MENA Market Report - 10 July

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Monday , July 10, 2017 Overview Regional Markets: Trading activity within MENA region was mostly mixed as weakness in oil prices weighed on investor sentiments adding to cautiousness seen over the past couple of weeks. Further, oil prices dropping towards the end of the previous week is also not helping regional governments in gradually accelerating spending to stimulate economic activity. Currently there is lack of positive news flow to drive markets higher and change the momentum, which has been mostly range bound. For the day, four out of the eight indexes closed in red, while three ended in green and one remained unchanged. Saudi Arabia was the worst performer as it was down by 0.5% for the day, which was dragged lower by selling pressures in the petchem sector stocks due to drop in oil prices, which is likely to impact margins going forward. Egypt was marginally lower by 0.1% for the day as the market didn't react too much to the 200 bps increase in rates by the Central Bank. Kuwait was the best performing index as it was up by 0.7% for the day after declining by 1.2% in the previous week. UAE markets closed on a positive note as Abu Dhabi was up by 0.3%, while Dubai was flat for the day. Qatar closed marginally lower by 0.2% for the day, continuing the downward trend as investors offload their positions. Bahrain closed marginally lower by 0.1%, while Oman was up by 0.3% for the day. International Markets: At the time of writing this report, Asian markets have opened on a slightly positive note as Nikkei and Hang Seng are up by 0.6% and 0.5% respectively, while Shanghai is down by 0.3%. Headlines (WW) Plan for U.S. tax increase on rich not being considered (AE) UAE SMEs report triple-digit growth (WW) Chinese mainland tourists world's biggest spenders (AE) Dubai non-oil foreign trade up 2.7 per cent (WW) France says Europe should make U.S. companies pay fair share of taxes (AE) Dubai property doldrums challenge post-crisis rout (WW) UK-U.S. trade deal will not make up for leaving the EU (AE) UAE shines as sustainable energy pathbreaker (WW) Tax and spending cuts possible at the same time, French finance minister says (SA) Dependent fee creates panic among expats in Saudi (WW) 'Japanese Disease' threatening global economies (SA) Madinah hotel occupancy hits 90% during Eid (WW) India Surpasses China, Becomes New Global Economic Growth Pole (QA) Qatar's non-oil exports reached QR1.5bn in May (WW) Inflation elusive, but central bankers getting twitchy (QA) Qatar's economic fundamentals seen weakening as sanctions bite (CMD) Oil Posts Weekly Decline as U.S. Drillers Resume Expansion (QA) Qatar's private sector helps overcome blockade (CMD) Weak demand in India, China dents gold, silver prices (QA) Qatar's central banker boasts $340B in reserves (FX) Forex Speculators Cut US Dollar Bullish Positions To Lowest Level (EG) Egypt's central bank says $57 bln cash flow into banks in 8 months (FX) Egyptian pound fist to fist with US dollar yet again (KW) Kuwait to invest $8bln in petrochemicals projects (FI) Rise in bonds, equities offsets weaker ETFs, Reits in June (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,402.66 0.0% Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,410.50 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% -3.6% ˄ ˅ ˅ 0.3% -0.3% -3.0% ˅ ˅ ˄ Saudi (SASEIDX) 7,166.77 -0.5% -0.5% -3.5% -0.6% ˄ ˄ ˄ Kuwait (KWSE) 6,723.57 0.7% 0.7% -0.6% 17.0% ˅ ˅ ˄ Egypt (EGX30) 13,354.62 -0.1% -0.1% -0.3% 8.2% ˅ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 8,904.16 -0.2% -0.2% -1.4% -14.7% ˅ ˅ ˅ Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,310.04 -0.1% -0.1% 0.0% 7.3% ˅ ˅ ˄ Oman (MSM30) 5,134.88 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% -11.2% ˅ ˅ ˅ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 198 295 386 79 95 142 79,741 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 116 110 134 36 47 60 130,934 Saudi (SASEIDX) 111 176 185 541 823 901 455,408 Kuwait (KWSE) 51 122 320 24 48 97 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 197 275 298 67 75 84 20,497 Qatar (DSM) 5 11 11 32 79 91 104,969 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 2 4 4 1 2 2 20,248 Oman (MSM30) 8 14 17 3 6 9 14,125 Index * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters ** indicates markets were closed on Sunday. 1
