GCC Daily Market Update - 21 March

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 21 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,373.5 20,905.9 5,413.3 7,429.8 12,052.9 5,012.2 90,902.1 19,521.6 24,502.0 3,250.8 29,518.7 (4.8) (8.8) 4.5 4.9 (42.3) (17.1) 410.7 NA 192.1 13.4 (130.3) (0.2) (0.0) 0.1 0.1 (0.4) (0.3) 0.5 NA 0.8 0.4 (0.4) 0.4 0.4 1.6 2.3 1.8 3.2 3.9 2.1 3.2 0.3 2.7 6.0 5.8 11.3 4.0 5.0 3.1 16.3 2.1 11.4 4.7 10.9 10,406.8 6,919.3 4,457.8 3,477.5 6,868.8 5,670.7 1,374.2 1,648.7 3,132.0 68.2 (33.4) 38.4 (15.6) 11.3 (9.9) (3.0) 0.3 2.2 0.7 (0.5) 0.9 (0.5) 0.2 (0.2) (0.2) 0.0 0.1 (2.8) (0.8) (2.1) (4.2) 1.3 (1.9) 1.8 0.1 1.6 (0.3) (4.0) (1.9) (1.5) 19.5 (1.9) 12.6 5.2 7.8 51.6 48.2 3.0 1,234.0 265.6 (0.1) (0.6) 0.1 3.8 (2.4) (0.3) (1.2) 3.2 0.3 (0.9) (6.7) (10.5) 10.7 (1.6) (3.3) (8.8) (10.0) (17.5) 7.1 4.3 Source: Bloomberg Global Global indices were mixed on Monday. US and European indices retreated amid concerns about G20 financial leaders' decision to drop a pledge to keep global trade free and open. S&P closed 0.2% lower, with Financials leading the decliners, amidst a continued fall in yield. Lower yields however benefited rate sensitive Real Estates stocks. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.2% with Energy stocks down for the first time in 4-days due to lower crude prices. Banking sector was also a drag on the broader index as sector heavyweight, Deutsche Bank AG fell to its lowest in 2017 after saying it will raise EUR 8.0bn by selling stock at 35% discount to last week’s closing price. In Asia, Hang Seng surged 0.8%, buoyed by China Shenhua Energy Co, which gained after announcing a special dividend. GCC Gulf indices were mixed on Monday. Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index was down 0.5%, weighed by Petrochemical stocks, which ended in red tracking lower oil prices. Insurance sector also fell on the back of profit booking following Sunday’s rally. Solidarity Saudi Takaful slumped 5.6% after the regulator suspended its right to issue health insurance policies. Chubb Arabia Cooperative Insurance fell 0.8% after it said it would not distribute a cash dividend for 2016. Dubai’s benchmark ended in red with Construction firm, Drake & Scull down 2.2%. Declining shares outnumbered advancing ones in the ratio of 18 to three. Abu Dhabi index closed 0.9% on the back of gains in blue chips. Qatar QE index rose 0.7% on Monday as sell-off spurred by investors in the 20 Russell stocks eased, with most of stocks in the group closing higher. The index was supported by strong buying support from foreign institutions. Bullish bets were prominent in Industrial, Real Estate and Telecom sector. Banking stocks were also among the gainers with the Commercial Bank of Qatar up 1.9% for the day. Out of 44 stocks listed, 44 exchanged hands of which 28 rose, 11 fell and 5 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 15.1 1.6 3.7 98.0 11,000 DSM 20 15.4 1.5 3.7 85.4 10,500 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.1 1.6 3.4 785.3 UAE (ADX) 12.7 1.4 5.4 34.7 UAE (DFM) 14.9 1.2 3.9 50.2 Kuwait (KSE) 22.8 1.3 3.4 115.4 Oman (MSM) 11.1 1.1 5.1 9.3 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.0 0.8 4.6 1.3 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar Cin & Film Distrib Dlala Holding Qatar National Cement Al Khaleej Takaful Gr Qatar Gen Ins & Re Top Losers Doha Insurance Co Al Meera Cons Goods Qatar Elect & Water Co Qatar German Medical Gulf International Serv. Close Price 26.8 23.5 80.9 19.4 44.5 2.4 1.5 3.4 0.7 1.5 9.8 6.8 4.4 3.9 3.5 (2.4) 9.4 3.5 (8.1) (5.3) (2.0) 23.9 4.7 (25.5) (4.1) 0.1 585.4 45.4 121.7 0.1 39.4 171.0 11.1 37.7 17.7 16.3 168.5 217.5 9.6 27.6 (1.2) (4.5) (2.5) (0.1) (0.3) (6.8) (2.6) (1.1) (0.9) (0.9) (10.4) (4.0) (4.2) (5.0) (11.3) (15.5) (22.4) 10.4 (30.2) (26.3) 2.1 36.6 105.4 6.0 58.5 11.3 16.9 15.5 NA 77.6 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 40.0 10,406.8 20.0 10,000 9,500 22/Dec 0.0 5/Jan 19/Jan 2/Feb Index Volume (mn) 16/Feb 2/Mar 16/Mar Index Value Closing Level 2,995.6 6,443.4 3,356.0 4,359.1 2,333.2 1,209.6 2,343.0 1D Change (%) 0.8 0.8 0.9 (0.3) 1.0 0.8 0.1 Buy (%) 32.3 9.2 41.5 8.5 50.0 58.5 Sell (%) 40.8 31.8 72.6 7.6 19.9 27.5 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 21 , 2017 GLOBAL NEWS  Fed policymaker Charles Evans said that the Fed is on track to raise interest rates twice more in 2017 after a policy tightening last week. He further stated that any further tightening is subject to policies from Trump administration. (Source: Reuters)  UK Prime Minister Theresa May will official launch the Brexit process on 29th March-17, commencing two years of complex negotiations.  