GCC Daily Market Update - 22 March

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 22 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,344.0 20,668.0 5,332.5 7,378.3 11,962.1 5,002.4 90,606.5 19,455.9 24,593.1 3,261.6 29,485.5 (29.5) (237.9) (80.8) (51.5) (90.8) (9.7) (295.7) (65.7) 91.1 10.8 (33.3) (1.2) (1.1) (1.5) (0.7) (0.8) (0.2) (0.3) (0.3) 0.4 0.3 (0.1) (0.8) (0.7) 0.0 1.6 1.1 3.0 3.6 1.8 3.6 0.6 2.6 4.7 4.6 9.6 3.3 4.2 2.9 16.0 1.8 11.8 5.1 10.7 10,485.5 6,912.8 4,512.8 3,494.9 6,881.2 5,629.9 1,365.8 1,653.6 3,110.3 78.7 (6.5) 55.1 17.4 12.4 (40.8) (8.5) 4.9 (21.7) 0.8 (0.1) 1.2 0.5 0.2 (0.7) (0.6) 0.3 (0.7) (2.0) (0.9) (0.9) (3.7) 1.4 (2.6) 1.2 0.4 0.9 0.5 (4.1) (0.7) (1.0) 19.7 (2.6) 11.9 6.1 6.8 51.0 47.3 3.1 1,246.5 261.0 (0.7) (0.9) 0.1 12.5 (4.6) (1.3) (1.8) 1.7 1.0 (1.7) (8.5) (11.0) 11.0 (0.6) (4.5) (10.5) (10.5) (17.3) 8.2 3.1 Source: Bloomberg Global Most of the global indices ended in red on Tuesday. US equities were down with S&P and DJIA posting their biggest one-day loss as investors feared that failure to pass the proposed healthcare bill could imperil tax and spending reforms, which spurred sell-off. Banking stocks plunged as bond yields continued its downward trajectory. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.5% with commodity producers being the biggest drag, tracking losses in steel and copper prices. Investor sentiments however got some boost as French election TV debate portrayed centrist Emmanuel Macron to be more convincing candidate than right-wing and anti-euro candidate Marine Le Pen. European Healthcare stocks declined with concerns related to US healthcare reforms. In Asia, Nikkei fell 0.3% mainly due to stronger yen. Chinese indices however bucked the broader trend, bolstered by signs of steady inflows from Chinese investors and signs of global recovery. GCC Most Gulf indices rose on Tuesday amidst a thin trading volume. Abu Dhabi’s benchmark ended 1.2% higher on the back of gains in the Banking sectors with NBAD up 1.9%. Aldar Properties rose 1.3% after its Chairman announced plans targeting to increase its operating income to AED 2.2bn in 2020 from the current AED 1.6bn. Saudi Arabia’s index ended in red dragged down by Insurance stocks as increased industry competition raised expectation of consolidation. Saudi Indian Company for Cooperative Insurance slumped 8.7% after its board proposed capital reduction. Qatar QE index climbed 0.8% with most shares advancing on the back of passive funds inflow in the lead up to their upgrade in FTSE Russell's secondary market index. Foreign institutions turned net buyers for the day. The index witnessed bullish bets particularly in Telecom and Industrial. Banking stocks were also among the gainers with Masraf Al Rayan and the Commercial Bank up 2.4% and 3.9%, respectively. Out of 44 stocks listed, 42 exchanged hands of which 27 rose, 10 fell and 5 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 15.2 1.6 3.7 136.8 DSM 20 15.5 1.6 3.7 122.3 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.1 1.6 3.5 777.2 UAE (ADX) 12.9 1.4 5.3 49.4 UAE (DFM) 14.9 1.2 3.9 62.3 GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Kuwait (KSE) 22.9 1.3 3.4 109.9 Oman (MSM) 11.0 1.1 5.2 23.3 Bahrain (BAX) 8.9 0.8 4.7 3.7 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar Cin & Film Distrib Qatar Industrial Manuf Doha Insurance Co Commercial Bank Qsc Mazaya Qatar Real Est Top Losers Qatar & Oman Invest Medicare Group Al Ahli Bank Widam Food Co Al Khaleej Takaful Grp Close Price 29.5 46.4 17.0 33.7 13.8 2.7 3.7 0.7 1.3 0.5 9.9 8.7 4.4 3.9 3.5 7.3 4.3 (6.5) 3.5 (4.1) 7.7 19.0 (12.5) (23.8) 1.7 0.3 13.2 2.2 401.7 263.1 43.3 11.4 11.8 40.9 20.4 9.8 101.5 33.1 64.2 19.3 (0.1) (0.8) (0.3) (0.4) (0.1) (1.0) (0.8) (0.8) (0.6) (0.5) (1.5) 61.4 (11.0) (5.6) (8.5) (18.3) (12.5) (23.6) 13.8 (25.0) 18.4 99.9 2.1 21.1 1.0 23.1 43.9 10.5 NA 37.5 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 60.0 11,000 10,485.5 10,500 20.0 10,000 9,500 26/Dec 40.0 9/Jan 23/Jan 6/Feb Index Volume (mn) 20/Feb 6/Mar 0.0 20/Mar Index Value Source: Bloomberg QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Closing Level 3,020.7 6,441.8 3,378.6 4,364.7 2,343.9 1,233.9 2,350.6 1D Change (%) 0.8 (0.0) 0.7 0.1 0.5 2.0 0.3 Buy (%) 29.1 12.6 41.7 6.7 51.6 58.3 Sell (%) 29.8 35.1 64.9 8.0 27.1 35.1 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 22 , 2017 Chemicals Association. The Kingdom outpaced regional growth of 3.7% across the GCC during the period. (Source: Saudi Gazette) GLOBAL NEWS  The US current account deficit unexpectedly fell in the Q4-16 representing 2.4% of gross domestic product, down from 2.5% in Q316. The drop is due to rising domestic oil production and lower global oil prices, which helped curb the import bill. (Source: Reuters)  UK’s consumer prices jumped by a stronger than expected 2.3% in annual terms, boosted by the Brexit induced weakness in GBP. (Source:  Haramain high-speed rail project of KSA will begin operations in early 2018, it will be 450km long train with capacity of 9,000 passengers per hour and will connect from Makkah to Madinah. (Source:Argaam)  Saudi Arabia plans to tighten restrictions on foreign workers to pressure companies into hiring more Saudi citizens and reduce unemployment among Saudis, government sources said. (Source: Gulf BBC news)  UK government borrowings, excluding state-owned banks, fell to its lowest amount for February-17 in 10 years. Borrowings stood at GBP1.8bn, down from GBP 4.6bn a year earlier. (Source: BBC news)  Japan’s annual export grew by 11.3% followed a 1.3% gain in January, marking the biggest gain since January 2015. Demand for auto parts from China and for electronics components from Hong Kong contributed to export growth for the month (Source: Reuters) News)  Saudi Arabia is considering plans to allow foreigners to become selfemployed in return for paying taxes. Under the plans, foreigners would not need a sponsor after obtaining a license for professions, which include workshops, catering and contracting. (Source: Albawaba)  The total operating income of Alkhabeer Capital, an asset manager of KSA, grew by 16% YoY to SAR 207mn in 2016 while net income grew 6.0% YoY to SAR 71mn in 2016. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said the country will further open its services, manufacturing and mining sectors to the outside world.(Source: Reuters)  Oman Shipping Company, the wholly owned government company has agreed to partner with local players to improve competitiveness of Omani mineral commodities in export market. (Source: Oman Observer)  The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said that China's economic growth is likely to slow to 6.5% this year and cool further to 6.3% in 2018. The organization also warned of China's ballooning corporate debt in its bi-annual economic outlook .(Source:  Oman Oil Company owned Oxea, a global manufacturer of Oxo intermediates and Oxo derivatives, announced the construction of a major propanol unit connecting its existing unit in Texas, USA. (Source: Reuters)   Preliminary figures showed that Spain's foreign trade gap widened to EUR 3.1bn in January from EUR 2.4bn in the corresponding month last year.(Source: RTT news) Oman Observer) Oman is planning to impose taxes on harmful products like tobacco, alcohol, pork products, soft drinks and energy drinks. (Source: Times of Oman)  Bahrain inflation rate dropped by 0.4% YoY due to a 4.2% decline in food prices and non-alcoholic beverages (accounting 16% of the index). (Source: Arabian Business) GCC NEWS  The value of ongoing urban construction projects in the GCC are estimated at USD 1,097.6bn, according to the Middle East Stone and BNC report. (Source: Arabian Business)  Alba, Bahrain-based international aluminum smelter, declared cash dividend of BHD 29.6mn (USD 80mn) in its AGM for the fiscal year 2016. (Source: Trade Arabia)  UAE, KSA, Qatar and Kuwait are among the 10 targeted companies to ban carrying electronic devices greater than the size of smart phone or cell phone in airline’s cabin, confirmed by senior US Official. (Source:  Kuwait’s real estate investment in Dubai has rose to AED 2bn (USD 544.6mn) with 770 Kuwaiti investors in the sector, according to data by the Dubai Land Department. (Source: Mubasher) Arabian Business)  The chairman of the Dubai Airport Free zone Authority announced its five year strategic plan which aims at attracting FDI and maximizing profit through trade diversification, joint ventures, the provision of new commercial products and services. (Source: Zawya)  Dubai based Nakheel has floated tenders for the piling works amounted to AED 900mn (USD 245mn), hotels and resorts project being developed with Spanish hospitality group RIU at Deira Islands in Dubai. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Abu Dhabi based Emirates Global Aluminum, which is one of the world’s top five producers, has invited banks to pitch for a role in its planned IPO, which will be listed on either TASI or ADX. The size of the offering is yet to be disclosed. (Source: Arabian Business)   Abu Dhabi based developer Aldar Property announced that it would invest AED 1.9bn (USD 517mn) in recurring revenue assets on its Yas and Reem Island projects in the UAE capital. (Source: Trade Arabia). Abu Dhabi based Arkan, a building materials industrial conglomerate, announced its decision to shut down its cement plant, Emirates Cement Factory (ECF) in Abu Dhabi, as part of its regional strategy. (Source: Trade Arabia)   Saudi Arabia has cut crude oil exports by 3.8% MoM to 7.7mbpd in January-17 in accordance with the deal the country negotiated between members of the OPEC. (Source: Oil Price) Saudi Arabia led the GCC petrochemical industrial growth in 2016, expanding by 5.8% YoY, according to Gulf Petrochemicals and QATAR NEWS  The assets of Commercial banks operating in Qatar increased 0.2% MoM to QAR 1,264.4bn in February-17. Credit facilities rose by 1.6% MoM to QAR 868bn during the month. (Source: Qatar Central Bank)  Emir H H Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani issued Emiri Decree No. 17 of 2017 ratifying an agreement between Qatar and the Republic of Kazakhstan on the avoidance of double taxation and the prevention of financial evasion in respect of income taxes and the attached Protocol signed in Astana in 2014. (Source: The Peninsula)  Real estate transaction in Qatar during the period from 12th to 16th March were worth QAR 428,730,882. The majority of the trading took place in Um Salal, Al Khor and Al Thukhaira, Doha, Al Rayan, Al Shamal, Al Da'ayen and Al Wakra. (Source: QNA)  Capital Intelligence affirmed Qatar National Bank’s long and shortterm foreign currency ratings (FCR) at ‘AA-’ and ‘A1+’ respectively, at the same level as the sovereign ratings for Qatar. The outlook on the long-term FCR is restored to ‘stable’ from ‘negative’. (Source: Gulf Times)  Real estate developer Ezdan Holding will meet fixed income investors in Hong Kong ahead of a potential US dollar-denominated sukuk issue. (Source: Reuters)  Qatar General Insurance and Reinsurance company’s chairman said that the company would see an increased demand for insurance on large infrastructure projects as the slowdown in infrastructure expansion is expected to mitigate by the end of 2017.(Source: Qatar Tribune) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 22 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0841 USD/QAR 3.6412 111.7100 EUR/QAR 3.9474 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2508 JPY/QAR 0.0326 USD/CHF 0.9939 GBP/QAR 4.5544 USD/CAD 1.3352 CHF/QAR 3.6635 AUD/USD 0.7691 CAD/QAR 2.7271 NZD/USD 0.7042 AUD/QAR 2.8004 USD/INR 64.7800 INR/QAR 0.0562 USD/TRY 3.6336 TRY/QAR 1.0021 USD/ZAR 12.6812 ZAR/QAR 0.2871 USD/BRL 3.0879 BRL/QAR 1.1792 FX Commentary US Dollar closed lower against the basket of major currencies on Tuesday with dollar index down 0.7% due to investors’ concerns over last week’s Fed statement and growing doubts about how quickly the Trump Administration can implement the pro-growth policies. CAD strengthened against the US counterpart to hit a three-week high, with release of stronger than expected retail sales data, however, pared gains as lower oil prices weighed on the currency. EUR rose to six-week high against the greenback post strong performance by centrist Emmanuel Macron in French presidential debate indicating his victory against Marine Le Pen. GBP gained after data showed British inflation in February rose above the BoE’s 2% target for the first time since the end of 2013, boosting chances for a rate hike. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.93 0.95 0.98 1.16 1.82 (0.43) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.11) 1.42 1.51 1.72 1.97 2.67 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.12 1.32 1.74 2.21 2.0% EIBOR 0.67 0.85 0.99 1.43 2.05 BMIBOR 0.83 1.03 1.50 1.85 2.53 NA NA 1.31 1.56 2.13 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 2.03% 1.26% 2.87% 3.15% 3.44% 1.94% 2.23% 2.41% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 4.54% 3.03% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 24.9 (0.6) Turkey 232.9 UK 29.9 (4.1) Brazil 236.8 (30.4) Germany 19.1 2.1 Egypt 338.5 (144.2) 2.0% 2.37% 2.21% 2.05% 2.64% 1.62% 2.22% 1.0% 1.79% 1.56% 1.36% 0.98% 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change (11.7) 59.0 30.9 Abu Dhabi 40.9 (26.0) 190.4 52.8 Bahrain 227.9 (157.1) Greece 946.05 (72.6) Dubai 117.2 (28.8) Russia 174.3 (34.0) Qatar 64.5 (22.5) Japan 25.9 (8.0) Saudi Arabia 95.6 (52.4) Italy 0.0% 2 Yrs France Spreads 6M Change Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 09:00 Japan Nationwide Dept Sales YoY Feb -- (1.20%) 09:00 Japan Tokyo Dept Store Sales YoY Feb -- (1.50%) 12:00 Eurozone Current Account NSA Jan -- 47.0b 12:00 Eurozone ECB Current Account SA Jan -- 31.0b 12:30 Italy Current Account Balance Jan -- 5535m 14:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Mar-17th -- 3.10% 16:00 Russia CPI WoW Mar-20th -- 0.10% Mar-20th -- 0.90% 16:00 Russia CPI Weekly YTD 16:00 US FHFA House Price Index MoM Jan 0.40% 0.40% 17:00 US Existing Home Sales Feb 5.55m 5.69m 17:00 US Existing Home Sales MoM Feb (2.50%) 3.30% 09:00 Japan Nationwide Dept Sales YoY Feb -- (1.20%) Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Kuwait Foundry Co Sak NA NA NA (4.4) 586.5 (2,688.4) Kuwait Investment Co NA NA NA 2.0 (613.0) (2,894.9) Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 22 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Mannai Corp. Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 2.9 0.0 0.0 9.6 1.5 5.2 4.7 2.8 0.0 4.6 5.9 2.2 5.1 3.1 3.0 4.8 5.3 3.4 4.7 N/A (‫)غ‬ 7.6 5.5 5.3 4.8 4.1 3.6 3.5 4.1 3.4 1.5 6.5 4.5 3.6 3.1 3.5 1.8 3.4 5.2 2.3 7.1 3.2 0.0 6.4 4.3 3.3 0.0 2.7 3.1 4.6 4.6 4.4 3.4 P/B Ratio (x) 1.4 0.9 2.6 0.9 2.6 0.9 2.5 0.9 1.0 1.7 1.8 2.3 1.0 1.8 2.8 1.5 2.4 1.4 1.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 0.7 3.8 0.8 1.8 1.2 1.4 2.1 1.3 2.9 3.2 1.4 1.7 1.9 0.9 0.8 2.4 0.6 3.0 1.6 0.8 1.4 1.1 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.5 2.0 1.4 0.6 1.0 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 10.5 25.9 (H) (‫)م‬ 7.7 89.4 12.2 15.4 (H) (‫)م‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 11.3 13.1 11.0 23.1 12.1 43.9 7.1 17.0 43.0 15.4 N/A (‫)غ‬ 10.6 12.7 6.7 13.3 19.9 78.0 23.3 18.6 15.8 29.1 11.4 11.1 20.3 37.1 11.8 19.0 17.8 16.1 18.5 8.5 22.7 20.4 11.1 15.4 15.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 23.3 14.8 12.5 12.4 12.7 14.8 EPS (QR) 3.2 1.3 0.1 4.1 0.7 1.2 2.8 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 9.1 5.2 13.4 0.4 5.5 2.3 11.7 10.0 0.7 8.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.0 5.1 12.8 5.8 0.7 0.4 4.9 0.8 14.0 2.2 4.1 7.3 2.3 0.5 1.4 3.7 2.5 4.2 3.1 4.1 0.7 0.7 1.8 1.2 6.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.5 1.7 6.2 2.6 3.0 BV/Share (QR) 24.3 39.7 9.1 36.3 25.2 16.8 16.9 20.6 9.0 60.3 37.5 65.0 9.8 36.8 36.1 56.5 70.1 21.6 70.7 N/A (‫)غ‬ 14.7 16.8 108.5 43.6 12.5 20.4 55.4 11.4 75.2 20.4 32.7 47.2 24.8 21.1 21.5 29.7 72.8 23.0 36.4 46.9 11.4 13.2 30.8 17.3 69.3 5.6 23.1 25.9 15.4 123.9 33.3 27.4 Stock Price (QR) 33.1 33.7 23.6 31.4 64.8 14.4 42.6 18.0 8.6 102.9 68.1 147.0 9.8 101.5 83.0 168.8 29.5 136.3 9.6 10.6 64.2 85.2 14.6 28.1 114.0 14.7 220.9 64.8 46.4 81.0 19.3 17.0 71.0 44.5 68.0 35.1 15.5 13.8 19.6 105.3 9.1 52.0 21.6 77.0 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4