Indonesia: Retail Sales Survey - June 2017

Transcription

1. RETAIL SALES SURVEY June 2017  The Bank Indonesia Retail Sales survey confirmed a surge in June retail sales, consistent with the seasonal spike in demand during Ramadhan and Eid-ul-Fitr. The Real Sales Index (RSI) was observed to climb 6.3% (yoy) in the reporting period, up from 4.3% (yoy) the month earlier, on the back of food and non-food sales. Regionally, retailers in Banjarmasin reported the strongest annual RSI growth.  Respondents expected slower retail sales growth in July 2017 as public consumption returned to normal after Ramadhan and Eid-ul-Fitr. Retailers predicted the July Real Sales Index (RSI) to contract by 3.0% (yoy) on the previous period, especially affecting non-foods.  The survey also revealed that retailers were anticipating milder inflationary pressures in the next three months (September 2017), with the corresponding 3month Price Expectations Index (PEI) falling from 138.3 to 133.3. Real Sales in June 2017 Respondents confirmed an upswing in June retail sales. Respondents confirmed an upswing in June retail sales, reflected by a Real Sales Index (RSI) of 232.4 and growth accelerating from 4.3% (yoy) the month earlier to 6.3% (yoy) (Graphs 1 and 2). Despite posting stronger growth, retail sales were well below the 16.3% (yoy) recorded in the same period one year ago. Graph 1. Real Retail Sales Index Methodology The Retail Sales Survey has been conducted monthly to acquire early information concerning GDP trends from a private consumption perspective. The Retail Sales Survey was first conducted in September 1999 and in January 2015 the survey involved 700 retailers as respondents using purposive sampling in ten cities, namely Jakarta, Semarang, Bandung, Surabaya, Medan, Purwokerto, Makassar, Manado, Banjarmasin and Denpasar. The index is calculated using commodity and city weights, where commodity weights based on the Input-Output (I-O) table, while city weights based on the share of household consumption in Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) to household consumption in Gross Domestic Product GDP. Currently, panel respondents are grouped according to seven KBLI (Indonesian Standard Industrial Classification) established in 2009. The real index presented with 2010=100 as the base year (previously 2000=100). Meanwhile, general price projections calculated by using the balanced score method (net balance + 100) using city weights according to the Cost of Living Survey (SBH). 1
2. Graph 2 . Real Sales Growth The increase of retail sales growth affected foods and non-foods alike, increasing respectively from 9.7% (yoy) and -3.3% (yoy) to 10.5% (yoy) and 0.2% (yoy) (Graph 3). Food sales were edged up by sales of beverages and ready-toconsume foods (Graph 4), while non-food sales expanded on other goods, primarily in the form of clothing. The latest monthly data pointed to real sales growth of 8.5% (mtm) for June 2017, up from 3.8% (yoy) in May 2017. Retailers confirmed stronger monthly sales for most commodity groups, especially other goods in the form of clothing. In the clothing subgroup, sales of eyewear, jewellery and watches experienced the largest uptick due to a seasonal spike in public demand during the holy fasting month and Eid-ul-Fitr. Graph 3. Real Sales Annual Growth of Food & Non Food Commodity Groups Graph 4. Real Sales Annual Growth of Food, Beverages, and Tobacco Commodity Groups 2
3. Graph 5 . Real Sales Annual Growth of Motor Graph 6. Real Sales Annual Growth of Information & Vehicles Part & Accessories and Automotive Fuels Communication Equipment and Other Household Commodity Groups Equipment Commodity Groups Graph 7. Real Sales Annual Growth of Cultural & Recreation Goods and Other Goods Commodity Groups Graph 8. Real Sales Annual Growth of Other Goods and Clothing Commodity Groups Real Sales Expectations for July 2017 Respondents expected slower retail sales growth in July 2017 as public Respondents predicted slower retail sales growth in July 2017. consumption returned to normal after Ramadhan and Eid-ul-Fitr. Retailers predicted a Real Sales Index (RSI) of 210.5 in July 2017, contracting 3.0% (yoy) on the previous period (Graphs 1 and 2). The slump was expected to affect foods and non-foods, contracting respectively by 0.5% (yoy) and 6.7% (yoy). Concerning foods, respondents anticipated the slowdown to affect all products, particularly sales of beverages and ready-to-consume foods (Graph 4), while most non-foods, especially other goods in the form of clothing, were assumed as a drag on non-food sales. On a monthly basis, respondents predicted real sales contracted to -9.4% (mtm) on the back of most commodity groups, especially other goods in the form of clothing. The most significant declines in the clothing subgroup especially affected eyewear, jewellery and watches as well as apparel sales. 3
4. Real Sales Expectations for the Second Quarter of 2017 Retailers confirmed stronger sales compared to the previous quarter but down on the same period one year ago . On a quarterly basis, retailers confirmed stronger annual sales compared to the previous quarter but down on the same period one year ago. The phenomenon reflected by annual RSI growth of 4.9% (yoy) in the second quarter of 2017 (April – June), slightly up from 4.8% (yoy) in the previous quarter (January – March) but decelerating from 13.7% (yoy) in the same period a year ago (Graph 9). Graph 9. Real Sales and Household Consumption Annual Growth Regional Real Sales Retailers in Banjarmasin reported the strongest annual RSI growth. Regionally, respondents in several of the surveyed cities reported an upturn in annual June retail sales, particularly in Banjarmasin where growth accelerated from 38.3% (yoy) in May 2017 to 46.9% (yoy) on sales of food, beverages and tobacco as well as other goods in the form of clothing. In July 2017, however, respondents in most cities anticipated a sales decline, especially in Jakarta and Semarang (including Purwokerto), where growth decreased from 11.0% (yoy) and 32.4% (yoy) last period to -18.5% (yoy) and 3.3% (yoy) (Graph 10). 4
5. Graph 10 . Performance of Real Sales Growth (YoY) in Banjarmasin, Manado, Jakarta, and Semarang (include Purwokerto) Price Expectations for the Upcoming Three and Six Months Respondents predicted milder inflationary pressures in September 2017. Respondents predicted milder inflationary pressures in September 2017, reflected by a drop in the 3-month Price Expectations Index (PEI) from 138.3 to 133.3 (Graph 11). Notwithstanding, inflationary pressures were expected to accumulate again in December 2017, with the 6-month PEI observed to rise from 135.8 to 149.3 (Graph 12). Graph 11. Price Expectations Index for the Upcoming Three Months Grafik 12. Price Expectations Index for the Upcoming Six Months 5
6. Sales Expectations for the Upcoming Three and Six Months Respondents were expecting sales to slow in September 2017 . Respondents were expecting sales to slow in September 2017, indicated by a 3-month Sales Expectations Index (SEI) of 123.1, down from 137.7 the month earlier. Conversely, retail sales were predicted to rebound in December 2017, with the 6month SEI climbing 11.5 points from 129.7 to 141.3 (Graph 13). Graph 13. Sales Expectations Index for the Upcoming Three and Six Months 6
7. Appendix Table 1 . Real Retail Sales Index by Categories Table 2. Growth (y-o-y) of Real Retail Sales Index Table 3. Growth (m-t-m) of Real Retail Sales Index 7
8. Table 4 . Real Sales Index by City Table 5. Annual Growth (y-o-y) of Real Sales by City Table 6. Monthly Growth (m-t-m) of Real Sales by City 8
9. Table 7 . Expectations for Prices and Sales 9