Malaysian Markets Weekly Wrap - Week Ended 28 April

Transcription

1. WEEKLY WRAP : Week ended 28 April 17  Buoyant offshore markets helped the FBM KLCI to register a weekly gain of 0.7% to close at 1,768 points for the week.  Regional and global markets rose on easing political uncertainties in Europe after a pro-European Union (EU) candidate emerged as the frontrunner to win the second round of the French presidential election on 7 May.  Looking ahead, investors will focus on the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) statement on 2-3 May, the final outcome of the French election and the upcoming U.S. non-farm jobs data for April. Performance of Key Indices (As at 28 April 17) Region Market FBM KLCI FTSE Bursa Malaysia EMAS Shariah Index Local South East Asia North Asia Wall Street Europe Straits Times Index Jakarta Composite Index China ‘H’ Shares Shanghai Composite Index Dow Jones Nasdaq STOXX Europe 50 Index Index 1,768 12,972 % Weekly Change +0.7 +1.0 3,175 +1.1 5,685 10,220 3,155 20,941 6,048 3,183 +0.4 +1.7 -0.6 +1.9 +2.3 +2.2 1. Stock Market Commentary Market Comments Sentiment supported by higher offshore markets: Led by buying support for blue Local chips and higher offshore markets, the FBM KLCI rose over the week to reach a 2-year intraday high of 1,772 points on Friday. The FBM KLCI subsequently closed at 1,768 points to register a weekly gain of 0.7%. The FBM EMAS Shariah Index edged up by 1.0% to close at 12,972 points for the week. Meanwhile, the FBM Small Cap Index closed 1.6% higher over the week. Regional Relief rally on reduced political uncertainties in Europe: Regional markets generally moved higher over the week on easing political uncertainties in Europe after a pro-EU candidate emerged as the frontrunner to win the second round of the French presidential election on 7 May. Japan’s TOPIX and the Hong Kong market advanced by 2.9% and 2.4% respectively over the week. However, the Shanghai Composite Index registered a weekly decline of 0.6% amid an ongoing clampdown on speculative financial activities. South-East Asian markets generally closed higher with both the Philippine and Singapore markets registering a weekly gain of 1.1% each. Down under, the Australian market closed 1.2% higher over the same period on the back of positive corporate earnings reports. Page 1 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Global Markets Rebounded After First Round of the French Presidential Election
2. Comments Strong corporate earnings lifted the market : Bolstered by strong U.S. corporate earnings results, the Dow trended higher to touch a near 2-month intraday high of 21,071 points on Wednesday. However, the index subsequently eased as sentiment was weighed by the lack of clarity on the U.S. tax proposal plan and the release of weaker-thanexpected GDP data. The Dow closed at 20,941 points to register a weekly gain of 1.9%. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq closed 2.3% higher at 6,048 points over the same period. Europe European markets, as proxied by the STOXX Europe 50 Index, grew by 2.2% as investors were relieved by the market-friendly outcome of the first round of the French presidential election. Selected Markets’ Weekly Performances % Weekly change +1.6 +1.0 +0.7 % YTD change +20.0 +8.0 +7.7 28 Apr’ 17 21 Apr’ 17 FBM Small Cap Index FBM EMAS Shariah Index FBM KLCI 17,662 12,972 1,768 17,384 12,848 1,756 South-East Asia Singapore Philippines Indonesia Thailand 3,175 7,661^ 5,685 1,566 3,140 7,578 5,664 1,570 +1.1 +1.1 +0.4 -0.2 +10.2 +12.0 +7.3 +1.5 North Asia TOPIX (Japan) Hong Kong MSCI FEXJ# South Korea China*, H Share Taiwan MSCI China SH Comp (China) 1,532 24,615 557 2,205 10,220 9,872 6,968 3,155 1,489 24,042 547 2,165 10,050 9,717 6,867 3,173 +2.9 +2.4 +1.9 +1.9 +1.7 +1.6 +1.5 -0.6 +0.9 +11.9 +15.2 +8.8 +8.8 +6.7 +16.3 +1.6 +2.3 +2.2 +1.9 +1.9 +1.3 +1.2 # in USD +12.3 +5.7 +7.9 +6.0 +0.9 +4.6 Global Nasdaq 6,048 5,911 ** Europe 3,183 3,115 MSCI World# 455 447 Dow Jones 20,941 20,548 FTSE 100 (U.K.) 7,204 7,115 Australia 5,924 5,854 * Hang Seng China Enterprises Index **STOXX Europe 50 Index ^ As at 27 April 2017 2. Economic Commentary Market Commentary Malaysia - On a weekly basis, the Ringgit strengthened by 1.4% to close at RM4.34 against the US$ on continued buying support for the local currency. On a year-to-date basis, the Ringgit appreciated by 3.4% against the greenback. Page 2 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Market Wall Street
3. U .S. - Advance estimates show that U.S. GDP growth eased slightly from 2.0% in 4Q2016 to 1.9% in 1Q2017 as the moderation in consumer spending was partly mitigated by a rebound in investment spending. MARKET BRIEF US GDP Growth Composition (YoY %) 4Q2016 1Q2017 Consumption 3.1 2.8 Private Investment 0.1 2.0 Exports 1.5 3.1 GDP 2.0 1.9 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis - The monthly increase in U.S. home prices, as proxied by the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices Index, climbed to 5.9% in March from 5.7% in February. - The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index edged up to 97.0 in April from 96.9 in March as consumers remained optimistic about the economy in general. Japan - The inflation rate inched down to 0.2% in March from 0.3% in February amid moderating food prices and transportation costs. South Korea - Based on preliminary estimates, South Korea’s GDP growth rose from 2.4% in 4Q2016 to 2.7% in 1Q2017 on the back of higher consumer and investment spending as well as stronger exports. Taiwan - Advance estimates showed that Taiwan’s GDP growth slowed from 2.9% in 4Q2016 to 2.6% in 1Q2017 due to lower government spending and moderating export growth. Singapore - The inflation rate was sustained at 0.7% in March compared to a similar rate in February as lower housing and utility costs were mitigated by higher transportation costs. Commodity - On a weekly basis, Brent crude oil prices edged down by 0.4% to close at US$51.73/brl. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices moved marginally lower by 0.02% to close at US$49.33/brl over the same period. Fig 2. Weekly Brent Crude Oil & Ringgit Trends US$/RM US$/brl 52.5 0.231 52.0 0.230 0.229 51.5 0.228 51.0 0.227 50.5 0.226 21-Apr 24-Apr 25-Apr Brent Crude Oil (LHS) - 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr USD per Ringgit (RHS) The CRB Commodity Price Index, which measures a broad range of commodities such as food, metals and raw materials, closed 0.8% higher at 424.54 points. Page 3 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
4. Regional & Global GDP Statistics Source: Bloomberg 2017F 6.6 6.5 5.3 4.4 2.1 2.0 2.5 2.0 2.5 3.3 1.2 2.3 1.7 2016 6.7 6.8 5.0 4.2 1.9 2.0 2.8 1.5 2.5 3.2 1.0 1.6 1.7 f=consensus forecast * 2018F 6.2 6.5 5.5 4.5 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.2 2.8 3.4 0.6 2.5 1.6 MARKET BRIEF GDP Growth (%) China* Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Hong Kong Singapore South Korea Taiwan Australia Thailand Japan* U.S.* Eurozone* IMF forecast Regional & Global Inflation Statistics Inflation rate (%) China Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Hong Kong Singapore South Korea Taiwan Australia Thailand Japan U.S. Eurozone 2016 2.0 1.8 3.5 2.1 2.4 -0.5 1.3 1.4 1.3 0.2 -0.1 1.3 0.2 2017F 2.1 3.1 4.3 2.7 2.0 1.0 1.9 1.4 2.2 1.6 0.7 2.5 1.6 2018F 2.3 3.1 4.5 2.6 2.5 1.5 1.9 1.3 2.2 2.0 1.0 2.3 1.5 Source: Bloomberg f=consensus forecast Regional & Global Markets’ Valuations Australia China ‘H’ Shares Hong Kong Shanghai Comp Thailand Singapore Taiwan Philippines Indonesia Japan South Korea U.S. (1) Europe Historic P/E(2) (x) 14.60 10.84 12.73 15.86 12.84 14.27 15.28 16.10 14.78 17.51 11.32 17.27(3) 13.93(3) Prospective P/E (x) 16.37 8.25 12.26 13.70 15.24 14.62 13.82 18.62^ 16.20 13.87 9.61 18.43 15.55 Estimated Dividend Yield (%) 4.32 3.63 3.42 1.98 3.00 3.50 4.00 1.64^ 1.97 2.12 1.74 2.04 3.97 ^ Source: Bloomberg, 28 Apr’17 As at 27 April 2017 (1) S&P500 Index (2) 2007-2016 historical average (3) 1997-2016 historical average Page 4 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
