GCC Daily Market Update - 1 September

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 1 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,171.0 18,400.9 4,771.1 6,781.5 10,592.7 4,438.2 75,967.6 16,887.4 22,976.9 3,085.5 28,452.2 (5.2) (53.4) (4.9) (39.3) (65.0) (19.3) (151.2) 162.0 (39.2) 10.8 109.2 (0.2) (0.3) (0.1) (0.6) (0.6) (0.4) (0.2) 1.0 (0.2) 0.4 0.4 (0.1) (0.2) 0.9 0.8 2.5 (0.0) 0.7 1.9 5.0 3.6 1.4 6.2 5.6 3.9 8.6 (1.4) (4.3) 5.9 (11.3) 4.8 (12.8) 8.9 10,989.8 6,079.5 4,471.0 3,504.4 5,419.7 5,735.0 1,142.2 1,552.5 2,955.3 (324.8) (50.1) (23.4) (8.8) (1.8) (36.3) 3.7 6.3 (12.5) (2.9) (0.8) (0.5) (0.3) (0.0) (0.6) 0.3 0.4 (0.4) 3.6 (3.5) (2.3) 0.6 (0.6) (1.9) (1.2) 2.2 (0.6) 5.4 (12.0) 3.8 11.2 (3.5) 6.1 (6.1) 5.9 5.6 47.0 44.7 2.9 1,307.9 207.0 (1.3) (1.7) 0.1 (5.1) 0.1 (2.8) (3.6) 2.1 (0.4) 0.0 0.1 0.4 (0.6) (0.0) 0.0 26.3 21.2 22.8 23.4 (3.0) Source: Bloomberg Global Most of the global markets closed lower expressing caution ahead of the crucial employment numbers to be released on Friday, which will give direction to rate hike prospects. US indices were weighed by energy companies, which fell in response to a 3% drop in oil prices. European stocks fell as economic data out of the Eurozone was relatively downbeat. Inflation came in less than expected at 0.2%, while unemployment rate showed no improvement. The Stoxx Europe 600 index edged down 0.3% due to fall in energy stocks, however the financial stocks were upbeat on reports of merger talks between Deutsche Bank AG and Commerzbank AG which helped lift the shares of the German banking heavyweights. Japan’s Nikkei bucked the broader trend and rose 1% as investors cheered a stronger dollar, which helps Japanese exporters. GCC Most of the GCC markets fell on Wednesday in response to fall in oil prices. Saudi Arabia’s Index fell 0.8% as all traded petrochemical shares retreated with index major Saudi Basic Industries falling 0.9%. The plunge was also spurred by Consumer discretionary stocks which are being impacted by Saudi Arabia's economic slowdown. Abu Dhabi’s Index fell 0.5% dragged down by blue chip stocks, while Dubai's index edged down 0.3% led by GFH Financial which fell 1%. Qatar QE index plunged 2.9% as tightening bank liquidity pushed financial stocks lower and some investors cashed in gains before an upgrade to emergingmarket status with FTSE Russell. The sell-off was broad based, with all sector in red. Selling was more pronounced in the Insurance (-3.74%), Banks and Financial services (3.1 %) and Realty (-2.8%) sector. In terms of volume, Banking, Real Estate and Industrials stocks together constituted about 76% of the total traded. Domestic and Gulf institutions turned net sellers in the bourse. Out of the 44 companies listed, 43 exchanged hands, of which 35 declined, 11 advanced and 3 stayed unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 14.5 1.7 3.7 143.6 DSM 20 15.3 1.7 3.7 135.2 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 14.3 1.4 3.9 615.2 UAE (ADX) 11.9 1.4 5.4 57.1 UAE (DFM) 12.5 1.3 4.3 90.2 GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Kuwait (KSE) 18.7 1.0 4.4 22.3 Oman (MSM) 10.0 1.1 5.1 10.4 Bahrain (BAX) 9.3 0.4 4.9 0.8 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Close Price Top Gainers Qatar Ind. Manufacture 44.1 Qatar National Cement 87.8 Doha Insurance Co 20.4 Islamic Holding Group 65.0 Salam Int. Investment 12.0 Top Losers Qatar Cinema & Film 31.5 Commercial Bank Qsc 42.0 United Development 20.4 Industries Qatar 112.0 Qatar General Ins. & Re 45.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 10.7 (5.3) (2.9) (17.4) 1.1 (3.5) (10.0) (2.4) (5.4) (1.1) (5.0) (5.0) (4.3) (2.0) (4.3) (7.4) (8.5) (1.5) 0.8 (3.1) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 0.9 (7.1) (17.6) (31.6) (4.4) 7.8 14.6 0.3 42.0 103.4 11.6 11.0 11.7 315.0 11.7 (19.8) 0.1 13.1 (24.9) 460.4 20.1 (11.2) 1,101.0 15.5 (15.0) 544.2 17.0 (12.4) 0.5 4.4 Qatar DSM Index 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 5/Jun 20.0 10,989.8 10.0 0.0 19/Jun 3/Jul 17/Jul Index Volume (mn) 31/Jul 14/Aug 28/Aug Index Value Source: Bloomberg QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Closing Level 3,017.4 6,507.9 3,300.0 4,557.5 2,643.4 1,269.4 2,600.7 1D Change (%) (3.1) (0.3) (2.5) (3.7) (2.8) (0.7) (1.3) Buy (%) 16.8 7.6 24.4 6.7 68.9 75.6 Sell (%) 11.9 35.2 47.1 4.3 48.6 52.9 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 1 , 2016 Saudi projects is 88 projects with a capital of USD 537mn. The total Chinese investments in Saudi Arabia reached USD 5.6bn by end of 2015. (Source: Aawsat) GLOBAL NEWS  US pending home sales index rose 1.3% MoM to 111.3 in Jul-16 compared to 109.9 in June-16, signaling steady demand amid low interest rates and rising employment. Pending sales were up across all region in US, except in Midwest region where it fell 2.9% on a monthly basis for the same period. (Source: WSJ)  US private employers added 177,000 jobs in August-16 compared to 217,000 gain in July-16, according to a report by the ADP National Employment. The biggest gains came from professional and business services which added 53,000 jobs, while manufacturing sector lost 5,000 jobs for the same period. (Source: CNBC)  The remittances sent from Saudi Arabia fell by 35% MoM to SAR 10.3bn in July-16, according to the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency. (Source: Zawya)  64 US lawmakers have suggested that a USD 1.15bn US arms sale to Saudi Arabia be delayed, in response to the worsening humanitarian crisis in Yemen. (Source: Defence News)  Saudi Arabia’s Riyad Bank stated that its financial statements conform to the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). The bank further added that the IFRS adoption has no financial impact. (Source: English Mubasher)  Euro zone inflation remain unchanged at 0.2% in July-16 from June-16 figures, as food, industrial goods and services prices grew at a slower pace during the month. Core inflation, which excludes the most volatile components of unprocessed food and energy, was also unchanged at 0.8% for the same period. (Source: Reuters)  Saudi Arabian Oil Company is expected to sign a non-binding agreement with Japan’s Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc.’s banking unit and its two biggest Japanese peers plan as the state-run firm considers an IPO. (Source: Bloomberg)  China manufacturing sector PMI rose to 50.4 in August-16 supported by expansion in factory output and new orders. (Source: Reuters)  Saudi Aramco is in negotiations with China National Petroleum Corporation to build the Yunnan refinery in China, its Chairman said.  India's economy expanded at a slower pace of 7.1% YoY in Q2-16 compared to an expansion of 7.9% YoY in Q1-16. The slowdown in growth was due to contraction in mining and a sluggish farm sector. (Source: Reuters)  India's fiscal deficit stood at INR 3.93tn (USD 58.69bn), which is 73.7% of the budgeted target for FY-17 compared to 69.3% during the same period in FY-16. The net tax receipts in the first four months of FY-17 were INR 2.22tn. (Source: Reuters) GCC NEWS  The Abu Dhabi General Services Company (Musanada) has announced that 15 infrastructure development projects worth USD 1.1bn have been awarded to nine contractors. The projects will see the development of roads and residential neighborhood infrastructure on the outskirts of the UAE capital city and in the Western Region. (Source: Construction News)  Abu Dhabi's Al Jaber Group plans to raise AED 2.35bn by the end of 2017 by selling its stake in its construction JV, ALEC and using a prime hotel in the Emirates as collateral for a loan. (Source: Reuters) (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Electricity Co plans to privatize its assets by the end of the year, as part of a drive to increase efficiency in the Kingdom's utilities, the company’s Chairman said. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Public Transport Co. signed a murabaha financing deal worth SAR 117.5mn (USD 31.3mn) with Al Rajhi Bank to purchase 100 Mercedes-Benz buses of 2017 edition.  