GCC Daily Market Update - 6 April

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 6 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,353.0 20,648.2 5,418.5 7,331.7 12,217.5 5,091.9 89,037.5 18,861.3 24,400.8 3,270.3 29,974.2 (7.2) (41.1) (21.9) 9.9 (64.8) (9.3) 424.9 51.0 139.3 47.8 64.0 (0.3) (0.2) (0.4) 0.1 (0.5) (0.2) 0.5 0.3 0.6 1.5 0.2 (0.4) (0.1) (0.3) 0.1 (0.8) (0.6) 0.1 (0.3) 1.2 1.5 1.2 5.1 4.5 11.4 2.6 6.4 4.7 13.9 (1.3) 10.9 5.4 12.6 10,467.0 7,050.9 4,640.7 3,573.3 7,059.6 5,623.6 1,350.5 1,664.7 3,117.7 75.3 64.7 91.9 13.6 43.8 0.2 2.0 15.1 (5.5) 0.7 0.9 2.0 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 (0.2) 0.7 0.7 4.4 2.7 0.4 1.3 (0.4) 1.4 (0.2) 0.3 (2.2) 2.1 1.2 22.8 (2.8) 10.7 7.0 7.1 54.4 51.2 3.3 1,245.4 268.0 0.2 0.1 (0.0) (9.6) 6.8 0.4 0.2 (0.8) (0.8) 2.6 2.4 0.5 2.5 (0.2) 0.7 (4.8) (5.3) (12.2) 8.1 6.6 Source: Bloomberg Global Global indices were mixed on Wednesday. US equities started on a strong note, following robust private sector jobs report, however expected delays in tax reforms and the FOMC minutes signaling the trimming of its balance sheet erased all of the gains. Financial sector led decliners amidst a fall in 10 year treasury yields, while defensive sectors like Utility and Real Estate demonstrated strong resilience ending the day in green. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 posted marginal gains buoyed by gains in Oil and Mining companies which tracked higher oil and copper prices. The gains were however capped as auto-related shares continued its downward trajectory. In Asia, Nikkei gained 0.3% supported by weaker yen in the Asian session. The sentiments were also boosted by an upbeat service PMI for March-17. China’s index rose supported by strong earnings reports by Chinese banks. GCC Most Gulf indices rose on Wednesday as oil inched higher. Abu Dhabi’s benchmark outperformed its peers as newly merged First Abu Dhabi Bank continued its upward trajectory, rising 4.1% for the day. Dubai’ main index gained 0.4% mainly due to gains in blue chip stocks with Emaar Properties climbing 0.9%. The gains were however capped as Emirates Integrated Telecommunication slumped 4.5% as it went ex-dividend. Saudi Arabia’s index closed 0.9% higher with Petrochemical stocks leading the gainers tracking higher oil prices. Electronics retailer- United Electronics rose 7.4% after reporting strong earnings report. Qatar QE index ended in green for the second consecutive day buoyed by higher oil prices which touched one-month high during Gulf trading. There was sustained buying support from foreign institutions. The index witnessed across the board buying, notably in Industrials, Telecom and Real Estate counters. Volumes were lower with Real Estate, Banking and Telecom sectors together accounting for more than 85% of the total trades. Out of 39 stocks traded, 20 rose, 14 fell and 5 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 15.2 1.5 3.7 65.6 DSM 20 15.6 1.6 3.8 56.2 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.3 1.6 3.4 969.2 UAE (ADX) 18.3 1.4 4.3 141.3 UAE (DFM) 15.3 1.3 3.8 78.1 Kuwait (KSE) 21.9 1.3 3.4 120.1 Oman (MSM) 11.3 1.2 5.3 8.3 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 8.8 0.8 5.8 4.7 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Medicare Group Ooredoo Qsc Barwa Real Estate Co Industries Qatar United Development Top Losers Al Ahli Bank Doha Bank Qsc Qatar Islamic Insurance Qatar Elec & Water Aamal Co Close Price 97.8 103.0 36.7 112.0 20.3 4.5 3.3 0.9 2.3 0.3 4.8 3.3 2.5 2.1 1.5 55.5 1.2 10.4 (4.7) (1.7) (10.1) 12.4 7.9 8.6 7.5 124.8 124.9 752.6 123.1 794.8 42.3 15.1 8.9 22.9 11.5 34.1 30.4 62.7 217.8 14.3 (1.9) (0.6) (1.0) (3.2) (0.2) (5.2) (1.8) (1.6) (1.4) (1.4) (8.3) (9.8) 23.9 (4.1) 4.9 (22.4) (14.8) (9.9) 7.3 13.6 7.7 216.5 0.8 15.0 15.3 10.8 9.8 14.8 15.5 19.4 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 60.0 11,000 40.0 10,467.0 10,500 10,000 11/Jan 20.0 25/Jan 8/Feb 22/Feb Index Volume (mn) 8/Mar 22/Mar 0.0 5/Apr Index Value Closing Level 3,057.8 6,404.6 3,317.3 4,318.7 2,401.9 1,256.8 2,319.1 1D Change (%) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.6 2.9 0.0 Buy (%) 44.5 17.6 62.1 10.3 27.6 37.9 