Indonesia: Commercial Property Survey - 2Q 2017

Transcription

1. COMMERCIAL PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT Commercial Property Price Index Growth Decelerated in line with Dwindling Supply and Demand Quarter II - 2017 • • • The Bank Indonesia Commercial Property Development Survey revealed that growth of the Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) slowed from 3.02% (qtq) to 0.03% (qtq) in the second quarter of 2017. Developers confirmed that the growth of quarterly prices primarily affected the warehouse complex segment (0.22%, qtq) followed by apartments (0.20%, qtq). Annually, however, commercial property prices were observed to accelerate from 2.69% (yoy) to 2.79% (yoy) in the same period. Respondents reported slower growth of the Commercial Property Supply Index (CPSI) in the second quarter of 2017, moderating from 0.59% (qtq) last period to 0.10% (qtq). Positive supply growth was reported by respondents in the hotel segment (0.56%, qtq), retail (0.53%, qtq) and apartments (0.52%, qtq). Furthermore, supply growth also moderated annually, slipping from 1.96% (yoy) to 1.79% (yoy). Commercial Property Demand Index (CPSI) was observed to decelerate from 0.40% (qtq) last quarter to 0.23% (qtq) in the second quarter 2017. Most demand for commercial property stemmed from the convention hall segment (6.87%, qtq) and hotels (4.19%, qtq). Annually, growth of demand for commercial property also tracked a slower upward trend in the reporting period, decelerating from 1.54% (yoy) to 1.49% (yoy). COMMERCIAL PROPERTY A. Commercial Property Prices Slower quarterly growth of the Commercial Property Price Index was observed, contrasting the annual gains. The Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) was recorded at a level of 172.33 in the second quarter of 2017, with growth slowing from 3.02% (qtq) last period to just 0.03% (qtq). Developers confirmed that rising prices primarily affected the warehouse complex segment (0.22%, qtq) in Jabodebek in line with growing demand for warehouses in the Jakarta area from the E-Commerce and IT sector, followed by apartments (0.20%, qtq), particularly leased apartments. Meanwhile, respondents acknowledged that the deepest price declines were experienced by the hotel segment (-6.46%, qtq) due to tight competition. Congruently, the convention hall segment was also observed to contract (-6.26%, qtq) (Graph 1). Methodology • Commercial Property Development has been analysed on a quarterly basis since the first quarter of 1996, covering five segments, namely offices, shopping centres (retail), apartments, hotels and industrial estates. Data is collated through outsourcing using face-to-face and telephone interviews covering data on supply, occupancy and sales, as well as selling prices and commercial property rental rates. Data is processed using the weighted average of area and number of units for each commercial property segment. Data is collected to reveal the latest direction of inflationary pressures on commercial property as an indicator of asset price inflation. Makassar was included in the survey since the second quarter of 2014 along with Medan, Semarang and Surabaya in the first quarter of 2015, Balikpapan and Denpasar in the first quarter of 2017. • Since the third quarter of 2015, commercial property data has been presented in terms of the Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI), consistent with improvements in terms of sampling methodology and data management of each property segment. The index is calculated using 2012 as the base year and capitalisation value as the weighted average. The cities of Jabodebek, Banten, Bandung, Makassar, Medan, Semarang, Surabaya, Balikpapan, and Denpasar are used to calculate the Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI). • Sales and occupancy rates are calculated based on the ratio of the number of sold/occupied units and the cumulative supply (new supply and existing inventory). 1
2. Commercial Property Development Graph 1 . Commercial Property Price Index Growth (qtq) Annually, however, the survey revealed that commercial property prices enjoyed 2.79% (yoy) growth in the second quarter, accelerating from 2.69% (yoy) last period (Graph 2). Convention halls were the main driver of growth (0.89%, yoy) due to a surge in exhibition activities, followed by offices (0.60%, yoy). In contrast, respondents confirmed that the hotel segment experienced a -13.57% (yoy) price contraction because of tight competition after several new hotels, especially 5-star hotels in Jakarta, commenced operations. Graph 2. Commercial Property Price Index Growth (yoy) 2
