Bangladesh: Major Economic Indicators: Monthly Update - December 2016

Transcription

1. Volume 12 /2016 December 2016 Major Economic Indicators: Monthly Update Monetary Policy Department BANGLADESH BANK
2. Contents Executive summary ……………………………………………………………………..…………………... 1. Monetary and credit developments 2. Reserve money developments Page No. 1-2 ……………………………………………..……….…………... 03 …………………………………………………….......................... 04 3. 4. CPI and inflation ……………………………………………….................................................. Liquidity position of the scheduled banks ….…………………………..………………..…………. 05 06 5. 6. Financial sector prices a) Interest rate development …..…..………………………...................................................... b) Interest rate spread ……………..…………………………………………..................................... Capital market developments .………………………………………………….………….…………… 07 08 09 7. Agricultural credit and non-farm rural credit …….…………………….……………..……………… 10 8. 9. a) Industrial term loans …………………….….……............................................................. b) Outstanding position of SME loans ….……………………………..................................... Industrial production ………………………………..…………………………….………………………. 11 11 12 10. Exports 13 13 14 11. a) Annual exports ………………………………………………………………. b) Monthly exports ………………………………..……………………………. c) Category-wise breakdown of exports .……………………………....................................... Imports a) Custom based import, import LCs settlement and LCs opening ……………….………… b) Sector-wise fresh opening, settlement and outstanding LCs .……………………..………….. 15 16 12. c) Projected data on opening of import LCs & probable liabilities against BTB LCs Workers’ remittances ………………………………………………………………………....…………… 16 17 13. Foreign exchange holdings by Bangladesh Bank and commercial banks …………………… 17 14. Foreign aid 18 15. Exchange rate movements 16. Balance of payments ……………………………………………………………………………………………..…….. …………………….……………………………………….……………….. 19 …..…………………….………………………………………………..…………… 20 17. Public finance 18. a) Government tax revenue collections …………………………………………………..…….……. b) Sale and repayment of NSD certificates ……………………………………………..………….. c) Budget financing ……………………………………………………….…………………..…………. Food situations ……………………………………………………………………………..……………… 21 22 23 23 Appendix …………………………………………………………………...................................... 0 24 -25
3. Executive Summary 1 . Movement of monetary indicators Broad money(M2) growth picked up slightly while private sector credit growth slowed down a bit in October 2016 Broad money (M2) grew by 13.77 percent (y-o-y) in October 2016 which was higher than 13.40 percent in the preceding month but the same as the percentage increase in the same month of the previous year. Net foreign assets and net domestic assets registered 21.62 percent and 11.19 percent growth respectively in October 2016. Private sector credit recorded 15.20 percent growth in October 2016 which was lower than 15.34 percent of September 2016 but higher than 13.22 percent in the same month of the previous year. 2. Inflation scenario Both 12-month average inflation and point to point inflation moderated in November 2016 The twelve-month average inflation pulled down to 5.60 percent in November 2016 from 5.66 percent in October 2016 due to decrease in both food and non food inflation. The point-to-point general inflation decreased to 5.38 percent in November 2016 from 5.57 percent in October 2016, coming down both in food and nonfood inflation from October 2016. 3. State of the financial sector Interest rate spread narrowed in October 2016 The spread between the weighted average interest rates on advances and deposits of all banks stood at 4.70 percent in October 2016 from 4.72 percent of the previous month. The weighted average call money rate in the inter-bank money market marginally increased to 3.60 percent up to 26 December 2016, as compared to 3.56 percent in November 2016. 4. External sector performance Export growth remained steady during the first five months of FY17 Bangladesh earned USD 13.69 billion export proceeds during July-November, 2016 Import increased during the first four months of FY17 Custom based import during July-October, 2016 increased by 7.93 percent and stood which was 6.30 percent higher than USD 12.88 billion during the same period of the previous fiscal year according to EPB data. at USD 14.39 billion compared to USD 13.34 billion during the same period of the previous fiscal year. Fresh opening of import LCs during July-October, 2016 increased by 14.45 percent and stood at USD 14.89 billion as compared to July-October, 2015. From the sectoral distribution of LCs opening during the mentioned period, it is revealed that LCs opening for the industrial raw materials is the highest at 35.17 percent of total LCs opening followed by consumer goods of 13.02 percent. 1
4. External sector performance (contd.) Bangladesh has experienced negative growth in receiving workers’ remittances from the beginning of the FY17 Receipts of workers’ remittance in November 2016 decreased by 5.90 percent and stood at USD 0.95 billion as compared to October 2016. It also decreased by 16.73 percent than that of the same month of the previous year. Total receipts of workers’ remittances decreased by 15.65 percent during July-November, 2016 and stood at USD 5.21 billion as compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year. Current account balance recorded a deficit of USD 0.02 billion during July-October, Current account balance continues on 2016 due mainly to a significant trade deficit and lower income from services and deficit from the third month of FY17 primary income accounts compared to July-October, 2015. Both the total and net reciept of foreign aid increased marginally during the first four months of the FY17. The total foreign aid disbursements during July-October, 2016 increased marginally by Forex reserves crossed USD 32 billion The gross foreign exchange reserves of BB stood at USD 31.37 billion (with ACU USD 0.004 billion or 0.50 percent and stood at USD 0.74 billion. Net receipt of foreign aid also increased by USD 0.01 billion or 2.71 percent and stood at USD 0.45 billion during July-October, 2016 as compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year. liability of USD 0.49 billion) as of end November 2016, as compared to USD 31.90 billion (with ACU liability of USD 0.79 billion) as of end October 2016. As per latest available data, the gross foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 32.02 billion (with ACU liability of USD 0.88 billion) as of 26 December 2016. 5. Developments in the fiscal sector Tax revenue collection picked up remarkably during the first four months of FY17. NBR Tax Revenue collection stood at Taka 49874.68 crore during July-October, 2016 which was 17.77 percent higher than the collection of Taka 42350.67 crore of JulyOctober, 2015. 6. Credit disbursement and industrial production Agricultural credit, the general index of industrial production, SME loans and industrial term loans have increased during the period under review. The disbursement of agricultural credit and non-farm rural credit increased by 15.45 percent and 0.86 percent respectively during July-October 2016 as compared to JulyOctober 2015. Outstanding SME loans provided by banks and non-bank financial institutions at the end of September 2016 increased by 16.14 percent compared to the same period of the previous year. Disbursement of industrial term loans during the first quarter of FY17 increased by 2.72 percent and stood at Taka 13044.95 crore and recovery increased by 12.20 percent as compared to the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year. The general index of industrial production (medium & large scale manufacturing) stood at 280.42 during July-August 2016 recorded an increase of 9.53 percent from the index of 256.01 during July-August 2015. The information furnished in this executive summary and the subsequent pages are provisional and subject to revision. 2
