MENA Market Report - 14 September

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , September 14, 2016 Overview Regional Markets: MENA markets have remained closed for the past three days to celebrate Eid, however the sentiments in equity markets have tur ned slightly negative during that period. Investors are confused about the Fed's tightening policy during the September meeting as the probability of raising interest rates in the latest meeting continues to fluctuate, which has dominated the movement in equity markets. Further, the weakness in oil prices is also weighing on investor sentiments. Regional markets are expected to absorb the sentiments seen in the past three sessions, which is likely to drag the indexes lower in the next two days of the week. The previous week for the regional markets was fairly positive as six out of the eight indexes closed in green while two ended on the losing side. Saudi Arabia was the best performing index in the region for the week as it appreciated by 2.6% as investors capitalized on the recent weakness to buy into some quality stocks that are showing the potential of growing in a challenging environment. Qatar was the worst performer as it was down by 2.8% for the week as investors booked profit after getting clarity on stocks to be included in the emerging index. The losses seen in the previous week extended the monthly losses to 4.1%, again being the worst in the region. UAE markets ended the week on a positive note as Dubai was up by 0.2% and Abu Dhabi by 0.8%, further extending the gains for the month. Egypt closed up by 0.6% for the week as investors continued to remain hopeful on further reforms by the government to boost the economic activity and revive investor confidence. International Markets: US markets closed on a negative note as Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P were all down by 1.4%, 1.1% and 1.5% respectively for the d ay. European markets closed on a negative note as FTSE, DAX and CAC were down by 0.5%, 0.4% and 1.2% respectively for the day. At the time of writing this report, Asian markets have opened on a mixed note as Nikkei and Shanghai were down by 0.4% and 0.5% respectively, while Hang Seng is up by 0.2%. Headlines (WW) US agrees 10-year military aid deal with Israel worth at least USD 38 billion (GCC) Gulf-listed firms' earnings fall 8% in first 6 months (WW) US Household Income Grew 5.2% in 2015, Breaking Pattern of Stagnation (SA) Saudi Arabia tops US as world's biggest oil producer (WW) IEA warns of slowing oil demand and rising supply for this year and next (SA) STC Enhances VSAT Connectivity for Saudi Arabia’s Oil & Gas Market with Intelsat (WW) Wells Fargo Eclipsed by JPMorgan as World’s Most Valuable Bank (SA) Saudi Arabia seeks to expand US operations amid uneasy relations with US (WW) UK Power Price Goes From Nothing to 3-Year High in 24 Hours (SA) Taxi firms in Saudi Arabia raise prices by 50% on Arafat day (WW) UK jobs market showing ‘cracks in the ice’ after Brexit vote (AE) Mara Xpress to spend USD 6 million in GCC expansion by end of Q1 (WW) UK Inflation Holds at 0.6% as Import Price Pressures Build (AE) RAK hotels in demand over Eid Al Adha (WW) China’s economy shows signs of stabilization in August (AE) Consumer-led Growth Witnessed in UAE Retail Industry (WW) Japan's big manufacturers turn optimistic in a sign economy picking up (QA) Better-placed Qatar corporates to see 'flat' full earnings in 2016 (CMD) Oil falls after forecasts show darkening outlook (QA) Non-hydrocarbons GDP share of 65% to cushion oil fall impact on Qatar (CMD) Gold edges up as dovish Fed comments lower rate hike prospects (QA) Qatar issues USD 9 billion in capital markets in ’16: S&P Global (FX) Sterling dips after UK CPI inflation softer-than-expected (KW) New Contract in Kuwait Marks Largest Ever for Huddersfield Creative Business (FX) Dollar recovers after Fed's Brainard quells rate rise chatter (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) MENA Markets Index (Thursday Closing) Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,519.22 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 11.7% ˄ ˄ ˄ Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,516.38 0.2% 0.8% 1.0% 4.9% ˅ ˄ ˄ Saudi (SASEIDX) 6,176.53 0.6% 2.6% 1.6% -10.6% ˅ ˅ ˅ Kuwait (KWSE) 5,429.41 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% -3.3% ˅ ˄ ˄ Egypt (EGX30) 8,188.20 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 16.9% ˅ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 10,534.10 -0.9% -2.8% -4.1% 1.0% ˅ ˄ ˄ Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,120.13 -0.7% -2.0% -1.9% -7.9% ˅ ˄ ˅ Oman (MSM30) 5,777.66 -0.1% 1.1% 0.7% 6.9% ˅ ˅ ˄ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 222 257 354 71 95 120 86,382 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 71 65 95 37 39 50 121,006 Saudi (SASEIDX) 120 200 247 550 893 1,165 383,924 Kuwait (KWSE) 67 71 115 24 30 36 75,340 Egypt (EGX30) 10 198 244 49 86 110 44,433 Qatar (DSM) 10 6 7 119 69 77 155,432 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 2 3 2 1 2 1 17,999 Oman (MSM30) 12 15 20 9 8 10 22,594 Index * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters 1
2. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , September 14, 2016 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 PB 11.2 12.1 11.0 11.0 9.7 386.2 8.7 300 8 239.3 188.3 178.1 4 1.3 Current 489.3 13.4 12 Previous 600 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.6 - - 0.8 1.1 Bahrain Oman - 0 106.9 87.2 1.3 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Year to Date Perfomance Dividend Yield 8% 27% 6.3% 18% 5.6% 6% 4.9% 4.7% 4.6% 4.6% 3.8% 4% 16.9% 11.7% 9% 6.9% 4.9% 1.0% 0% 2.4% 2% -3.3% -9% -7.9% -10.6% -18% 0% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , September 14, 2016 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) COMMERCIAL BANK OF DUBAI PSC 5.00 -5.66% 2 10 116 DRAKE AND SCULL INTERNATIONAL 0.51 -2.28% 53,040 27,581 238 944 DAR AL TAKAFUL PJSC 0.98 -1.51% 764 755 0.94% 2,940 6,262 AMLAK FINANCE PJSC 1.35 -0.74% 3,575 4,844 0.75% 1,824 2,453 AIR ARABIA PJSC 1.38 -0.72% 2,371 3,284 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) ABU DHABI NATIONAL ENERGY CO 0.53 3.92% 73 38 BANK OF SHARJAH PJSC 1.35 -5.59% 50 70 SUDATEL TELECOM GROUP LTD 0.54 3.85% 485 257 METHAQ TAKAFUL INSURANCE CO 0.88 -2.22% 307 273 GULF PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES 2.23 1.36% 21 47 ALDAR PROPERTIES PJSC 2.71 -1.81% 16,585 45,359 SHARJAH ISLAMIC BANK PJSC 1.55 1.31% 88 136 UNION CEMENT CO PSC 1.16 -1.69% 17 20 ESHRAQ PROPERTIES CO PJSC 0.82 1.23% 25,999 21,189 RAK PROPERTIES PJSC 0.60 -1.64% 3,692 2,234 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) SAUDI RESEARCH AND MARKETING 29.60 6.09% 1,029 29,576 MALATH COOPERATIVE INSURANCE 10.25 -2.84% 956 9,939 LAZURDE FOR JEWELRY CO 26.40 6.02% 1,838 47,137 AMANA COOPERATIVE INSURANCE CO 8.55 -2.29% 1,348 11,659 SAUDI INTERNATIONAL PETROCHEMI 13.95 3.33% 413 5,669 ARABIAN PIPES CO SJSC 14.90 -1.97% 1,247 18,770 SAUDI GROUND SERVICES CO 44.00 3.29% 374 16,203 NATIONAL INDUSTRIALIZATION CO JSC 13.25 -1.85% 2,720 36,376 YAMAMA CEMENT CO SJSC 21.00 3.19% 408 8,437 AL AHLIA FOR COOPERATIVE 5.95 -1.65% 1,579 9,471 Top Gainers Close DoD % Volume Value Close DoD % Volume Value KUWAIT REMAL REAL ESTATE CO KPSC 36.00 7.46% 2,199 76 ARABI GROUP HOLDINGS KSCP 55.00 -5.17% 87 5 AL-MASSALEH REAL ESTATE CO KSCP 38.00 7.04% 15 1 TAAMEER REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT 21.00 -4.55% 50 1 KUWAIT AND GULF LINK TRANSPORT 44.00 4.76% 10 0 AL SAFAT ENERGY HOLDING CO KPSC 36.50 -3.95% 343 13 INOVEST BSC 66.00 4.76% 886 57 KUWAIT RESORTS COMPANY KPSC 82.00 -3.53% 52 4 EKTTITAB HOLDING CO KSCP 39.00 4.00% 5 0 WETHAQ TAKAFUL INSURANCE CO 30.50 -3.17% 22 1 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) ARAB DRUG COMPANY FOR PHARMA. 