Central Bank of Nigeria: Purchasing Managers Index Report - August 2017

Transcription

1. Central Bank of Nigeria Purchasing Managers ’ Index (PMI) Survey Report Statistics Department August 2017
2. PURCHASING MANAGERS ’ INDEX (PMI) AUGUST 2017 REPORT 1.0 Introduction The August 2017 PMI was conducted by the Statistics Department of the Central Bank of Nigeria during the period August 7 - 11, 2017. The respondents were purchasing and supply executives of manufacturing and non-manufacturing organizations in 13 locations in Nigeria (2 states in each geopolitical zone and the Federal Capital Territory, Fig. 1). A total of 1,671 responses were received from a sample of 1,950 respondents, representing a response rate of 85.7 per cent. The Bank makes no representation regarding the individual companies, other than the data they provided. The data contained herein further provides input for policy decisions. Sokoto Katsina Yobe Jigawa Zamfara Borno Kano Kebbi Kaduna Bauchi Gombe Niger Adamawa FCT Kwara Nasarawa Oyo Osun Ogun Lagos Plateau Ekiti Taraba Kogi Benue Ondo Edo Delta Cross Imo Abia River Akwa Ibom Fig. 1: Map of Nigeria showing the survey locations 1.1 Data and Method of Presentation The Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI Report on businesses is based on survey responses indicating the changes in the level of business activities in the current month compared with the preceding month. For each of the indicators measured, this report shows the diffusion index of the responses. The diffusion index is computed as the percentage of responses with positive change plus one-half of the percentage of those reporting no change, except for supplier delivery time, which is computed as the percentage of responses with negative change plus onehalf of the percentage of those reporting no change. The composite PMI for the manufacturing sector is computed as the weighted average of five diffusion indices: production level, new orders, supplier delivery time, employment level and raw materials inventory, with assigned weights of 25%, 30%, 15%, 10% and 20%, respectively. The composite PMI for the non-manufacturing sector is computed from four diffusion indices: business activity, new orders, employment level and raw materials inventory, with equal weights of 25% each. 1
3. A composite PMI above 50 points indicates that the manufacturing /non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding, 50 points indicates no change and below 50 points indicates that it is generally contracting. The subsectors reporting growth are listed in the order of highest to lowest growth, while those reporting contraction are listed in the order of the highest to the lowest contraction. 2.0 Manufacturing PMI Report August '17 July '17 Inventories Employment level Production level, new orders and employment level growing at a slower rate; while supplier delivery time and inventories growing at a faster rate in August 2017 Supplier deliveries New orders Production level Overall Manufacturing PMI 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 Fig. 2: Manufacturing PMI at a glance 2 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb '17 Jan '17 Dec '16 Nov '16 Oct '16 Sep '16 Aug '16 Index Points The Manufacturing PMI stood at 53.6 index points in August 2017, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector for the fifth consecutive month (Fig. 3 and Table 1). Twelve of the 16 subsectors reported growth in the review month in the following order: computer & electronic products; appliances and components; chemical & 55.0 Overall Manufacturing PMI 50 point 53.6 pharmaceutical products; 53.0 textile, apparel, leather and footwear; electrical 51.0 equipment; printing & related 49.0 support activities; paper products; nonmetallic mineral 47.0 products; food, beverage & 45.0 tobacco products; furniture & related products; cement and 43.0 plastics & rubber products. 41.0 The remaining 4 subsectors contracted in the order: transportation equipment; primary metal; petroleum & Fig. 3: Trend of Manufacturing PMI coal products and fabricated metal products.