5. On the regional front , improving external demand was the driver of 1Q2017 GDP growth for several regional economies. Continued improvement in global trade activities and stabilising commodity prices will help support regional economic growth in 2Q2017. Regional currencies continued to hold their ground against the US$ amid renewed interest in emerging market currencies following the first round of the French presidential election. For the domestic economy, the key drivers for 2017 are a gradual recovery in global economic growth, stabilising commodity prices and sustained domestic demand. Key economic data such as trade flows will be monitored closely to provide guidance on Malaysia’s economic performance in the second quarter of the year. As at 28 April 2017, the local market traded above its historical average P/E ratio: - P/E valuation: prospective P/E ratio of 16.7x versus its 10-year historical average of 16.4x. - Dividend yield: 3.15% was above the 12-month F.D. rate of 3.11%*. The average P/E ratio of the regional markets, as proxied by the MSCI Far East ex-Japan Index, traded below its 10-year historical average: - Regional P/E valuations: 12.7x versus the 10-year historical average of 13.5x. * The average F.D. rate offered by four key domestic banks Bursa Securities’ Market Valuations FBM KLCI PER (x) Dividend Yield 3mth InterBk 12mth FD, % ^ 28 Apr’ 17 1,768 16.66 3.15% 3.43% 3.10% 2007-2016 historical average 21 Apr’ 17 1,756 16.53 3.17% 3.43% 3.10% Source: Bloomberg Bursa Securities' 10-Year P/E Ratio MSCI FE ex-Japan's 10-Year P/E Ratio 25 20 28 Apr' 2017 P/E: 16.7x 28 Apr' 2017 P/E: 12.7x P/E Ratio (x) 20 P/E Ratio (x) 10-yr av.^ 16.43 3.56% 3.27% - 15 10 15 10 Average: 16.4x 5 Average: 13.5x 5 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Page 5 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF 3. Market Outlook & Valuations Led by reduced political uncertainties in Europe and resilient U.S. corporate earnings results, global equities, as proxied by the MSCI All Country World Index, touched a record high of 456 points on 26 April. Looking forward, investors will focus on the FOMC’s statement on 2-3 May, the final outcome of the French election and the upcoming U.S. non-farm jobs data for April. While the FOMC is widely expected to maintain the Federal funds rate at 0.75%-1.00% at this Wednesday’s meeting, investors will assess its statement to ascertain the timing of upcoming rate hikes in subsequent meetings.
6. 4 . Bond Market Commentary & Outlook U.S. Treasuries (UST) - For the week ended 28 April 2017, the U.S. Treasury (UST) market weakened, weighed by risk-on sentiment post the first round of the French presidential election. UST prices rebounded mildly towards the end of the week as the White House provided scant detail on the proposed tax reform plan and amid disappointing U.S. 1Q2017 GDP growth data. The 10-year UST yield rose by 3 basis points (bps) to close at 2.28% over the week. Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) - The MGS market was well-supported for the week. Risk appetite surged post the first round of the French presidential election. This boosted the Ringgit and demand for Ringgit-denominated government bonds. Sentiment was also lifted following the rise in Malaysia’s foreign reserves to US$95.7 billion as at 14 April, compared with US$95.4 billion on 31 March. MGS yields eased across the tenures with the 10-year yield easing by 6 bps to close at 4.05%. - Overall, the bond funds registered positive performances over the week, underpinned by resilient corporate bond prices. Local Corporate Bonds & Bond Funds’ Performance Foreign Exchange Weekly Change of Selected Currencies versus the US$ Currency per Weekly % US$ change Euro 0.91 +2.2 Ringgit 4.34 +1.4 Pound Sterling 0.77 +1.2 Singapore Dollar 1.40 +0.1 Indonesia Rupiah 13,328 -0.1 Chinese Yuan 6.90 -0.1 Australian Dollar 1.34 -0.7 Dollar Index* 99.05 -0.9 Japanese Yen 111.46 -2.1 YTD % change +3.7 +3.4 +5.2 +3.5 +0.7 +0.7 +3.3 -3.1 +4.8 Source: Bloomberg *An index of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. Bond Market Outlook - In the coming week, the focus will be on the 2-3 May FOMC statement, the second round of the French presidential election and the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data for April. On the domestic front, investors will focus on the newly-implemented short-selling measure for MGS, which was expanded to all resident entities with effect from 2 May 2017. This liberalisation measure is expected to improve market liquidity going forward. - In the medium term, global bond investors will continue to assess the potential inflationary impact of the U.S. administration’s pro-growth economic policies on the global bond market this year. Over in the Eurozone, the European Central Bank signalled that it sees less need for monetary policy easing going forward. - The Malaysian bond market is expected to be influenced by the repricing of global bonds. Should expectations of the U.S. fiscal stimulus and tax plans be reassessed, the Malaysian bond market should see flows coming back amid the relatively-competitive Ringgit. Page 6 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Commentary
7. (in %) 28 Apr’ 17 KLIBOR U.S. T Bill U.S. T Note MGS 'AAA' Corp 'AA' Corp U.S. T Note MGS 'AAA' Corp. 'AA' Corp U.S. T Bond MGS 'AAA' Corp. 'AA' Corp 21 Apr’ 17 3 Month Interest Rates 3.43 3.43 0.79 0.77 3 Year 1.44 1.40 3.21 3.32 4.21 4.21 4.52 4.52 5 Year 1.81 1.77 3.68 3.76 4.37 4.37 4.66 4.66 10 Year 2.28 2.25 4.05 4.11 4.71 4.72 4.94 4.95 MARKET BRIEF Change in Interest Rates & Bond Yields % change* 0 +2 +4 -11 0 0 +4 -8 0 0 +3 -6 -1 -1 *in basis points Source: Bank Negara Malaysia Page 7 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
8. Performance of Equity and Balanced Funds * Local Funds PSF PGF PIX PINDGF PAGF PRSF PBF P SmallCap PEF PFSF PDSF PSSF PSA30F POGF PBBF PBGF PBGSQF PSSCF PBMAC PBBSQF PSMACF PSMAGF PSTGF PBDBEF PSTEF PAVGEF PGRBF PBSCGF PRSSQF PEMOF PBMAGRF 28 Apr’17 21 Apr’17 0.5365 0.4786 0.6660 0.5132 0.6351 0.6090 0.6810 0.9346 0.2654 0.2846 0.2763 0.2995 0.2925 0.3161 0.8046 0.7989 0.2755 0.3366 0.2576 0.2608 0.2876 0.2779 0.2882 0.2707 0.2874 0.2837 0.2682 0.2644 0.2645 0.2767 0.2612 0.5328 0.4754 0.6597 0.5084 0.6310 0.6051 0.6783 0.9263 0.2633 0.2802 0.2744 0.2976 0.2904 0.3129 0.8011 0.7903 0.2725 0.3339 0.2560 0.2595 0.2864 0.2763 0.2867 0.2690 0.2834 0.2813 0.2677 0.2623 0.2618 0.2728 0.2601 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.7 +0.7 +0.7 +0.7 +1.0 +1.1 +0.9 +0.7 +0.6 +0.7 +0.6 +1.0 +0.4 +0.4 +0.9 +1.6 +0.8 +0.7 +1.6 +2.4 +0.7 +1.0 +0.6 +1.1 +0.7 +0.7 +1.0 +1.1 +0.4 +0.4 +1.1 +0.7 +1.1 +0.7 +0.8 +1.6 +0.6 +0.3 +0.5 +0.4 +0.4 +0.3 +0.6 +0.5 +0.5 +0.8 +0.6 +1.0 +1.4 +2.0 +0.9 +0.7 +0.2 +0.4 +0.8 +1.4 +1.0 +1.0 +1.4 +1.9 +0.4 +0.5 PFES PRSEC PGSF PFEDF PFEBF PTAF PCSF PFEPRF PSEASF PFECTF PCTF PFETIF PWEF PAUEF PFA30F PINDOSF PBAEF PBADF PBEPEF PBCPEF PBCAEF PBCAUEF PBSGA30EF PBAPENTF PBAREIF PBADBF PBINDOBF PSGEF PBAEGF PBDYNAF PBGEF PSTBLF POEF PBADSQF PNVGF P Ittikal PIEF PIOF PIMXAF PIDF PISSF PISTF PIOGF PISEF PIA40GF PISVF PITGF PITSEQ PBIEF PISGIF PESMACF PESMAGF PIENTEF PIAVGEF PIGRBF PIEMOF PBISCF 21 Apr’17 0.8779 0.3465 0.4341 0.2488 