7.09 8.91% 52 353 MISR FERTILIZERS PRODUCTION CO 36.10 -9.05% 80 3,021 EL EBOUR COMPANY REAL ESTATE 3.28 8.25% 3 10 AL ARAFA FOR INVESTMENT 0.12 -7.69% 21 3 ISMAILIA DEVELOPMENT AND REAL 3.17 5.67% 7 22 LECICO EGYPT SAE 2.32 -5.31% 74 176 SHOROUK FOR MODERN PRINTING 7.45 5.37% 2 16 EGYPTIAN FINANCIAL 7.86 -4.50% 309 2,486 NATIONAL BANK OF KUWAIT EGYPT 21.64 4.95% 1 22 NAEEM HOLDING FOR INVESTMENTS 0.46 -4.17% 16 8 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) DLALA BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT 22.75 2.94% 85 1,915 QATAR ISLAMIC BANK SAQ 102.40 -3.67% 232 24,188 AL KHALIJ COMMERCIAL BANK QSC 18.00 2.86% 50 884 DOHA INSURANCE CO QSC 20.65 -2.50% 1 10 MEDICARE GROUP QSC 91.40 2.70% 40 3,585 COMMERCIAL BANK QSC 38.40 -2.41% 291 11,301 AHLI BANK QSC 41.60 1.46% 12 515 OOREDOO QSC 96.50 -2.33% 275 26,845 VODAFONE QATAR QSC 11.35 1.34% 1,125 12,687 EZDAN HOLDING GROUP QSC 17.80 -2.09% 1,146 20,609 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) SHUAA CAPITAL PSC 0.82 5.67% 38,312 30,573 MARKA PJSC 1.18 4.42% 100 ARAMEX PJSC 3.99 1.53% DUBAI INVESTMENTS PJSC 2.14 DUBAI FINANCIAL MARKET PJSC 1.35 Dubai Top Gainers Abu Dhabi Top Gainers Qatar Egypt Kuwait Saudi Arabia Top Gainers Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , September 14, 2016 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corp SJSC SA 67,611 84.50 0.6% 10.1% 2,531 57,042 92.75 59.50 15 1.6 6.5% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 47,005 19.85 0.8% 23.3% 1,151 6,221 20.20 14.10 19 3.9 4.0% 3 Qatar National Bank SAQ QA 35,767 155.10 -1.1% 6.4% 579 24,683 169.80 122.50 11 1.8 1.6% 4 Saudi Telecom Co SJSC SA 30,805 57.75 0.4% -15.4% 496 7,645 69.75 55.50 14 1.9 6.9% 5 Al Rajhi Banking and Investment Corp SA 24,921 57.50 0.0% 10.6% 1,228 18,833 62.75 44.70 12 1.9 2.6% 6 Saudi Electricity Co SJSC SA 21,114 19.00 -0.8% 20.6% 1,686 8,541 21.80 12.40 51 1.3 3.7% 7 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 19,203 36.00 1.4% -29.4% 423 4,060 57.00 34.00 8 1.2 4.3% 8 Industries Qatar QSC QA 17,778 107.00 -0.4% -3.7% 481 14,139 135.00 88.00 16 2.0 4.7% 9 DP World Ltd AE 15,397 18.55 0.2% -8.6% 104 526 21.50 16.05 16 1.8 1.6% 10 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 14,873 60.00 0.4% 8.1% 292 4,667 68.75 40.80 0 6.0 0.0% 11 First Gulf Bank PJSC AE 14,826 12.10 0.0% -4.3% 710 2,340 14.25 9.90 9 1.6 8.3% 12 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 13,939 7.15 0.6% 25.7% 6,409 12,478 7.46 4.22 12 1.3 2.1% 13 National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC AE 13,192 9.30 0.8% 16.8% 659 1,670 10.35 6.86 10 1.1 4.8% 14 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 12,967 17.80 -2.1% 11.9% 1,146 5,601 20.24 12.10 27 1.6 2.8% 15 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 12,379 8.18 0.0% 10.5% 15 33 9.19 6.25 7 0.9 4.9% 16 Almarai Co SJSC SA 11,842 55.50 -0.4% -5.4% 135 2,003 66.56 40.88 22 3.7 1.6% 17 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 11,235 600.00 0.0% -19.3% 431 860 799.36 550.00 12 1.1 4.6% 18 Kingdom Holding Co SA 10,823 10.95 0.5% -30.3% 72 209 21.20 9.80 66 1.5 4.6% 19 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 10,752 34.50 -0.3% 3.9% 651 5,987 43.20 25.70 107 1.5 0.0% 20 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 10,188 19.10 -0.5% -18.2% 626 3,188 24.05 17.05 7 1.0 4.7% 21 Emaar Malls Group PJSC AE 9,922 2.80 0.7% 1.4% 745 568 3.25 2.02 20 2.4 3.6% 22 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 9,797 6.43 1.1% -2.4% 1,635 2,863 7.97 5.20 8 1.2 7.0% 23 Ooredoo QSC QA 8,489 96.50 -2.3% 28.7% 275 7,286 107.00 60.00 12 1.4 3.1% 24 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 8,481 10.60 1.4% -14.5% 730 2,063 14.75 10.15 8 0.8 6.6% 25 Emirates Integrated Telecomm. AE 8,240 6.62 -0.3% 29.8% 1,440 2,596 6.99 4.89 16 3.9 6.5% 26 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 8,098 465.00 0.0% -5.3% 402 621 545.45 395.45 13 1.4 3.3% 27 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 7,681 19.20 -0.5% -22.4% 54 277 30.60 17.35 7 1.0 3.9% 28 Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Co SJSC SA 7,501 67.50 0.7% -18.4% 230 4,144 98.25 58.00 18 4.4 8.9% 29 Masraf Al Rayan QSC QA 7,302 35.45 -0.1% -5.7% 1,392 13,558 45.50 28.60 13 2.3 4.9% 30 Banque Saudi Fransi SJSC SA 7,295 22.70 2.9% -18.9% 91 551 33.40 20.10 7 1.0 4.6% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 499,423 4.3% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated under the DIFC Companies Law and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). 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