GCC Weekly Wrap - 14 May

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 14 , 2018 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,727.7 24,831.2 6,952.6 7,724.6 13,001.2 5,541.9 101,852.5 22,758.5 31,122.1 3,163.3 35,535.8 4.7 91.6 (11.0) 23.6 (21.6) (4.0) (528.2) 261.3 312.8 (11.2) 289.5 0.2 0.4 (0.2) 0.3 (0.2) (0.1) (0.5) 1.2 1.0 (0.4) 0.8 3.0 2.8 5.3 2.9 3.1 0.4 (2.3) 1.3 1.0 2.6 1.1 2.0 0.5 8.7 0.5 0.6 4.3 (11.7) 0.3 5.4 (3.8) 4.4 8,816.8 8,023.0 4,425.0 2,892.1 4,819.3 4,686.6 1,271.1 1,626.5 3,726.3 67.2 108.7 (12.8) 10.3 (9.3) 5.1 0.4 0.3 (0.0) 0.8 1.4 (0.3) 0.4 (0.2) 0.1 0.0 0.0 (0.0) (3.2) (2.3) (5.2) (5.7) 0.4 (0.9) 1.1 (3.5) 2.8 3.4 11.0 0.6 (14.2) NA (8.1) (4.6) 2.1 2.5 77.1 70.7 2.8 1,320.7 309.5 (0.4) (0.7) (0.0) (1.6) 0.3 (0.5) (0.9) (0.3) (0.1) 0.1 2.0 2.7 1.8 0.1 1.4 14.7 16.6 (4.7) 0.9 (6.2) Global The US equity markets continued to inch higher for the seventh consecutive session on Friday, with all major benchmarks, except Nasdaq, ending in the green. Healthcare shares outperformed its other sectoral peers, after the US President announced to reduce prices of prescription drugs. The Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 0.1% higher, largely on account of gains in Italian stocks. The UK’s benchmark rose 0.3%, driven by strength in Mining stocks, as gold prices inched higher. The UK’s benchmark index also found support from the latest round of encouraging earnings data from the local companies. The Nikkei index inched 1.2% higher, on the back of upbeat earnings data of the listed entities in the nation. The Chinese benchmark dropped 0.4%, on the back of losses in Financial and Consumer Staple shares. GCC Most GCC equity indices inched higher yesterday. The Saudi Arabian benchmark rose 1.4%, as oil prices remained at multi-year high levels. Dubai’s equity benchmark rose 0.4%. National Central Cooling advanced 4.1%, after announcing that it is exploring growth opportunities in new markets and countries. In Abu Dhabi, Dana Gas rose 3.8%, as the company revealed that it has reached a deal to restructure its USD 700mn sukuk. However, Union National Bank slipped 4.1%, after the lender’s Q1-18 earnings data missed market expectations. Qatar The QE index started the week on a positive note, ending 0.8% higher. Increased buying activity on the part of Qatari and international institutional investors contributed to the overall gains in the index. Trade turnover and volumes fell during yesterday’s trading session, with Banking and Telecom sectors together accounting for about 63.0% of the total volume. Out of the 45 listed shares, 43 exchanged hands, 25 advanced, 15 declined and 3 remained unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.4 1.3 4.6 50.5 DSM 20 13.1 1.4 5.0 36.5 8,800 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 18.0 1.8 3.3 1,012.6 8,400 UAE (ADX) 11.8 1.3 5.4 34.6 UAE (DFM) 10.0 1.1 5.9 47.7 Kuwait (KSE) 14.3 1.2 3.9 20.2 Oman (MSM) 11.7 1.0 5.1 5.6 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 8.3 0.8 6.4 1.3 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Mazaya Qatar Real Est. Qatar & Oman Invest. Al Khaleej Takaful Grp Barwa Real Estate Co Qatari Investors Group Top Losers Al Ahli Bank Doha Insurance Co Qatar Cinema & Film Mesaieed Petrochem Gulf Int’l Services Close Price 7.0 7.1 11.5 33.9 32.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.7 8.0 5.5 3.5 2.4 2.4 (22.3) (10.3) (13.2) 5.9 (12.0) (42.7) 1,439.6 45.6 (23.2) 527.3 43.1 (40.2) 0.3 43.8 1.3 147.5 8.1 (45.3) 31.2 15.8 30.0 12.1 22.0 15.8 17.0 (1.8) (0.4) (0.6) (0.3) (0.3) (5.5) (3.0) (2.7) (1.6) (1.5) (19.2) (13.4) (12.0) 25.5 (4.0) (7.1) (25.1) (32.0) 8.9 (28.7) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 2.4 1.3 0.0 214.4 97.1 9.7 14.2 18.1 16.2 39.9 Qatar DSM Index 9,200 8,816.8 20.0 10.0 8,000 14/Feb 0.0 28/Feb 14/Mar 28/Mar Index Volume (mn) 11/Apr 25/Apr 9/May Index Value Closing Level 2,999.6 5,713.3 3,001.9 2,894.1 1,686.5 997.1 1,783.7 1D Change (%) 0.7 (0.8) 0.9 0.1 1.2 0.3 0.4 Buy (%) 50.8 14.3 65.1 12.4 22.5 34.9 Sell (%) 57.2 13.1 70.3 13.1 16.6 29.7 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 14 , 2018 GLOBAL NEWS international markets. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Abu Dhabi based investment company Waha Capital has reported a 22.6% YoY increase in net profit to AED 107.0mn (USD 29.0mn) for Q118 driven by strong performance of the asset management division and the disposal of 3.77mn shares in AerCap. (Source: Trade Arabia) US ambassador Richard Grenell has assured that there will be no trade war with Germany and also appreciated that the Germans are doing a impressive job on trade. (Source: Reuters)  Sharjah based Dana Gas has reached an agreement with its USD 700.0mn Islamic bonds to restructure the securities and to end to a legal dispute. (Source: Trade Arabia)  The Canadian Prime Minister has expressed his optimism about reaching a new NAFTA trade deal with the US and a solution on US tariffs for steel and aluminum imports. (Source: Reuters)   European Central Bank President Mario Draghi stated that the euro zone needs an additional fiscal instrument to maintain convergence during large shocks, without having to over-burden monetary policy. Saudi Arabia’s economic growth is forecasted to reach 1.8% and 2.3% in 2018 and 2019 respectively slightly higher than what the IMF had predicted earlier this year, according to a new report by Alkhabeer Capital. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia based O3 Productions has partnered with Image Nation Abu Dhabi to co-finance and co-produce four Saudi films. (Source: Arabian  St. Louis Fed President, James Bullard, stated that there is no need to raise interest rate further as it has already reached a “neutral” level where it is no longer stimulating the economy. (Source: Reuters)  (Source: Reuters)  German unions and employers have agreed a 6.0% inflation breaking pay hike for more than 800,000 construction workers as it has been suggested by European Commission and IMF. (Source: Reuters)   China's broad money supply M2 grew 8.3% YoY in April-18, while the new loans grew 12.7% YoY to CNY 126.1tn as compared to 12.8% in March-18 according to PBOC. (Source: Reuters) Oman has entered into a MoU with Shell Gas & Power Developments to cover upstream gas exploration and development, gas-to-liquids (GTL), liquefied natural gas (LNG) and renewable energies in the country. (Source: Trade Arabia)  China’s central bank has announced that it will maintain its neutral monetary policy and keep liquidity and credit growth largely steady while keeping the domestic currency stable. (Source: Reuters) Bahrain based IT solutions and technical services provider Hilal Computers, has been welcomed into the Dell EMC President’s Circle Top 20 Partners from the MENA region. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain based telecommunications provider Zain Bahrain has reported a net profit growth of 120.0% YoY to BHD 1.1mn (USD 2.9mn) for Q1-18 by keeping up-to-date of the technological and services developments in the telecommunications sector. (Source: Trade Arabia)  China’s central bank has injected CNY 156.0bn (USD 24.6bn) to financial institutions via its 1-year medium-term lending facility and CNY 80.1bn through pledged supplementary lending. (Source: Reuters)  Turkey’s President has criticized interest rate lobby and international credit rating agency S&P for trying to upset the country by creating a false image by using country's production, employment rate, and exports data. (Source: AA) GCC NEWS  Business)  QATAR NEWS  Times)  Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs met his Argentinean counterpart in Buenos Aires to discuss bilateral relations and ways of developing them, in addition to issues of common concern. (Source: Gulf Times)  Dubai based Jebel Ali Free Zone generated a trading value of AED 16.0bn (USD 4.3bn) in FY-17, driven by higher trading activity by petrochemical companies, according to DP World. (Source: Trade Arabia) Ministry of Interior had carried out 22,834,779 transactions at its various departments and service centers in the Q1-18 which included include various e-services provided to the public. (Source: Gulf Times)  Dubai ranked first in the Arab world and fourth worldwide in ‘Economic Performance’ Pillar surpassing Canada, Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong as well as all EU countries, according to a report issued by the Switzerland-based IMD World Competitiveness Centre. (Source: Qatar's Public Works Authority, Ashghal, has completed the main works of the first zone of Al Wakrah Beach which includes 2,100-m interlock for the pedestrian walkways. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Ashghal started work on the QAR 920.0mn Mesaimeer Pump Station and outfall tunnel projects which includes the construction of a pumping station with 10 pumps and auxiliary facilities. (Source: Gulf Times)  Ashghal has completed the main works of Al Shamal Corniche Development Project and opened the area for public. (Source: Gulf Times)  The Indian school DPS-MIS laid foundation stone for its second campus in Al Wukair area which has its niche as the first choice school of the country’s Indian expatriate community. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Airways is planning to offer a nutritious Iftar meal box filled with healthy options to passengers to break their fast on selected routes across the Middle East, Pakistan, and Bangladesh as well as selected stations in India and Africa. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Islamic Bank has entered into an agreement with the non-profit organization Injaz Qatar to sponsor a three-year financial literacy program for select high schools and universities in Qatar with a focus on youth economic empowerment. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Centre for Career Development has partnered with Innovation Centre for Education to support top-quality clients with innovative services and products. (Source: Gulf Times) The US has signed a voluntary agreement, which applies to Etihad and Emirates Airlines to resolve US claims that Gulf carriers have received unfair government subsidies, according to the US State Department. (Source: Reuters)   Trade Arabia)  Dubai based mall retailer Majid Al Futtaim has partnered with Enova, a leading energy and facilities management specialist in the MENA to launch the first phase of solar photovoltaic plant at Mall of the Emirates in Dubai. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai based Jumeirah Golf Estates has announced the completion of the sale of all the 95 residential units at its Alandalus Townhouses development which will be delivered in three phases by the end of 2018. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai based restaurant business management group, Mint Trading Partners has signed a franchise agreement with London based Man’oushe Street to develop eight new branches in Bahrain besides seven other outlets in the eastern province of Saudi Arabia. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Qatar has asserted the importance of setting fair prices for local agricultural products to protect local items and encourage farm owners to increase production and achieve self-sufficiency. (Source: Gulf Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) is planning to invest AED 165.0bn (USD 45.0bn) in downstream business to expand its refining and petrochemical operations at Ruwais in the UAE as well as 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 14 , 2018 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1973 USD/QAR 3.6415 109.3900 EUR/QAR 4.3600 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3572 JPY/QAR 0.0333 USD/CHF 0.9998 GBP/QAR 4.9422 USD/CAD 1.2795 CHF/QAR 3.6422 AUD/USD 0.7543 CAD/QAR 2.8460 NZD/USD 0.6969 AUD/QAR 2.7468 USD/INR 66.8337 INR/QAR 0.0545 USD/TRY 4.3157 TRY/QAR 0.8438 USD/ZAR 12.2576 ZAR/QAR 0.2971 USD/BRL 3.6002 BRL/QAR 1.0115 Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration Overnight 1 Week 1.71 1.75 1.92 2.34 2.77 (0.44) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.19) LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year QAIBOR 2.00 2.17 2.39 2.63 3.01 SAIBOR NA 1.93 2.09 2.41 2.81 EIBOR 1.46 1.72 2.01 2.43 3.06 BMIBOR 1.65 1.88 2.43 2.78 3.38 NA NA 1.75 2.00 2.44 KIBOR Source: Bloomberg 2.76% 2.99% 2.95% 2.92% 2.25% 2.08% 1.92% 3.01% 2.53% 0.0% 2 Yrs SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 3.26% 4.0% 2.54% 2.0% 4.00% 4.24% 4.46% 2.83% 2.93% 2.96% 3.10% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 5.06% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Years CDS 2.0% 1.54% The USD fell for the third day on Friday against a basket of currencies as