GCC Daily Market Update - 14 June

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE June 14 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,440.4 21,328.5 5,751.8 7,500.4 12,765.0 5,261.7 99,299.7 19,898.8 25,852.1 3,153.7 31,103.5 11.0 92.8 43.6 (11.4) 74.5 21.2 (142.4) (9.8) 144.1 13.9 7.8 0.5 0.4 0.8 (0.2) 0.6 0.4 (0.1) (0.1) 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.2 1.5 (0.6) (0.3) 1.2 (0.4) 1.8 1.3 0.7 1.2 (0.1) 9.0 7.9 18.3 5.0 11.2 8.2 27.1 4.1 17.5 1.6 16.8 9,095.5 6,820.6 4,537.6 3,441.9 6,776.7 5,313.7 1,327.5 1,594.5 3,291.9 (39.7) (1.8) 26.3 14.6 2.0 (0.5) 5.2 (8.4) 17.1 (0.4) (0.0) 0.6 0.4 0.0 (0.0) 0.4 (0.5) 0.5 (8.1) (0.7) 2.5 3.1 (0.1) (2.0) 0.6 (2.1) 0.5 (12.9) (5.4) (0.2) (2.5) 17.9 (8.1) 8.8 1.4 13.3 48.7 46.5 3.0 1,265.8 259.7 0.4 0.4 (0.1) (0.3) (1.9) 0.9 0.8 (1.9) (0.0) (0.7) (3.9) (4.8) (3.2) (0.5) 0.5 (14.9) (14.4) (20.2) 9.9 3.5 Source: Bloomberg Global Most global markets ended higher, helped by gains in Technology sector, amid bargain hunting on the part of the investors. US markets witnessed a risk on mode with VIX down to 10.7, and a sell-off witnessed in dividend paying Real estate, Staples and Telecom sectors, as Fed is widely anticipated to increase its interest rate in the ongoing meet. Financial shares were among the notable gainers, while Energy shares were broadly unchanged, despite gains in oil prices. In Europe, UK’s benchmark bucked the broader positive trend, as the latest inflation data resulted to a rise in the GBP, which weighed on the prospects of exporters listed on the UK benchmark. In Asia, China’s benchmark added 0.4%, with economic data coming in line with forecasts. GCC GCC markets traded mostly higher. Saudi markets were broadly unchanged, amid a thin trading session. Gains in Retail sector were offset by losses in Media sector. Dubai’s index closed higher, as Emaar Properties remained supported, on the back of last week’s announcement to spin-off its domestic real estate business. Abu Dhabi markets outperformed its peer indices, driven by solid gains in Dana Gas, after the company revealed its intentions of restructuring its USD700 mn sukuk at reduced profit rate. Bahraini markets climbed 0.4%, helped by gains in Industrial and Commercial Banking shares. Qatar Foreign Institutional investors continued their sell-off in the Qatari markets amidst the ongoing diplomatic row, the nation has with its neighbor’s. The drop was largely contained by buying interest from local investors. Trading volume increased, amidst lower trading value. Sell-off was more prominent in the Insurance and Real Estate space, while Banking index was impacted by a 1.3% decline in sector heavyweight Qatar National Bank. Out of 44 companies listed, 39 exchanged hands, of which 18 declined, 19 advanced and 2 remain unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.4 1.3 4.1 73.3 10,700 DSM 20 15.1 1.6 3.7 45.4 10,200 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 16.1 1.6 3.3 425.6 9,700 UAE (ADX) 16.4 1.3 4.5 91.2 9,200 UAE (DFM) 16.5 1.3 4.1 121.9 Kuwait (KSE) 18.4 1.2 3.9 12.8 Oman (MSM) 12.1 1.1 5.5 4.0 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 8.3 0.8 5.9 1.1 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Gulf Warehousing Co. Al Ahli Bank Qatar & Oman Inv. Co Qatari Investors Group Qatar Electric. & Water Top Losers Qatar Industrial Manuf National Leasing Industries Qatar Qatar National Bank QGMD Close Price 48.8 34.6 9.0 51.4 192.4 3.2 1.6 0.2 0.7 2.5 6.9 4.8 2.5 1.4 1.3 (12.9) (6.8) (9.5) (12.1) (15.2) (15.3) 474.8 13.6 (13.5) 0.2 10.9 (18.1) 1,150.5 25.4 8.2 21.3 22.3 (4.6) 32.8 13.7 40.4 14.0 96.3 133.2 7.6 (1.1) (0.3) (1.7) (1.8) (0.1) (2.7) (2.1) (1.7) (1.3) (1.3) (9.2) (8.6) (18.0) (10.1) (24.8) (1.3) 0.8 9.6 (18.7) 1,209.9 183.6 0.0 82.1 18.3 6.7 214.0 9.9 (33.9) 5.5 NA Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 11,200 8,700 23/Mar 20.0 9,095.5 10.0 0.0 6/Apr 20/Apr 4/May Index Volume (mn) 18/May 1/Jun Index Value Closing Level 2,789.6 5,270.3 2,819.1 4,034.8 1,912.9 1,113.8 1,945.9 1D Change (%) (0.4) 0.4 (0.5) (0.8) (0.6) (0.1) 1.2 Buy (%) 48.8 22.3 71.0 10.7 18.3 29.0 Sell (%) 