GCC Daily Market Update - 11 April

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 11 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,357.2 20,658.0 5,421.7 7,348.9 12,200.5 5,107.5 91,240.5 18,797.9 24,262.2 3,269.4 29,575.7 1.6 1.9 3.3 (0.4) (24.5) (27.8) 2,743.1 133.3 (5.1) (17.2) (130.9) 0.1 0.0 0.1 (0.0) (0.2) (0.5) 3.1 0.7 (0.0) (0.5) (0.4) (0.2) (0.0) (0.3) 0.4 (0.9) (0.3) 2.6 (0.6) 0.6 1.5 (0.2) 5.3 4.5 11.5 2.9 6.3 5.0 16.8 (1.7) 10.3 5.3 11.1 10,485.0 7,062.2 4,571.7 3,536.5 7,008.2 5,579.0 1,362.7 1,678.5 3,117.0 (24.8) 3.6 (19.7) (18.5) (7.1) (19.3) (12.0) 0.2 0.7 (0.2) 0.1 (0.4) (0.5) (0.1) (0.3) (0.9) 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 2.9 1.6 (0.3) 0.5 0.5 2.3 (0.2) 0.5 (2.1) 0.6 0.2 21.9 (3.5) 11.7 6.7 7.2 56.0 53.1 3.2 1,251.1 260.4 0.7 0.8 (0.0) (3.2) (4.3) 1.3 1.6 (0.7) (0.3) (1.6) 6.0 4.9 2.0 0.3 (1.6) (1.4) (1.2) (12.6) 8.6 4.2 Source: Bloomberg Global Global indices were mixed on Monday. US stocks ended higher with Energy stocks leading advancers, as oil continued its upward trajectory. Banking stocks were under pressure as investors awaited the results of JP Morgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo, due on Thursday, to assess lofty valuations in the sector. M&A activity among drug makers led otherwise flat markets in Europe. France’s CAC-40 underperformed peer indices after recent polls showed far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon gaining momentum. In Asia, most of the indices closed in red, with Japan’s benchmark being an exception amidst a weaker yen. China’s index was pressure by profit booking, after posting strong gains, which were spurred by Beijing's decision to create a huge new economic zone. GCC Most of the Gulf stocks fell on Monday, with low volumes as geopolitical risk kept institutional funds away. Saudi Arabia’s benchmark bucked the broader negative trend, rising 0.1% amidst improvement in oil prices. Domestic-focused shares were some of the best performers. The index witnessed 74 advancers against 68 which declined. Abu Dhabi’s index fell 0.4%, with shares of the recently merged lender First Abu Dhabi Bank, closing 3rd consecutive session in red. The emirate’s energy company TAQA continued its upward trajectory after the government increased its stake in the company last week. Dubai’s index declined by 0.5% mainly weighed by the losses in Emaar Properties (0.5%) and Dubai Islamic Bank (1.2%) Qatar The QE Index was down by 0.2% as local retail investors turned bearish on the bourse. Bearish bets were majorly concentrated in Insurance, Transport and Banking stocks. Index heavyweight Industries Qatar shed 0.7%. Trade turnover and volumes were on the increase with Real Estate, Banking and Telecom sectors together accounting for about 82% of the total volumes. Out of 44 stock listed, 42 exchanged hands of which 16 rose, 21 fell and 5 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 15.3 1.5 3.7 64.4 DSM 20 15.6 1.6 3.8 55.6 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.3 1.6 3.4 750.2 UAE (ADX) 18.0 1.3 4.4 38.8 UAE (DFM) 15.1 1.3 3.9 49.5 Kuwait (KSE) 22.0 1.3 3.4 96.2 Oman (MSM) 11.2 1.1 5.3 4.9 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 8.9 0.8 5.8 2.1 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Widam Food Co Al Khaleej Takaful Grp Qatar Industrial Manuf Dlala Holding Ooredoo Qsc Top Losers Qatar Islamic Insurance National Leasing Mazaya Qatar Real Est Qatar Int. Islamic Qatar Insurance Co Close Price 63.4 20.5 45.2 22.3 104.8 2.4 0.5 1.0 0.3 1.3 3.9 2.5 2.3 1.5 1.3 (6.8) (2.9) 1.6 4.0 2.9 5.7 (24.4) 17.4 22.1 16.7 37.6 0.8 0.6 31.6 45.1 NA 39.9 11.1 162.6 15.3 61.2 17.7 13.9 64.2 71.6 (1.4) (0.3) (0.2) (0.8) (0.8) (2.2) (1.9) (1.5) (1.2) (1.1) 20.9 15.7 (3.5) 2.2 (2.9) (12.6) (5.2) (6.4) (0.3) (2.8) 2.6 363.3 395.0 12.3 54.1 14.4 174.1 20.5 12.4 17.8 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 60.0 11,000 10,485.0 10,500 10,000 16/Jan 40.0 20.0 30/Jan 13/Feb 27/Feb Index Volume (mn) 13/Mar 27/Mar 0.0 10/Apr Index Value Closing Level 3,071.8 6,397.0 3,310.2 4,330.8 2,412.1 1,272.6 2,297.2 1D Change (%) 0.5 0.1 (0.2) (0.9) 0.4 1.1 (0.6) Buy (%) 41.9 21.7 63.6 9.5 26.9 36.4 Sell (%) 54.8 17.3 72.1 10.7 17.2 27.9 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 11 , 2017 GLOBAL NEWS     Fed Chair Janet Yellen told Congress that it would be unwise to wait too long for rate increases as economic growth continues and inflation rises. She however emphasized that the Fed expects rate hikes to be gradual. (Source: Reuters)  Saudi Aramco's board will meet in China in May for the first time in 7 years, as the state owned energy firm is seeking to attract Chinese and Asian investors for its IPO, industry sources said. (Source: Gulf Times)  Saudi Industrial Property Authority (Modon) is expecting a rise in its contribution to Saudi Arabia’s GDP from SAR 104bn (USD 27.2bn) last year to more than SAR 140.0bn (USD 37.3bn) in 2020. (Source: Trade Arabia) Consumer expectations showed that measures of US inflation expectations dropped to 2.7% in March-17 from 3.0% in February, as per the survey by Federal Reserve. (Source: Reuters)  The IMF chief Christine Lagarde said that the outlook for the global economy in 2017 is more optimistic than 2016. She however expressed concerns over the longer run on risks like persistent low productivity and excessive inequalities. (Source: Reuters) Saudi Arabia based Alinma Bank has approved distribution of SAR 745.0mn dividend to its shareholder for the fiscal year 2016. The dividend payment equals 5% of the bank’s capital after deducting Zakat. (Source: Gulf Base)  Saudi Arabia based Al Rajhi United has agreed to acquire interest in Badwa Capital with an undisclosed amount. The funds invested will become growth capital to be used for Badwa’s expansion plans. (Source: Germany should increase investment on education and broadband internet and not just on hard infrastructure like bridges and roads to narrow its current account surplus, said IMF chief Christine Lagarde. Trade Arabia)  (Source: Reuters) Saudi Arabia licensed Fitch Australia Pty Ltd to operate its credit rating activities in the country, the Capital Market Authority said. (Source: Gulf Business)  Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank is targeting for a moderate acceleration of inflation driven by increases in wages and corporate earnings. (Source: Reuters)   The China Banking Regulatory Commission has ordered checks of lenders in areas such as regulatory arbitrage to better supervise the huge shadow banking sector. (Source: Reuters) Oman based Teejan Group of Companies has announced the launch of its first solar-powered building project for smart offices, The Taj, which will acquire an area of 3,942 sq.m in Ghala region. (Source: Trade Arabia)   Turkey's industrial production rose 1.0% YoY in February -17. Mining and quarrying index slipped by 13.6% while the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply index and the manufacturing index advanced by 9.4% and 0.7% YoY respectively. (Source: Anadolu Agency) Kuwait Petroleum International and Oman Oil Company inked an agreement to build new USD 7.0bn refinery in the sultanate's southern port town of Duqm. The formed JV is seeking a loan of USD 5bn for the development of the project. (Source: Arabian Business)  Credit rating agency Moody’s revised Turkey’s 2017 and 2018 GDP growth forecasts higher to 2.6% and 2.9% respectively, however warned that performances may be short-lived if not backed by structural reforms. (Source: AA ) QATAR NEWS  Peninsula)  The Qatari authorities has planned to implement excises on tobacco and sugary drinks, starting in 2017 in line with a GCC-wide agreement. This measure is estimated to yield about 0.2% of non-hydrocarbon GDP in revenue, according to IMF. (Source: Gulf Times)  An IMF estimate showed revenue from value-added tax at a rate of 5% could help Qatar generate additional revenue of about 1.5% points of non-hydrocarbon GDP a year. (Source: Gulf Times)  According to the IMF, Qatar which accounts for one-third of global liquefied natural gas trade, is well positioned to mitigate the macroeconomic challenges from sustained lower hydrocarbon prices, given its substantial financial buffers, with real economic growth expected to be 3.4% in 2017. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar’s fixed exchange rate regime remains appropriate as per IMF. The peg has simplified the conduct of macroeconomic policy and provided a credible anchor for economic stability. (Source: Gulf Times)  During the state visit of President Rodrigo Duterte to the Middle East from 10th to 16th April 2017 Philippines expects to secure agreements worth USD 650mn which involves 10 projects from Qatar worth USD 175mn, 7 from Saudi Arabia valued at USD 465mn and a lone investment of USD 10mn from the UAE. (Source:Manilastandard.net) GCC NEWS  Dubai Islamic Bank (DIB) won a case of USD 2.0bn land dispute against Plantation Holding Co. who claimed that DIB breach duties as mortgagee in possession of a 20mn sq. ft. land plot on the outskirts of Dubai. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai sees only 10.0% of tenants paying decreased rents. According to the survey of 300 individuals, 42.6% said that their annual rents have increased while 47.1% said their landlords have not asked for any modifications. (Source: Gulf News)  Dubai based Gloria Hotel and Yassat Gloria Hotel Apartments will be converted and rebranded into the Mercure Dubai Barsha Heights Hotel Suites & Apartments by Accor Hotels. (Source: Arabian business) Qatar's Producer Price Index grew 1.8% MoM and 34.0% YoY in February-17. Mining goods increased 1.4% MoM during the month as prices of Crude petroleum and natural gas increased. (Source: The  Abu Dhabi non-oil sector accounted for 69.5% of the total GDP whereas oil sector accounted for 30.5% in Q4-16. (Source: Gulf News)  Abu Dhabi based Agthia Group announced its plans to set up a Joint venture with Anderson Hay & Grain Co. primarily aiming to import Anderson’s premium forage products for distribution in the UAE and the GCC. (Source: Arabian business)  Abu Dhabi based Adnoc Distribution has announced a reduction in retail price of unsubsidized LPG cylinders for April-17 to AED 52 per 25lb reduced from AED 58 per 25lb, AED 104 per 50lb and AED 208 per 100lb. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Qatar General Electricity & Water Corporation (Kahramaa) has given its contract of Electricity Transmission Network Expansion Plan-Phase 13 worth USD 817mn to India's top engineering and construction firm Larsen & Toubro. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Ras al Khaimah based Ceres Associates has been awarded a contract worth AED 11.8mn (USD 3.2mn) to rehabilitate the original landfill serving the UAE emirate of Umm Al Quwain. The project will be completed in two phases and the company plans to complete its first phase in December-17. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Commercial Bank has announced that its partnership with Xpress Money, a global remittance solutions provider, to launch an easy to use mobile remittance app for the bank’s PayCard customers. (Source: Gulf Times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 11 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0626 USD/QAR 3.6406 110.9400 EUR/QAR 3.8685 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2445 JPY/QAR 0.0328 USD/CHF 1.0087 GBP/QAR 4.5307 USD/CAD 1.3326 CHF/QAR 3.6092 AUD/USD 0.7501 CAD/QAR 2.7320 NZD/USD 0.6962 AUD/QAR 2.7308 USD/INR 64.0625 INR/QAR 0.0568 USD/TRY 3.7294 TRY/QAR 0.9762 USD/ZAR 13.9522 ZAR/QAR 0.2609 USD/BRL 3.1316 BRL/QAR 1.1625 FX Commentary USD ended in red against the basket of major currencies with dollar index down 0.15% due to geopolitical fears about the French presidential election, escalating tensions in Syria, growing unease about North Korea as well as uninspiring comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen. The currency was also pressurized by investor’s cautious stance ahead of US retail sales data and consumer sentiment data. CAD touched one-week high against its US counterpart as oil prices continued to rise. The currency was also supported by sentiments of recent upbeat domestic data ahead of BoC’s decision on interest rates this week. GBP gained against greenback as investors eyed upcoming inflation data that could revive bets on eventually tighter BoE policy. EUR rose against weaker dollar but gains were limited due to anxiety over upcoming French election. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.93 0.95 0.99 1.16 1.80 (0.42) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.12) QAIBOR 1.45 1.53 1.71 1.94 2.67 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.10 1.31 1.74 2.21 2.0% EIBOR 0.68 0.85 1.07 1.46 2.17 BMIBOR 0.83 1.03 1.50 1.85 2.53 NA NA 1.38 1.63 2.13 LIBOR EURIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 1.90% 1.26% 0.0% 2 Yrs 2.73% 2.98% 3.24% 1.87% 2.16% 2.34% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 5 Yrs Qatar 4.40% 2.97% 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 25.1 (1.3) Turkey 236.2 UK 28.4 (9.0) Brazil 221.3 (48.6) Germany 17.3 (1.6) Egypt 348.7 (131.3) 2.14% 1.97% 2.0% 2.31% 2.57% 1.59% 2.11% 1.0% 0.0% 0.84% 2 Yrs 1.36% 1.15% 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 1.60% 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs France Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change (19.5) 56.8 28.5 Abu Dhabi 40.3 (29.2) Italy 183.8 42.5 Bahrain 220.3 (165.2) Greece 897.8 (127.6) Dubai 111.2 (48.8) Russia 173.6 (60.9) Qatar 60.1 (31.0) Japan 26.4 (7.6) Saudi Arabia 95.4 (62.6) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 09:00 Japan Machine Tool Orders YoY Mar P - 9.10% 11:30 UK CPI MoM Mar 0.30% 0.70% 11:30 UK CPI YoY Mar 2.30% 2.30% 11:30 UK CPI Core YoY Mar 1.90% 2.00% 11:30 UK RPI MoM Mar 0.40% 1.10% 11:30 UK RPI YoY Mar 3.20% 3.20% 11:30 UK PPI Output NSA MoM Mar 0.10% 0.20% 11:30 UK PPI Output NSA YoY Mar 3.40% 3.70% 12:00 Eurozone Industrial Production SA MoM Feb 0.10% 0.90% 12:00 Germany ZEW Survey Current Situation Apr 77.5 77.3 12:00 Eurozone ZEW Survey Expectations Apr - 25.6 12:00 Germany ZEW Survey Expectations Apr 14.8 12.8 16:00 Russia Current Account Balance 1Q P 18,750m 10,124m 16:00 Russia Trade Balance Feb 10.3b 11.4b 02:50 Japan Machine Orders YoY Feb 2.50% (8.20%) 02:50 Japan Machine Orders MoM Feb 3.60% (3.20%) 02:50 Japan PPI YoY Mar 1.40% 1.00% Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 11 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 6th April 2017) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 2.8 0.0 0.0 9.9 1.5 5.1 4.7 2.7 0.0 4.7 6.1 2.1 5.2 3.1 5.0 3.1 5.4 3.3 4.8 0.0 7.6 5.4 5.0 4.8 4.1 3.6 3.6 4.0 3.5 1.6 6.6 4.6 3.7 2.9 3.6 1.8 3.8 5.6 2.3 6.8 3.2 0.0 6.2 4.2 3.4 0.0 2.7 3.0 4.7 4.7 4.5 3.5 P/B Ratio (x) 1.4 0.8 2.5 0.8 2.7 0.9 2.5 0.9 1.0 1.7 1.7 2.3 1.0 1.8 1.4 2.7 2.4 1.4 1.9 1.5 0.7 3.8 0.8 1.7 1.2 1.4 2.0 1.3 2.9 3.0 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.0 0.8 2.4 0.5 2.7 1.5 0.8 1.4 1.1 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.5 2.0 1.4 0.6 1.0 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 10.8 25.6 (H) (‫)م‬ 7.5 92.4 12.3 15.4 (H) (‫)م‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 11.2 12.6 11.1 22.9 12.1 6.8 42.3 16.8 43.8 15.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.6 12.7 7.0 13.2 19.9 78.1 22.7 18.8 15.4 27.6 11.1 10.9 19.9 39.5 11.6 19.2 15.6 14.8 18.2 8.9 23.1 21.0 11.5 15.8 15.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 22.6 15.0 12.3 12.0 12.5 14.8 EPS (QR) 3.2 1.3 0.1 4.1 0.7 1.2 2.8 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 9.1 5.2 13.4 0.4 5.5 11.7 2.3 10.0 0.7 8.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 5.1 12.8 5.8 0.7 0.4 4.9 0.8 14.0 2.2 4.1 7.3 2.3 0.5 1.4 3.7 2.5 4.2 3.1 4.1 0.7 0.7 1.8 1.2 6.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.6 3.5 1.7 6.2 2.6 3.0 BV/Share (QR) 24.3 39.7 9.1 36.3 25.2 16.8 16.9 20.6 9.0 60.3 37.5 65.0 9.8 36.8 56.5 36.1 70.1 21.6 70.7 6.5 14.7 16.8 108.5 43.9 12.5 20.4 55.4 11.4 75.2 20.4 32.7 47.2 24.8 21.1 21.5 29.7 72.8 23.0 36.4 46.9 11.4 13.2 30.8 17.3 69.3 5.6 23.1 25.9 15.4 123.9 33.3 27.4 Stock Price (QR) 34.1 33.3 22.5 30.5 67.0 14.6 42.6 18.7 8.6 102.1 65.1 148.5 9.7 79.9 98.0 166.8 30.0 134.7 10.0 10.6 64.4 89.9 14.6 28.2 110.7 14.9 215.8 61.4 45.4 79.2 20.6 16.8 71.4 39.1 62.6 36.6 15.8 14.2 20.3 103.5 9.4 52.7 21.2 74.6 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4