0.3708 0.2650 0.3580 0.2807 0.3850 0.2884 0.2964 0.3005 0.3014 0.2664 0.2435 0.2641 0.3117 0.2584 0.2794 0.2748 0.2818 0.2501 0.8728 0.3441 0.4292 0.2479 0.3692 0.2629 0.3549 0.2792 0.3829 0.2868 0.2953 0.2976 0.2994 0.2649 0.2425 0.2632 0.3110 0.2578 0.2785 0.2734 0.2789 0.2501 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.6 +0.7 +1.1 +0.4 +0.4 +0.8 +0.9 +0.5 +0.5 +0.6 +0.4 +1.0 +0.7 +0.6 +0.4 +0.3 +0.2 +0.2 +0.3 +0.5 +1.0 - +1.0 +1.0 +1.8 +0.7 +0.9 +1.0 +2.0 +1.0 +1.0 +0.7 +0.9 +1.8 +1.0 +1.0 +1.0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.4 +0.7 +0.4 +1.8 +1.8 Public Mutual's Private Retirement Scheme Funds Performance PRS-GRF PRS-MDF PRS-CVF PRS-IGRF PRS-IMDF PRS-ICVF PRS-EQF PRS-SEQF PRS-ISEQF 28 Apr’17 21 Apr’17 0.2572 0.2635 0.2657 0.2836 0.2705 0.2618 0.2757 0.2849 0.2662 0.2559 0.2619 0.2654 0.2822 0.2692 0.2613 0.2738 0.2815 0.2661 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.5 +0.6 +0.1 +0.5 +0.5 +0.2 +0.7 +1.2 +0.04 +0.8 +0.7 +0.1 +0.7 +0.6 +0.1 +0.6 +1.0 +0.2 21 Apr’17 0.3251 0.2709 0.3375 0.2965 0.2758 0.3282 0.2971 0.3073 0.2930 0.2799 0.3305 0.3736 0.2303 0.2856 0.3921 0.3046 0.3057 0.3134 0.2793 0.2890 0.3837 0.2712 0.3088 0.3295 0.3349 0.2914 0.2902 0.3065 0.3118 1.2688 0.3192 0.2765 0.2781 0.2603 0.2501 0.3224 0.2692 0.3345 0.2960 0.2743 0.3250 0.2945 0.3105 0.2948 0.2825 0.3269 0.3760 0.2275 0.2872 0.3869 0.3082 0.3023 0.3148 0.2757 0.2860 0.3842 0.2710 0.3081 0.3272 0.3377 0.2928 0.2944 0.3054 0.3108 1.2583 0.3164 0.2733 0.2752 0.2618 0.2486 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.8 +0.6 +0.6 +0.5 +0.9 +0.5 +0.2 +0.3 +0.5 +0.4 +1.0 +0.4 +0.9 +0.6 -1.0 -1.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.9 -1.5 +1.1 +0.7 -0.6 -1.2 +1.2 +1.0 -0.6 -0.7 +1.3 +1.3 -1.2 -1.1 +1.1 +0.5 -0.4 -0.7 +1.3 +1.3 +1.0 +0.6 -0.1 -0.3 +0.1 -0.3 +0.2 +0.003 +0.7 +0.5 -0.8 -0.9 -0.5 -0.4 -1.4 -0.9 +0.4 +0.003 +0.3 -0.8 +0.8 +0.4 +0.9 +0.9 +1.2 +1.0 +1.1 +1.2 -0.6 -0.7 +0.6 +0.1 Foreign Islamic Funds Local Islamic Funds 28 Apr’17 28 Apr’17 PAIF PIADF PIATAF PCIF PIALEF PBIAEF PBIASSF PIOEF 28 Apr’17 21 Apr’17 0.3435 0.3301 0.3443 0.2816 0.3496 0.2925 0.2651 0.2697 0.3451 0.3317 0.3450 0.2808 0.3513 0.2935 0.2665 0.2684 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 +0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.5 +0.5 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 +0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.3 +0.04 Public Mutual's Bond Funds Performance P BOND PI BOND PIN BOND PEBF PSBF PIEBF PISBF PIINCOME PBFI PBIBF PBINFBF PIINFBF PSTBF PISTBF PSKF PBBOND PBSKF PENTBF PBASF 28 Apr’17 21 Apr’17 0.9577 0.9851 1.0044 1.0277 1.0398 1.0956 1.0455 1.0560 1.0690 1.1666 1.0962 1.0532 1.0512 1.0493 1.0576 1.0564 1.0634 1.0296 1.0434 0.9570 0.9835 1.0034 1.0259 1.0390 1.0932 1.0445 1.0550 1.0683 1.1647 1.0946 1.0515 1.0503 1.0481 1.0560 1.0555 1.0621 1.0287 1.0416 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.1 +0.2 +0.1 +0.2 +0.1 +0.2 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.2 +0.1 +0.2 +0.1 +0.1 +0.2 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.2 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 Public Mutual's Money Market Funds Performance PMMF PIMMF PeCDF PeICDF PBCMF PBCPF PBICMF PBICPF 28 Apr’17 21 Apr’17 1.0014 1.0449 1.0024 1.0022 1.0296 1.0028 1.0240 1.0022 1.0008 1.0442 1.0018 1.0017 1.0290 1.0022 1.0234 1.0017 *Buying price Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.05 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.05 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 Page 8 of 13 FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW Foreign Funds
