GCC Daily Market Update - 19 December

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE December 19 , 2018 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,546.2 23,675.6 6,491.5 6,701.6 10,740.9 4,754.1 91,074.1 21,115.5 25,814.3 2,576.6 36,347.1 0.2 82.7 43.1 (71.7) (31.3) (45.8) 1,112.2 (391.4) (273.7) (21.3) 77.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 (1.1) (0.3) (1.0) 1.2 (1.8) (1.1) (0.8) 0.2 (7.8) (7.3) (6.6) (4.0) (4.6) (5.0) (4.6) (5.5) (2.6) (0.4) 0.4 (4.8) (4.2) 1.5 (12.8) (16.9) (10.5) (21.0) (7.2) (13.7) (22.1) 6.7 10,489.0 7,943.4 4,828.7 2,511.1 5,130.8 4,379.5 1,314.3 1,795.3 3,366.1 NA (24.9) (37.2) (52.6) (31.8) (28.7) (5.1) 3.4 (5.4) NA (0.3) (0.8) (2.1) (0.6) (0.7) (0.4) 0.2 (0.2) 1.2 3.1 1.2 (5.9) 0.4 (0.7) (1.1) 1.3 (6.2) 23.1 9.9 9.8 (25.5) 6.2 (14.1) (1.3) 12.0 (7.4) 56.3 46.2 3.8 1,249.2 267.1 (3.4) (3.6) 0.3 1.8 (8.2) (5.6) (7.3) 8.8 0.1 (3.0) (3.7) (8.9) (17.8) 2.4 (3.3) (15.5) (23.2) 28.3 (4.6) (18.6) Global The US stocks ended higher yesterday, as investors awaited for the US Fed interest rate policy announcement. However, gains were limited due to losses in Energy stocks after a steep drop in oil prices. Also, uncertainty of US-China trade tensions lingered. The Stoxx Europe 600 index ended lower yesterday by 0.1% at 342.8, with almost all the sectors ending in negative territory. Also, losses in Oil and Energy stocks weighted on the benchmark. The UK’s FTSE 100 index ended lower, as investors awaited for the start of the two Federal Open Market Committee meeting in the US. In Asia, the Japanese benchmark ended lower, amid growing concerns about slowing global growth led to the decline in cyclical stocks. The Chinese benchmark also ended lower, after the speech of China’s President who offered no specific measures to support the Chinese economy. GCC GCC equity markets ended lower yesterday. The Saudi Arabian Index inched 0.3% lower. Etihad Etisalat fell by 2.1%, after disclosing its new system of royalty payments to the government. The Abu Dhabi Index ended lower by 0.8%, due to losses in Banking and Energy stocks. In Dubai, the benchmark declined sharply by 2.1%, due to heavy losses in Real Estate stocks, after the inflation data showed housing and utility costs falling by 4.7% YoY. Also, losses in Energy stocks, due to drop in oil prices weighted on the benchmark. Qatar Qatar market were closed on account of a National holiday. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 15.8 1.5 3.8 57.1 DSM 20 15.5 1.6 4.2 50.2 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.1 1.8 3.5 823.8 UAE (ADX) 13.1 1.4 5.0 40.6 9,800 UAE (DFM) 8.5 0.9 7.0 38.5 9,400 23/Sep GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Kuwait (KSE) 15.3 1.2 3.8 98.7 Oman (MSM) 10.3 0.8 5.9 1.6 Bahrain (BAX) 8.9 0.8 6.2 0.6 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers NA NA NA NA NA Top Losers NA NA NA NA NA Close Price NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 11,000 10,489.0 10,600 10,200 40.0 20.0 7/Oct 21/Oct 4/Nov Index Volume (mn) 18/Nov 2/Dec 0.0 16/Dec Index Value Source: Bloomberg QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Closing Level 3,879.9 6,738.3 3,301.5 3,114.5 2,118.0 1,028.8 2,110.1 1D Change (%) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Buy (%) NA NA NA NA NA NA Sell (%) NA NA NA NA NA NA Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE December 19 , 2018 GLOBAL NEWS   IMF’s Director of APAC has stated the US-China trade war is affecting business confidence and investment in Asia, which will result in the fund lowering its global growth forecast in January-19. (Source: Reuters) The US President kept pressurizing Federal Reserve by warning its board members not to make another mistake by making the market more illiquid than it currently is, by raising interest beyond 50bps.  Dubai’s ride hailing app, Careem is planning to spend USD 150.0mn to launch an online delivery platform for goods and services, Careem NOW, to expand into food delivery market. