GCC Daily Market Update - 23 April

Transcription

1. WEEKLY WRAP April 23 , 2017 ECONOMIC UPDATE & NEWS (0.10%) 1215k 1303k Mar F Eurozone CPI YoY 2.55 1.50% 1.50% 2.00% 2.45 US MBA Mortgage Applications Apr-14th - (1.80%) 1.50% 2.35 US Initial Jobless Claims Apr-15th 240k 244k 234k Russia Gold and Forex Reserve Apr-14th - 398.4b 395.7b 2.25 Japan Tertiary Indust Index MoM France Markit France Manuf PMI Canada CPI YoY US Markit US Manuf PMI 0.30% 0.20% (0.20%) 53.1 55.1 53.3 Apr P 56 56.8 56.2 Mar 1.80% 1.60% 2.00% Apr P 53.8 52.8 53.3 Source: Bloomberg GLOBAL NEWS  IMF has raised its 2017 global growth forecast to 3.5%, up from 3.4% anticipated in Jan-17, due to manufacturing and trade gains in Europe, Japan and China. (Source: Reuters) 2.05 23-Jan Eurozone Markit Eurozone Manu PMI Feb Apr P 2.18 2.15 17-Apr (0.40%) 1250k 10-Apr - Mar 03-Apr Mar Housing Starts 27-Mar CPI YoY US 20-Mar KSA UST 10yr Bond 13-Mar (2.70%) 06-Mar Prior 0.80% 27-Feb Actual 1.10% 20-Feb Survey Mar 13-Feb Period Industrial Production YoY 06-Feb Event Russia 30-Jan Region Source: Bloomberg  Saudi Arabia’s government estimates an increase of SAR 8.0bn to SAR 10.0bn annually in its tax revenues from the new tax on tobacco and sugary drinks, General Authority of Zakat and Tax said. (Source: Reuters)  Saudi Arabia and Oman will jointly lead the GCC in investments for cultural tourism, according to Colliers International. (Source: Zawya)  US economy expanded at a modest-to-moderate pace between midFeb-17 and the end of Mar-17, while inflation pressures remained in check, the Fed said. (Source: Reuters)  Saudi Arabia will develop 30 solar and wind projects over the next 10 years as part of its USD 50.0bn program to boost power generation and cut its oil consumption. (Source: Gulf Times)  UK PM called on for a snap general election on 8th Jun-17 to bolster support for her Brexit plan. (Source: Reuters)   ECB’s three rate setters said that the prospects for Eurozone economy have improved but the time to withdraw support has not yet come, as French presidential election looms. (Source: Reuters) Saudi Arabia’s oil exports fell to 6.95mn bpd in Feb-17 from 7.7mn bpd in Jan-17, as local refineries took advantage of more abundant supplies and processed a record amount of crude. (Source: Gulf Base)  Saudi Arabia will lead the privatization and consolidation drive in GCC petrochemical industry, according to Secretary-General of the Gulf Petrochemicals and Chemicals Association. (Source: Zawya)  Oman’s lending growth increased by 5.1% YoY in Feb-17 as compared to 6.2% in Jan-17, the slowest since Sep-09. (Source: Reuters)  Bahrain private sector lending shrinks in Jan-17 by 1.5% YoY to BHD 72.8mn as compared to BHD 81.8mn in Dec-16. (Source: Reuters)  Eurozone inflation in Mar-17 slowed down to 1.5% YoY from a four year high of 2.0% recorded in Feb-17. (Source: Reuters)  IMF will not take part in a bailout program for Greece if it deems the country's debt is unsustainable, said the Fund’s chief Christine Lagarde. (Source: Reuters)  The IMF upgraded its estimate for China's 2017 growth to 6.6% from 6.5%, citing expectations of continued policy support. (Source: Reuters)  China cabinet says that it will simplify the VAT rate system and cut VAT for agricultural products and natural gas to 11.0% from 13.0%, effective from 1st Jul-17. (Source: Reuters)  Japan posted a merchandise trade surplus of JPY 614.7bn in Mar-17, down 17.5% YoY. (Source: Reuters)   Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has narrowly won a referendum to expand presidential powers, which could keep him in office until 2029. (Source: BBC) The Turkish government ran a budget deficit of TRY 19.5bn in Mar-17, and TRY 14.9bn in Q1-17. (Source: Anadolu Agency) GCC NEWS QATAR NEWS  The IMF kept Qatar’s GDP growth forecast unchanged at 3.4% for 2017, compared with 2.7% in 2016. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar’s lifting of 12-year self-imposed moratorium on gas development is a major growth driver, according to Moody’s. (Source: Gulf Times)  The Phillipine President has assured that the government that he will honor USD 206mn worth of committed investments from Qatar. (Source: Gulf Times)  QCB sold QAR 5.575bn of domestic bonds, with issuance heavily focused on the long end of the yield curve. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar and Turkey trade reached USD 700.0mn in 2016 and is expected to grow 10-15 % in 2017. Ambassador of Turkey to Qatar said. (Source: The Peninsula Qatar)  GCC Islamic banks have built sufficient capital buffers to weather the sluggish operating environment, according to S&P. (Source: Gulf Times)   Total margin trading facilities provided by brokerages in UAE amounted to AED 36.5bn in Q1-17, up 46.0% YoY. (Source: Trade Arabia) Commercial Bank Group reported a decline in net profits by 66.7% YoY to QAR 91.2mn in Q1-17. (Source: Gulf Times)   Saudi Arabia's government is ordering its ministries and agencies to review billions of dollars' worth of unfinished infrastructure and economic development projects, government sources said. (Source: Qatar paid Tunisia the USD 1.0bn aid pledged by the former during last November. (Source: Nasdaq)  QSE and the QFMA are giving final touches to rules governing market makers. The rules will be announced in H1-17. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatari businesses investing in Uganda in any sector will get a 10-year tax holiday, said Uganda's Finance Minister Kasaija Matia. (Source: Qatar Reuters)  Saudi Arabia raised USD 9.0bn in its first dollar-denominated Islamic bond sale, USD 1.0bn more than what the government was said to be planning to issue initially. (Source: Bloomberg) Tribune) 1
2. WEEKLY WRAP April 23 , 2017 EQUITY Index Price S&P 500 DJIA WTD %Δ MTD %Δ YTD %Δ COMMENTARY Index Price WTD %Δ 2,348.7 0.8 (0.6) 4.9 MSCI EM 961.8 0.1 MTD %Δ YTD %Δ 0.4 11.5 20,547.8 0.5 (0.6) 4.0 S&P GCC 1,643.9 (1.1) 0.2 4.6 Nasdaq 5,442.0 1.7 0.1 11.9 Dow Jones Islamic 3,123.3 0.7 (0.0) 7.5 FTSE 100 7,114.6 (2.9) (2.8) (0.4) KSA (TASI) 6,899.0 (2.5) (1.5) (4.3) DAX 30 12,048.6 (0.5) (2.1) 4.9 UAE (DFM) 3,469.8 (1.1) (0.3) (1.7) CAC 40 5,059.2 (0.2) (1.2) 4.0 UAE (ADX) 4,521.6 0.1 1.8 (0.5) BIST 100 92,423.9 2.6 3.9 18.3 Qatar (DSM) 10,241.6 (2.0) (1.4) (1.9) Nikkei 18.5 18,620.8 1.6 (1.5) (2.6) Kuwait (KSE) 6,813.5 (2.8) (3.1) Sh. Comp 3,173.2 (2.2) (1.5) 2.2 Bahrain (BAX) 1,334.4 (1.6) (1.6) 9.3 Hang Seng 24,042.0 (0.9) (0.3) 9.3 Oman (MSM) 5,474.4 (1.7) (1.4) (5.3) Sensex 29,365.3 (0.3) (0.9) 10.3 Jordan (ASEGI) 2,219.1 (0.4) (1.4) 2.2 Source: Bloomberg GLOBAL INDICES Weekly Performance (%) BIST 100 Nasdaq Nikkei S&P 500 DJIA MSCI EM CAC 40 Sensex Jordan (ASEGI) DAX 30 Hang Seng Sh. Comp FTSE 100 YTD Performance (%) 2.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 (0.2) (0.3) (0.4) (0.5) (0.9) (2.2) (2.9) (4.0) (2.0) 0.0 2.0 18.3 BIST 100 Nasdaq MSCI EM Sensex Hang Seng DAX 30 S&P 500 CAC 40 DJIA Jordan (ASEGI) Sh. Comp FTSE 100 (0.4) Nikkei (2.6) 1.7 1.6 (5.0) 4.0 Source: Bloomberg 11.9 11.5 10.3 9.3 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 Source: Bloomberg GCC INDICES Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) Dow Jones Islamic 0.7 UAE (ADX) Kuwait (KSE) UAE (DFM) (1.1) Dow Jones Islamic S&P GCC (1.1) S&P GCC Bahrain (BAX) KSA (TASI) (0.5) (1.7) Qatar (DSM) (2.0) KSA (TASI) (2.5) (1.9) (4.3) Oman (MSM) (5.3) Kuwait (KSE) (2.8) (3.0) 7.5 4.6 UAE (DFM) (1.7) Qatar (DSM) 9.3 UAE (ADX) (1.6) Oman (MSM) 18.5 Bahrain (BAX) 0.1 (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 (10.0) (5.0) 1.0 Source: Bloomberg 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 US stocks closed in green supported by encouraging earnings reports