5. 1 . Monetary and credit developments (Taka in Crore) Outstanding stock Changes in outstanding stock Particulars June 2015 June 2016 R October 2016 P FY 2016 R July-October, 2016 October 2016 over October 2015 July-October, 2015 October 2015 over October 2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 A. Net Foreign Assets of banking system 189228.80 233135.60 247313.70 43906.80 (+23.20) 14178.10 (+6.08) 43957.00 (+21.62) 14127.90 (+7.47) 39445.80 (+24.07) B. Net Domestic Assets of banking system 598385.30 683242.30 685912.90 84857.00 (+14.18) 2670.60 (+0.39) 69012.50 (+11.19) 18515.10 (+3.09) 59846.40 (+10.74) 701526.50 801280.00 810510.80 99753.50 (+14.22) 9230.80 (+1.15) 87057.40 (+12.03) 21926.90 (+3.13) 66114.20 (+10.06) 126927.10 130270.70 125429.90 3343.60 (+2.63) -4840.80 (-3.72) -3346.10 (-2.60) 1848.90 (+1.46) -3329.90 (-2.52) 110257.30 114219.60 110012.40 3962.30 (+3.59) -4207.20 (-3.68) -2617.20 (-2.32) 2372.30 (+2.15) -5007.00 (-4.26) 16669.80 16051.10 15417.50 -618.70 (-3.71) -633.60 (-3.95) -728.90 (-4.51) -523.40 (-3.14) 1677.10 (+11.59) Private sector 574599.40 671009.30 685080.90 96409.90 (+16.78) 14071.60 (+2.10) 90403.50 (+15.20) 20078.00 (+3.49) 69444.10 (+13.22) b) Other items (net) -103141.20 -118037.70 -124597.90 -14896.50 -6560.20 -18044.90 -3411.80 -6267.80 787614.10 916377.90 933226.60 128763.80 16848.70 112969.50 32643.00 99292.20 (+16.35) (+1.84) (+13.77) (+4.14) (+13.77) a) Domestic credit Public sector Government (net) Other Public C. Broad money (A+B) i) Currency outside banks 87940.80 122074.50 112704.50 34133.70 (+38.81) -9370.00 (-7.68) 18816.00 (+20.04) 5947.70 (+6.76) 10779.80 (+12.97) ii) Deposits 699673.30 794303.40 820522.10 94630.10 (+13.52) 26218.70 (+3.30) 94153.50 (+12.96) 26695.30 (+3.82) 88512.40 (+13.88) a) Demand deposits 72873.40 90356.20 85023.70 17482.80 (+23.99) -5332.50 (-5.90) 14517.60 (+20.59) -2367.30 (-3.25) 11359.00 (+19.20) b) Time deposits 626799.90 703947.20 735498.40 77147.30 (+12.31) 31551.20 (+4.48) 79635.90 (+12.14) 29062.60 (+4.64) 77153.40 (+13.33) Source: Statistics Department. Note:- Figures in brackets of column#5,6 and 8 indicate percentage changes over end June of the corresponding previous fiscal year. P=provisional, R= Revised. Broad money The broad money recorded an increase of Taka 112969.50 crore or 13.77 percent at the end of October 2016 against the increase of Taka 99292.20 crore or 13.77 percent at the end of October 2015. Of the sources of broad money, net domestic assets (NDA) rose by Taka 69012.50 crore or 11.19 percent and net foreign assets (NFA) rose by Taka 43957.00 crore or 21.62 percent at the end of October 2016 as compared to the same month of the previous year. Domestic credit The domestic credit recorded an increase of Taka 87057.40 crore or 12.03 percent at the end of October 2016 against the increase of Taka 66114.20 crore or 10.06 percent at the end of October 2015. Credit to the private sector recorded a growth of 15.20 percent and credit to the public sector decreased by 2.60 percent in October 2016 as compared to the same month of the previous year. Trends of broad money growth (year-on-year) 17.0 Trends of domestic credit growth (year-on-year) 2015-16 2016-17 2015-16 14.0 2016-17 16.0 Percentage 15.0 14.0 13.40 13.77 11.89 12.03 12.0 11.0 10.06 13.77 13.0 10.0 Jun. May Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sep. Jul. 3 Aug. 9.0 Jun. May Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sep. Aug. 12.0 Jul. Percentage 13.0
6. 2 . Reserve money developments (Taka in crore) Outstanding stock Changes in outstanding stock Particulars June 2015 June, 2016 R October, 2016 P FY 2016 R July-October, 2016 October 2016 over October 2015 July-October, 2015 October 2015 over October 2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Net Foreign Assets of Bangladesh Bank 177401.30 218904.10 234188.50 41502.80 (+23.39) 15284.40 (+6.98) 42545.40 (+22.20) 14241.80 (+8.03) 37132.90 (+24.03) Net Domestic Assets of Bangladesh Bank -28918.80 -25702.80 -47540.00 3216.00 (+11.12) -21837.20 (-84.96) -19896.60 (-71.98) 1275.40 (+4.41) -13197.00 (-91.35) Claims on Govt.(net) 810.50 13373.70 1350.80 12563.20 -12022.90 6566.40 -6026.10 1204.90 Claims on other public 2160.80 2015.50 1988.90 (+1550.06) -145.30 (-6.72) (-89.90) -26.60 (-1.32) (-125.90) -134.90 (-6.35) #REF! -37.00 (-1.71) (-18.77) 1038.20 (+95.63) Claims on DMBs 5659.20 6024.40 5210.70 365.20 (+6.45) -9567.10 -813.70 (-13.51) -8974.00 -834.80 (-13.81) -25493.30 386.30 (+6.83) 6952.20 -4515.10 (-42.75) -10925.00 -37549.30 -47116.40 -56090.40 Reserve money Other items (net) 148482.50 193201.30 186648.50 44718.80 (+30.12) -6552.80 (-3.39) 22648.80 (+13.81) 15517.20 (+10.45) 23935.90 (+17.09) Currency Issued 98153.90 132305.20 123414.20 34151.30 (+34.79) -8891.00 (-6.72) 20947.70 (+20.44) 4312.60 (+4.39) 10678.30 (+11.63) i) Currency outside banks 87940.80 122074.50 112704.50 34133.70 (+38.81) -9370.00 (-7.68) 18816.00 (+20.04) 5947.70 (+6.76) 10779.80 (+12.97) ii) Cash in tills 10213.10 10230.70 10709.70 50328.60 60896.10 63234.30 17.60 (+0.17) 10567.50 (+21.00) 479.00 (+4.68) 2338.20 (+3.84) 2131.70 (+24.85) 1701.10 (+2.76) -1635.10 (-16.01) 11204.60 (+22.26) -101.50 (-1.17) 13257.60 (+27.46) 2323.89 5986.55 6454.26 3662.66 467.71 -4368.93 8499.30 7072.74 5.30 4.74 5.00 -0.56 0.26 -0.00 -0.30 -0.15 Deposits held with BB Of which: Excess reserves Reserve money multiplier Source: Statistics Department. Note:- Figures in brackets of column#5,6 and 8 indicate percentage changes over end June of the corresponding previous fiscal year. P=provisional, R= Revised. Reserve Money Reserve money recorded an increase of Taka 22648.80 crore or 13.81 percent in October 2016 which is lower Trends of reserve money growth (year-on-year) 35.0 than the increase of Taka 23935.90 crore or 17.09 2015-16 2016-17 30.0 13.81 10.0 4 Jun. May Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. 5.0 as compared to 4.74 of June 2016. Nov. Reserve money multiplier stood at 5.00 in October 2016 15.0 Oct. October 2016 against that of October 2015. 16.69 17.09 Sep. net domestic assets decreased by Taka 19896.60 crore in 20.0 Aug. increased by Taka 42545.40 crore or 22.20 percent and 25.0 Jul. reserve money, Bangladesh Bank’s net foreign assets Percentage percent growth in October 2015. Of the sources of
7. 3 . CPI and Inflation Consumer Price Index(CPI) and Rate of Inflation at National Level (Base : FY2005-06=100) Twelve-Month Average Basis General Index Inflation Food Index Inflation Point to Point Basis Non-food Index General Inflation Food Non-food Index Inflation Index Inflation Index Inflation 2014-15 July 196.18 7.28 211.11 8.55 177.04 5.41 199.94 7.04 214.75 7.94 180.95 5.71 August 197.27 7.24 212.40 8.51 177.86 5.37 202.53 6.91 218.66 7.67 181.85 5.76 September 198.36 7.22 213.72 8.48 178.68 5.34 205.39 6.84 222.66 7.63 183.25 5.63 October 199.43 7.18 214.97 8.37 179.51 5.40 206.81 6.60 224.23 7.16 184.47 5.74 November 200.44 7.10 216.10 8.18 180.36 5.47 206.86 6.21 223.81 6.44 185.14 5.84 December 201.44 6.99 217.13 7.91 181.31 5.60 207.78 6.11 224.29 5.86 186.62 6.48 January 202.43 6.87 218.21 7.68 182.20 5.64 210.12 6.04 226.61 6.07 188.98 6.01 February 203.45 6.76 219.30 7.45 183.13 5.71 210.73 6.14 227.26 6.11 189.58 6.20 March 204.49 6.66 220.44 7.24 184.04 5.78 211.31 6.27 228.12 6.37 189.77 6.12 April 205.54 6.57 221.60 7.03 184.95 5.85 211.51 6.32 228.39 6.48 189.86 6.08 May 206.55 6.46 222.69 6.81 185.86 5.93 208.77 6.19 223.37 6.23 190.06 6.14 June 207.58 6.41 223.80 6.68 186.79 5.99 209.17 6.25 223.43 6.32 190.88 6.15 2015-16 July 208.64 6.35 224.88 6.53 187.81 6.08 212.65 6.36 227.80 6.07 193.26 6.80 August 209.68 6.29 225.99 6.39 188.77 6.13 215.03 6.17 231.91 6.06 193.39 6.35 September 210.75 6.24 227.09 6.25 189.80 6.22 218.21 6.24 235.85 5.92 195.59 6.73 October 211.81 6.21 228.19 6.15 190.82 6.30 219.62 6.19 237.44 5.89 196.77 6.67 November 212.86 6.20 229.25 6.09 191.84 6.36 219.38 6.05 236.61 5.72 197.29 6.56 December 213.91 6.19 230.28 6.05 192.94 6.41 220.45 6.10 236.57 5.48 199.78 7.05 January 214.98 6.20 231.09 5.90 194.31 6.65 222.87 6.07 236.42 4.33 205.50 8.74 February 215.96 6.15 231.81 5.70 195.65 6.84 222.58 5.62 235.82 3.77 205.62 8.46 March 216.96 6.10 232.55 5.49 196.97 7.03 223.25 5.65 236.99 3.89 205.64 8.36 April 217.95 6.04 233.28 5.27 198.29 7.21 223.37 5.61 237.15 3.84 205.70 8.34 May 218.89 5.98 233.99 5.07 199.55 7.36 220.15 5.45 231.86 3.81 205.13 7.92 June 219.86 5.92 234.77 4.90 200.74 7.47 220.74 5.53 232.87 4.23 205.19 7.50 July 220.82 5.84 235.60 4.76 201.86 7.48 224.13 5.40 237.69 4.35 206.75 6.98 August 221.78 5.77 236.43 4.62 202.99 7.53 226.57 5.37 241.89 4.30 206.93 7.00 September 222.78 5.71 237.43 4.56 204.00 7.48 230.27 5.53 247.88 5.10 207.69 6.19 October 223.80 5.66 238.53 4.53 204.91 7.38 231.85 5.57 250.64 5.56 207.75 5.58 November 224.78 5.60 239.60 4.51 205.79 7.27 231.18 5.38 249.41 5.41 207.81 5.33 2016-17 Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Planning. 5 12 month average Point to point 6.3 6.0 5.8 Oct.16 Nov.16 Sep.16 Jul.16 Aug.16 Jun.16 Apr.16 May.16 Mar.16 Jan.16 Feb.16 5.3 Dec.15 5.5 Nov.15 The point to point general inflation fell to 5.38 percent in November 2016 from 5.57 percent in October 2016, resulting from fall in both food and non-food inflation. Food inflation stood at 5.41 percent and nonfood inflation fell to 5.33 percent in November 2016 as compared to 5.56 percent and 5.58 percent in October 2016 respectively. CPI(Base:FY2005-06=100) Inflation 6.5 Percentage The twelve month average general inflation pulled down to 5.60 percent in November 2016, continuing on the trend that goes below the lowest in the last 10 years. The average food inflation decreased to 4.51 percent and the average nonfood inflation decreased to 7.27 percent in November 2016 from 4.53 percent and 7.38 percent respectively in October 2016.
