MENA Market Report - 12 April

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , April 12, 2017 Overview Regional Markets: MENA region ended the session on a subdued note, a trend seen throughout the week as investors remain on the sideline due to ongoing geopolitical risk coming from Syria and North Korea. This is also outplaying the earnings announcements by leading banks, which have been growing by double digits in Q1 of 2017. For the region, four out of the eight indexes closed in red, while two ended in green and two remained unchanged for the day. UAE markets closed mostly lower as Abu Dhabi was down by 0.2%, while Dubai was unchanged for the day. Abu Dhabi was mostly dragged lower by TAQA as investors booked profit after rising in the previous sessions, while Dubai was supported by Dubai Islamic bank on the back of solid earnings. Kuwait was up by 0.3% for the day, recovering the losses seen in the previous two sessions to turn flat for the week. Egypt was the best performer as it was up by 1.1% for the day after remaining under pressure in the past three to four sessions. Saudi Arabia closed lower as the index was down by 0.4% for the day, extending the losses to 0.6% in the previous three sessions. The index witnessed a broad based selling, especially the energy sector stocks while the banking sector remained mostly flat for the day. Qatar closed on a negative note as it was down by 0.7% for the day on higher trading volumes compared to the previous day. Oman was down by 0.5%, while Bahrain closed unchanged for the day. International Markets: US markets closed marginally lower as Dow, Nasdaq and S&P were all down by 0.03%, 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. European markets closed on a mixed note where FTSE was up by 0.2%, while DAX and CAC were both down by 0.5% and 0.1% respectively. At the time of writing this report, Asian markets have opened in red as Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai are all down by 1.2%, 0.2% and 0.3% respectively. Headlines (WW) IMF more upbeat about global economy this year than in 2016 (GCC) Gulf pharmaceuticals summit aims to promote regulation and industry growth (WW) US inflation expectations slide after run-up (GCC) Family-run firms claim 80% of private sector in GCC (WW) US Consumer debt growth can't outpace wages forever (SA) Saudis, oil majors discuss gas investments ahead of giant IPO (WW) Hopes fade for US bank earnings despite rally in financial shares (SA) Saudi private sector should forget about 'business as usual' (WW) UK retail sales fall again as rising living costs bite (SA) Saudi Arabia markets debut dollar sukuk with wide guidance (WW) UK inflation holds steady in March, set to gather steam in April (AE) OPEC, UAE to launch new global oil, gas database (WW) German GDP growth seen topping estimates in 2017, 2018 (AE) No rent cuts for 90% of Dubai tenants (WW) Australia business activity jumps to decade-high in March (AE) Brace for higher Dubai rents later this year (CMD) Oil eases from 5-week high, U.S. output rise undermines rally (QA) Strong loan growth lifts profit at Qatar National Bank (CMD) Gold steady, finds support from geopolitical worries (QA) Qatar seen lagging the Gulf in levying VAT (FX) Sterling inches up as UK inflation stays above 2% (QA) IMF hails Qatar's move to adjust to lower oil prices (FX) Dollar edges down vs yen as US Treasury yields slip (OM) Oman's new law will prevent corporate tax evasion (FI) US yields little changed as Yellen event ends (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,535.22 -0.0% -0.9% 1.6% 0.1% ˄ ˅ ˄ Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,562.99 -0.2% -1.1% 2.7% 0.4% ˄ ˅ ˄ Saudi (SASEIDX) 7,036.36 -0.4% -0.6% 0.5% -2.4% ˄ ˅ ˄ Kuwait (KWSE) 7,029.78 0.3% -0.0% 0.0% 22.3% ˄ ˄ ˄ Egypt (EGX30) 12,995.71 1.1% -0.8% 0.0% 5.3% ˄ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 10,411.77 -0.7% -0.4% 0.2% -0.2% ˄ ˅ ˄ Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,362.68 -0.0% 0.7% 0.5% 11.7% ˅ ˄ ˄ Oman (MSM30) 5,549.95 -0.5% -1.1% -0.0% -4.0% ˅ ˅ ˄ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 285 478 525 87 186 191 82,732 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 144 156 151 53 72 63 135,411 Saudi (SASEIDX) 110 192 243 687 971 1,111 442,951 Kuwait (KWSE) 283 505 330 69 141 97 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 224 316 372 56 91 94 19,696 Qatar (DSM) 11 11 9 78 101 83 133,813 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 3 5 4 3 3 3 21,140 Oman (MSM30) 12 19 17 6 12 10 16,608 Index * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters ** indicates markets were closed on Sunday. 1
2. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , April 12, 2017 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 13.7 386.2 8.7 300 8 239.3 188.3 4 1.2 Current 489.3 11.2 9.2 1.5 2.0 1.7 1.5 - - 0.9 1.1 Bahrain Oman - 178.1 106.9 87.2 1.4 0 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait 27% 4.9% 5.6% 5.2% 3.3% Oman Average 22.3% 0.0% Bahrain -4.0% -9% 0% Qatar -0.2% -2.4% 0.0% Egypt 5.3% 0.4% 0% 2% Kuwait 9% 0.1% 2.1% Saudi Bahrain 18% 3.9% 4% Abu Dhabi Qatar 11.7% 4.2% Dubai Egypt Year to Date Perfomance Dividend Yield 8% 6% Previous 600 12.9 11.7 11.0 12 PB Oman Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , April 12, 2017 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Arabia Kuwait DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) UNION PROPERTIES PJSC 1.04 -1.92% 8,072 8,477 1,837 AIR ARABIA PJSC 1.08 -1.85% 26,008 28,354 29,299 13,524 AMLAK FINANCE PJSC 1.11 -1.80% 3,433 3,846 1,032 5,317 AL SALAM BANK SUDAN PLC 2.03 -1.48% 502 1,027 GULF GENERAL INVESTMENT CO PSC 0.45 -1.34% 1,906 860 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) TAKAFUL EMARAT INSURANCE PJSC 2.27 6.17% 0 25 DUBAI ISLAMIC INSURANCE 0.86 2.69% 2,177 ISLAMIC ARAB INSURANCE CO PSC 0.47 1.93% ARAMEX PJSC 5.20 1.92% Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) ABU DHABI AVIATION 2.72 10.29% 707 1,832 ABU DHABI ISLAMIC BANK PJSC 3.87 -6.98% 3,352 13,461 ESHRAQ PROPERTIES COMPANY PJSC 1.18 2.54% 60,295 70,266 AL KHAZNA INSURANCE COMPANY 0.42 -4.76% 75 32 NATIONAL BANK OF RAS AL KHAIMAH 4.70 1.91% 125 582 ABU DHABI NATIONAL ENERGY CO 0.60 -3.33% 166 101 MANAZEL REAL ESTATE PJSC 0.55 1.82% 2,240 1,221 WAHA CAPITAL PJSC 1.95 -2.56% 117 232 RAS AL KHAIMAH CERAMICS PSC 2.11 1.42% 1,175 2,462 INTERNATIONAL FISH FARMING 1.87 -1.60% 891 1,680 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) NATIONAL AGRICULTURE DEV 32.20 8.07% 5,971 185,099 EASTERN PROVINCE CEMENT CO SJSC 30.30 -7.59% 350 11,027 AL ALAMIYA FOR COOPERATIVE 23.90 3.77% 1,381 32,410 AL SAMAANI FACTORY METAL INDUS 89.00 -4.49% 9 853 ARABIAN SHIELD COOPERATIVE 57.25 3.06% 391 22,027 BANK ALJAZIRA JSC 12.42 -4.21% 3,810 48,375 MOUWASAT MEDICAL SERVICES CO 141.00 2.84% 34 4,730 SAUDI TELECOM COMPANY SJSC 70.75 -3.53% 422 30,432 AL ANDALUS PROPERTY CO SJSC 19.70 2.54% 1,040 20,232 SAUDI CEMENT CO SJSC 53.75 -3.26% 422 23,063 Top Gainers Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Top Losers Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) KUWAIT BUILDING MATERIALS MANU 126.00 7.94% 1 0 GULF FRANCHISING HOLDING CO KSCP 63.00 -7.94% 19 1 AUTOMATED SYSTEMS CO KPSC 270.00 7.41% 0 0 SAFAT GLOBAL HOLDING CO 42.50 -5.88% 3,860 169 FIRST TAKAFUL INSURANCE CO KPSC 57.00 7.02% 10 1 NATIONAL CONSUMER HOLDING 92.00 -5.43% 22 2 ASIYA CAPITAL INVESTMENTS CO KSC 42.00 5.95% 11,841 483 KUWAIT SYRIAN HOLDING CO KSC 47.50 -5.26% 21,781 1,063 REAL ESTATE TRADE CENTERS 42.50 5.88% 1,710 71 KUWAIT REAL ESTATE HOLDING CO 48.00 -5.21% 15,996 789 Close DoD % Volume Value Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) TRANS OCEANS TOURS SAE 0.06 16.67% 38 2 NOZHA INTERNATIONAL HOSPITAL 90.00 -7.74% 0 31 SHOROUK FOR MODERN PRINTING 9.54 9.75% 5 45 PYRAMISA HOTELS AND RESORTS SAE 20.46 -5.77% 1 17 GOLDEN TEXTILES AND CLOTHES 4.64 9.70% 6 28 EAST DELTA FLOUR MILLS CO SAE 84.90 -4.31% 0 16 WADI KOM OMBO FOR LAND 6.01 8.65% 3 15 RAYA HOLDING FOR FINANCIAL 15.13 -4.03% 454 7,009 GULF CANADIAN COMPANY FOR ARAB 8.90 8.65% 116 992 ARAB MOLTAQA INVESTMENTS CO 14.00 -3.79% 45 635 Top Gainers Close DoD % Volume Value Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) QATAR CINEMA AND FILM DISTRIBU 30.00 10.00% 0 0 AL KHALEEJ TAKAFUL GROUP QSC 20.49 -4.69% 121 2,541 QATAR GENERAL INSURANCE AND 39.10 4.86% 0 0 OOREDOO QSC 104.80 -2.39% 68 7,247 QATAR ISLAMIC INSURANCE CO QSC 61.20 2.78% 7 428 COMMERCIAL BANK QSC 31.70 -1.89% 90 2,888 ALIJARAH HOLDING CO QSC 17.73 1.75% 474 8,334 EZDAN HOLDING GROUP QSC 16.00 -1.88% 1,686 27,237 QATAR NAVIGATION QSC 74.60 1.47% 132 9,790 QATARI GERMAN COMPANY 9.70 -1.86% 58 563 Top Gainers Top Gainers Egypt Close * DoD % Top Gainers Qatar Top Losers Close * Top Gainers Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , April 12, 2017 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 81,004 101.25 -0.5% 10.7% 2,939 79,369 102.50 74.25 17 1.9 4.0% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 43,102 18.20 0.6% -3.2% 1,091 5,409 20.20 17.15 18 3.7 4.4% 3 Qatar National Bank SAQ QA 37,680 148.50 -0.7% 0.3% 313 12,756 157.27 121.36 11 2.0 1.9% 4 Saudi Telecom Company SJSC SA 36,402 68.25 -3.5% -5.9% 422 7,688 74.00 51.00 16 2.3 5.9% 5 National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC AE 32,346 10.90 -0.5% 9.1% 1,869 5,546 11.55 7.60 12 1.2 4.1% 6 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp SA 28,168 65.00 0.8% 3.2% 1,214 21,050 67.50 48.60 13 2.0 3.5% 7 Saudi Electricity Co SJSC SA 26,445 23.80 -0.4% 6.3% 908 5,764 25.80 14.30 47 1.6 2.9% 8 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 20,374 38.20 -0.5% -10.3% 888 9,043 46.30 32.00 8 1.3 4.2% 9 Industries Qatar QSC QA 18,448 111.00 0.0% -5.5% 52 1,596 122.00 94.50 23 2.0 3.6% 10 DP World Ltd AE 17,928 21.60 0.5% 23.4% 476 2,798 22.25 15.53 18 2.0 1.8% 11 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 16,730 67.50 0.0% -9.7% 209 3,754 76.00 46.00 82 6.2 0.0% 12 Emirates Islamic Bank PJSC AE 16,266 11.00 0.0% 0.0% 3 8 11.95 1.57 452 8.9 0.0% 13 Almarai Co SJSC SA 15,681 73.50 1.4% 7.3% 452 8,854 73.75 51.50 29 4.5 1.2% 14 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 14,388 7.38 -0.9% 3.5% 1,460 2,934 7.79 5.95 10 1.3 2.0% 15 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 13,591 700.00 0.0% 13.1% 710 1,632 723.81 523.81 14 1.3 4.1% 16 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 12,963 41.60 -0.7% 6.7% 320 3,545 43.80 27.80 121 1.8 0.0% 17 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 12,259 8.10 0.0% -4.6% 279 616 9.00 7.60 7 0.8 4.9% 18 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 11,440 15.70 -1.9% 3.9% 1,686 7,273 20.24 14.63 23 1.4 3.2% 19 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 11,121 20.85 -0.7% -14.4% 269 1,494 25.20 15.90 8 1.0 4.6% 20 Kingdom Holding Co SA 10,426 10.55 0.0% -11.7% 97 274 13.15 9.90 77 1.4 0.0% 21 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 10,405 550.00 1.9% 12.0% 599 1,081 572.73 400.00 15 1.7 2.8% 22 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 9,824 6.94 0.6% 0.6% 2,426 4,585 7.68 5.66 9 1.2 5.8% 23 Emaar Malls Group PJSC AE 9,285 2.62 0.0% 0.0% 345 246 3.10 2.47 18 2.1 3.8% 24 Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co SJSC SA 9,038 60.25 -1.2% 11.6% 106 1,703 61.75 37.00 15 2.1 5.0% 25 Ooredoo QSC QA 9,002 102.30 -2.4% 0.0% 68 1,920 116.10 81.50 15 1.5 0.0% 26 Masraf Al Rayan QSC QA 8,818 42.80 0.0% 13.8% 765 8,992 44.20 32.10 15 2.5 4.7% 27 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 8,740 21.85 0.2% -12.6% 185 1,076 25.90 16.40 8 1.0 3.2% 28 Banque Saudi Fransi SJSC SA 8,323 25.90 -0.8% -0.8% 34 233 27.80 18.00 9 1.1 4.1% 29 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 8,280 10.35 0.0% -10.4% 728 2,008 11.80 8.55 9 0.8 6.3% 30 Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC AE 7,806 5.80 0.9% 4.1% 1,840 2,906 6.29 4.90 9 1.2 7.8% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 566,284 3.4% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated under the DIFC Companies Law and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). The information contained in this report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or the solicitation of an offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for professionals with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority. 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