Indonesia: Macroeconomic Indicators Forecasting Survey - 3Q 2017

Transcription

1. MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS FORECASTING SURVEY ”Economic Momentum Predicted to Accelerate in 2017 ” Quarter III – 2017 • Respondents of the Bank Indonesia Macroeconomic Indicators Forecasting Survey were upbeat on domestic economic growth in 2017, predicting domestic economic growth to accelerate from the 5.02% (yoy) realised in 2016 to 5.09% (yoy) in 2017. • Respondents expected inflationary pressures to intensify but remain under control in 2017, predicting a rate of 3.86% (yoy) in 2017, up from 3.02% (yoy) in 2016. Respondents cited the reduction and removal of government subsidies, coupled with rising international commodity prices, as the main inflation drivers in 2017. • Respondents were optimistic the rupiah would remain stable against the USD in 2017, tracking an appreciatory trend to Rp13,359 per USD. The optimism stems from controlled inflation, a healthy balance of payments and positive world economic growth. Expectations of Macroeconomic Conditions in Quarter III and IV of 2017 Respondents predicted stronger economic growth. Respondents of the Macroeconomic Indicator Graph 1. GDP Expectation Forecasting Survey expected domestic economic growth to accelerate, predicting 5.09% (yoy) in the third quarter of 2017, up from 5.01% (yoy) in the previous period. Furthermore, respondents anticipated the upward trend to persist into the middle of next year (Graph 1). Methodology : Macroeconomic Indicator Forecasting Survey (previously Market Perception Survey) is a quartely survey started from Quarter IV-2001 with economists, economic researchers, capital/money market analyts, and academia societies as reposdents. Respondents are selected based on purposive sampling method. Data are collected online using the web-based surveys application or by mail, facsimile and e-mail. The methodology used is polling method (the percentage of respondents providing the majority of response) and mean point estimates (mpe). 1
2. Macroeconomic Indicators Forecasting Survey Table 1 . Expectation for Quarterly Economic Indicators Expectations on Macroeconomic Conditions in 2017 Respondents expected economic growth in 2017 to outpace that achieved in 2016. Respondents predicted domestic economic growth to accelerate from the 5.02% (yoy) realised in 2016 to 5.09% (yoy) in 2017 (Table 2), still within the range projected by Bank Indonesia at 5.0-5.4% (yoy) 1 and slightly below the macroeconomic assumption of 5.2% (yoy) 2 used for the state budget in 2017. The main drivers of growth in 2017 include a healthy trade balance, growing investment and a more favourable world economic outlook, especially in advanced countries. Respondents expected inflationary pressures to remain under control in 2017. Respondents expected inflationary pressures to intensify but remain under control in 2017, predicting a rate of 3.86% (yoy) in 2017, up from 3.02% (yoy) in 2016, which is still within Bank Indonesia’s target corridor of 4.0±1% 3 and slightly below the macroeconomic assumption of 4.3% (yoy) 4 used for the state budget in 2017. Respondents cited the reduction and removal of government subsidies, coupled with rising international commodity prices, as the main inflation drivers in 2017. Respondents predicted exchange rates at Rp13,359 per USD in 2017. Respondents were optimistic the rupiah would remain stable against the USD, tracking an appreciatory trend to Rp13,359 per USD, with volatility well mitigated. Respondents were upbeat on controlled inflation, a healthy balance of payments and positive world economic growth. Table 2. Expectation for Economic Indicators in 2017 and 2018 1 Monetary Policy Review, September 2017. Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia. 3 Monetary Policy Review, September 2017. 4 Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia. 2 2
3. Macroeconomic Indicators Forecasting Survey Outlook for Macroeconomic Conditions in 2018 Respondents national gaining Respondents predicted the national economy to continue gaining momentum in 2018 . predicted the Graph 2. GDP Expectation for 2017 and 2018 economy to continue momentum in 2018, accelerating to 5.31% (yoy), consistent with Bank Indonesia’s economic growth projection for 2018 at 5.1-5.5% (yoy). Analysts expected a stronger global economy as well as greater private and public consumption to stimulate domestic growth in 2018. Respondents predicted lower and more controlled inflation in 2018 at 3.18% (yoy). Sufficient availability Respondents predicted more controlled inflation in 2018. of goods, supported by smooth distribution channels and larger government subsidies, will help dampen inflationary pressures in 2018. Respondents predicted exchange rates to close at Rp13,351 per USD at yearend 2018. On 2018, respondents were upbeat on the rupiah exchange rates. Survey result predicted exchange Graph 3. Inflation Expectation for 2017 and 2018 ( % Respondent ) 50 Expectation of 2017 Expectation of 2018 37.5 40 31.6 30 29.2 21.1 26.3 20 12.5 12.5 8.3 10 15.8 5.3 0 <= 3,5% 3,51 - 3,75 % 3,76 - 4,0% 4,01 - 4,25 % 4,26 - 4,50% ( %, yoy) rates to close at Rp13,351 per USD at yearend 2018, with volatility influenced by stronger economic growth and controlled inflation. Graph 4. Exchange Rate Expectation for 2017 and 2018 3
4. ECONOMIC INDICATORS EXPECTATION BASED ON MIFS QUARTER III-2017 Graph 1 . Expectation of Economic Growth in Quarter IV-2017 Most respondents predicted fourth quarter growth in the 5.0-5.24% (yoy) range . Graph 2. Expectation of GDP Growth in 2017 All respondents were optimistic that domestic economic growth would top 5.0% (yoy) in 2017. Graph 3. Expectation of Inflation in 2017 Graph 4. Expectation of Exchange Rate in 2017 Inflation in 2017 was predicted in the 3.76-4.00% (yoy) range . All respondents predicted the value of the rupiah below Rp13,500 per USD ). 4
5. ECONOMIC INDICATORS EXPECTATION BASED ON MIFS QUARTER III-2017 Graph 5 . Expectation of GDP Growth in 2018 GDP growth in 2018 was predicted above 5.25% (yoy). Graph 6. Expectation of Inflation in 2018 Inflation in 2018 was predicted below 3.50% (yoy). Graph 7. Expectation on Exchange Rates in 2018 Most respondents predicted a rupiah exchange rate against the USD of below Rp13,500 in 2018. 5