8. 4 . Liquidity position of the scheduled banks (In crore Taka) As of end June, 2016 Bank Group 1 As of end October 2016 P Total Liquid Assets Cash in tills + balances with Sonali Bank Ltd. 2 3 Balances with Bangladesh Bank1/ Minimum Required Unencumbered approved securities Total Liquid Assets Liquid Assets 2/ Local Currency Foreign Currency 4a 4b 5 6=(3+4a+4b+5) 7 CRR * Excess Reserve (un-invested cash) State owned Banks 108038.80 1867.25 15730.48 191.59 358.46 92666.31 110814.10 46857.62 Specialised Banks 1539.88 0.00 1589.40 0.00 12.07 0.00 1601.47 1589.40 Private Banks (Other than Islamic) 103584.56 7274.54 25639.77 1272.66 3882.97 75436.15 113506.09 76399.44 Islamic Banks 29090.97 2125.81 11034.08 3679.36 627.17 12924.68 30391.10 20370.62 Foreign Banks 19972.54 535.48 2485.13 1027.46 2860.55 14686.97 21595.59 7380.51 Total 262226.74 11803.09 56478.87 6171.07 7741.22 195714.10 277908.35 152597.59 (+4.25) (+20.32) (+2.22) (+2.79) (+70.42) Source : Department of Offsite Supervision. Note :- Figures in brackets indicate sectoral share in the total liquid assets. P=provisional, R= Revised. *CRR is calculated @ 6.5% of total demand and time liabilities. 1/ Balances with Bangladesh Bank in local currency = CRR + Excess Reserve. 2/ Minimum required liquid assets is the sum of CRR and SLR. Total liquid assets of the scheduled banks stood at Taka 277908.35 crore as of end Octobert 2016 which was Taka 262226.74 crore at the end of June 2016. The minimum required liquid assets of the scheduled banks was Taka 152597.59 crore as of end October 2016. Scheduled banks’ holding of liquid assets as of end October 2016 in the form of cash in tills & balances with Sonali Bank Ltd., CRR, excess reserves, FC clearing account balances with Bangladesh Bank and un-encumbered approved securities are 4.25 percent, 20.32 percent, 2.22 percent, 2.79 percent, and 70.42 percent respectively of total liquid assets. Liquid assets & required liquidity Sectoral distribution of total liquid assets (as of end October 2016) 3250 2650 2350 billion taka Balances with BB (Foreign Currency), 2.79% Excess Reserve (Uninvested Cash), 2.22% Liquid assets Minimum Required Liquid Assets 2950 Unencumbered approved securities, 70.42% 2050 1750 1450 1150 850 550 6 Oct.16 Sep.16 Jul.16 Aug.16 Jun.16 May.16 Apr.16 Mar.16 Jan.16 Feb.16 Dec.15 Oct.15 Nov.15 Sep. 15 250 Aug. 15 CRR, 20.32% Cash in tills+balances with SB, 4.25%
9. 5 . Financial sector prices: a) Interest rate development 1/: Treasury Bills BGTB BB Bill Repo* 91-Day 182-Day 364-Day 2-Year 5-Year 10-Year 15-Year 20-Year 30-Day Call Reverse Repo* Money Rate 2015-16 July 5.33 6.28 6.62 7.62 8.56 9.75 10.03 10.35 5.25 7.25 5.25 5.67 August 5.41 5.91 6.34 7.11 7.57 8.39 8.57 8.93 5.25 7.25 5.25 5.63 September 5.33 5.58 6.15 6.41 7.31 8.18 8.43 8.98 5.25 7.25 5.25 5.71 R October November 5.17 5.54 5.67 6.41 7.35 7.96 7.83 8.20 5.01 7.25 5.25 5.63 2.95 3.74 4.06 4.19 5.08 6.55 8.09 8.47 4.03 7.25 5.25 3.85 December 2.94 3.32 4.11 4.86 5.04 7.23 7.87 8.97 3.38 7.25 5.25 3.69 January 2.81 4.10 4.36 5.81 6.44 7.38 7.44 7.64 2.90 6.75 4.75 3.90 February 2.69 ---- ---- 4.79 5.89 5.95 7.18 7.58 2.88 6.75 4.75 3.73 March 2.87 ---- 3.76 4.97 5.92 6.64 7.57 7.97 2.90 6.75 4.75 3.68 April 3.46 4.51 4.93 5.25 6.16 6.91 7.79 8.19 2.95 6.75 4.75 3.68 May 3.55 4.45 5.04 5.52 6.21 7.02 7.84 8.28 2.96 6.75 4.75 3.67 June 3.96 4.67 5.17 5.97 6.51 7.29 7.97 8.41 2.96 6.75 4.75 3.70 4.72 5.31 5.88 6.50 7.05 7.46 7.97 8.44 2.93 6.75 4.75 3.68 3.48 ---- ---- 5.99 6.53 7.10 7.80 8.24 2.96 6.75 4.75 3.65 3.26 3.12 2.99 3.99 3.35 ---- 4.25 4.00 ---- 5.31 5.19 4.39 ---6.00 5.72 ---6.89 6.77 7.69 7.53 7.46 8.17 7.99 7.91 2.96 2.97 2.97 6.75 6.75 6.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 3.64 3.52 3.56 2.98 3.23 3.76 ---- 5.91 6.32 ---- ---- 2.97 6.75 4.75 3.60 2016-17 July August September October November @ December Source: MPD, DMD Bangladesh Bank . 1/ Weighted average rate. ---- = there was no auction. @ = upto 26 th December, 2016. * The Repo and Reverse Repo rates are re-fixed at 6.75% and 4.75% respectively, with effect from 14.01.2016. The weighted average yield on 91-Day Treasury Bills up to 26 December, 2016 marginally decreased to 2.98 percent as compared to that of November 2016. The weighted average yield on 182-Day Treasury Bills fell to 3.23 percent and 364-Day Treasury Bills to 3.76 percent up to 26 December, 2016 as compared to the yields of October 2016. The weighted average yield on 5-Year BGTB increased to 5.91 percent while that of 10-Year BGTB decreased to 6.32 percent in December 2016 compared to the previous month. The weighted average yield on 2-Year, 15-Year and 20Year BGTB in November 2016 decreased to 4.39 percent, 5.72 percent, 6.77 percent, 7.46 percent and 7.91 percent respectively from the yield of October 2016. The weighted average yield on 30-Day BB Bill up to 26 December, 2016 remained the same as that of November 2016. The weighted average call money rate in the inter-bank money market increased to 3.60 percent up to 26 December, 2016 as compared to 3.56 percent in November 2016. 7 Dec.16 Nov.16 Oct.16 364-Day Sep.16 Aug.16 Jul.16 182-Day Jun.16 Nov.16 Oct. 16 Sep.16 Aug.16 Jul. 16 Dec.16 (up to 26) u Jun.16 May16 Apr.16 Mar.16 Feb.16 3.0 Jan.16 3.8 May16 4.5 Apr.16 5.3 Mar.16 6.0 91-Day Feb.16 W.ave. yield in percent Call Money Rate 6.8 Dec.15 W. average rate in percent Reverse Repo* Yield on Treasury Bills Jan.16 Repo* 7.5 7.3 6.8 6.3 5.8 5.3 4.8 4.3 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.3 Dec.15 Repo, Reverse Repo & Call Money Rate
10. b ) Interest rate spread: Sector-wise break down of Interest Rate Spread in the banks All sectors SME Agriculture Large Industries (excluding SME ) All Banks Interest rate on deposits Non-Bank FIs' Services Interest Interest Interest Interest Interest Interest rate on Spread rate on Spread rate on Spread rate on Spread rate on Spread rate on Spread advances advances advances advances advances advances Interest rate on deposits Interest rate on Spread advances 2015-16 July 6.78 11.57 4.79 12.67 5.89 11.27 4.49 9.81 3.03 11.37 4.59 11.97 5.19 10.54 14.70 4.16 August 6.74 11.51 4.77 12.58 5.84 11.22 4.48 9.73 2.99 11.31 4.57 11.96 5.22 10.41 14.52 4.11 September 6.66 11.48 4.82 12.49 5.83 11.20 4.54 9.77 3.11 11.11 4.45 11.36 4.70 10.34 14.45 4.11 October 6.58 11.35 4.77 12.45 5.87 11.04 4.46 9.71 3.13 10.94 4.36 11.50 4.92 10.16 14.32 4.16 November 6.46 11.27 4.81 12.23 5.77 10.98 4.52 9.66 3.20 10.91 4.45 11.44 4.98 10.02 14.16 4.14 December 6.34 11.18 4.84 12.33 5.99 10.86 4.52 9.63 3.29 10.78 4.44 11.10 4.76 9.87 14.03 4.16 January 6.21 11.05 4.84 12.36 6.15 10.49 4.28 9.56 3.35 10.55 4.34 11.04 4.83 9.72 13.90 4.18 February 6.10 10.91 4.81 12.02 5.92 10.39 4.29 9.58 3.48 10.41 4.31 10.92 4.82 9.55 13.72 4.17 March 5.92 10.78 4.86 11.74 5.82 10.51 4.59 9.59 3.67 10.19 4.27 10.80 4.88 9.34 13.51 4.17 April 5.77 10.64 4.87 11.64 5.87 10.36 4.59 9.54 3.77 10.24 4.47 10.80 5.03 9.16 13.27 4.11 May June 5.67 10.57 4.90 11.57 5.90 10.29 4.62 9.49 3.82 9.88 4.21 10.52 4.85 9.01 13.16 4.15 5.54 10.39 4.85 11.48 5.94 10.08 4.54 9.50 3.96 9.80 4.26 10.39 4.85 8.95 13.07 4.12 July 5.48 10.32 4.84 11.35 5.87 10.03 4.55 9.43 3.95 9.77 4.29 10.32 4.84 8.90 12.89 3.99 August 5.44 10.24 4.80 11.21 5.77 9.97 4.53 9.61 4.17 9.75 4.31 10.29 4.85 8.84 12.80 3.96 September 5.39 10.11 4.72 11.04 5.65 9.90 4.51 9.70 4.31 9.62 4.23 10.07 4.68 8.71 12.68 3.97 October 5.33 10.03 4.70 10.90 5.57 9.79 4.46 9.57 4.24 9.46 4.13 10.02 4.69 8.61 12.73 4.12 2016-17 R Source: Statistics Department, Bangladesh Bank . The spread between the weighted average interest rate on advances and deposits of all banks narrowed further and stood at 4.70 percent in October, 2016 from that of September, 2016. The sectors for which spread between the weighted average interest rate on advances and deposits of all banks narrowed in September, 2016 compared to the previous month are: SME sector (5.57 percent), agricultural sector (4.24 percent) and large industries sector (4.13 percent) and also all sectors excluding SME sector (4.46 percent). The spread of all banks widened marginally in October, 2016 only for the service sector (4.69 percent) as compared to the previous month. The spread of NBFIs widened (4.12 percent) in October 2016 after a continued falling trend from 4.15 percent in May 2016 to 3.96 percent in August 2016. The weighted average interest rate on deposits for all banks fell to 5.33 percent and to 8.61 percent for NBFIs in October, 2016. Spread of advances & deposits rate 5.2 Excluding SME Sector-wise breakdown of interest rate spread 7.2 NBFIs Banks SME 6.7 5.0 Agriculture Large Industries Services 4.7 4.2 8 Oct. 16 Sep. 16 Aug 16 Jul. 16 Jun. 16 May. 16 Apr. 16 Mar. 16 Feb. 16 Oct. 16 Sep. 16 Aug 16 Jul. 16 Jun. 16 May. 16 Apr. 16 Mar. 16 Feb. 16 Jan. 16 2.7 Dec. 15 3.8 Nov. 15 3.2 Jan. 16 3.7 4.0 Dec. 15 4.2 5.2 Nov. 15 4.4 5.7 Oct. 15 W. Ave. rate in percent 4.6 Oct. 15 W. Ave. rate in percent 6.2 4.8
