GCC Daily Market Update - 14 January

Transcription

1. WEEKLY WRAP January 15 , 2017 ECONOMIC UPDATE & NEWS Period Survey Actual Prior Germany Industrial Production MoM Nov 0.60% 0.40% 0.50% France Industrial Production MoM Nov 0.60% 2.20% (0.10%) 2.70 Russia CPI YoY Dec F - 5.40% 5.40% 2.50 UK Industrial Production MoM Nov 1.00% 2.10% (1.10%) 2.30 US MBA Mortgage Applications Jan-06th - 5.80% 0.10% Japan BoP Current Acc. Balance France CPI YoY Italy Industrial Production MoM Russia Gold and Forex Reserve US Initial Jobless Claims US Retail Sales Advance MoM US U. of Mich. Sentiment UST 10yr Bond 2.10 Nov ¥1460.0b ¥1415.5b ¥1719.9b 377.7b 376.3b 1.50 255k 247k 237k Dec 0.70% 0.60% 0.20% Jan P 98.5 98.1 98.2 Source: Bloomberg GLOBAL NEWS               The World Bank said that global growth in 2017 is expected to accelerate slightly to 2.7% from 2.3% in 2016 due to recovering oil and commodity prices. (Source: Reuters) US import prices rose 0.4% MoM in Dec-16 mainly due to higher prices for petroleum products. (Source: CNBC) Federal Reserve officials said that US economy is moving closer to the central bank’s unemployment and inflation targets, at the annual conference of the American Economic Association. (Source: Bloomberg) Fed official- Eric Rosengren called for the central bank to step up pace of interest rate hike, warning of inflation risks if it does not.  (Source: Reuters)  EIA said that US crude production would increase by 300,000 bpd YoY to average 9.3mn bpd in 2018. (Source: Reuters) UK industrial output rose 2.1% MoM due to surge in oil and gas output as North Sea field resumed operations. (Source: Bloomberg) UK trade deficit rose to GBP 12.2bn in Nov-16 from GBP 9.9bn in Oct16 due to a surge in imports of transport equipment. (Source: Bloomberg) German industrial production rose 0.4% MoM in Nov-16 1.5% MoM surge in construction as per the Economy Ministry. (Source: Reuters) China's producer prices rose 5.5% YoY in Dec-16 as prices of coal and other raw materials soared. (Source: Reuters) China's foreign reserves fell to USD 3.01tn in Dec-16. (Source: Reuters) China's foreign direct investments rose 40% YoY to EUR 180.0bn in 2016 according to a study by MERICS. (Source: Reuters) World Bank cuts its growth forecast for Turkey down to 3% from a previous estimate of 3.5% due to decreased economic activity in the Q3-16. (Source: Daily Sabah) Turkey’s industrial production rose by calendar adjusted 2.7% YoY in Nov-16, with manufacturing output growing 2.1% YoY. (Source: TurkStat) Turkey's central bank has cut foreign-exchange reserve requirement ratios by 50bps for all maturities. (Source: Reuters)           S&P said that sukuk issuance in GCC will remain subdued in 2017, with Bahrain being the most prominent player. (Source: Trade Arabia) UAE has set up a legal system for VC funds to strengthen its position in the international innovation index ranking. (Source: Arabian Business) UAE will spend AED 600.0bn over the next three decades in developing the country's energy market, UAE’s PM said. (Source: AB) A total of 14,600 residential units entered the Dubai real estate market in 2016, according to a report by JLL. (Source: Arabian Business) Dubai's retail sector added about 260,000 sq.m of new space in 