Bangladesh Bank: Major Economic Indicators - November 2017

Transcription

1. Volume 11 /2017 November 2017 Major Economic Indicators: Monthly Update Monetary Policy Department BANGLADESH BANK
2. Page No . Contents Executive summary 1-2 1. Monetary and credit developments 3 2. Reserve money developments 4 3. CPI and inflation 5 4. 5. Liquidity position of the scheduled banks Financial sector prices a) Weighted average yields on bills and bonds b) Interest rate spread 6 6. Capital market developments 9 7. 8. Agricultural credit and non-farm rural credit Industrial and SME loans a) Industrial term loans b) Outstanding position of SME loans Industrial production a)Quantum index of medium and large-scale manufacturing industry b)Quantum index of small scale manufacturing industry Exports a) Annual exports b) Monthly exports c) Category-wise breakdown of exports Imports a) Custom based import, import LCs settlement and LCs opening b) Sector-wise fresh opening, settlement and outstanding LCs c) Projected data on opening of import LCs & probable liabilities against BTB LCs 10 12. Workers’ remittances 17 13. Foreign exchange holdings by Bangladesh Bank and Commercial Banks 17 14. Foreign aid 18 15. Exchange rate movements 19 16. 17. Balance of payments Public finance a) Government tax revenue collections b) Sale and repayment of National Savings Certificates (NSC) c) Budget financing 20 Food situations 23 9. 10. 11. 18. Appendix 7 8 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 15 16 16 21 22 23 24 -25 Comments and suggestions may be sent to: monjurul.haque@bb.org.bd mnurul.islam@bb.org.bd sadia.sultana@bb.org.bd nabila.fahria@bb.org.bd 0
3. Executive Summary 1 . Movement of monetary indicators Broad money (M2) increased by 10.43 percent (y-o-y) in September 2017 which was Broad money(M2) growth continued to lower than 13.40 percent of the same month of the previous year. Net foreign assets and net slow down and private domestic assets registered 6.61 percent and 11.81 percent growth respectively in September sector credit growth increased in 2017. Private sector credit recorded 17.80 percent growth in September 2017 which was September 2017. higher than 15.34 percent of the same month of the previous year. 2. Inflation scenario Point to point inflation decreased but 12-month average inflation increased in October 2017. The point-to-point inflation decreased to 6.04 percent in October 2017 from 6.12 percent in September 2017. While the twelve-month average inflation increased to 5.59 percent in October 2017 from 5.55 percent in September 2017. 3. State of the financial sector Weighted average Interest rate spread of all banks widened in September, 2017 and call money rate fell up to November 22, 2017 The spread between the weighted average interest rates on advances and deposits of all banks widened in September 2017 from that of August 2017 and stood at 4.55 percent. The weighted average call money rate in the inter-bank money market decreased to 3.82 percent up to November 22, 2017 as compared to 3.87 percent in October 2017. 4. External sector performance Export records a modest growth during July-October, 2017 Merchandise Commodity export increased to USD 11.51 billion during July-October, 2017 which was 7.03 percent higher than USD 10.75 billion during July-October, 2016, according to EPB data. Custom based import during July-September, 2017 increased by 28.39 percent and stood Import growth increased during July-September, 2017 at USD 13.18 billion compared to USD 10.27 billion during July-September, 2016. Fresh opening of import LCs during July-September, 2017 increased by 36.49 percent as compared to that of July-September, 2016 and stood at USD 14.70 billion. From the sectoral distribution of LCs opening during the mentioned period, it is revealed that LCs opening for the industrial raw materials is the highest at 29.96 percent of total LCs opening followed by consumer goods at 19.47 percent. 1
