دولة الإمارات العربية المتحدة- ورشة عمل عرض كتاب: Breaking the Oil Spell - مايو 2016

Transcription

3. A Talk on Diversification Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov International Monetary Fund Central Bank of the UAE May 23 , 2016 DISCLAIMER: THE VIEWS EXPRESSED HEREIN ARE THOSE OF THE AUTHORS AND SHOULD NOT BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE IMF, ITS EXECUTIVE BOARD, OR ITS MANAGEMENT.
4. Avoiding Another Large and Lasting Decline in Welfare … Real Consumption per capita and Real Oil Price, 1980–2010 115 50 45 110 40 Average NFA/GDP: 3 percent in 1980 vs. 54 percent in 2006 Index (1980=100) 35 100 30 95 25 20 90 15 85 10 80 Real Consumption Per Capita (PPP) Real Oil Price (RHS) 75 5 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Constant (1982-84) $/barrel 105
5. …and Reversing Relative Income Decline 400,000 350,000 GDP Per Worker (PPP $), 1970–2010 400,000 Bahrain Kuwait 350,000 300,000 Oman Qatar 300,000 250,000 Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates 250,000 200,000 200,000 150,000 150,000 100,000 100,000 50,000 50,000 0 0 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
6. The Current Model Relies Heavily on Oil Average Oil Exports (% Exports) 100 1980s 1990s 2000s 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 1/ U.A.E. Goods and Services exports excludes re-exports.
7. The GCC Achieved Large Improvements in HDI and Living Standards 80 GCC Life Expectancy , 1980–2012 (Years) 80 75 75 70 GCC Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates 65 60 55 70 65 60 55 1980 1990 2000 2012
8. Yet Export Sophistication Has Not Improved Goods Export Sophistication : 1976–2006 14000 13000 12000 11000 Oman Saudi Arabia U.A.E. 13000 Indonesia Malaysia 12000 Mexico 10000 Constant $ 14000 Kuwait 11000 10000 9000 9000 8000 8000 7000 7000 6000 6000 5000 5000 4000 4000 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006
9. GCC Countries Have Attempted to Diversify Their Economies • Development of petrochemical and metal industries bear little linkages to the rest of the economy • Promotion of services helped diversify economies but services may not be sufficient for sustainable growth – Focus on tourism, logistics, finance, etc. • Recent attempts at creating clusters, technology parks, and manufacturing industries in free zones have yet to yield substantial results
10. Standard Growth Policy Advice May Not Be Enough • The Gulf countries have had high rankings in infrastructure, doing business, competitiveness, and trade barriers indicators, but sustained growth per capita has not materialized • Standard growth policy advice may not be sufficient – it includes macroeconomic stability, minimum state intervention and an enabling environment conducive to investment in both physical and human capital
11. Tackling “Government Failures” I Doing Business vs. Global Competitiveness Index, 2013 Singapore 0 Saudi Arabia U.A.E Ease of Doing Business (Ranking among 183 countries) 20 40 Bahrain Oman Qatar 60 80 100 Kuwait 120 140 160 180 200 140 120 100 80 60 Global Competitiveness Index (Ranking among 134 countries) 40 20 0
12. Tackling “Government Failures” II Quality of Infrastructure, 2013 (Score of 7 "meets the highest standards in the world") 7 U.A.E. 6 Bahrain Qatar Saudi Arabia 5 USA Score Kuwait 4 3 2 1 $500 $5,000 $50,000 GDP per capita
13. Tackling “Government Failures” III Monopoly Related Indicators (Rank 1 - 142, the lower rank the better) 180 Local competition intensity 180 Prevalence of trade barriers 140 140 100 100 60 60 20 20 Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia U.A.E. Chile Malaysia Mexico Indonesia Norway -20 -20 Sources: The World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Indicators (2013-14).
14. Tackling “Government Failures” IV Burden of customs procedures 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia U.A.E. Chile Malaysia Mexico Indonesia Norway Source: The World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Indicators (2013-14). 0
15. Norway : Falling Prey to Dutch Disease • In 2012, manufacturing hourly wages were the highest in the world and about double that of the US or Japan • Unit labor costs increased by 50 percent in the 2000s, whereas they declined in Germany and Sweden • Annual average hours per worker declined by 600 hours since 1960 to about 1400 hours in 2012, third lowest in OECD
16. The Norwegian Disease : Norway Experienced Decline in Export Sophistication Goods Export Sophistication, 1976-2006 16000 16000 Canada Denmark Malaysia Norway 14000 14000 12000 12000 10000 10000 8000 8000 6000 6000 4000 4000 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
17. Breaking the Oil Spell • High scores in infrastructure quality and other business quality indicators in the GCC are better than in successful oil exporters • Norway could not escape Dutch disease although government failures are basically nonexistent there • Firms choose to produce non-tradables over tradables because of risk-return trade-off largely favoring non-tradables • The standard growth recipe consists in tackling “government failures” rather than “market failures” • Diversification requires the leading hand of the state to create a dynamic export sector
18. Non-Oil GDP is a Misleading Indicator Bahrain - GDP by Sector , 1990–2011 120 Singapore - GDP by Sector, 1990–2011 (Share of total) Agriculture Construction Transport Trade Manufacturing Mining (Share of total) 120 120 100 100 Agriculture Trade Other Other 100 Construction Manufacturing 120 Transport Mining 100 80 80 80 80 60 60 60 60 40 40 40 40 20 20 20 20 0 0 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 0 0 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
19. It Is All About Exports Bahrain , Top 50 Exports of Goods, 2008 (Percent of total exports of goods) 1.1% 0.8% 1.5% 1.3% 6.2% Singapore Exports by Sector, 2008 (Percent of total exports of goods) Oil 1% Oil exports 9.9% Food 24% Aluminum Crude Materials 79.1% Other Metals Chemical products Chemical 2% Food Processing 1% 10% Textiles Other Light Industry 51% 11% Manufactured Goods Machinery & Transport Equipment Others
20. Creating a Dynamic Export Sector • Export orientation vs. import substitution/non-tradables • Domestic capabilities vs. portfolio diversification (e.g. Norway in the 1970s vs. petrochemicals/metals) • Sophisticated exports vs. agriculture and services such as tourism and finance • Beyond vs. within comparative advantage (e.g. Korea/Malaysia vs. Chile)