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai-based private utility firm, Utico has announced that it has commissioned the largest sustainable trans-Emirate pipeline in the nation constructed at a cost of more than USD 100.0mn and connects Ras Al Khaimah, Um Al Qwain, Sharjah and Ajman. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Abu Dhabi-based Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA) has signed an agreement with Mubadala and Dubai Holding to develop a new power block and a water desalination plant at EGA’s smelter at Jebel Ali in Dubai to improve power efficiency. (Source: Arabian Business) (Source: Reuters)  Fitch ratings has stated that a no-deal Brexit is most likely to result in lowering of the UK’s credit rating again in early 2019 as the nation is then likely to face a recession. (Source: Reuters)   British Chambers of Commerce has forecasted UK’s economic growth to be the slowest since 2009, at 1.2% and 1.3% in 2018 and 2019 respectively, due to a suspension in business investment and weak consumer demand ahead of Brexit. (Source: Reuters) Ras Al Khaimah’s Tourism Development Authority has announced the launch of a new three-year strategy “Destination Strategy 2019-2021” focusing on diversifying the emirate’s tourism offerings and attracting broader segment of tourism. (Source: Arabian Business)   EU government and lawmakers have agreed on new rules for the percentage of amount that banks should keep aside as collateral against possible losses from new loans that turn bad. (Source: Reuters) Saudi Arabia is planning to increase its budget spending by over 7.0% YoY to SAR 1.1tn (USD 295.0bn) in 2019 to improve economic growth. However the budget projects a deficit of USD 35.0bn, still 32.0% lower than estimated deficit for 2018. (Source: Reuters)  Japan’s government has lowered its economic growth forecast for FY18 and FY-19 to 0.9% and 1.3% as compared to earlier forecast of 1.5% for both years, due to natural disasters and weakening export demand. Consumer prices are expected to rise by 1.0% and 1.1% as against earlier forecast of 1.1% and 1.5%. (Source: Reuters)  Saudi Arabia has announced that it will continue giving allowances to its citizens in 2019, similar to those made in 2018, as the country plans for an expansionary budget. (Source: The National)  Saudi Arabian Energy Minister has stated that the country is exploring joint investments in refining and petrochemicals sector with India's refinery firm, Reliance Industries. (Source: Live Mint)  Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of labor has issued a government decree which will restrict total of 41 professions in the city of Madinah to Saudi nationals. (Source: Arabian Business)  Fitch Solutions has forecasted Oman’s fiscal deficit to contract slowly to 6.8% of GDP in 2019 from 7.7% in 2018, as weakening oil price growth restricts revenue gains ahead. (Source: Fitch Solutions)  Shell Oman Marketing Company has entered into an agreement with Oman’s Port of Duqm Company to build a bunkering terminal providing various grades of fuels and lubricants and other ancillary facilities for marine liners calling at the Port. (Source: Muscat Daily)  Bahrain-based aluminum producer, Alba and EPCM contractor, Bechtel have accomplished a key construction milestone by successfully producing the first hot metal at its Potline 6 Expansion Project two weeks before the schedule. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Kuwaiti Oil Minister Bakheet Al-Rashidi has resigned amid vigorous internal disputes that have resulted in project delays in the country. CEO’s of Kuwait Oil Co and Kuwait Integrated Petroleum Industries Co have also resigned along with him. (Source: Arabian Business)  Kuwait’s property developer, Tamdeen Group has announced that the work at its Shaikh Jaber Al Abdullah Al Jaber Al Sabah International Tennis Complex was going on in full swing. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Japan’s output gap in Q3-18 turned negative to minus 0.2% as compared to 0.7% in Q2-18 for the first time in almost two years, indicating that the central banks inflation target of 2.0% will become even more distant due to weakening price pressure. (Source: Reuters)  China is planning to remove 11 steel companies from the list of qualified firms, effectively prohibiting their operations and ordered another 17 companies to rectify environmental, safety and other breaches to avoid similar actions. (Source: Reuters)  China’s state planner has given approval for the nations new urban railway projects costing CNY 298.4bn (USD 43.3bn) in Shanghai, consisting of six subway lines and three inter-city railways with a total estimated length of 286.1 km. (Source: Reuters)  Turkey’s trade minister has stated that the nation needs to work with India to establish balanced and sustainable trade relations, citing that the bilateral trade between both nations increased by 14.3% YoY to USD 8.0bn in first 11 months of 2018. (Source: Hurriyet Daily) GCC NEWS  UAE’s foreign currency assets held by the Central Bank rose 5.9% MoM to AED 346.3bn (USD 94.3bn) in November-18 and the monetary base expanded by 6.0% MoM to AED 371.6bn (USD 101.2bn), according to the CBUAE. (Source: Arabian Business)  UAE’s e-commerce is expected to double by 2020 to reach AED 100.0bn (USD 27.2bn) as compared to 2016, according to a study by the World Economic Forum. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai-based logistics firm, Aramex has announced its plans to sell its 60.0% shares in Aramex Global Solutions valued at USD 20.0mn to Australia Post, according to the CEO. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai Aerospace Enterprise has announced its plans to sell a portfolio of 18 mid-life aircraft which are currently on lease, to prospective institutional investors. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai-based Ento Capital has launched an AED 702.0mn (USD 191.0mn) Sharia-compliant income generating property fund, Ento Wonderland Fund to develop the entire Wonderland Project and generate annual revenues to investors. (Source: Arabian Business) QATAR NEWS  WTO has accepted Qatar’s request to form a WTO panel to rule in a case field against Saudi Arabia involving violation of intellectual property rights of Qatari citizens and firms, which also includes the rights of television broadcasters. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar’s corporate sector is expected to see more listings in 2019, reflecting the rising confidence in the nation’s stock exchange, which has been the best performer in the GCC region in 2018, according to the CEO of Qatar Stock Exchange. (Source: Gulf Times)  The CEO of Qatar Airways has stated that the Airlines had added around 23 new destinations over the past 18 months and is a major indicator of its sustainability and resilience. (Source: Gulf Times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE December 19 , 2018 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1391 USD/QAR 3.6415 112.5200 EUR/QAR 4.1480 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2669 JPY/QAR 0.0324 USD/CHF 0.9923 GBP/QAR 4.6134 USD/CAD 1.3466 CHF/QAR 3.6698 AUD/USD 0.7181 CAD/QAR 2.7042 NZD/USD 0.6846 AUD/QAR 2.6150 USD/INR 69.9462 INR/QAR 0.0521 USD/TRY 5.3455 TRY/QAR 0.6812 USD/ZAR 14.3512 ZAR/QAR 0.2537 USD/BRL 3.9092 BRL/QAR 0.9315 FX Commentary The USD ended marginally lower against a basket of major currencies yesterday, with the dollar index closing at 97.093. The greenback weakened, due to concerns that the US Fed could slow the pace of interest rate hikes after this week’s policymaking meeting. The EUR gained against the USD, after the Italy’s government reached an agreement with the EU with regards to its budget proposal for 2019. The GBP strengthened against the USD, amid hopes that the UK’s Prime Minister may avoid no-Brexit deal. The CAD weakened against the USD, due to steep fall in oil prices and cutbacks in production might lead to reduced activity in Canada’s energy sector. The JPY gained against the USD, after the release of mixed sets of economic data. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 2.18 2.30 2.47 2.80 3.10 (0.46) (0.38) (0.37) (0.31) (0.13) 2.30 2.42 2.58 2.85 3.26 4.0% SAIBOR NA 2.56 2.69 2.90 3.32 2.0% EIBOR 1.86 2.25 2.49 2.90 3.52 BMIBOR 2.13 2.41 3.18 3.46 4.11 NA NA 1.88 2.13 2.63 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 4.77% 3.10% 3.38% 3.77% 3.93% 2.64% 2.64% 2.72% 2.81% 3.06% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 0.0% Qatar Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 4.0% US 23.0 (2.0) Turkey 380.0 78.1 UK 41.0 15.4 Brazil 203.0 (69.8) Germany 14.6 2.0 Egypt 369.4 (33.7) France 39.2 10.5 Italy 223.6 1.0 Greece 489.4 Russia 147.0 Japan 25.2 (0.7) 2.78% 2.0% 2.83% 2.75% 2.72% 2.44% 2.35% 2.06% 2.27% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 2.91% 2.61% 0.0% 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change Abu Dhabi 69.0 1.4 Bahrain 291.5 (118.1) 111.0 Dubai 137.0 (2.2) 4.2 Qatar 75.4 (22.1) Saudi Arabia 94.8 2.3 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 15:00 UK CPI YoY Nov 2.30% 2.40% 15:00 UK CPI MoM Nov 0.20% 0.10% 15:00 UK CPI Core YoY Nov 1.80% 1.90% 15:00 UK PPI Output NSA MoM Nov 0.00% 0.30% 15:00 UK PPI Output NSA YoY Nov 3.00% 3.30% 15:00 UK RPI MoM Nov 0.10% 0.10% 15:00 UK RPI YoY Nov 3.20% 3.30% 15:00 UK Retail Price Index 17:30 US MBA Mortgage Applications 18:30 Russia 18:30 Russia 18:30 Russia CPI WoW 19:00 Canada CPI YoY 19:00 Canada CPI NSA MoM 19:00 US Current Account Balance 20:30 US Existing Home Sales 00:30 US Nov 284.8 284.5 Dec-14th - 1.60% Unemployment Rate Nov 4.80% 4.70% Retail Sales Real YoY Nov 2.10% 1.90% Dec-17th - 0.20% Nov 1.80% 2.40% Nov (0.40%) 0.30% 3Q ($125.0b) ($101.5b) Nov 5.20m 5.22m Dec-19th 2.50% 2.25% FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE December 19 , 2018 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 17th December 2018) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed QAMCO Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.3 2.4 0.0 13.9 4.4 6.7 4.8 5.7 0.0 2.8 6.1 3.1 8.6 3.6 6.9 6.3 5.7 5.0 4.7 0.0 0.0 6.4 6.0 5.2 6.6 0.0 4.7 3.6 4.4 N/A (‫)غ‬ 4.1 2.6 7.0 7.6 3.8 0.0 5.9 3.5 4.6 6.2 4.0 6.2 4.0 0.0 8.7 5.0 4.4 0.0 3.5 4.2 5.4 5.3 5.2 3.9 P/B Ratio (x) 1.1 1.1 1.4 0.7 1.0 0.7 2.5 0.4 0.8 2.4 1.8 2.7 0.6 2.1 1.0 1.9 2.2 0.9 2.4 1.2 0.4 3.5 1.0 1.8 0.7 1.0 0.5 2.4 1.4 N/A (‫)غ‬ 2.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.9 0.4 0.6 1.5 0.7 2.4 1.1 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.2 0.5 0.8 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 9.1 10.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 8.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.1 15.1 15.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 13.7 11.5 13.2 46.4 13.1 5.9 21.0 16.7 18.9 14.8 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 11.1 7.2 13.7 11.8 34.5 10.6 17.5 70.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 14.1 15.1 9.6 12.7 19.0 30.0 14.7 20.9 12.1 12.2 17.2 9.1 44.1 28.3 10.4 18.3 16.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 21.5 10.3 11.4 15.1 12.4 15.1 EPS (QR) 3.1 4.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 2.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.6 2.8 0.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.2 5.7 14.8 0.1 6.1 9.9 3.0 8.9 1.1 11.5 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 6.0 13.8 5.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 7.9 0.2 N/A (‫)غ‬ 13.3 1.9 4.5 4.6 2.2 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.9 4.6 2.1 4.4 0.3 0.3 1.4 0.9 4.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.3 4.0 1.6 4.4 2.3 2.9 BV/Share (QR) 25.6 38.8 7.6 29.2 24.0 15.5 17.1 19.6 5.3 64.0 37.7 71.6 9.1 37.8 57.5 33.2 67.2 22.2 72.0 4.2 11.2 19.0 103.7 42.9 12.6 19.8 10.6 57.9 11.7 N/A (‫)غ‬ 94.1 22.0 33.4 46.9 21.8 20.1 20.8 24.5 70.0 23.7 31.9 48.3 11.8 13.0 30.5 17.8 67.7 5.4 22.5 28.6 15.9 126.0 34.3 26.7 Stock Price (QR) 28.6 41.0 10.3 21.6 23.0 11.2 42.1 8.7 4.2 152.8 66.0 196.0 5.8 58.4 63.2 148.9 20.1 170.9 5.1 4.5 66.1 99.0 9.1 19.0 5.3 138.0 16.0 13.0 187.0 28.5 43.0 59.0 8.4 12.6 37.1 47.5 56.5 40.3 12.4 8.0 14.4 79.0 8.1 40.5 18.5 66.6 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫قامكو‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4