GCC Daily Market Update - 21 May

Transcription

1. WEEKLY WRAP May 21 , 2017 ECONOMIC UPDATE & NEWS Region Event Period Survey Actual Prior Italy CPI EU Harmonized YoY Apr F 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% France CPI YoY Apr F 1.20% 1.20% 1.20% 2.60 Germany ZEW Survey Current Situatn. May 82 83.9 80.1 2.50 Germany ZEW Survey Expectations May 22 20.6 19.5 2.40 Mar F - (1.90%) (2.10%) Apr - 19.4k 33.5k 2.30 Eurozone CPI YoY Apr F 1.90% 1.90% 1.50% Japan GDP SA QoQ 1Q P 0.50% 0.50% 0.30% 2.10 Japan GDP Annualized SA QoQ 1Q P 1.70% 2.20% 1.40% 2.00 US Initial Jobless Claims May-13th 240k 232k 236k Russia Gold and Forex Reserve May-12th - 399.7b 398.8b Canada CPI YoY Apr 1.70% 1.60% 1.60% Source: Bloomberg 2.20 US retail sales rose 0.4% MoM in Apr-17 after an upwardly revised 0.1% MoM gain in Mar-17. CPI increased 2.2% YoY during the month. 15-May 08-May 01-May 24-Apr 17-Apr 10-Apr 03-Apr 27-Mar 20-Mar Source: Bloomberg Saudi Arabia government to provide high-speed fibre optic broadband services. (Source: Zawya) GLOBAL NEWS  2.15 13-Mar Jobless Claims Change 06-Mar UK 27-Feb Industrial Production MoM 20-Feb Japan UST 10yr Bond  (Source: Reuters) Saudi Arabia's air-conditioning market is expected to grow at the CAGR of ~8.7% for the next five years, making it a SAR 7.0bn market by 2017. (Source: Trade Arabia)  US housing starts declined 2.6% MoM in Apr-17 to 1.2mn and permits decreased 2.5% MoM in Apr-17 to 1.2mn. (Source: Blomberg)  Saudi Arabia and Russia signaled plans to extend oil production cuts into 2018. (Source: Arabian Business)  The New York Federal Reserve raised outlook on US economic growth in Q2-17 following the latest data on retail sales, CPI and PPI. (Source:  Saudi Aramco will reduce oil supplies to Asian customers by about 7.0mn barrels in Jun-17. (Source: Zawya)  Central Bank of Bahrain has announced that it is working closely with BENEFIT to launch the first phase of the national electronic wallet, at the end of Jun-17. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Omani commercial banks can lend up to 1.0% of the 5.0% mandated credit to SME’s in the form of non-funded credit, which includes LCs for imports or guarantees for government projects. (Source: Gulf Base) Reuters)  The Eurozone recorded trade surplus of EUR 30.9bn in Mar-17 up from EUR 17.8bn in Feb-17. (Source: Reuters)  European car sales fell 6.8% YoY in Apr-17. Registrations dropped to 1.2mn cars in Apr-17 in the EU and European FTA countries, Brusselsbased industry body ACEA said. (Source: Reuters)  Australian wages growth held at 1.9% YoY in Q1-17, which is the lowest on record. (Source: Reuters)  S&P reaffirmed Australia's triple-A rating, citing low public debt and a wealthy and resilient economy. (Source: Reuters)   China’s real estate investment rose at a robust rate of 9.3% YoY in Jan17 to Apr-17 period. (Source: Reuters)  China’s steel production reached at its highest-ever level of 72.8mn tonnes in Apr-17. (Source: Reuters) Qatar’s CPI declined by 0.2% MoM to 108.4 and rose by 0.6% YoY in Apr-17. (Source: QNA)  Non-oil exports for the Q1-17 stood at QAR 4.9bn. For Mar-17, total value of non-oil exports rose to QAR 1.8bn, compared to QAR 1.5bn in Mar-16. (Source: Mubasher)  Minister of Energy and Industry said that the rate of decline in capital expenditure in the oil and gas industry in the past two years has now reached a critical state. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Qatar and Sweden are planning to set up a green water desalination project that would use only solar and wind energy to treat water and reduce 4,50,000 tons of carbon emission per year. (Source: The Peninsula)   China’s non-financial outbound direct investment (ODI) declined by 71.0% YoY in Apr-17 to USD 5.8bn. (Source: Reuters)  Japan's economy grew an annualized 2.2% in Q1-17, posting the fastest growth rate since Q1-16. (Source: Reuters) GCC NEWS QATAR NEWS QSE will introduce new tools to assist the listed companies in unifying the disclosure format and procedures, QSE chief executive said. (Source: Gulf Times)  UAE’s non-oil foreign trade volume, including direct trade and free zones, increased by 0.5% YoY to AED 1.6tn in 2016. (Source: WAM)  Total value of remittances from the UAE reached AED 37.1bn in Q117, with Indian expats topping the list, accounting for 34.9% of the total remittances. (Source: Arabian Business)  The energy and industry sector in Qatar has achieved a Qatarisation rate of 29.0%, with increase in Qatari employees by 3x to 9,300 in 16 years, said Minister of Energy and Industry. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Abu Dhabi Fund for Development has allocated funds worth AED 700.0mn for 9 infrastructure development projects in Bangladesh.  Qatar Chamber (QC) discussed prospects of promoting trade cooperation and investment opportunities available in the agricultural sector with Greek Deputy Minister of Rural Development and Food. (Source: WAM)  Dubai based Jebel Ali Free Zone attracted 470 new companies during 2016, registering a CAGR of 7.0% over the previous five years, chairman and CEO of the DP World Group said. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia and the US are in talks to enter contracts worth USD 10.0bn in arm sales. (Source: Financial Express)  Saudi Telecom Company inked an agreement worth SAR 7.3bn with (Source: QNA)  CBQ opened its latest branch at Mall of Qatar, providing full-fledged personal banking and ATM services. (Source: The Peninsula)  QIB has priced a highly successful USD 750.0mn 5-year RegS only sukuk offering. The sukuk was issued at par with an annual profit rate of 3.3%, representing a spread of 135bps over 5-year mid-swaps. (Source: Gulf Times) 1
2. WEEKLY WRAP May 21 , 2017 EQUITY Index Price Index Price WTD %Δ 2,381.7 (0.4) (0.1) 6.4 MSCI EM 995.7 (0.7) 1.8 15.5 20,804.8 (0.4) (0.6) 5.3 S&P GCC 1,639.3 0.0 0.8 4.3 Nasdaq 5,651.6 (0.6) 1.2 16.2 Dow Jones Islamic 3,239.3 0.2 1.6 11.4 FTSE 100 7,470.7 0.5 3.7 4.6 KSA (TASI) 6,938.1 0.8 (1.1) (3.8) DAX 30 12,638.7 (1.0) 1.6 10.1 UAE (DFM) 3,378.0 (1.2) (1.1) (4.3) CAC 40 5,324.4 (1.5) 1.1 9.5 UAE (ADX) 4,581.3 (0.6) 1.3 0.8 BIST 100 95,147.3 0.2 0.5 21.8 Qatar (DSM) 10,103.4 (0.1) 0.4 (3.2) Nikkei 17.0 S&P 500 DJIA WTD %Δ MTD %Δ YTD %Δ COMMENTARY MTD %Δ YTD %Δ 19,590.8 (1.5) 2.1 2.5 Kuwait (KSE) 6,725.8 0.8 (1.7) Sh. Comp 3,090.6 0.2 (2.0) (0.4) Bahrain (BAX) 1,308.8 0.1 (2.0) 7.2 Hang Seng 25,174.9 0.1 2.3 14.4 Oman (MSM) 5,415.1 (0.3) (1.8) (6.4) Sensex 30,464.9 0.9 1.8 14.4 Jordan (ASEGI) 2,165.3 0.3 (0.9) (0.2) Source: Bloomberg GLOBAL INDICES Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) 0.9 Sensex FTSE 100 Jordan (ASEGI) Sh. Comp BIST 100 Hang Seng S&P 500 DJIA Nasdaq MSCI EM DAX 30 Nikkei CAC 40 (0.4) (0.4) (0.6) (0.7) (1.0) (1.5) (1.5) (2.0) (1.5) (1.0) (0.5) 0.0 0.5 1.0 21.8 BIST 100 Nasdaq MSCI EM Hang Seng Sensex DAX 30 CAC 40 S&P 500 DJIA FTSE 100 Nikkei Jordan (ASEGI) (0.2) Sh. Comp (0.4) 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 (5.0) 1.5 Source: Bloomberg GCC markets ended mixed during the last week. Saudi markets ended 0.8% higher, on the back of gains in oil prices. Food & Staples Retailing and Food & Beverages indices gained by almost 2.0%. Kuwaiti markets ended higher, after the International Index complier MSCI revealed that it would increase its weight in its Frontier Market index. On the flipside, Dubai markets underperformed its peer indices. Drake & Scull declined 6.8% for the week, after the company swung into a loss in Q1-17. On the other hand, Damac Properties surged 8.7%, after MSCI said that the stock would be a part of its UAE index from June-17. 