2. MENA Morning Report Monday , July 10, 2017 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 PB 12.1 11.7 11.0 9.1 386.2 8.4 300 8 239.3 188.3 4 1.1 1.5 2.0 1.8 1.3 0.9 0.9 Qatar Bahrain Oman - - - 178.1 106.9 87.2 1.4 0 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Year to Date Perfomance DividendYield 8% 27% 6.2% 6% Current 489.3 13.7 10.9 12 Previous 600 5.1% 4.7% 4.3% 4% 17.0% 18% 5.5% 3.1% 7.3% 8.2% 9% 3.6% 0% -9% -3.6% -3.0% -0.6% 2% -18% 0.0% 0% -11.2% -14.7% 0.0% -27% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Monday , July 10, 2017 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) GULF NAVIGATION HOLDING PJSC 1.45 -2.76% 372 548 20,784 DXB ENTERTAINMENTS PJSC 0.75 -1.34% 7,793 5,861 2,264 2,468 MARKA PJSC 0.70 -1.29% 70 50 1,007 882 ARAMEX PJSC 5.41 -0.92% 61 331 1.19% 2,408 1,005 AJMAN BANK PJSC 1.12 -0.89% 157 176 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) UNION CEMENT CO PSC 1.21 11.57% 326 374 BANK OF SHARJAH PJSC 1.30 -3.08% 10 13 RAS AL KHAIMAH CEMENT CO PSC 0.75 6.67% 11 8 MANAZEL REAL ESTATE PJSC 0.52 -1.92% 2,643 1,388 ABU DHABI NATIONAL ENERGY CO 0.50 4.00% 1,614 792 AGTHIA GROUP PJSC 5.50 -1.27% 4 21 SUDATEL TELECOM GROUP LTD 0.53 3.77% 1,034 538 METHAQ TAKAFUL INSURANCE CO 0.86 -1.16% 248 215 ABU DHABI NATIONAL HOTELS CO 3.00 3.33% 1 3 ESHRAQ PROPERTIES COMPANY PJSC 0.94 -1.06% 3,683 3,480 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) SAUDI RESEARCH AND MARKETING 37.20 9.27% 1,340 47,737 ARAB SEA INFORMATION SYSTEMS CO 14.10 -9.93% 87 1,293 NATIONAL AGRICULTURE MARKETING 32.20 7.14% 1,598 49,728 AL-OMRAN INDUSTRIAL AND TRADING 22.08 -9.33% 5 106 TALEEM REIT FUND 12.86 5.75% 3,561 44,546 DEVELOPMENT WORKS FOOD CO 76.50 -5.23% 7 520 ARABIAN PIPES CO SJSC 13.20 4.55% 640 8,267 SAUDI ELECTRICITY COMPANY SJSC 24.24 -3.63% 2,285 56,429 DALLAH HEALTHCARE CO 106.80 3.56% 31 3,229 ABDULLAH SAAD MOHAMMED ABO 12.00 -3.50% 86 1,049 Top Gainers Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) EYAS FOR HIGER AND TECHNICAL 750.00 13.33% 195 138 CREDIT RATING AND COLLECTION CO 32.00 -15.63% 2 0 REAL ESTATE ASSET MANAGEMENT 350.00 10.86% 0 0 KUWAIT FINANCE AND INVESTMENT 40.00 -12.00% 30 1 NATIONAL PETROLEUM SERVICES CO 1490.0 0 7.99% 0 0 AL MASSALEH REAL ESTATE CO KSCP 44.60 -10.31% 30 1 NATIONAL MOBILE TELECOMM CO 1010.0 0 7.72% 3 3 NATIONAL INDUSTRIES COMPANY 198.00 -9.09% 35 7 MUNSHAAT REAL ESTATE PROJECTS 56.00 -7.68% 1,069 62 EKTTITAB HOLDING CO KSCP Top Gainers 35.10 Close * 6.84% DoD % 0 Volume ('000) 0 Value (EGP ‘000) Close DoD % Volume Value MISR NATIONAL STEEL SAE 14.42 9.99% 1 17 MISR CEMENT CO SAE 142.18 -7.95% 6 827 ALEXANDRIA NATIONAL COMPANY 3.75 9.87% 4 13 MOHANDES INSURANCE CO SAE 8.08 -6.31% 7 57 ALEXANDRIA FLOUR MILLS & BAKERIE 36.24 9.82% 7 238 SHOROUK FOR MODERN PRINTING 11.05 -6.24% 1 13 CAIRO NATIONAL CO 4.30 9.53% 38 155 MISR REFRIGERATION AND AIR 85.00 -5.19% 1 49 SOUTH CAIRO AND GIZA MILLS 41.26 9.02% 5 201 SHARM DREAMS COMPANY 4.80 -4.17% 121 595 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) DOHA INSURANCE CO QSC 13.42 4.32% 36 473 QATAR INSURANCE CO SAQ 67.70 -2.36% 14 942 QATAR ISLAMIC INSURANCE CO QSC 62.40 4.01% 8 491 QATAR GAS TRANSPORT CO LTD 18.28 -2.08% 326 6,024 AL KHALEEJ TAKAFUL GROUP QSC 16.00 2.50% 12 187 QATAR NAVIGATION QSC 73.70 -0.95% 19 1,439 QATAR INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING 41.00 2.44% 1 39 QATARI GERMAN COMPANY 7.65 -0.92% 14 105 GULF WAREHOUSING CO QSC 45.00 1.78% 4 195 MESAIEED PETROCHEMICAL HOLDING 13.15 -0.76% 79 1,046 