Central Bank of Turkey: Investment Survey Autumn 2016

Transcription

1. AUTUMN 2016 INVESTMENT SURVEY DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS REAL SECTOR DATA DIVISION November 24 , 2016
2. Statistics Department INVESTMENT SURVEY AUTUMN 2016 I . INVESTMENT PLANS Graph 1. Percentage change in investments in 2016 on investments in 2015 % 35 30 2016 25 Spring Survey Autumn Survey (%) (%) TOTAL MANUFACTURING 23.9 15.6 [SG2] 18.4 15.0 [SG3] 12.9 5.2 [SG4] 30.1 15.7 20 15 10 5 0 TOTAL MANUFACT. [SG2] [SG3] Spring Survey [SG4] Autumn Survey Graph 2. Percentage change in investments in 2017 on investments in 2016 % 20 2017 15 Autumn Survey (%) 10 5 0 TOTAL MANUFACT. [SG2] [SG3] [SG4] TOTAL MANUFACTURING 17.5 [SG2] 17.1 [SG3] 13.4 [SG4] 16.8 Investments by Main Industrial Groupings Graph 3. Percentage change in investments carried out in 2016 and investments planned for 2017 by main industrial groupings % 25 20 15 10 5 0 TOTAL MANUFACT. Durable Consumer Goods 2016 Non-durable Intermediate Investment Consumer Goods Goods Goods 2016 2017 (%) (%) TOTAL MANUFACTURING 15.6 17.5 Durable Consumer Goods 24.2 8.2 Non-durable Consumer Goods 17.6 6.4 Intermediate Goods 12.1 22.5 Investment Goods 21.2 18.7 2017 (*) SIZE GROUPS [SG]: [SG1]: Denotes the enterprises of which the number of employees working in the production process is less than 50 and it is excluded from the scope. [SG3]: Denotes the enterprises of which the number of employees working in the production process is between 250 and 499. [SG2]: Denotes the enterprises of which the number of employees working in the production process is between 50 and 249. [SG4] : Denotes the enterprises of which the number of employees working in the production process is greater than 500. 2
3. Statistics Department II . STRUCTURE OF THE INVESTMENT Graph 4. Investments carried out in 2016 is of the following kind % TOTAL MANUFACT. 2016 SG2 SG3 SG4 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Replacement of worn-out plant Extension of production capacity Investment designed to streamline production Other investment objectives (%) (%) (%) (%) TOTAL MANUFACTURING 31.6 23.2 26.2 19.0 [SG2] 36.4 21.9 26.6 15.1 [SG3] 29.9 28.2 29.5 12.4 [SG4] 30.9 21.8 25.2 22.1 100% Replacement of worn-out plant Extension of production capacity Investment designed to streamline production Other investment objectives Graph 5. Investments planned for 2017 is or will be of the following kind: % TOTAL MANUFACT. 2017 Replacement of worn-out plant Extension of production capacity Investment designed to streamline production Other investment objectives (%) (%) (%) (%) TOTAL MANUFACTURING 30.7 21.9 27.0 20.4 [SG2] 31.9 23.6 28.7 15.8 [SG3] 28.9 25.6 30.6 14.9 [SG4] 30.8 20.2 25.6 23.4 SG2 SG3 SG4 0% 20% 40% 60% Replacement of worn-out plant 80% 100% Extension of production capacity Investment designed to streamline production Other investment objectives 3
4. Statistics Department III . FACTORS INFLUENCING INVESTMENT 1. Effect of demand factor on investments Graph 6. Effect of demand factor on investments in 2016 and 2017 Balance (%) 60 48.0 50 51.0 46.9 42.7 48.3 46.4 46.3 45.5 40 2016 30 2017 20 10 0 TOTAL MANUFACTURING [SG2] [SG3] [SG4] 2016 very stimulating stimulating 2017 no very very influence limiting limiting balance stimulating stimulating no very influence limiting limiting balance (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) TOTAL MANUFACTURING 24.9 55.2 12.0 6.7 1.2 48.0 22.6 57.0 12.9 6.5 1.0 46.9 [SG2] 18.7 57.5 15.6 6.9 1.3 42.7 20.0 59.2 13.9 5.5 1.4 45.5 [SG3] 21.2 60.9 8.7 7.7 1.5 46.3 17.8 63.7 12.4 5.6 0.5 46.4 [SG4] 27.5 54.2 11.7 5.9 0.7 51.0 23.2 57.5 12.7 5.9 0.7 48.3 2. Effect of financial resources on