GCC Daily Market Update - 3 April

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 3 , 2018 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,581.9 23,644.2 6,390.8 7,056.6 12,096.7 5,167.3 114,442.1 21,388.6 30,093.4 3,163.2 33,255.4 (59.0) (458.9) (190.3) NA NA NA (488.1) (65.7) NA (5.7) 286.7 (2.2) (1.9) (2.9) NA NA NA (0.4) (0.3) NA (0.2) 0.9 (2.2) (1.9) (2.9) (2.4) (2.7) (2.9) (0.4) (0.3) (2.4) (0.2) 0.9 (3.4) (4.3) (0.1) (8.2) (6.4) (2.7) (0.8) (6.0) 0.6 (4.4) (2.4) 8,729.2 7,783.5 4,581.6 3,107.0 6,633.4 4,750.2 1,294.6 1,651.0 3,563.8 60.1 (17.4) (1.9) (29.4) 29.9 13.0 (8.5) (1.0) (49.8) 0.7 (0.2) (0.0) (0.9) 0.5 0.3 (0.7) (0.1) (1.4) 1.8 (1.1) (0.1) (0.1) (2.1) (0.5) (1.8) (0.1) (1.4) 2.4 7.7 4.2 (7.8) 3.5 (6.8) (2.8) 3.7 (2.1) 67.6 63.0 2.7 1,342.1 305.0 (2.6) (1.9) (0.1) 19.3 2.5 (3.7) (3.0) (1.8) 1.5 0.8 (3.6) (2.9) (1.9) 1.5 1.3 1.3 4.4 (9.2) 2.5 (7.2) Source: Bloomberg Global Most global equity markets started Q2-18 on a negative note weighed by fresh jitters about trade war after Chinese regulators announced tariffs on about 130 US goods. All major US equity indices ended lower, weighed by weakness in Consumer Discretionary sector, as Amazon tumbled after US President’s critical comments indicating that the company’s business practices are detrimental to the US Postal Service. The Nasdaq index fell 2.9%, weighed by weakness in Technology stocks on concerns about introduction of new regulation in industry to increase the data security. Most of the European markets remained closed on account of a holiday. In Asia, the Chinese benchmark fell 0.2% following announcements of retaliatory measures on US trade tariffs. The Japanese benchmark declined 0.3%, after reports showed a decline in the domestic large manufacturers’ business confidence for Q1-18. GCC Most GCC equity markets ended lower yesterday. The Saudi Arabian benchmark continued to decline, on account of profit booking, after FTSE’s announcement. The Dubai benchmark declined 0.9%, amidst Emaar Properties declining 2.6% on account of continued concerns about domestic real estate market outlook. The Bahrain’s benchmark declined 0.7%, as the investors shrugged off the announcements made by the government about the discovery of one of the largest oilfields of the nation. Qatar The QE index advanced 0.7% during yesterday’s trading session on account of buying interest amongst foreign institutional investors. Trade turnover and volumes increased during the trading session, with the Banking and Industrials sectors together accounted for about 71% of the total volume. Out of the 45 listed stocks, 43 exchanged hands of which, 23 advanced, 16 declined and 4 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.0 1.2 5.0 82.6 DSM 20 13.0 1.3 5.0 58.1 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.1 1.7 3.3 1,138.0 UAE (ADX) 11.8 1.3 5.2 48.4 UAE (DFM) 10.9 1.1 5.8 47.4 Kuwait (KSE) 15.2 1.1 5.7 74.0 Oman (MSM) 12.2 1.0 5.1 10.1 Bahrain (BAX) 8.8 0.8 6.3 0.9 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Gulf Int’l Services National Leasing Qatar General Ins. & Re Commercial Bank Qatar Insurance Co Top Losers Doha Insurance Co Zad Holding Co Mesaieed Petro Hold. Qatar Fuel Medicare Group Close Price 20.5 10.8 45.0 31.0 38.2 0.9 0.5 1.5 0.6 0.6 4.8 4.8 3.4 2.0 1.7 15.5 0.8 (8.2) 7.3 (15.6) (27.1) 1,535.7 44.7 (43.5) 285.2 180.5 14.8 35.3 12.8 (2.1) 448.7 34.2 (37.8) 117.6 33.5 12.6 86.0 15.4 114.2 68.1 (1.1) (5.8) (0.7) (3.6) (1.3) (8.0) (6.3) (4.6) (3.1) (1.8) (10.0) 16.8 22.4 11.8 (2.5) (24.3) 0.1 14.9 5.2 21.2 10.3 4.0 2,471.1 17.8 (15.3) 107.9 11.8 (28.1) 6.0 23.9 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 9,500 20.0 8,729.2 9,000 8,500 10.0 8,000 7,500 4/Jan 0.0 18/Jan 1/Feb 15/Feb Index Volume (mn) 1/Mar 15/Mar 29/Mar Index Value Source: Bloomberg QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Closing Level 2,857.2 5,487.4 2,965.3 3,127.9 1,842.5 1,095.6 1,809.7 1D Change (%) 1.0 (1.7) 0.3 1.6 (0.8) (0.1) 0.3 Buy (%) 39.2 38.8 78.0 13.9 8.1 22.0 Sell (%) 36.5 46.1 82.6 14.2 3.2 17.4 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 3 , 2018 Petroleum Authority which will act as the regulatory body for monitoring