GCC Daily Market Update - 31 July

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE July 31 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,472.1 21,830.3 5,908.9 7,368.4 12,162.7 5,131.4 107,699.7 19,959.8 26,979.4 3,253.2 32,309.9 (3.3) 33.8 (8.1) (74.6) (49.3) (55.6) (692.0) (119.8) (151.8) 3.5 (73.4) (0.1) 0.2 (0.1) (1.0) (0.4) (1.1) (0.6) (0.6) (0.6) 0.1 (0.2) 2.0 2.3 4.6 0.8 (1.3) 0.2 7.2 (0.4) 4.7 1.9 4.5 10.4 10.5 21.5 3.2 5.9 5.5 37.8 4.4 22.6 4.8 21.3 9,469.6 7,115.8 4,577.1 3,608.9 6,795.2 5,064.0 1,332.4 1,691.1 3,342.4 (93.5) (59.3) 8.8 2.7 (10.1) 16.4 (3.1) (0.1) (0.0) (1.0) (0.8) 0.2 0.1 (0.2) 0.3 (0.2) (0.0) (0.0) 4.9 (4.2) 3.4 6.4 0.5 (1.1) 1.7 7.3 2.2 (9.3) (1.3) 0.7 2.2 18.2 (12.4) 9.2 7.6 15.0 52.5 49.7 2.9 1,268.4 287.5 1.0 0.7 (0.0) 8.4 0.1 2.0 1.4 (0.9) 0.7 0.0 10.4 8.4 (5.0) 2.1 7.3 (6.9) (7.1) (22.6) 10.1 15.5 Source: Bloomberg Global US stocks ended mostly lower on Friday, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq leading the losses, while Dow Jones outperforming its peer indices, closing at record high levels. Losses in Nasdaq index were driven by shares of Amazon.com, as the company reported a sharp decline in its Q2-17 earnings. Shares of Tobacco companies were also under pressure, amid reports that the US Food and Drug Administration has called to reduce nicotine content in cigarettes. European markets inched lower on Friday, led by losses in Banking stocks, as disappointing quarterly earnings report of the European lenders weighed on their shares. Technology stocks were among the other notable losers. Japanese stocks declined on Friday, amid weakness in the US Technology shares in the previous day and a strength in the Yen. However, Chinese stocks rose on back of encouraging economic data. GCC GCC markets traded mixed yesterday. Saudi Arabia’s benchmark traded lower, after a slew of large caps posted weak quarterly earnings. Indexheavyweight SABIC retreated 1.2%, after reporting a net profit of SAR 3.7bn, below analysts' estimates of SAR 4.6bn. Abu Dhabi market inched 0.2% higher, led by gains in Dana Gas (+1.6%), which was the most traded stock, yesterday. Dubai's index closed near flat as 17 shares rose and 10 declined. Small cap stocks, often traded by short term speculative traders, were the top performers. Qatar QE index traded 1.0% lower, amid a muted trading session. Foreign and Gulf institutional investors were among the net sellers in yesterday’s trading. Trade turnover and volumes fell, with Banking and Telecom sectors together accounting for about 68.0% of the total volumes. Stocks that were related to oil were among the worst performers, led by Gulf International Services and Industries Qatar. Out of 44 companies listed, 41 exchanged hands, of which 35 declined, 5 advanced and 1 remain unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 14.2 1.4 4.0 38.7 DSM 20 15.9 1.6 3.6 25.3 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 16.9 1.6 3.4 667.4 UAE (ADX) 12.4 1.4 4.5 18.7 UAE (DFM) 16.8 1.3 3.9 41.8 Kuwait (KSE) 19.1 1.2 5.2 27.8 Oman (MSM) 11.5 1.1 5.4 2.8 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 8.3 0.8 5.9 1.4 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Zad Holding Co Qatar National Cement Vodafone Qatar Mesaieed Petrochem Qatar National Bank Top Losers Dlala Holding Islamic Holding Group Qatar & Oman Invest Qatar Cinema Gulf Warehousing Co Close Price 73.9 74.0 8.9 13.2 141.0 5.8 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.5 1.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 (17.2) (5.3) (4.6) (16.8) (4.8) (18.1) 0.7 9.6 (8.2) 3.4 12.4 (23.0) 1,626.1 NA (31.9) 58.2 16.6 2.3 66.8 10.4 18.3 50.0 8.7 26.3 48.3 (0.8) (2.0) (0.3) (0.8) (1.3) (4.4) (3.8) (2.8) (2.8) (2.5) (15.0) (18.0) (13.0) (4.4) (13.8) (29.2) (24.4) (22.1) (19.0) (17.2) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 306.5 18.0 27.1 0.3 2.7 31.0 73.3 24.7 43.0 13.5 Qatar DSM Index 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 3/May 30.0 9,469.6 20.0 10.0 0.0 17/May 31/May 14/Jun Index Volume (mn) 28/Jun 12/Jul 26/Jul Index Value Closing Level 2,907.4 5,591.5 2,891.8 4,115.1 2,072.3 1,181.5 2,023.5 1D Change (%) (0.6) (0.2) (1.6) (0.4) (0.8) (0.9) (0.8) Buy (%) 56.0 24.0 80.0 9.6 10.4 20.0 Sell (%) 49.6 16.0 65.6 12.5 21.9 34.4 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE July 31 , 2017 GLOBAL NEWS  US GDP grew by an annualized pace of 2.6% in Q2-17 as compared to downwardly revised 1.4% growth in Q1-17. Growth was driven by 2.8% rise in consumer spending, however negative contribution from private residential fixed investment, private inventory investment, and state and local government spending limited the rise. (Source:  Saudi Arabia’s Makkah real estate market witnessed a positive turn overall in H1-17, as the government eased its policies on the number of Hajj and Umrah pilgrims, according to report of JLL. The report further stated that Hospitality and Retail Real Estate is would lead growth in H2-17. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Aramco’s advisers to the proposed public issue of shares have recommended London for the listing of the shares, sources said. The company plans to raise USD 100.0bn through IPO by offering 5.0% of its shares. The final decision on the venue for the listing will be taken by Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Kuwait's commitment rate on limiting oil production stood at 99.0% in H1-17, the nation’s Minister of Oil said. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Moody's Investors Service has downgraded Bahrain's long-term issuer ratings to B1 from Ba2 and maintained the negative outlook as it views that credit profile of the government will continue to weaken considerably in the coming years. The agency has also lowered long term foreign-currency bond ceiling to Ba2 from Baa3 and long-term foreign-currency deposit ceiling to B2 from Ba3. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Moody's Investors Service has downgraded the Oman's long-term issuer and senior unsecured bond ratings to Baa2 from Baa1 and changed the outlook to negative from stable due to the limited progress towards addressing structural vulnerabilities to a weak oil price environment. It has also lowered long-term foreign-currency bond ceiling to Baa1 from A3. (Source: Trade Arabai)  Oman based Dhofar Generation Company will start generating power from a new natural gas-fired 445 MW plant (Salalah II) in January-18, according to a report by the Oman Power and Water Procurement Company. It added that electricity demand in the Dhofar region is expected to grow from an average of 348 MW in 2016 to 559 MW in 2023. (Source: Trade Arabia) Nasdaq)   US total durable goods order rose by 6.5% MoM in June-17 driven by 131.2% MoM rise in orders for civilian aircraft whereas orders for capital goods, excluding military equipment and aircraft, fell by 0.1% MoM in June-17. (Source: USA Today) Australia’s Final Demand Producer Prices rose to 0.5% QoQ in Q2-17 driven by rise in the prices for heavy and civil engineering construction, building construction and other agricultural products. (Source: Market Insider)  Japan’s consumer prices rose by 0.4% YoY in June-17, however were steady over the month. Core CPI, which excludes food prices, also rose by 0.4% YoY in June-17. (Source: Market Insider)  Japan’s average household spending grew by 2.3% YoY in June-17 and average of monthly income per household grew by 0.1% YoY to JPY 735,477 during the month. (Source: Market Insider)  Japan’s Retail sales grew by 0.2% MoM and 2.1% YoY in June-17 driven by large retailer’s which accounted for 0.2% MoM growth. (Source: Market Insider) GCC NEWS  The aggregate net profit of 18 listed banks on Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and Dubai Financial Market grew 5.5% YoY to AED 19.0bn (USD 5.2bn) in H1-17. The growth was in unison with the UAE Banks Federation's estimates which claims that the banking sector will secure a 5.0% profit growth during the H2-17. (Source: WAM)  Dubai Investments Real Estate Company has inked worth AED 1.1bn (USD 299.5mn) financing deal with First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) and Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB) for its Mirdif Hills development in Dubai. The project is being constructed in phases with a project cost in excess of AED 3.0bn (USD 816.5mn). (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai