GCC Daily Market Update - 13 December

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE December 13 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,257.0 19,796.4 4,874.3 6,890.4 11,190.2 4,760.8 76,239.6 19,155.0 22,433.0 3,153.0 26,515.2 (2.6) 39.6 (21.6) (63.8) (13.4) (3.3) 512.4 158.7 (328.0) (79.9) (231.9) (0.1) 0.2 (0.4) (0.9) (0.1) (0.1) 0.7 0.8 (1.4) (2.5) (0.9) 2.6 3.5 1.3 1.6 5.2 4.0 3.0 4.6 (1.6) (3.0) (0.5) 10.4 13.6 6.1 10.4 4.2 2.7 6.3 0.6 2.4 (10.9) 1.5 10,328.8 7,162.4 4,549.1 3,657.1 5,637.0 5,696.3 1,190.5 1,550.3 2,920.4 140.9 (35.5) 31.9 98.4 25.2 NA (1.4) (0.6) 0.3 1.4 (0.5) 0.7 2.8 0.5 NA (0.1) (0.0) 0.0 5.5 2.3 5.6 8.8 1.5 3.8 1.4 4.2 1.7 (1.0) 3.6 5.6 16.1 0.4 5.4 (2.1) 9.3 4.4 55.7 52.8 3.5 1,163.5 261.3 1.4 1.3 (0.2) 4.1 (2.9) 2.5 2.6 (6.4) 0.4 (1.1) 10.5 6.7 5.2 (0.6) (1.0) 49.6 42.4 50.9 9.7 21.6 Source: Bloomberg Global Global stocks ended on a mixed note on Monday. In US, Dow hit record highs fueled by Energy shares, while the Nasdaq was lower, dragged down by Technology stocks. Gains in Energy shares were on back of strong performance posted by Brent and WTI after Non OPEC members pledged to participate in the production cut. S&P closed marginally lower as gains in Energy shares were offset by declines in consumer discretionary and defense stocks. European shares fell as weaker drug makers more than offset gains by Oil stocks. Healthcare index closed 1% lower weighed by Swiss pharmaceutical company Lonza, which fell 6.9% after it said it was in advanced talks to buy US drugs capsule maker Capsugel. In Asia, Japans benchmark closed 0.8% higher buoyed by weak yen, while China’s index closed 2.5% lower as blue-chips were impacted by fresh regulatory curbs to rein in insurers' aggressive stock investments. All main sectors lost ground, led by Real Estate and Industrial shares. GCC Most Gulf stocks rose on Monday as crude oil prices rose to their highest since mid-2015. Saudi’s TASI slipped 0.5% as investors booked profits in most Petrochemical shares with bellwether SABIC down 1.3%. Dubai main index climbed 2.8% in the heaviest trade since March-16 with 80% of the traded shares in green. Abu Dhabi’s main index rose 0.7% with main support coming from Abu Dhabi National Energy and Etisalat which gained 5.7% and 2.2% respectively. Qatar QE index soared on Monday, posting its 5th consecutive gains on back of strong crude prices. Domestic institutions turned bullish and there was also increased buying support from their Gulf counterparts, with buying activity concentrated in Realty and Industrial sectors. Total trade volume rose 48% driven industrial counter whose volume almost tripled. Out of 44 stocks listed, 42 stocks exchanged hands, of which 28 gained, 13 fell and 1 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 14.0 1.6 4.0 122.1 DSM 20 15.0 1.6 3.9 106.2 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.0 1.7 3.2 2,053.0 UAE (ADX) 11.7 1.4 5.4 82.1 UAE (DFM) 11.9 1.3 3.8 418.9 Kuwait (KSE) 18.6 1.0 4.3 83.1 Oman (MSM) 10.8 1.1 5.0 6.3 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.8 0.4 4.7 1.1 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Mazaya Qatar Real Est Gulf Intl Services Zad Holding Co Qatar National Bank Mesaieed Petchem. Top Losers Al Ahli Bank Islamic Holding Group Qatar Islamic Insurance Ooredoo Qsc Qatar Indus. Manufac. Close Price 14.5 32.2 80.5 156.0 16.5 0.6 1.3 2.2 4.0 0.4 4.3 4.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 7.2 (37.5) (5.1) 7.0 (14.9) 12.9 3,073.3 17.0 (32.2) 1,822.4 35.7 3.2 1.4 9.8 17.4 204.9 10.7 (8.3) 397.4 20.4 38.9 62.5 50.0 97.1 43.4 (3.1) (1.9) (1.4) (1.9) (0.6) (7.4) (3.0) (2.7) (1.9) (1.4) (11.4) (20.6) (30.6) 29.5 8.9 (9.1) 2.0 (27.0) 41.8 13.9 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 0.5 229.0 91.4 244.6 32.2 11.5 223.2 12.3 14.2 10.5 Qatar DSM Index 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 18/Sep 40.0 10,328.8 2/Oct 16/Oct 30/Oct Index Volume (mn) 13/Nov 27/Nov 20.0 0.0 11/Dec Index Value Closing Level 2,834.0 5,815.2 3,268.0 4,510.6 2,310.1 1,165.9 2,487.7 1D Change (%) 1.4 0.3 1.7 (0.5) 2.0 (1.3) 0.9 Buy (%) 34.8 26.6 61.4 10.8 27.9 38.7 Sell (%) 45.3 21.4 66.7 12.2 21.1 33.3 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE December 13 , 2016 programme hosted by the Dubai Future Foundation and the Government of Dubai. (Source: Arabian Business) GLOBAL NEWS  The US government posted a USD137 bn budget deficit in November16, a 112% YoY increase from a USD 65bn gap in November-15, as outlays rose 25% to USD 337bn while receipts fell 2% to USD 200bn.  