11. 6 . Capital market developments: Calender Year Annual capital market developments (DSE) (Taka in crore ) General Index / Enlisted issues Issued Capital Market DSE (Incl. Mutual Turnover during and Debentures Capitalisation Broad Index Funds/Deb.) the Year 2010 445 66436.00 347250.20 400991.28 8290.41 2011 501 87890.50 261673.00 156055.63 5257.61 2012 515 94987.60 240356.00 100108.49 4219.31 2013 529 99978.50 264779.00 95269.21 4266.55 2014 546 105492.60 325925.00 118852.15 4864.96 2015 559 110608.10 315976.00 103139.86 4629.64 Monthly capital market developments (DSE) Enlisted issues (Taka in crore) DSE Broad Index (Incl. Mutual Issued capital Market Turnover during Funds/Deb.) and debentures capitalisation the month (DSEX) January,16 562 110860.70 315307.00 11349.63 4540.89 February,16 562 110982.70 314350.00 8642.15 4511.97 March,16 560 111163.60 303642.00 7997.27 4357.54 April,16 558 111557.40 299985.00 7504.74 4195.70 May,16 558 112116.00 310875.00 8142.22 4419.39 June,16 559 112741.00 318574.93 8138.30 4507.58 July,16 559 113000.40 320736.90 6573.62 4525.35 August,16 558 113039.20 319256.00 9629.30 4526.58 September,16 559 113138.80 328190.90 8689.38 4695.19 October,16 559 113449.00 323633.80 10560.50 4592.18 End Month Source : Dhaka Stock Exchange Trends in market capitalisation and indices of DSE 3600 5500 Capitalisation 3400 stood lower at 4592.18 compared to the index of end DSEX 5250 5000 3200 2600 4000 3750 2400 3500 9 Oct.16 Sep.16 Jul.16 Aug.16 Jun.16 Apr.16 Ma y.16 Ma r.16 Jan.16 3000 Feb.16 3250 2000 Dec.15 2200 Aug.15 from Taka 328190.90 crore at the end of September 2016. 4250 Oct.15 October 2016 also stood lower at Taka 323633.80 crore 4500 2800 Nov.15 shares and debentures of the listed securities at the end of 4750 3000 Sep.15 billion taka September 2016. The total market capitalization of all DSEX The DSE Broad Index (DSEX) at the end of October 2016
12. 7 . Agricultural credit and non-farm rural credit Disbursement Recovery 770.17 711.63 3300 850.00 886.91 3000 1242.68 1205.65 1200 110.69 51.87 86.74 78.70 73.48 105.92 107.43 112.53 900 142.74 184.67 511.58 (+0.86) 178.51 109.42 445.71 (-1.26) 147.22 165.82 507.21 (+51.22) 122.25 137.92 451.40 (-3.22) 600 Programmed level for disbursement of agricultural credit and non-farm rural credit was Tk.17550.00 crore for FY17. Jun. May 300 Non-farm rural credit disbursement 270 The disbursement of agricultural credit and non-farm rural credit increased by 15.45 percent and 0.86 percent respectively during July-October 2016 compared to that of July-October 2015. The banks disbursed a total of Taka 52.73 billion to both the sectors. The recovery from the agriculture sector increased by 15.69 percent and recovery from non-farm rural credit decreased by 1.26 percent during July-October 2016 compared to the same period of the preceding year. 2015-16 250 2016-17 230 210 In crore taka 190 170 150 130 110 90 70 50 The position of overdue agricultural credit as percentage of total outstanding improved decreasing from 21.25 percent at the end of October 2015 to 18.08 percent at the end of October 2016. Jun. Jul. 30 May July-October 1500 Apr. August September October Recovery Apr. July Disbursement 1800 Mar. Disbursement Recovery 2015-16R 2100 Jul. Month (Taka in crore) 2016-17P 2400 Mar. b. Non-farm rural credit 2016-17 2700 Feb. 1242.04 4046.23 (+0.31) Feb. 1261.23 4124.08 (+16.26) Jan. 1475.02 4681.12 (+15.69) Jan. 1644.19 4761.13 (+15.45) Dec. October Dec. 1228.38 Nov. 1083.93 1238.48 Nov. 933.15 September Oct. August 2015-16 Oct. 893.78 Sep. 945.31 July-October 3600 Sep. Disbursement Recovery July Agricultural credit disbursement R 2015-16 Aug. 2016-17 In crore taka Month (Taka in crore) P Aug. a. Agricultural credit Overdue and outstanding credit in agricultural secor (Taka in crore) 2016-17 End Month October P Overdue Outstanding 6293.27 (-7.22) 34816.53 (+9.08) 2015-16 Overdue as % of outstanding 18.08 R Overdue Outstanding 6783.27 (-11.76) 31917.81 (+7.01) Overdue as % of outstanding Source: Agricultural Credit Department. Note:- Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes over the corresponding period of the preceding year. P = Provisional, R= Revised. 10 21.25
13. 8 .a) Industrial term loans Yearly (Tk. in crore) Period Recovery Disbursement disbursement of total LSI MSI SSCI Total LSI MSI SSCI Total industrial term loans during July- FY 2013-14 29046.19 9585.93 3679.20 42311.32 28999.63 9423.48 3383.58 41806.69 September, 2016 increased by FY 2014-15 45468.67 9689.37 4625.66 59783.70 32801.39 9897.35 4842.07 47540.81 2.72 percent and stood at Taka FY2015-16 Quarterly The July-September 9492.55 2112.21 1094.92 12699.68 7905.36 2012.77 1154.23 11072.36 13044.95 crore as compared to October-December 13575.32 2237.30 2006.15 17818.78 8203.00 1949.37 1793.16 11945.52 Taka January-March 14263.71 2506.26 1494.63 18264.60 9021.12 2029.25 1386.38 12436.75 April-June 11921.17 2493.47 2341.00 16755.64 9087.54 2718.03 965.07 12770.65 8757.30 2393.42 1272.31 12423.03 End Period September, 2015 September, 2016 9929.23 1977.24 1138.48 13044.95 industrial term loans increased by 12.20 percent and stood at Taka 12423.03 LSI MSI SSCI Total LSI MSI SSCI Total 9912.70 4801.99 1061.89 15776.58 93889.70 21896.97 7697.09 123483.76 (+10.56) (+21.93) (+13.80) (+12.78) 13840.23 5779.51 1373.76 20993.50 (+12.23) (+22.31) (+15.82) (+14.21) #REF! 113120.59 25908.88 during other hand, the recovery of Outstanding Overdue crore July-September, 2015. On the FY2016-17 July-September 12699.68 8686.27 147715.75 #REF! Source: SME & Special Programmes Department. crore during July- September, 2016 against Taka 11072.36 crore during the same period of the previous fiscal year. Note:- Figures in brackets indicate overdue as % of outstanding. LSI=Large Scale Industries, MSI=Medium Scale Industries, SSCI= Small Scale & Cottage Industries. Outstanding amount of industrial term loans at the end of September, 2016 stood at Taka 147715.75 crore which is 19.62 percent higher than the outstanding amount of September, 2015. b) Outstanding position of SME loans The total SME loans by banks and non-bank financial institutions increased by Taka 22328.65 crore or 16.14 percent and stood at Taka 160659.39 crore at the end of September, 2016 as compared to Taka 138330.74 crore at the end of September, 2015. The increase of different category -wise institution of SME loans at the end of September, 2016 are 21.07 percent in state-owned banks, 14.65 percent in private banks, 6.02 percent in foreign banks, 13.23 percent in specialized banks and 27.51 percent in non-bank financial institutions as compared to that of September, 2015. SME loans as percentage of total loans stood at 23.53 percent at the end of September, 2016 as compared to 22.74 percent of September, 2015. (Tk. in crore) Banks/NBFIs Quarter Ending September, 2015 Private Banks Foreign Specialised Banks Banks Total Loans 112465.72 408056.18 23943.04 SME Loans 24518.29 105881.68 1911.97 (21.80) (25.95) (7.99) Non-Bank Fin. Ins. Total 21111.88 42613.19 608190.01 846.25 5172.55 138330.74 (4.01) (12.14) (22.74) 21377.47 44847.83 629463.30 974.84 (4.56) 5452.61 (12.16) 148792.06 (23.64) 21377.47 46806.86 645455.07 969.93 (4.54) 5680.29 (12.14) 152195.74 (23.58) 110629.20 428209.81 24398.99 December, 2015 SME Loans 29048.70 (26.26) 111428.54 (26.02) Total Loans 112456.56 440554.99 24259.19 March, 2016 SME Loans 28831.04 (25.64) 114851.15 (26.07) Total Loans 116836.68 465050.21 25881.09 22251.27 49309.20 June, 2016 SME Loans 29540.90 (25.28) 120890.72 (26.00) 1971.17 (7.62) 1699.58 (7.64) 6391.11 (12.96) 679328.45 160493.49 (23.63) Total Loans 119061.10 469024.57 25649.95 22251.27 46914.05 682900.94 September, 2016 SME Loans 29685.20 (24.93) 121393.48 (25.88) 2027.01 (7.90) 958.23 (4.31) 6595.47 (14.06) 160659.39 (23.53) 21.07 14.65 6.02 13.23 27.51 16.14 % changes of SME loans at the end of September, 2016 over September, 2015 1887.37 (7.74) 1863.33 (7.68) Source: SME & Special Programmes Department, Note:- Figures in brackets indicate SME loans as percentage of total loans. Institution-wise sharing of SME loans (September, 2016) Foreign Banks, 1.26% Specialised Banks, 0.60% The percentage share of SME loans from to total SME loan as of end September, State Owned Banks Total Loans The revised target for disbursement of SME loans during JanuaryDecember, 2016 is Taka 113503.43 crore. different categories of financial institutions Types of Loans Private Banks, 75.56% 2016 is shown in a pie chart. 11 Non-Bank Financial Institutions, 4.11% State Owned Banks, 18.48%
