MENA Market Report - 27 June

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Sunday , June 26, 2016 Overview Regional Markets: MENA markets witnessed selling pressure, which was expected after free fall seen in the global markets on Friday. UK vote to leave has negatively surprised the markets, which led to sharp selling pressure across the capital markets. Investors were clueless as they were not expecting this at all and were pricing in for UK to remain in the EU. Hence, such unprecedented moves in the markets will remain, however, once the markets stabilize, investors will start buying into quality stocks which are getting punished due to the initial reaction of the move by the UK. For the region, the main concern would be the oil prices, which might remain under pressure in the short term as the referendum could lead to further challenges in the Eurozone economic activity. For the day, Egypt was the worst performer as it was down by 5.5%, mainly due to the impact on fund inflows into the country. Saudi was down by 1.1% for the day, which was dragged lower by selling pressure in energy sector stocks, especially SABIC, the market heavyweight. UAE markets closed on a negative as Dubai and Abu Dhabi both were down by 3.3% and 1.8% respectively for the day. In Dubai, the market breadth was skewed towards losers as 29 stocks closed down and 4 were up while 2 remained unchanged. Abu Dhabi was dragged lower by energy firms, especially Abu Dhabi National Energy, which has substantial exposure in Britain and Europe. Qatar was down by 1.2%, which was dragged lower by energy stocks for the day. Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman were also down by 1.1%, 0.7% and 0.6% respectively. International Markets: At the time of writing this report, Asian markets have opened on a mixed note as Nikkei and Shanghai were up by 2.3% and 1.1% respectively, while Hang Seng was down by 0.5%. Headlines (WW) Post-Brexit Global Equity Loss Of Over USD 2 Trillion Worst Ever - S&P (ME) Middle East Online Jobs Market Sees 17% Slump In May (WW) Goldman Sees Post-Brexit UK Recession; Cuts EU, US Growth Views (ME) Total Yearly Vehicle Sales In Middle East To Reach 4.4 Million In 2020 (WW) Brexit Adds Headwinds To US Companies Slowing Spending (ME) Algeria Oil And Gas Output On The Rise (WW) China May Industrial Profit Growth Slows To 3.7% Year-On-Year (GC) GCC Fuels USD 100 Billion In Airport Construction Projects (WW) China Can Keep Growth Stable This Year And In The Long Term (SA) US Businessmen Looking To Invest In Saudi SMEs (WW) China Aims To Cut Steel Capacity By 45 Million Tonnes In 2016 (SA) Saudi Non-Oil GDP Growth To Slow To 2.8% This Year (WW) Russia Secures Energy Deals, Talks Security With China As Putin Visits (SA) Saudi Bank ANB Proposes SAR 0.45 Share Dividend For H1 2016 (WW) Intel Considers Sale Of Cyber Security Business (AE) UAE Startups To Hike Global Digital GDP USD 1.5 Trillion (CMD) Oil Prices Fall As Brexit Lingers, Refined Products Glut Looms (AE) New 2030 Plan To Inject USD 44 Billion Into Dubai Economy (CMD) Gold Surges For A Second Day As Investors Seek Brexit Havens (AE) Dubai Islamic Bank Says AED 3.2 Billion Rights Issue Oversubscribed (FX) Pound Besieged, Euro Falls As Brexit Shock Lingers (EG) Egypt’s Building Materials Exports Hike 86% In May (FX) Major Currency Exchange Warns Of GBP Shortage In UAE After Brexit (KW) FDI In Kuwait Reaches USD 293 Million In 2015 (FI) Brexit Adds USD 380 Billion To Global Negative-Yielding Bond Pile (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,258.17 -3.3% -3.3% -1.7% 3.4% ˄ ˄ ˄ Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,416.68 -1.8% -1.8% 3.9% 2.5% ˄ ˅ ˄ Saudi (SASEIDX) 6,478.60 -1.1% -1.1% 0.5% -6.3% ˄ ˄ ˅ Kuwait (KWSE) 5,347.92 -1.1% -1.1% -1.0% -4.8% ˄ ˄ ˅ Egypt (EGX30) 6,851.61 -5.5% -5.5% -8.4% -2.2% ˅ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 9,842.85 -1.2% -1.2% 3.2% -5.6% ˄ ˅ ˅ Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,111.14 -0.7% -0.7% -0.0% -8.6% ˄ ˅ ˅ Oman (MSM30) 5,762.21 -0.6% -0.6% -0.8% 6.6% ˅ ˄ ˄ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 375 382 451 140 124 147 81,718 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 103 108 137 42 53 59 117,602 Saudi (SASEIDX) 358 275 296 1,324 1,322 1,417 399,377 Kuwait (KWSE) 110 149 146 41 41 41 75,302 Egypt (EGX30) 201 224 248 82 120 116 39,888 Qatar (DSM) 5 8 8 37 72 79 145,940 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1 2 2 1 1 1 17,810 Oman (MSM30) 15 24 23 6 12 13 22,512 Index * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters 1