2016, the highest volume since 2010, according to JLL. (Source: Arabian Business) Dubai Municipality allocated USD 1.91bn for development of infrastructure projects for 2017, its Director General said. (Source: AB) UAE’s Central Bank issued Regulatory Framework for Stored Values and Electronic Payment Systems on 1st Jan-17 to help facilitate the increased adoption of secure digital payments. (Source: Trade Arabia) The UAE Federal National Council approved a federal draft law on international trade to protect local industry. (Source: WAM) UAE-based Abu Dhabi Investment Group Chairman said that Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar will invest more than USD 100.0bn in Turkey to prevent rise in exchange rates. (Source: Daily Sabah) SAMA has raised the loan limit for mortgages from 70% to 85% as it would allow banks to supply a bigger share of funding for the purchase of homes. (Source: Arabian Business) Saudi Arabia hired HSBC as a financial advisor for its plans to privatize construction and management of school buildings. (Source: AB) Oman is expected to issue a tender for a bulk liquid terminal at the Port of Duqm within a month, its CEO said. (Source: Times of Oman) Oman is negotiating with Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia to secure a multi-billion USD deposit to boost its foreign exchange reserves. (Source: Arabian Business)   Kuwait reduced oil production in Jan-17 to around 2.7mn bpd, meeting its output target under an OPEC agreement. (Source: Reuters) Bahrain Central Bank will issue the BHD 5.0, BHD 1.0 and BHD 0.5 denomination notes for the visually impaired. (Source: BNA) QATAR NEWS      GCC NEWS  09-Jan - Jan-07th 02-Jan Jan-06th 26-Dec 1.70 19-Dec 0.10% 12-Dec 0.70% 05-Dec 0.20% 28-Nov Nov 21-Nov 0.60% 14-Nov 0.60% 07-Nov 0.60% 31-Oct 1.90 Dec F Source: Bloomberg 2.34 24-Oct Event 17-Oct Region       Consumer Inflation rose 1.8% YoY in Dec-16, on the back of increased expenses towards transport, utilities and education. (Source: Gulf Times) Qatar and Lebanon agreed to activate high-level joint committee between the two countries to promote economic and investment cooperation. (Source: Qatar Tribune) The economy is expected to have grown 3.9% in 2016, business advisory firm ValuStrat said in a report. (Source: Qatar Tribune) Real estate transaction for the week ending 5th January-17, were worth QAR 260.5mn, official data showed. (Source: Qatar Tribune) Qatar Petroleum said that Qatari crude oil prices rose between 17.9% and 19.5% in Dec-16. (Source: QNA) Qatar Aluminum Extrusion Company doubled its production capacity by adding new production lines for more products and increase output, it announced in a statement. (Source: The Peninsula) Qatar approved plans to expand the capacity of Hamad International Airport in Doha to more than 65mn passengers. (Source: Trade Arabia) The number of building permits issued in Dec-16 declined by 6% MoM, MDPS said. (Source: QNA) Oil demand is expected to grow in Qatar driven by the transportation and industrial sectors, according to a report by OPEC. (Source: Gulf Times) Qatar Investment Authority and Brazilian food processor BRF SA will buy Turkish poultry producer- Banvit’s operation in a JV. (Source: AB) S&P said that Qatar will maintain its buoyant growth rates supported by ongoing construction of infrastructure projects for the FIFA 2022. (Source: Gulf Times) 1
