Central Bank of Malaysia: Monthly Highlights - December 2017

Transcription

1. Monthly Highlights December 2017 Inflation increased slightly in December Contribution to Inflation ppt , yoy 5.5 %, yoy 5.5 4.5 4.5 3.5 3.5 2.5 2.5 1.5 1.5 0.5 Dec 17 3.5% 0.5 -3.5 Jul-17 May-17 Mar-17 Feb-17 Nov 17 3.4% • Food inflation also increased to 4.1% (November: 4.0%) on account of higher inflation in the food away from home sub-category (December: 5.3%, November: 5.0%). Dec-17 -2.5 Headline Inflation Oct-17 Food and non-alcoholic beverages (30.2%) -3.5 Nov-17 -2.5 Sep-17 -1.5 Aug-17 Transport (13.7%) Jun-17 -0.5 -1.5 Apr-17 Others (56.1%) Jan-17 -0.5 • Headline inflation increased slightly to 3.5% in December due mainly to higher transport inflation. Although RON95 petrol averaged lower at RM2.27 per litre in December (November: RM2.30 per litre), the lower base of RON95 price in December 2016 (RM1.90 per litre) compared to November 2016 (RM1.95 per litre) resulted in higher inflation in the transport category (December: 11.5%, November: 10.8%). Source: DOSM and staff estimate Higher IPI growth in November supported by stronger manufacturing output Contribution to Overall IPI ppt, yoy Electricity Manufacturing Mining Overall IPI 6.5 Nov 17 5.0% 4.0 1.5 Nov-17 Oct-17 Sep-17 Aug-17 Jul-17 Jun-17 May-17 Apr-17 Mar-17 Feb-17 Jan-17 Dec-16 Nov-16 -1.0 Oct 17 3.4% Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia • The overall industrial production index (IPI) recorded a higher growth of 5.0% in November (Oct: 3.4%) due to the higher expansion across the manufacturing sector, despite a moderation in both mining and electricity production. • The manufacturing sector registered a higher growth of 6.7% in November (Oct: 4.2%) driven mainly by export-oriented industries. Net financing growth continued to support economic activity Net Financing through Banking System Loans and Corporate Bonds %, yoy Banking System Loans Corporate Bonds Net Financing 20 Dec 17 6.9% 15 10 5 1 Dec-17 Nov-17 Oct-17 Sep-17 Aug-17 Jul-17 Jun-17 May-17 Apr-17 Mar-17 Feb-17 Jan-17 Dec-16 0 Nov 17 6.1% Net financing refers to loans issued by banking system (excluding development financial institutions (DFIs)) and corporate bonds. Source: Bank Negara Malaysia • Net financing1 growth increased to 6.9% in December (November: 6.1%). • Outstanding loan growth of the banking system increased to 4.1% (November: 3.9%). Compared to 2016 (5.3%), however, loan growth moderated, driven by stronger growth in business repayments. This was mainly due to scheduled repayments and higher corporate earnings. • Net outstanding issuances of corporate bonds continued to increase at doubledigit growth of 15.4% (November: 12.8%), mainly for investment and working capital purposes. 1
2. Monthly Highlights December 2017 Financial markets performed strongly amid non-resident inflows Financial Markets Performance in December 2017 Dec-17 10 .4 Ringgit (% change) 0.6 -6.7 9.4 Equity (% change) 4.6 -12 -8 • The increased demand for ringgit financial assets during the month was supported by: – Improved investor sentiments amid an upward revision in Malaysia’s growth outlook by the IMF and World Bank. – Subdued US dollar sentiments following uncertainties over the sustainability of the tax reform’s impact on the US longer-term economic growth. 5-year MGS -13.8 (bps) -16 • In December, the Malaysian financial markets performed strongly following non-resident inflows into the bond and equity markets, amounting to RM4.1 billion and RM0.9 billion respectively. -4 0 4 8 12 Source: Bank Negara Malaysia, Bursa Malaysia • In the foreign exchange derivatives market, the average 1-month USD/MYR swap points declined by 18 points to 36 points during the month amid higher dollar demand due to year-end requirements. As a result, the 1-month implied dollar funding cost increased to 2.16% as at endDecember (end-November: 2.06%). • The ringgit appreciated by 0.6% against the US dollar in December. For the year as a whole, the ringgit appreciated by 10.4% to end the year at RM4.0620 against the US dollar. Asset quality of the banking system remained sound Banking System: Asset Quality % % 4 3 Net Impaired Loans Ratio 1 120 Loan Loss Coverage Ratio (RHS) 100 2 80 1 60 Dec 17 82.9% • The level of impaired loans declined to 1.1% of total loans net of individual impairment provisions (Nov: 1.2%). The lower level of impaired loans is attributed to write-offs and recoveries. (Nov 17: 84%) • Banks maintained sufficient buffers for potential credit losses. Loan loss coverage ratio stood at 82.9% (Nov: 84%). Dec 17 1.1% (Nov 17: 1.2%) 0 Dec 15 Feb 16 Apr 16 Jun 16 Aug 16 Oct 16 Dec 16 Feb 17 Apr 17 Jun 17 Aug 17 Oct 17 Dec 17 40 1 Refers to ratio of individual plus collective impairment provisions to total impaired loans Source: Bank Negara Malaysia 2
