GCC Daily Market Update - 7 September

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 7 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,186.5 18,538.1 4,829.5 6,826.1 10,687.1 4,530.0 77,994.8 17,082.0 23,787.7 3,090.7 28,978.0 6.5 46.2 30.8 (53.4) 14.9 (11.1) 203.2 44.4 138.1 18.6 445.9 0.3 0.3 0.6 (0.8) 0.1 (0.2) 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 1.6 0.7 0.7 1.2 0.7 0.9 2.1 2.7 1.2 3.5 0.2 1.8 7.0 6.4 5.1 9.4 (0.5) (2.3) 8.7 (10.3) 8.5 (12.7) 11.0 10,713.2 6,190.4 4,515.4 3,544.2 5,399.7 5,769.4 1,128.1 1,534.1 3,000.3 (126.5) (13.7) 3.4 (2.0) 18.9 20.8 (7.1) 5.5 19.3 (1.2) (0.2) 0.1 (0.1) 0.4 0.4 (0.6) 0.4 0.7 (2.5) 1.8 1.0 1.1 (0.4) 0.6 (1.2) 0.1 1.5 2.7 (10.4) 4.8 12.5 (3.8) 6.7 (7.2) 5.6 7.3 47.3 44.8 2.7 1,350.4 208.4 (0.4) 0.4 (0.1) 27.2 1.3 (0.8) 0.9 (2.7) 2.1 0.6 1.1 0.9 (5.6) 3.2 1.5 27.5 21.8 16.6 27.4 (1.6) Global Most major global markets ended higher on Wednesday as investors weighed the chances of more stimulus from central banks in Europe and Japan. US Indices rose as a weaker than expected reading on nonmanufacturing PMI dimmed prospects of an interest rate hike. S&P 500 gained 0.3% led by energy stocks. High dividend paying telecom and utilities sectors also supported the broader index. Most of the European stocks ended in the red after disappointing US services data reignited worries about economic growth in the world’s largest economy. Germany’s DAX bucked the broader European market and rose 0.1% on the back of progress in merger talks between Bayer and Monsanto. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei edged up 0.3% on expectation of further stimulus, while China’s index rose 0.6% supported by consumer staples and automobile shares. GCC GCC markets ended on a mixed note on Tuesday. Saudi Arabia’s Index edged down 0.2% as the investors felt that Saudi-Russia deal may do little to boost oil prices in the long term as the two countries did not announce specific steps to restrain output. Dubai’s Index fell 0.1% led by Shuaa Capital which fell 5.5% on profit booking after the stock surged 15% the previous day. Abu Dhabi’s index edged up 0.1% on the back of gains in Abu Dhabi National for Building Materials Co which rose 10.6%. Qatar QE index fell 1.2% as several blue chips pulled back, with Qatar National Bank losing 2.3% and Industries Qatar falling 1.9%. Strong selling activity was majorly witnessed in Banking, Telecom and Consumer goods sectors. In terms of volume, Banking, Telecom, Realty and Industrials stocks together accounted for more than 85% of the total traded. Domestic institutions were net sellers on the bourse. Out of the 44 companies listed, 41 exchanged hands, of which 33 declined, 7 advanced and 1 stayed unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 14.1 1.6 3.8 93.3 DSM 20 14.9 1.6 3.8 83.8 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 14.6 1.4 3.8 614.6 UAE (ADX) 12.1 1.5 5.4 22.0 UAE (DFM) 12.7 1.3 4.2 101.9 Kuwait (KSE) 18.5 1.0 4.4 19.1 Oman (MSM) 10.1 1.1 5.0 5.2 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.4 0.4 4.9 1.9 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Widam Food Co Doha Insurance Co Qatar Int. Islamic Qatar Elect & Water Co Qatar National Cement Top Losers Medicare Group Vodafone Qatar Qatar German Co Gulf Warehousing Co. Al Khaleej Takaful Close Price 65.0 21.4 64.9 219.7 86.5 1.6 0.4 0.4 1.3 0.2 2.5 2.1 0.6 0.6 0.2 23.1 2.1 0.9 1.5 (6.7) 86.5 11.3 11.1 54.3 23.0 (4.0) (0.5) (0.4) (1.9) (0.7) (4.4) (4.3) (3.5) (3.4) (2.9) (27.5) (11.4) (19.1) (4.6) (24.6) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 28.0 (9.0) (11.7) 4.7 (7.5) 52.0 0.0 86.2 68.5 11.3 14.5 12.2 12.5 15.5 10.9 (48.2) 30.8 21.2 (16.6) 1,156.3 NA (17.4) 61.7 NA (10.4) 64.1 14.5 (30.4) 5.4 21.1 Qatar DSM Index 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 12/Jun 20.0 10,713.2 10.0 0.0 26/Jun 10/Jul 24/Jul Index Volume (mn) 7/Aug 21/Aug 4/Sep Index Value Closing Level 2,907.2 6,357.4 3,239.2 4,613.3 2,568.0 1,229.7 2,537.6 1D Change (%) (1.7) (1.2) (1.1) (0.0) (1.0) (1.7) (0.5) Buy (%) 22.7 13.5 36.2 9.2 54.6 63.8 Sell (%) 19.7 46.5 66.2 5.3 28.5 33.8 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 7 , 2016 GLOBAL NEWS   USD fell and Asian stocks rose to one-year highs on Wednesday after a weak US services sector activity slimed chances of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve as early as this month. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.4%, extending its gain of 2.7% over the last two days. (Source: Reuters) Canadian pipeline company Enbridge Inc. agreed to buy Houston’s Spectra Energy Corp. in an all-stock deal valued at about USD 28bn, creating a major North American energy-infrastructure company.  Zawya)     The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will leave its monetary easing program unchanged at its policy meeting in September-16, given little deterioration in economic fundamentals and growing caution about the risks of expansion, a former BOJ executive director said. (Source: Mohammad Oman Bin Haider Holding Group has announced a mega project on Al Marjan Island, spread across 1.4mn sq ft, featuring a fivestar luxury hotel, luxurious apartments, commercial buildings and retail area, valued at AED 1bn. (Source: Khaleej Times)  Oman Logistics Company plans to award a license for the operation and management of its ‘dry port’ project before the end of this year, Acting CEO of the company said. The selection is in the final stages. Australia’s economy expanded at the fastest pace in four years, at 0.5% QoQ in Q2-16, driven by a 15.5% QoQ rise in public investment, 1.9% QoQ rise in government spending and continued strength in resource exports. (Source: Bloomberg) Australia's central bank held interest rates steady at 1.5%, citing that the monetary easing announced in August-16 and May-16 are yet to percolate through the economy. The central bank board said that holding the stance of policy unchanged would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time. (Source: Reuters)  Moody’s said that credit profiles of most non-Turkish EMEA companies with operations in Turkey will be largely unaffected by the political uncertainty in the country. (Source: Moody’s)  The Central Bank of Turkey reduced reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points for all maturity brackets in a bid to provide additional liquidity to markets. The bank estimated that approximately TRY 1.2bn (USD 408mn) and USD 670mn of liquidity would be provided to the financial system with the changes. (Source: Anadolu Agency) Arabia) (Source: Oman Daily Observer)   UAE listed companies’ earnings dropped by 8% YoY in H1-16 as low oil prices and weak economic growth impacted performance, according to the Kuwait Financial Centre. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai-based Emirates NBD has bid for the purchase of British bank Barclays' Egyptian business. Emirates NBD, which is being advised by New York-based Perella Weinberg Partners. Barclays is seeking to sell its African operations to simplify its structure and improve shareholder returns. (Source: Arabian Business)  Abu Dhabi plans to merge International Petroleum Investment Co. and Mubadala Development Company to form an asset pool of about USD 135bn and debt of about USD 42bn. (Source: Livemint)  Abu Dhabi real estate developer Eagle Hills is in talks with Moroccan and international banks to finance half the costs of Fairmont Residences project worth USD 150mn in Morocco's capital Rabat, the company's GM said. (Source: Arabian Business) Passenger traffic through Dubai International Airport rose by 14% YoY to a record 7.6mn in July-16, according to the Dubai Airports. The figure is significantly higher than the average monthly growth of 7% YoY during the first seven months of the year. (Source: Arabian Business) Bahrain’s Prime Minister launched work on a USD 120mn (BHD 45mn) Development project in Muharraq, Bahrain. The project, which links Muharraq’s historic souq with a modern waterfront through a footbridge, will feature recreational, touristic, and commercial facilities. (Source: Arabian Business) QATAR NEWS  Qatar supports joint statement released by Saudi Arabia and Russia after the meeting held at G20 summit, which stated that the two