GCC Daily Market Update - 24 May

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 24 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,398.4 20,937.9 5,703.3 7,485.3 12,659.2 5,348.2 97,717.5 19,613.3 25,403.2 3,061.9 30,365.3 4.4 43.1 3.9 (11.1) 39.7 25.3 1,317.5 (65.0) 11.8 (13.7) (205.7) 0.2 0.2 0.1 (0.2) 0.3 0.5 1.4 (0.3) 0.1 (0.4) (0.7) 0.6 (0.0) 2.1 3.9 1.8 1.5 3.2 2.2 3.2 (2.9) 1.5 7.1 5.9 17.3 4.8 10.3 10.0 25.1 2.6 15.5 (1.3) 14.0 10,123.0 6,936.4 4,546.0 3,363.6 6,744.7 5,401.6 1,309.9 1,638.0 3,256.9 (11.9) (51.3) (5.8) (26.4) (29.7) (11.8) 1.0 (1.4) (0.9) (0.1) (0.7) (0.1) (0.8) (0.4) (0.2) 0.1 (0.1) (0.0) 0.6 (1.1) 0.5 (1.5) (1.4) (2.0) (1.9) 0.7 2.2 (3.0) (3.8) (0.0) (4.7) 17.3 (6.6) 7.3 4.2 11.9 54.2 51.5 3.2 1,255.5 259.1 0.3 0.7 (0.1) (5.9) 0.2 0.5 1.5 (3.3) (0.5) 0.1 5.0 4.7 (1.2) (1.0) (0.5) (4.4) (3.9) (13.1) 9.0 3.1 Global US markets ended higher yesterday as overall stable economy and broadly robust corporate earnings season overshadowed the effects of political uncertainty. Financial stocks were among the top performers. Shares of auto parts manufacturers however fell, following the result announcement by Autozone Inc., as its earnings missed the analyst expectations. Most European indices were in green, as upbeat economic data stoked optimism about the growth prospects of the common currency bloc. UK’s FTSE 100 however fell after a terror attack by a suicide bomber in Manchester, England. Travel-related shares declined significantly. Reports of Manchester bombing also weighed on the Asian markets, with Chinese and Japanese benchmarks closing 0.4% and 0.3% lower, respectively. Losses in Japanese shares were also on account of strength in the Yen. GCC GCC markets ended lower yesterday. Saudi Arabia’s TASI pulled back 0.7% witnessing subdued volumes ahead of the commencement of the holy month of Ramadan. Media and Capital Goods were among the worst performing sectors. Both Emirati indices were in red with Dubai’s ADX (0.8%) underperforming all other GCC indices. DXB Entertainments dropped 2.2%, as the upcoming holy month and beginning of hot summer season is expected to reduce footfalls at the company’s theme parks. Kuwaiti markets closed lower mainly due to selling pressures in Technology and Consumer Services indices. Qatar QE Index ended lower led by losses in Transportation and Consumer Goods & Services indices. Markets witnessed lower buying support from foreign institutional and local retail investors. Trade turnover and volumes fell, with Banking, Real Estate and Telecom sector stocks accounting for about 88% of the total volumes. Out of 44 companies listed, 39 exchanged hands, of which 26 declined, 9 advanced and 4 remain unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 14.9 1.5 3.7 55.5 11,000 DSM 20 15.1 1.5 3.7 46.7 10,500 GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Qatar DSM Index 60.0 40.0 10,123.0 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 16.3 1.6 3.3 694.9 UAE (ADX) 16.5 1.3 4.5 24.8 UAE (DFM) 16.1 1.2 4.2 61.9 Kuwait (KSE) 18.7 1.2 4.4 21.0 Oman (MSM) 12.3 1.2 5.4 2.1 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 8.1 0.8 6.0 2.1 QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Performance Close 1D Change Price Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Top Gainers Qatar Islamic Insurance 64.3 Qatar & Oman Inv. Co 9.3 Qatar National Bank 142.0 Gulf Intl. Services 24.0 Islamic Holding Group 65.9 Top Losers Zad Holding Co 75.5 Qatar Electric & Water 211.0 Widam Food Co 61.7 Medicare Group 94.0 Al Khaleej Takaful Grp 19.5 1.8 0.2 1.7 0.2 0.4 2.9 2.2 1.2 0.8 0.6 27.1 (6.5) (4.1) (22.9) 8.0 10.7 (15.8) 16.5 (35.2) (0.6) (3.5) (4.0) (0.7) (1.0) (0.2) (4.4) (1.9) (1.1) (1.1) (1.0) (15.4) (7.0) (9.3) 49.4 (7.6) (13.6) 4.9 6.4 (8.7) (23.2) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Vol. (‘000) P/E TTM 109.5 15.1 0.1 26.2 162.3 10.5 139.0 1,437.7 35.5 71.5 16.6 4.0 38.8 28.5 11.7 9.8 15.0 NA 38.3 38.8 20.0 10,000 9,500 1/Mar 0.0 15/Mar 29/Mar 12/Apr Index Volume (mn) 26/Apr 10/May Index Value Closing Level 3,002.4 5,954.5 3,122.8 4,256.4 2,366.2 1,276.0 2,106.3 1D Change (%) 0.6 (0.6) (0.5) (0.6) (0.6) 0.1 (0.7) Buy (%) 48.7 24.9 73.6 8.3 18.0 26.4 Sell (%) 44.9 27.7 72.6 9.3 18.1 27.4 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 24 , 2017 GLOBAL NEWS   US plans to start selling off half of its strategic oil reserves in fiscal 2018 under the proposal made by President Trump. The sale would generate USD 500.0mn in the first year and gradually rise over the following years. (Source: Reuters) US new home sales fell 11.