Sell (%) 53.4 18.1 71.4 10.3 18.3 28.6 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 6 , 2017 GLOBAL NEWS     The minutes of FOMC meeting in March-17 showed that most policymakers think the central bank should take steps to begin trimming its USD 4.5tn balance sheet later in 2017 as long as the economic data holds up. (Source: Reuters)  Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee member, Gertjan Vlieghe said the consumer slowdown has hit the real income from a mix of low wage growth and rising inflation which underlines the need for caution on interest rates. (Source: Reuters)  US ADP National Employment Report showed that private employers added 263,000 jobs in March-17 the most since December 2014, suggesting further tightening of the country’s labor market. (Source: (Source: Arab News) The productivity of UK workforce improved in Q4-16 as economic output per hour worked rose by 1.2% YoY which was the fastest growth since Q2-15. (Source: Reuters) UAE retail sector stood at USD 56.6bn in 2016 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.9% to reach USD 71.0bn in 2021, according to new analysis released by the Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Bahrain authorities have issued orders for the instant allocation of 4,200 housing units at various locations across the kingdom. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain based Ohad Trust is now a part of Crestbridge after the latter received a consent from Central Bank of Bahrain. Later in 2017, Ohad has planned to bring the business fully under the Crestbridge brand. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain based Gulf Air inked a contract worth EUR 35.0mn (USD 37.3mn) with Recaro, the German aircraft manufacturer, to supply economy class aircraft seats for the airline’s 10 new Boeing 787-9 aircraft and 29 Airbus 320/321neo aircraft. (Source: Arabian Business)  Kuwait signed deal worth USD 4.0bn (EUR 3.75bn) with Egypt to supply crude oil and petroleum products for the next three years. Under the deal, Kuwait will supply 2.0mn barrels of crude per month and 1.5mn tons of petroleum products annually over 3 years, state-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corp said. (Source: Arabian Business)  Oman’s SEZ at Duqm will soon see a pair of methanol projects as per the plans weighed by investors in China. This move is set to reinforce Duqm’s emerging appeal as a potential global hub for petrochemicals. GCC NEWS  Oman based Al Madina Takaful Insurance Company has been subjected to disciplinary action by Capital Market Authority for violating some provisions of the Unified Policy for Vehicle Insurance. (Source: Gulf Base) Reuters)  Saudi Arabian foreign workers sent home SAR 10.77bn (USD 2.87bn) in February-17, down 15% YoY. The drop is attributed to lower economic growth and the suspension of some government projects. (Source: Trade Arabia)  UAE’s Ministry of Finance has signed an agreement for the protection and promotion of investment in Angola. The agreement comes in line with the Ministry’s strategy to expand its network of international relations and protect investments abroad. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai based Emirates NBD Capital has completed its role in the landmark IPO of ENBD REIT, which recently admitted shares to trading on Nasdaq Dubai. ENBD REIT issued 94.6mn ordinary shared at a price of USD 1.11 per share, which climbed to USD 1.17 per share (up by 5.17%) on the first day of trading. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai based Nakheel has been awarded an AED 136.0mn (USD 37.0mn) construction contract to Al Ghurair Contracting and Engineering Works for its second hotel at the Dragon City. The total project value is AED 176.0mn. (Source: Zawya) Qatar’s former PM, Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim bin Jabr Al Thani, who is is a key Qatari shareholder in Deutsche Bank AG, is using a margin loan of about $1 billion, backed by the company’s stock, to fund his participation in the lender’s rights offer. (Source: Bloomberg)  Qatar Petroleum, along with ExxonMobil signed an exploration and production sharing contract with the Cyprus Government for offshore Block 10, off the coast, in the Mediterranean Sea, to their expand international upstream footprint into the eastern Mediterranean.   