14. 9 . Industrial production Quantum index of medium and large-scale manufacturing industry (Base: 2005-06=100) Index Average Index Percentage change Jul-Aug Jul-Aug 2015-16 306.54 327.50 122.79 382.55 8.23% 7.12% Leather and related products 2016-17 Aug '16 over Aug '15 Jul-Aug '16 over Jul-Aug '15 256.01 280.42 18.65 9.53 397.03 323.76 352.65 21.23 8.92 139.45 394.74 118.67 385.03 133.61 380.43 13.57 3.19 12.59 -1.19 331.81 425.71 330.27 375.44 28.30 13.68 237.30 310.36 224.82 278.63 30.79 23.93 4.40% 118.13 164.20 122.78 150.99 39.00 22.98 Chemicals and chemical products Basic metals 3.67% 3.15% 85.30 176.60 91.26 194.15 80.91 203.78 91.06 179.94 6.99 9.94 12.55 -11.70 Tobacco products 2.92% 135.68 140.53 120.42 136.70 3.57 13.52 Fabricated metal products except machinery Others* 2.32% 8.44% 198.12 223.40 245.42 262.84 199.28 221.15 228.49 258.74 23.87 17.66 14.66 17.00 Major Industry Group Weight Aug-15 Aug-16 100.00% 258.35 Wearing apparel 34.84% Textile Food products 14.07% 10.84% Pharmaceuticals and medicinal chemical Non-metalic mineral products General Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, *Others means residual items. The general index of industrial production (medium & large scale manufacturing) stood higher at 280.42 during July-August 2016 and recorded an increase of 9.53 percent over that of July-August 2015. 340 320 Monthly Indices 306.54 300 280 258.35 260 240 Quantum index of small scale manufacturing industries (Base:1995-96=100) 465.86 435.95 415.77 431.21 420 Aug/16 Jul/16 Jun/16 May/16 Apr/16 Ma r/16 Feb/16 Ja n/16 Dec/15 Nov/15 Oct/15 Sep/15 industry during the first quarter (July-September, 2016) of FY17 increased by 0.38 percent and stood at 478.84 from the index of 477.04 during the fourth quarter (April-June, 380 2016) of FY16, also it increased by 9.84 percent 340 compared to the same quarter of FY16. 300 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Indices 460 477.04 478.84 The general index of small scale manufacturing 540 500 Aug/15 220 Jul/15 The indices those recorded increases during July-August 2016, compared to July-August 2015 are: non-metalic mineral products (23.93%), leather and related products (22.98%), fabricated metal products except machinery (14.66%), pharmaceuticals & medicinal chemical (13.68%), tobacco products (13.52%), textile (12.59%), chemicals and chemical products (12.55%), and wearing apparel (8.92%). On the other hand, the indices those recorded falling trends during July-August 2016, compared to July-August 2015 are basic metals (11.70%) and food products (1.19%). Quantum index of medium & large scale manufacturing industries (Base:2005-06=100) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 12
15. 10 . Exports (US$ in million) A. Annual exports 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 22928.22 24301.90 27027.36 30186.62 31208.94 34257.18 (+41.49) (+5.99) (+11.22) (+11.69) (+3.39) (+9.77) B. Monthly exports Month July August September October November December January February March April May June 2015-16 2014-15 2625.93 2758.41 2374.65 2371.50 2749.34 3204.07 3185.63 2854.22 2831.42 2682.05 3026.99 2982.74 2159.50 2552.86 1957.55 2417.43 2844.13 2885.15 2512.42 2592.97 2398.50 2841.13 3592.97 3064.56 34257.18 (+9.77) 31208.94 (+3.39) 2016-17 2015-16 July 2534.31 2625.93 August September October 3303.50 2241.01 2758.41 2374.65 2712.83 2371.50 November 2899.32 13690.97 2749.34 12879.83 (+6.30) (+6.71) July-June Month July-November Export target is USD 37000.00 million for FY 2016-17. Source : Export Promotion Bureau (EPB). P=Provisional; R=Revised. Merchandise export in November 2016 increased by USD 0.19 billion or 6.87 percent to USD 2.90 billion from USD 2.71 billion in October 2016, according to EPB data which is also 7.26 percent higher than the target of 2.70 billion for the said month. Total merchandise export during July-November 2016 increased by USD 0.81 billion or 6.30 percent to USD 13.69 billion compared to USD 12.88 billion during July-November 2015. Actual performance of merchandise export shipments during July-November 2016 was lower by 4.17 percent than the target of USD 14.29 billion. Export Growth (year-on-year) 30 2015-16 25 2016-17 2016-17 2015-16 3550 20 3300 (Million USD) 15 10 5 0 -5 3050 2800 2550 Latest available data on category-wise breakdown of exports are shown in the next page. 13 Jun. May Apr. Feb. Mar. Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sep. Jun. May Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Aug. Jul. Sep. 2050 -15 Aug. 2300 -10 Jul. Percentage Export performance: Value Trends 3800
16. C . Category-wise breakdown of exports Particulars (US$ In million ) July-November, 2016 July-November, 2015 Changes during July-November, 2016 over July-November, 2015 In absolute amount In percent Volume @ Value Volume @ Value Volume @ Value Volume @ Value 1. Raw Jute (In million Kg.) 2. Jute goods (excl.carpet) (In million Kg.) 3. Tea (In million Kg.) 4. Frozen food (In million Kg.) 5. Leather (In million Kg.) 6. Woven garments (In million Pcs.) 7. Knitwear (In million Pcs.) 8. Chemical products (In million Kg.) of which (fertilizer) 9. Agricultural products* (In million Kg.) --- 86.70 --- 73.61 --- +13.09 --- +17.78 --- 300.53 --- 284.99 --- +15.54 --- +5.45 --- 0.97 --- 0.80 --- +0.17 --- +21.25 --- 245.89 --- 229.45 --- +16.44 --- +7.16 --- 114.85 --- 109.85 --- +5.00 --- +4.55 --- 5498.61 --- 5226.03 --- +272.58 --- +5.22 --- 5632.74 --- 5236.73 --- +396.01 --- +7.56 --- 53.44 --- 49.40 --- +4.04 --- +8.18 --- 84.55 --- 69.48 --- +15.07 --- +21.69 10. Engin.& Electric goods --- 170.40 --- 234.34 --- -63.94 --- -27.29 11. Others** TOTAL ----- 1502.29 13690.97 ----- 1365.15 12879.83 ----- +137.14 +811.14 ----- +10.05 +6.30 Source : Export Promotion Bureau (EPB). Note:- @ Export volume is currently not avaiable, --- = Not available, * = Includes vegetables, fruits & tobacco, **Others = residual items. Category-wise breakdown of exports shows that, during July-November, 2016 exports of knitwear, woven garments, frozen food, jute goods (excluding carpet), agricultural products, raw jute, leather, chemical products, and tea experienced a positive growth compared to that of the same period of the previous year. On the other hand, only engineering & electric goods experienced a negative growth during July-November, 2016 compared to the same period of the previous year. Category-wise share of total exports (July-November, 2016) Jute goods (excl.carpet), 2.20% Frozen food, 1.80% Category-wise share of total exports (July-November, 2015) Others**, 14.70% Jute goods (excl.carpet), 2.21% Frozen food, 1.78% Knitwear, 41.14% Woven garments, 40.16% Knitwear, 40.66% 14 Others**, 14.77% Woven garments, 40.58%
17. 11 . Imports a) Custom based import, import LCs settlement and LCs opening (US$ in million) Month ………………… ………........FY Custom based import (c&f) Import LCs settlement Import LCs opening 2013-14 40616.40 (+8.92) 2012-13 37289.80 (+0.82) 2013-14 37188.84 (+14.93) 2012-13 32358.52 (-7.05) 2013-14 41818.56 (+16.29) 2012-13 35961.05 (-2.90) Month 2015-16R 2014-15 2015-16 2014-15 2015-16 2014-15 July 2856.80 2556.10 3437.71 2964.69 3011.64 3655.65 August 3415.70 3458.80 3502.55 3461.55 3631.73 3475.02 September 3197.20 3733.00 2985.45 3369.85 3135.37 3704.30 October 3866.90 3304.00 3268.85 3145.15 3232.57 3142.60 November 3677.90 3059.20 3407.74 3259.60 4468.22 3760.76 December 3919.90 3444.80 3701.52 3390.64 3585.21 3547.28 January 3577.20 3268.80 3351.55 3037.47 3387.16 3501.47 February 3342.50 3202.00 3200.16 2807.87 3125.37 3257.30 March 3632.40 3404.10 3365.75 3351.97 3988.71 4262.45 April 3527.20 3835.50 3154.28 3179.16 3546.88 3518.94 May 4241.80 3899.20 3285.88 3205.56 3599.03 3682.60 June July-June 3816.00 43071.50 (+5.82) 3538.20 40703.70 (+0.21) 3414.76 40076.20 (+4.22) 3281.73 38455.24 (+3.41) 4623.44 43335.33 (+0.62) 3560.39 43068.76 (+2.99) Month 2016-17P 2015-16R 2016-17P 2015-16 2016-17P 2015-16 July 2941.50 2856.80 2804.36 3437.71 3097.80 3011.64 August 3796.60 3415.70 4353.94 3502.55 4203.03 3631.73 September 3531.30 3197.20 4451.61 2985.45 3471.54 3135.37 October July-October 4124.70 14394.10 (+7.93) 3866.90 13336.60 (+2.18) 3530.65 15140.56 (+14.75) 3268.84 13194.56 (+1.96) 4119.23 14891.59 (+14.45) 3232.57 13011.31 (-6.91) Source: National Board of Revenue (NBR), Foreign Exchange Operations Department , NA=Not Available. Note:- 1. Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes over the corresponding period of the preceding year. R = Data has been revised upto September 2015 as per rivision by NBR. P = Provisional. R= Revised. Custom based import during July-October, 2016 stood significantly higher by USD 1.06 billion or 7.93 percent and stood at USD 14.39 billion against USD 13.34 billion during July-October, 2015. 2016-17 30 20 10 0 -10 15 May Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sep. Aug. -30 Jun. -20 Jul. Fresh opening of import LCs during July-October, 2016 increased by 14.45 percent and stood at USD 14.89 billion compared to USD 13.01 billion during July-October 2015. 2015-16 40 Percentage Settlement of import LCs during July-October, 2016 increased by 14.75 percent and stood at USD 15.14 billion against USD 13.19 billion during July-October, 2015. Growth of import (year-on-year)
18. b ) Sector-wise fresh opening, settlement and outstanding of import LCs Latest available sector-wise comparative statistics of fresh opening, settlement and outstanding of import LCs during July-October, 2016 and July-October, 2015 are shown below: (US$ in million) July-October, 2016 Sectors / Commodities P Percentage changes during July-October, 2016 July-October, 2015 over July-October, 2015 Fresh LCs Settlement Outstanding Fresh LCs Settlement Outstanding opening of LCs opening of LCs LCs at the LCs at the end period end period Fresh LCs opening Settlement of LCs Outstanding LCs at the end period A. Consumer goods 1938.70 1489.63 1973.10 1550.77 1499.41 1700.90 +25.02 -0.65 B. Intermediate goods 1232.17 1042.97 1823.68 1018.13 1013.75 1489.07 +21.02 2.88 22.47 C. Industrial raw materials 5238.05 5324.39 5617.08 5188.43 4923.35 7141.47 +0.96 8.15 -21.35 D. Capital machinery 1518.87 2095.62 5248.03 1201.30 1145.76 5190.54 +26.43 82.90 1.11 E. Machinery for misc. inds. 1657.45 1628.93 1771.57 1348.31 1546.44 2018.29 +22.93 5.33 -12.22 16.00 F. Petroleum & petro.prodts. 