4. 2 .1 Production Level 65.0 The production level index for manufacturing sector grew for the sixth consecutive month in August 2017. At 57.4 points, the index indicated an increase in production at a slower rate, when compared to its level in the preceding month. Eleven of the 16 manufacturing subsectors recorded increase in production level, 1 remained unchanged and the other 4 declined during the review month (Fig. 4 and Table 2). 60.0 Production Level 50 point 57.4 55.0 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb '17 Jan '17 Dec '16 Nov '16 Oct '16 Sep '16 Aug '16 30.0 Fig. 4: Trend of production level index 60.0 New Orders 50 point 52.3 55.0 2.2 New Orders 50.0 At 52.3 points, the new orders index grew for the fifth consecutive month. Six subsectors reported growth, 1 remained unchanged while 9 contracted in the review month (Fig. 5 and Table 3). 45.0 40.0 35.0 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb '17 Jan '17 Dec '16 Nov '16 Oct '16 Sep '16 Aug '16 30.0 Fig. 5: Trend of new orders index 2.3 Supplier Delivery Time 60.0 Supplier Delivery Time 50 point 52.0 55.0 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 Fig. 6: Trend of supplier delivery time index 3 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb '17 Jan '17 Dec '16 Nov '16 Oct '16 Sep '16 30.0 Aug '16 The supplier delivery time index for the manufacturing sector, at 52.0 points in August 2017, rose for the third consecutive month. Nine subsectors recorded improved suppliers’ delivery time, 2 remained unchanged while 5 subsectors recorded delayed delivery time (Fig. 6 and Table 4).
5. Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb '17 Jan '17 Dec '16 Nov '16 Oct '16 60.0 Inventories 50 point 55.0 54.9 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 July '17 Aug '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb '17 Dec '16 Nov '16 Oct '16 Sep '16 30.0 Aug '16 At 54.9 points, inventories index grew for the fifth consecutive month, and at a faster rate when compared to its level in July 2017. Thirteen of the 16 subsectors recorded growth, 1 remained unchanged while 2 subsectors recorded decline in inventories (Fig. 8 and Table 6). 51.5 Fig 7: Trend of manufacturing employment level index Jan '17 2.5 Inventories Employment Level Sep '16 The employment level index in August 2017 stood at 51.5 points, indicating growth in employment level for the fourth consecutive month. Of the 16 subsectors, 7 recorded growth, 4 remained unchanged while 5 subsectors recorded decline in employment level over the preceding month (Fig. 7 and Table 5). 54.0 52.0 50.0 48.0 46.0 44.0 42.0 40.0 38.0 36.0 Aug '16 2.4 Employment Level 58 59 Fig. 8: Trend of inventories index 3.0 Non-Manufacturing PMI Report Inventories August '17 July '17 Level of employment Business activity and new orders growing at a slower rate; employment level and inventories growing at a faster rate in August 2017 Level of new orders Business Activity Overall Non-manufacturing PMI 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 Fig. 9: Manufacturing PMI at a glance 4 56 57
6. Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb '17 Jan '17 Dec '16 Nov '16 Oct '16 Sep '16 Aug '16 Index Points The composite PMI for the non-manufacturing sector stood at 54.1 points in August 2017, indicating growth in Non-manufacturing PMI for the fourth consecutive month. Of the 18 nonmanufacturing subsectors, 15 recorded growth in the following order: utilities; public administration; information & communication; finance & insurance; health care & social assistance; agriculture; accommodation & food services; electricity, gas, steam & air 60.0 Overall Non-manufacturing PMI 50 point conditioning supply; transportation & warehousing; repair, 54.1 55.0 maintenance/washing of motor vehicles; wholesale trade; educational services; professional, 50.0 scientific, & technical services; arts, entertainment & recreation; and 45.0 water supply, sewage & waste management. The real estate, 40.0 rental & leasing; construction; and management of companies sub sectors recorded contraction in the Fig. 10: Trend of non-manufacturing PMI review period (Fig. 10 and Table 7). 3.1 Business Activity 70.0 50 point 60.0 56.1 55.0 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 Fig. 11: Trend of business activity index 5 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb '17 Jan '17 Dec '16 Nov '16 Oct '16 Sep '16 30.0 Aug '16 The business activity index moderated to 56.1 points in August 2017, indicating growth for the fifth consecutive month. The index grew at a slower rate, when compared to its level in the previous month. Twelve subsectors recorded growth in business activity, 3 remained unchanged while 3 declined in the review month (Table 8). Business Activity 65.0
7. 60 .0 3.2 New Orders 55.0 New orders index at 53.5 points grew in August 2017 for the fifth consecutive month. Of the 18 subsectors, 12 reported growth, 1 remained unchanged while 5 recorded declines (Table 9). 50.0 New orders 50 point 53.5 45.0 40.0 35.0 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb '17 Jan '17 Dec '16 Nov '16 Oct '16 Sep '16 Aug '16 30.0 Fig. 12: Trend of new orders index 3.3 Employment Level 60.0 The employment level Index for the nonmanufacturing sector stood at 54.4 points, indicating growth in employment for the fourth consecutive month. Fifteen subsectors recorded growth in the review month, 1 remained unchanged while 2 recorded declines (Table 10). 55.0 Employment Level 54.4 50 point 50.0 45.0 40.0 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb '17 Jan '17 Dec '16 Nov '16 Oct '16 Sep '16 Aug '16 35.0 Fig. 13: Trend of non-manufacturing employment index Inventory 50 point 55.0 52.3 50.0 45.0 40.0 Fig. 14: Trend of non-manufacturing inventory index 6 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb '17 Jan '17 Dec '16 Nov '16 Oct '16 35.0 Sep '16 At 52.3 points, non-manufacturing inventory index grew for the fourth consecutive month, indicating growth in inventories in the review period. Eleven subsectors recorded higher inventories, 2 remained unchanged while 5 subsectors recorded lower inventory in August, 2017 (Table 11). 60.0 Aug '16 3.4 Non-manufacturing Inventory