2. MENA Morning Report Sunday , June 26, 2016 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 13.7 13.4 Previous 488.4 10.8 9.4 8.8 Current 600 12.4 11.1 12 PB 9.4 373.4 8.3 300 8 247.9 226.2 183.2 114.3 101.7 4 1.1 1.5 1.1 1.3 1.5 Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar 1.3 0.8 1.1 Bahrain Oman 1.2 0 0 Dubai Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Year to Date Perfomance Dividend Yield 10% 8% 6.4% 4.7% 5% 5.7% 5.6% 6% 4.6% 4.0% 4.4% 4.7% 6.6% 3.4% 2.5% 0% 4% 2% -10% 0% -15% Kuwait Egypt -2.2% -5% 2.4% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Average Qatar Bahrain Oman Average -6.3% -4.8% -5.6% -8.6% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Zawya estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW, BA and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Sunday , June 26, 2016 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) DAR AL TAKAFUL PJSC 0.81 15.00% 4,829 3,634 TAKAFUL EMARAT INSURANCE PJSC 2.08 6.12% 90 182 ARAB INSURANCE GROUP BSC 1.60 1.27% 2 3 Abu Dhabi Dubai Top Gainers Saudi Arabia Kuwait Egypt DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) AMLAK FINANCE PJSC 1.32 -5.71% 12,016 16,342 ARABTEC HOLDING PJSC 1.32 -5.71% 44,555 60,595 DRAKE AND SCULL INTERNATIONAL 0.52 -5.59% 24,811 13,385 ISLAMIC ARAB INSURANCE CO PSC 0.48 -5.51% 20,314 10,035 SHUAA CAPITAL PSC 0.63 -5.26% 5,044 3,266 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) ABU DHABI NATIONAL ENERGY CO 0.49 -7.55% 6,995 3,568 155 74 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) ARKAN BUILDING MATERIALS CO PJSC 0.89 5.95% 9 8 SHARJAH ISLAMIC BANK PJSC 1.53 0.66% 160 243 ABU DHABI NATIONAL FOR BUILDING 0.46 -6.12% GULF PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES 2.22 0.45% 14 30 RAS AL KHAIMAH CERAMICS PSC 3.20 -5.88% 206 680 ESHRAQ PROPERTIES CO PJSC 0.75 -5.06% 25,738 19,819 METHAQ TAKAFUL INSURANCE CO 0.76 -5.00% 2,564 2,000 Close DoD % Volume Value Top Gainers Top Losers Close DoD % Volume Value SAUDI REAL ESTATE CO SJSC 21.40 9.74% 3,023 61,814 METLIFE AIG ANB COOP INSURANCE 21.35 -4.47% 526 11,499 ARABIAN PIPES CO SJSC 14.65 9.74% 9,246 129,448 AMANA COOPERATIVE INSURANCE CO 8.55 -4.47% 2,895 25,328 ARRIYADH DEVELOPMENT CO SJSC 19.80 3.39% 2,070 40,323 GULF UNION COOP INSURANCE CO 10.75 -4.44% 947 10,413 SAUDI INDIAN CO FOR COOP INSU 18.35 3.09% 9,190 166,106 UNITED COOPERATIVE ASSURANCE CO 9.70 -4.43% 1,063 10,553 AL ALAMIYA FOR COOP INSURANCE 28.00 2.19% 636 17,623 SAUDI CABLE CO JSC 6.70 -4.29% 2,651 18,156 Top Gainers Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) GULF FRANCHISING HOLDING CO KSCP 39.00 6.85% 160 6 TAMDEEN REAL ESTATE CO KPSC 510.00 -8.93% 0 0 NOOR FINANCIAL INVESTMENT CO 41.50 6.41% 523 21 INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL ADVISORS 26.00 -8.77% 2,115 58 NATIONAL INTERNATIONAL HOLDING 60.00 5.26% 41 2 FIRST DUBAI FOR REAL ESTATE DEVEL 63.00 -7.35% 232 15 FUTURE COMMUNICATIONS CO 104.00 4.00% 0 0 SPECIALITIES GROUP HOLDING CO 69.00 -6.76% 40 3 KUWAIT & GULF LINK TRANSPORT CO 46.50 3.33% 0 0 ACICO INDUSTRIES COMPANY KSCP 280.00 -6.67% 0 0 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) EL WADI CO FOR TOURISTIC INVEST 8.54 3.39% 781 6,562 TRANS OCEANS TOURS SAE 0.06 -14.29% 518 34 GOLDEN COAST EL SOKHNA COMPANY 12.45 3.23% 103 1,265 GB AUTO SAE 2.18 -12.10% 3,435 8,003 MEDICAL PACKAGING CO SAE 0.81 2.53% 5,292 4,234 NORTH AFRICA CO FOR REAL ESTATE 1.10 -9.84% 669 776 KAHIRA PHARMA & CHEMICAL INDUS 18.88 2.22% 1 17 ORIENTAL WEAVERS CARPET CO SAE 5.17 -9.77% 779 4,244 SINAI CEMENT CO SAE 23.27 0.34% 5 105 CAIRO NATIONAL CO FOR INVESTMNT 3.51 -9.77% 4 14 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) QATAR GENERAL