845.91 705.49 660.30 768.85 854.41 946.99 +10.02 -17.43 -30.27 G. Others 2460.45 2853.54 3117.10 1935.52 2211.44 3369.66 +27.12 29.04 -7.50 Total 14891.59 15140.56 20210.86 13011.31 13194.56 21856.92 +14.45 14.75 -7.53 2211.53 3147.00 +7.25 11.68 -27.95 of which back to back 2600.96 2469.81 2267.44 2425.04 Source: Foreign Exchange Operations Department, Bangladesh Bank. P=Provisional. The developments of each sectoral share in total LCs opening during July-October, 2016 and July-October, 2015 are showing in the following pie charts. Sectoral sharing in LC Opening (July-October, 2015) Consumer Sectoral sharing in LC Opening (July-October, 2016) Consumer Petroleum & petro.products , 5.68% Others , 16.52% goods, 13.02% Petroleum & petro.products , 5.91% Intermediate goods, 8.27% Intermediate goods, 7.82% Machinery for misc. industry, 10.36% Machinery for misc. industry, 11.13% Industrial raw materials, 35.17% Capital machinery, 10.20% goods, 11.92% Others , 14.88% Capital machinery, 9.23% Industrial raw materials, 39.88% Sector-wise detailed statistics of fresh opening, settlement and outstanding of import LCs during July-October, 2016 and July-October, 2015 are given as Appendix. C) Projected data on opening of import LCs and probable liabilities against back to back LCs of authorised dealer banks (In million USD) Month Opening of import LCs Probable liabilities of banks against back to back LCs December'16 3948.88 1321.02 January'17 3656.50 1327.23 February'17 3609.74 1335.02 December-February, 2016-17 11215.12 3983.27 Source: All authorized dealer banks, compiled by Monetary Policy Department (MPD), Bangladesh Bank. Data on projection of opening of import LCs and probable liabilities of banks against back to back LCs sent by the authorised dealer banks are USD 11.22 billion and USD 3.98 billion respectively during December-February, 2016-17. 16
19. 12 . Workers’ remittances Annual and monthly trends of remittances (US$ in million) July-June 14931.16 15316.91 (-2.52) (+7.65) Monthly Remittances P R Month 2016-17 July 1005.51 1389.56 August 1183.61 1195.02 September 1056.64 1349.06 October 1010.99 1098.45 November 951.37 1142.48 July-November 5208.12 (-15.65) 6174.57 (-0.60) 2015-16 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 Jun. 1492.47 1174.37 1344.27 1018.03 1182.95 1275.06 1243.25 1189.60 1338.31 1297.49 1321.77 1439.34 May 1389.56 1195.02 1349.06 1098.45 1142.48 1312.62 1150.63 1136.27 1285.58 1191.15 1214.46 1465.88 1400 Apr. July August September October November December January February March April May June 2016-17 Mar. 2014-15 Feb 2015-16 Month 2015-16 1500 Jan. (+7.65) Dec. 15316.91 (-1.61) Nov. 14228.32 (+12.60) Oct. 14461.14 Monthly trends of workers' remittances 1600 Sep. 2014-15 Annual Remittances Aug. 2013-14 Jul. 2012-13 (Million USD) ` Receipt of workers’ remittances in November 2016 decreased by 5.90 percent and stood at USD 0.95 billion as compared to October 2016. It also decreased by 16.73 percent as compared to the same month of the previous year. Total receipts of workers’ remittance decreased by 15.65 percent during JulyNovember, 2016 and stood at USD 5.21 billion as compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year. Source : Statistics Department, Bangladesh Bank. Note:- Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes over the same period of the previous year. P=Provisional; R = Revised. 13. Foreign exchange holdings by Bangladesh Bank and commercial banks (a) Gross foreign exchange reserves of Bangladesh Bank(BB) : The gross foreign exchange reserves of BB stood at USD 31.37 billion (with ACU liability USD 0.49 billion) as of end November 2016 which were able to support imports for 8.4 months, down from USD 31.90 billion (with ACU liability USD 0.79 billion) with import cover for 8.5 months as on end October 2016. (b) Gross foreign exchange balances held by Commercial Banks(CBs): The gross foreign exchange balances held by commercial banks stood at USD 2.95 billion as of end November 2016 which was higher than that of USD 2.92 billion of end October 2016. That was also higher than the balance of USD 2.46 billion at the end November 2015. (US$ in million) 23031.52 March 28265.93 23052.97 29106.26 24071.70 28802.90 23707.68 30168.22 25025.25 2016-17 2015-16 July 30039.29 25464.29 August September 31165.06 31385.87 26175.34 26379.04 October November 31895.31 31370.88 27058.39 26407.63 7.6 7.3 7.0 FX reserve held by CBs 2900 2800 2700 2600 2500 2400 2300 2200 Source : Accounts & Budgeting Department, Bangladesh Bank. 17 Month of Imports February 28058.56 7.9 Nov.16 22042.30 Oct.16 27138.91 8.5 Sep.16 January 8.8 8.2 Jul. 16 22309.80 Aug.16 2014-15 27493.31 Jun. 16 2015-16 Apr. 16 Month / Year December May. 16 (+63.40) Mar. 16 (+40.44) Jan. 16 (+47.77) Gross FX reserves Reserve covers months of import Feb. 16 25025.25 Dec. 15 15315.23 35000 33000 31000 29000 27000 25000 23000 21000 19000 17000 Nov. 15 15315.23 B. Outstanding April stock at the end May of the month June Month / Year FX reserves held by BB 2014-15 Oct. 15 2013-14 FX Reserve (million USD) 2012-13 A. Outstanding stock at the end of the year
20. 14 . Foreign aid (US$ in million) Net Food Project Total Payment Net Food Project Total Payment Aid Aid Aid (Principal) Foreign Aid Aid Aid (Principal) Foreign Aid Aid FY2015-16 Month FY2014-15 July 0.00 120.15 120.15 96.50 23.65 0.00 192.19 192.19 195.73 -3.54 August 0.00 132.02 132.02 97.50 34.52 0.00 192.07 192.07 41.38 150.69 September 6.46 223.76 230.22 44.03 186.19 9.64 216.03 225.67 85.84 139.83 October 0.00 258.48 258.48 69.19 189.29 0.00 155.11 155.11 68.62 86.49 November 0.00 192.17 192.17 75.79 116.38 0.00 230.72 230.72 79.62 151.10 December 6.15 599.50 605.65 69.90 535.75 10.08 648.81 658.89 67.11 591.79 January 0.00 216.23 216.23 82.12 134.11 0.00 240.23 240.23 73.08 167.14 February 0.00 242.96 242.96 40.50 202.46 0.00 94.39 94.39 42.45 51.93 March 12.56 556.94 569.50 77.26 492.24 5.20 327.97 333.17 78.87 254.30 April 0.00 120.71 120.71 80.59 40.12 0.00 160.38 160.38 67.09 93.29 May 0.00 248.82 248.82 69.30 179.52 0.00 243.90 243.90 66.83 177.07 June 6.74 506.32 513.06 64.53 448.53 12.60 362.94 375.54 38.32 337.22 31.91 3418.06 3449.97 867.20 2582.77 37.52 3064.74 3102.26 904.94 2197.32 (-14.95) (+11.53) (+11.21) (-4.17) (+17.54) (+22.49) (+6.09) (+6.27) (-16.92) (+20.06) July-June Month FY2016-17 P FY2015-16 July 0.00 127.69 127.69 89.60 38.09 0.00 120.15 120.15 96.50 23.65 August 0.00 158.29 158.29 45.18 113.11 0.00 132.02 132.02 97.50 34.52 September 8.44 210.03 218.47 85.41 133.06 6.46 223.76 230.22 44.03 186.19 October 0.00 240.13 240.13 79.00 161.13 0.00 258.48 258.48 69.19 189.29 July-October 8.44 736.13 744.57 299.19 445.38 6.46 734.41 740.87 307.22 433.65 (+30.65) (+0.23) (+0.50) (-2.61) (+2.71) (-32.99) (-2.78) (-3.16) (-21.54) (+16.11) Source : Bangladesh Bank & Ministry of Finance, P=Provisional; R = Revised Foreign Aid foreign aid disbursements during 810 July-October, 2016 increased marginally by USD 710 0.004 billion or 0.50 percent and stood at USD 610 (Million USD) Total 0.74 billion. After principle repayment of USD 0.30 billion, 510 744.57 Total Aid Net Aid 740.87 445.38 433.65 410 310 210 the net receipt of foreign aid stood at USD 0.45 110 billion during July-October, 2016 as compared to 10 July-October, 2016 USD 0.43 billion of the same period of the previous year. 18 July-October, 2015
21. 15 . Exchange rate movements 2/: Month FY 2014-15 (Taka/USD) FY 2015-16 (Taka/USD) FY 2014-15 (Rupee/USD) FY 2015-16 (Rupee/USD) Month Avg. Month End Month Avg. Month End Month End Month End November 77.5149 77.7000 78.5274 78.9364 61.9736 66.8148 December 77.8563 77.9500 78.7794 78.5000 63.7498 66.3260 January 77.8726 77.8000 78.5008 78.5000 61.4998 67.8763 February 77.8000 77.8000 78.5517 78.4500 61.9395 68.6160 March 77.8000 77.8000 78.4130 78.4000 62.5908 66.3329 April 77.8000 77.8000 78.4000 78.4000 63.5780 66.5176 May 77.8000 77.8000 78.4000 78.4000 63.7615 67.2030 June 77.8000 77.8000 78.4000 78.4000 Month FY 2015-16 (Taka/USD) FY 2016-17 (Taka/USD) 63.7549 67.6166 FY 2015-16 (Rupee/USD) FY 2016-17 (Rupee/USD) Month Avg. Month End Month Avg. Month End Month End Month End July 77.8007 77.8000 78.4000 78.4000 64.0061 67.0340 August 77.8000 77.8000 78.4000 78.4000 66.3062 66.9813 September October 77.8008 77.8215 77.8000 77.9978 78.4000 78.4010 78.4000 78.4161 65.7418 65.1515 66.7875 66.8566 November 78.5274 78.9364 78.5417 78.7233 66.8148 68.5260 Source : Statistics Department & MPD. Note:- 2/ Exchange rate represents the mid-value of buying and selling rates. Bangladesh Taka has depreciated by 0.41 percent against US dollar at the end of November 2016 from its level of end June 2016. Indian Rupee (INR) depreciated by 1.33 percent against US dollar as of end November 2016 compared to its level of end June 2016. Graphical presenatation of exchange rate of Bangladesh Taka (BDT) BDT/ USD and Indian Rupee (INR) against the US Dollar (USD) and BDT against the INR are shown below: 78.90 78.85 78.80 78.75 78.70 78.65 78.60 78.55 78.50 78.45 78.40 78.35 78.30 BDT against USD 69.00 INR /USD 68.50 INR against USD 68.00 67.50 67.00 66.50 66.00 1.19 BDT against INR 1.17 1.16 1.15 1.14 01-06-16 06-06-16 09-06-16 14-06-16 16-06-16 21-06-16 26-06-16 29-06-16 11-07-16 14-07-16 18-07-16 21-07-16 26-07-16 31-07-16 03-08-16 08-08-16 11-08-16 17-08-16 22-08-16 28-08-16 31-08-16 05-09-16 08-09-16 19-09-16 22-09-16 26-09-16 29-09-16 04-10-16 09-10-16 16-10-16 19-10-16 24-10-16 27-10-16 01-11-16 06-11-16 09-11-16 14-11-16 17-11-16 22-11-16 27-11-16 30-11-16 05-12-16 08-12-16 14-12-16 TK. /INR 1.18 19
