MENA Daily Fixed Income Report - 15 February

Transcription

1. MENA Daily Fixed Income Report – 15 February 2021 Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” News Updates GCC Sovereign Yields Kuwaiti pension fund profits rose 44% in third quarter – Kuwait’s Sovereigns Maturity Yield % Public Institution for Social Security (PIFSS) has announced net profits of Abu Dhabi 2025 0.80 $18.9 billion on investments during the first nine months of the fiscal year Abu Dhabi 2030 1.76 2020-2021. In a statement on its website, the institution said this indicates Abu Dhabi 2050 3.00 it is prepared for any fluctuations in global markets, Asharq Business Bahrain 2026 3.26 reported. Mishaal Al-Othman, director general of PIFSS, said that the Bahrain 2030 4.93 institution, which manages the country’s $132 billion pension fund, Bahrain 2047 6.35 recorded profits of $6.8 billion during the third quarter of the fiscal year Dubai 2029 2.36 (Oct. 1 to Dec. 31). This represented a 44 percent increase on the Kuwait 2022 0.41 previous quarter, and a 57.5 percent increase compared with the third Kuwait 2027 1.25 quarter of the previous year. The total assets of the investment portfolio have grown by 19.4 percent compared with the total at the end of the Bonds and Sukuk Indices Index Name previous financial year. (Source: Zawya) Bahrain's economy to grow 3.3% this year, must cut public debt – IMF – Bahrain’s economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic will be gradual, with growth projected at 3.3% this year after a 5.4% contraction in 2020, the International Monetary Fund said on Sunday. The tiny Gulf state has been battered by the twin shocks of the coronavirus crisis and lower oil prices, which pushed its overall fiscal deficit to 18.2% of gross domestic product last year from a 9% shortfall in 2019, the Fund said. Bahrain has accumulated a large pile of debt since the 2014-2015 oil price shock. A $10 billion financial aid programme from Gulf allies helped it avoid a credit crunch in 2018. Public debt rose to 133% of GDP last year from 102% in 2019, the IMF said. (Source: Reuters) KSA 2025 1.09 Price ∆ (YTD %) 0.14 -1.60 KSA 2030 2.15 -1.30 KSA A1 A-u A -4.61 KSA 2050 3.51 -4.17 UAE Aa2 NR AA- -0.18 Oman 2025 3.47 2.37 AA AA Oman 2029 4.99 2.86 Abu Dhabi Aa2 -1.33 Qatar Aa3 AA- AA- -2.93 Oman 2048 6.73 0.14 0.83 Qatar 2025 0.84 -0.19 Bahrain B2 B+ B+ Oman Ba3 B+ BB- Egypt B2 B B+ Lebanon C SD RD Jordan B1 B+ BB- Turkey B2 B+u BB- Tunisia B2 NR Sovereigns Maturity Yield % -0.57 Qatar 2030 1.81 -1.70 -1.09 Qatar 2050 3.07 -4.26 Yield % Duration (yrs) 1D ∆ (%) YTD ∆ (%) Bloomberg GCC FI Index 2.49 8.08 -0.19 -0.43 S&P MENA Bond and Sukuk Index 2.08 NA -0.14 -0.89 Bloomberg Emerging Markets USD Index 3.55 6.80 -0.14 -0.61 Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index 0.93 7.42 -0.26 -1.32 Interbank Rates (%) KIBOR SAIBOR BHIBOR QATAR AEIBOR Abu Dhabi banks invested $7.1bln in debt securities in 2020 – Abu EURIBOR Dhabi banks invested AED26.1 bn in debt securities during 2020, bringing LIBOR to AED208.6 bn their cumulative investments in this key investment vehicle by December's end, 2020, statistics by the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates have shown. Bonds, such as government bonds, corporate bonds, municipal bonds, collateralized bonds, and zero-coupon bonds, are a common type of debt security. Investing in securities is one of the most popular forms of investment in the UAE banking sector, given the guaranteed proceeds and lack of risk, compared to other investment instruments. According to the bank, UAE banks' total investment in debt securities comprise 63.7 percent of their total balance in their investment vehicles, which include, equities, held-to-maturity bonds, etc. The bank’s statistics showed that Abu Dhabi banks have adopted a clear strategy for investing in debt securities, leading to a continuous growth in this type of investment from January to December 2020. (Source: Zawya) Sovereign Ratings Price ∆ (YTD %) -0.28 3 Months 15/2/2021 31/12/2020 1.5000 1.4375 0.8075 0.8175 2.1667 2.2500 0.9207 1.1206 0.3263 0.5125 -0.5470 -0.5450 0.1938 0.2384 6 Months 15/2/2021 31/12/2020 1.6875 1.6875 0.8550 0.8700 2.4667 2.5333 1.0407 1.1960 0.3913 0.4908 -0.5220 -0.5260 0.2008 0.2576 USD Swap Rates 1-Year 2-Year 5-Year 7-Year 10-Year 30-Year Yield % 0.1818 0.2060 0.6346 0.9348 1.2885 1.8080 Currencies 1D ∆ (bps) 0.02 0.08 1.74 -0.32 0.28 -0.12 YTD ∆ (%) -5.6 4.1 47.6 42.8 39.3 29.0 US Treasuries 2-Year 5-Year 10-Year 30-Year 12 Months 15/2/2021 31/12/2020 2.0000 1.9375 0.9288 0.9413 2.6833 2.6833 1.2647 1.3636 0.5425 0.6538 -0.5020 -0.4990 0.2998 0.3419 KWD SAR BHD QAR OMR AED USD 0.3024 3.7510 0.3771 3.6412 0.3850 3.6731 UK Guilts Yield % 0.11 0.49 1.21 2.01 1D ∆ (%) 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.05 Yield % -0.05 0.08 0.51 1.10 1D ∆ (bps) 0.0000 0.0027 -0.0027 -0.0055 0.0000 0.0000 YTD ∆ (%) 0.31 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 German Bunds 1D ∆ (%) -0.02 -0.08 -0.59 -1.24 Yield % -0.66 -0.73 -0.53 0.07 1D ∆ (%) -0.01 -0.07 -0.26 -1.50 Moody’s S&P Kuwait A1 AA- Fitch AA B Morocco Ba1 BBB- BB+ US Aaa AA+u AAA UK Aa3 AAu AA- China A1 A+ A+ USD 5Yr CDS 15-Feb 2021 31-Dec 2020 Kuwait 40.69 40.69 KSA 61.23 63.77 Abu Dhabi 39.88 36.03 Dubai 92.09 104.06 Qatar 39.76 36.70 Bahrain 225.38 233.58 Oman 327.60 353.60 Iraq 484.63 542.74 Egypt 309.05 330.47 Morocco 97.45 102.56 Turkey 287.32 299.47 US 9.71 11.52 UK 14.01 15.13 China 28.37 26.70 Japan 14.42 14.74 Germany 9.92 9.09 France 13.72 14.42 Source: Bloomberg This report has been prepared and issued by Kuwait Financial Centre K.P.S.C. (Markaz) , which is regulated by the Capital Markets Authority and the Central Bank of Kuwait. The report is owned by Markaz and is privileged and proprietary and is subject to copyrights. Sale of any copies of this report is strictly prohibited. This report can not be published. A number of sources which include Bloomberg, Zawya, and daily newspapers were utilized in the creation of this report.