GCC Daily Market Update - 2 May

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 2 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,388.3 20,913.5 5,629.6 7,203.9 12,438.0 5,267.3 94,655.3 19,310.5 24,615.1 3,154.7 29,918.4 4.1 (27.1) 46.1 NA NA NA NA 113.8 NA NA NA 0.2 (0.1) 0.8 NA NA NA NA 0.6 NA NA NA 0.2 (0.1) 0.8 (1.6) 1.0 2.8 6.4 0.6 2.1 (2.1) 1.0 6.7 5.8 15.7 0.9 8.3 8.3 21.1 1.0 11.9 1.6 12.4 10,110.5 7,003.7 4,558.1 3,440.6 6,793.1 5,528.7 1,335.7 1,626.6 3,194.0 46.1 (9.7) 35.5 25.7 (50.0) 15.2 NA 0.2 7.2 0.5 (0.1) 0.8 0.8 (0.7) 0.3 NA (0.9) 0.2 0.5 (0.1) 0.8 0.8 (0.7) 0.3 (1.5) (0.9) 0.2 (3.1) (2.9) 0.3 (2.6) 18.2 (4.4) 9.4 3.9 10.0 51.5 48.8 3.2 1,255.5 265.0 (0.2) (0.5) (0.1) (12.8) 5.4 (0.5) (1.2) (1.6) (1.0) 1.2 (0.5) (1.2) (1.6) (1.0) 1.2 (9.4) (9.3) (13.4) 9.0 4.9 Source: Bloomberg Global US stocks edged higher on Monday, with Nasdaq outperforming other major indices, following strong gains in Apple and other large technology companies, which are scheduled to report earnings this week. However, weak macroeconomic data, which included slowing US manufacturing activity and a drop in inflation for the first time since 2001, weighed on investor sentiments, thereby capping gains. Defensive stocks like Utility, Telecom and Consumer Staples closed lower amidst increase in treasury yields. Most equity markets in Europe and developing economies such as China and India were closed due to International Workers’ Day. Japan’s benchmark gained in a quiet session, as Yen lost against the greenback. GCC Gulf bourses closed on a mixed note on Monday. Dubai’s benchmark added 0.8%, majorly buoyed by Amanat Holdings, which rose 4.5% and accounted for 40% of Dubai's market volume. The low-priced stock, which is sometimes the target of short-term speculation, will go ex-dividend on 4th May-17. In Abu Dhabi, the index gained 0.8% as Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank added 1.5%, on back of higher than expected Q1-17 results. The Saudi Arabian index edged down 0.1% as Saudi Kayan Petrochemical, which had soared to its 10% daily limit on Sunday after reporting better-thanexpected quarterly earnings, fell back 4.1% on profit booking. Qatar QE index added 0.5% on Monday, majorly buoyed by real estate firm Ezdan Holdings, which jumped 6.0% after reporting a 62% surge in first-quarter net profit. The gains were however, capped as index major, Industries Qatar retreated 1.3%. Local and non-Qatari retail investors turned bullish on the bourse, with buying interest largely skewed towards real estate segment. Trade turnover and volumes declined on the bourse, where Telecom, Realty and Banking sectors together accounted for more than 82% of the total volumes. Out of 44 stocks listed, 42 exchanged hands, of which 17 advanced, 19 declined and 6 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 14.9 1.5 3.7 57.3 11,000 DSM 20 15.2 1.5 3.8 43.4 10,500 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 16.9 1.6 3.2 986.7 UAE (ADX) 17.0 1.3 4.4 32.8 UAE (DFM) 14.8 1.3 4.2 141.9 Kuwait (KSE) 23.0 1.3 3.6 37.3 Oman (MSM) 11.3 1.1 5.3 4.0 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 8.1 0.8 5.9 1.3 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Ezdan Holding Group Al Khaleej Takaful Grp National Leasing Islamic Holding Group Medicare Group Top Losers Al Ahli Bank Qatar Islamic Insurance Doha Insurance Co Zad Holding Co Qatar National Cement Close Price 16.0 20.6 17.0 61.4 97.8 0.9 0.6 0.4 1.2 1.9 6.0 2.8 2.1 2.0 2.0 5.8 (2.6) 11.0 0.7 55.5 34.0 60.5 16.5 74.5 74.0 (1.5) (2.3) (0.3) (1.4) (1.2) (4.1) (3.7) (2.0) (1.8) (1.6) (8.5) 19.6 (9.3) (16.5) (5.3) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. (12.6) 2,080.1 19.4 (19.4) 0.2 40.9 (10.0) 425.3 236.6 (7.0) 35.6 66.6 5.2 35.3 39.9 (17.6) (2.7) (19.4) (12.9) (7.4) 1.2 1.5 52.0 0.1 55.3 10.7 14.2 10.7 9.7 11.1 Qatar DSM Index 60.0 10,110.5 20.0 10,000 9,500 6/Feb 40.0 20/Feb 6/Mar 20/Mar Index Volume (mn) 3/Apr 17/Apr 0.0 1/May Index Value Closing Level 2,971.3 6,083.3 3,126.1 4,254.2 2,423.0 1,262.6 2,171.4 1D Change (%) (0.9) 0.4 (0.6) (0.3) 4.2 0.2 (0.3) Buy (%) 49.4 19.6 69.1 14.1 16.8 30.9 Sell (%) 42.2 18.5 60.7 10.6 28.7 39.3 