Rents in Sharjah’s residential and commercial property markets have fallen for a second year in a row, increasing tenancy options in the emirate, according to real estate consultancy Cluttons. Residential rents in Sharjah fell 5.7% in Q1-16, 2.5% in Q2-16 and a further 4.7% during Q3-16, marking YTD change of 7.1%. (Source: Arabian Business)  Abu Dhabi's hospitality sector reported declines across key performance metrics in November-16, as revenue per available room (RevPAR), fell 13.8% YoY to AED 534.97, said an STR report. Average daily rate (ADR) dropped 11.1% YoY to AED 660.14 and occupancy levels slipped 3.1% to 81.0%. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Abu Dhabi signed the UAE' second hyper loop feasibility study to build a futuristic high-speed transport system connecting the cities of Abu Dhabi and Al Ain. (Source: Reuters)  Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Labor and Social Development signed two MoUs with a number of entities to establish strategic partnership in the nonprofit sector. The agreements for empowerment and financial stability call for the creation of funds worth a total of SAR 2.05bn. (Source: Trading Economics)   Most non-financial companies in Asia (excluding Japan) can address their bond maturities (which are worth USD 608bn) over the next four years supported by their generally solid credit quality and adequate market liquidity, said Moody's Vice President and Senior Credit Officer. (Source: Moody’s) Growth in global coal demand will slow over the next five years due to lower consumption in China and the United States and as renewable energy sources gain ground, the International Energy Agency said. (Source: Reuters)  Oil prices surged to their highest since mid-2015 rising 5% to top USD 57 a barrel and US Treasury yields hit a more than two-year peak after the non-OPEC members agreed to cut output by 558,000 barrels a day. (Source: Reuters)   Britain's decision to leave the European Union, unpredictable US policy under president-elect Donald Trump, and political uncertainty in Italy are key risks facing the German economy, the nation’s Economy Ministry said. (Source: Reuters) Retail sales in China rose 10.8% YoY in November-16, following a 10.0% YoY increase in October-16 and beating market expectations of a 10.1% YoY rise. It was the strongest growth since December 2015, as sales grew for all categories. (Source: Trading Economics)  Turkey posted a current account deficit of USD 1.67bn in October-16, compared to a USD 0.3mn gap in October-15 and slightly above market expectations of USD 1.65bn shortfall. (Source: Trading Economics)  Turkey’s economy contracted by bigger than expected 1.8% YoY in Q316 on weak consumer spending and exports, marking the first YoY decline in quarterly GDP since Q3-09. Consumer spending dropped 3.2% YoY in Q3-16 as against a 3.7% YoY rise in the Q2-16, while government spending rose 23.8% YoY during Q3-16. (Source: TurkStat) (Source: Saudi Gazette)  The German Saudi Arabian Liaison Office for Economic Affairs (GESALO) has signed agreements with six strategic partners to strengthen German-Saudi business relations, delegate of German Industry and Commerce for Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Yemen revealed. (Source: Arab News)  Saudi Arabia is spending 20% of its budget on maintenance, as the efficiency of the operation in the government sector is only 58%, Mohammad Al-Fawzan, chairman of the Arab Institute of Operations and Maintenance, said. (Source: Saudi Gazette)  Bahrain based Khaleeji Commercial Bank announced that Moody’s confirmed its rating of the bank’s long-term counterparty risk assessment at ‘Ba2 (cr)’. (Source: Trade Arabia)  The Arab Petroleum