MENA Market Report - 22 March

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Thursday , March 22, 2018 Overview Regional Markets: MENA region ended on a positive note as it was driven by positive news flow on the domestic front. Further, the rise in oil prices in the past two sessions, reaching close to $70 per barrel again is also supporting the sentiments of regional investors. For the day, five out of the eight indexes ended in green, while the remaining three closed in red during the session. UAE markets witnessed buying activity during the session, which pushed Dubai and Abu Dhabi higher by 0.8% and 0.9% respectively for the day. Both of the indexes were supported by the joint venture agreement signed by Aldar and Emaar, which is expected to be positive for the subdued real estate sector. Saudi Arabia closed on a positive note as it was up by 0.5% for the day as the index is being supported by the expected inclusion in the secondary emerging market index. The day's performance helped the broader index in recovering the losses to turn positive for the week to extend the monthly gains to 4.6% and annual to 7.4%. Egypt closed marginally higher by 0.2% for the day, maintaining the positive trend during the week. Qatar closed on a negative note as it was down by 1.2% for the day, giving away most of the gains recorded during the earlier sessions of the week. Kuwait closed in red as it was down by 0.3% for the day, extending the losses to 1.1% for the week. Bahrain closed lower by 0.3%, while Oman was up by 0.3% for the day. International Markets: US markets closed in red as DJIA, S&P and Nasdaq were all down by 0.2%, 0.2% and 0.3% respectively for the day. European markets also ended in red as FTSE, CAC and DAX closed lower by 0.3%, 0.2% and 0.1% respectively for the day. At the time of writing this report, Asian markets have opened on a negative note as Hang Seng and Shanghai are down by 0.5% and 0.8% respectively, while Nikkei is up by 0.4%. Headlines (WW) US Federal Reserve raises interest rates (ME) Mena region to invest about USD 1tn in energy sector over coming 5 years (WW) China will safeguard national interests in response to US trade probes (ME) Construction costs in MENA region set to rise (WW) China January-February fiscal revenues up 15.8% YoY (GCC) GCC central banks hike interest rates (WW) Euro zone consumer confidence unchanged in March (SA) Saudi Arabia February inflation edges down slightly after jump on new tax (WW) UK jobless rate falls unexpectedly in 3 months (SA) Saudi Arabia has almost 5,000 projects in the pipeline (WW) UK wage growth nears 2.5 year high, boosting chances of BOE rate hike (AE) Sharjah property market to gain pace ahead of Expo 2020 (WW) German economy likely to grow by 2.6% this year, 2.1% next (AE) Dubai completes USD 2.45bn project financing for metro extension (WW) Brazil set to cut interest rates once again as inflation underwhelms (AE) Dubai breaks ground on world’s biggest CSP project (CMD) Oil edges up on Middle East tensions, but soaring US output still weighs (AE) Dubai's real estate continues to shift towards affordable homes (CMD) Gold gains on dollar decline as market awaits Fed rate outlook (EG) Egypt, Saudi Arabia mull joint fund’s potential projects (FX) Dollar pulls back from 3-week high as investors turn to Fed (KW) Kuwait plans USD 6.6bn industrial city (FX) Sterling edges higher before jobs data (KW) Kuwait mulls new USD 12bn mega airport (FI) Treasury yields climb ahead of interest rate hike (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,206.70 0.8% 0.3% -1.2% -4.8% ˅ ˅ ˅ Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,566.66 0.9% 0.5% -0.7% 3.8% ˅ ˄ ˄ Saudi (SASEIDX) 7,761.74 0.5% 0.2% 4.6% 7.4% ˄ ˄ ˄ Kuwait (KWSE) 6,686.94 -0.3% -1.1% -1.3% 4.4% ˅ ˄ ˄ Egypt (EGX30) 17,147.12 0.2% 0.9% 10.8% 14.2% ˄ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 8,873.38 -1.2% 0.3% 2.5% 4.1% ˄ ˄ ˄ Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,336.43 -0.3% -1.4% -2.4% 0.4% ˅ ˄ ˄ Oman (MSM30) 4,796.23 0.3% -2.1% -4.1% -5.9% ˅ ˅ ˅ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 141 222 240 70 91 103 83,837 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 63 68 78 42 38 42 133,737 Saudi (SASEIDX) 186 172 172 1,104 969 928 485,272 Kuwait (KWSE) 48 85 87 42 49 54 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 413 282 332 123 99 91 30,022 Qatar (DSM) 12 11 10 77 89 77 104,663 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1 7 6 1 3 3 22,208 Oman (MSM30) 19 14 16 7 7 10 13,207 Index * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters 1