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 56,900 units in April-17 with sales in the West region plunging to their lowest level in nearly 1-1/2 years. March-17 new home sales pace was revised up to 642,000 units. (Source: Reuters)  Federal Reserve former Chairman Bernanke said that Bank of Japan might need to coordinate a new fiscal spending plan with the government allowing for inflation to enhance above 2.0% target without worsening the debt burden. (Source: Reuters)  China's credit ratings has been downgraded by Moody's Investors Service to A1 from Aa3 as the it expects the financial strength will fade away in coming years as growth slows and debt continues to rise.  (Source: Saudi Gazette)  Turkey foreign direct investment (FDI) stood at USD 1.6bn in March17. In Q1-17 FDI increased by 2.0% YoY to USD 2.8bn and the financial intermediation sector received highest that is USD 990.0mn followed by mining and quarrying sector with USD 223.0mn. (Source: AA) GCC NEWS     Gulf insurance companies are increasingly investing in bonds due to surge in high-grade debt issuance by governments’ and regulatory changes. The region is thereby moving closer to investment patterns of developed economies. (Source: Reuters) Gulf based bidders have arose for the partly owned subsidiary of United Arab Shipping Company (UASC) whose sale is key to finalizing the merger between UASC and German container shipping line Hapag Lloyd. (Source: Zawya) UAE is committed to oil production targets agreed in the OPEC deal to curb output, but is expanding its oil and gas production capacity, the energy minister said. (Source: Zawya) Dubai hardware and tools trade was valued at AED 5.1bn (USD 1.4bn) in 2016 of which US, China, Italy, Germany and India accounted for 52.0% or AED 2.6bn (USD 707.8mn) of total trade, according to data released by Dubai Customs. (Source: Construction Week Online)  Dubai Hospital’s expansion plan worth AED 290.0mn (USD 79.0mn) will start soon and is aimed at boosting its facilities and help meet the growing demand for medical services from within and outside the country. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai-based autonomous robotics and drone solutions provider, DigiRobotics, has signed worth USD 26.0mn deal with Taqnia to manufacture seven robotic products and implement smart automation technologies across various factories in Saudi Arabia. Times) Saudi Aramco inked a MoU with McDermott International with an expected value of SAR 10.5bn (USD 2.8bn) to expand and develop its physical and human capital within the kingdom which is expected to create up to 2,000 jobs in the coming years. (Source: Construction Week Online)  Saudi Arabia joint venture between RATP Dev and Saptco, Public Transport Company has inked major agreements with Mercedes-Benz and MAN to acquire around 1,000 buses for the future Riyadh bus network. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia based Islamic Development Bank plans to revamp its operations, including a shift away from small scale capital interventions to more sustainable and grass root level support, President of the bank said. (Source: Gulf Times)  Oman’s USD 2.0bn Sukuk Islamic bond sale attracted orders for more than 3 times the issue size, allowing it to cut the price offered to investors to 235bps from 270bps as it seeks funds to help trim a budget deficit. (Source: Bloomberg)  Oman based Public Establishment for Industrial Estates (PEIE) has signed financial facility worth OMR 50.0mn (USD 129.0mn) with Bank Dhofar for several infrastructure projects undertaken by the PEIE in its industrial estates. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Oman Shipping Company has set up a new commercial chartering desk offering its very large crude carrier (VLCCs) to major traders and charterers covering VLCC routes worldwide. (Source: Trade Arabia) QATAR NEWS  Foreign investments into Qatar increased by 11.0% YoY to QAR 537.3bn and foreign direct investment accounted for around 1/4th of the foreign investment. (Source: Gulf Times)  The Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) signed a corporation agreement with the Qatar International Centre for Conciliation and Arbitration (QICCA) for cooperation between the institutions to reach peaceful settlement of international disputes. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  The Qatari Ministry of Justice reported that the traded value of registered selling contracts from 14th to 18th May-17 amounted to QAR 695.8mn. The traded real estate included vacant land plots, houses, residential buildings, residential complexes, and hotels. (Source: Mubasher)  Uganda's Finance Minister highlighted the economic opportunities for Qatari investors in the East African nation with benefits of tax relaxations and fast-track licensing procedures. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Abu Dhabi based Al Hamra Group is on the verge to complete the first phase of worth AED 390.0mn (USD 106.0mn) expansion of Manar Mall in Ras Al Khaimah. (Source: Arabian Business) Qatar’s real estate market is about to receive an estimated 5,800 new homes which includes apartments in 5 buildings at United Development Company's flagship project The Pearl and 10 buildings in Lusail, ValuStrat said. (Source: GDN online)  Abu Dhabi's economy is showing signs of recovery on the back of heavy government spending and is expecting its GDP to grow by 3.0% in 2017 and 4.0% in 2018. The GDP grew at a CAGR of 4.1% during 2012-16, according to undersecretary of the Department of Economic Development. (Source: Zawya) Al Meera Consumer Good’s Supply Chain Department has been awarded with ISO 9001:2015 certificate by Bureau Veritas Certification Holding SAS – UK for commitment to quality, best practices and high standards across its various operations. (Source: EPR Retail News)  Qatar Stock Exchange announced trading suspension on Ezdan Holding Group Company on 24th May-17 due to its EGM being held on the day. (Source: QSE) (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai based Damac Properties has sealed a 3 year e-tendering agreement with professional e-tendering platform ProTenders.com to streamline its tendering activities and allowing it to manage multiple tenders in real-time using its unique cloud-based technology. (Source: Trade Arabia)   OPEC might extend oil production cuts for another 9 months as the major oil producer in Saudi Arabia and Iraq seek to speed up market rebalancing and prevent oil prices from sliding back to USD 50.0 per barrel, respective countries ministers and delegates said. (Source: Gulf  (Source: Reuters)  Abu Dhabi International Airport saw a 5.6% YoY increase in airport traffic to 2.0mn passengers in April-17. This included increase in total arrivals by 6.6% YoY and total departures increased by 5.8% YoY. 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 24 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1213 USD/QAR 3.6415 111.7800 EUR/QAR 4.0832 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2991 JPY/QAR 0.0326 USD/CHF 0.9760 GBP/QAR 4.7307 USD/CAD 1.3514 CHF/QAR 3.7310 AUD/USD 0.7478 CAD/QAR 2.6946 NZD/USD 0.7012 AUD/QAR 2.7231 USD/INR 64.3900 INR/QAR 0.0566 USD/TRY 3.5746 TRY/QAR 1.0187 USD/ZAR 13.0803 ZAR/QAR 0.2784 USD/BRL 3.2702 BRL/QAR 1.1135 FX Commentary The USD rose on Tuesday, as investors shifted their focus to the possibilities of a rate hike in the US Federal Reserve’s June meeting and also to the President Trump’s maiden budget proposal. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major rivals, was up 0.43%, after hitting sixmonth low on Monday. GBP extended its losses against the greenback, following a suicide bombing at a concert in Manchester. EUR also fell against the USD in response to the terror attack and also as concerns over Brexit continue to weigh over the common currency. Upbeat Eurozone manufacturing activity data did little to support the currency. Strengthening oil prices continued to support the CAD against the greenback. Gains in the CAD were also driven by higher Canadian wholesale sales data for March ’17. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.93 0.95 1.03 1.19 1.73 (0.43) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.13) QAIBOR 1.40 1.51 1.69 1.95 2.70 SAIBOR NA 1.09 1.27 1.72 2.20 EIBOR 0.70 0.87 1.08 1.49 2.17 BMIBOR 0.83 1.03 1.50 1.83 2.53 NA NA 1.38 1.63 2.13 LIBOR EURIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.0% 2.51% 2.80% 3.10% 1.83% 2.09% 2.28% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 4.30% 1.74% 2.0% 1.32% 2.94% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 21.8 (7.2) Turkey 204.4 UK 24.4 (12.6) Brazil 243.0 (64.0) Germany 14.7 (8.1) Egypt 335.0 (116.2) 2.0% 1.54% 2.22% 2.05% 1.90% 2.49% 2.16% 1.0% 1.06% 1.72% 1.53% 1.36% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs France Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change (91.9) 29.3 (10.4) Abu Dhabi 40.5 (29.9) Italy 160.5 (13.4) Bahrain 219.1 (113.0) Greece 634.9 (291.0) Dubai 105.8 (54.8) Russia 149.6 (81.7) Qatar 60.8 (29.7) Japan 25.2 (7.8) Saudi Arabia 93.1 6.6 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 09:00 Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Period Survey Jun 10.2 14:00 US 16:00 Russia Prior 10.2 MBA Mortgage Applications May-19th - (4.10%) CPI WoW May-22nd - 0.10% May-22nd 16:00 Russia CPI Weekly YTD - 1.50% 16:00 US FHFA House Price Index MoM Mar 0.50% 0.80% 17:00 Canada Bank of Canada Rate Decision May-24th 0.50% 0.50% 17:00 US Existing Home Sales Apr 5.65m 5.71m 17:00 US Existing Home Sales MoM Apr (1.10%) 4.40% 02:50 Japan Japan Buying Foreign Bonds May-19th - 1,821.2b 02:50 Japan Foreign Buying Japan Bonds May-19th - 395.4b 02:50 Japan Foreign Buying Japan Stocks May-19th - 372.2b Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Gulf Petroleum Investment NA NA NA (2.3) NM NM Unicap Investment NA NA NA 0.6 58.3 NA Zima Holding Co NA NA NA 0.0 (21.1) NA Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 24 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 2.9 0.0 0.0 9.7 1.5 5.2 4.5 3.0 0.0 4.7 6.6 2.2 5.4 3.2 5.2 3.2 5.8 3.2 5.3 0.0 7.8 5.7 6.0 5.2 4.6 4.2 3.8 4.2 3.6 1.7 7.0 5.1 3.9 3.1 3.7 1.6 3.9 5.4 2.2 7.3 3.2 0.0 6.6 4.4 3.3 N/A (‫)غ‬ 2.7 3.1 5.3 5.2 4.9 3.6 P/B Ratio (x) 1.4 0.7 2.7 0.9 2.7 0.9 2.8 0.8 0.9 1.8 1.5 2.2 1.0 1.8 1.4 2.8 2.5 1.5 1.9 1.4 0.7 4.2 0.7 1.7 1.0 1.2 2.0 1.3 2.9 2.9 1.4 1.6 1.8 0.9 0.8 2.4 0.5 3.1 1.5 0.8 1.3 1.0 0.6 1.0 1.6 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.9 2.0 1.3 0.6 0.9 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 10.4 41.0 52.8 7.5 71.9 12.1 16.3 (H) (‫)م‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.8 11.5 10.3 26.2 11.7 7.0 38.4 16.3 50.8 14.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.5 11.8 6.0 12.9 18.5 (H) (‫)م‬ 19.9 18.1 15.0 25.3 10.2 10.8 18.5 38.3 10.5 19.2 16.4 15.1 18.2 9.3 18.9 26.6 11.4 14.7 17.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 21.9 14.3 11.7 13.1 12.5 14.1 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.8 0.5 4.1 0.9 1.2 2.7 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 9.4 5.3 13.8 0.4 5.6 11.0 2.5 9.5 0.6 8.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.9 5.3 12.6 5.4 0.7 0.0 5.3 0.8 14.0 2.3 4.2 6.7 2.4 0.5 1.6 3.7 2.4 4.3 3.0 3.7 0.8 0.5 1.7 1.2 5.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.6 3.6 1.6 5.2 2.4 3.0 BV/Share (QR) 24.2 42.0 9.2 34.9 24.4 16.7 15.6 20.1 9.0 57.9 39.2 65.1 9.6 36.6 54.5 33.9 63.0 20.9 65.8 6.4 14.0 14.5 112.9 41.5 12.7 19.5 52.9 10.9 72.3 20.1 30.9 44.8 23.9 20.9 21.3 29.2 71.6 21.0 35.7 45.6 11.7 12.6 30.2 17.4 68.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 18.8 25.2 14.7 122.0 32.4 26.6 Stock Price (QR) 33.0 30.8 25.0 30.9 65.9 14.5 44.2 16.7 8.1 101.5 60.5 142.0 9.3 76.7 94.0 154.9 31.0 122.3 9.1 10.3 61.7 75.5 13.2 24.0 104.8 14.3 211.0 58.4 42.9 71.8 19.5 16.3 70.0 39.0 64.3 34.1 15.5 12.2 19.1 106.1 9.0 51.3 19.0 68.0 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4