9. 3 Year Annualised Return Ended 31 March 2017 Fund Volatility Class (FVC) 3-Year Fund Volatility Factor (FVF) # (PAGF) (PDSF) (PEF) (PGF) (PIX) (PINDGF) (POGF) (PRSF) (PSF) (PSSF) (PSA30F) (PBGF) (PBGSQF) 1.2 0.5 2.6 2.9 0.6 2.9 1.9 0.9 1.8 3.8 -0.6 3.7 0.4 Moderate Low Low Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate 6.2 5.8 5.7 5.7 6.8 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.5 6.2 7.7 6.5 7.1 (PIA40GF) (PIDF) (PIEF) (PIOGF) (PISSF) (PISEF) (P ITTIKAL) (PITSEQ) (PISVF) (PBIEF) 1.4 2.3 2.1 0.7 -0.7 0.5 3.0 2.2 2.8 3.0 Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate 6.3 5.7 6.1 6.1 6.4 6.1 5.6 6.3 6.1 6.6 (PFSF) (P SmallCap) (PSSCF) (PIOF) (PISTF) (PITGF) 3.7 9.1 3.7 6.5 6.0 -0.2 Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate High High 7.1 8.1 7.2 7.4 8.2 8.3 (PAUEF) (PCSF) (PCTF) (PFA30F) (PFECTF) (PFEDF) (PFEPRF) (PFES) (PFETIF) (PINDOSF) (PRSEC) (PSGEF) (PSEASF) (PBAEGF) (PBADF) (PBAEF) (PBAPENTF) (PBCAEF) (PBCAUEF) (PBCPEF) (PBSGA30EF) 5.6 19.6 13.8 16.9 3.8 13.9 8.3 14.2 9.3 8.2 10.3 8.9 7.4 9.2 7.7 13.5 10.2 16.7 14.3 20.1 8.0 Very High Very High Very High Very High High High High Very High High Very High High High High High Moderate High Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High 12.2 14.0 14.7 11.4 9.8 10.5 8.6 11.9 8.7 14.3 10.4 10.9 8.3 10.2 7.4 9.6 11.2 12.0 13.3 14.6 11.3 Fund Name I. EQUITY FUNDS Non Regional Funds Public Aggressive Growth Fund Public Dividend Select Fund Public Equity Fund Public Growth Fund Public Index Fund Public Industry Growth Fund Public Optimal Growth Fund Public Regular Savings Fund Public Savings Fund Public Sector Select Fund Public Select Alpha-30 Fund PB Growth Fund PB Growth Sequel Fund Islamic Non Regional Funds Public Islamic Alpha-40 Growth Fund Public Islamic Dividend Fund Public Islamic Equity Fund Public Islamic Optimal Growth Fund Public Islamic Sector Select Fund Public Islamic Select Enterprises Fund Public Ittikal Fund Public Ittikal Sequel Fund Public Islamic Savings Fund PB Islamic Equity Fund Small & Mid Cap Funds Public Focus Select Fund Public SmallCap Fund Public Strategic SmallCap Fund Public Islamic Opportunities Fund Public Islamic Select Treasures Fund Public Islamic Treasures Growth Fund Regional Funds Public Australia Equity Fund Public China Select Fund Public China Titans Fund Public Far-East Alpha-30 Fund Public Far-East Consumer Themes Fund Public Far-East Dividend Fund Public Far-East Property & Resorts Fund Public Far-East Select Fund Public Far-East Telco & Infrastructure Fund Public Indonesia Select Fund Public Regional Sector Fund Public Singapore Equity Fund Public South-East Asia Select Fund PB Asia Emerging Growth Fund PB ASEAN Dividend Fund PB Asia Equity Fund PB Asia Pacific Enterprises Fund PB China ASEAN Equity Fund PB China Australia Equity Fund PB China Pacific Equity Fund PB Singapore Advantage-30 Equity Fund Page 9 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW Return and Volatility Measures for Public Mutual’s Funds For the 3 Years Period Ended 31 March 2017
10. Fund Volatility Class (FVC) 3-Year Fund Volatility Factor (FVF) # (PAIF) (PCIF) (PIADF) (PIALEF) (PBIAEF) (PBIASSF) 10.6 12.1 8.8 10.9 10.2 9.9 High Very High High High High High 9.2 10.5 8.3 10.1 9.2 9.3 (PGSF) (PWEF) (PBEPEF) 12.4 -0.3 11.4 High High High 9.5 10.3 9.3 (PBF) (PFEBF) (PTAF) (PBAREIF) (PBADBF) (PBBF) (PBBSQF) (PBDYNAF) (PBINDOBF) (PBMAC) 3.3 7.4 13.7 6.9 4.9 3.8 1.6 7.8 8.3 2.8 Low Moderate High Low Moderate Low Low High Very High Low 4.3 7.7 9.1 5.8 7.9 4.1 4.1 9.3 11.0 3.2 (PIMXAF) (PIATAF) 0.1 10.2 Low High 5.5 9.0 (PBOND) (PEBF) (PENTBF) (PIN Bond) (PSBF) (PSTBF) (PBBOND) (PBFI) (PBINFBF) 4.3 4.1 4.3 3.8 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.6 Very Low Very Low Very Low n.a. Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Low 1.0 1.5 1.3 n.a. 