Electricity and Water Authority’s 13.0 MW first phase of the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park has got the International Renewable Energy Certificates (I-REC). (Source: Trade Arabia)  The Abu Dhabi General Services Company (Musanada) completed the emergency department renovation and expansion project worth AED 44.0mn (USD 12.0mn) at Al Rahba Hospital which has to be handed over to Abu Dhabi Health Services Company (Seha) in the Q3-17, said company’s acting Infrastructure and Housing director. (Source: WAM)  Abu Dhabi based National Central Cooling Company (Tabreed) recorded a 20.0% YoY growth in net profit during H1-17 to AED 192.7mn (USD 52.4mn) driven by its core chilled water business with new capacity and connections added across the GCC. Revenue of the group stood at AED 639.2mn. (Source: WAM)   Total passengers passing through Sharjah International Airport (SIA) registered an increase of 2.9% YoY during H1-17. Aircraft movement increased 3.8% YoY to more than 37,300 movements during the same period. (Source: WAM)  Foreign merchandise trade balance, difference between total exports and imports, increased 63.6% YoY to a surplus QAR 12.5bn in June-17. The YoY increase in total exports was mainly due to higher exports of petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons, which reached QAR 11.9bn approximately in June-17. The import of goods decreased 40.0% YoY in June-17 to QAR 5.9bn. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Credit quality of banking sector improved despite an unfavorable macro environment. Non-performing loans (NPL) in absolute terms declined by nearly 3.0% during the 2016 and stood at 1.3% of gross loans, according to QCB. The share of NPL from the private corporate sector registered a marginal decline while that from cross-border credit declined considerably. (Source: Gulf Times)  The aggregate balance sheet of Qatar’s domestic insurance firms grew by 13.3% YoY to QAR 44.5bn in the end of 2016, according to QCB report. Gross written premium rose by 11.8% YoY to QAR 12.6bn. (Source: Gulf Times)  Hotels in Qatar can tap into niche sectors through special offers to attract more tourists into the country as the Qatar Tourism Authority opened up new markets, said Sheraton Grand Doha’s General Manager. (Source: Gulf Times)  Aamal Company’s net profit fell 13.0% YoY in H1-17 to QAR 266.6mn due to ongoing redevelopment work at City Centre Doha and several one-off contracts being awarded in 2016. Loss of control of two subsidiaries in industrial manufacturing division further contributed to the fall. (Source: Gulf Times)  Vodafone Qatar has reported a rise in its net profit to QAR 44.0mn in Q1-18 (period ended June 30) compared to loss of QAR 99.6mn in Q117. Revenue grew by 3.1% YoY to QAR 516.0mn in Q1-18 driven by increase in subscriber base by 0.4% YoY to 1.46mn during the quarter. Bank of Sharjah’s net profit declined 13.6% YoY in H1-17 to AED 152.0mn due to a marginal increase in cost of funds. Earnings per share for the period were down by 14.0% and reached 7.0 fils. (Source: Trade Arabia)  QATAR NEWS Ras Al-Khaimah based RAK Properties net profit grew 59.0% YoY in H117 to AED 62.0mn (USD 16.8mn) and revenue stood at AED 211.0mn (USD 57.4mn). Firm attributed its results to strong off-plan sales backed by increased marketing support. (Source: Trade Arabia) (Source: The Peninsula) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE July 31 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1781 USD/QAR 3.6415 110.6800 EUR/QAR 4.2901 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3166 JPY/QAR 0.0329 USD/CHF 0.9687 GBP/QAR 4.7944 USD/CAD 1.2433 CHF/QAR 3.7592 AUD/USD 0.7987 CAD/QAR 2.9289 NZD/USD 0.7514 AUD/QAR 2.9085 USD/INR 63.6537 INR/QAR 0.0572 USD/TRY 3.5276 TRY/QAR 1.0323 USD/ZAR 13.0261 ZAR/QAR 0.2796 USD/BRL 3.1316 BRL/QAR 1.1628 FX Commentary The USD traded lower against a basket of currencies on Friday, with the dollar index ending 0.6% lower to 93.34. The USD weakened after the US Q2-17 GDP data came in lower than market expectations, adding to the worries of the US Federal Reserve before it considers to pace up its monetary tightening policies. However, better than expected US consumer sentiment data provided some support to the greenback. The EUR traded higher, after the German consumer price index and Eurozone economic sentiment data came in better than expectations. The CHF declined for the fourth consecutive session, despite encouraging domestic data released on Friday. The CAD continued its upward trajectory, as the Canadian May-17 GDP data beat market expectations, strengthening the case for another rate hike from the Bank of Canada. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.18 1.20 1.23 1.31 1.73 (0.43) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.15) 1.95 2.14 2.35 2.60 3.01 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.35 1.46 1.80 2.24 2.0% EIBOR 0.98 1.15 1.31 1.52 2.13 BMIBOR 1.00 1.25 1.75 1.98 2.73 NA NA 1.56 1.75 2.31 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 2.13% 1.35% 0.0% 2 Yrs 2.84% 3.08% 3.33% 1.83% 2.10% 2.28% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 5 Yrs Qatar 4.34% 2.89% 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 27.0 (3.2) Turkey 184.2 (90.1) UK 19.4 (13.7) Brazil 216.0 (32.1) Germany 15.2 (6.8) Egypt 407.4 (16.5) France 19.4 (24.0) Abu Dhabi 58.6 (1.6) Italy 137.0 (33.4) Bahrain 249.0 (8.8) Greece 629.2 (454.4) Dubai 127.2 (18.9) Russia 164.8 (14.2) Qatar 93.0 (24.9) Japan 26.1 0.0 Saudi Arabia 96.3 8.0 2.0% 1.59% 2.24% 2.06% 1.90% 1.74% 1.0% 0.0% 2.55% 1.35% 1.18% 0.88% 1.05% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 11:30 UK Mortgage Approvals Period Survey Prior Jun 65.0k 65.2k 12:00 Italy 12:00 Italy CPI EU Harmonized MoM Jul P (1.90%) (0.20%) CPI EU Harmonized YoY Jul P 1.20% 1.20% 03:30 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Jul F - 52.2 Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Ezdan Holding Group NA NA Vodafone Qatar NA NA NA 208.8 (38.9) (77.9) NA (57.1) (42.7) Aamal Co NA (23.0) NA NA 125.8 (0.4) National Leasing 9.9 NA NA NA (9.7) NM NM Dlala Holding NA NA NA 3.9 377.6 (61.8) Qatar & Oman Investment Co NA NA NA 1.0 (11.0) (89.8) Saudi Basic Industries Corp NA NA NA 3,710.0 (21.7) (29.1) Ahli United Bank B.S.C NA NA NA 151.9 3.6 (4.7) Alawwal Bank NA NA NA 322.0 (40.3) (0.6) Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE July 31 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 27th July 2017) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.1 0.0 0.0 7.7 1.9 5.6 4.8 3.6 0.0 4.9 6.8 2.3 5.6 3.2 5.1 3.5 5.9 3.7 5.8 0.0 8.6 5.4 6.6 5.6 5.3 4.4 4.0 4.6 3.7 2.0 7.0 5.0 4.1 3.5 4.2 1.9 4.8 5.7 2.4 7.4 3.8 0.0 7.3 5.0 3.6 0.0 2.9 3.2 5.5 5.2 5.1 3.7 P/B Ratio (x) 1.2 0.7 2.2 1.0 2.1 0.8 2.6 0.7 0.9 1.6 1.6 2.1 0.9 1.7 1.4 2.6 2.4 1.3 1.7 1.3 0.7 4.0 0.6 1.6 0.9 1.2 1.9 1.2 2.8 2.4 1.4 1.6 1.7 0.8 0.7 2.4 0.4 2.9 1.5 0.7 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.9 1.2 0.6 0.9 1.5 P/E Ratio (x) 9.6 70.6 32.9 9.5 75.1 11.3 15.3 (H) (‫)م‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.2 11.1 10.2 25.1 11.6 7.1 35.5 16.0 44.3 13.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.4 11.5 5.4 12.1 15.9 (H) (‫)م‬ 19.2 16.6 14.3 22.8 9.7 12.2 17.6 33.9 9.3 20.9 15.7 14.3 19.3 9.9 17.0 24.8 10.5 13.9 17.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 25.0 13.8 11.7 12.9 12.4 13.9 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.4 0.6 3.4 0.7 1.2 2.7 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 9.6 5.3 13.8 0.4 5.4 11.0 2.5 9.5 0.6 8.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.9 5.6 12.6 5.4 0.7 0.0 5.3 0.8 14.2 2.2 4.4 6.0 2.3 0.5 1.6 3.4 2.0 4.3 2.8 3.4 0.8 0.5 1.6 1.1 5.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.3 3.6 1.6 5.2 2.3 2.9 BV/Share (QR) 25.0 42.3 8.7 34.2 24.3 16.9 16.3 20.1 8.7 60.6 36.7 68.1 9.6 37.6 54.5 33.9 63.0 20.9 65.8 6.4 14.0 16.2 112.9 41.6 12.7 19.5 52.9 10.9 73.6 20.6 31.6 45.7 24.0 20.9 21.3 29.4 70.7 21.0 35.7 46.7 11.2 12.6 30.3 17.1 69.7 5.5 23.2 26.1 15.0 122.0 32.8 27.3 Stock Price (QR) 30.6 31.4 19.1 32.5 52.0 13.4 41.8 13.9 7.6 97.4 59.2 140.8 8.9 77.9 87.0 151.7 27.0 111.0 8.3 9.3 64.5 68.1 11.3 23.0 100.9 13.1 203.5 49.6 43.0 73.1 17.2 14.4 70.5 31.2 61.0 33.7 13.1 11.3 17.1 98.0 8.9 49.5 18.3 67.0 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4