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 2 , 2017 GLOBAL NEWS  Bank of Sharjah reported a decline in its net profit by 28% YoY to AED 58.0mn in Q1-17 due to decline in the market value of strategic investments by AED 21.0mn, which is expected to be recovered during 2017. (Source: Gulf Base)  US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to extend offshore oil and gas drilling to areas that have been previously off limits. (Source: Reuters)   US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that economic growth of 3.0% is achievable in the next two years as the Trump administration sets out to dramatically cut taxes. (Source: Reuters) Saudi Aramco plans to launch its overhauled Muajjiz oil terminal in the Red Sea next year, aiming to lift its total loading and export capacity to 15.0mn barrels per day, a Saudi officials said. (Source: Zawya)   The US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which tracks the value of goods and services purchased by individuals, fell 0.2% in March-17 in its first drop since February-16 and its biggest decline since January-15. (Source: Reuters) HSBC Holdings Plc’s Saudi Arabia branch is set to strengthen its position by entering into potential merger of its local venture with Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc’s, which will create an entity with AED 286.0bn (USD 78.0bn) assets. (Source: Gulf News)   The European Union has called on Theresa May to provide immediate “serious and real” guarantees to its citizens living in Britain. The EU leaders agreed unanimously an uncompromising opening stance in the Brexit negotiations. (Source: The Guardian) Saudi Arabia’s General Authority of Civil Aviation has awarded Singapore’s Changi Airport Group to operate the King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah upto 20 years. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi National Industrial Clusters Development Program has inked a co-operation deal with German companies Siemens and SAP to play an important role in furthering the kingdom's "digital transformation".  Greece and its foreign creditors reached a deal on bailout reforms, which includes pensions cut in 2019 and a cut in tax-free threshold in 2020 to produce savings worth 2% of GDP. (Source: Reuters)  China's overall leverage level is reasonable but is rising at an alarming pace, especially in the financial sector, said Head of the People's Bank of China. (Source: Reuters)  Australian central bank kept interest rates unchanged on back of higher inflation and expected higher commodity prices which would boost Australia’s national income. (Source: Bloomberg)  Turkey’s central bank raised its inflation forecasts for 2017 to 8.5% citing an upward revision of lira-denominated import prices and the output gap along with higher-than projected inflation in Q1-17 and an upward trend in the inflation rate.. (Source: Gulf Today) GCC NEWS  Dubai based Airolink won new projects worth AED 2.8bn (USD 760.0mn) in Q1-17, across the region which increased total order book value to AED 4.4bn (USD 1.2bn), according to company’s statement. (Source: Gulf Base)  Saudi Arabia’s Alawwal Bank has roughly doubled its market share within retail banking to 3%–5% due to its expansion in the last three years, despite of difficult economic environment, its Chief Executive said. (Source: Reuters)  Oman based Bank Sohar reported 43.9% YoY increase in net profit to OMR 5.99mn in Q1-17. (Source: Gulf Base)  Bahrain based Zain Bahrain reported a decline in its net profit by 45% YoY to BHD 503,000 (USD 1.30mn) in Q1-17. (Source: Gulf Base)  Kuwait based Al Ahli Bank reported a 10% YoY growth in its net profit to KWD 8.5mn in Q1-17. Operating profit grew by 7.3% YoY to KWD 23.7mn in Q1-17. (Source: Kuwait Times) QATAR NEWS  Qatar is giving final touches to the new public private partnership law, which will provide a sound legal framework for the multi-billion dollar projects that are being planned, thereby boosting FDI, said adviser to the Ministry of Economy and Commerce (MEC). (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar’s real estate sector is still showing a signs of firmness and consistency amid the repercussions and consequences of the oil price drop, said SAK Holding Group in its April-2017 monthly report. (Source: (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai based Expo 2020 is expected to award construction contracts worth USD 544.0mn to SME sector across the region as part of its plans for a long lasting economic legacy. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai based Deyaar Development’s net profits for Q1-17 declined by 37.25% YoY to AED 32.0mn due to the write back of provision for impairment of investment of an associate. But its revenue increased by 136% YoY to AED 142.0mn in Q1-17 as revenue from property reached AED 110.0mn. (Source: Gulf Base) Gulf Times)  The Telecommunications Regulatory Authority announced that the second phase of the regulation for reducing roaming prices between the GCC countries has come into force. (Source: QNA)   Dubai Land Department has recorded the biggest residential land sale of worth AED 60.0mn by a businessman, Kamel Alzarka, to an eminent Emirati which had an area of 120,000 sq. ft. (Source: Gulf Base) Qatar foreign merchandise trade surplus increased 70.7% YoY in March-17 to QAR 9.9bn. Total exports amounted to around QAR 19.7bn and imports stood at QAR 9.8bn in March-17. (Source: QNA)   Dubai based Nakheel inked double deal with Hilton to bring 704 new hotel rooms and serviced apartments, which includes a 254 room property at Jumeirah Village Triangle and a letter of intent for a new hotel and serviced apartment complex at Deira Islands. (Source: Arabian Bank of America Merrill Lynch said Qatar may decide in June or September-17 whether to issue an international bond or not and added that enough external financing was raised by the country last year to pre-finance a portion of fiscal needs for 2017. (Source: Gulf Times)  The combined net profit of 43 listed companies on QSE decreased by 1.0% YoY in Q1-17 to QAR 10.7bn from QAR 10.8bn reported in Q1-16, Vodafone Qatar was not included as its financial year starts from 1st April. (Source: QSE)  Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company (MPHC) has reported a net profit of QAR 212.3mn for Q1-17. (Source: The Peninsula)  Ezdan Holding Group has reported 61.5% YoY increase in net profit to QAR 946.0mn in Q1-17. EPS rose to QAR 0.36 compared to QAR 0.22 in the same period of 2016. (Source: The Peninsula) Business)  Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) has signed MoU with Dubai’s economic department to allow companies operating within DIFC to obtain dual licenses to operate in mainland Dubai. (Source: Zawya)  Dubai apartments and villa rents declined by 8% YoY in Q1-17, as tenants remained budget conscious and they are also taking advantage of additional supply and competitive rates. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank’s net profit for Q-17 increased by 8% YoY to AED 1.1bn due to gains in net interest and Islamic financing income and tight control over expenses. (Source: Gulf Base) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 2 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0929 USD/QAR 3.6414 111.8400 EUR/QAR 3.9797 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2916 JPY/QAR 0.0326 USD/CHF 0.9963 GBP/QAR 4.7032 USD/CAD 1.3681 CHF/QAR 3.6549 AUD/USD 0.7526 CAD/QAR 2.6616 NZD/USD 0.6907 AUD/QAR 2.7405 USD/INR 63.7462 INR/QAR 0.0571 USD/TRY 3.5543 TRY/QAR 1.0245 USD/ZAR 13.4121 ZAR/QAR 0.2715 USD/BRL 3.1768 BRL/QAR 1.1462 FX Commentary The USD retreated against a basket on major currencies in early trade after data showed weakness in US factory activity, while inflation numbers came in below Fed’s comfort levels. The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy slipped 0.1% in March-17, the first and largest drop since September-01, while national factory activity dropped to 54.8 last month, the weakest reading since December-16. The USD however, pared losses and closed 0.05% higher against a basket on major currencies as investors shrugged off the weak data and still maintained a 70% probability on June rate hike. Bullish comments from US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin further supported the greenback. CAD weakened against USD as oil prices fell. Trading was thin as several markets across Asia and Europe were closed for the May Day holiday. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.93 0.95 1.00 1.17 1.77 (0.42) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.12) QAIBOR 1.48 1.53 1.72 2.03 2.75 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.09 1.29 1.73 2.21 2.0% EIBOR 0.74 0.85 1.09 1.47 2.14 BMIBOR 0.83 1.03 1.50 1.85 2.53 NA NA 1.38 1.63 2.13 LIBOR EURIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 1.83% 1.28% 0.0% 2 Yrs 2.58% 2.87% 3.16% 1.84% 2.13% 2.32% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 5 Yrs Qatar 4.34% 3.01% 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 24.8 1.3 Turkey 210.1 UK 26.8 (12.2) Brazil 217.2 (70.5) Germany 17.0 (2.1) Egypt 345.0 (130.6) 1.96% 2.0% 2.56% 1.58% 2.26% 1.0% 0.0% 2.29% 2.12% 0.93% 2 Yrs 1.76% 1.51% 1.30% 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs France Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change (54.8) 33.6 3.7 Abu Dhabi 40.9 (25.6) Italy 168.7 18.6 Bahrain 222.4 (137.4) Greece 872.0 (111.1) Dubai 111.7 (39.6) Russia 153.6 (85.2) Qatar 58.9 (30.7) Japan 25.6 (7.7) Saudi Arabia 86.8 (46.6) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 10:50 France Markit France Manufacturing PMI Apr F 55.1 55.1 10:55 Germany Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI Apr F 58.2 58.2 11:30 UK Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Apr 54 54.2 12:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate Mar 9.40% 9.50% Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) QGMD NA NA NA (2.2) 7.2 (57.2) Qatar Fuel Qsc NA NA NA 176.5 (27.3) 66.4 Mazaya Qatar NA NA NA 5.0 (81.2) 721.7 Al Khaleej Takaful Group NA NA NA 13.9 (2.1) (361.2) Salam intl. Investment 747.8 (1.1) (8.6) 20.4 (36.5) (53.7) National Leasing NA NA NA 0.7 (66.4) 531.0 Zad Holding Co NA NA NA 49.3 (4.7) 100.2 Ezdan Holding Group NA NA NA 946.0 61.5 82.1 Qatar Industrial Manufacturing NA NA NA 60.4 10.1 96.8 Mesaieed Petrochem. Holding NA NA NA 212.0 (0.2) (23.9) Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 2 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 2.8 0.0 0.0 9.5 1.6 5.1 4.8 2.9 0.0 4.8 6.5 2.2 5.2 3.2 5.1 3.1 5.8 2.8 5.1 0.0 7.7 5.6 6.0 5.1 4.5 3.9 3.9 4.1 3.6 1.8 6.7 4.9 3.9 2.9 3.6 1.6 3.8 5.8 2.2 7.3 3.1 0.0 6.5 4.3 3.4 N/A (‫)غ‬ 2.7 3.1 5.1 5.0 4.8 3.6 P/B Ratio (x) 1.4 0.7 2.8 0.9 2.5 0.9 2.7 0.9 0.9 1.7 1.6 2.2 1.0 1.8 1.4 2.9 2.5 1.7 1.9 1.5 0.7 4.3 0.7 1.7 1.0 1.3 2.0 1.4 2.9 2.9 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.0 0.8 2.4 0.6 2.9 1.5 0.8 1.4 1.0 0.6 1.1 1.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.9 2.1 1.4 0.6 0.9 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 10.7 39.7 53.7 7.7 67.0 12.4 15.4 (H) (‫)م‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.6 11.7 10.4 26.9 11.6 7.2 40.0 16.4 58.9 15.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.6 12.0 5.9 13.2 18.7 (H) (‫)م‬ 19.7 18.7 14.9 24.8 10.7 11.1 18.5 40.4 10.7 19.2 16.4 14.2 18.2 9.3 19.5 28.0 11.4 15.1 17.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 21.7 14.5 12.1 13.4 12.9 14.2 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.8 0.5 4.1 0.9 1.2 2.7 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 9.4 5.3 13.8 0.4 5.6 11.0 2.5 9.5 0.6 8.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.9 5.3 12.6 5.4 0.7 0.0 5.3 0.8 14.0 2.3 4.2 6.7 2.4 0.5 1.6 3.7 2.4 4.3 3.0 3.7 0.8 0.5 1.7 1.2 5.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.6 3.6 1.6 5.2 2.4 3.0 BV/Share (QR) 24.2 42.0 9.2 34.9 24.4 16.7 15.6 20.1 9.0 57.9 39.2 65.1 9.6 36.6 54.5 33.9 63.0 20.9 65.8 6.4 14.0 14.5 112.9 41.5 12.7 19.5 52.9 10.9 72.3 20.1 30.9 44.8 23.9 20.9 21.3 29.2 71.6 21.0 35.7 45.6 11.7 12.6 30.2 17.4 68.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 18.8 25.2 14.7 122.0 32.4 26.6 Stock Price (QR) 34.0 29.8 25.5 31.6 61.4 14.8 41.9 17.0 8.5 99.4 61.8 142.5 9.5 78.4 97.8 156.0 35.9 125.0 9.4 10.4 63.0 74.5 13.3 25.7 103.7 14.8 208.6 57.3 44.7 74.0 20.6 16.5 70.0 39.1 60.5 34.3 16.0 12.8 19.2 103.9 9.4 52.0 19.8 69.7 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4