GCC Daily Market Update - 8 September

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 8 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,186.2 18,526.1 4,831.9 6,846.6 10,753.0 4,557.7 77,643.2 17,012.4 23,741.8 3,091.9 28,926.4 (0.3) (12.0) 2.3 20.5 65.8 27.7 (351.6) (69.5) (45.9) 1.2 (51.7) (0.0) (0.1) 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.6 (0.5) (0.4) (0.2) 0.0 (0.2) 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.0 1.5 2.7 2.2 0.7 3.3 0.2 1.7 7.0 6.3 5.2 9.7 0.1 (1.7) 8.2 (10.6) 8.3 (12.6) 10.8 10,634.9 6,139.4 4,507.2 3,517.9 5,413.4 5,783.1 1,128.0 1,527.9 3,003.5 (78.3) (51.0) (8.2) (26.3) 13.7 13.7 (0.1) (6.2) 3.2 (0.7) (0.8) (0.2) (0.7) 0.3 0.2 (0.0) (0.4) 0.1 (3.2) 1.0 0.8 0.4 (0.1) 0.8 (1.2) (0.3) 1.6 2.0 (11.2) 4.6 11.6 (3.6) 7.0 (7.2) 5.4 7.2 48.0 45.5 2.7 1,345.3 209.3 0.7 0.7 (0.0) (5.1) 0.9 1.5 1.5 (1.5) (0.4) 0.4 3.6 3.6 (6.8) 2.9 1.1 30.7 25.0 15.1 26.9 (2.0) Source: Bloomberg Global Global markets ended on a mixed note on Wednesday. US markets closed marginally lower with Consumer staples leading the fall after Sprouts Farmers Market cut earnings expectations, raising concerns about the impact of falling food prices on the sector’s earnings. The drop was somewhat offset by gains in Energy and Technology sectors. Energy shares tracked gains in oil prices, while Tech stocks were boosted by Apple, which rose after executives unveiled new products. Modestly positive picture of US economy painted by the Fed’s latest beige book report also supported the market. The Stoxx Europe 600 index was up 0.2% led by gains in oil and gas companies. The index was further supported after data showed softness in German Industrial Production raising prospects of monetary easing. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei Edged down 0.4% as yen edged higher, hurting shares of the country's export manufacturers. GCC Gulf markets remained muted amidst thin volumes ahead of market closures next week for Eid al-Adha holidays. Weakness in oil prices during the market hours also impacted the indices. Saudi Index fell 0.7% led by Petrochemical sector with sector major SABIC dropping 1.2 % in response to fall in oil prices. Dubai's index pulled back 0.7% with investors booking profits in small caps. Abu Dhabi's index edged down 0.2% as the most valuable company on the bourse Etisalat dropped 0.8%. Kuwait Index edged up 0.7% lifted by Telecommunications and Banking sectors. Qatar QE index closed weaker by 0.7% on Wednesday as selling pressure from gulf institutions increased, while buying support from their foreign counterparts remained weak. Profit booking was majorly observed in Telecom, Industrials and Insurance counters, amidst thin trading volumes ahead of a week long holiday for Eid al-Adha. Banking, Industrials and Realty scrips together accounted for about 79% of the total volume. More than 56% of the stocks were in the red with large caps leading the fall. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 14.0 1.6 3.9 69.8 DSM 20 14.8 1.6 3.8 63.5 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 14.5 1.4 3.9 667.1 UAE (ADX) 12.0 1.5 5.4 39.6 UAE (DFM) 12.6 1.3 4.3 68.5 Kuwait (KSE) 18.6 1.0 4.4 18.9 Oman (MSM) 10.1 1.1 5.0 5.3 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.4 0.4 4.9 0.6 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar & Oman Invest. Medicare Group Qatari Investors Group Al Ahli Bank Dlala Holding Top Losers Masraf Al Rayan Industries Qatar Commercial Bank Qsc National Leasing Qatar Elect. & Water Close Price 11.1 89.0 49.1 41.0 22.1 0.4 2.5 1.1 0.9 0.3 3.3 2.9 2.3 2.1 1.4 (9.9) (25.4) 30.2 (6.5) 19.5 (17.3) (46.9) 6.7 (7.6) 10.5 35.5 107.4 39.4 17.4 215.7 (1.0) (2.5) (0.9) (0.4) (4.0) (2.7) (2.3) (2.1) (2.0) (1.8) (5.6) (3.3) (14.3) 23.4 (0.3) (16.4) 1,134.4 12.6 (16.7) 351.7 16.3 (28.5) 250.2 18.9 4.5 101.6 NA 2.2 58.6 15.2 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 118.0 13.5 98.5 60.6 14.3 29.9 21.8 21.5 12.2 NA Qatar DSM Index 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 12/Jun 20.0 10,634.9 10.0 0.0 26/Jun 10/Jul 24/Jul Index Volume (mn) 7/Aug 21/Aug 4/Sep Index Value Closing Level 2,896.9 6,377.2 3,203.2 4,571.9 2,563.0 1,215.8 2,534.9 1D Change (%) (0.4) 0.3 (1.1) (0.9) (0.2) (1.1) (0.1) Buy (%) 26.2 21.5 47.7 12.2 40.1 52.3 Sell (%) 18.9 