GCC Daily Market Update - 29 January

Transcription

1. WEEKLY WRAP January 29 , 2017 ECONOMIC UPDATE & NEWS Period Survey Actual Prior Jan 111.3 109.8 111 Jan-20th -- 4.00% 0.80% 2.70 4Q A 0.50% 0.60% 0.60% 2.50 2.30 UST 10yr Bond US MBA Mortgage Applications US GDP QoQ US GDP YoY 4Q A 2.10% 2.20% 2.20% Russia Gold and Forex Reserve Jan-20th -- 385.9b 385.4b US Initial Jobless Claims Jan-21st 247k 259k 237k US New Home Sales Dec 588k 536k 598k Japan Tokyo CPI Ex-Frsh Food YoY Jan (0.40%) (0.30%) (0.60%) 1.70 Italy Manufacturing Confidence Jan 103.3 104.8 103.7 1.50 US GDP Annualized QoQ 4Q A 2.20% 1.90% 3.50% US Durable Goods Orders Dec P 2.50% (0.40%) (4.80%) US Univ. of Mich. Sentiment Jan F 98.1 98.5 98.1 Source: Bloomberg GLOBAL NEWS  US GDP grew by an annualized 1.9% in Q4-16, a marked drop from 3.5% in Q3-16. For FY-16, the GDP grew by 1.6% compared to 2.6% in the previous year. (Source: Market Watch)  Euro-area government debt to GDP ratio fell to 90.1% in Q3-16, from 91.5% in Q3-15, which is the lowest since Q4-12. (Source: Bloomberg)  The UK budget deficit narrowed by GBP 0.4bn over the previous year to GBP 6.9bn in Dec-16. (Source: Morning Star)  German inflation could hit 2% in Jan-17 due to higher energy prices, the Bundesbank said. (Source: Reuters)  Japan's exports rose 5.4% YoY in Dec-16 on the back of strong sales of electronics and car parts. (Source: Reuters)  Preliminary data showed that China’s fiscal deficit grew to CNY 2.83tn in 2016, compared to CNY 2.18tn estimated. (Source: Reuters)  China's central bank raised the one year and six months mediumterm lending facility rates by 10 bps each, in its bid to cut debt and bolster financial stability. (Source: Reuters)  Turkey’s central bank raised its overnight lending interest rate by 75bps to 9.25%, however the one-week repo and overnight borrowing rates were kept unchanged. (Source: Bloomberg)  Russian banks made profit of RUB 930bn in 2016, compared to RUB 192bn made in 2015. (Source: Reuters) GCC NEWS 2.43 2.10 27-Jan 19-Jan 11-Jan 03-Jan 26-Dec 18-Dec 10-Dec 02-Dec 24-Nov 31-Oct 1.90 16-Nov Event Germany IFO Business Climate 08-Nov Region Source: Bloomberg the rate was negative. (Source: Central Department of Statistics)  The Saudi finance ministry said there would be no fees applied on remittances out of the country. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Basic Industries Corp. signed an agreement to acquire its remaining stake in Shell Arabia for USD 820mn. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Aramco is operating about 220 drilling rigs on the back of continued investment in capacity despite low oil prices, Saudi Arabia's energy minister said. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabia's hotel industry witnessed a 4.8 percentage points drop in occupancy, due to low oil prices, according STR. (Source: Trade Arabia)  The weighted average interest rate of deposits in OMR increased from 0.904% in Nov-15 to 1.443% and Nov-16 period. (Source: CBO)  Bahrain’s BHD 70mn issue of Government Treasury Bill, with a maturity of 91 days and a weighted average rate of 2.18% has been fully subscribed. (Source: CBB)  Kuwait picked six banks for advice on its first international debt sale, which include Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and HSBC Holdings Plc as lead managers on the sale, the people familiar with the matter disclosed. (Source: Bloomberg) QATAR NEWS  Producer price index of the industrial sector grew 0.4% MoM in Nov16, mainly due to increase in manufacturing, and electricity & water sectors. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar’s total domestic public debt rose by QAR 29.7bn to reach QAR 427.8bn at the end of 2016. The balance of Qatar Government bonds and bills with banks increased about QAR 13bn to QAR 133.9bn.  