countries will co-operate to contain the excess volatility in the oil market, Qatar’s Minister of Energy and Industry said. The minister further added that Qatar is working in its capacity as Opec President with all members to pursue price stability in the oil markets. (Source: The Peninsula)  CPI rose 0.2% MoM and 2.9% YoY to 108.7 points in August-16, according to the Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics. The food and beverage saw a price increase of 1.1% MoM in August-16, with transportation costs rising 0.8% ona monthly basis for the same period. (Source: Mubasher)  Qatar’s public and private investments in France have touched USD 22bn, French Minister of State for Foreign Trade said. He further added that, France is currently the second biggest destination of Qatar’s global capital outflow. (Source: The Peninsula)  The trading activity of 11 Qatari licensed brokerage firms increased by 32% MoM in August-16, with a total turnover of QAR 13.6bn, compared to QAR 10.3bn in July-16. The total number of transactions rose 70.7% MoM to 199,800 in August-16 from 116,350 transactions in July-16. The Group Securities Company acquired 35% of total transactions with 69,900 deals for the period. (Source: Mubasher)  Three Qatari entities signed partnership agreement with various French organizations to train Qatar-based experts in the fields of health and education at an investment meet organized by Qatari Businessmen Association (QBA) and the French Embassy in Doha. GCC NEWS  Saudi Arabia's Arabian Drilling Company is considering bidding for Dalma Energy, in a deal which could value the land rig operator at more than USD 500mn. US investment bank Goldman Sachs had been hired to arrange the sale of Dalma, which is owned by a consortium of investors through Saudi-based Al Qahtani Investments. (Source: Trade China National Chemical Corp. has secured commitments from lenders on a USD 12.7bn loan for its purchase of Swiss pesticides producer Syngenta AG. The fundraising would put the state-owned firm a step closer to completing the country’s biggest-ever acquisition outside its borders. (Source: Bloomberg) Bloomberg)  Dubai’s developer Nakheel unveiled Ibn Battuta Residences, a new twin-tower complex with 531 luxury apartments, to be built next to Ibn Battuta Mall in Dubai. The project is set for delivery in Q4-19. (Source: Arabian Business)  (Source: WSJ)  Officials from Expo 2020 Dubai announced that its 80% of investments made for the expo will be retained following the event. This includes the infrastructure, as well as the cutting edge technologies, the roads and public transport systems put in place to host the Expo. (Source: (Source: The Peninsula)  The Supreme Committee for Delivery & Legacy announced the main contractor for Qatar Foundation Stadium, located in Education City. J&P Qatar WLL, Conspel Qatar WLL, J&P Avax SA and J&P (Overseas) Ltd have been awarded the contract as a JV. (Source: Zawya) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 7 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1285 USD/QAR 3.6414 102.0200 EUR/QAR 4.1093 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3470 JPY/QAR 0.0357 USD/CHF 0.9697 GBP/QAR 4.9050 USD/CAD 1.2844 CHF/QAR 3.7552 AUD/USD 0.7687 CAD/QAR 2.8351 NZD/USD 0.7418 AUD/QAR 2.7991 USD/INR 66.0250 INR/QAR 0.0552 USD/TRY 2.9225 TRY/QAR 1.2460 USD/ZAR 13.9800 ZAR/QAR 0.2605 USD/BRL 3.1964 BRL/QAR 1.1392 FX Commentary The dollar index dropped almost 1% on Tuesday, registering its biggest drop since late July. USD tumbled after economic data showed the US service sector grew at its slowest pace since early 2010, which reduced expectations for a near-term interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve. JPY gained 1.3% majorly due to weakness in USD. The AUD jumped 1.3% against the greenback, bolstered in part by the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.5%. The NZD rose 1.5% against its US counterpart supported by a rise in milk prices after a strong dairy auction in New Zealand. CAD notched its strongest close in almost three weeks against a broadly weaker greenback, as investors cheered stronger domestic data released last week and signs that energyproducing countries may work together to tackle a supply glut. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.42 0.44 0.52 0.83 1.56 (0.40) (0.38) (0.37) (0.30) (0.05) LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% QAIBOR 0.97 1.10 1.38 1.56 1.93 4.0% SAIBOR NA NA 2.06 2.34 2.63 2.0% EIBOR 0.35 0.46 0.75 1.21 1.79 BMIBOR 0.43 0.65 0.95 1.33 1.83 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.25 1.56 2.19 0.0% 3.90% 1.90% 2.25% 2.25% 1.00% 1.27% 1.51% 2.22% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 0.95% 0.59% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 25.7 5.7 Turkey 241.0 (37.4) UK 33.6 (4.1) Brazil 251.6 (157.4) Germany 16.2 (3.6) Egypt 395.7 (126.1) France 28.5 (5.9) Abu Dhabi 69.6 (44.9) 133.8 0.4 Bahrain 374.1 11.2 1.91% 1.58% 2.0% 2.21% 2.69% 0.99% 1.0% 0.0% 0.86% 2 Yrs 1.25% 1.14% 1.39% 1.70% Italy Greece 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 1,026.7 (397.1) Dubai 154.1 (75.5) Russia 205.3 (98.9) Qatar 89.2 (27.1) Japan 31.5 (15.0) Saudi Arabia 147.5 (17.0) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 09:00 Germany Industrial Production SA MoM Period Survey Prior Jul 0.10% 0.80% 09:00 Germany Industrial Production WDA YoY Jul 0.20% 0.50% 10:30 UK Halifax House Prices MoM Aug (0.10%) (1.00%) 10:30 UK Halifax House Price 3Mths/Year Aug 7.00% 8.40% 11:30 UK Industrial Production MoM Jul (0.20%) 0.10% 11:30 UK Industrial Production YoY Jul 1.90% 1.60% 11:30 UK Manufacturing Production MoM Jul (0.30%) (0.30%) 11:30 UK Manufacturing Production YoY Jul 1.70% 0.90% 14:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Sep-02nd -- 2.80% 16:00 Russia CPI Weekly YTD Sep-05th -- 3.90% 16:00 Russia CPI WoW Sep-05th -- 0.00% 17:00 Canada Bank of Canada Rate Decision Sep-07th 0.50% 0.50% 02:50 Japan BoP Current Account Balance Jul ¥2073.3b ¥974.4b 02:50 Japan Trade Balance BoP Basis Jul ¥571.2b ¥763.6b 02:50 Japan GDP SA QoQ 2Q F 0.00% 0.00% 02:50 Japan GDP Annualized SA QoQ 2Q F 0.20% 0.20% 02:50 Japan GDP Deflator YoY 2Q F 0.80% 0.80% Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 7 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mannai Corp. Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.6 7.2 0.0 8.0 1.7 5.8 4.7 2.8 0.0 3.9 6.2 1.8 5.4 3.3 5.6 4.2 4.8 5.0 0.0 8.4 4.2 4.8 5.0 6.3 2.8 4.4 6.0 3.8 3.5 2.5 7.0 3.8 4.2 4.3 4.9 2.2 3.0 6.8 2.6 6.1 2.7 1.9 7.1 3.8 3.0 0.0 2.3 2.2 5.1 5.6 4.9 3.6 P/B Ratio (x) 1.7 1.0 2.4 1.1 2.5 1.1 2.4 0.9 1.1 1.9 1.8 2.2 1.1 1.8 2.6 3.3 1.5 2.1 1.3 0.8 4.4 0.8 2.0 1.2 1.7 2.1 1.6 1.7 3.3 2.6 1.4 1.8 2.0 1.1 1.0 2.7 0.7 2.8 1.8 0.8 1.7 1.1 0.7 1.2 1.4 2.0 1.6 2.3 1.7 0.8 1.2 1.7 P/E Ratio (x) 11.9 15.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.6 (H) (‫)م‬ 9.7 13.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 47.6 12.1 12.4 11.3 30.0 11.7 22.0 26.3 13.1 11.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.7 14.4 6.7 13.0 15.0 18.5 17.1 8.1 19.5 15.2 21.9 11.3 10.9 16.3 21.2 11.7 19.9 4.5 13.1 13.0 17.3 27.9 13.8 16.1 22.9 12.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 20.0 16.5 13.8 10.3 12.4 14.2 EPS (QR) 3.4 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 5.0 0.2 1.8 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.2 9.0 5.2 14.2 0.4 6.0 4.1 8.2 2.4 13.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.5 12.6 6.3 1.0 1.9 6.6 10.4 0.9 14.1 2.3 3.8 8.0 3.0 1.1 1.8 4.4 10.2 4.5 5.1 2.1 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.9 8.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.8 3.4 1.8 8.7 3.0 3.3 BV/Share (QR) 24.1 44.1 9.5 35.2 24.7 16.4 15.7 20.5 10.3 56.6 35.5 74.2 9.9 38.1 34.9 64.7 20.9 73.5 8.6 14.2 14.6 104.7 41.2 12.2 21.0 53.8 52.6 11.0 65.7 19.5 30.3 48.4 24.3 20.8 21.0 32.4 70.7 21.0 37.9 46.0 11.0 13.1 30.0 16.9 69.9 5.8 23.4 24.2 14.5 115.6 31.2 27.1 Stock Price (QR) 40.1 41.7 22.7 37.5 62.4 17.3 37.3 17.8 11.4 108.5 64.5 160.0 11.1 89.8 215.0 31.5 153.0 11.5 11.9 64.3 84.0 15.1 35.5 112.9 84.0 18.2 215.0 50.0 43.0 86.8 23.3 20.4 88.0 46.0 59.0 36.0 18.2 14.3 21.1 100.8 11.8 55.8 24.7 89.7 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4