22. 16 . Balance of payments (BOP) (US$ in million) Particulars July-October, 2016 P July-October, 2015 -2777 -2468 10541 9872 13318 12340 -1036 1148 -865 1134 2184 1999 -651 -590 21 672 122 4448 14 4434 4188 26 616 135 5164 10 5154 4960 Current account balance -16 1241 Capital account 78 137 78 137 1549 1138 577 529 91 91 881 -17 73 626 653 585 299 289 -226 -91 554 225 144 434 Trade balance Exports f.o.b(including EPZ) Imports f.o.b(including EPZ) Services Credit Debit Primary income Credit Debit Of which:Official interest payment Secondary income Official transfers Private transfers of which : Workers' remittances ( current a/c. portion) Capital transfers Financial account i) Foreign direct investment(net) ii) Portfolio investment (net) of which : Workers' remittances ( financial a/c. portion) iii) Other investment(net) Medium and long-term (MLT) loans MLT amortization payments Other long-term loans (net) Other short-term loans (net) Trade credit (net) DMBs & NBDCs(net) Assets Liabilities -26 -157 -202 -228 -55 -212 Errors and omissions 452 -578 Overall balance 2063 1938 Reserve assets -2063 -1938 -2063 -1938 1880 2161 -183 223 Bangladesh Bank(net) Assets Liabilities R Source : Statistics Department, Bangladesh Bank. Note:- Both of exports and imports are compiled on the basis of customs data. P=Provisional; R = Revised. Trade balance recorded a deficit of USD 2.78 billion during July-October, 2016 as compared to the deficit of USD 2.47 billion during July-October, 2015. Current account balance continued with deficit during July-October 2016. Despite the current account deficit, financial account surplus of USD 1.55 billion contributed to a surplus of USD 2.06 billion in overall balances during July-October, 2016. The deficit in current account of July-October, 2016 was mainly due to the rise in import payables along with a primary income shortfall and a deficit in the income from services. 20
23. 17 . Public finance a) Government tax revenue collections (Taka in crore) Annual tax revenue collections 2009-2010 NBR Tax Revenue Non-NBR Tax Revenue Total Tax Revenue 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 62042.16 79403.11 95058.99 103332.00 120819.86 135700.70 (61000.00) (75600.00) (92370.00) (112259.00) (125000.00) (135028.00) 2848.00 3229.36 3631.58 4120.00 4612.64 4821.57 (2956.00) (3452.00) (3915.00) (4565.00) (5178.00) (5648.00) 64890.16 82632.47 98690.57 107452.00 125432.50 140522.27 (63956.00) (79052.00) (96285.00) (116824.00) (130178.00) (140676.00) Note:- Figures in brackets indicate the target of revenue collection. Customs duties VAT 1 2 (Taka in crore) NBR Tax Revenue Income others* Tax 3 4 Non-NBR Tax Total 5=(1+..+4) Revenue 6 Total Tax Revenue Collections Customs duties VAT 7=(5+6) 1 2 NBR Tax Revenue Income others* Tax 3 4 1122.01 3528.60 2459.71 1617.74 August 1261.38 3780.11 2634.03 September 1382.36 4835.24 4432.91 October 1309.26 4394.23 November 1569.71 December 1593.82 January February Total 5=(1+..+4) Revenue 6 7941.58 345.18 Total Tax Revenue Collections 7=(5+6) 2014-15 2015-16 July Non-NBR Tax 8728.06 376.09 9104.15 1030.75 3594.43 1995.34 1321.06 1952.19 9627.71 610.69 10238.40 1261.00 3576.30 2124.39 1741.88 8703.57 372.20 9075.77 2109.32 12759.83 408.38 13168.21 1311.14 3923.21 3807.66 2024.90 11066.91 380.55 11447.46 3307.76 2223.82 11235.07 406.43 11641.50 1034.50 3805.61 3190.48 1697.08 9727.67 309.07 10036.74 4985.84 3138.55 2820.29 12514.39 462.98 12977.37 1154.11 3870.47 2682.63 1756.95 9464.16 380.04 9844.20 4488.25 4610.99 2531.17 13224.23 486.57 13710.80 1224.09 4172.53 3808.03 1873.91 11078.56 413.82 11492.38 1490.70 4328.79 3447.14 2618.11 11884.74 424.56 12309.30 1184.19 4053.66 2848.94 2320.04 10406.83 398.80 10805.63 1483.99 4174.79 3247.01 2485.55 11391.34 425.24 11816.58 1154.04 3845.08 3086.94 2000.58 10086.64 358.88 10445.52 March 1660.76 4680.54 5217.03 2514.77 14073.10 465.53 14538.63 1247.53 4518.21 4827.60 1890.38 12483.72 413.10 12896.82 April 1447.16 4516.18 5348.65 2593.77 13905.76 478.24 14384.00 1418.20 4851.94 3777.81 2122.03 12169.98 427.62 12597.60 May 1833.02 5715.28 4093.18 2711.74 14353.22 518.83 14872.05 1646.02 5309.35 4038.35 2318.22 13311.94 454.84 13766.78 June 1862.41 6018.83 11389.00 2551.03 21821.27 578.92 22400.19 1684.28 4459.81 11289.23 1825.82 19259.14 567.47 19826.61 18016.58 55446.68 53325.96 28729.50 155518.72 (+14.60) 5642.46 (+17.03) 161161.18 (+14.69) 15349.85 49980.60 47477.40 22892.85 135700.70 (+12.32) 4821.57 (+4.53) 140522.27 (+12.03) July 1242.47 3862.23 2683.49 1805.95 9594.14 417.46 10011.60 1122.01 3528.60 2459.71 1617.74 8728.06 376.09 9104.15 August 1737.32 5074.41 2861.17 2754.57 12427.47 523.38 12950.85 1261.38 3780.11 2634.03 1952.19 9627.71 610.69 10238.40 September 1443.81 4999.08 5146.28 2824.75 14413.92 373.37 14787.29 1382.36 4835.24 5146.28 1395.95 12759.83 408.38 13168.21 October 1567.22 5264.70 3710.38 2896.85 13439.15 481.58 13920.73 1309.26 4394.23 3307.76 2223.82 11235.07 406.43 11641.50 July-October 5990.82 19200.42 14401.32 10282.12 49874.68 1795.79 51670.47 5075.01 16538.18 13547.78 7189.70 42350.67 1801.60 44152.27 (+17.77) (-0.32) (+17.03) (+13.12) (+28.05) (+13.66) July-June 2016-17 P 8286.76 2015-16 R Source: National Board of Revenue and Office of the Controller General of Accounts. P=Provisional, R=Revised; *=include supplementary duties & travel tax. --- = Not Available. Note:- Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes over the corresponding period of the preceding year. Non-NBR tax revenue includes narcotics & liquor duty, taxes on vehicles, land revenue and stamp duty(non judicial). Growth of total tax revenue collection (year-on-year) Growth of NBR tax revenue 64 NBR 56 Non-NBR 33 Total 40 2015-16 25 32 Percentage 24 16 8 21 17 Jun. May Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Jul. Oct 16 Sep 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Jun 16 May 16 Apr.16 Mar.16 Feb.16 Jan.16 Dec.15 Nov.15 5 Oct.15 9 Sep.15 -8 -16 Sep. 13 0 Aug. Percentage 2016-17 29 48 Total tax revenue collection (NBR & non-NBR) during July-October 2016 stood at Taka 51670.47 crore which was higher by Taka 7518.21 crore or 17.03 percent against the collection of Taka 44152.27 crore during July-October 2015. NBR tax revenue collection stood at Taka 49874.68 crore which was higher by Taka 6137.61 crore or 14.03 percent as compared to the target set by NBR of Taka 43737.07 crore during July-October, 2016. However, this collection was 17.77 percent higher as compared to that of the same period of the previous year. Target for NBR tax revenue collection is Taka 2,03,152.00 crore for FY17 21
24. b ) Sale and repayment of NSD certificates (Taka in crore) FY Sale Repayment (Principal) Net sale Outstanding at the end of the year (1) (2) (3) 4=(2-3) (5) 2011-12 18955.35 18476.33 479.02 63917.34 23326.77 22553.93 772.84 64690.18 24309.59 12602.29 11707.30 76397.48 42659.79 13927.13 28732.66 105130.14 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 (Taka in crore) Repayment (Principal) Net sale Outstanding at the end period Sale Repayment (Principal) Months Sale July 3236.40 1260.12 1976.28 107106.42 2727.43 869.74 1857.69 78255.17 August 4524.42 1873.51 2650.91 109757.33 3544.42 1073.62 2470.80 80725.97 September 3436.03 1382.23 2053.80 111811.13 3583.70 1091.18 2492.52 83218.49 October 4061.46 1708.75 2352.71 114163.84 3331.37 1074.76 2256.61 85475.10 November 4031.68 1739.52 2292.16 116456.00 3234.86 1070.47 2164.40 87639.50 December 3734.30 1754.57 1979.73 118435.73 2949.22 1055.72 1893.50 89533.00 January 5069.06 1771.68 3297.38 121733.11 3574.17 970.73 2603.44 92136.44 February 4973.90 1686.33 3287.57 125020.69 3588.31 1044.11 2544.20 94680.64 March 5121.42 1823.71 3297.71 128318.40 4330.71 1429.77 2900.94 97581.58 April 4919.52 1620.06 3299.46 131617.86 4297.36 1352.95 2944.41 100525.99 May 5294.97 1689.91 3605.06 135222.91 3907.07 1473.12 2433.95 102959.94 June 5309.29 1713.47 3595.83 138818.74 3591.17 1420.97 2170.20 105130.14 53712.45 20023.85 33688.60 138818.74 42659.79 13927.13 28732.66 105130.14 (+25.91) (+43.78) (+32.04) (+75.49) (+10.51) 2015-16 July-June Net sale Outstanding at the end period 2014-15 2016-17 (+37.61) 2015-16 July 4932.05 1433.68 3498.37 142317.11 3236.40 1260.12 1976.28 107106.42 August 6327.61 2030.40 4297.21 146614.32 4524.42 1873.51 2650.91 109757.33 September 5390.50 1535.99 3854.50 150468.82 3436.03 1382.23 2053.80 111811.13 October 6104.91 1838.31 4266.61 154735.43 4061.46 1708.75 2352.71 114163.84 July-October 22755.07 6838.38 15916.69 154735.43 15258.31 6224.61 9033.70 114163.84 (+49.13) (+9.86) (+76.19) (+35.54) (-75.93) (-92.75) (-87.27) (+33.56) Target for net sale of NSD is Taka 19,610.00 crore for FY 2016-17. 22 Monthly net sale of NSD certificates Jun. May Apr. 2015-16 Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sep. 2016-17 Aug. The outstanding borrowing of the government through NSD certificates as of end October 2016 stood at Taka 154735.43 crore which was 35.54 percent higher than that of the previous year. 5100 4750 4400 4050 3700 3350 3000 2650 2300 1950 1600 Jul. The sale of National Savings Certificates during July-October, 2016 stood at Taka 22755.07 crore which was 49.13 percent higher than the amount of sale during July-October, 2015. The net borrowing of the government through NSD certificates during July-October, 2016 was Taka 15916.69 crore against Taka 9033.70 crore of JulyOctober, 2015. (Taka in crore) Source:- National Savings Directorate. Note:- Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes over the corresponding period of the preceding year.
