Bangladesh: Fortnightly Trends of Major Economic Indicators Updates on 31 March 2022

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1. Monetary Policy Department (Financial Reporting and Analysis Wing) Fortnightly Trends of Major Economic Indicators: Updates on 31 March 2022 Broad money increased by Tk 60041.40 crore or 3.85 percent over end June 2021 to Tk 1620936.70 crore in February 2022 against the increase of Tk 107198.10 crore or 7.80 percent over end June 2020 to Tk 1480933.10 crore in February 2021. Broad money increased during the reported period mainly due to increase in domestic credit. Domestic credit increased by 7.39 percent over end June 2021 to Tk 1546240.40 crore in February 2022 against the increase of 4.35 percent over end June 2020 to Tk 1364504.20 crore in February 2021. Domestic credit growth stood higher as compared to the previous year due to higher growth of both credit to public and private sector. Growth of credit to public sector (6.51%) stood higher as compared to the previous year (0.30%) due to a higher growth of both credit to govt. sector and credit to other public sector. As per the latest available data, government overall borrowing from the banking system increased by Tk 10377.24 crore from 01 July 2021 to 31 March 2022 against the decrease of Tk 11738.39 crore during the same period of the preceding fiscal year. Credit to private sector increased by 7.57 percent in February 2022 over end June 2021 against the increase of 5.13 percent in February 2021 over end June 2020. Credit to private sector increased due to come back normalcy in economic activities of the country. Reserve money stood at Tk 320615.30 crore as on 31 March 2022 which was Tk 328422.80 crore as on 15 March 2022. Reserve money however decreased by 7.73 percent as on 31 March 2022 over end June 2021 against the increase of 6.76 percent during the same period of the preceding fiscal year. Reserve money decreased due mainly to the sharp fall of the Net Foreign Assets (NFA) of Bangladesh Bank during the reported period. NBR tax revenue collection stood higher at Tk 24347.85 crore (12.55%) in January 2022 compared to Tk 21631.97 crore (6.36%) in January 2021. In another way, NBR tax revenue collection stood at Tk 153437.93 crore in July-January 2022 which was Tk 132132.97 crore in July-January 2021. Inward Remittances decreased by 17.74 percent to US$ 15298.50 million in July-March 2022 against the increase of 35.02 percent to US$ 18598.23 million in July-March 2021. Remittance declined due to many Bangladeshi migrants lost their jobs during covid-19 period. Recently Government has enhanced cash incentives from 2.00 percent to 2.50 percent which may augment inward remittances through formal legal banking channel in the near future subject to remarkable improvement of Covid-19 situation globally. Exports increased by 33.41 percent to US$ 38605.67 million in July-March 2022 against the decrease of 0.12 percent to US$ 28938.35 million in July-March 2021. Exports seem to increase with the reopening of economic activities home & abroad with the rise of exports demand. However, economic fallout from the Ukraine-Russia war may create uncertainty thereby export growth fall in the near future. 1
2. Current account balance recorded a deficit of US $ 12834.00 million in July-February 2022 against the surplus of US$ 825.00 million in July-February 2021. Current account balance is in deficit mainly for the larger deficit in trade balance which means import is higher than export and lower workers’ remittances. The foreign exchange reserves of BB stood at US$ 44.15 billion as on 31 March 2022 which was US$ 43.44 billion as on 31 March 2021. As per latest available data, foreign exchange reserves of BB stood at US$ 44.21 billion as on 10 April 2022. Inflation on twelve-month average basis (Base: FY2005-06=100) increased to 5.69 percent in February 2022 from 5.62 percent in January 2022. Point to point general inflation also increased to 6.17 percent in February 2022 from 5.86 percent in January 2022. Inflation increased in February due to supply disruptions in the global market, oil price hike and rise in domestic demand after Covid-19 situation. Detailed fortnightly information available up to 31 March 2022 are annexed herewith. 2