licensing rounds and tendering process. (Source: Arabian GLOBAL NEWS    US total construction spending increased by a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.1% MoM to USD 1.3tn in February-18. Spending on private construction increased by 0.7% MoM to USD 982.0bn, while spending on public construction increased by 2.1% MoM to USD 291.1bn during the same period. (Source: Census) Japan’s total monetary base increased by 9.1% YoY in March-18, driven by yearly increase in current account balances by 10.6%. Banknotes in circulation increased by 4.3% YoY, while coins circulation increased by 1.2% YoY during the same period. (Source: BOJ) China’s President as a part of his plans to control financial risk has urged local governments and enterprises to reduce their leverage which will gradually lower macro-economic leverage ratio. (Source: Business)  The Saudi Arabian Ministry of Finance has announced that it has received approval from Capital market authority to list 45 bonds and sukuk amounting to SAR 204.4bn (USD 54.4bn), including government development bonds (SAR 77.7bn), floating rate notes (SAR 68.2bn) and Government Sukuk (SAR 58.4bn) on 8th April-18. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Oman’s Information Technology Authority has signed a partnership agreement with Oman Oil Company (OOC) to enable OOC and its subsidiaries to benefit from the cyber security services. (Source: Times of Oman)  The construction work for a major cotton yarn manufacturing project worth USD 300.0mn at Sohar Free Zone has been started, which is set up by India based ShriVallabh Pittie Group. (Source: Muscat Daily)  Oman based Bank Sohar has received an approval to distribute cash dividend at a rate of 5.0% of the total capital and bonus shares at a rate of 10.0% of the capital for FY-17. (Source: Muscat Daily)  Bahrain based digital solutions provider Batelco has launched new international cable system called Batelco Gulf Network that provides the GCC region with an additional option for regional and international connectivity solutions. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain International Investment park (BIIP) in Hidd has attracted BHD 715.0mn in investments in 2017 with 82% of its land allocated for a total of 118 projects providing full-time employment for 4,383 individuals according to Ministry of Commerce. (Source: GDNonline)  Bahrain based Ahli United Bank has received an approval to distribute cash dividend at a rate of 13.0% of the total capital and bonus shares at a rate of 5.0% of the capital for FY-17. (Source: Arab Times)  Commercial Bank of Kuwait has has received an approval to distribute cash dividend at a rate of 18.0% of the total capital in addition to the bonus shares at a rate of 10.0% of the capital for FY-17. The bank has also received approval to raise its capital to KWD 181.1mn. (Source: Reuters)  Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has kept its cash rate unchanged at 1.50%. RBA’s Governor stated that as the global economic conditions have improved and a number of central banks have withdrawn some monetary stimulus from their economies. (Source: RBA)  India has imposed a 10% tax on imports of key smartphone components which includes populated printed circuit boards which accounts for half of Smartphone’s cost in order to promote domestic assembly practices. (Source: Reuters)  India’s core sector (infrastructure output) grew 5.3% YoY in February18 due to a steep rise in output of cement and fertilizers as per the data release by Ministry of Commerce and Industry. (Source: Reuters)  Turkey’s foreign trade deficit widened by 28.0% YoY to USD 5.8bn in March-18, driven by increase in energy imports. Exports increased by 8.0% YoY to USD 15.6bn, while imports rose by 12.8% YoY to USD 21.4bn. (Source: Hurriyet News Daily) GCC NEWS     UAE’s foreign direct investment increased by 7.3% YoY to reached USD 10.3bn in 2017 due to incremental investments resulting from liberal approach adopted by the government and ease of doing business in the nation according to the UAE Competitiveness and Statistics Authority. (Source: Trade Arabia)  UAE’s re-exported goods trade value grew 2.7% YoY to reach AED 546.5bn (USD 148.8bn) in 2017 reflecting the country’s ever-growing registered trade in re-exported goods. Re-exported goods formed 47.4% of the UAE’s exports during the last year. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Qatar Financial Center Authority expects the ETFs to grow on a faster pace in future, as more companies are licensed by the Center to participate in the trading activity on the Exchange. (Source: The Peninsula)  The total amount of dividends distributed by firms listed on Qatar Exchange increased by 13.9% YoY to QAR 22.1bn for FY-17. Out of 45 listed companies, 17 companies increased their distributions by an average of 41.0%. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  The Minister of Transport and Communications stated that by 2020 all the government services would be made available online. The Minister has introduced the ‘Digital Transformation of SMEs’ program that is expected to benefit around 5,000 companies by the end of 2019. Dubai’s external trade in hardware and tools trade reached AED 4.8bn (USD 1.3bn) in 2017, with imports amounting to AED 3.4bn, re-exports amounting to AED 1.4bn and exports amounting to AED 30m, according to Dubai Customs. China and US were the largest trading partners. (Source: Trade Arabia) Dubai's Roads and Transport Authority has granted two contracts priced a total of AED 1.3bn (USD 354.0mn) to complete the third and fourth phase of roads leading to Expo 2020 project which includes improvement of intersections and construction of two flyovers. (Source: Mubasher) QATAR NEWS (Source: Gulf Times) Trade Arabia)    Sharjah Investment and Development Authority has entered into a joint venture with developer Nakheel to build a new community retail centre in the emirate with and an expected construction value of AED 75.0mn. (Source: Arabian Business) Construction works of Sharjah based shopping mall City Centre Sharjah’s revamp project amounting to AED 260.0mn (USD 70.7mn) is nearly complete. The project would increase the gross leasable area of the mall by 36% to 51,428 sqm. (Source: Arabian Business) Government of Ras Al Khaimah (RAK) has launched its first petroleum licensing round for 2018 and will create a new Ras Al Khaimah Qatar is expected to become one of the fastest growing construction markets on a global basis driven by a forecasted annualized average sector expansion rate of 14.1% till 2022, according to BMI Research. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatargas Operating Company Limited has signed a MoU with the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand to identify and evaluate ideas for the LNG industry, particularly in the sharing of knowledge and expertise in procurement of LNG, LNG transportation, and floating storage and regasification units. (Source: The Peninsula)  Amwal, the Qatar Financial Centre (QFC) authorized firm, has successfully listed the largest exchange-traded fund in the GCC region, according to a senior official of the QFC Authority. (Source: Gulf Times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 3 , 2018 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.2332 USD/QAR 3.6415 105.8900 EUR/QAR 4.4907 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.4074 JPY/QAR 0.0344 USD/CHF 0.9551 GBP/QAR 5.1250 USD/CAD 1.2913 CHF/QAR 3.8127 AUD/USD 0.7663 CAD/QAR 2.8200 NZD/USD 0.7213 AUD/QAR 2.7905 USD/INR 64.6775 INR/QAR 0.0563 USD/TRY 3.9725 TRY/QAR 0.9167 USD/ZAR 11.8486 ZAR/QAR 0.3073 USD/BRL 3.3132 BRL/QAR 1.0991 FX Commentary The USD ended lower against a basket of major currencies yesterday with dollar index ending 0.1% lower to settle at 90.036. The weakness in the USD was partly attributed to fresh concerns about a global trade war, after Chinese regulators imposed tariffs on a range of US agricultural goods, in a move to tackle US imports on Chinese goods. The trading volume was thin as European markets remained closed on account of Easter holiday. The JPY strengthened after demand for safe haven currencies increased amidst escalating tensions between the US and China due to the import tariff announcements. The CAD weakened against its US counterpart, weighed by sharp decline in oil prices. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.70 1.75 1.88 2.31 2.66 (0.43) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.19) LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% QAIBOR 2.26 2.32 2.41 2.62 3.03 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.90 2.03 2.28 2.67 2.0% EIBOR 1.53 1.69 1.91 2.37 2.79 BMIBOR 1.63 1.90 2.43 2.78 3.28 NA NA 1.75 2.00 2.50 KIBOR 2.64% 2.26% 2 Yrs Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 2.56% 2.70% 2.73% 2.77% 2.0% 1.0% 2.31% 2.14% 1.98% 2.82% 2.57% 1.58% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs 3.47% 3.54% 2.56% 2.69% 2.74% 2.97% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 0.0% Source: Bloomberg 3.0% 4.74% 3.40% 5 Yrs Qatar Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change US 27.5 (0.8) Turkey 196.9 14.8 UK 18.9 (7.3) Brazil 167.5 (22.6) Germany 11.7 (1.4) Egypt 272.5 (85.0) France 18.7 (3.3) Abu Dhabi Italy 102.8 (38.9) Greece 365.5 Russia 124.9 Japan 25.5 63.4 2.8 Bahrain 297.4 56.3 (165.6) Dubai 107.6 (25.4) (11.7) Qatar 89.9 (8.3) (13.7) Saudi Arabia 86.6 2.0 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 09:00 Germany Retail Sales MoM Period Survey Prior Feb 0.70% (1.00%) 09:00 Germany 10:45 Italy Retail Sales YoY Feb 2.40% 2.30% Markit/ADACI Italy Manufacturing PMI Mar 55.5 56.8 10:50 France 10:55 Germany Markit France Manufacturing PMI Mar F 53.6 53.6 Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI Mar F 58.4 11:00 58.4 Eurozone Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Mar F 56.6 56.6 11:30 UK Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Mar 54.7 55.2 02:01 UK BRC Shop Price Index YoY Mar - (0.80%) 03:30 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Services Mar - 51.7 03:30 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Composite Mar - 52.2 Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Makkah Construction & Dev. NA NA NA 25.3 (53.5) (67.7) Osoul Investment NA NA NA (0.1) NA NA Al-Massaleh Real Estate NA NA NA (1.4) NA NA National Shooting Company NA NA NA (0.6) NA NA Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 3 , 2018 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 29th March 2018) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.0 3.3 0.0 11.1 3.3 6.8 5.7 4.9 0.0 4.4 8.0 4.6 6.9 5.0 7.1 5.8 6.0 4.0 7.3 0.0 0.0 7.2 6.4 6.6 6.2 0.0 4.1 4.8 4.8 4.1 2.2 7.7 8.0 4.6 0.0 5.3 3.5 4.9 7.3 4.0 7.5 4.8 0.0 8.4 5.8 4.2 0.0 3.3 4.2 6.5 6.2 6.1 4.9 P/B Ratio (x) 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.6 2.0 0.5 0.8 1.5 1.1 1.8 0.8 1.4 0.9 1.9 2.1 1.2 1.6 1.0 0.5 3.1 0.9 1.4 0.8 0.9 0.6 1.9 1.3 2.3 1.6 1.1 1.2 1.6 0.5 0.7 1.5 0.6 2.1 1.1 0.7 0.9 0.6 4.9 0.9 1.1 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.7 1.3 P/E Ratio (x) 10.4 20.1 20.2 7.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.2 13.1 164.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 9.6 9.1 9.1 24.6 10.1 5.1 27.0 14.6 20.2 11.3 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.8 6.7 11.1 12.2 40.2 12.4 19.2 17.0 12.8 16.7 10.0 11.2 16.5 17.9 16.7 28.2 12.8 11.7 20.7 7.6 16.5 30.1 8.7 11.6 13.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 18.9 11.0 10.0 13.8 11.3 12.2 EPS (QR) 3.0 1.5 0.6 3.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 2.7 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.2 5.5 14.2 0.3 5.7 11.1 2.5 9.7 1.2 9.7 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 6.0 15.2 5.4 0.8 0.5 0.5 5.5 0.9 14.7 2.0 3.9 5.0 2.4 0.6 0.8 1.3 3.5 4.1 1.7 4.4 0.6 0.2 1.7 1.2 6.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.7 1.5 4.1 2.1 3.0 BV/Share (QR) 25.2 42.1 48.6 34.9 24.0 17.5 17.6 20.1 8.4 64.7 45.0 73.4 8.8 40.1 64.5 35.6 69.0 21.1 71.1 6.0 12.9 19.0 116.2 44.7 12.7 19.8 10.5 56.6 11.6 81.7 21.4 34.4 48.0 25.0 19.3 20.8 25.1 70.8 23.4 32.4 48.6 11.4 12.8 3.0 14.7 72.2 5.3 23.7 27.9 15.7 118.3 32.8 27.6 Stock Price (QR) 31.5 30.0 11.8 27.0 30.2 11.1 35.3 10.3 6.4 97.5 50.0 130.0 7.3 56.2 68.6 142.0 25.2 110.0 5.8 5.8 59.0 101.0 9.7 18.4 6.1 105.1 14.7 188.0 33.9 39.0 56.0 10.3 14.1 37.5 45.0 48.2 33.5 10.5 7.3 14.9 82.5 8.7 40.5 15.3 56.5 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4