8. APPENDICES Table 1 : Manufacturing at a Glance Series Index* July Series Index* August Change 54.1 59.3 52.7 51.3 51.8 53.6 37.5 60.4 64.1 48.0 42.1 48.5 53.6 57.4 52.3 52.0 51.5 54.9 36.7 58.8 64.9 49.0 47.9 51.6 -0.5 -1.9 -0.4 0.7 -0.3 1.3 -0.8 -1.6 0.8 1.0 5.8 3.1 Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products 66.0 64.1 60.9 65.5 53.3 47.1 56.5 48.2 48.9 53.5 45.2 49.8 61.0 51.2 59.9 69.2 55.5 48.8 53.2 51.9 54.1 54.6 47.7 50.2 Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment 61.8 54.8 56.5 51.1 42.7 55.3 56.5 17.5 Index Composite PMI \1 Production level New orders Supplier delivery time Employment level Raw materials/WIP Inventory New Export Orders Output Prices Input Prices Quantity of Purchases Outstanding Business/Backlog of Work Stock of Finished Goods Rate of Change Trend** (Months) Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Declining Growing Growing Declining Declining Growing Slower Slower Slower Faster Slower Faster Faster Slower Faster Slower Slower From Contraction 5 6 5 3 4 5 30 20 38 5 30 1 -5.0 -12.9 -1.0 3.7 2.2 1.7 -3.3 3.7 5.2 1.1 2.5 0.4 Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Declining Growing Growing Growing Growing Declining Growing Slower Slower Slower Faster Faster Slower Slower From Contraction From Contraction Faster Slower From Contraction 9 2 2 3 5 2 11 1 1 4 2 1 -19.1 0.5 0.0 -33.6 Declining Growing Growing Declining From Expansion Faster Flat From Expansion 1 2 6 1 Direction Manufacturing Sub-Sectors \1 The composite PMI is a weighted average of the following diffusion indices: production level, new orders, supplier deliveries, employment level and inventories. The weights assigned to these variables are 25%, 30%, 15%, 10% and 20% respectively. *The series index is a diffusion index defined as a weighted percentage of high, same and low with 1.0, 0.5 and 0.0 as weights respectively. ** Number of month moving in current direction Table 2: Production at a Glance Index PRODUCTION PMI Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index July 59.3 Series Index August 57.4 Change -1.9 90.0 75.0 68.1 71.4 57.5 45.7 61.5 54.0 55.0 56.9 46.4 58.8 66.7 62.2 61.5 64.3 80.0 58.3 66.3 75.0 60.7 52.1 56.4 57.8 62.5 50.0 37.5 48.2 40.9 55.3 63.1 0.0 -10.0 -16.7 -1.8 3.6 3.2 6.4 -5.1 3.8 7.5 -6.9 -8.9 -10.6 -25.8 -6.9 1.6 -64.3 7 Direction Growing Rate of Change Slower Growing Slower Growing Slower Growing Slower Growing Faster Growing Faster Growing From Contraction Growing Slower Growing Faster Growing Faster No Change From Expansion Declining Faster Declining From Expansion Declining From Expansion Growing Slower Growing Faster Declining From Expansion Trend (Months) 6 8 6 2 6 5 1 11 6 2 1 2 1 1 5 6 1
9. Table 3 : New Orders at a Glance Index NEW ORDERS PMI Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index July 52.7 Series Index August 52.3 Change -0.4 65.0 62.5 60.3 50.0 42.5 44.2 59.8 44.9 41.7 52.8 35.7 47.1 61.1 57.4 57.3 42.9 40.0 45.0 58.7 75.0 46.4 45.3 53.5 50.0 45.8 53.8 45.8 48.2 36.4 59.3 58.1 0.0 -25.0 -17.5 -1.6 25.0 3.9 1.1 -6.3 5.1 4.1 1.0 10.1 1.1 -24.7 1.9 0.8 -42.9 Direction Growing Rate of Change Slower Declining From Expansion Declining From Expansion Growing Slower Growing From No Change Declining Slower Declining Slower Growing Slower No ChangeFrom Contraction Declining Slower Growing Faster Declining Slower Declining Slower Declining From Expansion Growing Faster Growing Faster Declining Faster Trend (Months) 5 1 1 2 1 3 2 11 1 4 4 2 2 1 2 6 2 Table 4: Supplier Delivery Time at a Glance Index SUPPLIER DELIVERY TIME PMI Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index July 51.3 Series Index August 52.0 Change 0.7 40.0 51.6 50.9 75.0 67.5 51.4 47.4 54.0 53.3 47.2 64.3 45.5 58.3 50.7 49.0 42.9 