GCC Daily Market Update - 21 April

Transcription

1. April 21 , 2020 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) MSCI GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,823.2 23,650.4 8,726.5 5,812.8 10,675.9 4,528.3 98,945.9 19,669.1 24,330.0 2,852.6 31,648.0 (51.4) (592.1) (105.9) 25.9 50.1 29.3 766.1 (228.1) (50.0) 14.1 59.3 (1.8) (2.4) (1.2) 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 (1.2) (0.2) 0.5 0.2 9.2 7.9 11.7 2.5 7.4 3.0 10.4 4.0 3.1 3.7 7.4 (12.6) (17.1) (0.1) (22.9) (19.4) (24.3) (13.5) (16.9) (13.7) (6.5) (23.3) 8,444.9 6,601.1 3,969.1 1,887.5 4,797.7 3,483.9 1,319.0 438.5 3,898.6 (171.5) (77.4) (114.5) (27.1) (12.7) (16.6) (1.2) (7.3) (34.6) (2.0) (1.2) (2.8) (1.4) (0.3) (0.5) (0.1) (1.6) (0.9) 2.9 1.5 6.3 6.6 (0.5) 1.0 (2.3) 2.0 9.1 (19.0) (21.3) (21.8) (31.7) (23.6) (12.5) (18.1) (23.0) (9.7) (2.5) (8.9) (55.9) (306.0) 0.2 9.8 12.4 0.7 (2.5) (1.0) 12.0 (93.3) 18.4 7.5 2.0 (61.4) (97.7) (11.3) 11.7 (18.8) 25.6 (37.6) 1.9 1,701.6 232.0 Global The US markets inched lower yesterday, after WTI oil prices crashed into the negative territory amid storage concerns. Dow Jones Industrial Average underperformed its peer indices, while S&P 500 index dropped 1.8%. Energy shares dropped, tracking losses in oil prices. The Stoxx Europe 600 index increased 0.7% to settle at 335.7. Gains were underpinned by data indicating that coronavirus cases were slowing across the world. Healthcare shares reported notable gains. In Asia, the Japanese benchmark fell by about 1.2%, as investors adopted cautious stance ahead of the beginning of the earnings season for the recently completed quarter. Consumer-linked shares were among the notable losers. The Hang Seng index fell 0.2%, on the back of Technology and Financial shares. GCC GCC markets inched lower yesterday, as oil prices weakened sharply, amid supply glut in global markets. Abu Dhabi’s benchmark underperformed its regional peers. The equity benchmark in Dubai declined 1.4%, on the back of losses in Real Estate and Investment shares. Emirates NBD fell 0.6%, after reporting a decline in its Q1-20 net income. The Saudi Arabian benchmark declined 1.2%. Petrochemical shares dropped, as losses in oil prices weighed on the product prices of the domestic petrochemical shares. Qatar The QE index fell 2.0% yesterday, to settle below the psychological 8,500 mark. Increased selling pressure on the part of foreign institutional investors weighed on the benchmark. Trade turnover and volumes increased on the bourse, with Real Estate, Banking and Consumer goods shares together accounting for more than 72% of the total trading volume. Out of the 47 listed shares, 46 exchanged hands, 31 declined, 14 advanced and 1 remained unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW GCC Fundamentals Qatar All share P/E (x) P/B (x) 13.1 1.3 Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) 4.5 98.1 Qatar DSM Index 11,200 200.0 10,400 DSM 20 12.5 1.2 4.7 79.1 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 18.3 1.6 4.0 824.9 UAE (ADX) 11.1 1.1 6.2 34.9 UAE (DFM) 7.1 0.7 6.6 48.1 Kuwait (KSE) 13.1 1.1 4.4 85.4 Oman (MSM) 7.4 0.7 8.0 1.4 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.4 0.8 6.0 0.6 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Islamic Holding Group Qatar German Co Dlala Holding Medicare Group Al Khaleej Takaful Grp Top Losers Mannai Corporation Qatar Insurance Co Qatari Investors Group Qatar National Bank Barwa Real Estate Co Close Price 1.5 0.7 0.5 6.5 1.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 10.0 9.9 7.1 4.7 4.7 (18.7) 24.1 (11.0) (23.7) (13.5) (32.8) 9.7 (49.4) 1.1 5.5 2.9 2.1 1.2 17.0 2.7 (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) (0.8) (0.1) (5.9) (4.6) (4.3) (4.2) (4.1) (7.1) (34.8) (34.2) (17.7) (25.1) (37.8) 77.3 6.4 (47.2) 2,829.3 12.2 (52.6) 982.3 13.8 (7.4) 4,915.6 12.4 (24.5) 15,463.8 7.2 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 2,833.6 109.3 10,919.7 NA 4,736.2 NA 3,583.0 25.3 1,210.4 14.8 8,444.9 9,600 100.0 8,800 8,000 23/Jan 0.0 6/Feb 20/Feb 5/Mar Index Volume (mn) 19/Mar 2/Apr Index Value 16/Apr Closing Level 3,786.4 6,885.8 2,169.7 2,042.9 1,186.9 770.3 2,314.3 1D Change (%) (2.5) 0.0 (2.5) (2.7) (2.7) (2.3) (0.2) Buy (%) 37.2 23.6 60.7 13.3 26.0 39.3 Sell (%) 24.2 18.2 42.5 12.9 44.6 57.5 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. April 21 , 2020 10.0% of the rental value upon renewal as well as cut in marketing fees by 25.0% and deferral up to 3- months. (Source: Arabian Business) GLOBAL NEWS  The US President said that his administration was considering the possibility of discontinuing incoming Saudi Arabian crude oil shipments as a measure to support the ailing domestic drilling sector.  