Close DoD % Volume Value ARABTEC HOLDING PJSC 3.23 7.43% 0 129,911 DRAKE AND SCULL INTERNATIONAL 0.38 2.92% 0 DAR AL TAKAFUL PJSC 1.10 1.82% DUBAI ISLAMIC INSURANCE 0.88 1.47% ISLAMIC ARAB INSURANCE CO PSC 0.42 Dubai Top Gainers Abu Dhabi Top Gainers Egypt Kuwait Saudi Arabia Top Gainers Qatar Top Gainers Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Monday , July 10, 2017 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 80,800 101.00 -0.4% 10.4% 3,185 85,792 105.40 76.00 15 1.9 5.9% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 41,083 17.35 0.0% -7.7% 483 2,282 20.20 17.10 17 3.4 4.6% 3 Saudi Telecom Company SJSC SA 39,147 73.40 -0.8% 0.0% 107 2,090 78.90 51.00 0 0.0 0.0% 4 Qatar National Bank SAQ QA 31,613 124.60 1.3% -15.9% 219 7,498 157.27 121.70 9 1.6 2.6% 5 First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC AE 30,413 10.25 0.5% 2.6% 1,452 4,052 11.55 8.30 10 1.2 4.4% 6 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp SA 27,863 64.30 -1.1% 2.1% 1,604 27,505 71.70 48.60 13 2.0 3.5% 7 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 26,667 50.00 -1.0% 17.4% 365 4,867 58.00 32.00 11 1.6 3.2% 8 Saudi Electricity Company SJSC SA 25,955 23.36 -3.6% 4.3% 2,285 14,233 26.05 14.30 12 1.4 3.0% 9 DP World Ltd AE 17,828 21.48 -0.1% 22.7% 17 100 23.85 15.53 18 2.0 1.8% 10 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 17,721 71.50 -0.1% -4.3% 89 1,701 76.00 46.00 76 6.5 0.0% 11 Almarai Co SJSC SA 17,600 82.50 -1.7% 20.4% 131 2,876 98.30 51.50 33 5.2 1.1% 12 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 15,642 50.20 0.8% 28.7% 815 10,916 53.80 27.80 831 2.3 0.0% 13 Industries Qatar QSC QA 15,522 93.40 -0.6% -20.5% 16 402 122.00 91.10 18 1.8 4.3% 14 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 15,088 7.74 -0.4% 8.6% 779 1,643 8.08 6.33 10 1.3 1.9% 15 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 13,371 684.00 -0.7% 10.5% 448 1,011 723.81 523.81 14 1.3 4.2% 16 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 12,693 23.80 -2.1% -2.3% 244 1,549 27.10 15.90 10 1.1 4.0% 17 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 12,333 8.15 0.0% -4.0% 249 553 9.00 7.60 7 0.8 4.9% 18 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 10,091 7.13 1.4% 3.3% 79 154 7.68 5.66 9 1.3 5.6% 19 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 10,000 25.00 2.9% 0.0% 156 1,042 28.40 16.40 10 1.2 2.8% 20 Kingdom Holding Co SA 9,833 9.95 0.7% -16.7% 24 64 12.95 9.80 69 1.3 5.0% 21 Banque Saudi Fransi SJSC SA 9,222 28.70 -2.7% 10.0% 73 557 32.10 18.00 10 1.1 3.7% 22 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 9,219 484.00 0.6% -1.4% 773 1,236 572.73 400.00 13 1.6 0.0% 23 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 8,904 12.22 1.2% -19.1% 125 418 20.24 10.72 15 1.0 4.1% 24 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 8,592 10.74 -1.6% -7.0% 483 1,382 11.80 8.55 10 0.9 6.1% 25 Emirates Islamic Bank PJSC AE 8,576 5.80 0.0% 0.0% 1 1 11.95 1.57 106 4.6 0.0% 26 Emaar Malls Group PJSC AE 8,504 2.40 -0.4% 0.0% 531 347 3.00 2.38 17 1.9 0.0% 27 Masraf Al Rayan QSC QA 8,148 39.55 -0.4% 5.2% 71 776 45.40 33.05 15 2.5 5.1% 28 Ooredoo QSC QA 8,068 91.70 -0.3% -9.9% 18 463 116.10 88.00 15 1.3 3.8% 29 Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co SJSC SA 7,995 53.30 -0.7% -1.3% 105 1,494 61.75 39.90 12 1.9 5.6% 30 Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC AE 7,535 5.60 0.4% 0.5% 819 1,249 6.29 5.01 9 1.2 8.0% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 556,027 3.4% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated under the DIFC Companies Law and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). The information contained in this report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or the solicitation of an offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for professionals with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority. 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