60.0 55.0 51.9 58.3 78.6 55.3 49.5 48.2 63.9 61.5 58.3 48.2 50.0 44.7 48.0 50.0 20.0 3.4 1.0 -16.7 11.1 3.9 2.1 -5.8 10.6 14.3 -6.0 2.7 -8.3 -6.0 -1.0 7.1 8 Direction Growing Rate of Change Faster Trend (Months) 3 Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Declining Declining Growing Growing Growing Declining No Change Declining Declining No Change From Contraction Faster Faster Slower Faster Faster Slower From Expansion Faster From Contraction Slower Slower From Expansion From Expansion Faster From Contraction 1 3 3 7 8 2 2 1 2 1 2 3 1 1 2 1
10. Table 5 : Employment Level at a Glance Index EMPLOYMENT LEVEL PMI Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index July 51.8 Series Index August 51.5 Change -0.3 50.0 64.1 59.5 71.4 50.0 51.0 51.3 46.0 48.3 51.4 46.4 45.6 61.1 45.9 54.7 50.0 50.0 48.3 59.6 58.3 50.0 42.6 51.0 54.2 48.6 53.8 50.0 50.0 45.5 56.7 52.5 0.0 0.0 -15.8 0.1 -13.1 0.0 -8.4 -0.3 8.2 0.3 2.4 3.6 4.4 -15.6 10.8 -2.2 -50.0 Direction Growing Rate of Change Slower Trend (Months) 4 No Change Declining Growing Growing No Change Declining Growing Growing Declining Growing No Change No Change Declining Growing Growing Declining Flat From Expansion Faster Slower Flat From Expansion Slower From Contraction Slower Faster From Contraction From Contraction From Expansion From Contraction Slower From No Change 2 1 2 3 2 1 3 1 20 4 1 1 1 1 3 1 Trend (Months) 5 9 2 3 3 1 1 11 4 1 4 1 1 1 2 3 4 Table 6: Raw Materials Inventory at a Glance Index RAW MATERIALS INVENTORY PMI Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index July 53.6 Series Index August 54.9 Change 1.3 Direction Growing Rate of Change Faster 80.0 60.9 62.3 71.4 60.0 45.0 58.2 39.8 50.0 61.1 39.3 50.0 58.3 52.7 56.5 57.1 100.0 51.7 59.6 75.0 46.4 53.7 54.0 43.4 54.3 59.6 58.3 64.3 50.0 56.7 56.1 100.0 20.0 -9.2 -2.7 3.6 -13.6 8.7 -4.2 3.6 4.3 -1.5 19.0 14.3 -8.3 4.0 -0.4 42.9 Growing Growing Growing Growing Declining Growing Growing Declining Growing Growing Growing Growing No Change Growing Growing Growing Faster Slower Slower Faster From Expansion From Contraction Slower Slower From No Change Slower From Contraction From No Change From Expansion Faster Slower Faster 9
11. Table 7 : Non-Manufacturing at a Glance Index Composite PMI \1 Business Activity Level of new orders/customers/incoming business Level of employment Inventory Average price of Inputs (volume weighted) Level of outstanding business/ Backlog of work New Exports orders Imports Inventory (sentiments) Series Index July Series Index August Change 54.4 56.8 55.1 54.0 51.9 58.1 42.9 32.0 36.8 41.5 54.1 56.1 53.5 54.4 52.3 54.5 42.8 34.5 34.8 42.0 -0.3 -0.7 -1.6 0.4 0.4 -3.6 -0.1 2.5 -2.0 0.5 51.3 63.1 48.6 44.7 57.1 53.3 58.4 54.9 59.8 56.3 52.0 62.5 52.6 55.7 57.6 62.0 51.9 52.5 56.7 56.8 50.7 47.1 51.4 56.5 58.4 58.0 58.7 48.9 51.3 59.1 42.6 53.8 55.8 63.8 50.6 53.2 5.4 -6.3 2.1 2.4 -5.7 3.2 0.0 3.1 -1.1 -7.4 -0.7 -3.4 -10.0 -1.9 -1.8 1.8 -1.3 0.7 Rate of Change Trend (Months) Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Declining Declining Declining Declining Slower Slower Slower Faster Faster Slower Faster Slower Faster Slower 4 5 5 4 4 22 38 38 38 38 Growing Growing Growing Declining Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Declining Growing Growing Declining Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Faster