The rated banks in the GCC continued to display good asset quality, profitability, and capitalization in 2016 by global standards, albeit with signs of deterioration, S&P said. (Source: Trade Arabia)  UAE's gross bank assets increased 1.6% MoM to AED 2,610.8bn, while deposits grew by AED 41.7bn in Dec-16. (Source: Central bank of UAE)  Qatar was the 2nd largest exporter of LNG to China in Dec-16, having exported 9 cargoes to the mainland. (Source: Hellenic Shipping News)  The UAE hospitality sector posted a slight increase in occupancy rates (which stood 75.0%) in 2016, but ADR and RevPAR declined 9.2% and 9.0% YoY respectively, according to data by STR. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Qatar has been ranked number two for best business climate out of 50 ranked emerging markets, according to 2017 Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index. (Source: Gulf Times)  UAE and India signed a deal that allows the Gulf nation to fill half of the underground crude oil storage facility at Mangalore, India. (Source:  The Ministry of Education and Higher Education has granted initial approval to 63 new private schools to open in the next academic year, an official said. (Source: The Peninsula) (Source: QCB) Arabian Business)  UAE’s Money supply aggregate M1 increased 0.3% MoM to AED 474.0bn in Dec-16, while M2 increased by 1.0% MoM to AED 1,225.5bn. (Source: Central bank of UAE)  Total assets of Qatar’s banks increased 5.8% YoY to QAR 1,271.8bn while customer deposits increased 5.2% YoY to QAR 726.9bn in Dec16. (Source: QCB)  Non-oil merchandise exports of Saudi Arabia declined 9.1% YoY to SAR 14.4bn in Nov-16 while total merchandise imports declined 22.3% YoY to SAR 39.8bn. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Total credit facilities of Qatar banks increased 2.8% MoM to QAR 844.0bn in Dec-16. (Source: QCB)  Saudi Arabia’s annual consumer inflation slowed to 1.7% in Dec-16 from 2.3% in Nov-16, its lowest mark in 10 years. On a MoM basis,  Total credit facilities to the real estate sector increased to QAR 175.4bn in Dec-16 from QAR 174.1bn in Nov-16. (Source: QCB) 1
2. WEEKLY WRAP January 29 , 2017 EQUITY Index Price Index Price WTD %Δ 2,294.7 1.0 2.5 2.5 MSCI EM 915.9 2.5 6.2 6.2 20,093.8 1.3 1.7 1.7 S&P GCC 1,672.1 1.3 6.4 6.4 S&P 500 DJIA WTD %Δ MTD %Δ YTD %Δ COMMENTARY MTD %Δ YTD %Δ Nasdaq 5,168.1 2.1 6.3 6.3 Dow Jones Islamic 2,999.4 1.1 3.2 3.2 FTSE 100 7,184.5 (0.2) 0.6 0.6 KSA (TASI) 7,134.9 3.8 (1.0) (1.0) DAX 30 11,814.3 1.6 2.9 2.9 UAE (DFM) 3,701.5 0.3 4.8 4.8 CAC 40 4,840.0 (0.2) (0.5) (0.5) UAE (ADX) 4,624.2 (1.7) 1.7 1.7 BIST 100 83,827.4 0.9 7.3 7.3 Qatar (DSM) 10,989.8 0.4 5.3 5.3 Nikkei 19.2 19,467.4 1.7 1.8 1.8 Kuwait (KSE) 6,852.3 6.5 19.2 Sh. Comp 3,159.2 1.2 1.8 1.8 Bahrain (BAX) 1,300.1 4.9 6.5 6.5 Hang Seng 23,360.8 2.1 6.2 6.2 Oman (MSM) 5,751.0 0.3 (0.5) (0.5) Sensex 27,882.5 3.1 4.7 4.7 Jordan (ASEGI) 2,146.4 (0.2) (1.1) (1.1) Source: Bloomberg GLOBAL INDICES Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) 3.1 Sensex MSCI EM Hang Seng Nasdaq Nikkei DAX 30 DJIA Sh. Comp S&P 500 BIST 100 Jordan (ASEGI) FTSE 100 CAC 40 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.9 (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 7.3 BIST 100 Nasdaq MSCI EM Hang Seng Sensex DAX 30 S&P 500 Nikkei Sh. Comp DJIA FTSE 100 CAC 40 Jordan (ASEGI) 2.5 6.3 6.2 6.2 4.7 2.9 2.5 1.8 1.8 1.7 0.6 (0.5) (1.1) (5.0) 4.0 Source: Bloomberg 0.0 5.0 10.0 Source: Bloomberg GCC INDICES Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) Kuwait (KSE) 6.5 Bahrain (BAX) KSA (TASI) 5.3 UAE (DFM) 1.1 Qatar (DSM) 6.4 Qatar (DSM) 1.3 Dow Jones Islamic 19.2 6.5 S&P GCC 3.8 S&P GCC Kuwait (KSE) Bahrain (BAX) 4.9 4.8 Dow Jones Islamic 0.4 3.2 UAE (DFM) 0.3 UAE (ADX) Oman (MSM) 0.3 Oman (MSM) (0.5) KSA (TASI) (1.0) UAE (ADX) (1.7) (4.0) (2.0) 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 (10.0) 8.0 Source: Bloomberg 1.7 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 Global US indices closed on a positive note as markets rallied mid-week led by higher than expected earnings by prominent firms. President Trump’s call for lesser regulations and some pro-growth executive orders further boosted optimism in the market. Some negative macroeconomic data releases, which included weaker than expected GDP growth, limited gains. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 closed 1.1% higher led by momentum in Banking stocks in early part of the week. UK’s benchmark posted a weekly loss on back of a strong GBP. The upbeat Q4-16 UK GDP, which increased by 2.2% YoY helped limit losses. In Asia, Nikkei advanced 1.7% as Japan’s exports rose more than expected and sentiment remained upbeat on the global economic recovery. GCC Most Gulf indices rose this week. Saudi Arabia’s benchmark rose 3.8% after three weeks of declines. Utilities, Telecom and Materials sector led the rise, increasing 11.4%, 6.3% and 5.3% respectively. Gains in the Utility sector were supported by a rally in Saudi Electricity Company and GASCO. In UAE, Dubai index was up 0.3% while Abu Dhabi’s benchmark fell 1.71%. Kuwait’s KSE index again outperformed its peer Gulf indices, closing 6.5% as local and regional funds poured into the market to catch its momentum. Buying activity was majorly concentrated in the Financial Services and Real Estate sector. Qatar QE Index gained 0.4% during the week as local retail investors’ net selling pressure weakened and their non-Qatari counterparts turned net buyers on the bourse. Buying activity was majorly concentrated in Banking and Telecom sectors. Trade turnover and volumes were on the decline with Real Estate, Banking and Telecom sectors together accounting for more than 79% of the volumes. Of the 44 stocks listed, 19 rose, 22 declined and three were unchanged during the week. Mazaya Qatar, Barwa and Masraf Al Rayan dominated the trading ring in terms of both volumes and value. Source: Bloomberg DSM INDEX 12,000 10,989.8 11,000 10,000 9,000 Aug-16 Sep-16 Index Oct-16 50 SMA 100 SMA Dec-16 200 SMA Jan-17 Indicator Price Last Close 10,989.8 MAVG 50 10,340.5 MAVG 100 10,340.3 MAVG 200 10,296.4 6 Month High 11,408.8 6 Month Low 9,636.4 RSI (14 Days) 77.3 Source: Bloomberg 2
3. WEEKLY WRAP January 29 , 2017 RATES & CREDIT US Treasury (%) Qatar Treasury (%) 3.50 6.00 3.06 3.00 2.29 2.50 4.78 5.00 2.49 1.22 1.67 1.00 0.50 3.00 1.92 2.07 3.51 3.09 2.83 2.00 4.53 3.18 2.85 2.00 1.50 3.87 4.00 2.74 1.95 1.33 1.00 0.78 1.69 0.00 0.00 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs 10 Yrs Current 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current Last Year Source: Bloomberg 10 Yrs 30 Yrs Last Year Source: Bloomberg CDS 5 Years CDS 2 Yrs 30 Yrs Qatar Govt. Int. Bonds Price (BPS) WTD Δ (BPS) MTD Δ (BPS) YTD Δ (BPS) Global Maturity Price (USD) Z Spread (BPS) Yield (%) WTD Δ (USD) YTD Δ (USD) QGS 2018 100.4 38.9 1.46 (0.0) 0.1 US 26.6 (1.0) (0.2) (0.2) QGIB 2019 109.5 53.2 1.95 (0.1) (0.5) UK 28.4 (0.5) (2.6) (2.6) QGIB 2020 108.3 64.4 2.24 0.1 0.2 Germany 20.2 0.1 (1.6) (1.6) Qatari Diar 2020 98.7 75.9 2.63 0.3 0.6 France 41.2 1.1 4.2 4.2 QGIB 2021 108.0 79.2 2.48 0.1 0.5 QGIB 2022 107.6 85.6 2.79 0.3 0.4 QGS 2023 101.9 79.0 2.85 (0.1) (0.4) QGIB 2026 97.9 116.2 3.48 (0.0) 1.2 QGIB 2030 157.4 168.4 4.08 0.1 2.5 QGIB 2040 127.5 188.8 4.44 (0.5) 2.2 QGIB 2042 118.5 190.7 4.48 (0.5) 1.7 QGIB 2046 101.5 191.2 4.50 (1.2) 1.2 Italy 166.6 11.8 9.4 9.4 Greece 1,019.1 (60.9) (28.4) (28.4) Russia 177.3 (5.1) (54.0) (54.0) Japan 28.0 (2.5) (2.0) (2.0) Turkey 272.5 (2.3) (0.7) (0.7) Brazil 246.0 (6.4) (34.7) (34.7) Egypt 403.6 (21.9) (48.8) (48.8) GCC US Swap Rates Abu Dhabi 58.0 (2.4) (3.4) (3.4) Bahrain 240.1 (29.4) (62.3) (62.3) Dubai 140.0 (2.5) (9.8) (9.8) Qatar 82.6 (2.8) 2.3 Saudi Arabia Source: Bloomberg, QCB 112.3 (0.6) (1.1) Price (%) Weekly Δ (BPS) YTD Δ (BPS) 3M LIBOR 1.039 (0.004) 0.041 6M LIBOR 