8.8 27.7 5.6 66.7 72.3 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 8 , 2016 impact on its finances. The deal is expected to be completed during Q4-16. (Source: Trade Arabia) GLOBAL NEWS  The gauge of world stocks (MSCI's all-country world index) hit its highest in more than a year and USD fell sharply against JPY on Wednesday as expectations of a rise in Federal Reserve interest rates receded after weak US economic data. Emerging market shares led the charge, touching their strongest levels since July-15. (Source: Reuters)  Moody’s said that outlook for the global reinsurance sector remains negative, reflecting the agency's expectations for the fundamental business conditions in the sector over the next 12 to 18 months. The agency further added that industry continues to be challenged by tepid demand for its products and an abundance of traditional and alternative capital. (Source: Moody’s)    The outcome of the forthcoming US Presidential election will not impact the US’s Aaa stable credit rating, according to a report by Moody’s. (Source: Moody’s) China’s forex reserves fell by USD 15.9bn to USD 3.19tn in August-16, as the central bank intervened to support CNY which weakened to a near-six year low. The outflow pressures have increased again as some US Federal Reserve officials have signaled that they may raise the main interest rate as early as Sptember-16. (Source: Bloomberg) Japan economy grew at 0.7% YoY over April-June period, up from preliminary reading of 0.2% YoY growth. The upward revision was majorly due to higher than anticipated capital expenditure and inventories. (Source: Reuters)  Saudi Arabia’s Amana Cooperative Insurance’s board has recommended a 56.3% share capital reduction through a reverse stock split of 1.125 shares for every two shares held. The event willhave no financial impact on the company. (Source: Mubasher)  Oman’s Bank Sohar has closed OMR 35mn (USD 90.9mn) subordinated debt issue that will boost its Tier 2 or supplementary capital. The debt was bought by pension funds, large Omani corporates and individual investors. (Source: Reuters)  The Central Bank of Bahrain announced that BHD 70mn issue of Government Treasury Bills dated 14th September-16 has been oversubscribed by 113%. The weighted average rate of interest is 2.01%, with the issue maturing on 7th September-16. (Source: BNA)  The Central Bank of Bahrain announced that the monthly issue of the short-term Islamic leasing bonds, Sukuk Al-Ijara, has been oversubscribed by 201%. Subscriptions worth BHD 52mn were received for the BHD 26mn issue, which carries a maturity of 182 days. (Source: BNA)  Bahrain's Ministry of Housing has awarded Mott MacDonald, a leading engineering, management and development consultancy, a major contract to supervise the construction of infrastructure works during both the construction and defects liability periods on the Al Madina Al Shamaliya Islands 10, 11 and 12. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain’s GFH Real Estate, the new division of GFH Financial Group, is currently considering expanding in the Tunisian and Moroccan markets, the Chief Executive Officer said. The CEO further added that the total value of planned and under construction projects in Dubai and Bahrain amounts to USD 450mn. (Source: Mubasher) GCC NEWS  UAE’s Finance House repurchased 205,130 shares or 10% of its share capital on 6th September-16. The company bought back the shares at AED 1.85 each, totaling AED 379,500. The remaining treasury shares are 29.96mn. (Source: Mubasher)  UAE’s Gulf Navigation Holding (GulfNav) and Nordic American Tankers (NAT) have signed a new settlement agreement thereby clearing the long standing debt that GulfNav owed to NAT. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Deputy ruler of Dubai has approved the awarding of AED 1bn (USD 272mn) contract for the construction of the Mohammed bin Rashid Library, the biggest cultural project in the Arab world. Construction work will start in September-16 and be completed by mid-2018. (Source: QATAR NEWS  Qatar witnessed a 7% YoY increase in arrivals of GCC visitors during the first eight months of 2016, which comprise a major share of the total number of visitors during the period, according to the Qatar Tourism Authority. The total number of visitors to Qatar in the first eight months of the year has reached 1,926,964, majority of which (48.7%) are GCC nationals. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar’s public works authority will deliver nearly two dozen school buildings worth some QAR 1bn to the education ministry this month. It has so far handed over 11 independent schools to the Ministry. Arabian Business)  S&P has revised the outlook on Saudi Arabia-based Wataniya Insurance Co. to stable from negative. At the same time, it has affirmed its BBB counterparty credit and financial strength ratings on the insurer. The agency has capped Wataniya’s capital and earnings assessment at moderately strong, because of the relatively small size of its capital base. (Source: CPI Financial)  The Saudi Capital Market Authority has approved Saudi Transport and Investment Company’s (Mubarrad) request to boost its capital from SAR 180mn (USD 47.99mn) to SAR 240mn (USD 63.98mn) through the issuance of one bonus share for every three owned by registered shareholders by the end of trading of the EGM. (Source: Mubasher)  Saudi Arabia's Emaar the Economic City said that its affiliate- Ports Development Co. secured a SAR 2.7bn (USD 720mn) Islamic loan from banks to finance the second phase of building King Abdullah Port. The loan is backed by collateral, including the port's plot of land, with a tenure of 14 years. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Oger Ltd., is in talks to sell half its stake (16.7%) in Tibah Airports Development to Turkish partner TAV. (Source: Gulf News)  Saudi Basic Industries Corp (SABIC) has agreed to sell its Polymershapes unit to US investment firm Blackfriars Corp, sighting that, the unit was a non-core business and its divestment would not affect SABIC's distribution of other products, with no substantial (Source: Doha News)  Qatar real estate sale contracts worth QAR 291.9mn were registered with the Land Registry Department of the Ministry of Justice for the week ending 3rd September-16. Sales included land plots, multi-use housing units and buildings. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar Investment Authority is in process of forming a second JV with Bengaluru-based commercial real estate developer RMZ Corp, to buy development assets across top cities in India. The new commercial platform will see QIA more than double its investment made through RMZ. (Source: Economic Times)  The Qatar Ministry of Culture and Sports awarded the operation of two arenas to Elan Live Nation, a JV between Elan Group and Live Nation. The JV will provide arena management, promotional, managerial, and facility maintenance support services to Lusail Multipurpose Arena and Ali Bin Hamad Al Attiyah Multipurpose Arena. (Source: Trade Arabia)  According to Moody’s, The Commercial Bank of Qatar faces asset quality pressures but strengthening capital and tightening underwriting standards will support the bank's performance. The agency expects a gradual stabilization of the bank's domestic loan book, however it anticipates future asset quality pressures to continue from the bank's Turkish subsidiary, Abank. (Source: Moody’s) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 8 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1269 USD/QAR 3.6413 101.7400 EUR/QAR 4.1034 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3371 JPY/QAR 0.0358 USD/CHF 0.9698 GBP/QAR 4.8688 USD/CAD 1.2884 CHF/QAR 3.7547 AUD/USD 0.7673 CAD/QAR 2.8262 NZD/USD 0.7451 AUD/QAR 2.7940 USD/INR 65.8675 INR/QAR 0.0553 USD/TRY 2.9363 TRY/QAR 1.2401 USD/ZAR 14.0248 ZAR/QAR 0.2596 USD/BRL 3.1964 BRL/QAR 1.1392 FX Commentary The dollar index remained moderately higher against the other major currencies on Wednesday, but gains were still limited as the previous session’s downbeat US data lowered expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year. EUR slipped against greenback as traders took defensive positions ahead of Thursday's European Central Bank policy meeting. GBP fell against the dollar for the first time in six sessions, hurt by weak factory data. JPY rose against greenback following reports that officials at the Bank of Japan are divided over whether to further expand the central bank’s monetary easing efforts. CAD rose against its US counterpart, supported by a recovery in oil prices. The currency got further support from the Bank of Canada’s Rate Decision, to leave interest rate unchanged at 0.50%. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.42 0.44 0.52 0.84 1.56 (0.40) (0.38) (0.37) (0.30) (0.05) LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 3.85% QAIBOR 0.98 1.11 1.38 1.58 1.94 4.0% SAIBOR NA NA 2.06 2.34 2.63 2.0% EIBOR 0.34 0.47 0.75 1.21 1.78 BMIBOR 0.43 0.65 0.95 1.33 1.83 0.0% 0.59% 2 Yrs KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.25 1.56 2.19 1.89% 2.22% 2.22% 0.99% 1.26% 1.50% 2.21% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 0.89% 5 Yrs Qatar Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 25.3 5.0 Turkey 235.0 (45.5) UK 33.2 (4.4) Brazil 245.4 (170.7) Germany 16.2 (3.4) Egypt 395.7 (121.0) France 27.3 (6.3) Abu Dhabi 69.0 (40.0) 133.0 0.1 Bahrain 360.3 (4.1) 2.0% 1.90% 1.58% 2.68% 0.99% 1.0% 0.0% 2.21% 0.86% 2 Yrs 1.38% 1.24% 1.13% 1.69% Italy Greece 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 1,024.5 (327.1) Dubai 152.0 (60.2) Russia 196.8 (112.8) Qatar 89.0 (22.5) Japan 31.5 (15.3) Saudi Arabia 145.0 (20.7) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 08:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey Current Aug 45.5 45.1 09:30 France Bank of France Bus. Sentiment Aug 98 98 14:45 Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Rate Sep-08th 0.00% 0.00% 14:45 Eurozone ECB Deposit Facility Rate Sep-08th (0.40%) (0.40%) 14:45 Eurozone ECB Marginal Lending Facility Sep-08th 0.25% 0.25% 15:30 Canada New Housing Price Index MoM Jul 0.10% 0.10% 15:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Sep-03rd 265k 263k Aug-27th 2151k 2159k Jul 2.90% (5.50%) 396.9b 15:30 US Continuing Claims 15:30 Canada Building Permits MoM 16:00 Russia Gold and Forex Reserve Sep-02nd -- 16:45 US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Sep-04th -- 43.4 02:50 Japan Money Stock M2 YoY Aug 3.30% 3.30% 02:50 Japan Money Stock M3 YoY Aug 2.90% 2.90% Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Kuwait & Middle East Fin Inv Revenues (mn) 0.79 YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) (27.50) (18.74) (0.73) 1,091.12 24.19 Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 8 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mannai Corp. Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.5 7.7 0.0 8.0 1.7 5.8 4.9 2.9 0.0 4.0 6.2 1.9 5.4 3.4 5.6 4.3 4.8 5.1 0.0 8.7 4.2 4.8 5.1 6.2 2.8 4.7 6.0 3.9 3.5 2.5 7.1 3.8 4.3 4.4 4.7 2.2 3.0 7.0 2.6 6.2 2.8 2.0 7.3 3.9 3.0 0.0 2.3 2.3 5.2 5.6 5.0 3.7 P/B Ratio (x) 1.7 0.9 2.4 1.1 2.6 1.1 2.3 0.9 1.1 1.9 1.8 2.1 1.1 1.8 2.6 3.3 1.5 2.1 1.3 0.8 4.5 0.8 2.0 1.3 1.7 2.0 1.6 1.6 3.3 2.5 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.1 1.0 2.7 0.7 2.7 1.8 0.8 1.7 1.1 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.9 1.5 2.2 1.7 0.8 1.2 1.7 P/E Ratio (x) 12.2 14.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.6 (H) (‫)م‬ 9.7 12.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 46.6 11.9 12.4 11.0 29.8 11.4 21.8 25.8 13.1 11.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.3 14.6 6.6 12.8 15.2 18.6 16.2 8.0 19.0 15.3 21.6 11.2 10.8 15.8 21.0 12.1 19.9 4.5 12.8 13.0 17.0 27.8 13.4 15.6 22.7 12.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 19.5 15.9 13.5 10.3 12.2 13.9 EPS (QR) 3.4 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 5.0 0.2 1.8 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.2 9.0 5.2 14.2 0.4 6.0 4.1 8.2 2.4 13.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.5 12.6 6.3 1.0 1.9 6.6 10.4 0.9 14.1 2.3 3.8 8.0 3.0 1.1 1.8 4.4 10.2 4.5 5.1 2.1 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.9 8.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.8 3.4 1.8 8.7 3.0 3.3 BV/Share (QR) 24.1 44.1 9.5 35.2 24.7 16.4 15.7 20.5 10.3 56.6 35.5 74.2 9.9 38.1 34.9 64.7 20.9 73.5 8.6 14.2 14.6 104.7 41.2 12.2 21.0 53.8 52.6 11.0 65.7 19.5 30.3 48.4 24.3 20.8 21.0 32.4 70.7 21.0 37.9 46.0 11.0 13.1 30.0 16.9 69.9 5.8 23.4 24.2 14.5 115.6 31.2 27.1 Stock Price (QR) 41.0 39.2 22.3 37.5 62.9 17.3 35.4 17.4 11.1 106.4 64.7 156.0 11.0 89.0 211.1 31.5 150.3 11.2 11.5 65.0 83.3 15.3 35.6 107.0 83.0 17.8 216.0 49.3 42.5 86.1 23.0 21.2 88.0 46.0 57.5 35.4 18.2 13.9 20.5 99.0 11.2 54.0 24.1 89.3 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4