 2nd Month of Growth (AE) UAE Retains Tops Spot Competitiveness among Middle East Economies (WW) China Economy Seen Growing 6.6% in Q4 (AE) UAE-China Bilateral Trade Down 17% to USD 20 Billion (WW) China's Retail Sales Forecast to Grow 10.3% In 2016 (EG) Capital Intelligence Affirms National Bank of Egypt at 'b-/b' (CMD) Oil Down 3% as Saudi, Iran Dash Hopes for An Algiers Deal (QA) Qatar PPI Falls 1.5% in July (CMD) Gold Slips As Dollar and Stocks Gain After Us Debate (QA) Qatar Set to Remain GCC's 'fastest-Growing Economy' (FX) Dollar Gains Against Euro on Deutsche Bank Fears, Falls Vs Mexican Peso (QA) Qatar Slips In Expat Quality Of Life Rankings Again (FX) Yen near One-Month High, Euro on Defensive over European Bank Worries (QA) Qatar to Invest USD 40 Billion in Hospitality Sector (FI) Bond Market Inflation Outlook Jumps as Goldman Says More to Come (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,466.56 -0.8% -1.3% -1.1% 10.0% ˅ ˄ ˄ Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,471.68 -0.5% -1.0% 0.0% 3.8% ˅ ˄ ˄ Saudi (SASEIDX) 5,730.69 -3.8% -3.7% -5.7% -17.1% ˅ ˅ ˅ Kuwait (KWSE) 5,412.37 0.1% 0.1% -0.1% -3.6% ˅ ˄ ˄ Egypt (EGX30) 7,948.93 -0.3% 0.4% -2.6% 13.5% ˅ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 10,472.93 -0.4% 0.6% -4.7% 0.4% ˅ ˄ ˄ Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,139.47 -0.0% 0.4% -0.2% -6.3% ˅ ˄ ˅ Oman (MSM30) 5,748.61 -0.3% -0.3% 0.2% 6.3% ˅ ˅ ˄ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 381 274 331 117 100 113 82,791 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 76 68 89 36 39 46 120,360 Saudi (SASEIDX) 262 184 233 1,067 839 1,099 369,569 Index Kuwait (KWSE) 76 64 109 25 27 34 76,068 Egypt (EGX30) 125 195 209 98 86 103 24,431 Qatar (DSM) 7 7 7 76 84 77 131,066 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 4 2 2 1 1 1 17,340 151 17 21 51 8 10 16,737 Oman (MSM30) * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters 1
2. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , September 28, 2016 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 PB 13.5 11.3 12 11.7 386.2 8.4 300 8 239.3 188.3 178.1 4 1.3 Current 489.3 10.9 10.6 9.6 Previous 600 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.6 - - 0.8 1.1 Bahrain Oman - 0 106.9 87.2 1.3 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Year to Date Perfomance Dividend Yield 8% 27% 6.3% 18% 5.6% 6% 4.8% 5.0% 4% 6.3% 3.8% 4.0% 3.9% 13.5% 10.0% 9% 0.4% 0% 2.4% -3.6% -9% -6.3% 2% -18% -17.1% 0.0% -27% 0% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , September 28, 2016 Dubai Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) SHUAA CAPITAL PSC 0.93 -2.48% 27,816 26,141 DUBAI ISLAMIC INSURANCE 0.61 -2.98% 257 158 6,157 DUBAI FINANCIAL MARKET PJSC 1.34 -2.24% 5,972 8,094 135 1,101 GULF GENERAL INVESTMENT CO PSC 0.54 -2.98% 5,731 3,125 5,000 9,250 GULF NAVIGATION HOLDING PJSC 1.17 -2.56% 3,240 3,841 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) SUDATEL TELECOM GROUP LTD 0.55 -5.45% 1,586 898 DANA GAS PJSC 0.56 -3.57% 18,175 10,366 NATIONAL MARINE DREDGING PSC 4.74 -2.95% 51 245 ARKAN BUILDING MATERIALS CO PJSC 0.80 -5.00% 3 2 AL KHAZNA INSURANCE CO PSC 0.37 -2.70% 84 32 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) AL TAYYAR TRAVEL GROUP HOLDING 