GCC Daily Market Update - 9 May

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 9 , 2018 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,671.9 (0.7) 24,360.2 2.9 6,815.5 (6.4) 7,565.8 (1.4) 12,912.2 (35.9) 5,521.9 (9.5) 99,363.8 (1,502.4) 22,508.7 41.5 30,402.8 408.6 3,161.5 24.9 35,216.3 8.2 (0.0) 0.0 (0.1) (0.0) (0.3) (0.2) (1.5) 0.2 1.4 0.8 0.0 0.9 0.8 3.2 0.8 2.4 0.0 (4.7) 0.2 (1.3) 2.6 0.2 (0.1) (1.5) 6.6 (1.6) (0.0) 3.9 (13.8) (1.5) 2.1 (4.4) 3.3 8,870.2 8,012.6 4,479.5 2,948.8 4,805.2 4,691.4 1,273.2 1,645.4 3,661.1 (113.6) (104.8) (60.6) (14.0) 6.8 (20.4) (5.4) (13.8) 4.7 (1.3) (1.3) (1.3) (0.5) 0.1 (0.4) (0.4) (0.8) 0.1 (2.7) (2.4) (4.1) (3.8) 0.1 (0.8) 1.2 (2.4) 1.0 4.1 10.9 1.8 (12.5) NA (8.0) (4.4) 3.3 0.6 74.9 69.1 2.7 1,313.7 304.1 (1.3) (1.7) (0.0) (0.4) (1.9) (1.7) (2.4) (0.3) (0.0) (0.6) 2.1 3.1 (0.9) (0.4) (0.4) 14.7 17.0 (7.2) 0.3 (7.9) Global The US equity markets ended mostly lower yesterday, after the US President said that it would quit the Iran nuclear deal and might impose new sanctions on the nation. The S&P 500 was marginally lower, as losses in Consumer Discretionary stocks were offset by gains in Energy shares. Gains in Defense-related shares support the Industrial sector. The Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 0.1%, as investors reacted to the latest batch of encouraging corporate earnings data and mergers between the regional companies. Airline stocks inched higher, amid losses in oil prices. The UK’s benchmark fell marginally, amid losses in Energy shares. The Nikkei index edged 0.2% higher, driven by gains in Construction Machinery companies, as they tracked gains in their US peer Caterpillar. GCC Most GCC equity indices ended lower yesterday, amid uncertainties surrounding the Iran’s nuclear deal. The Saudi Arabian benchmark inched 1.3% lower. Zain Saudi plunged 10.0%, after reporting a loss in the Q1-18 results, as the company lost almost 2mn subscribers over the period. Savola Group dropped 0.4%, amid ongoing uncertainties regarding the Iranian deal, as the company has sizeable exposure in the country. The Dubai index inched 0.5% lower. Dubai Financial Market retreated 4.4%, after the company’s Q1-18 earnings dropped significantly. Qatar The QE index inched 1.3% lower, weighed by decline in Qatar National Bank and Industries Qatar which inched 2.5% and 2.0% lower respectively. Increased net selling pressure from foreign retail investors weighed on the overall performance of the benchmark. Trade turnover and volumes declined during yesterday’s session, with Industrials and Telecom sectors together accounting for more than 69.0% of the total volume. Out of the 45 listed stocks, 40 exchanged hands of which 29 declined, 9 advanced and 2 remained unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.6 1.3 4.5 51.9 DSM 20 13.2 1.4 5.0 40.7 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 18.0 1.8 3.3 1,169.7 UAE (ADX) 11.7 1.3 5.4 44.5 UAE (DFM) 10.0 1.1 5.9 51.1 Kuwait (KSE) 14.1 1.2 3.9 35.7 Oman (MSM) 10.9 1.0 5.1 5.5 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 8.3 0.8 6.4 1.9 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Al Meera Con. Goods Widam Food Co Gulf Warehousing Co Qatar General Ins. Doha Bank Top Losers Qatar & Oman Invest. Qatari Investors Group Ezdan Holding Group Qatar National Bank Ooredoo Close Price 140.0 61.8 41.1 48.2 26.9 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.3 (3.4) (1.1) (6.6) (1.6) (5.6) (8.5) (0.3) (18.6) 26.8 (11.5) 30.3 12.9 47.5 0.3 201.8 14.2 10.0 10.9 11.8 8.6 6.7 31.9 9.2 147.1 71.1 (0.3) (0.9) (0.3) (3.8) (1.8) (4.3) (2.7) (2.6) (2.5) (2.5) (15.8) (12.8) (23.8) 16.7 (21.6) (27.9) (43.9) (39.7) 7.3 (31.2) 10.8 40.3 250.4 114.9 103.6 40.5 15.7 28.1 10.8 12.2 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 9,200 20.0 8,900 8,870.2 8,600 10.0 8,300 8,000 11/Feb 0.0 25/Feb 11/Mar 25/Mar Index Volume (mn) 8/Apr 22/Apr 6/May Index Value Closing Level 3,029.7 5,829.2 3,009.3 2,975.6 1,692.3 1,015.7 1,794.7 1D Change (%) (1.5) (0.1) (1.4) (0.4) (1.9) (2.0) (0.3) Buy (%) 38.5 19.3 57.8 9.2 33.0 42.2 Sell (%) 38.0 19.9 57.9 10.4 31.7 42.1 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 