2. MENA Morning Report Thursday , March 22, 2018 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 PB Previous Current 600 13.9 11.7 12.2 12 8 10.7 10.7 7.8 265.0 7.6 4 1.1 1.3 2.5 1.7 140.9 109.2 1.2 - - 0.8 0.9 Bahrain Oman - 248.6 300 58.8 1.3 0 83.6 80.4 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Dubai Average Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Average 12% 6.0% 6.0% 9% 5.5% 4.9% 4.1% Oman 14.2% 15% 4.9% Bahrain Year to Date Perfomance DividendYield 8% 6% Qatar 4.3% 7.4% 6% 4.4% 4.1% 3.8% 3% 4% 0.4% 0% 2.8% -3% 2% -6% 0.0% -9% 0% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average -5.9% -4.8% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Thursday , March 22, 2018 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) AMANAT HOLDINGS PJSC 1.29 -5.15% 0 5,017 33,104 DAR AL TAKAFUL PJSC 0.69 -2.26% 0 8 7,812 46,909 GULF NAVIGATION HOLDING PJSC 1.03 -0.96% 779 806 6,579 35,561 DUBAI FINANCIAL MARKET PJSC 1.05 -0.94% 10,260 10,824 1.86% 1,034 2,244 AJMAN BANK PJSC 1.08 -0.92% 221 239 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) NATIONAL TAKAFUL CO PJSC 0.52 8.33% 1 0 RAS AL KHAIMAH FOR WHITE CEMENT 0.94 -9.62% 3 3 ABU DHABI NATIONAL ENERGY CO 0.72 5.88% 562 393 AGTHIA GROUP PJSC 4.30 -3.15% 21 90 ALDAR PROPERTIES PJSC 2.22 2.78% 34,705 76,004 EMIRATES INSURANCE COMPANY PSC 7.00 -2.78% 100 710 FIRST ABU DHABI BANK PJSC 11.30 2.26% 1,991 22,249 SUDATEL TELECOM GROUP LTD 0.53 -1.85% 150 80 ABU DHABI NATIONAL OIL COMPANY 2.65 1.53% 887 2,334 BANK OF SHARJAH PJSC 1.12 -1.75% 240 271 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) SAUDI COMPANY FOR HARDWARE 133.20 10.08% 66 8,422 SAUDI ELECTRICITY COMPANY SJSC 20.20 -3.99% 8,061 166,217 MIDDLE EAST HEALTHCARE CO CJSC 57.80 6.06% 710 39,884 AL MAATHER REIT FUND 8.48 -3.96% 712 6,165 ALLIANZ SAUDI FRANSI CO-OP INS 34.10 3.81% 64 2,147 AL HASSAN GHAZI IBRAHIM SHAKER 11.14 -3.63% 2,287 25,957 AXA COOPERATIVE INSURANCE CO 26.85 3.67% 721 19,028 AL SAMAANI FACTORY METAL IND 60.50 -3.20% 1 46 DAR AL ARKAN REAL ESTATE DEV 11.44 3.62% 41,411 465,461 SAUDI STEEL PIPES CO SJSC 20.96 -3.05% 3,285 69,943 Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) REAL ESTATE TRADE CENTERS CO 28.90 19.92% 73 2 FIRST TAKAFUL INSURANCE CO KPSC 49.50 -19.77% 159 9 BOUBYAN INTERNATIONAL IND 32.90 17.08% 94 3 AL MUDON INTERNATIONAL REAL EST 33.00 -14.73% 284 10 100.00 -10.71% 0 0 Close DoD % Volume Value AL SALAM BANK SUDAN PLC 1.73 3.59% 0 212 DRAKE AND SCULL INTERNATIONAL 1.82 2.82% 0 EMAAR PROPERTIES PJSC 6.07 2.19% EMAAR DEVELOPMENT PJSC 5.46 2.06% DUBAI INVESTMENTS PJSC 2.19 Dubai Top Gainers Saudi Arabia Abu Dhabi Top Gainers Egypt Kuwait Top Gainers Top Losers EFFECT REAL ESTATE COMPANY KPSC 23.00 15.00% 0 0 IFA HOTELS AND RESORTS CO KSCP AMAR FINANCE AND LEASING CO 35.00 12.18% 4 0 SALBOOKH TRADING CO KSCP 46.00 -7.82% 1 0 KUWAIT AND MIDDLE EAST FINANCIAL 24.00 9.09% 27 1 SENERGY HOLDING COMPANY KSCP 26.50 -7.02% 70 2 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) SINAI CEMENT CO SAE 13.99 9.81% 0 714 INTERNATIONAL COMPANY FOR INVES 11.70 -10.00% 4 49 MISR BENI SUEF CEMENT CO SAE 26.48 9.29% 266 6,745 GRAND CAPITAL FOR FINANCIAL INVES 4.58 -8.40% 7 32 ROWAD TOURISM COMPANY SAE 12.01 8.98% 141 1,622 EL AHRAM CO FOR PRINTING & PACK 7.27 -5.09% 22 165 SIXTH OF OCTOBER DEVELOPMENT 23.73 8.26% 4,334 98,914 UPPER EGYPT FLOUR MILLS SAE 137.91 -5.00% 2 344 ALEXANDRIA MEDICAL SERVICES CO 29.17 7.72% 3 91 ISMAILIA MISR POULTRY CO SAE 4.31 -4.43% 49 215 Close DoD % Volume Value Close DoD % Volume Value DOHA INSURANCE CO QSC 14.00 8.70% 2 20 QATAR GAS TRANSPORT CO LTD 15.04 -6.00% 768 11,919 QATAR ISLAMIC INSURANCE CO QPSC 58.39 7.63% 3 168 MEDICARE GROUP QSC 73.01 -5.79% 152 11,457 AHLI BANK QSC 32.00 5.58% 2 52 ISLAMIC HOLDING