3. Annex-1 (continued) Detailed Information on Trends of Major Economic Indicators upto 31 March 2022 I. Money and Credit (Taka in crore) Particulars June 2020 1 1. Broad money (M2) 2. Bank deposits# 3. Domestic credit (A+B) A. Public sector (including govt.) (i+ii) i. Net credit to govt. sector ii. Credit to other public sector B. Credit to private sector 4. Reserve money @ February 2021 June 2021 2 3 4 1373735.00 1480933.10 (+12.64) January 2022 5 R February 2022 6 P July-February 2022 P July-February 2021 7 8 1560895.30 1614120.30 1620936.70 60041.40 107198.10 (+7.80) (+13.62) (+3.41) (+3.85) (-43.99) (+23.38) 1181620.60 1295600.30 1351377.60 1402343.10 1408666.50 57288.90 113979.70 (+10.92) (+9.65) (+14.37) (+3.77) (+4.24) (-49.74) (+43.64) 1307633.80 1364504.20 1439899.10 1534711.50 1546240.40 106341.30 56870.40 (+14.02) (+4.35) (+10.11) (+6.58) (+7.39) (+86.99) (-45.47) 210365.90 210993.60 251043.70 268454.10 267384.50 16340.80 627.70 (+53.97) (+0.30) (+19.34) (+6.94) (+6.51) (+2503.28) (-98.87) 181150.80 179511.50 221025.90 232076.00 231467.70 10441.80 -1639.30 (+59.92) (-0.90) (+22.01) (+5.00) (+4.72) (-736.97) (-103.35) 29215.10 31482.10 30017.80 36378.10 35916.90 5899.10 2267.00 (+25.09) (+7.76) (+2.75) (+21.19) (+19.65) (+160.22) (-66.05) 1097267.90 1153510.60 1188855.30 1266257.40 1278855.90 90000.60 56242.70 (+8.61) (+5.13) (+8.35) (+6.51) (+7.57) (+60.02) (+15.62) -26870.00 19187.30 (-240.04) (-27.91) 283862.40 (+15.67) 303049.70 *** (+6.76) 347485.30 (+22.41) Source: Statistics Department, BB. Note: Figures in the parenthesis of column no 2 to 6 of data from left indicate percentage changes over the previous June. Figures in the parenthesis of column no 7 & 8 indicate percentage changes over corresponding period of the last year. P= Provisional, @=excluding F.C. clearing account, R=Revised *Figure as of 31 March 2022, **Figure as of 15 March 2022, ***Figure as of 31 March 2021. # Including both demand and time deposits (excluding inter-bank) 328422.80 ** (-5.49) 320615.30 * (-7.73) R
4. Annex-1 (continued) II. Government Financing (Taka in crore) As on Particulars 1. A. Net outstanding position of govt. borrowing from Bangladesh Bank B. Net outstanding position of govt. borrowing from banking sector(including BB) Flow for the period of 29 March 2021 31 March 2022P 01-29 March 2021 01-31 March 2022 01 July 2020 to 29 March 2021 01 July 2021 to 31 March 2022 3362.07 14791.12 -8050.42 -1883.33 -40991.43 -9751.02 166084.62 212492.33 -5944.52 -783.44 -11738.39 10377.24 As of end 2. Net outstanding position of non-bank borrowing of the govt.* 3. Govt. tax revenue collection (NBR portion) Flow for the month of Flow for the period of January 2021 January 2022P 368842.80 399605.81 January 2021 January 2022P July-January 2020-21 July-January 2021-22P 21631.97 (+6.36) 24347.85 (+12.55) 132132.97 (+4.39) 153437.93 (+16.12) Source: Research Department & Statistics Department, BB and National Board of Revenue. Note: Figures in the parenthesis indicate percentage changes over the same period of the previous year P= Provisional * Excludes saving certificates held by the banks and includes T.bills & T.bonds held by non-bank financial institutions. January 2020 January 2021P July-January 2020-21 July-January 2021-22 (+)4909.30 (+)2761.83 (+)27853.46 (+)14535.86
5. Annex-1 (concluded) III. External Sector (In million US$) Particulars February 2021 February 2022 July-February 2020-21R July-February 2021-22P 1.Custom based import (c&f) 5564.20 (+17.79) 8324.80 (+49.61) 40068.70 (+1.94) 58774.10 (+46.68) 2. Opening of Import L/C R# 4744.94 6679.58 39870.93 59459.12 (-3.37) (+40.77) (+0.99) (+49.13) 4738.94 7102.42 34606.23 52604.78 (+0.51) March 2021 (+49.87) March 2022 (-7.30) (+52.01) July-March 2020-21R July-March 2021-22P 15298.50 3. Settlement of Import L/C R# ` 4. Inward Remittances 5. Exports 1910.98 1859.97 18598.23 (+49.73) March 2021 (-2.67) March 2022 (+35.02) (-17.74) 3076.03 (+12.59) 4762.22 (+54.82) July-March 2020-21R 28938.35 (-0.12) July-March 2021-22P 38605.67 (+33.41) July-February 2020-21R July-February 2021-22P 825.00 -12834.00 6. Current Account Balance 31 March 2021 15 March 2022 31 March 2022 43440.79 44187.27 44146.78 (+20.54) (-4.75) (-4.84) February 2021 January 2022 February 2022 a. Twelve month average basis 5.63 5.62 5.69 b. Twelve month point to point basis 5.32 5.86 6.17 7. Foreign Exchange Reserve @ IV. Price Index 1. CPI inflation at national level (Base : FY 2005-06=100) Source: Statistics Department and Accounts & Budgeting Department, BB and Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. Note: Figures in the parenthesis indicate percentage changes over the same period of the preceding year. P=Provisional, @ Figures in the parenthesis indicate percentage changes over the previous June.