3. Commercial Property Development B . Commercial Property Supply Respondents reported slower annual and quarterly growth of the Commercial Property Supply Index (CPSI) in the second quarter of 2017. Respondents reported slower growth of the Commercial Property Supply Index (CPSI) in the second quarter of 2017, moderating from 0.59% (qtq) last period to 0.10% (qtq). Positive supply growth was mainly reported by respondents in the hotel segment (0.56%, qtq), particularly in Semarang (3.44%, qtq), after additional 3-star sharia-compliant hotels began operating in the region (Graph 3). In addition to hotels, the retail segment also achieved positive supply growth (0.53%, qtq) in the reporting period, especially leased retail space in Bandung, namely Pascal 23, followed by apartments (0.52%, qtq), specifically strata title apartments targeting the middle-low market segment in Bandung. Graph 3. Commercial Property Supply Index Growth (qtq) Annually, the Commercial Property Supply Index (CPSI) was also observed to slow on the previous period, decelerating from 1.96% (yoy) to 1.79% (yoy). Bucking the downward trend, however, the supply of apartments accelerated 9.97% (yoy), particularly strata title apartments in Balikpapan and Makassar (25.70%, yoy). In addition to apartments, respondents confirmed that the additional supply of commercial property in the second quarter of 2017 also originated from office space (6.95%, yoy), primarily strata title in Jakarta, namely the Kensington building located in Kelapa Gading (Graph 4). Graph 4. Commercial Property Supply Index Growth (yoy) 3
4. Commercial Property Development C . Commercial Property Demand Respondents reported slower annual and quarterly growth of the Commercial Property Demand Index (CPSI) in the second quarter of 2017. Respondents reported slower growth of the Commercial Property Demand Index (CPSI) in the second quarter of 2017, reflected by a CPSI level of 129.52, with growth decelerating from 0.40% (qtq) in the previous quarter to 0.23% (qtq) (Graph 5). Most demand for commercial property stemmed from the convention hall segment (6.87%, qtq), particularly standalone conventions and office facilities. By region, developers in Bandung reported strong demand growth (2.18%, qtq), especially for leased retail space, along with those in Denpasar (6.32%, qtq), where the holiday high season and Eid-ul-Fitr created a spike in demand for leased apartments. Graph 5. Commercial Property Demand Index Growth (qtq) Annual growth of demand for commercial property also tracked a slower upward trend in the reporting period, moderating from 1.54% (yoy) to 1.49% (yoy) (Graph 6). Respondents confirmed stronger demand for apartments (10.18%, yoy), particularly strata title apartments, followed by the hotel segment (10.13%, yoy), especially in Bandung, consistent with the proliferation of MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conferences and Exhibitions) as well as tourism activities in the reporting period Graph 6. Commercial Property Demand Index Growth (yoy) 4
5. Commercial Property Development PROPERTY LOANS The banking industry disclosed that consumer loan growth accelerated from 9 .11% (yoy) to 11.43% (yoy) in the second quarter of 2017, indicating growth of demand for commercial property (Graph 7). Housing loans for apartments, particularly the middle market segment (7.83%, yoy), were the main driver of consumer loan growth, while loans for small apartments were observed to contract by -8.31% (yoy). Graph 7. Growth (yoy) of Consumptions, Flats/Apartments, and Shophouses/Officehouses Credit*) In general, the banking industry reduced interest rates on consumer loans and housing loans in the second quarter of 2017 (Graph 8). The interest rates on housing loans for small apartments (≤ 21 m2) averaged 12.54% per annum, 11.28% per annum for medium apartments (22-70 m2), and 10.34% per annum for large apartments (>70 m2), all down on the previous period. Graph 8. Trend of Consumptions, Flats/Apartments, and Shophouses/Officehouses Credit Interest Rate*) 5
6. Table 1 . Commercial Property Price Index (Total) and Commercial Property Price Index in Jabodebek, Banten, Bandung, Makassar, and Medan Area 6
7. Table 2 . Commercial Property Price Index in Semarang, Surabaya, Balikpapan, and Denpasar Area 7
8. Table 3 . Growth of Commercial Property Price Index (Total) & Growth of Commercial Property Price Index in Jabodebek, Banten, Bandung, Makassar, and Medan Area (%, qtq) 8
9. Table 4 . Growth of Commercial Property Price Index in Semarang, Surabaya, Balikpapan, and Denpasar Area (%, qtq) 9
10. Table 5 . Growth of Commercial Property Price Index (Total) & Growth of Commercial Property Price Index in Jabodebek, Banten, Bandung, Makassar, and Medan Area (%, yoy) 10
11. Table 6 . Growth of Commercial Property Price Index in Semarang, Surabaya, Balikpapan, and Denpasar Area (%, yoy) 11
12. Table 7 . Commercial Property Supply Index (Total) and Commercial Property Supply Index in Jabodebek, Banten, Bandung, Makassar, and Medan Area 12
13. Table 8 . Commercial Property Supply Index in Semarang, Surabaya, Balikpapan, and Denpasar Area 13
14. Table 9 . Growth of Commercial Property Supply Index (Total) & Growth of Commercial Property Supply Index in Jabodebek, Banten, Bandung, Makassar, and Medan Area (%, qtq) 14
15. Table 10 . Growth of Commercial Property Supply Index in Semarang, Surabaya, Balikpapan, and Denpasar Area (%, qtq) 15
16. Table 11 . Growth of Commercial Property Supply Index (Total) & Growth of Commercial Property Supply Index in Jabodebek, Banten, Bandung, Makassar, and Medan Area (%, yoy) 16
17. Table 12 . Growth of Commercial Property Supply Index in Semarang, Surabaya, Balikpapan, and Denpasar Area (%, yoy) 17
18. Table 13 . Commercial Property Demand Index (Total) and Commercial Property Demand Index in Jabodebek, Banten, Bandung, Makassar, and Medan Area 18
19. Table 14 . Commercial Property Demand Index in Semarang, Surabaya, Balikpapan, and Denpasar Area 19
20. Table 15 . Growth of Commercial Property Demand Index (Total) & Growth of Commercial Property Demand Index in Jabodebek, Banten, Bandung, Makassar, and Medan Area (%, qtq) 20