traders booked gains on its recent run-up spurred by the widening interest rate gaps in favor of the United States and signs of cooling growth in the rest of the world. The EUR and GBP both benefitted from a weaker USD. The GBP further got support from bargain hunting, as the currency fell to a 4 month low on Friday, after the BoE held interest rates steady and cut the inflation and growth forecasts. The CAD stood as an exception to the broader trend and closed lower against the greenback, after employment data came in weaker than expected. The AUD benefitted a little from a weaker USD, however showed little reaction to the release of Chinese monetary growth data which revealed that new bank loans and aggregate social financing both increased modestly over the month in April-18. 5 Yrs Qatar Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 4.0% FX Commentary 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change US 24.2 (4.1) Turkey 238.9 24.2 UK 18.5 (6.1) Brazil 186.7 5.4 Germany 11.8 (0.2) Egypt 328.1 (45.9) France 18.5 (1.8) Abu Dhabi 64.1 (4.3) Italy 98.1 (22.6) Bahrain 327.6 36.3 Greece 342.5 (146.7) Dubai 118.8 (22.4) Russia 132.0 (8.8) Qatar 90.6 (12.9) Japan 25.8 (8.2) Saudi Arabia 88.0 (18.4) Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 09:00 Japan Machine Tool Orders YoY Period Survey Prior Apr P - 28.10% 09:30 France Bank of France Ind. Sentiment Apr 103 103 15:30 15:30 Canada Teranet/National Bank HPI MoM Apr - 0.00% Canada Teranet/National Bank HPI YoY Apr - 07:30 6.60% Japan Tertiary Industry Index MoM Mar (0.20%) 0.00% Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Mobile Telecommunications Co Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) 258.9 4.8 (1.2) 40.9 7.0 9.4 1,361.0 5.2 (2.6) 421.8 (6.1) 46.6 Kuwait Projects Co Holdings NA NA NA 5.6 11.2 345.2 Waha Capital NA NA NA 107.4 22.6 (32.1) Ajman Bank NA NA NA 34.0 30.8 (10.9) 12.6 82.0 (60.4) 7.7 NA (75.9) (79.0) Union National Bank Eshraq Properties Co Rak Properties Gulf Medical Projects Al Babtain Power & Telecom. 62.9 (46.7) 19.2 24.6 (38.3) 124.5 14.1 3.5 17.8 NA 161.2 NA NA NA 19.4 (50.4) (47.4) Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 14 , 2018 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.2 2.7 0.0 11.2 3.3 6.8 5.8 5.3 0.0 4.2 7.6 4.1 7.1 4.6 8.9 6.4 6.0 4.6 6.0 0.0 0.0 7.1 8.0 6.2 6.3 0.0 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.0 2.3 7.8 8.4 4.4 0.0 6.2 4.0 4.5 7.1 4.3 7.4 5.5 0.0 8.8 6.3 5.1 N/A (‫)غ‬ 3.8 4.2 6.7 6.3 6.2 4.8 P/B Ratio (x) 1.3 1.0 1.7 1.0 1.3 0.8 2.2 0.5 0.8 1.8 1.5 2.2 0.9 1.8 0.8 1.9 2.3 1.0 2.0 1.3 0.4 3.7 0.8 1.6 0.8 0.9 0.5 2.1 1.4 2.4 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.7 0.6 0.6 1.4 0.7 2.3 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.0 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.3 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.7 1.4 P/E Ratio (x) 9.8 16.2 38.9 7.4 (H) (‫)م‬ 7.1 12.5 (H) (‫)م‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.8 9.5 10.0 43.2 10.5 4.0 21.2 14.3 18.2 12.3 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.6 5.4 11.0 12.0 39.8 10.8 18.7 16.1 12.8 15.9 9.3 10.5 16.1 44.1 14.2 30.4 13.4 11.9 21.1 8.0 28.5 48.2 9.6 14.3 11.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 15.9 10.7 9.5 13.0 10.8 12.4 EPS (QR) 3.1 2.3 0.4 3.6 0.2 1.6 2.7 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.5 5.6 14.5 0.2 5.9 11.1 2.9 9.8 1.2 11.0 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 6.2 13.8 5.8 0.8 0.4 0.5 6.0 1.0 15.1 2.0 4.1 5.1 2.6 0.3 0.9 1.1 3.7 4.2 1.6 4.2 0.3 0.2 1.5 0.9 5.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.6 3.8 1.6 4.3 2.2 3.0 BV/Share (QR) 23.9 37.7 8.2 27.2 24.0 14.5 15.6 19.5 7.5 58.1 34.5 66.7 8.4 35.3 58.3 32.3 62.9 21.5 65.8 4.5 12.5 16.1 99.1 41.1 12.9 19.8 10.4 53.7 11.2 81.6 21.6 31.0 44.7 24.2 19.6 20.3 24.0 69.2 21.4 31.2 46.6 11.4 12.7 30.0 17.2 70.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 19.5 26.6 15.1 118.1 32.2 26.2 Stock Price (QR) 30.0 36.7 13.5 26.8 30.5 11.0 34.2 9.5 5.6 102.1 53.0 145.0 7.1 44.8 62.1 141.2 22.0 134.3 5.6 5.6 59.5 74.0 9.6 17.0 5.6 112.8 15.8 192.5 32.2 38.6 53.5 11.5 12.1 33.0 48.8 49.3 33.9 9.1 7.0 14.2 68.8 9.2 40.5 15.0 55.9 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4