2. WEEKLY WRAP January 15 , 2017 EQUITY Index Price Index Price WTD %Δ 2,274.6 (0.1) 1.6 1.6 MSCI EM 896.0 1.7 3.9 3.9 19,885.7 (0.4) 0.6 0.6 S&P GCC 1,626.0 1.1 3.5 3.5 Nasdaq 5,059.5 1.0 4.0 4.0 Dow Jones Islamic 2,972.8 0.4 2.3 2.3 FTSE 100 7,337.8 1.8 2.7 2.7 KSA (TASI) 6,921.8 (3.8) (4.0) (4.0) DAX 30 11,629.2 0.3 1.3 1.3 UAE (DFM) 3,720.6 2.6 5.4 5.4 CAC 40 4,922.5 0.3 1.2 1.2 UAE (ADX) 4,681.3 1.7 3.0 3.0 BIST 100 81,524.3 5.7 4.3 4.3 Qatar (DSM) 10,709.5 (0.1) 2.6 2.6 Nikkei S&P 500 DJIA WTD %Δ MTD %Δ YTD %Δ COMMENTARY MTD %Δ YTD %Δ 19,287.3 (0.9) 0.9 0.9 Kuwait (KSE) 6,107.7 4.7 6.3 6.3 Sh. Comp 3,112.8 (1.3) 0.3 0.3 Bahrain (BAX) 1,211.7 0.4 (0.7) (0.7) Hang Seng 22,937.4 1.9 4.3 4.3 Oman (MSM) 5,762.5 (0.5) (0.3) (0.3) Sensex 27,238.1 1.8 2.3 2.3 Jordan (ASEGI) 2,176.9 0.3 0.3 0.3 Source: Bloomberg GLOBAL INDICES Weekly Performance (%) 5.7 BIST 100 Hang Seng Sensex FTSE 100 MSCI EM Nasdaq DAX 30 CAC 40 Jordan (ASEGI) S&P 500 (0.1) DJIA (0.4) Nikkei (0.9) Sh. Comp (1.3) (2.0) YTD Performance (%) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 4.3 4.3 4.0 3.9 BIST 100 Hang Seng Nasdaq MSCI EM FTSE 100 Sensex S&P 500 DAX 30 CAC 40 Nikkei DJIA Jordan (ASEGI) Sh. Comp 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.0 2.7 2.3 1.6 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.0 8.0 Source: Bloomberg 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Source: Bloomberg GCC INDICES Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) Kuwait (KSE) 4.7 UAE (DFM) S&P GCC Qatar (DSM) KSA (TASI) 0.4 Qatar (DSM) 0.4 Dow Jones Islamic (0.3) Bahrain (BAX) (0.5) 3.0 2.6 2.3 Oman (MSM) (0.1) Oman (MSM) 3.5 UAE (ADX) 1.1 Dow Jones Islamic 5.4 S&P GCC 1.7 Bahrain (BAX) 6.3 UAE (DFM) 2.6 UAE (ADX) Kuwait (KSE) (0.7) KSA (TASI) (4.0) (3.8) (6.0) (4.0) (2.0) 0.0 2.0 4.0 (6.0) (4.0) (2.0) 0.0 6.0 Source: Bloomberg 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Global US stocks closed on a mixed note this week. The Technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite performed best and reached record highs. S&P and Dow Jones however ended the week in red. Financials, which started off on a weak note, received a boost on Friday supported by positive earnings reported by Bank of America and Wells Fargo. Growth in retail sales and consistently high consumer sentiment buoyed the markets. Healthcare stocks were largely hit after Trump vowed to create new bidding procedures for the Drug industry, which he accused of ‘getting away with murder’. Major European markets ended on a positive note, with UK’s FTSE closing at an all-time high, supported by strong performance by Mining stocks and some positive economic data releases. Germany’s Dax also closed in green boosted by strong GDP data. Japan’s benchmark closed 0.9% lower on back of stronger yen. GCC Most gulf markets rose this week, however Saudi Arabia’s benchmark fell to its lowest in around four months, weighed by decline in crude prices. While Telecom sector led the fall, Utilities and Material sector followed with a fall of 6.1% and 3.8%, respectively. In UAE, Dubai’s index closed higher on back of stronger global