British Petroleum’s Ghazeer gas project in Oman is projected to deliver 0.5bn cubic feet of natural gas per day by 2020. With Khazzan due to deliver a billion cubic feet a day by the end of 2017, the two fields will together eventually increase Oman’s natural gas supply by around 40% providing solid foundations for Oman to diversify its industrial base. (Source: Times of Oman)  Bank Muscat shareholders granted approval for the payout of 30% dividend for 2016 at the AGM. Shareholders would receive cash dividend of OMR 0.025 per ordinary share of OMR 0.100 each aggregating to OMR 62.41mn on the bank’s existing share capital. In addition, they would receive bonus shares in the proportion of one share for every 20 ordinary shares. (Source: Times of Oman)  Bank Muscat said that compulsorily convertible bonds (CCB) worth OMR 31.96mn issued in 2014 will be converted to common equity shares of bank on 20th March-17 as per terms of prospectus. (Source: (Source: Bloomberg)  European Central Bank Governing Council member Ignazio Visco said the central bank could step away from its commitment to keep interest rates low for a long time after quantitative easing stops. (Source: Bloomberg)   The Eurozone job vacancy rate increased marginally to 1.7% in Q4-16, from 1.6% in Q3-16. The job vacancy rate was 1.3% in industry and construction, and 2% in services. (Source: Morning Star) Money created by the ECB to shore up Eurozone growth and inflation is piling up in Germany as investors are reluctant to venture outside the country, Bundesbank data showed. This is pushing up the Bundesbank's claims on the ECB's Target 2 payment system, which rose to a record high of EUR 814bn (USD 875.13bn) in February-17. Reuters)  The Central Bank of Bahrain announced that the monthly issue of the Sukuk Al-Salam Islamic securities, has been subscribed by 169%. Subscriptions worth BHD 72.7mn were received for the BHD 43mn issue, which carries a maturity of 91 days. (Source: CBB)  The CEO of Bahrain’s sovereign wealth fund Mumtalakat ruled out high-profile technology investments along the lines of Saudi Arabia’s USD 3.5bn cash injection in transport app Uber, citing lack of maturity in such companies. (Source: Arabian Business)  Bahrain based Yusuf Bin Ahmed Kanoo Group announced that its courier service, KRT, has been acquired by UAE based Fetchr in a move to enter a new partnership that will elevate the service levels for its customers with cutting edge technological solutions. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Al Ruwayeh & Partners (Asar), a corporate law firm said that it had acted as law counsel to Kuwait, which was represented by the Kuwait Investment Authority, for the establishment of its Global Medium Term Note Programme and Kuwait's inaugural dual-tranche USD 8bn issuance. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Kuwait’s Warba bank established a new branch in the Shuhada region in line with the bank’s vision of strategic expansion in the most dynamic and distinctive areas of Kuwait. (Source: Arab Times) (Source: Reuters)   Inflationary pressure in Germany increased further in February-17, as prices at Germany's factory gates recorded their strongest annual rise in over five years. Producer prices rose 0.2% MoM and 3.1% YoY in February-17. (Source: Market Watch) Greece and its euro zone creditors are still at odds over reforms required before new loans can be disbursed to Athens, the head of Eurozone finance ministers said after an inconclusive meeting in Brussels. (Source: Reuters) GCC NEWS     Dubai Electricity and Water Authority has set a May-17 deadline for proposals from qualified bidders for the development of