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.8 (PI BOND) (PIEBF) (PI INCOME) (PIINFBF) (PISBF) (PISTBF) (PSKF) (PBASF) (PBIBF) (PBSKF) 4.8 4.4 3.8 4.7 3.9 4.2 4.5 4.8 4.8 4.6 Very Low Very Low Very Low Low Very Low Very Low Low Low Low Low 1.7 1.5 1.0 1.8 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.9 (PMMF) (PBCMF) (PBCPF) 3.3 3.3 3.3 Very Low Very Low Very Low 0.1 0.1 0.1 (PIMMF) (PBICMF) (PBICPF) 3.2 3.1 3.2 Very Low Very Low Very Low 0.1 0.1 0.1 Fund Name Islamic Regional Funds Public Asia Ittikal Fund Public China Ittikal Fund Public Islamic Asia Dividend Fund Public Islamic Asia Leaders Equity Fund PB Islamic Asia Equity Fund PB Islamic Asia Strategic Sector Fund Global Funds Public Global Select Fund Public Worldwide Equity Fund PB Euro Pacific Equity Fund II. BALANCED FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Balanced Fund Public Far-East Balanced Fund Public Tactical Allocation Fund PB Asia Real Estate Income Fund PB Australia Dynamic Balanced Fund PB Balanced Fund PB Balanced Sequel Fund PB Dynamic Allocation Fund PB Indonesia Balanced Fund PB Mixed Asset Conservative Fund Islamic Funds Public Islamic Mixed Asset Fund Public Islamic Asia Tactical Allocation Fund III. BOND FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Bond Fund Public Enhanced Bond Fund Public Enterprises Bond Fund Public Institutional Bond Fund Public Select Bond Fund Public Strategic Bond Fund PB Bond Fund PB Fixed Income Fund PB Infrastructure Bond Fund Islamic Funds Public Islamic Bond Fund Public Islamic Enhanced Bond Fund Public Islamic Income Fund Public Islamic Infrastructure Bond Fund Public Islamic Select Bond Fund Public Islamic Strategic Bond Fund Public Sukuk Fund PB Aiman Sukuk Fund PB Islamic Bond Fund PB Sukuk Fund IV. MONEY MARKET FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Money Market Fund PB Cash Management Fund PB Cash Plus Fund Islamic Funds Public Islamic Money Market Fund PB Islamic Cash Management Fund PB Islamic Cash Plus Fund Page 10 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW 3 Year Annualised Return Ended 31 March 2017
11. Fund Volatility Class (FVC) 3-Year Fund Volatility Factor (FVF) # (PRS-GRF) (PRS-MDF) (PRS-CVF) 1.1 1.8 3.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. (PRS-IGRF) (PRS-IMDF) (PRS-ICVF) 4.4 2.7 3.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Fund Name V. PRS FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Mutual PRS Growth Fund Public Mutual PRS Moderate Fund Public Mutual PRS Conservative Fund Islamic Funds Public Mutual PRS Islamic Growth Fund Public Mutual PRS Islamic Moderate Fund Public Mutual PRS Islamic Conservative Fund * PB series of funds are highlighted to differentiate them from the Public series of funds # Based on the fund’s portfolio returns as at 28 February 2017 (Source: Lipper) Annualised Return = compounded annual rate of return of the fund over the specific period. The Volatility Factor (VF) means there is a possibility for the fund in generating an upside return or downside return around this VF. The Volatility Class (VC) is assigned by Lipper based on quintile ranks of VF for qualified funds. VF is subject to monthly revision and VC is revised every six months. The volatility banding for the “Very Low”, “Low”, “Moderate”, “High” and “Very High” VCs as at 31 December 2016 are 0.000 ≤ VF ≤ 1.785, 1.785 < VF ≤ 5.965, 5.965 < VF ≤ 8.015, 8.015 < VF ≤ 10.605 and VF more than 10.605 respectively. For this period to 30 June 2017 the VCs for the funds are based on the VFs of the respective funds as at 31 December 2016. The fund’s portfolio may have changed since this date and there is no guarantee that the fund will continue to have the same VF or VC in the future. Presently, only funds launched in the market for at least 36 months will display the VF and its VC. Page 11 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW 3 Year Annualised Return Ended 31 March 2017