3. SIARAN AKHBAR Ref . No.: 01/18/13 EMBARGO: Not for publication or broadcast before 1500 hours on Tuesday, 30 January 2018 MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2017 Inflation increased slightly in December • Headline inflation increased slightly to 3.5% in December due mainly to higher transport inflation. Although RON95 petrol averaged lower at RM2.27 per litre in December (November: RM2.30 per litre), the lower base of RON95 price in December 2016 (RM1.90 per litre) compared to November 2016 (RM1.95 per litre) resulted in higher inflation in the transport category (December: 11.5%, November: 10.8%). • Food inflation also increased to 4.1% (November: 4.0%) on account of higher inflation in the food away from home sub-category (December: 5.3%, November: 5.0%). Higher IPI growth in November supported by stronger manufacturing output • The overall industrial production index (IPI) recorded a higher growth of 5.0% in November (Oct: 3.4%) due to the higher expansion across the manufacturing sector, despite a moderation in both mining and electricity production. • The manufacturing sector registered a higher growth of 6.7% in November (Oct: 4.2%) driven mainly by export-oriented industries. Net financing growth continued to support economic activity • Net financing 1 growth increased to 6.9% in December (November: 6.1%). • Outstanding loan growth of the banking system increased to 4.1% (November: 3.9%). Compared to 2016 (5.3%), however, loan growth moderated, driven by stronger growth in business repayments. This was mainly due to scheduled repayments and higher corporate earnings. 1 Net financing refers to loans issued by banking system (excluding development financial institutions (DFIs)) and corporate bonds.
4. • Net outstanding issuances of corporate bonds continued to increase at double-digit growth of 15.4% (November: 12.8%), mainly for investment and working capital purposes. Financial markets performed strongly amid non-resident inflows • In December, the Malaysian financial markets performed strongly following non-resident inflows into the bond and equity markets, amounting to RM4.1 billion and RM0.9 billion respectively. • The increased demand for ringgit financial assets during the month was supported by: – Improved investor sentiments amid an upward revision in Malaysia’s growth outlook by the IMF and World Bank. – Subdued US dollar sentiments following uncertainties over the sustainability of the tax reform’s impact on the US longer-term economic growth. • In the foreign exchange derivatives market, the average 1-month USD/MYR swap points declined by 18 points to 36 points during the month amid higher dollar demand due to year-end requirements. As a result, the 1-month implied dollar funding cost increased to 2.16% as at end-December (end-November: 2.06%). • The ringgit appreciated by 0.6% against the US dollar in December. For the year as a whole, the ringgit appreciated by 10.4% to end the year at RM4.0620 against the US dollar. Asset quality of the banking system remained sound • The level of impaired loans declined to 1.1% of total loans net of individual impairment provisions (Nov: 1.2%). The lower level of impaired loans is attributed to write-offs and recoveries. • Banks maintained sufficient buffers for potential credit losses. Loan loss coverage ratio stood at 82.9% (Nov: 84%). Bank Negara Malaysia 30 January 2018 Diterbitkan oleh: Jabatan Komunikasi Strategik, Tingkat 14, Blok B, Bangunan Bank Negara Malaysia, Jalan Dato’ Onn, 50480 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Telefon: +60(3) 2698 8044 Faksimili: +60(3) 2693 6919 W eb: www.bnm.gov.my