from banks and industrial companies. The broader indices further benefitted from assurances from US Treasury over the progress in tax reforms plan. Gains in narrowly focused DJIA were however capped due to earningsrelated declines in Goldman Sachs and IBM. The concerns raised by Fed Beige book on corporate profitability due to wage growth, further limited gains. Most European indices closed in red, with the broad based Stoxx 600 down 0.6% this week. Energy stocks weighed on index as Brent posted sharp declines. Export oriented FTSE underperformed its peer indices as GBP posted strong gains on news of snap elections. Disappointing UK retail sales also weighed on investor’s sentiments. In Asia, Japan’s index benefitted from strong export numbers and strength in Tankan sentiment index for manufacturers. GCC Most of the gulf indices fell this week, tracking a plunge a Brent prices. Dubai benchmark index fell 1.1% weighed by the fall in Investments and Banking stocks with Dubai Investments being the biggest laggard. Saudi Arabia’s main index fell 2.5% weighed by the fall in Materials sector, which slipped by 2.7%. News on indefinite shelving of some projects as a cost saving measure, also hit sentiments. Bahrain index was down 1.6% as Bank stocks weighed on the index, with Ithmaar Holdings leading decliners. 4.9 4.9 4.0 4.0 2.2 2.2 0.0 Global 20.0 Qatar The QE Index fell by 2% this week as foreign and domestic institutions booked profit, amidst falling oil prices. High selling pressure was seen in Transport and Industrials counters. Local retail investors turned bullish and there was lower net selling by their non-Qatari counterparts this week. Overall trade turnover declined amidst higher volumes, with Telecom, Banking and Real Estate sectors together accounting for about 89% of the volumes. More than 70% of the traded stocks were in the red, with major losers for the week being GIS, Commercial Bank and QIMC. Source: Bloomberg DSM INDEX Indicator Price Last Close 10,241.6 MAVG 50 10,535.5 10,500 MAVG 100 10,509.8 10,000 MAVG 200 10,479.9 6 Month High 11,057.8 6 Month Low 9,636.4 RSI (14 Days) 35.3 11,000 10,241.6 9,500 Oct-16 Dec-16 Index Jan-17 50 SMA 100 SMA Mar-17 200 SMA Source: Bloomberg 2
3. WEEKLY WRAP April 23 , 2017 RATES & CREDIT US Treasury (%) Qatar Treasury (%) 3.50 5.00 2.90 3.00 2.50 1.18 3.17 2.90 2.62 3.00 2.00 1.36 1.00 0.82 4.16 3.14 1.84 1.89 1.67 1.00 0.50 2.71 1.77 2.00 1.50 2.25 2.06 4.28 4.00 2.28 2.47 5 Yrs 7 Yrs 1.32 0.00 0.00 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs 2 Yrs 30 Yrs Current Last Year Source: Bloomberg 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg CDS 5 Years CDS 10 Yrs Last Year Qatar Govt. Int. Bonds Price (BPS) WTD Δ (BPS) MTD Δ (BPS) YTD Δ (BPS) Global Maturity Price (USD) Z Spread (BPS) Yield (%) WTD Δ (USD) YTD Δ (USD) QGS 2018 100.3 40.8 QGIB 2019 109.0 32.1 1.72 NA (0.2) 1.69 (0.1) (1.0) QGIB 2020 108.0 58.5 2.14 0.1 (0.1) Qatari Diar 2020 QGIB 2021 99.6 66.4 2.42 0.2 1.5 108.1 67.3 2.29 0.1 0.6 US 26.2 1.2 0.7 (0.6) UK 28.3 0.2 (0.7) (2.8) Germany 17.7 (1.0) 0.5 (4.1) France 55.6 1.9 5.3 18.6 QGIB 2022 108.3 75.7 2.57 0.2 1.1 Italy 186.0 (3.9) 15.9 28.8 QGS 2023 102.7 76.6 2.64 (0.1) 0.5 Greece 916.0 6.6 1.2 (131.5) QGIB 2026 100.6 100.7 3.15 0.3 3.9 QGIB 2030 161.1 154.3 3.75 0.5 6.2 QGIB 2040 131.0 186.2 4.23 1.1 5.8 QGIB 2042 122.1 188.4 4.27 0.6 5.2 QGIB 2046 105.8 184.9 4.26 0.6 5.4 Russia 163.2 (4.4) (3.5) (68.2) Japan 26.1 (0.4) 1.0 (3.9) Turkey 231.0 (3.0) (8.2) (42.1) Brazil 224.0 (1.4) (2.4) (56.7) Source: Bloomberg, QCB Egypt 346.7 (9.7) 2.9 (105.6) US Swap Rates Abu Dhabi 38.1 (1.9) (2.8) (23.3) Bahrain 224.3 (1.1) 3.4 (78.2) Dubai 109.9 (3.5) (4.6) Qatar 58.1 (2.3) (4.3) GCC Saudi Arabia Tenor 90.1 (2.5) (9.4) Price (%) Weekly Δ (BPS) YTD Δ (BPS) 3M LIBOR 1.153 (0.005) 0.155 6M LIBOR 1.394 (0.009) 0.076 (39.9) 12M LIBOR 