10.1 9.5 6.4 5.3 4.6 2.5 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 Source: Bloomberg GCC INDICES Weekly Performance (%) Most major global markets closed lower this week, following a steep plunge on Wednesday, after reports that the US President allegedly influenced the former FBI Chief to stop investigations into the exNational Security adviser over Russian connections. The deepening controversy is believed could derail the market friendly reforms promised by the Trump administration. US indices pared some losses later during the week, with Energy stocks supporting the broader benchmarks amidst higher oil prices. Mostly positive Eurozone economic data did little to boost sentiments in Europe, which saw the broad based Stoxx 600 end almost 1.0% lower. The FTSE 100 index however demonstrated resilience, on the back of encouraging UK retail sales and unemployment data. Japanese equities ended lower, amidst a stronger yen. GCC 16.2 15.5 14.4 14.4 0.0 Global YTD Performance (%) Qatar Kuwait (KSE) 0.8 Kuwait (KSE) KSA (TASI) 0.8 Dow Jones Islamic Dow Jones Islamic 0.2 Bahrain (BAX) Bahrain (BAX) 0.1 S&P GCC S&P GCC KSA (TASI) (0.3) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Qatar (DSM) (0.1) Oman (MSM) UAE (DFM) (0.6) 7.2 4.3 0.8 (3.2) (3.8) (4.3) Oman (MSM) (6.4) (1.2) (1.5) 11.4 UAE (ADX) 0.0 Qatar (DSM) 17.0 (1.0) (0.5) 0.0 0.5 (10.0) (5.0) 1.0 Source: Bloomberg 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 QE index ended slightly lower during the last week, weighed by bearish bets from retail investors. While higher oil prices were a positive for the index, sell-off in Insurance, Telecom and Consumer goods stocks dragged the index into red. Volumes declined during the week, with Banking, Real Estate and Telecom sector accounting for almost 89% of total volumes. More than 53% of the stocks were in the red with major losers being Vodafone Qatar, QNB and Industries Qatar. Source: Bloomberg DSM INDEX 11,500 11,000 10,103.4 10,500 10,000 9,500 Nov-16 Jan-17 Index Feb-17 50 SMA 100 SMA Apr-17 200 SMA Indicator Price Last Close 10,103.4 MAVG 50 10,262.4 MAVG 100 10,493.4 MAVG 200 10,451.1 6 Month High 11,057.8 6 Month Low 9,636.4 RSI (14 Days) 47.5 Source: Bloomberg 2
3. WEEKLY WRAP May 21 , 2017 RATES & CREDIT US Treasury (%) Qatar Treasury (%) 3.50 5.00 2.90 3.00 2.50 1.27 2.00 1.36 1.00 0.88 4.41 3.14 2.82 2.50 3.00 1.84 1.65 1.00 0.50 2.63 1.78 2.00 1.50 2.24 2.05 4.30 4.00 3.24 1.77 2.36 2.54 5 Yrs 7 Yrs 1.32 0.00 0.00 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs 2 Yrs 30 Yrs Current Last Year Source: Bloomberg 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg CDS 5 Years CDS 10 Yrs Last Year Qatar Govt. Int. Bonds Price (BPS) WTD Δ (BPS) MTD Δ (BPS) YTD Δ (BPS) Global Maturity Price (USD) Z Spread (BPS) Yield (%) WTD Δ (USD) YTD Δ (USD) QGS 2018 100.3 24.2 1.36 (0.0) 0.0 QGIB 2019 108.8 27.1 1.67 0.0 (1.2) QGIB 2020 108.3 44.3 1.97 0.2 0.2 Qatari Diar 2020 100.0 62.0 2.33 0.4 1.8 QGIB 2021 108.1 67.6 2.25 0.0 0.5 US 21.8 (2.1) (3.1) 0.3 UK 24.5 (0.2) (2.3) (10.5) Germany 16.1 (0.6) (0.2) (3.5) France 29.3 (0.7) (4.3) (9.7) QGIB 2022 108.7 68.2 2.45 0.4 1.6 Italy 163.2 0.8 (5.5) 34.7 QGS 2023 103.1 75.1 2.55 0.1 0.8 Greece 681.1 42.7 (190.9) (351.7) QGIB 2026 100.9 102.3 3.11 0.3 4.1 QGIB 2030 161.7 152.7 3.70 0.4 6.8 QGIB 2040 130.9 190.0 4.23 0.5 5.7 QGIB 2042 122.2 191.0 4.26 0.6 5.3 QGIB 2046 105.3 191.0 4.28 1.5 4.9 Russia 152.6 1.2 (1.0) (119.2) Japan 25.2 0.2 (0.3) (11.8) Turkey 210.3 4.6 0.2 (69.5) Brazil 247.0 48.1 29.8 (102.6) Source: Bloomberg, QCB Egypt 351.2 16.2 6.3 (129.4) US Swap Rates Abu Dhabi 40.0 (2.0) (0.8) (55.0) Bahrain 222.2 2.1 (0.2) (156.6) Dubai 112.7 0.0 1.0 Qatar 60.1 (1.8) 1.3 GCC Saudi Arabia Tenor 93.5 1.6 5.4 Price (%) Weekly Δ (BPS) YTD Δ (BPS) 3M LIBOR 1.172 (0.008) 0.174 6M LIBOR 1.399 (0.038) 0.081 (104.4) 12M LIBOR 1.705 (0.061) 0.019 (40.9) 2 years 1.514 (0.022) 0.057 5 years 1.856 (0.060) (0.121) 10 years 2.172 (0.079) (0.167) 30 years 2.432 (0.096) (0.163) 7.0 International Credit Spreads iTraxx Europe 63.4 0.1 (3.5) (9.3) Source: Bloomberg iTraxx Europe Crossover 254.4 (3.6) (13.1) (36.9) Commentary CDX North America IG 64.5 1.8 0.3 (3.3) CDX North America HY 332.4 6.0 6.1 (21.8) iTraxxSovX CEEMEA NA NA NA NA iTraxx Europe Senior Financial 36.3 (0.8) (4.3) (33.8) iTraxx Europe Sub Financial 45.6 (1.2) (13.6) (79.1) US Treasury yields fell for the week as political turmoil surrounding the US President Trump triggered risk-off mode and lifted demand for safe heaven assets. Moreover, investors worried that allegations against the President Trump could derail his growth agenda including tax cuts and infrastructure spending. The yields however recovered slightly towards the end of the week driven by encouraging economic indicators including US industrial production growth in April-17 and lower weekly jobless claims. Eurozone sovereign bond yields dropped over the week tracking US counterparts on concerns over US political turmoil. Source: Bloomberg 3
4. WEEKLY WRAP May 21 , 2017 COMMODITIES Commodities Price Commentary Brent (USD/bbl) 53.6 WTI Crude (USD/bbl) 50.3 Oil Prices rose for the week on growing expectations that OPEC and other countries will agree to extend output cuts in the upcoming meeting, as Saudi Arabia and Russia announced their consent to extend crude oil output cuts until March 2018. Oil prices were further lifted after EIA reported a sixth straight weekly decline in US crude inventories. Natural gas prices ended lower for the week on reports of more-thanexpected rise in natural gas inventories. Copper prices dropped earlier in the week due to investors’ concerns over China's slowing economic growth, however it recovered later in the week and ended in green due to weakness in US Dollar. Gold prices rose as safe haven demand increased amidst ongoing US political turmoil. Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) 3.3 Gold (USD/t oz.) 1,253.6 Silver (USD/t oz.) 16.8 Copper (USD/lb) 257.4 Source: Bloomberg Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) Brent Gold 5.4 WTI Crude Silver 2.2 Gold 2.1 4.9 Copper 2.5 Copper 8.8 Silver 5.2 2.7 Brent (5.6) WTI Crude (6.3) Natural Gas (12.6) Natural Gas (4.9) (6.0) (4.0) (2.0) 0.0 2.0 4.0 (15.0) 6.0 Source: Bloomberg (10.0) (5.0) 0.0 5.0 10.0 Source: Bloomberg FX Currencies Price Currencies Price GBP/USD 1.3066 USD/INR 64.1375 EUR/USD 1.1236 USD/CNY 6.8850 CAD/USD 0.7401 USD/TRY 3.5745 AUD/USD 0.7459 USD/EGP 18.0949 0.6924 USD/ZAR 13.2312 111.2600 USD/RUB 56.8925 NZD/USD USD/JPY Commentary USD ended lower against most major currencies last week amidst heightened political uncertainty and uproar in the US, following Donald Trump's firing of FBI Director James Comey, who was overseeing an investigation into possible links between the Trump's team and Russia. The currency was also weighed by weakness in US house starts for April-17 and US manufacturing activity in May-17, which raised some skepticism over interest rate hikes. CAD strengthened with rise in oil prices, while EUR gained amidst encouraging Eurozone Q1 17 GDP and Mar-17 trade surplus data. GBP ended higher driven by positive reports on UK inflation and UK retail sales for Apr-17. Source: Bloomberg Weekly Performance (%) EUR JPY CAD GBP ZAR AUD NZD RUB CNY EGP TRY INR YTD Performance (%) RUB EUR GBP INR JPY ZAR AUD CNY EGP NZD (0.1) CAD (0.5) TRY (1.4) 2.5 1.9 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.0 (0.1) (0.5) (1.0) Source: Bloomberg (0.5) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 (2.0) 8.2 6.6 5.6 5.4 5.2 3.8 3.5 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 Source: Bloomberg DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4