1.362 0.004 0.044 2.3 12M LIBOR 1.728 (0.005) 0.043 (1.1) 2 years 1.514 (0.002) 0.057 5 years 2.017 0.015 0.040 10 years 2.397 0.034 0.059 30 years 2.658 0.056 0.063 International Credit Spreads iTraxx Europe 70.2 1.0 (2.5) (2.5) iTraxx Europe Crossover 291.8 5.3 0.5 0.5 CDX North America IG 64.2 (1.9) (3.6) (3.6) CDX North America HY 341.7 (7.7) (12.4) (12.4) iTraxxSovX CEEMEA NA NA NA NA iTraxx Europe Senior Financial 59.8 (1.3) (10.2) (10.2) iTraxx Europe Sub Financial 100.9 (13.7) (23.8) (23.8) Tenor Source: Bloomberg Commentary US Treasury yields rose during much of the week as President Donald Trump signed a flurry of executive orders, which included some of pro-growth measures, like reviving the Keystone XL and Dakota Access pipelines. The poor GDP report on Friday largely reversed a rise in Treasury bond yields. The Q4-16 GDP numbers showed that the US economy grew by an annualized 1.9%, as net exports eroded 1.7 percentage points from GDP, the most since the second quarter of 2010. Poor demand for the USD 28bn 7 year note auction, also weighed on yields. Source: Bloomberg 3
4. WEEKLY WRAP January 29 , 2017 COMMODITIES Commodities Price Commentary Brent (USD/bbl) 55.5 WTI Crude (USD/bbl) 53.2 Oil posted its second consecutive weekly gain, after the OPEC along with Russian officials said they were making good progress on their pledges to cut back oil production. The officials further added that 24 oil producers had already collectively cut production by 1.5 mn barrels a day, which is over 80% of the total pledged. Higher American output evidenced by EIA report showing a weekly increase in crude supplies, along with a fourth-straight weekly jump in gasoline inventories, capped gains. Second weekly rise in active drilling rigs also weighed on prices. Gold fell in response to a firmer dollar and a rally in equity markets. The losses were however, capped after disappointing US GDP data pushed demand for the safe haven. Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) 3.4 Gold (USD/t oz.) 1,188.4 Silver (USD/t oz.) 17.1 Copper (USD/lb) 269.0 Source: Bloomberg Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) Natural Gas Copper WTI Crude Silver Brent Gold (1.4) Copper Silver Gold WTI Crude Brent Natural Gas 5.8 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.1 (2.0) 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 7.3 7.2 3.2 (1.0) (2.3) (9.8) (15.0) Source: Bloomberg (10.0) (5.0) 0.0 5.0 10.0 Source: Bloomberg FX Currencies Price Currencies Price GBP/USD 1.2585 USD/INR 67.5363 EUR/USD 1.0729 USD/CNY 6.8840 CAD/USD 0.7603 USD/TRY 3.8700 AUD/USD 0.7551 USD/EGP 18.7247 0.7259 USD/ZAR 13.4737 115.1000 USD/RUB 59.8772 NZD/USD USD/JPY Commentary The USD started on a weak note on growing concerns that the multilateral trade regime will see sharp changes under President Trump, as he signed an executive order pulling the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. However, it recovered later in the week despite disappointing data on economic growth and jobless claims. The GBP declined post a strong rally last week, despite strong GDP data. The NZD strengthened after better than expected CPI data helped boost rate hike expectations. The AUD was boosted by weaker US GDP data. Source: Bloomberg Weekly Performance (%) AUD NZD JPY ZAR EUR CAD CNY INR RUB GBP TRY EGP YTD Performance (%) 2.8 2.5 2.2 1.9 AUD RUB NZD CAD JPY ZAR EUR CNY INR GBP EGP TRY (5.4) 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.0 (0.1) (0.9) (2.1) (5.0) (6.0) (5.0) Source: Bloomberg (4.0) (3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 4.1 3.3 2.8 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.2 0.8 (0.3) (1.3) (4.3) (6.0) (4.0) (2.0) 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 Source: Bloomberg DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this mat erials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4