1.739 (0.033) 0.054 (22.2) 2 years 1.532 (0.002) 0.076 5 years 1.901 0.014 (0.076) 10 years 2.215 0.006 (0.124) 30 years 2.463 (0.025) (0.132) (23.3) International Credit Spreads iTraxx Europe 74.4 (2.7) (0.0) 1.7 iTraxx Europe Crossover 290.7 (4.5) (1.0) (0.6) Commentary CDX North America IG 67.3 (0.1) 0.5 (0.4) CDX North America HY 345.9 2.0 8.8 (8.2) iTraxxSovX CEEMEA NA NA NA NA iTraxx Europe Senior Financial 57.1 (2.6) 1.9 (12.9) iTraxx Europe Sub Financial 80.0 (8.7) (1.8) (44.7) US treasury yields rose as US President Donald Trump’s promise to unveil a tax plan next week eased concerns that Trump’s fiscal agenda is floundering. Hawkish statements from some Fed officials further supported the rise in yields. The rise in yields halted mid-week after Fed’s Beige book raised some concerns on economic growth and inflation. An increase in jobless claims and weak manufacturing output data further weighed on the yields. French government bonds sold off slightly during the week as business activity in France grew at its fastest pace in almost six years, according to IHS Markit’s purchasing managers’ index. Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg 3
4. WEEKLY WRAP April 23 , 2017 COMMODITIES Commodities Price Commentary Brent (USD/bbl) 52.0 WTI Crude (USD/bbl) 49.6 Oil prices reported its first weekly loss in more than a month as supply concerns continue to grapple the market as data showed a surprising build in US gasoline inventories and a rise in domestic crude output. Addition of new oil rigs (5 oil rigs), further fueled concerns. Comments by OPEC members over rollover of production cuts did little to contain the plunge. Copper price fell as China's refined production surged in March-17, underlining ample stocks in the world's biggest metals consumer. Natural gas price fell on a higher than expected US gas stockpiles. Gold prices rose 5.2% as tensions surrounding North Korea and the upcoming French presidential election enhanced its appeal as a safe haven. Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) 3.1 Gold (USD/t oz.) 1,287.4 Silver (USD/t oz.) 17.9 Copper (USD/lb) 253.8 Source: Bloomberg Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) Gold Gold Silver Copper WTI Crude Brent Natural Gas (16.7) 0.1 Copper (1.3) Silver (3.5) Natural Gas (3.9) WTI Crude (6.7) Brent (7.0) (8.0) (6.0) (4.0) (2.0) 0.0 (20.0) 2.0 Source: Bloomberg 11.8 11.7 1.3 (7.6) (8.6) (15.0) (10.0) (5.0) 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 Source: Bloomberg FX Currencies Price Currencies Price GBP/USD 1.2847 USD/INR 64.1125 EUR/USD 1.0758 USD/CNY 6.8859 CAD/USD 0.7408 USD/TRY 3.6401 AUD/USD 0.7541 USD/EGP 18.0936 0.7022 USD/ZAR 13.1166 109.0900 USD/RUB 56.6677 NZD/USD USD/JPY Commentary USD started on a weaker note amidst rising geopolitical tensions and a not so favorable US economic outlook painted by Fed Beige book. The trend however reversed after hawkish comments from some Fed officials and US President’s pledge to unveil massive tax plan next week. CAD was pressured by lower than expected domestic inflation and plunge in oil prices. GBP rose on news of snap elections in UK, which would supposedly empower the PM to bolster support for her Brexit plan. Disappointing UK retail sales further weighed on currency. TRY led advancers after the Turkish President won the referendum, which granted him sweeping powers. Source: Bloomberg Weekly Performance (%) TRY GBP ZAR EUR EGP NZD CNY INR RUB JPY AUD CAD YTD Performance (%) RUB JPY INR ZAR AUD GBP EUR NZD CNY EGP CAD TRY (3.2) 2.8 2.3 2.3 1.0 0.5 0.3 (0.2) (0.2) (0.3) (0.5) (0.5) (1.3) (2.0) Source: Bloomberg (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 (4.0) 9.0 7.2 5.2 4.7 4.6 3.9 2.0 1.3 0.9 0.2 (0.4) (2.0) 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 Source: Bloomberg DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4