investments Graph 7. Effect of financial resources on investments in 2016 and 2017 Balance (%) 30 26.2 24.4 25 20.0 21.7 24.7 21.1 18.2 20 19.7 2016 15 2017 10 5 0 TOTAL MANUFACTURING [SG2] [SG3] [SG4] 2016 very stimulating stimulating (%) (%) 2017 no very very influence limiting limiting balance stimulating stimulating (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) no very influence limiting limiting balance (%) (%) (%) (%) TOTAL MANUFACTURING 7.4 41.9 35.8 13.0 1.9 20.0 8.1 43.0 34.8 12.3 1.8 21.7 [SG2] 9.8 42.9 30.7 12.8 3.8 21.1 10.2 46.3 29.4 10.3 3.8 24.4 [SG3] 13.2 40.3 34.2 10.2 2.1 26.2 11.1 41.3 35.5 10.1 2.0 24.7 [SG4] 4.5 42.8 38.4 13.2 1.1 18.2 5.4 43.7 36.9 12.9 1.1 19.7 4
5. Statistics Department 3 . Effect of expected profits on investments Graph 8. Effect of expected profits on investments in 2016 and 2017 Balance (%) 40 34.2 37.6 37.1 36.6 38.7 34.2 34.0 36.3 30 2016 20 2017 10 0 TOTAL MANUFACTURING [SG2] [SG3] [SG4] 2016 very stimulating stimulating 2017 no very very no very influence limiting limiting balance stimulating stimulating influence limiting limiting balance (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) TOTAL MANUFACTURING 10.2 60.7 17.4 10.6 1.1 34.2 10.6 62.5 17.1 9.1 0.7 36.6 [SG2] 11.3 58.3 19.8 8.3 2.3 34.0 11.9 61.2 18.1 6.8 2.0 37.1 [SG3] 16.6 56.0 16.2 8.4 2.8 37.6 15.0 58.1 17.9 7.2 1.8 38.7 [SG4] 7.3 65.0 16.8 10.6 0.3 34.2 7.4 67.0 16.6 8.8 0.2 36.3 4. Effect of technical factors on investments Graph 9. Effect of technical factors on investments in 2016 and 2017 Balance (%) 40 30.9 32.7 30.9 30.4 28.3 30 33.5 31.1 33.8 2016 20 2017 10 0 TOTAL MANUFACTURING [SG2] [SG3] [SG4] 2016 very stimulating stimulating 2017 no very very no very influence limiting limiting balance stimulating stimulating influence limiting limiting balance (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) TOTAL MANUFACTURING 11.4 48.6 30.8 8.7 0.5 30.9 11.6 49.7 31.4 7.0 0.3 32.7 [SG2] 8.5 52.3 28.0 9.7 1.5 28.3 9.1 53.3 28.6 8.3 0.7 30.9 [SG3] 7.5 57.3 24.6 9.7 0.9 30.4 8.2 54.4 29.4 7.4 0.6 31.1 [SG4] 13.5 46.9 32.8 6.7 0.1 33.5 13.0 47.6 33.4 5.9 0.1 33.8 5
6. Statistics Department 5 . Effect of the other factors on investments Graph 10. Effect of the other factors on investments in 2016 and 2017 Balance (%) 20 15 14.6 17.4 16.4 15.7 17.8 14.9 12.5 10.3 2016 10 2017 5 0 TOTAL MANUFACTURING [SG2] [SG3] [SG4] 2016 very stimulating stimulating (%) (%) 2017 no very very influence limiting limiting balance stimulating stimulating (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) no influence (%) limiting (%) very limiting balance (%) (%) TOTAL MANUFACTURING 9.4 28.6 46.2 13.4 2.4 14.6 10.1 28.9 46.0 12.2 2.8 15.7 [SG2] 5.6 29.0 48.7 13.8 2.9 10.3 5.6 31.0 48.7 12.2 2.5 12.5 [SG3] 7.5 28.9 53.6 8.8 1.2 16.4 6.7 31.8 49.8 7.9 3.8 14.9 [SG4] 11.6 29.0 44.5 12.4 2.5 17.4 12.3 28.4 44.6 12.0 2.7 17.8 Investment Survey is conducted with the establishments included in the Business Tendency Survey and aggregated results computed as weighted averages have been published as part of the "Official Statistics Programme (OSP)" based on the Statistics Law of Turkey. Since Autumn 2008 , the IS has been published as part of the “Joint Harmonized EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys” and cofinanced by the CBRT and the European Commission. Aggregated results and methodological information are available at the web site http://www.tcmb.gov.tr under the menu Statistics/Tendency Surveys/Investment Survey . The survey results are compiled from the responses of the respondents and do not reflect the views and predictions of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. For questions and suggestions E-mail: iya@tcmb.gov.tr 6