25. c ) Budget financing (Taka in crore) Net Net borrowing of non-bank the Govt. borrowing from the of the Govt. banking from the Year system 1/ 1 Net Total domestic financing foreign financing 3/ Total financing 5 6=(4+5) Total financing as % Outstanding of GDP@ at Domestic debt current market (end period) price public 2/ 2 3 4=(2+3) Outstanding domestic debt as % of GDP@ at current market price 7 8 9 2009-2010 -4376.00 12256.14 7880.14 10218.86 18099.00 2.27 116823.84 14.65 2010-2011 19175.90 3012.93 22397.03 7470.44 29867.47 3.26 139220.87 15.20 2011-2012 18784.20 2241.10 21025.30 9714.35 30739.65 2.91 160423.25 15.20 2012-2013 17873.00 7724.86 25597.86 15080.19 40678.05 3.39 181183.96 15.11 2013-2014 6627.80 15351.72 21979.52 14224.04 36203.56 2.69 203163.48 15.12 2014-2015 R -7370.70 34723.57 27352.87 17067.58 44420.45 2.93 230516.35 15.23 2015-2016 P 4326.60 34166.55 38493.15 20213.70 58706.85 3.39 269009.50 15.55 July-October, 2015 R 1387.10 9017.25 10404.35 3374.73 13779.08 0.80 240920.70 13.93 July-October, 2016 P -4391.90 16597.49 12205.59 3491.81 15697.40 0.80 281215.09 14.34 Source: Bangladesh Bank & Ministry of Finance. P=Provisional ; R=Revised, 1/: Excludes interest, 2/: Excludes saving certificates held by the banks and includes treasury bills & bonds held by the non-bank financial institutions through secondary auctions, T.bills & bonds have been taken at face value. 3/: Total aid disbursement less amortization payment, @: nominal GDP (base 2005-06=100) has been used. Government’s budget financing from domestic sources stood higher at Taka 122.06 billion during July-October, 2016 as compared to that of Taka 104.04 billion of July-October, 2015. Net foreign financing stood at Taka 34.91 billion in the period under review. Therefore, the total budget financing of the government during July-October, 2016 stood higher at Taka 156.97 billion against Taka 137.79 billion during July-October, 2015. However, Govt. borrowing from the banking system shortfall from govt.’s repayment and as such net borrowing stood negative at Taka 43.92 billion during July-October, 2016 as compared to that of July-October, 2015. While, government borrowing from the non-banking sources stood markedly higher at Taka 165.97 billion during July-October, 2016 as compared to that of July-October, 2015. The total budget financing during July-October, 2016 stood at 0.80 percent of projected GDP against 4.70 percent (overall deficit, including grants) as envisaged in the national budget for FY17. 18. Food situations (In lakh metric ton) Actual Net Food grain Imports Year Production Domestic Production Domestic Govt. & Target (Gross) Production* food aid FY2010-11 360.65 FY2011-12 357.25 345.13 348.20 310.62 313.38 FY2012-13 FY2013-14 354.66 358.81 350.88 356.56 FY2014-15 360.50 364.24 FY2015-16 FY2016-17 R T 365.17 Public Public Foodgrain Domestic Distribution Stock Public Private Total 22.04 35.00 4.62 22.91 8.87 10.50 12.40 57.04 22.90 14.26 20.95 12.48 315.79 320.90 4.72 8.56 14.18 21.37 18.90 29.93 14.06 14.34 20.87 22.20 14.97 11.53 360.58 324.52 3.34 49.40 52.74 16.76 18.38 12.86 358.80 322.92 3.31 42.06 45.37 12.32 20.64 8.56 5.00 40.00 45.00 17.00 27.80 12.96 R Particulars 1. Imports (Rice & Wheat) 2. Procurement (Rice & Wheat)B 3. Distribution (Rice & Wheat) 4. Food Stock Procurement July-October, 2016 P (End June) July-October, 2015 19.82 10.21 7.03 10.18 13.65 10.70 3.99 16.50 Source : Bangladesh Food Situation Report, FPMU, Ministry of Food & Disaster Management,Govt. of the Peoples Republic of Bangladesh. Note : T = Target, P = Provisional, R = Revised, B = Boro. ** Only for Aus and Aman *= After 10% deduction for FY 11 onwards for seed, feed, waste etc. Imports for rice and wheat were higher at 19.82 lakh metric tons during July-October 2016 than 13.65 lakh metric tons during July-October 2015. Imports and procurement combined during July-October 2016 was also higher than that of July-October 2015. However, distribution of rice and wheat during July-October 2016 was of 7.03 lakh metric tons, which was 3.99 lakh metric tons during July-October 2015. Outstanding food stock, on the other hand, was lower during July-October 2016 than that of July-October 2015. 23
26. APPENDIX Break-up of fresh opening , settlement and outstanding of import LCs (US$ in million ) Changes during July-October, 2016 July-October, 2015 July-October, 2016 over July-October, 2015 Fresh LCs Settlement Outstanding Fresh LCs Settlement Outstanding Fresh LCs Settlement Outstanding opening of LCs LCs at the end opening of LCs opening of LCs LCs at the LCs at the period end period end period P Sectors / Commodities A. Consumer goods 1938.70 1489.63 1973.10 1550.77 1499.41 1700.90 387.93 -9.78 272.20 Rice and wheat 545.06 390.05 411.33 443.98 440.24 350.48 101.09 -50.19 60.85 Sugar and salt 238.23 199.20 426.56 187.18 233.75 413.37 51.05 -34.55 13.18 Milk food 88.62 59.76 94.86 63.73 73.76 90.13 24.89 -14.00 4.72 Edible oil (refined) 281.15 258.97 340.55 258.20 240.74 310.63 22.95 18.23 29.93 All kinds of fruits 96.29 61.13 49.76 66.95 51.83 32.67 29.34 9.29 17.09 Pulses 194.38 107.62 208.35 116.76 60.15 177.98 77.63 47.46 30.37 Onion 69.82 65.42 32.62 102.84 94.31 34.01 -33.02 -28.89 -1.38 Spices 55.36 52.56 28.56 36.61 44.76 19.32 18.75 7.80 9.24 Second hand clothings 0.15 0.75 44.06 0.28 2.87 1.77 -0.12 -2.12 42.29 Drugs and medicines(finished) 27.84 22.97 18.91 22.29 19.53 18.72 5.54 3.44 0.18 Others 341.78 271.20 317.54 251.96 237.45 251.82 89.82 33.75 65.71 1232.17 1042.97 1823.68 1018.13 1013.75 1489.07 214.04 29.22 334.61 Coal 57.50 46.14 60.77 78.43 79.08 94.50 -20.93 -32.94 -33.73 Cement 5.25 5.83 9.77 4.41 1.63 8.81 0.84 4.20 0.95 Clinker & limestone 172.38 185.60 193.98 152.18 184.95 174.01 20.20 0.65 19.97 B. P. sheet 98.99 78.73 196.95 90.24 106.17 184.40 8.75 -27.44 12.55 Tin plate 3.76 1.79 5.72 5.39 6.95 3.06 -1.64 -5.16 2.66 Scrap Vessels 206.96 226.20 383.50 136.17 160.46 359.36 70.79 65.75 24.14 Iron and steel scrap 230.16 180.40 367.73 202.34 149.86 238.28 27.82 30.54 129.46 Non-ferrous metal 81.52 69.83 111.16 76.17 67.80 83.44 5.35 2.04 27.72 Paper and paper board 123.79 96.72 145.05 113.53 104.55 140.70 10.27 -7.83 4.35 Others 251.87 151.72 349.05 159.27 152.30 202.50 92.60 -0.58 146.55 5238.05 5324.39 5617.08 5188.43 4923.35 7141.47 49.61 401.03 -1524.39 Edible oil (Crude) & oil seeds 287.11 267.09 616.01 519.46 367.62 706.45 -232.35 -100.53 -90.44 Textile fabrics (B/B & others) 2379.83 2211.85 2038.06 2248.31 2029.83 2804.09 131.52 182.03 -766.03 Pharmaceutical raw materials 206.99 178.21 134.78 158.02 174.04 113.85 48.97 4.17 20.93 Raw cotton 564.90 808.92 780.03 550.11 636.73 935.50 14.79 172.19 -155.47 Cotton yarn 381.86 413.34 400.40 345.04 334.60 494.47 36.81 78.74 -94.07 1.46 1.46 2.99 2.93 2.58 1.15 -1.47 -1.12 1.85 Synthetic fibre & yarn 226.03 228.33 230.90 212.45 217.62 294.08 13.58 10.71 -63.18 Chemicals & chem. products 1189.87 1215.17 1413.91 1152.10 1160.34 1791.88 37.76 54.83 -377.97 B. Intermediate goods C. Industrial raw materials Copra (continued on page-25) 24
27. APPENDIX Break-up of fresh opening , settlement and outstanding of import LCs (US$ in million ) Changes during July-October, 2016 July-October, 2015 July-October, 2016 over July-October, 2015 Fresh LCs Settlement Outstanding Fresh LCs Settlement Outstanding Fresh LCs Settlement Outstanding LCs at the LCs at the LCs at the opening of LCs opening of LCs opening of LCs end period end period end period P Sectors / Commodities D. Capital machinery 1518.87 2095.62 5248.03 1201.30 1145.76 5190.54 +317.56 +949.86 +57.48 Textile machinery 188.42 214.34 593.55 184.10 130.43 502.73 +4.32 +83.91 +90.82 Leather / tannery 5.43 8.36 31.12 8.28 2.06 9.97 -2.86 +6.30 +21.14 Jute industry 0.54 3.96 3.56 0.72 2.49 5.82 -0.18 +1.47 -2.26 Garment industry 242.33 247.20 589.05 204.55 158.53 575.54 +37.78 +88.67 +13.51 Pharmaceutical industry 61.99 38.18 90.06 33.55 22.91 55.45 +28.44 +15.27 +34.60 Packing industry 2.92 5.93 11.80 5.91 4.06 7.49 -2.99 +1.87 +4.31 1017.24 1577.65 3928.89 764.20 825.29 4033.54 +253.04 +752.36 -104.64 1657.45 1628.93 1771.57 1348.31 1546.44 2018.29 +309.14 +82.49 -246.72 261.32 249.15 306.09 239.07 255.81 420.46 +22.26 -6.65 -114.37 3.66 8.58 45.33 5.09 6.87 64.74 -1.43 +1.71 -19.40 Computer & its accessories 122.04 128.77 98.53 116.57 117.38 103.23 +5.47 +11.39 -4.70 Motor vehicle & motorcycle parts 42.84 28.17 35.10 45.44 45.47 30.67 -2.61 -17.30 +4.42 Bicycle parts 22.92 16.89 23.54 19.10 14.74 17.78 +3.82 +2.14 +5.75 Other iron and steel products 177.11 184.12 192.14 101.42 128.71 225.32 +75.70 +55.41 -33.17 Motor vehicles 350.77 299.41 216.42 281.30 281.00 166.82 +69.47 +18.41 +49.60 Other electronics components 75.44 49.06 94.12 53.45 45.24 89.89 +21.98 +3.82 +4.23 Tractors & power tiller 28.28 25.67 20.94 35.94 23.58 30.88 -7.66 +2.09 -9.93 Others 573.07 639.10 739.37 450.92 627.63 868.51 +122.15 +11.48 -129.14 845.91 705.49 660.30 768.85 854.41 946.99 +77.06 -148.91 -286.69 Crude 146.78 70.00 176.22 119.99 266.27 350.43 +26.79 -196.27 -174.22 Refined 699.13 635.49 484.08 648.86 588.14 596.55 +50.27 +47.36 -112.47 G. Others 2460.45 2853.54 3117.10 1935.52 2211.44 3369.66 +524.93 +642.10 -252.56 Commercial sector 1144.19 1758.19 1732.50 855.02 1146.71 2271.76 +289.17 +611.48 -539.26 Industrial sector 1316.27 1095.35 1384.60 1080.51 1064.72 1097.90 +235.76 +30.62 +286.70 Other industry E. Machinery for misc. inds. Other machineries Marine diesel engine F. Petroleum & petro.prodts. Total 14891.59 15140.56 of which back to back 2600.96 2469.81 20210.86 2267.44 13011.31 13194.56 2425.04 Source: Foreign Exchange Operations Department(FEOD), Bangladesh Bank. Comments and suggestions may be sent to: monjurul.haque@bb.org.bd mnurul.islam@bb.org.bd sadia.sultana@bb.org.bd 25 2211.53 21856.92 3147.00 +1880.28 +1946.00 +175.92 +258.27 -1646.06 -879.56