The number of building permits issued in Abu Dhabi in Q1-20 increased by 10.0% YoY to 2,563, according to a report from the Abu Dhabi Department of Municipalities and Transport. Building permits for residential operations stood at 1,817, accounting for 70.9% of the total number, followed by 280 for commercial purposes and 239 for governmental and public institutions. (Source: Arabian Business)  According to real estate company, Savills, a strong recovery is expected in demand particularly across the office and retail sector in Saudi Arabia during H2-20, provided the current situation is contained and business activity resumes at the earliest. (Source: Arabian Business)  The Governor of Qassim region of Saudi Arabia has launched an initiative worth SAR 250.0mn (USD 66.0mn) in the first phase to help the citizens till the end of the Coronavirus Pandemic. (Source: Arab News)  Saudi Arabia’s Arab Petroleum Investments Corporation (Apicorp) announced that its General Assembly has approved an increase in callable capital to USD 8.5bn from USD 1.0bn. The move will enable the company to fulfil its policy mandate by delivering sustainable impact-driven development projects and supporting investment activities. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlook on Oman Reinsurance Company's Insurer Financial Strength (IFS) Rating to Negative from Stable and affirmed the IFS Rating at 'BBB-' (Good). The Outlook revision reflects the uncertainty and increased risk for the company’s earnings in 2020 on account of the Coronavirus pandemic, along with poor underwriting performance in H2-19. (Source: Fitch Ratings)  Bahrain stated that the nation will cut spending by ministries and government agencies by 30.0% to assist the nation tackle the coronavirus outbreak. The nation will also reschedule some construction and consulting projects to maintain spending within the 2020 budget and make funds available for other spending needs arising due to the Coronavirus pandemic. (Source: Reuters)  The Central Bank of Kuwait issued 3-months bonds and Tawarruq worth KWD 240.0mn (USD 792.0mn) with a return rate of 1.25%. (Source: Reuters)  The US President said that he will suspend all immigration into the US temporarily through an executive order in reaction to the coronavirus outbreak and to safeguard jobs of US citizens. (Source: Reuters)  The US Congress moved toward an USD 450.0bn deal to assist small businesses and hospitals impacted by the coronavirus pandemic, with a session for a potential vote today. (Source: Reuters)  The ECB’s chief supervisor said that the central bank will provide banks sufficient time to return to normal capital and liquidity levels after the coronavirus crisis ends. Though the ECB has stopped banks from paying dividend during the crisis, it does not plan to restrict payments of additional Tier 1 and Tier 2 coupons. (Source: US News)  Bank of England Deputy Governor, Ben Broadbent said that the UK’s economy might be slow to recover once the government relaxes its coronavirus lockdown. Further, the 35.0% decline in the nation’s economy in Q2-20 as per the nation’s budget forecasters is not unrealistic. (Source: US News)  The UK Finance Minister said that the nation’s employers have put over a million staff on temporary leave under the government program which will pay 80.0% of employers’ wage bills until the end of June-20 for staff suspended during the coronavirus lockdown. (Source: Reuters)  Germany’s Bundesbank stated that the nation’s economy is in a deep recession and recovery is not expected to be quick as many coronavirus-related restrictions could remain in place for an extended period until a vaccination is available. (Source: US News)  Fitch Solutions has lowered India’s economic growth forecast for FY 2020-21 to 1.8% from the earlier 4.6%, stating private consumption is likely to decline due to large-scale loss of revenue amid the outbreak of COVID-19. (Source: Financial Express) GCC NEWS  The Governor of Central Bank of UAE (CBUAE) announced that banks in the UAE have used 30.0% of the AED 50.0bn (USD 13.0bn) Targeted Economic Support Scheme (TESS). The scheme was launched on 15th March-20 to help individuals, SMEs and other private businesses impacted by the current coronavirus crisis. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai’s bank Emirates NBD reported a 24.2% YoY decline in Q1-20 net profit to AED 2.1bn (USD 566.0mn), due to higher provisions of USD 700.0mn set aside to cover bad loans amid the coronavirus outbreak. Total Assets increased by 1.2% QoQ to AED 691.7bn (USD 188.3bn). (Source: Kuwait News Agency)  QATAR NEWS  Qatar’s corporate sector’s electronic transactions with the government increased due to high Internet penetration and proactive sovereign policies, indicating the strong and robust e-governance framework in the nation. The tender document e-Payment increased by 51.8% MoM in February-20 with total of 78,324 transactions done through the official portal, as per PSA. (Source: Gulf Times)  Spokesperson for the Supreme Committee for Crisis Management said that gradual opening of the locked down parts of the Industrial Area will start from 22nd April-20. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Nakilat reported 18.3% YoY increase in Q1-20 net profit to QAR 279.5mn (USD 76.2mn). The revenue grew by 13.2% YoY to QAR 1.0bn (USD 0.3bn). (Source: Gulf Times)  Ezdan Holding Group reported a 56.7% YoY decline in Q1-20 net profit to QAR 118.0mn (USD 32.2mn) and the Rental Income declined by 5.0% YoY to QAR 306.3mn (USD 83.5mn). Total assets increased by 1.0% YoY to QAR 48.6bn (USD 13.2bn). (Source: Qatar Stock Exchange) (Source: Reuters)   Dubai-based Emirates Islamic Bank reported a 62.3% YoY decrease in Q1-20 net profit to AED 154.9mn (USD 42.2mn), due to significant impact of COVID-19, combined with low oil prices and negative market sentiment. Total assets declined by 2.9% QoQ to AED 62.9bn (USD 17.1bn). (Source: Trade Arabia) Dubai-based Deyaar Development’s shareholders approved the company’s capital restructuring plans to lower the capital from AED 5.8bn (USD 1.6bn) to AED 4.6bn (USD 1.2bn). The company will write off all accumulated losses existing from more than a decade ago. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai Silicon Oasis Authority (DSOA) announced various incentives to companies, commercial tenants and residents, to ease the impact of COVID-19. These include rent waivers till all retail outlets open, exemption from late payment fines until 31st August-20, discounts of Kuwait’s trade surplus with Japan increased by 112.4% YoY to JPY 47.0bn (USD 436.0mn) in March-20, according to the Kuwait’s Finance Ministry. The growth was driven by Kuwait’s exports to Japan which increased by 69.6% YoY to JPY 65.3bn (USD 605.0mn) as compared to imports from Japan which grew by 11.8% YoY to JPY 18.3bn (USD 170.0mn). (Source: Kuwait News Agency) 2
3. April 21 , 2020 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0892 USD/QAR 3.6415 107.6200 EUR/QAR 3.9663 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2472 JPY/QAR 0.0338 USD/CHF 0.9680 GBP/QAR 4.5417 USD/CAD 1.4149 CHF/QAR 3.7619 AUD/USD 0.6336 CAD/QAR 2.5737 NZD/USD 0.6037 AUD/QAR 2.3073 USD/INR 76.0375 INR/QAR 0.0479 USD/TRY 6.9403 TRY/QAR 0.5247 USD/ZAR 18.8567 ZAR/QAR 0.1931 USD/BRL 5.3162 BRL/QAR 0.6850 FX Commentary The USD inched higher against a basket of major currencies yesterday, with the dollar index settling 0.1% higher at 100.0. The dollar advanced as a sharp decline in oil prices weighed on sentiments and commodity-linked currencies. The GBP weakened against the USD, as death tolls in the UK increased, while the regulators indicated that it was too early to ease lockdown measures in the nation. The CAD inched lower against the USD, as oil prices turned negative. The EUR fell against the USD, after the European Commission allocated more relief funds to Hungary compared to Italy, despite fewer deaths in the former. The JPY dropped against the, as the nation’s exports data trailed market expectations. Among the emerging market currencies, the INR fell, while the TRY strengthened agains the USD. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.07 0.18 0.67 1.11 0.98 (0.57) (0.52) (0.43) (0.24) (0.11) LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year QAIBOR 1.03 1.11 1.16 1.25 1.39 SAIBOR NA 0.71 1.01 1.23 1.23 EIBOR 0.23 0.42 0.92 1.51 1.64 BMIBOR 0.65 0.90 1.28 1.57 1.95 KIBOR NA NA 1.56 1.75 1.0% -1.0% 2.36% 2.71% 0.20% 0.34% 0.49% 0.61% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US Qatar 5 Years CDS 4.0% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 2.8% 0.8% 0.0% 2 Yrs 3.0% 3.18% 2.19% 3.90% 1.22% 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 0.4% 5.0% 2.25 Source: Bloomberg 2.5% Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 5 Yrs Current 7 Yrs 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change US 26.1 8.8 Turkey 625.8 283.8 UK 40.7 14.4 Brazil 306.7 184.1 Germany 27.6 NA Egypt 636.0 308.6 France 45.7 NA Abu Dhabi 132.9 86.4 Italy 255.3 138.1 Bahrain 474.2 252.4 Greece 284.9 123.7 Dubai 300.7 168.1 Russia 181.3 103.5 Qatar 135.3 88.8 Japan 37.8 14.8 Saudi Arabia 171.7 100.7 Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 9:00 UK Jobless Claims Change Mar -- 17.3k 9:00 UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Feb 3.90% 3.90% 12:00 Germany ZEW Survey Expectations Apr (42) (49.5) 12:00 Germany ZEW Survey Current Situation Apr (77.5) (43.1) Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) Ezdan Holding Group NA NA NA 118.0 (56.7) NA Qatar Gas Transport(Nakilat) NA NA NA 279.2 18.3 1.8 521.4 4.0 (3.6) 180.4 1.7 38.0 (62.9) Al Ahli Bank Islamic Holding Group QoQ (%) NA NA NA 0.3 NA 10,644.0 47.8 (5.3) 2,079.1 (24.2) 2.9 646.3 (27.8) (8.1) 155.0 (62.3) 25.1 Yanbu National Petrochemical NA NA NA 104.5 (73.2) (38.9) Etihad Etisalat Co NA NA NA 130.0 93.3 (204.1) Arriyadh Development Co NA NA NA 35.1 (18.1) 9.6 Emirates Nbd Emirates Islamic Bank Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. April 21 , 2020 th QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 16 April 2020) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Baladna Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed QAMCO Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 4.9 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1 6.0 8.2 0.0 3.5 5.3 3.4 4.7 3.9 0.0 6.5 4.6 5.3 4.0 4.8 0.0 0.0 5.8 5.9 4.7 7.5 0.0 0.0 5.8 3.8 0.2 5.3 4.3 5.7 9.0 5.0 3.1 7.6 6.8 0.0 6.2 5.6 7.1 0.0 0.0 5.1 3.3 4.2 5.5 4.4 4.3 4.7 6.1 5.0 4.2 P/B Ratio (x) 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 2.0 0.4 0.9 2.2 2.0 2.4 0.5 1.9 1.0 0.5 1.7 2.2 1.1 2.0 2.3 0.3 2.7 2.2 1.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 1.2 1.5 0.6 1.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.9 0.4 2.4 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.5 1.3 0.4 0.8 1.3 P/E Ratio (x) 10.6 7.8 (M) (ç) 7.9 (H) (ç) 6.8 12.8 12.5 (M) (ç) 11.6 13.2 11.4 15.7 11.3 (M) (ç) 7.0 21.8 17.2 24.8 14.9 (M) (ç) (M) (ç) 11.9 16.2 17.4 10.4 52.9 5.9 16.1 19.4 41.8 11.4 10.8 10.4 13.6 15.6 14.2 10.8 11.0 (M) (ç) 12.5 32.4 7.3 45.4 19.1 8.3 12.8 11.1 26.8 12.3 11.0 11.9 10.3 11.3 12.5 EPS (QR) 0.3 0.5 (M) (ç) 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 (M) (ç) 1.3 0.6 1.6 0.0 0.7 (M) (ç) 0.4 0.3 0.9 0.1 1.1 (M) (ç) (M) (ç) 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 (M) (ç) 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 BV/Share (QR) 2.6 4.4 0.7 3.0 2.4 1.7 1.9 1.4 1.0 6.9 4.0 7.3 1.0 4.1 1.0 5.7 3.6 7.2 2.3 8.5 0.3 1.0 1.9 6.5 3.4 1.3 1.9 1.0 5.7 1.2 1.0 9.1 2.3 3.4 4.5 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.6 5.8 2.5 3.1 5.1 1.2 1.1 3.1 1.8 7.2 1.1 3.7 3.1 1.7 12.7 3.6 2.9 Stock Price (QR) 3.1 3.9 0.5 1.9 1.4 1.2 3.7 0.6 0.9 15.1 8.1 17.7 0.4 1.0 3.1 6.1 16.0 2.5 16.7 0.6 0.3 5.2 14.5 0.5 1.2 0.4 6.9 1.8 0.6 14.6 1.3 2.7 3.3 1.6 1.1 2.2 2.0 6.1 2.8 0.5 0.5 1.0 6.0 0.9 4.7 2.2 4.9 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫قامكو‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above-mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4