GCC Daily Market Update - 9 February

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE February 9 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,294.7 20,054.3 5,196.6 7,188.8 11,543.4 4,766.6 88,249.1 19,007.6 23,485.1 3,167.0 28,289.9 1.6 (36.0) 10.7 2.6 (6.1) 12.1 772.4 96.8 153.6 13.9 (45.2) 0.1 (0.2) 0.2 0.0 (0.1) 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.4 (0.2) 0.7 1.0 1.6 1.3 0.1 0.4 2.3 (0.2) 0.5 0.2 2.3 2.5 1.5 6.8 0.6 0.5 (2.0) 12.9 (0.6) 6.7 2.0 6.2 10,653.8 6,967.4 4,574.2 3,725.9 6,655.5 5,827.7 1,310.0 1,645.2 3,015.2 68.9 (71.2) 29.1 7.4 72.5 3.0 (0.2) 1.1 9.5 0.7 (1.0) 0.6 0.2 1.1 0.1 (0.0) 0.1 0.3 0.5 (1.9) 0.6 2.3 (2.6) 0.9 0.5 0.3 1.0 2.1 (3.4) 0.6 5.5 15.8 0.8 7.3 5.3 3.7 55.1 52.3 3.1 1,237.6 266.7 0.1 0.2 (0.0) 3.4 3.5 0.1 0.3 (0.1) 0.3 1.3 (0.7) (0.6) 1.2 2.4 (2.0) (2.7) (2.3) (15.3) 7.5 6.7 Source: Bloomberg Global Most major global indices closed in the green on Wednesday. In US, S&P 500 rose 0.1% led by surge in high dividend yielding sectors like Utilities and Real-estate, while Financial stocks lost 0.8% as the bond rally continued. Energy sector also turned higher tracking gains in oil prices. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 added 0.3%, with Mining stocks leading gainers, as copper prices climbed on supply concerns. Broadly positive earnings releases further boosted the optimism. In Asia, Nikkei edged up 0.5% on the back of a stall in yen's recent rise and upbeat earnings. Hong Kong stocks erased early losses and closed at a 3 month highs on Wednesday, boosted by shares of China property developers and brokers. GCC Most major gulf indices closed high, however Saudi Arabia’s benchmark retreated 1.0%, as Brent fell below USD 55 per barrel, during the Gulf trading. All 14 listed petrochemical producers declined with Nama Chemicals retreating 5.3%. Banking shares were also weak. UAE shares climbed for the fourth straight session on the back of buoyant Q4 earnings and dividends. Dubai's DFM index was up 0.2% with Emaar Properties rising 1.5% and DXB Entertainments adding 0.9%. Energy companies in Abu Dhabi outperformed in the run-up ahead of Q4 earnings. Kuwait index added 1.1%, after posting a fall of 1.8% the previous day. Qatar QE index gained 0.7%, with Barwa Real Estate leading gainers, after the company swung to profit in Q4-16. Foreign investors turned bullish on the bourse, with buying activity pronounced in Realty (1.3%) and Banks and Financial Services (0.7%). United Development led losers, after the board recommended a dividend of QAR 1.25, this year, compared to QAR 1.5 announced for 2015. In terms of volume, Real Estate, Banking and Telecom constituted more than 82% of the total traded. Out of 44 companies listed, 40 exchanged hands, of which 16 advanced, 17 declined and 7 remain unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 14.5 1.6 3.9 98.8 DSM 20 15.5 1.6 3.8 87.3 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.2 1.6 3.4 1,177.3 UAE (ADX) 11.9 1.4 5.3 57.8 UAE (DFM) 12.4 1.3 3.6 160.9 Kuwait (KSE) 22.9 1.2 3.6 158.6 Oman (MSM) 10.9 1.2 4.9 7.1 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.4 0.4 4.3 1.3 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Barwa Real Estate Co Islamic Holding Group Al Khalij Comm. Bank Commercial Bank Qsc Doha Bank Qsc Top Losers United Development Mazaya Qatar Real Est Doha Insurance Co Mesaieed Petchem Al Meera Cons. Goods Close Price 38.7 59.0 16.7 33.1 38.0 3.0 2.0 0.6 1.1 1.0 8.3 3.5 3.4 3.3 2.7 16.4 (3.3) (1.8) 1.7 8.9 21.9 14.2 18.0 15.4 175.0 (0.7) (0.3) (0.3) (0.1) (1.4) (3.0) (1.9) (1.4) (0.8) (0.8) 6.0 (1.1) (1.1) (2.5) (0.3) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 9.9 2,587.0 9.4 2.6 11.6 80.6 (4.6) 12.9 14.1 (19.6) 276.8 32.6 1.6 390.8 11.8 13.4 30.4 (6.7) (8.3) (8.6) 513.3 206.8 9.1 138.7 23.0 12.4 16.7 12.4 19.4 22.1 Qatar DSM Index 11,500 40.0 10,653.8 11,000 10,500 20.0 10,000 9,500 13/Nov 0.0 27/Nov 11/Dec 25/Dec Index Volume (mn) 8/Jan 22/Jan 5/Feb Index Value Closing Level 3,016.4 6,233.5 3,258.9 4,303.5 2,345.1 1,233.7 2,592.2 1D Change (%) 0.7 (0.0) 0.5 (0.3) 1.3 0.1 0.1 Buy (%) 40.8 29.6 70.4 11.5 18.2 29.7 Sell (%) 41.6 31.5 73.1 11.1 15.9 27.0 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE February 9 , 2017 GLOBAL NEWS   UK PM Theresa May won approval from parliament's lower chamber to trigger Britain's exit from the European Union, defeating attempts by pro-EU lawmakers to attach extra conditions to her plan to start divorce talks by 31st March 2017. (Source: Reuters) Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe warned against moves to dilute the banking rules introduced after the global financial crisis, which have come under fresh scrutiny following Donald Trump US presidential election win. (Source: Reuters)  The European Union wants to agree with Britain on a formula for calculating how much it will owe the bloc after it leaves, rather than defining a concrete sum in advance, EU officials said. (Source: Reuters)  Japan's core machinery orders rebounded more than expected to 6.7% in December-16 from a 5.1% drop in November-16 and are seen rising again in Q1-17, an encouraging sign of a pick-up in capital expenditure. (Source: Reuters)  Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Hiroshi Nakaso said Japan's economy still needs massive monetary support given overseas uncertainties and stubbornly weak price growth, shrugging off market speculation it may raise its bond yield target in 2017. (Source: Reuters)  Reserve Bank of India unexpectedly kept repurchase rate at 6.25%, despite a slowdown in the economy, signalling concern over rises in global commodity prices, and risks stemming from uncertainty over US economic policy. (Source: WSJ)  Turkey’s calendar adjusted industrial production advanced by 1.3% YoY in December-16. Mining and quarrying output decreased by 7.5% YoY while the manufacturing output increased by 1.3% YoY. (Source: to be the world's biggest initial public share offer. (Source: Arabian Business)  TMX Group, owner of the Toronto Stock Exchange, said that it is in talks with Saudi Arabia over the possibility of Saudi Aramco listing in Canada. (Source: Reuters)  Oman’s industrial estates had attracted investment to the tune of OMR 6bn in H1-16, CEO of Public Establishment for Industrial Estates (PEIE) said. (Source: Times of Oman)  Al Ahli Bank of Kuwait's net profit increased 7.0% YoY to KWD 32.5mn in 2016. The bank's total assets and loans portfolio stood at KWD 4.3bn and KWD 3.0bn respectively in 2016. (Source: KUNA)  Kuwait Projects Co. (KIPCO) mandated banks to arrange a new US dollar-denominated bond issue of up to USD 500mn. The new bond will be part of KIPCO's existing USD 3bn euro medium term note programme. Citi, HSBC, Kamco and JP Morgan have been appointed to arrange the debt offer. (Source: Reuters) QATAR NEWS  Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) is set to increase its investment in the USD 2bn joint venture with the state-backed Russian Direct Investment Fund's (RDIF). (Source: Arabian Business)  Hamad International Airport (HIA) witnessed a record 37.3mn passengers in 2016, a 20.5% YoY increase. HIA’s landings and take-offs also surged 15.8% YoY to 2,45,800 in 2016. (Source: Arabian Business)  Higher oil prices may boost shale oil production but the global oil market can accommodate this as demand remains healthy, Qatar's energy minister said. (Source: Arabian Business)  Qatar is spending almost USD 500mn every week on major infrastructure projects for the 2022 FIFA World Cup and this will carry on for the next three to four years, Minister of Finance HE Ali Shareef al Emadi said. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  QInvest, an investment bank in Qatar, posted revenues of QAR 416mn (USD 114mn) for 2016, reflecting a 6% YoY increase. Operating profits increased 3% YoY to QAR 220mn (USD 60mn), and assets increased 5% YoY to QAR 4.7 bn (USD 1.3bn). (Source: Trade Arabia)  Qatar National Bank, is turning its focus to Southeast Asia for growth after achieving expansion goals in the region earlier than planned. TurkStat) GCC NEWS  GCC sovereigns financing will need an estimated USD 275bn over the next three years and these countries will predominantly use debt financing, according to S&P Global Ratings. (Source: The Peninsula)  The total volume of bilateral non-oil trade between UAE and Turkey exceeded USD 9.1bn in 2016. Mutual investments focused on a number of vital sectors, most notably tourism and hospitality, food, energy, and telecommunications and information technology. (Source: Gulf Today)  Dubai Islamic Bank announced the successful pricing of the largest senior sukuk issuance by a financial institution globally. The USD 1bn sukuk was issued with a five-year tenor, maturing on 14th February-22. (Source: Trade Arabia)  UAE based developer Manazel Real Estate announced plans to launch a major real estate project at Ghantoot, a coastal area situated between the emirates of Dubai and Abu Dhabi. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai-based developer Sobha Group ruled out expansion elsewhere in the GCC but plans to be in one other non-Middle Eastern, non-Asian territory by 2020, its founder and chairman said. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai-based Meydan Group signed a strategic deal with Azizi Developments to build 180 residential and retail units as part of its Meydan One scheme in Dubai. (Source: Arabian Business)  (Source: Bloomberg)  With the lubricant oil market size in Qatar touching 45,000 tons in 2016, French oil major Total, through its ELF brand of lubricant, is aiming to be the market leader in the country, a top company official said. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Salam International Investment’s net profit fell 7% YoY to QAR 44mn in Q4-16. The 2016 full year net profit was QAR 114.2mn, up from QAR 113.1mn in 2015. (Source: Reuters)  Qatar Insurance Company reported a net profit attributable to parent of QAR 1.034bn in 2016 almost flat compared to QAR 1.043bn in 2015. Gross written premium increased 19% YoY to QAR 9.901bn in 2016. The Board of Directors’ have proposed a 15% of shares par value as a cash dividend equivalent to QAR 1.50 per share in addition to a bonus share of 15%, in the ratio of three shares for every twenty shares. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Medicare Group’s net profit plunged 42.4% to QAR 29.7mn in Q4-16 whereas the full year net profit fell to QAR 65.2mn in 2016 from QAR 180.4mn in 2015. The BOD recommended to distribute 30% cash of the nominal share value as dividend which is equivalent to QAR 3 per share. (Source: Reuters)  Al Rayyan Tourism Investment Company has appointed Tarek M ElSayed as its new CEO and managing director. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Industrial Manufacturing Company posted a net profit of QAR 193.9mn in 2016 compared to net profit of QAR 168.8 in 2015. (Source: Dubai Investments announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary Dubai Investments Industries divested its 100% stake in Marmum Dairy Farm and its distribution unit United Sales Partners to UAE based Elite Agro, a subsidiary of Emirates Advanced Investments Group. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Moody's Investors Service upgraded the issuer rating of Abu Dhabi based Aldar Properties to Baa2 from Baa3. (Source: CPI Financial)  New York based boutique investment bank Moelis & Co has been chosen as an adviser by Saudi Aramco on its plans for what is expected QSE) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE February 9 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0728 USD/QAR 3.6412 111.9300 EUR/QAR 3.9063 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2571 JPY/QAR 0.0325 USD/CHF 0.9947 GBP/QAR 4.5774 USD/CAD 1.3144 CHF/QAR 3.6606 AUD/USD 0.7645 CAD/QAR 2.7702 NZD/USD 0.7266 AUD/QAR 2.7837 USD/INR 66.6900 INR/QAR 0.0546 USD/TRY 3.7190 TRY/QAR 0.9791 USD/ZAR 13.4139 ZAR/QAR 0.2714 USD/BRL 3.1156 BRL/QAR 1.1687 FX Commentary USD fell after two days of gains against a basket of major currencies, with dollar index down 0.2%. The fall can be attributed to low US treasury yields as investors price out a March US interest rate hike by the Fed amid uncertainty about President Trump's economic policies. CAD strengthened against its US counterpart as oil prices rebounded and domestic housing starts for January-17 rose higher than expected. EUR rose from more than one week lows on short-covering after days of losses. The gains were however capped as German Industrial Output for December came in below expectation. GBP rose against USD, majorly due to weakness in latter. Negative warnings over impact of Brexit showcased by BoE survey, had little impact on the currency. JPY gained due to a risk off mode, ahead of the meeting between the US President and Japan’s PM. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.69 0.72 0.77 1.04 1.71 (0.42) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.10) LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year QAIBOR 1.25 1.42 1.61 1.88 2.59 SAIBOR NA 1.17 1.69 1.96 2.34 EIBOR 0.52 0.69 0.97 1.40 2.10 BMIBOR 0.63 0.73 1.23 1.73 2.18 NA NA 1.19 1.44 2.06 KIBOR Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.0% 3.43% 3.07% 2.72% 4.42% 1.87% 2.0% 1.82% 1.15% 2.14% 2.34% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 2.96% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 26.6 (4.3) Turkey 255.2 9.2 UK 29.2 (2.8) Brazil 237.8 (27.6) Germany 22.1 5.2 Egypt 385.2 (64.4) France 51.8 21.2 Abu Dhabi Italy 181.3 51.9 Greece 995.4 Russia 179.8 Japan 26.1 (7.2) Saudi Arabia 2.0% 1.46% 2.09% 1.90% 1.0% 1.54% 1.28% 1.06% 0.0% 2.27% 2.54% 2.01% 0.74% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 57.3 (23.1) Bahrain 248.5 (122.1) 15.7 Dubai 139.2 (26.7) (30.2) Qatar 79.6 (25.6) 109.4 (68.1) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 09:00 Japan Machine Tool Orders YoY 10:00 Germany Trade Balance 16:00 Russia Gold and Forex Reserve 16:30 Canada New Housing Price Index MoM 16:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 16:30 US Continuing Claims 17:45 US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 18:00 US Wholesale Inventories MoM 02:50 Japan PPI YoY 07:30 Japan Tertiary Industry Index MoM Period Survey Prior Jan P - 4.40% Dec 20.5b 22.7b Feb-03rd - 392.5b Dec 0.20% 0.20% Feb-04th 249k 246k Jan-28th 2058k 2064k Feb-05th - 46.6 Dec F 1.00% 1.00% Jan 0.00% (1.20%) Dec (0.20%) 0.20% Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) United Development Co NA NA NA 171.4 81.3 43.1 Barwa Real Estate Co NA NA NA 107.4 (120.8) (63.9) Oman Insurance Co Psc QoQ (%) 2,226.5 384.1 405.7 (2.8) (90.4) (111.7) 12.5 (44.5) (54.0) 3.8 (57.5) (26.8) Takaful Emarat Insurance Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE February 9 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (as on 2nd February 2017) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Mannai Corp. Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 2.8 9.4 0.0 8.2 1.7 4.6 4.9 3.2 0.0 4.5 5.9 2.1 6.0 3.5 7.6 6.0 5.0 3.6 4.8 0.0 8.6 5.1 4.5 5.3 6.5 3.4 4.3 4.5 3.4 1.8 6.4 4.4 4.2 5.0 3.3 1.8 3.4 7.4 2.3 6.4 3.3 1.9 6.7 4.4 2.9 0.0 2.3 3.0 5.2 5.4 5.0 3.8 P/B Ratio (x) 1.4 0.7 2.3 1.0 2.3 1.0 2.4 0.8 1.0 1.8 1.8 2.3 1.0 1.8 1.9 1.5 2.7 1.3 2.1 1.2 0.8 4.1 0.8 1.8 1.2 1.4 2.1 1.4 3.0 2.7 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.0 0.9 2.5 0.6 2.5 1.6 0.7 1.3 1.1 0.7 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.5 2.1 1.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 10.9 16.6 (H) (‫)م‬ 9.0 80.0 13.8 14.7 (H) (‫)م‬ (H) (‫)م‬ 11.6 13.1 11.1 27.6 11.9 21.3 7.6 22.0 41.1 12.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.4 13.7 6.6 12.3 14.6 32.7 20.9 19.1 15.8 24.9 11.4 11.4 18.7 17.3 12.7 19.6 3.6 13.3 12.0 13.6 23.0 16.9 14.5 18.7 15.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 22.6 15.4 13.7 11.9 13.1 14.4 EPS (QR) 3.3 1.9 0.1 4.1 0.7 1.2 2.8 0.1 0.0 9.1 5.2 14.7 0.4 5.9 3.1 10.9 8.1 0.7 12.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 5.1 13.5 6.5 1.0 0.9 5.5 0.8 14.0 2.2 4.1 8.0 2.5 1.2 1.4 4.3 11.1 4.1 5.2 2.5 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.0 6.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.6 3.5 1.8 7.8 2.9 3.1 BV/Share (QR) 25.5 43.6 9.1 36.3 25.2 16.8 16.9 20.6 10.3 60.3 37.5 71.5 10.0 38.2 35.1 55.3 66.7 21.6 76.8 8.5 14.3 16.8 106.9 44.3 12.4 21.1 55.1 11.0 75.2 20.4 31.9 52.0 24.6 20.9 21.5 34.2 72.5 22.0 39.4 46.7 11.2 13.2 30.3 17.2 70.9 5.6 23.6 25.9 15.0 120.1 32.4 27.6 Stock Price (QR) 36.0 31.8 21.3 36.6 58.0 16.3 40.8 15.5 9.8 106.0 68.0 164.0 10.1 65.9 83.2 178.5 28.1 160.0 9.9 11.6 69.3 88.4 14.6 29.6 115.5 15.6 222.0 55.5 47.1 91.4 20.2 18.3 84.0 40.5 54.0 34.3 15.0 14.4 22.4 103.0 9.5 54.0 24.1 93.3 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4