33.90 -10.03% 5,057 180,974 9,522 AL ALAMIYA FOR COOP INSURANCE 26.00 -10.19% 216 5,942 2 38 AL AHLIA FOR COOP INSURANCE CO 5.35 -10.28% 1,281 7,246 1 26 ALLIANZ SAUDI FRANSI COOP INSURA 24.05 -10.19% 247 6,266 0.00% 3,636 93,438 UNITED COOPERATIVE ASSURANCE CO 12.80 -10.16% 1,152 15,573 Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Top Losers Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) SPECIALITIES GROUP HOLDING CO 99.00 7.07% 0 0 CREDIT RATING AND COLLECTION CO 30.50 -8.20% 16 0 KUWAIT CABLE VISION COMPANY 27.50 9.09% 1 0 TAMDEEN INVESTMENT CO KSCP 315.00 -4.76% 60 19 GULF INVESTMENT HOUSE KSCP 24.00 6.25% 2,852 66 NATIONAL INDUSTRIES COMPANY 210.00 -4.76% 5 1 GULF FRANCHISING HOLDING CO KSCP 26.00 9.62% 351 9 MENA REAL ESTATE CO KSCP 21.00 -4.76% 25 1 KUWAIT REMAL REAL ESTATE CO KPSC 41.50 6.02% 5,593 226 KUWAIT RESORTS COMPANY KPSC 79.00 -2.53% 263 21 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) SABAA INTERNATIONAL COMPANY 2.97 4.38% 5 15 MISR FERTILIZERS PRODUCTION CO 29.17 -5.62% 41 1,224 ALEXANDRIA MINERAL OILS CO SAE 38.42 6.64% 5,752 214,132 ARAB DRUG COMPANY FOR PHARMA 8.11 -4.93% 57 473 MISR CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES CO SAE 3.74 5.08% 41 151 ARAB ALUMINUM CO SAE 9.00 -5.44% 1 12 MOHANDES INSURANCE CO SAE 19.20 4.53% 4 77 SINAI CEMENT CO SAE 23.85 -5.41% 1 29 NATIONAL BANK OF KUWAIT EGYPT 20.51 4.58% 1 12 TRANS OCEANS TOURS SAE 0.06 -16.67% 28 2 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) MAZAYA QATAR REAL ESTATE DEVEL 13.80 1.45% 154 2,112 DOHA BANK QSC 37.40 -1.34% 55 2,057 UNITED DEVELOPMENT CO PSC 19.75 1.27% 28 555 MANNAI CORPORATION QSC 84.30 -2.73% 1 58 AL KHALEEJ TAKAFUL GROUP QSC 23.40 1.07% 13 298 QATAR INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING 42.50 -1.18% 8 344 QATARI INVESTORS GROUP QSC 50.00 3.20% 1,588 78,187 EZDAN HOLDING GROUP QSC 17.49 -1.03% 286 5,034 GULF WAREHOUSING CO QSC 54.00 3.33% 115 6,091 AL KHALIJ COMMERCIAL BANK QSC 17.30 -1.04% 8 140 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) NATIONAL CENTRAL COOLING CO PJSC 1.66 4.22% 10,330 16,801 MARKA PJSC 1.10 0.91% 1 1 ARAMEX PJSC 3.88 0.52% 1,591 EMIRATES NBD BANK PJSC 8.16 0.12% AL SAFWA ISLAMIC FINANCIAL 1.85 0.00% Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) GULF MEDICAL PROJECTS CO PSC 2.50 8.00% 1 1 NATIONAL BANK OF RAS AL KHAIMAH 5.20 3.85% 85 431 AGTHIA GROUP PJSC 6.02 4.65% 1,251 7,363 BANK OF SHARJAH PJSC 1.35 5.93% 274 359 INTERNATIONAL FISH FARMING HOLD 1.48 3.38% 75 109 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) HALWANI BROTHERS CO JSC 42.70 -0.47% 108 4,618 YANBU CEMENT CO SJSC 34.70 -0.58% 274 FALCOM PETROCHEMICAL ETF 22.20 0.00% HSBC AMANAH SAUDI 20 ETF 24.80 0.00% TIHAMA ADVERTISING AND PUBLIC 25.70 Saudi Arabia Abu Dhabi Top Gainers Egypt Kuwait Top Gainers Qatar Top Gainers Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , September 28, 2016 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 65,405 81.75 -0.9% 6.5% 6,885 150,099 92.75 59.50 15 1.5 6.7% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 47,126 19.90 -0.3% 23.6% 766 4,149 20.20 14.10 19 3.9 4.0% 3 Qatar National Bank SAQ QA 35,972 156.00 -0.6% 7.0% 141 6,045 169.80 122.50 11 1.8 1.6% 4 Saudi Telecom Co SJSC SA 29,469 55.25 -3.5% -19.0% 330 4,862 69.75 54.25 13 1.9 7.2% 5 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp SA 22,860 52.75 -3.2% 1.4% 1,837 25,837 62.75 44.70 11 1.7 2.8% 6 Saudi Electricity Co SJSC SA 19,001 17.10 -6.3% 8.6% 2,098 9,566 21.80 12.40 46 1.2 4.1% 7 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 17,761 33.30 -3.5% -34.7% 1,127 10,012 56.00 33.10 7 1.1 4.7% 8 Industries Qatar QSC QA 17,628 106.10 0.1% -4.5% 457 13,318 127.70 88.00 16 2.0 4.7% 9 DP World Ltd AE 15,189 18.30 -1.6% -9.9% 185 922 21.50 16.05 15 1.8 1.6% 10 First Gulf Bank PJSC AE 14,459 11.80 -1.3% -6.7% 1,319 4,239 14.25 9.90 9 1.6 8.5% 11 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 13,784 7.07 -0.8% 24.3% 7,322 14,097 7.46 4.22 12 1.3 2.1% 12 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 13,322 53.75 -3.6% -3.2% 806 11,556 68.75 40.80 0 5.3 0.0% 13 National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC AE 13,122 9.25 -1.0% 16.2% 311 783 10.35 6.86 10 1.1 4.9% 14 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 12,609 17.31 -1.0% 8.9% 286 1,361 20.24 12.10 27 1.6 2.9% 15 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 12,364 8.17 0.1% 10.4% 135 300 9.19 6.25 7 0.9 4.9% 16 Almarai Co SJSC SA 11,734 55.00 -2.7% -6.3% 445 6,526 66.56 40.88 22 3.6 1.6% 17 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 11,235 600.00 1.7% -19.3% 586 1,168 799.36 550.00 12 1.1 4.6% 18 Kingdom Holding Co SA 10,476 10.60 -1.9% -32.5% 870 2,458 21.20 9.80 63 1.5 4.7% 19 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 9,858 6.47 0.5% -1.8% 2,584 4,552 7.97 5.20 8 1.2 7.0% 20 Emaar Malls Group PJSC AE 9,675 2.73 -1.8% -1.1% 1,560 1,160 3.25 2.02 20 2.4 3.7% 21 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 9,349 30.00 -6.3% -9.6% 1,414 11,309 43.20 25.70 93 1.3 0.0% 22 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 9,334 17.50 -3.3% -25.1% 1,019 4,758 24.05 17.05 7 0.9 5.1% 23 Ooredoo QSC QA 8,621 98.00 -0.8% 30.7% 75 2,029 107.00 60.00 12 1.4 3.1% 24 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 8,186 470.00 1.1% -4.3% 785 1,227 545.45 395.45 13 1.4 3.3% 25 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 8,161 10.20 -1.9% -17.7% 562 1,530 14.15 10.15 8 0.8 6.9% 26 Emirates Integrated Telecomm Co AE 8,091 6.50 0.0% 27.5% 49 87 6.99 4.89 16 3.8 6.6% 27 Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Co SJSC SA 7,473 67.25 -1.8% -18.7% 180 3,237 98.25 58.00 18 4.4 8.9% 28 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 7,361 18.40 -1.9% -25.7% 295 1,446 28.50 17.35 6 0.9 4.1% 29 Masraf Al Rayan QSC QA 7,353 35.70 -0.3% -5.1% 371 3,641 44.70 28.60 13 2.3 4.9% 30 Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC AE 7,240 5.38 -0.7% -4.6% 3,861 5,656 6.35 4.51 6 1.0 7.6% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 484,220 4.5% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated under the DIFC Companies Law and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). The information contained in this report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or the solicitation of an offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for professionals with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority. 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