Slower From Contraction Slower Slower Faster Flat Faster Slower From Expansion Slower Slower From Expansion Slower Slower Faster Slower Faster 4 15 1 27 9 6 6 4 5 1 3 2 1 3 6 5 6 3 Direction Non-manufacturing sub-sectors Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, entertainment & recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate rental & leasing Repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade \1 The composite PMI is a simple average of the following diffusion (series) indices: business activity, new orders, employment level and inventories Table 8: Business activity at a Glance Index BUSINESS ACTIVITY PMI Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, entertainment & recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate rental & leasing Repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade Series Index July 56.8 56.4 72.7 50.0 47.8 64.0 52.2 61.5 53.3 56.7 56.3 47.3 70.0 52.4 63.6 56.5 72.7 42.5 50.3 Series Index August 56.1 56.8 60.3 44.3 51.3 50.0 62.0 60.8 65.6 62.5 50.0 46.5 59.1 42.1 53.3 63.8 65.0 50.0 56.6 10 Change -0.7 0.4 -12.4 -5.7 3.5 -14.0 9.8 -0.7 12.3 5.8 -6.3 -0.8 -10.9 -10.3 -10.3 7.3 -7.7 7.5 6.3 Direction Growing Growing Growing Declining Growing No Change Growing Growing Growing Growing No Change Declining Growing Declining Growing Growing Growing No Change Growing Rate of Trend Change (Months) Slower 5 Faster 4 Slower 15 From No Change 1 From Contraction 1 From Expansion 1 Faster 6 Slower 5 Faster 6 Faster 5 From Expansion 1 Faster 4 Slower 2 From Expansion 1 Slower 5 Faster 5 Slower 5 From Contraction 1 Faster 4
12. Table 9 : New Orders at a Glance Index NEW ORDERS PMI Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, entertainment & recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate rental & leasing Repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade Series Index July 55.1 53.2 59.1 47.3 47.8 54.4 55.4 57.3 57.8 61.7 50.0 58.0 60.0 56.3 53.0 62.0 61.4 55.0 54.3 Series Index August 53.5 54.2 58.1 47.1 41.3 48.8 58.7 63.7 58.8 56.7 45.5 50.9 54.5 38.9 54.2 54.3 75.0 50.0 53.0 Series Index July 54.0 47.7 59.8 51.4 43.3 52.6 50.0 61.5 55.6 63.3 56.3 51.8 60.0 51.6 53.8 64.1 59.1 47.5 55.6 Series Index August 54.4 59.5 51.5 55.7 53.8 58.1 53.3 55.9 51.3 56.7 50.0 60.5 63.6 45.2 54.2 57.4 65.0 40.0 52.7 Change -1.6 1.0 -1.0 -0.2 -6.5 -5.6 3.3 6.4 1.0 -5.0 -4.5 -7.1 -5.5 -17.4 1.2 -7.7 13.6 -5.0 -1.3 Rate of Trend Direction Change (Months) Growing Slower 5 Growing Faster 4 Growing Slower 2 Declining Faster 2 Declining Faster 27 Declining From Expansion 1 Growing Faster 6 Growing Faster 6 Growing Faster 3 Growing Slower 5 Declining From No Change 1 Growing Slower 3 Growing Slower 2 Declining From Expansion 1 Growing Faster 3 Growing Slower 6 Growing Faster 5 No Change From Expansion 1 Growing Slower 3 Table 10: Employment at a Glance Index EMPLOYMENT LEVEL PMI Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, entertainment & recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate rental & leasing Repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade 11 Change 0.4 11.8 -8.3 4.3 10.5 5.5 3.3 -5.6 -4.3 -6.6 -6.3 8.7 3.6 -6.4 0.4 -6.7 5.9 -7.5 -2.9 Direction Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing No Change Growing Growing Declining Growing Growing Growing Declining Growing Rate of Trend Change (Months) Faster 4 From Contraction 1 Slower 4 Faster 4 From Contraction 1 Faster 8 From No Change 1 Slower 3 Slower 3 Slower 4 From Expansion 1 Faster 3 Faster 3 From Expansion 1 Faster 3 Slower 6 Faster 5 Faster 2 Slower 3