Container volumes at Oman's Sohar Port rose by more than 18.6% YoY to over 313,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) in H1-16 from 264,000 TEU) in H1-15. The rise was mainly due to significant infrastructure investments in the country. The break bulk cargo also grew by 43% in H1-16 at the Port. (Source: Arabian Business)  Bahrain-based International General Insurance Holdings Limited reported gross written premiums of USD 126.8mn for the H1-16 as compared to USD 122mn for the same period in 2015. Net underwriting profits increased to USD 28.4mn, registering a growth of 39% YoY. (Source: BNA) QATAR NEWS  Dubai Holding announced that it has taken the decision to relocate Mall of the World to a site on Sheikh Mohammad bin Zayed Road. The project is costing AED 80bn (USD 22bn). The decision to move the site was taken so that it can be based in an area where its positive tourism contribution can be fully realised. (Source: Arabian Business)  The domestic loans-to-deposit ratio at Qatari banks worsened to 130.4% in July-16 from 126.8% in June-16. Total deposits in commercial banks rose to QAR 685.0bn in July-16 compared to QAR 683.6bn in the previous month. Total loan rose to QAR 799.3bn compared to QAR 783.5bn. (Source: Reuters)  Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) announced that the number of new companies joining the free zone rose by 16% YoY in H1-15 with total number of active registered firms now at 1,539. The number of financial firms grew 11%, while non-financial firms rose 22 YoY during the period. (Source: Gulf News)  Qatar’s foreign exchange peg is least threatened due to its current account surplus and a currency’s devaluation may not be feasible on high external debt, according to a report by UBS. (Source: Gulf Times)  The total net profits of the investment companies listed on the Dubai Financial Market (DFM) and the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) fell 32.7% YoY to AED 349.2mn (USD 95.0mn) in Q2-16. The decline in oil prices negatively affected the progress in real estate projects, decreasing the profits of some of the sector’s companies. (Source: Mubasher)  Fitch Ratings affirmed Etihad Airways’ long-term issuer default rating and senior unsecured rating at “A”, with a stable outlook. The ratings reflect Etihad’s strong strategic, operational and legal links with the airline's sole indirect shareholder - Abu Dhabi (AA/Stable). (Source: English Mubasher)  Total trade exchange and mutual investments between Saudi Arabia and China reached USD 71.3bn. The number of common Chinese-  The Public Works Authority (Ashghal) has completed the construction of a new pumping station in the Labour City, a rising main and Treated Sewerage Effluent (TSE) line at a cost of QAR 1.1bn. (Source: The Peninsula)  QNB’s proposed dollar-denominated deal is being arranged by Barclays, HSBC, Mizuho, Mitsubishi UFJ Securities and Standard Chartered, as well as QNB’s own investment banking unit. The issue is worth at least USD 500m, with duration of 5 years. (Source: Gulf News)  Qatar Airways is poised to make a major jetliner purchase from Boeing Co and Airbus Group planes in order to keep the average age of the fleet young, the Chief Executive officer said. (Source: Gulf Times)  The City Center Doha, a subsidiary of Aamal Company is among Qatar’s most popular shopping destinations with an average daily footfall of around 45,000, according to a report by CBRE. The mall maintains stable tenancies and high occupancy, despite of increased competition and weaker consumer confidence. (Source: The Peninsula) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 1 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1188 USD/QAR 3.6413 103.4300 EUR/QAR 4.0739 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3168 JPY/QAR 0.0352 USD/CHF 0.9839 GBP/QAR 4.7949 USD/CAD 1.3105 CHF/QAR 3.7009 AUD/USD 0.7517 CAD/QAR 2.7786 NZD/USD 0.7250 AUD/QAR 2.7372 USD/INR 66.4637 INR/QAR 0.0548 USD/TRY 2.9579 TRY/QAR 1.2310 USD/ZAR 14.7313 ZAR/QAR 0.2472 USD/BRL 3.2267 BRL/QAR 1.1285 FX Commentary The USD started on a strong note after the ADP National Employment Report on Wednesday showed that US private employers added 177,000 jobs in August, slightly above the 175,000 forecasted. However, it pared most of its gains to close marginally lower as weak manufacturing data dented some optimism about US economic growth ahead of a highly anticipated jobs report on Friday. The EUR closed lower against the USD after data on Wednesday showed euro zone inflation was stable in August, contrary to expectations of a slight rise. JPY continued its downward trajectory, with the fall further aggravated by a flat reading on Japanese Preliminary Industrial Production, which was expected to grow by 0.7% in July. CAD fell marginally against greenback weighed by sluggish oil prices. Pessimistic outlook on Canada’s Q2-16 GDP also impacted the currency. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.42 0.44 0.52 0.84 1.56 (0.40) (0.38) (0.37) (0.30) (0.05) LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% QAIBOR 1.03 1.15 1.39 1.57 1.94 4.0% SAIBOR NA NA 2.06 2.33 2.62 2.0% EIBOR 0.35 0.46 0.71 1.23 1.79 BMIBOR 0.43 0.65 0.95 1.33 1.83 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.25 1.56 2.19 0.0% 3.94% 1.82% 2.22% 2.22% 1.08% 1.33% 1.55% 2.22% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 0.81% 0.61% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 26.6 6.6 Turkey 245.4 (38.7) UK 33.8 (5.0) Brazil 259.5 (190.7) Germany 16.3 (7.0) Egypt 395.8 (135.1) France 29.4 (7.4) Abu Dhabi 75.2 (38.8) 136.2 (3.9) Bahrain 386.1 21.6 2.0% 2.70% 1.05% 1.0% 0.0% 1.93% 1.60% 2.23% 0.84% 2 Yrs 1.32% 1.22% 1.45% 1.70% Italy Greece 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 1,035.9 (405.8) Dubai 160.0 (62.8) Russia 220.3 (90.9) Qatar 91.6 (26.6) Japan 32.5 (15.5) Saudi Arabia 150.0 (15.0) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 08:00 Japan Vehicle Sales YoY Aug -- (0.20%) 09:00 Russia Markit Russia PMI Mfg Aug 50.1 49.5 10:45 Italy Markit/ADACI Italy Manufacturing PMI Aug 51.2 51.2 10:50 France Markit France Manufacturing PMI Aug F 48.5 48.5 10:55 Germany Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI Aug F 53.6 53.6 11:00 Eurozone Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Aug F 51.8 51.8 11:30 UK Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Aug 49 48.2 15:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Aug-27th 265k 261k 15:30 US Continuing Claims Aug-20th 2145k 2145k 16:00 Russia Gold and Forex Reserve Aug-26th -- 398.2b 16:30 Canada RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI Aug -- 51.9 16:45 US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Aug-28th -- 45.3 16:45 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI 17:00 US Construction Spending MoM 17:00 US ISM Manufacturing 17:00 US ISM Prices Paid 02:50 Japan Monetary Base YoY Aug F 52.1 52.1 Jul 0.50% (0.60%) Aug 52 52.6 Aug 54.8 55 Aug -- 24.70% Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 1 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mannai Corp. Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.4 6.8 0.0 7.7 1.6 5.6 4.5 2.7 0.0 3.8 6.0 1.7 5.4 3.1 5.4 4.1 4.3 5.0 0.0 8.4 4.1 4.7 5.0 6.1 2.8 4.3 5.9 3.7 3.4 2.3 6.9 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.9 2.1 2.9 6.8 2.5 5.9 2.6 1.8 7.0 3.7 2.9 0.0 2.2 2.1 5.0 5.4 4.8 3.5 P/B Ratio (x) 1.7 1.0 2.5 1.1 2.6 1.1 2.5 0.9 1.1 2.0 1.9 2.3 1.1 1.9 2.7 3.4 1.7 2.1 1.4 0.8 4.5 0.8 2.0 1.3 1.7 2.2 1.6 1.7 3.4 2.8 1.4 1.8 2.1 1.1 1.0 2.8 0.7 2.8 1.8 0.8 1.8 1.1 0.7 1.3 1.5 2.1 1.6 2.4 1.7 0.8 1.2 1.8 P/E Ratio (x) 12.4 16.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.9 (H) (‫)م‬ 10.0 13.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 48.5 12.7 12.8 11.9 30.2 12.4 22.6 26.8 14.5 11.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.8 14.7 6.8 13.2 15.4 18.9 17.8 8.1 20.1 15.8 23.6 11.5 11.0 16.8 21.5 11.6 20.5 4.6 13.2 13.3 18.0 29.6 14.3 16.4 24.1 12.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 20.5 16.9 14.0 10.7 12.8 14.8 EPS (QR) 3.4 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 5.0 0.2 1.8 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.2 9.0 5.2 14.2 0.4 6.0 4.1 8.2 2.4 13.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.5 12.6 6.3 1.0 1.9 6.6 10.4 0.9 14.1 2.3 3.8 8.0 3.0 1.1 1.8 4.4 10.2 4.5 5.1 2.1 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.9 8.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.8 3.4 1.8 8.7 3.0 3.3 BV/Share (QR) 24.1 44.1 9.5 35.2 24.7 16.4 15.7 20.5 10.3 56.6 35.5 74.2 9.9 38.1 34.9 64.7 20.9 73.5 8.6 14.2 14.6 104.7 41.2 12.2 21.0 53.8 52.6 11.0 65.7 19.5 30.3 48.4 24.3 20.8 21.0 32.4 70.7 21.0 37.9 46.0 11.0 13.1 30.0 16.9 69.9 5.8 23.4 24.2 14.5 115.6 31.2 27.1 Stock Price (QR) 41.5 44.4 23.4 39.2 64.9 17.9 39.0 18.3 11.6 113.2 66.8 169.5 11.2 92.5 219.0 35.0 153.3 12.1 11.9 65.7 85.9 15.5 36.3 117.0 84.4 18.8 222.9 53.9 43.7 87.2 23.6 20.3 90.7 47.0 59.2 37.4 19.3 14.8 21.5 103.1 12.2 57.4 25.0 93.4 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4