National Bank of Kazakhstan: On the publication of preliminary estimate of the Balance of Payments of the Republic of Kazakhstan for the 1 quarter of 2018

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1. PRESS - RELEASE № 10 On the publication of preliminary estimate of the Balance of Payments of the Republic of Kazakhstan for the 1 quarter of 2018 May 10, 2018 Almaty According to the preliminary estimation in the 1 quarter of 2018 the current account totaled with a small deficit in amount of US$ 95 million compared with US$ 1.4 billion deficit in the 1 quarter of 2017. Increase in the trade surplus against the backdrop of a recovery in energy prices was a key factor in reduction of the current account deficit. The current account dynamics 0 -0,04 -0,1 blns of USD -1 -0,7 -1,1 -2 -2,1 -1,2 -1,9 -1,4 -1,5 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 -2,1 -3 -2,7 -1,7 -2,9 -4 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 According to preliminary data, trade surplus increased by 41.7% compared with the 1st quarter of 2017 and amounted to US$ 6.1 billion. Exports of goods increased by 25.9% and amounted to US$ 13.8 billion. The cost of exports of oil and gas condensate (60.3% of total exports) increased by 35.5% due to increase in prices and quantitative volumes. Exports of non-ferrous metals increased by 8.5%, ferrous metals slightly decreased by 2.2%. Export of grain has almost doubled. 7 The trade balance dynamics 6,1 6 blns of USD 5 5,3 4,3 4,2 4 4,3 3,6 3,3 2,6 3 2,5 2,6 2,3 2,4 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 1,8 2 1 0 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Imports of goods increased by 15.7% and amounted to US$ 7.8 billion. The value of imports increased in all groups of primary trade nomenclature. The largest increase (by 24.8%) occurred on the import of investment goods (35.4% of total imports). Import of intermediate goods increased by 9.2%. Imports of consumer goods increased by 13.3% including import of food by 16.1%, non-foods goods – by 11.5%.
2. The income of foreign direct investors increased by 6 .7% to US$ 4.6 billion. More than half of nonresidents’ income from direct investments was directed to financing of Kazakhstani subsidiaries. According to preliminary data, on the financial account (excluding transactions with reserve assets of the National Bank) there was a net capital outflow in a sum of US$ 0.6 billion ensured by decrease in residents’ liabilities against the reduction in their assets. On foreign direct investment (FDI), net capital inflow amounted to US$ 2.6 billion. Inflow of capital was ensured by foreign affiliated companies’ repayment of their debt to Kazakhstani enterprises and reinvestment of nonresidents’ income. Capital outflows related to significant payments of dividends to nonresidents (so-called "super-dividends" which are classified according to the balance of payments classification as withdrawal of capital) partially compensated the inflow. On portfolio investment, the net outflow of capital amounted to US$ 1.8 billion mainly due to purchase of JSC “KazMunaiGas Exploration Production” in the market of its shares and global depositary receipts to increase its control by JSC “KazMunaiGas” over JSC “KazMunaiGas Exploration Production”, as well as growth of currency portfolio of JSC “'Unified Accumulative Pension Fund” and partial transfer of its assets in amount of US$ 220 million to external control. As of April 1, 2018, the reserve assets (excluding assets of the National Fund of Kazakhstan) were estimated at US$ 30.6 billion which cover funding of about 8.4 months of import of goods and services of the Republic of Kazakhstan. More detailed information can be obtained at: +7 (727) 270 45 85 +7 (727) 330 24 97 e-mail: press@nationalbank.kz http://www.nationalbank.kz