GCC Daily Market Update - 19 November

Transcription

1. WEEKLY WRAP November 19 , 2017 ECONOMIC UPDATE & NEWS Actual Prior 3.10% 3.00% 3.00% Nov 88.0 88.8 87.0 2.40 2.30 UST 10yr Bond Nov 19.5 18.7 17.6 Italy CPI EU Harmonized YoY Oct F 1.10% 1.10% 1.10% Japan GDP SA QoQ 3Q P 0.40% 0.30% 0.60% 2.20 Japan Industrial Production MoM Sep F - (1.00%) (1.10%) 2.10 France CPI YoY Oct F 1.10% 1.10% 1.10% US CPI MoM Oct 0.10% 0.10% 0.50% Initial Jobless Claims Nov-11th 235k 249k 239k Canada CPI YoY Oct 1.40% 1.40% 1.60% Source: Bloomberg GLOBAL NEWS 13-Nov US 1.90 06-Nov 426.3b 30-Oct 426.4b 23-Oct 1.40% - 16-Oct 1.40% Nov-10th 09-Oct 1.40% Gold and Forex Reserve 02-Oct Oct F Russia 2.00 25-Sep Eurozone CPI YoY 2.27 21-Aug Germany ZEW Survey Expectations Survey Oct 18-Sep Germany ZEW Survey Curr. Situation Period 11-Sep CPI YoY 04-Sep Event UK 28-Aug Region Source: Bloomberg development over the coming 5 years. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia’s total employment rates for emigrants of aged 15 years and above rose by 0.2 percentage points over the quarter to 6.0% in Q2-17. (Source: GaStat) US CPI rose by 2.0% YoY in Oct-17, driven by rise in prices of Shelter by 2.7% YoY. (Source: Nasdaq)  Saudi Arabia’s King has introduced 21 infrastructure development projects worth SAR 7.0bn in the Madinah region. (Source: Saudi Gazette)  US monthly deficit rose 38.0% YoY to USD 63.2bn in Oct-17, driven by rise of 6.2% YoY in revenue and 11.6% YoY in spending. (Source: Forexlive)   Eurozone trade surplus rose by 19.0% MoM to a seasonally adjusted EUR 25.0bn in Sep-17. Exports rose by 1.1% MoM while imports fell by 1.2% MoM. (Source: Market Insider) Saudi Arabia’s central bank has suspended currency exchange house, Saleh Hussain al-Amoudi Sons Co, from conducting business for violations relating to suspected money laundering. (Source: Reuters)  Bahrain’s government has blacklisted four companies in the region for non-payment of wages. (Source: Gulf Daily)  Eurozone GDP grew 0.6% QoQ in Q3-17 as the Germany and Spain’s economies improved by 0.8% QoQ each. (Source: Market Insider)   UK CPI rose 3.0% YoY in Oct-17, driven by increase in cost of food. Core inflation grew 2.7% YoY during the same month. (Source: Market Insider) Bahrain is planning to set up an authority that will regulate the real estate sector and investigate complaints from homeowners in the kingdom. Its operations will start from Jan-18. (Source: Gulf News)   Japan’s GDP grew at a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.3% QoQ in Q3-17. Business spending rose 0.2%, while private consumption fell by 0.5%. Oman is allocating OMR 100.0mn in 2018 budget to aid citizens who are hit by cut in fuel subsidies. (Source: Bloomberg)  S&P downgraded Oman’s debt rating to BB from BB+, as the nation’s rising debt burden to finance large government and current-account deficits is eroding its traditional net asset positions. (Source: Bloomberg)  Oman’s Ministry of Oil and Gas has signed 4 exploration and production sharing agreements with energy companies to develop oil blocks in the nation. (Source: Trade Arabia)  US PPI rose 0.4% MoM in Oct-17, driven by rise in index for final demand services by 0.5% MoM. (Source: Nasdaq)  (Source: iii)  Japan’s PPI rose by 3.4% YoY in Oct-17. Export prices rose 9.7% YoY while import prices grew 15.3% YoY. (Source: Market Insider)  China's bank lending fell 47.8% YoY to CNY 663.2bn and broad M2 money supply rose 8.8% YoY in Oct-17. (Source: Market Insider)  Australia’s unemployment rate fell to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.4% in Oct-17 as compared to 5.5% in Sep-17. (Source: Market Insider)  Turkey’s current account deficit grew by 0.1% YoY to USD4.5 bn in Sep17, driven by a rise in primary income deficit by 15.5% YoY.