9 , 2018 and Umrah sector on the second day of the Makkah Economic Forum. GLOBAL NEWS  The US President is expected to request a package worth USD 15.0bn in spending cuts from Congress which includes USD 7.0bn from the Children’s Health Insurance Program. (Source: Reuters)  US Fed’s Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the central bank’s interest rate hikes may not pose a major risk for the global financial and emerging economies. (Source: Reuters)  Canadian housing starts fell by 4.9% MoM to 214,379 in April-18, due to decrease in groundbreaking on both detached and multiple unit homes. (Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)  UK housing market slowed down unexpectedly in April-18 with price up 2.2% YoY, as compared to 2.7% YoY in March-18, as measured by the Halifax index. (Source: Reuters)  Japan’s trade deficit has increased to JPY 233.3bn in April-18, as compared to JPY 109.7bn in April-17, led by a 12.7% YoY increase in imports to JPY 4.6tn and a 10.0% YoY increase in exports to JPY 4.4tn. (Source: Saudi Gazette)  Saudi Arabia based electronic payment solutions and financial technology company Saudi Geidea announced that Abu Dhabi based asset management firm Gulf Capital has acquired a stake for USD 266.6mn in the company. (Source: Arabian Business)  Oman construction sector is witnessing healthy activities with 2,410 active projects valued at USD 190.0bn in April-18, consisting of urban construction projects (USD 61.0bn) oil and gas sector projects (USD 39.0bn) and transportation projects (USD 32.0bn), according to BNC Network. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Oman based property developer Al Raid Group is in the process of building The Al Araimi Walk, the largest shopping, entertainment and touristic destination in Oman with an investment of OMR 112.0mn (USD 290.0mn). (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain based Al Baraka Banking Group reported a 9.6% YoY increase in its net profit income for Q1-18 to USD 57.0mn, led by prudent policies and increased spending efficiencies. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Kuwait based Jassim Transport & Stevedoring Co is planning to come up with an IPO listing on Boursa Kuwait. It reported a 25.0% YoY increase in net profits in FY-17 to KWD 7.8mn, according to its CEO. (Source: Japan Customs)    Australian government in its annual budget has included a package of personal income tax cuts for low and middle-income earners aimed at increasing spending in the economy. It is also planning to spend AUD 4.5bn towards road development. (Source: Reuters) IMF’s Asia Pacific director has stated that Asia has more buffers than in the past to raise rates, however, it remains vulnerable to a sudden tightening in global financial conditions despite a strong growth outlook. (Source: Reuters) As per the World Bank’s recent forecast, Turkey’s economy is expected to grow 4.7% in FY-18 and 4.4% in FY-19. The country’s inflation is expected to reach 10.4% in 2018 and slow down to 9.0% in FY-19. (Source: Arabian Business)  (Source: Trade Arabia)  (Source: AA)  Turkey’s transport minister has announced that the country is expected to invest EUR 39.0bn (USD 46.4bn) on railways in the next five years to transform all lines to operate electrically and raise its productivity to the maximum level until 2023. (Source: AA) UAE has retained its position for seventh consecutive year as the top country where Arab youth would like to live, according to the ASDA’A Burson-Marsteller Arab Youth Survey 2018. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai based financial services group Shuaa Capital has entered into a MoU with Saudi Arabia based public real estate company Jabal Omar Development to launch and manage real estate investment vehicles in Saudi Arabia. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai based leading data center, Datamena, has entered into a three year deal with Australia based workspace technology company Servcorp to establish its Middle East regional ICT hub, according to the CEO. (Source: Trade Arabia)     Kuwait based mobile telecom company Zain Group has announced the opening of its Zain Innovation Center in Kuwait aimed to encourage youth entrepreneurship and help build the country’s overall startup ecosystem. (Source: Arabian Business) QATAR NEWS  Qatar’s Minister of Energy and Industry announced that the agreement between 24 OPEC and non-OPEC producers to cut production of 1.8mn bpd in December-16 was a landmark agreement which resulted in healthy and balanced market today. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar and Kuwait have lower breakeven oil prices and possess a cushion of around USD 17.9/bbl and USD 16.9/bbl to balance their 2018 fiscal budgets, according to a study by Kamco research. (Source: GCC NEWS  Kuwait based logistics firm Agility has reported a 29.8% YoY increase in net profit to KWD 18.9mn (USD 62.6mn) for Q1-18 led by strong performance in ocean and air freight besides improving its efficiency. Gulf Times)  Qatar Financial Centre has entered into a MoU with Hasalty, an app aiming to enhance the financial education of the youth to support local startups and the enhance youth education. (Source: Peninsula Qatar)  Doha Bank introduced new Salary Transfer Package for Qataris and Expats to enhance its reputation of delivering innovative financial products and services. (Source: Gulf Times)  Dubai based Karvy Middle East has entered into a strategic partnership with US based private equity real estate management firm, MG Capital to offer MG Capital products to the company’s new and existing clients. (Source: Trade Arabia) Qatar witnessed a 39.0% YoY increase in the number of passengers to more than 65,000 and 22 cruise ships arrival during the cruise season which lasts from Oct-17 to Apr-18, according to Qatar’s Tourism Authority. (Source: Gulf Times)  Dubai based DP World Group subsidiary, P&O Marinas, has signed a MoU with the Monaco based Société Monegasque International Portuaire to work on selected marina projects in the Mediterranean and other locations around the world. (Source: Arabian Business) Qatar Petroleum will be going ahead with its production expansion and foreign asset acquisition strategy despite the regional political and economic blockade, in order to be at par with the other oil exporting countries, according to its CEO. (Source: Reuters)  Abu Dhabi Fund for Development has participated in the inauguration of two of its funded projects in the Tirana, the capital of Albania valued at AED 240.0mn (USD 65.3mn). (Source: Arabian Business) Vodafone Qatar has rolled out 1Gbps fibre network in New Salata and Industrial Area, which would benefit local resident to have access to the company’s ‘triple play’ services. (Source: Gulf Times)  A Senior official of Qatar Chamber announced to open a new office in Doha by the end of this year, which would look after all types of trade disputes and updating Qatari legislation. (Source: Qatar Tribune) Saudi Arabia based Makkah Development Commission has announced eight investment opportunities valued at over USD 1.0bn in the Hajj 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 9 , 2018 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1894 USD/QAR 3.6415 109.1300 EUR/QAR 4.3312 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3577 JPY/QAR 0.0334 USD/CHF 1.0017 GBP/QAR 4.9441 USD/CAD 1.2950 CHF/QAR 3.6353 AUD/USD 0.7455 CAD/QAR 2.8120 NZD/USD 0.6971 AUD/QAR 2.7147 USD/INR 66.5800 INR/QAR 0.0547 USD/TRY 4.3327 TRY/QAR 0.8405 USD/ZAR 12.5700 ZAR/QAR 0.2897 USD/BRL 3.5632 BRL/QAR 1.0220 FX Commentary The USD trimmed some of its gains registered earlier during yesterday’s session against a basket of currencies, after the US President withdrew the nuclear deal with Iran. The dollar index inched 0.4% higher to settle at 93.112. The CAD closed lower against the USD, to nearly seven-week low level, as oil prices fell. The losses for the currency further extended with investors weighed prospects for the NAFTA agreement, as no further developments were noticed. The GBP fell against the USD to a fresh four-month low, amid rising expectations that the Bank of England would leave its interest rates unchanged in its upcoming meeting. The CHF inched higher against the USD, as the safe haven currency was in demand, amid expectations that the cancellation of the Iran deal might trigger geopolitical tensions. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.71 1.76 1.93 2.37 2.78 (0.44) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.19) 2.26 2.32 2.44 2.64 3.03 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.92 2.08 2.40 2.81 2.0% EIBOR 1.60 1.83 2.02 2.39 3.09 BMIBOR 1.58 1.80 2.33 2.75 3.30 NA NA 1.75 2.00 2.44 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 3.31% 2.52% 4.02% 4.27% 4.48% 2.82% 2.94% 2.99% 3.14% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 5.10% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 4.0% US 24.3 (4.0) Turkey 241.8 UK 18.5 (6.3) Brazil 201.0 22.0 Germany 11.3 0.2 Egypt 329.1 (35.4) France 18.3 (0.5) Abu Dhabi 66.7 (6.7) Italy 94.0 (26.3) Bahrain 370.1 84.2 Greece 343.7 (139.2) Dubai 119.6 (22.5) Russia 145.5 3.7 Qatar 92.2 (11.3) Japan 25.1 (9.0) Saudi Arabia 90.0 (13.2) 2.78% 3.02% 2.98% 2.95% 2.0% 1.61% 2.33% 2.16% 2.01% 3.04% 2.58% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 27.7 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 09:45 France Industrial Production MoM Period Survey Prior Mar 0.40% 1.20% 09:45 France Industrial Production YoY 14:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Mar 2.80% 4.00% May-04th - (2.50%) 15:30 US PPI Final Demand MoM Apr 0.20% 0.30% 02:50 Japan BoP Current Account Balance Mar ¥2,899.0b ¥2,076.0b Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) Saudi Electricity Co YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) NA NA NA (1,214.0) NA NA Agility 371.8 16.0 (3.7) 18.9 29.8 (2.0) Saudi Ground Services Co 621.8 (3.4) 6.2 106.7 (31.2) 66.5 Al Tayyar Travel Group 482.0 3.3 (16.6) 86.0 (37.1) 425.6 Yanbu Cement Co NA NA NA 40.0 (67.8) (58.4) National Medical Care Co NA NA NA 25.6 64.7 10.1 Bahrain Islamic Bank NA NA NA 2.2 269.1 (54.2) Takween Advanced Industries NA NA NA (836.0) NA NA Independent Petroleum Group NA NA NA 2.2 26.2 89.6 Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 9 , 2018 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.2 2.8 0.0 11.2 3.9 6.8 5.8 5.3 0.0 4.1 7.4 4.1 7.5 4.6 9.0 6.2 6.1 4.4 5.8 0.0 0.0 6.9 8.4 6.1 6.1 0.0 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.0 2.4 7.8 8.3 4.4 0.0 6.0 3.8 4.6 7.0 4.1 7.4 5.4 0.0 8.8 6.3 4.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 3.7 4.1 6.7 6.2 6.1 4.7 P/B Ratio (x) 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.0 1.1 0.8 2.2 0.5 0.8 1.8 1.6 2.2 0.8 1.8 0.8 2.0 2.2 1.1 2.1 1.3 0.4 3.8 0.7 1.6 0.8 0.9 0.5 2.1 1.5 2.4 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.7 0.6 0.6 1.4 0.7 2.3 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.3 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.7 1.4 P/E Ratio (x) 9.8 15.8 32.7 7.4 (H) (‫)م‬ 7.1 12.6 (H) (‫)م‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.0 9.6 10.2 40.6 10.6 4.0 21.9 14.2 18.7 12.7 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.0 5.1 11.2 12.4 41.0 10.8 18.4 16.7 13.0 15.7 9.4 10.7 16.2 43.7 14.7 31.8 13.2 12.0 21.7 8.0 28.7 46.0 9.7 14.3 12.2 N/A (‫)غ‬ 16.3 10.9 9.5 13.2 10.8 12.5 EPS (QR) 3.1 2.3 0.4 3.6 0.2 1.6 2.7 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.5 5.6 14.5 0.2 5.9 11.1 2.9 9.8 1.2 11.0 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 6.2 13.8 5.8 0.8 0.4 0.5 6.0 1.0 15.1 2.0 4.1 5.1 2.6 0.3 0.9 1.1 3.7 4.2 1.6 4.2 0.3 0.2 1.5 0.9 5.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.6 3.8 1.6 4.3 2.2 3.0 BV/Share (QR) 23.9 37.7 8.2 27.2 24.0 14.5 15.6 19.5 7.5 58.1 34.5 66.7 8.4 35.3 58.3 32.3 62.9 21.5 65.8 4.5 12.5 16.1 99.1 41.1 12.9 19.8 10.4 53.7 11.2 81.6 21.6 31.0 44.7 24.2 19.6 20.3 24.0 69.2 21.4 31.2 46.6 11.4 12.7 30.0 17.2 70.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 19.5 26.6 15.1 118.1 32.2 26.2 Stock Price (QR) 30.0 35.7 11.3 26.9 26.0 11.0 34.5 9.4 5.8 104.9 53.8 147.1 6.7 44.6 64.1 140.0 22.6 139.0 5.7 5.5 61.8 70.5 9.9 17.5 5.6 110.9 16.4 196.0 31.9 38.7 54.5 11.4 12.5 34.5 48.2 50.1 33.8 9.2 6.7 14.3 71.1 9.1 41.1 15.0 56.8 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4