13. Table 11 : Inventory at a Glance Index INVENTORY PMI Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, entertainment & recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate rental & leasing Repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade Series Index July 51.9 48.1 60.6 45.9 40.0 57.5 55.7 53.3 52.9 57.5 62.5 50.9 60.0 50.0 52.3 47.8 55.0 62.5 50.0 Series Index August 52.3 56.3 57.4 55.7 42.3 48.8 52.2 53.1 56.3 58.8 50.0 47.3 59.1 44.4 53.4 47.8 50.0 62.5 50.3 Change 0.4 8.2 -3.2 9.8 2.3 -8.7 -3.5 -0.2 3.4 1.3 -12.5 -3.6 -0.9 -5.6 1.1 0.0 -5.0 0.0 0.3 Rate of Trend Direction Change (Months) Growing Faster 4 Growing From Contraction 1 Growing Slower 5 Growing From Contraction 1 Declining Slower 2 Declining From Expansion 1 Growing Slower 2 Growing Slower 3 Growing Faster 4 Growing Faster 2 No Change From Expansion 1 Declining From Expansion 1 Growing Slower 2 Declining From No Change 1 Growing Faster 2 Declining Flat 2 No Change From Expansion 1 Growing Flat 4 Growing From No Change 1 Jul '14 Aug '14 Sep '14 Oct '14 Nov '14 Dec '14 Jan '15 Feb '15 Mar '15 Apr '15 May '15 Jun '15 Jul '15 Aug '15 Sep '15 Oct '15 Nov '15 Dec '15 Jan 16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16 Jun '16 Jul '16 Aug '16 Sep '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Dec '16 Jan '17 Feb '17 Mar '17 Apr '17 May '17 June '17 July '17 Aug '17 51.3 49.7 54.0 51.9 52.2 49.8 50.2 53.0 48.9 52.0 49.4 49.5 47.8 48.4 50.7 49.2 51.2 51.2 47.2 45.5 45.9 43.7 45.8 41.9 44.1 42.1 42.5 44.1 46.0 52.0 48.2 44.6 47.7 51.1 52.5 52.9 54.1 53.6 55.2 49.7 57.4 55.1 55.1 51.2 50.4 57.4 52.1 56.9 53.6 51.5 49.7 51.0 54.9 52.0 55.4 55.4 49.3 45.0 46.6 42.7 47.9 40.2 43.0 40.5 40.9 42.3 46.9 57.6 51.3 45.2 50.8 58.5 58.7 58.2 59.3 57.4 53.0 51.2 57.6 55.3 56.9 51.1 49.3 54.7 48.9 54.1 49.7 50.8 46.2 50.1 52.1 49.3 52.9 52.7 46.2 43.0 43.0 41.8 42.7 37.0 42.4 37.5 38.7 40.3 45.1 51.8 47.9 44.0 45.6 50.1 50.5 51.0 52.7 52.3 46.4 49.9 46.4 46.2 45.1 49.7 51.3 43.8 47.8 42.7 44.6 42.0 43.5 43.1 46.8 42.7 47.3 45.2 48.4 52.8 50.6 52.2 50.2 55.6 51.7 57.4 55.6 57.7 53.2 47.9 48.5 48.7 51.3 47.5 49.9 50.3 51.3 52.0 46.9 45.9 49.3 46.8 47.2 46.8 51.1 50.0 46.4 48.9 48.0 48.5 48.4 44.8 47.1 48.4 45.5 47.5 46.0 45.0 45.5 42.0 45.7 42.2 43.8 40.4 41.2 42.2 40.6 48.6 45.3 41.7 43.6 46.6 50.7 51.1 51.8 51.5 52.9 52.2 55.7 52.4 51.7 48.4 49.3 56.4 47.1 53.9 48.0 53.3 52.6 52.4 49.0 53.1 52.2 52.7 45.8 44.7 47.1 43.0 43.9 39.4 41.4 40.0 40.9 42.9 46.1 51.6 46.3 44.8 49.1 50.6 50.8 52.3 53.6 54.9 12 43.6 40.8 45.4 45.9 46.0 44.6 47.7 50.1 38.1 43.0 36.9 40.0 40.1 37.6 40.3 39.8 38.7 38.0 38.3 39.2 37.8 36.3 38.7 35.3 38.5 31.2 26.3 37.3 39.6 37.2 33.1 38.4 38.5 37.7 37.6 32.6 37.5 36.7 50.6 48.6 49.3 49.7 53.3 53.6 48.7 54.0 50.1 50.2 51.6 49.2 47.9 49.0 47.5 49.1 46.2 48.6 52.6 53.0 56.4 63.9 59.6 61.4 60.8 64.1 66.5 65.2 65.7 70.4 67.9 69.9 65.0 65.1 61.3 62.7 60.4 58.8 54.2 52.7 52.9 56.7 60.9 56.3 55.6 60.9 56.4 54.4 59.0 56.7 55.0 53.1 52.8 53.8 52.8 56.5 56.7 57.0 60.9 67.8 68.4 70.0 64.2 69.8 74.0 71.8 71.2 73.2 71.4 70.9 