GROUP QPSC 30.25 -4.03% 26 800 QATAR INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING 40.90 2.25% 3 111 OOREDOO QSC 85.51 -4.03% 68 5,901 VODAFONE QATAR QSC 8.73 1.28% 1,753 15,211 GULF INTERNATIONAL SERVICES QSC 19.20 -2.83% 749 14,591 Top Gainers Qatar Top Losers Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Thursday , March 22, 2018 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 88,153 110.20 0.4% 8.3% 4,338 127,499 112.00 94.25 18 2.0 3.8% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 42,151 17.80 0.0% 1.7% 346 1,678 18.85 15.75 18 3.5 4.5% 3 Saudi Telecom Company SJSC SA 41,863 78.50 0.4% 14.4% 497 10,411 84.00 65.10 15 2.5 5.1% 4 Qatar National Bank QPSC QA 34,309 135.21 -1.2% 7.3% 176 6,546 151.00 115.01 10 1.6 4.4% 5 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 34,024 63.80 0.8% 15.8% 480 8,170 65.00 37.00 13 2.0 2.7% 6 First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC AE 33,530 11.30 2.3% 10.2% 1,991 6,126 11.70 10.05 13 1.2 6.2% 7 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp Ltd SA 32,714 75.50 1.1% 16.9% 5,511 110,953 78.20 61.00 13 2.2 5.3% 8 Saudi Electricity Company SJSC SA 22,442 20.20 -4.0% -4.1% 8,061 43,424 26.05 19.76 8 1.1 3.5% 9 DP World Ltd AE 19,098 23.01 -4.9% -8.0% 117 733 27.06 20.30 16 1.8 1.8% 10 Industries Qatar QSC QA 17,784 107.00 -0.7% 10.3% 38 1,105 115.00 85.00 20 1.9 4.7% 11 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 16,295 52.30 3.0% 0.4% 1,289 17,981 57.10 39.20 85 2.3 0.0% 12 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 15,663 10.35 1.0% 26.2% 2,050 5,778 10.55 7.95 7 1.0 3.9% 13 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 15,210 771.00 -0.3% 5.9% 3,903 10,041 800.00 640.00 15 1.4 3.9% 14 Almarai Co SJSC SA 14,372 53.90 0.0% 0.2% 563 8,092 78.64 50.00 26 3.7 1.4% 15 Emirates Islamic Bank PJSC AE 14,047 9.50 0.0% -3.1% 1 1 10.20 4.90 73 7.1 0.0% 16 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 13,946 26.15 0.4% 11.2% 864 6,023 27.10 20.50 10 1.2 5.7% 17 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 12,354 49.85 -0.7% -15.7% 550 7,317 75.60 49.70 344 4.5 0.0% 18 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 12,299 30.75 -1.1% 13.9% 243 1,997 31.55 20.50 12 1.4 4.6% 19 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 11,833 6.07 2.2% -7.2% 7,812 12,911 8.43 5.77 7 1.0 2.5% 20 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 11,321 589.00 0.0% 2.3% 2,039 4,008 650.00 467.00 18 1.8 2.9% 21 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 11,231 14.04 0.4% 11.6% 776 2,906 14.18 10.10 11 1.1 5.2% 22 Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co SJSC SA 10,424 69.50 1.8% 17.8% 419 7,758 70.90 52.00 16 2.3 4.7% 23 Vodafone Qatar QSC QA 10,138 8.73 1.3% 8.9% 1,753 4,205 9.81 6.03 0 1.7 0.0% 24 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 10,007 7.07 -0.8% 4.0% 1,170 2,253 7.50 6.55 9 1.1 5.9% 25 Banque Saudi Fransi SJSC SA 9,128 28.40 -1.4% 0.0% 1,152 8,726 33.40 23.40 10 1.1 0.0% 26 Abu Dhabi National Oil Co for Dist AE 9,019 2.65 1.5% 0.0% 887 640 2.90 2.50 18 11.6 2.2% 27 Kingdom Holding Co SA 8,943 9.05 -0.3% 1.7% 118 284 11.30 7.90 53 1.1 5.5% 28 Alinma Bank SJSC SA 8,079 20.20 0.7% 5.4% 19,316 104,053 20.86 14.00 15 1.5 4.0% 29 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 7,979 10.95 -0.5% -9.4% 449 1,350 16.30 6.19 17 1.0 0.0% 30 Emaar Malls PJSC AE 7,867 2.22 0.5% 4.2% 780 471 2.70 2.00 15 1.8 4.5% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 596,225 3.7% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Limited (“AMCL”). AMCL is a company incorporated in the Cayman Islands as an Exempt Company established under the laws of the Cayman Monetary Authority. The information contained in this report does not constitute any offer to sell securities or the solicitation of any offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended to be used by experienced investment persons with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCL is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority, and as such should not be relied upon by or distributed to “Retail Clients”. 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