46.6 10.5 57.1 8.9 33.9 42.9 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE June 14 , 2017 GLOBAL NEWS      Bahrain's outlook is changed from Stable to Negative by Fitch as the government has yet to identify a clear medium-term strategy to tackle high deficits and a rapidly growing government debt ratio in spite of various near term measures to rein in the fiscal deficit. It affirmed senior unsecured foreign and local currency long-term bonds at BB+ UK inflation increased to annualized 2.9% in May-17 from 2.7% in April-17, highest since June-13. Weakness in the sterling since the 'Brexit' vote made imports expensive. Core inflation, that excludes energy, food, alcoholic beverages and tobacco increased to 2.6% in May-17. (Source: Morningstar) (Source: Reuters) Germany’s economic growth continued in Q2-17 driven by rise in private and state spending, expansion in industrial production and exports trending upward, said economy ministry in its monthly report.  Bahrain government is expecting to generate BHD 4.5bn (USD 11.9bn) combined revenues for 2017 and 2018 with BHD 2.2bn in 2017 and BDH 2.3bn in 2018. (Source: Arabian Business) (Source: Reuters)  Oman consumer inflation reached 1.96% in May-17 driven by YoY rise of 7.5% in the Transport, 1.6% in Housing, Water Electricity, Gas and other fuels and 23.9% in Tobacco. (Source: Times of Oman)  Oman’s central bank raised OMR 60.6mn by way of allotting treasury bills which has maturity period of 28 days and the average accepted price reached OMR 99.9 for every OMR 100.0. Discount rate and yield reached 0.793% and 0.794% respectively. (Source: Times of Oman)  Kuwait Oil Company has awarded worth USD 35.0mn contract to Petrofac for five years to provide specialist technical training and competency development services. (Source: Trade Arabia) ECB needs to change its current monetary policy soon as ultra-loose monetary policy in many regions has stimulated undue risk taking, policy complacency, capital misallocation and asset price bubbles, the German Finance Minister said. (Source: Reuters) BOJ's executive director said that the pace of bond buying had slowed down as US treasury yields have declined. This has enabled capping of Japanese long-term rates while also reducing its purchases. (Source: Reuters)  Saudi Arabia based BLOMINVEST Bank has introduced Blom MSCI Saudi Arabia Select Min Vol Fund which is a public, open ended, Shariah-compliant investment fund established in accordance with the Investment Fund Regulations and approved by the Capital Market Authority in Saudi Arabia. (Source: Zawya) US producer prices remained flat in May-17 after rising by 0.5% MoM in April-17. Core producer prices excluding food and energy prices rose by 0.3% in May-17 following a 0.4% increase In April-17. (Source: Morningstar)   Turkey’s number of vehicles registered declined by 7.2% YoY in April17 to reach 99,260. During Januay-17 to April-17 the number of registered motor vehicles surged by 2.0% YoY to 395,815. (Source: AA) GCC NEWS  UAE’s inflation rate in consumer prices soared up to 2.2% during the first five months of 2017 driven by 3.5% rise in prices of Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and other types of fuels. (Source: Trade Arabia)  UAE General Civil Aviation Authority and Saudi General Authority of Civil Aviation have inked a MoU to increase the number of weekly flights between the two countries to 86. (Source: WAM)  Dubai based developer, Nakheel, has issued a tender for the construction of AED 16.0bn (USD 4.4bn) Nad Al Sheba Mall with an area of 1.2mn sq.ft. in Dubai. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai Investments Real Estate Company has completed the preparation work including excavation and shoring works for the first phase of its AED 3.0bn (USD 816.0mn) mixed use project, Mirdif Hills. QATAR NEWS  Consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.6% MoM in May-17 due to lower expenses towards Food, Clothing and Recreation whereas CPI inflation surged 0.1% YoY driven by costlier Transport, Education, Health and Furniture. (Source: Gulf Times)  According to Qatar Chamber monthly report, non-oil exports declined 27.3% MoM and 18.4% YoY to QAR 1.3bn in April-17. The industry sector was the top performer for non-oil exports in April-17. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar’s real estate transaction during the period from 4th June-17 to 8th June-17 were valued at QAR 2.9bn. The types of real estate traded ranged from plots of land, houses to residential compounds and multipurpose buildings. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  S&P Global Ratings said that it’s rating on most Qatar–based insurance entities are not immediately affected by diplomatic rows as they have limited or no direct exposure to these countries and also have robust levels of capital relative to balance sheet risks. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatalum’s aluminum plant has started exporting metals through ports in Kuwait and Oman, as well as a Qatari container port, after diplomatic row with neighbors, said Hydro chief executive. (Source: (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai based Transguard Group reported an increase in its net profit by 18.0% to AED 146.0mn (USD 39.7mn) and revenue rose by 33.0% to AED 1.9bn (USD 517.0mn) for the financial year 2016-17 (year ending 31st March) driven by companies retention ratio of over 90.0% and new contracts worth AED 850.0mn, according to Company’s CEO. (Source: Trade Arabia)   Dubai SME’s financial arm, The Mohammed bin Rashid Fund and Beehive have inked a MoU to facilitate SME financing and enhance SME performance by allowing them to obtain loans for development and expansion at viable rates through the Beehive Group Finance Platform. (Source: Zawya)  Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Labour and Social Development has been selected as an alternate member of the Governing Body of the International Labour Organisation, with 168 votes out of the total 253 members, for the period 2017-2020. (Source: Trade Arabia) Qatar Petroleum’s Wave LNG Solutions and Shell Gas & Power Developments BV (Shell) signed a framework agreement to develop LNG marine fueling or bunkering infrastructure at strategic shipping locations across the globe, said Qatar Petroleum’s president and CEO. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Reinsurance Company partnered with Centerbridge, a US-based investment firm, in an attempt to buy Sabre from BC Partners according to sources. BC is expected to hire investment banks in June17 to work on an IPO that it believes could value Sabre at as much as GBP 600.0mn. (Source: Sky news)  Vodafone attained 21.1% total revenue market share and 28.4% mobile revenue market share in Qatar with 1.5mn customer base, said company’s CEO. (Source: Gulf Times) Sharjah based Dana Gas is planning to cut its profit rates on USD 700.0mn Sukuk bonds by 50.0% as the bonds are non-compliant with religious law. It will exchange USD 350.0mn of 9.0% certificate and USD 350.0mn of 7.0% certificate with a new 4 year security. (Source: Arabian Business)  Business Standard) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE June 14 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1241 USD/QAR 3.6650 110.0700 EUR/QAR 4.1198 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2784 JPY/QAR 0.0333 USD/CHF 0.9689 GBP/QAR 4.6853 USD/CAD 1.3242 CHF/QAR 3.7826 AUD/USD 0.7537 CAD/QAR 2.7677 NZD/USD 0.7221 AUD/QAR 2.7623 USD/INR 63.8400 INR/QAR 0.0574 USD/TRY 3.5191 TRY/QAR 1.0415 USD/ZAR 12.7652 ZAR/QAR 0.2871 USD/BRL 3.3144 BRL/QAR 1.1058 FX Commentary The USD inched lower against a basket of currencies, with the dollar index down 0.2%, majorly weighed by the strength in CAD. A high probability of interest rate hike by the Fed in today’s meet lent some support to the greenback. The CAD strengthened against the USD, after the Bank of Canada Governor stated that the central bank might increase its lending rates sooner than its previous expectations, in light of strength in the economy. The GBP gained against the USD, as a higher than anticipated inflation data, spurred beliefs that the Bank of England could turn hawkish in its upcoming meeting. The EUR traded slightly higher against the USD. Economic data released on Tuesday revealed that the ZEW economic sentiment in the common currency bloc improved more than market expectations. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.93 1.11 1.14 1.24 1.74 (0.43) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.15) QAIBOR 1.63 1.69 1.91 2.30 2.86 SAIBOR NA 1.12 1.33 1.74 2.21 EIBOR 0.73 0.82 1.12 1.50 2.10 BMIBOR 0.83 1.03 1.50 1.83 2.48 NA NA 1.38 1.63 2.13 LIBOR EURIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.0% 2.47% 2.88% 3.14% 3.40% 1.78% 2.01% 2.20% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 4.39% 2.0% 1.36% 2.86% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 22.7 (4.8) Turkey 187.2 (92.3) UK 24.2 (8.3) Brazil 235.7 (60.7) Germany 16.0 (6.4) Egypt 384.6 (68.6) France 26.5 (9.7) Abu Dhabi 48.6 (12.9) Italy 155.4 3.7 Bahrain 229.4 (71.1) Greece 628.3 (285.3) Dubai 123.6 (18.2) Russia 159.4 (71.9) Qatar 96.1 14.3 Japan 26.1 (3.9) Saudi Arabia 99.0 12.6 2.0% 1.56% 2.01% 1.87% 2.46% 1.94% 1.0% 0.0% 2.18% 0.87% 2 Yrs 1.48% 1.28% 1.11% 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 09:00 Germany CPI MoM May F (0.20%) (0.20%) 09:00 Germany CPI YoY May F 1.50% 1.50% 09:00 Germany CPI EU Harmonized MoM May F (0.20%) (0.20%) 09:00 Germany CPI EU Harmonized YoY May F 1.40% 1.40% 11:30 UK Claimant Count Rate May - 2.30% 11:30 UK Jobless Claims Change May - 19.4k 11:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Apr 4.60% 4.60% 12:00 Eurozone Industrial Production SA MoM Apr 0.50% (0.10%) 12:00 Eurozone Industrial Production WDA YoY Apr 1.40% 1.90% 14:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Jun-09th - 7.10% 15:30 US CPI MoM May 0.00% 0.20% 15:30 US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM May 0.20% 0.10% 15:30 US CPI YoY May 2.00% 2.20% 15:30 US Retail Sales Advance MoM May 0.00% 0.40% 15:30 US Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM May 0.10% 0.30% 15:30 US Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas May 0.30% 0.30% Jun-14th 1.25% 1.00% 21:00 US FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE June 14 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 2.8 0.0 0.0 9.9 1.8 5.7 5.1 3.6 0.0 5.1 7.4 2.4 5.6 3.4 5.8 3.7 6.8 3.6 6.0 0.0 8.4 6.4 6.0 5.9 5.3 5.0 4.2 4.6 3.9 2.0 7.4 5.6 4.3 3.2 4.1 1.7 4.3 5.9 2.3 7.8 4.3 0.0 7.2 5.4 3.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 3.1 3.3 5.9 5.4 5.3 3.9 P/B Ratio (x) 1.4 0.7 2.4 0.9 2.3 0.8 2.5 0.7 0.9 1.6 1.4 2.1 0.9 1.7 1.3 2.4 2.1 1.3 1.6 1.2 0.7 3.7 0.7 1.5 0.9 1.0 1.8 1.2 2.7 2.6 1.3 1.5 1.7 0.9 0.7 2.3 0.5 2.8 1.5 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.8 1.4 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.7 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 P/E Ratio (x) 10.9 40.1 47.1 7.4 60.7 10.9 14.6 (H) (‫)م‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.9 10.2 9.7 25.4 10.9 6.3 33.4 13.9 45.7 13.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.6 10.4 5.9 11.4 16.0 (H) (‫)م‬ 18.3 16.4 13.7 22.3 9.6 9.8 16.8 36.3 9.4 18.4 14.7 13.9 17.3 8.7 14.1 23.0 10.4 11.9 15.6 N/A (‫)غ‬ 19.1 13.6 10.4 12.5 11.5 12.8 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.8 0.5 4.1 0.9 1.2 2.7 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 9.4 5.3 13.8 0.4 5.6 11.0 2.5 9.5 0.6 8.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.9 5.3 12.6 5.4 0.7 0.0 5.3 0.8 14.0 2.3 4.2 6.7 2.4 0.5 1.6 3.7 2.4 4.3 3.0 3.7 0.8 0.5 1.7 1.2 5.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.6 3.6 1.6 5.2 2.4 3.0 BV/Share (QR) 24.2 42.0 9.2 34.9 24.4 16.7 15.6 20.1 9.0 57.9 39.2 65.1 9.6 36.6 54.5 33.9 63.0 20.9 65.8 6.4 14.0 14.5 112.9 41.5 12.7 19.5 52.9 10.9 72.3 20.1 30.9 44.8 23.9 20.9 21.3 29.2 71.6 21.0 35.7 45.6 11.7 12.6 30.2 17.4 68.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 18.8 25.2 14.7 122.0 32.4 26.6 Stock Price (QR) 34.6 30.1 22.3 30.3 55.6 13.1 39.6 14.0 7.8 92.5 53.8 133.2 9.0 68.7 81.8 132.2 27.9 107.5 7.6 9.5 54.4 75.0 11.4 20.1 96.3 13.0 192.4 51.4 40.4 65.1 18.5 14.5 67.2 35.0 59.5 32.0 11.6 10.5 17.5 92.6 7.9 48.8 17.0 65.1 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4