Dubai based Dar Al Ebda Real Estate closed an average of 6 deals for its projects in Dubai, Turkey and Bosnia during International Property Show. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai based MBC Group and Image Nation Abu Dhabi have announced partnership for film and television production. (Source: Arabian Business)  Abu Dhabi based NBAD merger with First Gulf Bank will have a onetime integration cost of around AED 1.1bn, revised from earlier AED 600.0mn. The one-time integration costs will be fully absorbed by 2019. (Source: Gulf Base)   RAK bank has approved a cash dividend of 30% for the financial year 2016 in its AGM. The drop in 2016 profit was a result of the bank’s significant increase in provisions due to their legacy SME loan portfolio. (Source: Gulf Base) Saudi Arabia’s hotel market is set to reach USD 4.29bn in 2017, according to a new report by Euromonitor International. Over the last 5 years Saudi Arabia’s hotel market value has grown steadily by a CAGR of 4.2 to 6.4% and is forecasted to grow by 4.5% over the next 5 years. (Source: Saudi Gazette)  Saudi Aramco raised SAR 11.3bn (USD 3.0bn) in its debut Sukuk issuance. The floating rate local currency Sukuk is SAIBOR+25bsp with 7 years maturity. (Source: Zawya)  Saudi Aramco dropped its official pricing for Arab Light crude oil to northwest Europe by USD 0.45 per barrel to a USD 4.35 discount to the benchmark and by 30 cents, to a 45-cent discount to Asia. (Source: Bloomberg) (Source: Gulf Base) QATAR NEWS (Source: The peninsula)  The Communications Regulatory Authority said in a report that Qatar’s telecommunications sector has contributed 1.7% to Qatar’s GDP in the 2016, up from 1.3% in 2014. The report further showcased that the telecommunications market had planned investments of around QAR 1.25bn as a part of development of infrastructure and services. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar took part in meeting of the Executive Bureau of the Arab Ministers Council for Electricity to discuss the MoU for establishment of a joint Arab electricity market. (Source: QNA)  The Chief Executive of Qatargas said that LNG long-term growth prospects remains positive due to emergence of new market and technologies along with expansion of traditional market. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Doha Insurance Group has announced the appointment of Jassim Ali A. al-Moftah as its chief executive officer. He has a long-standing track record within the local and regional insurance sector. (Source: Gulf times)  The combined net profit of all companies as on 31 December 2016 amounted to QAR 38.3bn compared to QAR 43.8bn for the period 2015, which translates into a year on year decline of 12.4% YoY. (Source: QSE)  Qatar Stock Exchange announced trading suspension of Qatar First Bank on Thursday, 6 April 2017 due to its Annual general meeting to be held on the day. (Source: QSE) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 6 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0693 USD/QAR 3.6410 110.7000 EUR/QAR 3.8933 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2513 JPY/QAR 0.0329 USD/CHF 1.0049 GBP/QAR 4.5560 USD/CAD 1.3435 CHF/QAR 3.6232 AUD/USD 0.7570 CAD/QAR 2.7101 NZD/USD 0.6964 AUD/QAR 2.7562 USD/INR 64.3825 INR/QAR 0.0566 USD/TRY 3.6993 TRY/QAR 0.9842 USD/ZAR 13.8062 ZAR/QAR 0.2637 USD/BRL 3.1206 BRL/QAR 1.1668 FX Commentary USD retreated from three-week high against basket of major currencies on Wednesday with dollar index down 0.1%, after minutes from latest Federal Reserve indicated that it would be trimming USD 4.5tn balance sheet later this year as long as economic data holds up. Buoyant private jobs report, and higher services sector PMI supported the greenback to some extent. CAD ended lower amidst increasing divergence in US and Canadian monetary policy. EUR ended slightly higher amidst a weaker greenback and economic data, showcasing strength in private sector. GBP also posted gains amidst buoyant services sector report. A dovish stance by Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee member- Gertjan Vlieghe had little impact on the currency. JPY ended higher, amidst strong services PMI and profit booking in greenback in the later session. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.93 0.95 0.99 1.15 1.79 (0.43) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.11) 1.45 1.53 1.71 1.94 2.68 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.11 1.31 1.74 2.21 2.0% EIBOR 0.65 0.85 1.05 1.46 2.20 BMIBOR 0.83 1.03 1.50 1.85 2.53 NA NA 1.38 1.63 2.13 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 1.96% 1.23% 0.0% 2 Yrs 2.74% 2.99% 3.24% 1.85% 2.14% 2.34% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 5 Yrs Qatar 4.39% 2.99% 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 26.7 0.0 Turkey 235.0 UK 28.6 (7.8) Brazil 223.9 (47.7) Germany 17.7 (1.5) Egypt 340.1 (139.6) 1.96% 2.0% 2.32% 2.14% 2.60% 1.57% 2.12% 1.0% 0.0% 0.86% 2 Yrs 1.63% 1.38% 1.17% 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs France Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change (13.9) 53.3 24.4 Abu Dhabi 39.4 (29.1) Italy 176.5 30.3 Bahrain 220.7 (167.0) Greece 879.3 (137.9) Dubai 112.2 (43.8) Russia 162.1 (59.3) Qatar 59.2 (30.8) Japan 24.7 (9.3) Saudi Arabia 93.7 (62.3) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 09:00 Germany Factory Orders MoM Period Survey Prior Feb 4.00% (7.40%) 09:00 Germany 10:30 Germany Factory Orders WDA YoY Feb 3.90% (0.80%) Markit Germany Construction PMI Mar - 54.1 11:10 11:10 Germany Markit Germany Retail PMI Mar - 51.2 Eurozone Markit Eurozone Retail PMI Mar - 49.9 11:10 France Markit France Retail PMI Mar - 51.7 15:30 Canada Building Permits MoM Feb 1.30% 5.40% 15:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 15:30 US 16:00 Apr-01st 250k 258k Continuing Claims Mar-25th 2030k 2052k Russia Gold and Forex Reserve Mar-31st - 399.0b 16:45 US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Apr-02nd - 49.7 03:00 Japan Labor Cash Earnings YoY Feb 0.50% 0.30% 08:00 Japan Leading Index CI Feb P 104.6 104.9 Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) NA NA NA (5.1) 159.8 318.6 Qatar German Co For Medical Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 6 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (as on 30th March 2017) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 2.8 0.0 0.0 9.6 1.5 5.1 4.7 2.6 0.0 4.6 5.8 2.2 5.1 3.1 5.0 3.1 5.3 3.3 4.7 0.0 7.6 5.4 5.0 4.8 4.2 3.5 3.6 4.0 3.4 1.6 6.9 4.6 3.7 2.8 3.6 1.9 3.8 5.6 2.3 7.0 3.2 0.0 6.4 4.3 3.6 0.0 2.9 3.1 4.7 4.6 4.4 3.5 P/B Ratio (x) 1.4 0.9 2.5 0.9 2.6 0.9 2.5 0.9 1.0 1.7 1.8 2.3 1.0 1.8 1.4 2.7 2.4 1.4 1.9 1.2 0.7 3.9 0.8 1.7 1.2 1.4 2.0 1.3 2.9 3.0 1.3 1.7 1.9 1.0 0.8 2.4 0.5 2.7 1.5 0.8 1.4 1.1 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.4 2.0 1.4 0.6 1.0 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 10.8 26.1 (H) (‫)م‬ 7.7 91.9 12.3 15.2 (H) (‫)م‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 11.2 13.2 10.9 23.1 12.1 6.8 41.3 16.9 43.8 15.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.6 12.9 7.0 13.2 19.6 78.5 22.6 18.9 15.7 27.5 10.7 10.8 19.9 41.7 11.5 18.9 15.6 14.9 18.0 8.7 23.1 21.3 11.2 15.6 14.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 21.4 14.9 12.3 12.3 12.6 14.7 EPS (QR) 3.2 1.3 0.1 4.1 0.7 1.2 2.8 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 9.1 5.2 13.4 0.4 5.5 11.7 2.3 10.0 0.7 8.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 5.1 12.8 5.8 0.7 0.4 4.9 0.8 14.0 2.2 4.1 7.3 2.3 0.5 1.4 3.7 2.5 4.2 3.1 4.1 0.7 0.7 1.8 1.2 6.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.6 3.5 1.7 6.2 2.6 3.0 BV/Share (QR) 24.3 39.7 9.1 36.3 25.2 16.8 16.9 20.6 9.0 60.3 37.5 65.0 9.8 36.8 56.5 36.1 70.1 21.6 70.7 8.5 14.7 16.8 108.5 43.9 12.5 20.4 55.4 11.4 75.2 20.4 32.7 47.2 24.8 21.1 21.5 29.7 72.8 23.0 36.4 46.9 11.4 13.2 30.8 17.3 69.3 5.6 23.1 25.9 15.4 123.9 33.3 27.4 Stock Price (QR) 34.0 34.0 22.6 31.4 66.6 14.6 42.2 19.1 8.6 102.3 68.5 146.1 9.8 80.0 95.7 168.4 30.0 136.0 9.9 10.6 65.2 89.5 14.4 28.3 110.3 14.9 220.0 61.2 43.7 78.6 21.7 16.6 70.3 39.2 63.0 35.8 15.8 14.4 19.7 96.6 9.3 52.4 21.3 76.5 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4