68.3 69.2 68.4 66.6 64.1 64.9 53.3 50.8 55.1 57.1 56.0 51.4 52.5 58.0 48.7 53.0 50.5 53.0 51.7 50.2 51.0 48.3 51.0 54.5 49.9 42.8 41.6 43.6 42.7 39.0 41.6 39.9 42.8 43.5 48.1 52.7 48.4 47.7 50.1 45.1 46.1 46.2 48.0 49.0 46.4 45.4 46.9 50.5 50.0 47.5 48.8 50.7 44.5 48.3 44.9 45.3 45.2 43.7 42.5 45.6 46.0 45.1 44.2 38.5 41.2 42.6 37.0 40.2 41.9 38.3 37.1 39.2 45.2 45.3 43.6 43.2 43.6 40.0 42.3 43.9 42.1 47.9 Stock of Finished Goods Backlog of Work Quantity of Purchases Input Prices Output Prices New Export Orders Raw Materials Inventory Employment Level Supplier Delivery Time New Orders Production Level COMPOSITE PMI Month Table 12: Manufacturing PMI Data Series 47.2 48.6 49.8 51.7 47.6 51.1 45.5 53.7 46.5 48.7 45.6 49.3 45.3 46.1 43.2 46.8 46.9 46.4 46.3 44.4 43.8 41.6 40.1 36.0 39.0 38.3 42.4 39.9 42.0 48.5 46.9 43.9 45.1 46.4 51.8 49.1 48.5 51.6
14. Jul '14 Aug '14 Sep '14 Oct '14 Nov '14 Dec '14 Jan '15 Feb '15 Mar '15 Apr '15 May '15 Jun '15 Jul '15 Aug '15 Sep '15 Oct '15 Nov '15 Dec '15 Jan 16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16 Jun '16 Jul '16 Aug '16 Sep '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Dec '16 Jan '17 Feb '17 Mar '17 Apr '17 May '17 June '17 July '17 Aug '17 55.0 58.9 54.7 57.3 59.6 53.8 50.6 54.0 48.6 53.7 51.7 50.1 50.0 50.7 50.1 51.9 49.6 53.4 46.9 44.3 45.4 44.3 44.3 42.3 43.2 43.7 41.0 43.4 42.8 47.1 49.4 44.5 47.1 49.5 52.7 54.2 54.4 54.1 58.9 60.6 57.1 59.6 62.5 56.2 48.8 54.2 49.7 58.2 52.9 51.5 50.4 52.3 52.1 54.2 52.9 55.9 46.2 43.7 46.3 44.2 44.3 40.2 42.8 43.6 39.9 43.0 43.0 48.2 50.6 45.4 49.8 53.3 56.2 57.0 56.8 56.1 55.9 59.8 57.5 59.4 63.6 56.0 50.4 54.7 51.1 56.8 53.1 50.3 51.4 52.4 52.3 54.1 51.6 56.4 46.4 42.0 44.7 42.2 41.3 39.6 42.3 42.0 40.0 42.7 42.3 46.9 49.4 44.9 46.4 50.5 53.2 54.6 55.1 53.5 50.2 58.3 49.9 53.9 57.9 51.4 51.2 52.5 45.6 49.1 49.7 46.4 48.6 48.0 47.0 49.3 45.6 50.0 47.0 44.5 43.9 43.3 44.6 42.5 41.9 41.4 40.3 41.5 40.2 43.8 45.6 42.6 44.0 45.5 50.2 53.4 54.0 54.4 55.2 57.0 54.3 56.4 54.6 51.5 51.9 54.5 48.0 50.8 51.1 52.0 49.5 50.1 49.1 50.1 48.5 51.5 47.9 47.1 46.5 47.6 46.9 47.1 45.8 47.7 43.9 46.4 45.5 49.5 52.0 44.9 48.0 48.6 51.4 51.8 51.9 52.3 13 54.0 56.1 52.8 53.3 57.3 54.5 48.8 54.1 49.8 51.5 51.3 48.5 50.3 50.7 48.7 49.9 51.8 54.7 57.3 53.6 58.5 62.2 62.9 60.7 60.4 60.8 63.1 65.3 66.8 64.0 65.6 65.4 62.1 63.1 62.7 58.6 58.1 54.5 46.2 47.0 46.2 46.4 49.6 45.6 43.2 46.0 46.5 46.6 44.1 44.4 43.8 43.0 44.5 43.9 42.8 47.0 44.3 39.6 43.8 43.1 38.1 39.6 38.6 39.4 39.6 40.9 42.4 41.5 43.6 42.9 42.7 41.6 45.3 40.5 42.9 42.8 44.0 46.1 40.7 40.8 45.2 43.6 41.1 43.0 39.9 41.1 37.2 36.9 39.1 39.8 42.9 40.3 37.7 41.9 36.2 37.5 34.3 31.8 33.2 33.2 30.0 32.9 28.6 32.8 30.8 33.8 32.5 33.4 33.1 29.2 31.6 30.3 32.0 34.5 47.3 46.4 45.2 44.9 47.5 46.5 44.3 44.6 44.2 44.5 39.1 40.4 39.2 38.3 41.4 42.4 39.0 42.7 39.0 36.6 35.0 33.1 35.0 34.7 32.7 34.2 30.2 33.8 34.0 35.5 36.1 34.5 34.5 33.2 34.1 33.5 36.8 34.8 Inventories (sentiment) Imports New Exports Orders Backlog of Work Average Input Price Inventory Employmen t Level New orders Business Activity COMPOSITE PMI Month Table 13: Non-Manufacturing PMI Data Series 47.8 48.1 47.6 43.8 48.1 43.8 47.0 46.1 40.2 43.0 44.3 42.7 44.0 44.0 45.9 45.2 41.8 47.2 41.6 43.6 41.1 39.8 40.3 38.5 38.0 39.4 37.9 38.7 41.1 41.6 45.5 38.7 40.6 41.1 43.6 42.7 41.5 42.0