INSU & REINSU CO 49.75 5.85% 2 85 ALIJARAH HOLDING CO QSC 17.41 -3.87% 122 2,173 DLALA BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT 22.10 0.50% 187 4,130 QATARI GERMAN CO FOR MEDICAL 11.01 -3.76% 208 2,337 QATARI INVESTORS GROUP QSC 46.00 -3.66% 112 5,244 MESAIEED PETROCHEMICAL HOLDING 18.50 -3.09% 318 5,968 GULF INTERNATIONAL SERVICES QSC 36.50 -3.05% 714 26,484 Top Gainers Qatar Close * Top Losers Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Sunday , June 26, 2016 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corp SJSC SA 64,798 81.00 -1.5% 5.5% 5,677 122,621 105.75 59.50 13 1.5 6.8% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 44,637 18.85 -0.5% 17.1% 842 4,320 19.10 11.40 20 3.9 4.2% 3 Saudi Telecom Co SJSC SA 34,266 64.25 -1.5% -5.9% 623 10,665 73.25 52.75 14 2.2 6.2% 4 Qatar National Bank SAQ QA 32,059 139.00 -1.4% -4.7% 30 1,131 163.17 122.50 10 2.0 1.7% 5 Al Rajhi Banking and Investment Corp SA 25,024 57.75 -1.3% 11.1% 2,358 36,308 66.25 44.70 12 2.0 2.6% 6 Saudi Electricity Co SJSC SA 21,832 19.65 1.6% 24.8% 4,642 24,322 21.80 12.40 39 1.4 3.6% 7 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 21,013 39.40 -1.3% -22.7% 330 3,466 67.75 36.60 9 1.4 3.9% 8 Industries Qatar QSC QA 16,618 100.00 -0.5% -10.0% 76 2,101 144.00 88.00 14 1.9 5.0% 9 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 15,861 64.00 1.2% 15.3% 759 12,945 77.00 40.80 - 6.3 0.0% 10 First Gulf Bank PJSC AE 14,887 12.15 -2.8% -4.0% 919 3,040 15.75 9.90 9 1.7 8.2% 11 DP World Ltd AE 13,903 16.75 -2.9% -17.5% 84 385 23.90 16.40 16 1.6 1.8% 12 National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC AE 13,150 9.27 -3.3% 16.5% 2,473 6,243 11.00 6.86 10 1.2 4.9% 13 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 13,042 17.90 -2.2% 12.6% 181 888 20.00 12.10 28 1.5 2.8% 14 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 12,303 8.13 -2.3% 9.9% 301 665 10.95 6.25 7 0.9 4.9% 15 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 11,892 6.10 -4.7% 7.2% 17,773 29,520 8.16 4.22 10 1.1 2.5% 16 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 11,809 37.90 -1.6% 14.2% 1,025 10,359 45.20 25.70 86 1.6 0.0% 17 Almarai Co SJSC SA 11,520 54.00 -0.9% -8.0% 330 4,749 73.50 40.88 23 3.5 1.6% 18 Kingdom Holding Co SA 10,870 11.00 -0.9% -29.9% 365 1,070 23.50 9.80 61 1.5 4.5% 19 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 10,834 580.00 -1.7% -22.0% 4,378 8,423 808.65 560.00 12 1.1 4.8% 20 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 10,613 19.90 -0.5% -14.8% 232 1,232 27.70 17.55 8 1.0 4.5% 21 Emaar Malls Group PJSC AE 9,922 2.80 -4.8% 1.4% 4,429 3,377 3.34 2.02 21 2.3 3.6% 22 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 9,355 6.14 -2.5% -6.8% 1,925 3,218 8.91 5.20 7 1.2 7.3% 23 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 8,720 10.90 -1.4% -12.1% 872 2,535 16.95 10.70 8 0.9 6.4% 24 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 8,120 20.30 -1.9% -18.0% 110 595 34.50 19.00 7 1.1 3.7% 25 Ooredoo QSC QA 7,822 88.90 -0.8% 18.5% 35 848 96.10 60.00 11 1.3 3.4% 26 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 7,818 450.00 -2.2% -8.3% 2,085 3,112 590.91 395.45 15 1.3 3.4% 27 Emirates Integrated Telecom Co PJSC AE 7,780 6.25 -1.6% 22.5% 1,537 2,616 6.84 4.65 15 3.9 6.9% 28 Banque Saudi Fransi SJSC SA 7,262 22.60 -1.7% -19.3% 113 682 36.10 20.70 7 0.9 4.6% 29 Masraf Al Rayan QSC QA 7,015 34.05 0.0% -9.4% 151 1,416 46.60 28.60 12 2.3 5.1% 30 Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Co SJSC SA 6,778 61.00 0.4% -26.3% 266 4,320 122.75 58.00 14 3.8 9.8% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 491,523 4.4% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated in the DIFC (Dubai International Financial Centre) and regulated by the DFSA (Dubai Financial Services Authority). The information contained in this report does not constitute any offer to sell securities or the solicitation of any offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended to be used by experienced investment persons with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority. 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