Investments Corporation (Apicorp), a multilateral development bank, acquired a strategic 30% stake in Bahrain’s Falcon Cement Company, which is one of the largest cement producers in Bahrain. (Source: Trade Arabia) GCC NEWS    The adoption of VAT by the GCC countries marks a major shift in tax policy, said an industry expert, adding that the VAT of 5% is expected to produce revenues of over USD 25bn per annum for the six countries. (Source: Trade Arabia) The GCC region currently has some 153 healthcare projects worth nearly USD 43bn under various stages of development, which are scheduled to be completed by 2021, according to a new report released by Al Masah Capital. (Source: Gulf Times) Banks are seeking higher pricing on a USD 3bn loan that Dubai is raising to help fund airport expansion, people with knowledge of the plan said. Lenders are seeking a margin of 200 to 220 basis points (bps) over the benchmark rate for the 7-year facility, compared with Dubai and adviser HSBC Holdings’ proposal of 180 bps plus about 14 bps in fees. QATAR NEWS  Minister of Economy and Commerce met a delegation of businessmen and CEOs of US companies operating in various sectors. During the meeting, he reviewed laws and procedures of investment in Qatar, and touched on the most important investment opportunities from which the US private sector can benefit. (Source: The Peninsula)  Jordan would provide investment opportunities worth QAR 7.8bn to Qatar in sectors like renewable energy, transport, tourism, telecommunications and IT industries, Jordan Investment Commission Chairman, Thabet Elwir, said. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  The new building permits issued in Qatar’s residential and nonresidential sector constitutes 68% (416 permits) of the total building permits issued in November-16, while addition permits constituted 28% (171 permits) for the period. (Source: MDPS)  Qatar Airways is seeking to renegotiate a USD 7.8bn order for Airbus Group narrow-body jets and could switch to bigger planes powered by alternative engines as part of a revised agreement, its CEO said. (Source: (Source: Gulf Times)  Dubai Investment’s subsidiary Dubai Investments Real Estate Company (DIRC) will complete work on AED 3bn (USD 817mn) Mirdif Hills project by Q4-18, said chairman of DIRC. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai-based developer Omniyat Group will announce an AED 5bn (USD 1.36bn) project pipeline over 2017-18, including an ultra-luxury hospitality scheme on the new Dubai Water Canal, according to the company’s founder. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai has allocated AED 120mn (USD 32mn) in investment to 19 out of 30 companies taking part in the Dubai Future Accelerators Gulf Times)  Rental activity at the Pearl Qatar is outperforming industry expectations in 2016, as lower prices are attracting long-term Doha residents to move into the high-end development from other neighborhoods. Rental prices have dropped by 8% from 2015, an analysis by Coreo Real Estate showed. (Source: Qatar Tribune) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE December 13 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0665 USD/QAR 3.6414 115.0200 EUR/QAR 3.8836 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2709 JPY/QAR 0.0317 USD/CHF 1.0134 GBP/QAR 4.6279 USD/CAD 1.3130 CHF/QAR 3.5933 AUD/USD 0.7497 CAD/QAR 2.7733 NZD/USD 0.7192 AUD/QAR 2.7300 USD/INR 66.9175 INR/QAR 0.0544 USD/TRY 3.4689 TRY/QAR 1.0497 USD/ZAR 13.6150 ZAR/QAR 0.2675 USD/BRL 3.3377 BRL/QAR 1.0910 FX Commentary USD fell against most major currencies with dollar index down 0.6% as investors remained cautious ahead of the Fed meet and were concerned that the rate hike driven rally in dollar may have gone too far. CAD strengthened to a seven week high against its US counterpart due to higher oil prices on the back of weekend deal between OPEC and non-OPEC members. EUR rose against greenback after German Economy Ministry released a bullish forecast about German economy in Q4-16. JPY weakened as machine tool orders data which is considered as a proxy for manufacturing sector capital spending ahead came in weaker than expected. Commodity linked AUD and NZD posted strong gains on back of strength in crude and copper prices. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.43 0.61 0.68 0.96 1.65 (0.41) (0.38) (0.37) (0.32) (0.08) LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% QAIBOR 1.12 1.23 1.39 1.72 2.14 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.22 1.80 2.03 2.42 2.0% EIBOR 0.40 0.54 0.80 1.44 2.17 BMIBOR 0.45 0.65 1.00 1.58 2.05 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.13 1.38 2.00 2.38% 0.0% 0.66% 0.38% 1.57% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 2.87% 2.87% 2.02% 2.42% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 4.60% 3.16% 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 26.0 4.4 Turkey 286.0 29.1 UK 33.0 (2.4) Brazil 291.1 (62.4) Germany 23.2 5.1 Egypt 453.5 (23.2) France 39.0 0.4 Abu Dhabi Italy 163.3 14.8 Greece 912.1 Russia 192.0 Japan 33.0 2.0% 1.37% 2.12% 1.89% 2.65% 2.58% 2.13% 1.86% 1.61% 1.0% 2.33% 1.02% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 62.5 (41.5) Bahrain 297.7 (102.3) (32.1) Dubai 149.7 (67.3) (63.3) Qatar 81.2 (37.8) (5.0) Saudi Arabia 117.0 (70.0) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 10:00 Germany CPI MoM Nov F 0.10% 0.10% 10:00 Germany CPI YoY Nov F 0.80% 0.80% 12:00 Italy Industrial Production MoM Oct 0.20% (0.80%) 12:30 UK CPI MoM Nov 0.20% 0.10% 12:30 UK CPI YoY Nov 1.10% 0.90% 12:30 UK CPI Core YoY Nov 1.30% 1.20% 12:30 UK PPI Output NSA MoM Nov 0.20% 0.60% 12:30 UK PPI Output NSA YoY Nov 2.50% 2.10% 13:00 Germany ZEW Survey Current Situation Dec 59 58.8 13:00 Germany ZEW Survey Expectations Dec 14 13.8 16:30 US Import Price Index MoM Nov (0.40%) 0.50% 02:50 Japan Tankan Large Mfg Index 4Q 10 6 02:50 Japan Tankan Large Mfg Outlook 4Q 9 6 02:50 Japan Tankan Large Non-Mfg Index 4Q 19 18 02:50 Japan Tankan Large Non-Mfg Outlook 4Q 18 16 02:50 Japan Tankan Large All Industry Capex 4Q 6.10% 6.30% 07:30 Japan Industrial Production MoM Oct F - 0.10% Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE December 13 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Mannai Corp. Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.4 9.2 0.0 8.7 1.7 5.8 4.9 3.3 0.0 4.2 6.5 1.9 6.0 3.5 6.4 7.6 5.1 6.0 5.3 0.0 9.1 4.2 5.1 5.7 7.0 3.2 4.5 4.4 3.4 2.2 6.8 4.0 4.3 5.0 5.4 2.2 2.9 7.8 2.6 6.8 3.2 2.0 7.7 4.4 3.0 2.2 2.9 2.3 5.4 5.6 5.1 3.9 P/B Ratio (x) 1.7 0.7 2.2 1.0 2.6 1.0 2.2 0.8 0.9 1.7 1.7 2.0 1.0 1.7 1.4 1.9 2.6 1.2 1.9 1.2 0.8 4.1 0.7 1.7 1.1 1.5 2.0 1.4 3.2 2.8 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.0 0.9 2.6 0.7 2.3 1.7 0.7 1.4 1.1 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.7 1.4 2.1 1.6 0.7 1.1 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 12.4 17.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.2 (H) (‫)م‬ 10.7 12.6 (M) (‫)س‬ (H) (‫)م‬ 11.2 11.8 10.5 27.5 11.1 7.2 21.4 21.7 12.1 11.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.8 13.6 5.8 11.3 13.6 34.2 20.3 19.8 15.4 24.3 10.6 10.8 18.3 17.2 9.3 19.8 4.2 12.7 12.3 12.8 24.0 16.3 12.6 18.6 14.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 23.0 15.5 13.2 11.4 12.6 13.8 EPS (QR) 3.4 1.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 4.8 0.2 1.6 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.0 9.1 5.3 14.5 0.4 5.9 10.9 3.1 8.1 2.1 12.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.7 13.5 6.5 1.0 0.9 5.5 0.8 14.5 2.3 4.1 7.7 2.6 1.2 2.0 4.4 11.1 4.1 5.3 2.5 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.0 6.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.4 1.8 7.8 2.8 3.2 BV/Share (QR) 25.0 43.6 9.3 36.6 24.7 16.9 16.4 20.5 10.3 58.6 37.0 77.2 10.0 39.3 55.3 35.1 66.7 21.4 76.8 8.5 14.3 15.9 106.9 44.2 12.4 21.1 55.1 11.2 70.1 20.0 31.9 50.2 24.4 20.9 21.3 33.1 72.5 22.0 38.8 46.7 11.2 13.2 30.3 17.2 70.9 5.7 23.6 25.1 15.0 120.1 32.4 27.9 Stock Price (QR) 42.0 32.5 20.7 34.6 64.4 17.3 35.6 15.4 9.7 102.0 61.9 152.0 10.0 78.0 66.1 175.6 25.2 143.1 10.0 11.1 64.2 78.3 13.6 31.0 112.0 16.1 223.0 56.0 44.0 83.3 20.0 18.5 87.1 47.3 51.4 32.2 15.7 13.9 19.5 99.0 9.5 53.0 23.2 88.7 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4