equities. The Transport sector rose 4.3% after Air Arabia gained 5.2%, while the Banking sector added 3.5% on the back of Ajman Bank which jumped 19.4% during the week. Kuwait’s bourse outperformed its peers, closing 4.7% amidst a slew of earning releases. Qatar QE index closed marginally lower weighed by weakened buying support from institutional investors amidst low oil prices. Sell-off was prominent in the Real Estate and Transport sector, which fell 1.2% and 0.8%, respectively. In volumes, Banks and Financial services sector constituted 31% of the total traded, followed by Realty (28%), Telecom (20%) counters. Of the 44 stocks listed, 17 fell, 25 gained and two were unchanged. Source: Bloomberg DSM INDEX 12,000 10,709.5 11,000 10,000 9,000 Jul-16 Aug-16 Index Oct-16 50 SMA 100 SMA Nov-16 200 SMA Jan-17 Indicator Price Last Close 10,709.5 MAVG 50 10,138.8 MAVG 100 10,372.4 MAVG 200 10,260.5 6 Month High 11,408.8 6 Month Low 9,636.4 RSI (14 Days) 52.6 Source: Bloomberg 2
3. WEEKLY WRAP January 15 , 2017 RATES & CREDIT US Treasury (%) Qatar Treasury (%) 3.50 6.00 2.99 4.99 3.00 2.50 2.40 2.20 1.90 5.00 2.81 2.00 1.50 3.00 2.04 1.20 1.80 1.00 1.45 1.00 3.86 3.53 3.21 4.45 2.17 3.30 2.96 2.00 0.85 0.50 4.00 1.86 2.28 0.00 0.00 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs 10 Yrs Current 2 Yrs 30 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current Last Year Source: Bloomberg 10 Yrs 30 Yrs Last Year Source: Bloomberg CDS Qatar Govt. Int. Bonds Maturity Price (USD) Z Spread (BPS) Yield (%) WTD Δ (USD) YTD Δ (USD) Global QGIB 2017 100.1 (1,555.3) (29.31) (0.0) (0.0) US 27.2 (1.1) 0.4 0.4 QGS 2018 100.5 41.5 1.47 0.1 0.1 UK 28.9 (0.0) (2.2) (2.2) QGIB 2019 109.9 45.9 1.88 (0.2) (0.2) QGIB 2020 108.3 67.8 2.24 0.1 0.3 Qatari Diar 2020 98.3 91.4 2.73 0.1 0.2 5 Years CDS Price (BPS) WTD Δ (BPS) MTD Δ (BPS) YTD Δ (BPS) Germany 21.7 (0.6) (0.1) (0.1) France 41.4 2.3 4.4 4.4 QGIB 2021 107.9 86.8 2.53 0.1 0.4 Italy 154.6 (2.3) (2.7) (2.7) QGIB 2022 107.4 96.3 2.83 0.1 0.3 1,094.2 14.2 46.7 46.7 QGS 2023 102.2 81.8 2.75 (0.4) (0.1) QGIB 2026 97.8 128.8 3.49 0.5 1.0 QGIB 2030 157.4 181.2 4.10 1.7 2.5 QGIB 2040 127.4 202.6 4.42 0.7 2.2 QGIB 2042 118.5 203.8 4.48 0.3 1.7 QGIB 2046 102.9 195.9 4.42 1.3 2.6 Greece Russia 181.7 (0.0) (49.7) (49.7) Japan 30.0 0.9 (0.0) (0.0) Turkey 286.7 1.5 13.5 13.5 Brazil 252.5 (7.1) (28.3) (28.3) Egypt 431.7 (13.8) (20.7) (20.7) GCC Source: Bloomberg, QCB US Swap Rates Abu Dhabi 58.5 0.2 (2.9) (2.9) Tenor Bahrain 267.9 (2.7) (34.5) (34.5) Dubai 145.0 4.6 (4.9) Price (%) Weekly Δ (BPS) YTD Δ (BPS) 3M LIBOR 1.022 0.012 0.024 (4.9) 6M LIBOR 1.333 0.008 0.015 12M LIBOR 1.698 0.013 0.012 2 years 1.492 0.008 0.035 5 years 1.949 (0.009) (0.029) 10 years 2.280 (0.013) (0.059) 30 years 2.523 0.002 (0.072) Qatar 82.4 4.2 2.1 2.1 Saudi Arabia 115.5 2.2 2.1 2.1 International Credit Spreads iTraxx Europe 69.1 0.4 69.1 69.1 iTraxx Europe Crossover 288.7 0.7 288.7 288.7 Source: Bloomberg CDX North America IG 66.0 1.4 66.0 66.0 Commentary CDX North America HY 351.0 8.3 351.0 351.0 iTraxxSovX CEEMEA NA NA NA NA iTraxx Europe Senior Financial 60.9 (3.0) 60.9 60.9 iTraxx Europe Sub Financial 111.5 1.8 111.5 111.5 Treasury yields fell last week as US stock prices pared their early gains and DBRS downgraded Italy's bond rating, reviving some safe haven bids for bonds. US Treasury yields however rose on Friday as positive economic data such as rise in producer price and retail sales supported the notion of a steady US economic expansion. Hawkish statement from Fed Chair and other regional Fed officials also benefitted yields. Nevertheless, the 10-year yield was down 3.8 basis points over the week despite rising 2.2 basis points on Friday. Source: Bloomberg 3