(Source: AA)  Turkey’s unemployment rate fell to 10.6% in Q3-17 as compared to 11.3% in Q3-16. (Source: Nasdaq) QATAR NEWS  Gulf Times)  GCC NEWS  GCC has 361 active oil and gas projects with a combined value of USD 331.4bn in Nov-17, according to BNC report. (Source: Trade Arabia)  UAE military signed a deal worth AED 2.5bn with US missile maker, Raytheon Co, to buy GBU-10 and GBU-12 Paveway laser guided bomb kits. (Source: Zawya)  UAE would invest GBP 1.5bn in the UK’s renewable energy sector, UK’s Minister of State for Trade and Export Promotion at the Department for International Trade stated. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai International Financial Centre is developing a fund worth USD 100.0mn to invest in early-stage and growth start-ups in the financial technology sector, the governor of DIFC, Essa Kazim, said. (Source: Zawya)  Abu Dhabi’s state fund, Mubadala, is planning to invest an additional AED 82.5mn in Aerospace, Renewables & ICT platform in research and Qatar has experienced 82.0% MoM increase in building permits issued in Oct-17. Total building permits during the month stood at 858. (Source: Qatar CPI grew 0.2% YoY in Oct-17, driven by annual increase in prices of transport, food and beverages, health and education. (Source: The Peninsula)  The government has allocated QAR 2.5bn for 63 international and domestic companies selected for the ‘Own Your Own Factory in Qatar in 72 Hours’. (Source: Gulf Times)  Projects related to 2022 world cup are 65.0% completed, while the rest are expected to be completed by 2019 or 2020, HE the Minister of Finance Ali Sherif al-Emadi stated. (Source: Gulf Times)  S&P downgraded Ezdan Holdings long term corporate credit rating to BB from BBB- with a negative outlook. (Source: Bloomberg)  Qatar First Bank’s subsidiary Astro AD Cayman has sold its stake in UAE based investment firm, Amanat Holdings for AED 150mn. (Source: Zawya)  Qatar Petroleum has inked an agreement to acquire 30.0% participating interest in the contractors interest under the exploration and production sharing agreement for Block 52 offshore of Oman. (Source: The Peninsula) 1
2. WEEKLY WRAP November 19 , 2017 EQUITY Index Price S&P 500 DJIA WTD %Δ MTD %Δ YTD %Δ COMMENTARY Index Price WTD %Δ MTD %Δ YTD %Δ 2,578.9 (0.1) 0.1 15.2 MSCI EM 1,136.5 0.7 1.6 31.8 23,358.2 (0.3) (0.1) 18.2 S&P GCC 1,566.1 0.5 (3.4) (0.3) Nasdaq 6,314.5 0.1 1.1 29.8 Dow Jones Islamic 3,551.2 0.1 0.6 22.2 FTSE 100 7,380.7 (0.7) (1.5) 3.3 KSA (TASI) 6,913.5 (0.6) (0.3) (4.1) DAX 30 12,993.7 (1.0) (1.8) 13.2 UAE (DFM) 3,460.2 0.3 (4.8) (2.0) CAC 40 5,319.2 (1.1) (3.3) 9.4 UAE (ADX) 4,327.6 (1.1) (3.4) (4.8) 106,239.5 (2.5) (3.5) 36.0 Qatar (DSM) 7,825.8 (0.8) (4.2) (25.0) 9.8 BIST 100 Nikkei 22,396.8 (1.3) 1.7 17.2 Kuwait (KSE) 6,309.3 0.8 (3.1) Sh. Comp 3,382.9 (1.4) (0.3) 9.0 Bahrain (BAX) 1,269.9 0.2 (0.5) 4.1 Hang Seng 29,199.0 0.3 3.4 32.7 Oman (MSM) 5,105.7 1.0 1.9 (11.7) Sensex 33,342.8 0.1 0.4 25.2 Jordan (ASEGI) 2,093.8 0.5 0.0 (3.5) Source: Bloomberg GLOBAL INDICES Weekly Performance (%) MSCI EM Jordan (ASEGI) Hang Seng Nasdaq Sensex S&P 500 DJIA FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 Nikkei Sh. Comp BIST 100 YTD Performance (%) 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 (0.1) (0.3) (0.7) (1.0) (1.1) (1.3) (1.4) (2.5) (3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 36.0 32.7 31.8 29.8 25.2 BIST 100 Hang Seng MSCI EM Nasdaq Sensex DJIA Nikkei S&P 500 DAX 30 CAC 40 Sh. Comp FTSE 100 Jordan (ASEGI) (3.5) (10.0) 1.0 Source: Bloomberg 18.2 17.2 15.2 13.2 9.4 9.0 3.3 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 Source: Bloomberg GCC INDICES Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) Oman (MSM) 1.0 Kuwait (KSE) 0.1 KSA (TASI) Qatar (DSM) UAE (ADX) (0.3) UAE (DFM) 0.2 Dow Jones Islamic 4.1 S&P GCC 0.3 Bahrain (BAX) 9.8 Bahrain (BAX) 0.5 UAE (DFM) 22.2 Kuwait (KSE) 0.8 S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic (0.6) KSA (TASI) (4.1) UAE (ADX) (4.8) Oman (MSM) (0.8) (2.0) (11.7) Qatar (DSM) (25.0) (1.1) (1.5) (1.0) (0.5) 0.0 0.5 1.0 (30.0) (20.0) (10.0) 0.0 1.5 Source: Bloomberg 10.0 20.0 30.0 Global Global markets ended the week lower, as losses in Energy prices weighed on the broad market sentiments. In US, uncertainty about the future course of the US tax reforms weighed on investor sentiments, however a slew of positive data during the week limited the commodity driven losses. Retailing shares garnered much of the market attention, amid a batch of strong earnings data, with sector heavyweight Wal-Mart leading the gains. The Stoxx Europe 600 index dropped 1.2% during the last week, amidst a strengthening EUR and a batch of weak corporate earnings data. The Japanese benchmark declined 1.3%, on the back of a strong JPY. The Chinese benchmark inched lower, following the release of weak domestic retail sales, industrial production and liquidity data. The Indian benchmark rallied in the later part of the week, as Moody’s rating services upgraded the nation’s sovereign rating. GCC GCC markets traded mixed during the last week. The Saudi Arabian benchmark dropped 0.6%. However, buying support from state-linked funds limited the losses in the market. In Dubai, Drake & Scull International advanced 4.1%, after indicating that it would be able to secure the necessary funding requirement after restructuring its debt. Emaar Properties inched 0.8% higher, after reporting upbeat Q3-17 earnings data. In Kuwait, Al Mal Investment Co soared 17.6%, after Al Khair National revealed its plans to sell its stake in the company. Qatar The QE index continued its downward trajectory to end 0.8% lower. Increased selling pressure from Qatari retail investors led to the decline during the last week, however, net buying activity from foreign institutional investors limited the broad market losses. Trade turnover and volume declined during the week, with Banking, Industrial and Transportation shares together accounting for 74.1% of the total trading value. Out of the total listed 45 stocks, 44 exchanged hands, 31 declined, 12 advanced and 2 remained unchanged. Source: Bloomberg DSM INDEX 10,600 10,100 9,600 9,100 8,600 8,100 7,600 May-17 7,825.8 Jul-17 Index Aug-17 50 SMA 100 SMA Oct-17 200 SMA Indicator Price Last Close 7,825.8 MAVG 50 8,208.0 MAVG 100 8,688.1 MAVG 200 9,473.7 6 Month High 10,134.9 6 Month Low 7,761.3 RSI (14 Days) 30.1 Source: Bloomberg 2
3. WEEKLY WRAP November 19 , 2017 RATES & CREDIT US Treasury (%) Qatar Treasury (%) 3.50 5.00 3.00 2.50 2.00 2.34 2.23 2.06 1.72 4.00 3.03 3.00 2.36 2.16 1.50 3.40 3.14 2.11 3.66 4.58 3.86 3.54 3.15 2.00 1.80 2.10 1.00 0.50 4.47 2.78 1.00 1.07 0.00 0.00 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs 2 Yrs 30 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current Last Year Source: Bloomberg 10 Yrs Source: Bloomberg CDS Qatar Govt. Int. Bonds Maturity Price (USD) Z Spread (BPS) Yield (%) Global QGS 2018 100.0 37.4 US 28.3 0.0 0.0 (1.7) QGIB 2019 106.0 30.4 UK 25.6 1.9 0.5 (7.5) QGIB 2020 105.4 Qatari Diar 2020 98.0 5 Years CDS 30 Yrs Last Year Price (BPS) WTD Δ (BPS) MTD Δ (BPS) YTD Δ (BPS) WTD Δ (USD) YTD Δ (USD) 1.83 NA (0.4) 1.95 (0.1) (4.0) 76.9 2.57 (0.1) (2.7) 93.9 2.90 0.5 (0.0) Germany 11.6 (0.3) (1.7) (12.4) QGIB 2021 105.1 104.5 2.99 NA (2.2) France 19.0 (1.3) (2.8) (20.3) QGIB 2022 105.3 107.8 3.08 0.3 (1.9) Italy 124.8 4.2 (2.8) (37.5) QGS 2023 99.4 125.6 3.32 0.1 (2.9) Greece 476.5 (12.7) (47.2) (649.7) QGIB 2026 97.0 138.3 3.63 0.3 0.3 QGIB 2030 155.7 168.7 4.01 0.2 0.7 QGIB 2040 127.2 196.3 4.43 0.4 2.0 QGIB 2042 119.0 195.0 4.43 0.3 2.3 QGIB 2046 102.5 194.8 4.45 0.5 2.3 Russia 134.4 (6.4) 3.8 (99.6) Japan 33.5 (0.5) (1.1) 1.5 Turkey 208.7 (6.0) 22.1 (66.6) Brazil 179.4 (1.9) 5.9 (103.9) Egypt 362.4 (11.6) 9.1 (96.8) Abu Dhabi 70.1 1.7 9.0 5.6 Bahrain 284.6 (6.7) 37.1 (27.9) Dubai 142.2 1.0 12.4 Qatar 107.2 (0.7) Saudi Arabia 95.9 (10.5) Source: Bloomberg, QCB US Swap Rates GCC Tenor Price (%) Weekly Δ (BPS) YTD Δ (BPS) 3M LIBOR 1.436 0.023 0.438 6M LIBOR 1.632 0.017 0.314 (12.6) 12M LIBOR 1.901 0.019 0.215 4.2 21.9 2 years 1.889 0.032 0.432 12.6 7.5 5 years 2.118 (0.000) 0.141 10 years 2.339 (0.040) (0.000) 30 years 2.551 (0.065) (0.044) International Credit Spreads iTraxx Europe 51.7 (0.6) 1.2 (21.1) iTraxx Europe Crossover 244.7 2.0 17.6 (46.6) CDX North America IG 55.2 (1.0) 2.6 (12.6) CDX North America HY 326.8 (3.0) 17.3 (27.3) iTraxxSovX CEEMEA NA NA NA NA iTraxx Europe Senior Financial 16.8 (4.4) (1.0) (53.2) iTraxx Europe Sub Financial 22.0 (4.2) (0.6) (102.7) Source: Bloomberg Commentary US Treasury yields declined mid-week, after weaker-than-expected US inflation for Oct-17 weighed on the prospects of another interest rate hike. The yields however showed recovery in later half of the week following a batch of favorable economic data. UK gilt yields rose during the week after UK’s retail sales in Oct-17 beat market expectations. Yields on German bunds climbed during the week, on back of country’s upbeat Q3-17 GDP data. Additionally, ECB President Mario Draghi’s optimistic speech at Frankfurt further supported the yields. Source: Bloomberg 3
4. WEEKLY WRAP November 19 , 2017 COMMODITIES Commodities Price Commentary Brent (USD/bbl) 62.7 WTI Crude (USD/bbl) 56.6 Oil prices ended lower this week, after IEA raised doubts over the 2018 global demand outlook and unexpected rise in US crude stockpiles. The prices were however supported by comments from Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister that OPEC should announce an extension of output curbs during the 30th November meeting. Natural gas prices ended lower after EIA reported larger-than-expected rise in natural gas inventories. Copper prices fell on demand side concerns after the metals major consumer, China, reported downbeat industrial output. Gold prices gained over new developments regarding Russian interference in Donald Trump’s campaign and ongoing uncertainty over US tax reforms. Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) 3.1 Gold (USD/t oz.) 1,296.5 Silver (USD/t oz.) 17.4 Copper (USD/lb) 306.7 Source: Bloomberg Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) Silver Copper 3.0 Gold Copper (0.3) Brent WTI Crude (0.3) Silver Brent 22.4 Gold 1.8 12.6 10.4 8.7 WTI Crude (1.3) 5.3 Natural Gas (16.8) Natural Gas (3.6) (4.0) (2.0) 0.0 2.0 (20.0) 4.0 Source: Bloomberg (10.0) 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 Source: Bloomberg FX Currencies Price Currencies Price GBP/USD 1.3245 USD/INR 64.5150 EUR/USD 1.1820 USD/CNY 6.6268 CAD/USD 0.7833 USD/TRY 3.8760 AUD/USD 0.7564 USD/EGP 17.6380 NZD/USD 0.6809 USD/ZAR 13.9981 112.1000 USD/RUB 59.0265 USD/JPY Commentary USD ended lower against its major peers weighed by prevailing investors’ skepticism over the fate of US tax reforms. The currency was also pressured by fresh developments related to Russian interference in US President, Donald Trump’s campaign. CAD ended lower, weighed by subdued inflation readings. EUR strengthened against the greenback, on back of upbeat German GDP data for Q3-17. A broadly stronger Eurozone GDP furthermore benefitted the common currency. The JPY strengthened against the USD, as the Japanese industrial production came in higher than expectations. Source: Bloomberg Weekly Performance (%) ZAR JPY EUR INR RUB CNY EGP GBP TRY CAD AUD NZD (3.0) Source: Bloomberg YTD Performance (%) EUR GBP CAD CNY AUD INR JPY RUB EGP ZAR NZD TRY 2.9 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 (0.3) (0.6) (1.3) (1.8) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 12.1 7.1 5.3 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.2 2.7 (1.7) (1.8) (9.2) (15.0) (10.0) (5.0) 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 Source: Bloomberg DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4