12. Glossary Definition Price Earnings Ratio The Price Earnings Ratio (PER) is the ratio of a company's current share price compared to its earnings per share. The PER of the market is derived from the aggregate market capitalisation divided by the total net profits of the listed companies in the relevant market. Dividend yield is the ratio of a company’s dividend per share to its stock price. The dividend yield of the market is computed as the total gross dividends of the market divided by the aggregate market capitalisation. A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period. The inflation rate measures the change in the general level of prices for goods and services. Industrial Production Index (IPI) is an economic indicator which shows the production of output from industrial activities such as mining, manufacturing and utilities. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a survey-based index that indicates the economic health of the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates that manufacturing activities are expanding while a reading below 50 indicates that manufacturing activities are contracting. The consumer confidence index measures the level of consumers’ sentiment regarding the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. An improving trend in the consumer confidence index suggests that consumer spending may be rising. A fiscal deficit arises when a government's total expenditures exceed the revenue that it collects. The Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) is an overnight interest rate set by Bank Negara Malaysia. It is the interest rate that a borrower bank has to pay to a lending bank for the funds borrowed. Increasing the OPR will result in higher interest rates for the economy. There are two main yield calculations. (1) Current yield is calculated by dividing a bond’s coupon by its market price or valuation. A bond’s yield moves inversely to its price. (2) Yield-to-maturity is the return attributable to investors if the bond is held to maturity. A government policy that aims to reduce the budget deficit over time. This is implemented through measures to increase taxes and/or reduce government spending. In general, the lower the budget deficit, the lower the potential supply of government bonds to be issued to finance the government’s budget deficit. Dividend yield GDP Inflation IPI PMI Consumer Confidence Index Fiscal deficit OPR Bond yields Fiscal consolidation Page 12 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
13. THE CONTENTS OF THIS REPORT ARE STRICTLY FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY AND NO PART OF THIS REPORT IS TO BE CONSTRUED AS AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO INVEST IN PUBLIC MUTUAL ’S FUNDS. This Weekly Wrap report summarises the movement of the equity and bond markets as well as the funds’ performance for the period under review and is intended for circulation to the unitholders of Public Mutual. The Market Brief is prepared based on material compiled from data considered to be reliable at the time of writing, but Public Mutual does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. The Fund Performance Review summarises the fund’s weekly performance compared against its benchmark. The fund’s 3-year return together with its volatility class and factor (as at the end of the previous month) are shown to give readers a better perspective of the fund’s longer term performance and its risk. Readers should note that past performance of a fund is not an indication of its future performance. No part of this report may be shared, reproduced, distributed, transmitted, displayed or published in any manner without the written consent of Public Mutual. Public Mutual does not accept any liability, be it directly, indirectly or consequential losses or damages that may arise from any reliance based on this report. Page 13 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.