4. WEEKLY WRAP January 15 , 2017 COMMODITIES Commodities Price Commentary Brent (USD/bbl) 55.5 WTI Crude (USD/bbl) 52.4 Oil prices fell during the last week as sentiments weakened by concerns over the economic health of the world's second largest oil consumer China. Oil prices were further pressured by reports of rise in US crude stockpiles and ship loading data suggesting that exports from Iraq are set to increase in February-17. The price decline was however partially offset after an upbeat comments from Saudi Arabian and Russian officials about production cuts. OPEC expects global oil inventories to fall by Q2-2017. Copper prices surged driven by data showing that China’s copper imports soared in December-16. Gold prices rose 1.9% as ongoing US political uncertainties continued to support demand for the safe haven commodity. Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) 3.4 Gold (USD/t oz.) 1,196.2 Silver (USD/t oz.) 16.8 Copper (USD/lb) 269.0 Source: Bloomberg Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) 5.7 Natural Gas 7.4 Silver 4.1 1.9 1.5 Silver 3.9 Brent (2.9) WTI Crude (3.0) (4.0) 5.3 (2.4) (2.5) Natural Gas (8.2) (2.0) 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 (10.0) Source: Bloomberg (5.0) 0.0 5.0 10.0 Source: Bloomberg FX Currencies Price Currencies Price GBP/USD 1.2212 USD/INR 67.6563 EUR/USD 1.0673 USD/CNY 6.9005 CAD/USD 0.7625 USD/TRY 3.7233 AUD/USD 0.7502 USD/EGP 18.7285 NZD/USD 0.7131 USD/ZAR 13.5157 114.4900 USD/RUB 59.5782 USD/JPY Commentary USD got support from strong US retail sales growth and upbeat remarks by Fed Chair- Janet Yellen and other Fed officials underscored the Central Bank’s hawkish stance for 2017. EUR closed higher against USD, as ECB minutes revealed discord about extending QE program which hinted that the Eurozone economic conditions are improving. TRY came under pressure during the week as Moody’s issued warning over a spike in NPLs held by Turkish banks in the wake of slump in the country’s economic situation. Commodity-linked currencies NZD and AUD strengthened against USD, following an upbeat Chinese manufacturing and inflation data. Source: Bloomberg Weekly Performance (%) AUD NZD JPY ZAR EUR CAD CNY INR RUB GBP TRY EGP YTD Performance (%) 2.8 2.5 2.2 1.9 AUD RUB NZD CAD JPY ZAR EUR CNY INR GBP EGP TRY (5.4) 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.0 (0.1) (0.9) (2.1) (5.0) (6.0) (5.0) Source: Bloomberg (4.0) (3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 4.1 3.3 2.8 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.2 0.8 (0.3) (1.3) (4.3) (6.0) (4.0) (2.0) 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 Source: Bloomberg DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the informa tion provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4