a 200 megawatt Concentrated Solar Power plant. (Source: Arabian Business) Dubai based DP World’s revenue for 2016 grew 4.9% YoY supported by full year contribution of Jebel Ali Free Zone (UAE) and Prince Rupert (Canada). The adjusted EBITDA (USD 2.3bn) increased 17.4% YoY with adjusted EBITDA margin of 54.4%. The company posted a net profit of USD 1.127bn, up 27.6% YoY. (Source: Trade Arabia) The founder of Dubai based e-commerce website Mumzworld said that the company has commenced talks to raise new funds for expansion across the non-GCC countries. (Source: Arabian Business) Dubai completed a solar plant big enough to power 50,000 homes as part of a plan to generate three-quarters of its energy from renewables by 2050. The 200 megawatt plant sprawls over 4.5sq.km of desert and includes some 2.3mn photovoltaic panels. (Source: Arabian Business)  Abu Dhabi's Senaat, a state-owned investor in the emirate's industrial sector, obtained a dual-tranche revolving credit facility of USD 400mn. The three and five year loan will replace an existing USD 750mn revolving facility raised in 2013 and will back Senaat's general corporate requirements. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabia’s state-owned Real Estate Development Fund and Banque Saudi Fransi have signed an agreement to provide housing finance to 1.2mn eligible Saudi citizens. (Source: Arab News)  Oman’s central bank has decided to raise its capital to OMR 1bn from OMR 760mn with effect from 1st April-17. (Source: Times of Oman)  Oman’s Capital Market Authority approved a request from national insurance companies to offload a 25% stake of promoters, instead of the normal 40% stake mandated for an IPO. (Source: Times of Oman) QATAR NEWS  A USD 5.6bn loan has been approved to Glencore and the Qatar Investment Authority for the acquisition of a 19.5% stake in Rosneft by Italy’s Financial Security Committee from Intesa SanPaolo. (Source: Oilprice)  Advanced Construction Technology Services, a consultant in the field of construction materials and geotechnical engineering, has been awarded a contract to carry out testing on building materials to be used for Qatar 2022 World Cup infrastructure projects. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Loan growth is expected to remain strong in Qatar over the coming years averaging a forecast 15% annually during 2017-21 as large-scale government investments into infrastructure and diversification programs fuel domestic demand for credit, according to BMI. (Source: Gulf times)  BMI expects Qatar’s loan-to-deposit ratio to rise from 115.5% in 2016 to 124.4% in 2018. It forecasts Qatar’s annual asset growth at 12% and 12.5% in 2017 and 2018, respectively, which is the highest level in the GCC. (Source: Gulf times)  The governments of Qatar and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines signed two co-operation agreements in the legal and aerial transport fields. (Source: Gulf Times)  ICT spending by Qatar's commercial sector is set to grow by 47.0%, from USD 1.9bn in 2015 to USD 2.8bn in 2019, according to the Ministry of Transport and Communications. (Source: Qatar Tribune) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 21 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0769 USD/QAR 3.6413 112.5500 EUR/QAR 3.9213 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2388 JPY/QAR 0.0324 USD/CHF 0.9985 GBP/QAR 4.5108 USD/CAD 1.3350 CHF/QAR 3.6468 AUD/USD 0.7731 CAD/QAR 2.7276 NZD/USD 0.7055 AUD/QAR 2.8151 USD/INR 64.8600 INR/QAR 0.0561 USD/TRY 3.6160 TRY/QAR 1.0070 USD/ZAR 12.6454 ZAR/QAR 0.2880 USD/BRL 3.0724 BRL/QAR 1.1852 FX Commentary The US dollar started on a weak note, continuing to be impacted by a relatively dovish stance adopted by the Fed, last week. The currency however pared losses to end the session in green, after comments from Chicago Fed President Charles Evans who said that the Federal Reserve was on track to raising interest rates twice more this year. The CAD weakened slightly against its US counterpart as lower oil prices offset strong wholesale trade data that unexpectedly soared 3.3% MoM in January on stronger sales of motor vehicles and parts. GBP fell from a three-week high against the USD on news that Prime Minister Theresa May would trigger Britain's divorce proceedings with the European Union on March 29, launching two years of negotiations. EUR ended on a flat note, despite a relatively hawkish stance by ECB Governing Council member. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.92 0.95 0.98 1.15 1.81 (0.43) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.11) 1.38 1.49 1.69 1.94 2.67 SAIBOR NA 1.12 1.32 1.74 2.21 EIBOR 0.69 0.85 1.02 1.44 2.05 BMIBOR 0.83 1.03 1.50 1.85 2.53 NA NA 1.31 1.56 2.13 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.55% 4.0% 2.88% 3.16% 3.44% 2.00% 2.29% 2.48% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 2.04% 2.0% 1.30% 3.09% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 25.2 (0.1) Turkey 234.2 UK 30.2 (4.1) Brazil 229.7 (42.4) Germany 19.3 1.5 Egypt 333.9 (146.3) 2.0% 2.27% 2.10% 2.44% 2.71% 1.64% 2.21% 1.0% 0.96% 1.53% 1.32% 1.76% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs France Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change (21.7) 61.0 32.4 Abu Dhabi 42.6 (24.8) Italy 194.0 56.5 Bahrain 226.6 (157.5) Greece 946.9 (92.9) Dubai 118.7 (28.9) Russia 172.5 (42.5) Qatar 66.3 (24.5) Japan 21.9 (12.6) Saudi Arabia 99.3 (53.9) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 12:30 UK CPI YoY Feb 2.10% 1.80% 12:30 UK CPI MoM Feb 0.50% (0.50%) 12:30 UK CPI Core YoY Feb 1.70% 1.60% 07:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index MoM Jan 0.00% (0.30%) 12:30 UK PPI Output NSA MoM Feb 0.30% 0.60% 12:30 UK PPI Output NSA YoY Feb 3.70% 3.50% 15:30 Canada Retail Sales MoM Jan 1.50% (0.50%) 15:30 US Current Account Balance 4Q ($129.0b) ($113.0b) 02:50 Japan Trade Balance Feb ¥807.2b (¥1087.6b) 15:30 Canada Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Jan 1.30% (0.30%) 12:30 UK PSNB ex Banking Groups Feb 3.2b (9.4b) 12:30 UK RPI MoM Feb 0.80% (0.60%) 12:30 UK RPI YoY Feb 2.90% 2.60% 12:30 UK Retail Price Index Feb 267.5 265.5 02:50 Japan Trade Balance Adjusted Feb ¥550.8b ¥155.5b 12:30 UK Public Finances (PSNCR) Feb -- (26.5b) 12:30 UK Public Sector Net Borrowing Feb 2.8b (9.8b) Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 21 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Mannai Corp. Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 2.9 0.0 0.0 9.6 1.6 5.2 4.8 2.9 0.0 4.7 5.9 2.2 5.1 3.1 2.9 4.8 5.3 3.7 4.7 N/A (‫)غ‬ 7.6 5.4 5.3 4.8 4.2 3.6 3.5 4.1 3.5 1.6 7.0 4.5 3.6 3.1 3.7 1.8 3.4 5.2 2.3 7.2 3.2 0.0 6.4 4.4 3.4 0.0 2.8 3.1 4.6 4.6 4.4 3.5 P/B Ratio (x) 1.4 0.8 2.6 0.9 2.5 0.9 2.5 0.9 1.0 1.7 1.8 2.3 1.0 1.8 2.8 1.5 2.4 1.2 1.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 0.7 3.9 0.8 1.8 1.1 1.4 2.1 1.3 2.9 3.2 1.3 1.7 1.9 0.9 0.8 2.4 0.6 3.0 1.6 0.7 1.4 1.0 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.5 2.0 1.4 0.6 1.0 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 10.6 24.9 (H) (‫)م‬ 7.7 88.4 12.2 15.0 (H) (‫)م‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 11.2 13.2 11.0 23.3 12.0 44.2 7.1 16.9 39.2 15.4 N/A (‫)غ‬ 10.5 12.7 6.7 13.3 19.5 76.6 23.4 18.6 15.5 29.0 10.5 11.1 20.3 37.3 11.3 19.0 17.8 16.1 18.5 8.4 22.7 19.7 11.1 15.3 15.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 22.9 14.7 12.5 12.4 12.7 14.7 EPS (QR) 3.2 1.3 0.1 4.1 0.7 1.2 2.8 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 9.1 5.2 13.4 0.4 5.5 2.3 11.7 10.0 0.7 8.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.0 5.1 12.8 5.8 0.7 0.4 4.9 0.8 14.0 2.2 4.1 7.3 2.3 0.5 1.4 3.7 2.5 4.2 3.1 4.1 0.7 0.7 1.8 1.2 6.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.5 1.7 6.2 2.6 3.0 BV/Share (QR) 24.3 39.7 9.1 36.3 25.2 16.8 16.9 20.6 9.0 60.3 37.5 65.0 9.8 36.8 36.1 56.5 70.1 21.6 70.7 N/A (‫)غ‬ 14.7 16.8 108.5 43.6 12.5 20.4 55.4 11.4 75.2 20.4 32.7 47.2 24.8 21.1 21.5 29.7 72.8 23.0 36.4 46.9 11.4 13.2 30.8 17.3 69.3 5.6 23.1 25.9 15.4 123.9 33.3 27.4 Stock Price (QR) 33.3 32.4 23.5 31.4 64.1 14.4 41.6 17.4 8.6 102.0 68.4 146.9 9.9 102.3 82.9 168.5 26.8 136.4 9.6 10.5 64.6 85.2 14.3 27.6 114.4 14.7 217.5 64.7 42.7 80.9 19.4 16.3 71.0 44.5 68.0 34.8 15.5 13.3 19.5 102.9 9.0 51.4 21.5 77.0 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4