4. External sector performance (contd.) Workers’ remittances inflow increased in October 2017 Receipts of workers’ remittances in October 2017 increased by 35.27 percent and stood at USD 1.16 billion against that of September 2017. It was also higher by 14.65 percent against USD 1.01 billion of October 2016. Total receipts of workers’ remittances increased by USD 0.29 billion or 6.89 percent during July-October, 2017 as compared to that of July-October, 2016. Current account balance continued to a deficit during July-September, 2017. Current account balance recorded a deficit of USD 1.79 billion during July-September, 2017 Both total and net reciepts of foreign aid increased significantly during JulySeptember, 2017. The total foreign aid disbursements during July-September, 2017 increased by USD 0.34 Forex reserves stood at 32.47 billion as on November 22, 2017 The gross foreign exchange reserves of BB stood at USD 33.45 billion (with ACU liability due mainly to a significant trade deficit and lower income from services and primary income accounts compared to that of July-September, 2016. billion or 64.45 percent and stood at USD 0.86 billion as compared to that of July-September, 2016. Net receipt of foreign aid also increased by USD 0.28 billion and stood at USD 0.58 billion during July-September, 2017 as compared to that of July-September, 2016. of USD 1.13 billion) as of end October 2017, as compared to USD 32.82 billion (with ACU liability of USD 0.56 billion) as of end September, 2017. As per the latest available data, gross foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 32.47 billion (with ACU liability of USD 0.49 billion) as on November 22, 2017. NBR tax revenue collection continued to a strong growth during JulySeptember, 2017. 5. Developments in the fiscal sector NBR Tax Revenue collection stood at Taka 43745.40 crore during July-September, 2017 which was 20.06 percent higher than Taka 36435.53 crore during July-September, 2016. 6. Credit disbursement and industrial production The disbursement of agricultural credit increased by 23.37 percent while the disbursement Agricultural credit, SME loan, and the general index of industrial production have increased while industrial term loans decreased during the period under review. of non-farm rural credit decreased by 35.28 percent during July-October, 2017 as compared to July-October, 2016. Outstanding SME loans provided by banks and non-bank financial institutions at the end of June 2017 increased by 13.84 percent compared to the same month of the previous year. Disbursement of industrial term loans during the fourth quarter of FY17 decreased by 17.93 percent and stood at Taka 13751.85 crore and recovery also decreased by 10.38 percent as compared to the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year. The general index of industrial production (medium & large scale manufacturing) stood at 287.08 during July-April, 2016-17 recording an increase of 9.91 percent from the index of 261.20 during July-April, 2015-16. Note: The information furnished in this executive summary and the subsequent pages are provisional and subject to revision. 2
5. 1 . Monetary and credit developments (Taka in Crore) Outstanding stock R Changes in outstanding stock June 2017 over June 2016 P September 2017 September 2016 September 2017 September 2016 over September over September over June 2017 over June 2016 2016 2015 Particulars June 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 A. Net Foreign Assets of the banking system 233135.60 266697.00 263054.30 33561.40 (+14.40) -3642.70 (-1.37) 16308.50 (+6.61) 13610.20 (+5.84) 42969.90 (+21.09) B. Net Domestic Assets of the banking system 683242.30 749379.00 765646.50 66136.70 (+9.68) 16267.50 (+2.17) 80868.90 (+11.81) 1535.30 (+0.22) 67080.40 (+10.86) a) Domestic credit 801280.00 890670.30 913341.00 89390.30 (+11.16) 22670.70 (+2.55) 103628.10 (+12.80) 8432.90 (+1.05) 86070.70 (+11.89) Public sector 130270.70 114613.80 112115.50 -15656.90 (-12.02) -2498.30 (-2.18) -17460.40 (-13.48) -694.80 (-0.53) -4380.70 (-3.27) Government (net) 114219.60 97333.60 94438.20 -16886.00 (-14.78) -2895.40 (-2.97) -19225.30 (-16.91) -556.10 (-0.49) -4509.20 (-3.82) Other Public 16051.10 17280.20 17677.30 1229.10 (+7.66) 397.10 (+2.30) 1764.90 (+11.09) -138.70 (-0.86) 128.50 (+0.81) Private sector 671009.30 776056.50 801225.50 105047.20 (+15.66) 25169.00 (+3.24) 121088.50 (+17.80) 9127.70 (+1.36) 90451.40 (+15.34) -118037.70 -141291.30 -147694.50 -23253.60 -6403.20 -22759.20 -6897.60 -18990.30 916377.90 1016076.00 1028700.80 99698.10 12624.80 97177.40 15145.50 110050.30 (+10.88) (+1.24) (+10.43) (+1.65) (+13.40) 15457.30 (+12.66) -4708.60 (-3.42) 14693.80 (+12.44) -3945.10 (-3.23) 15874.20 (+15.52) 84240.80 (+10.61) 17333.40 (+1.97) 82483.60 (+10.14) 19090.60 (+2.40) 94176.10 (+13.09) b) Other items (net) C. Broad money (A+B) June 2017 September2017 i) Currency outside banks 122074.50 137531.80 132823.20 ii) Deposits 794303.40 878544.20 a) Demand deposits 90356.20 102546.60 98500.20 12190.40 (+13.49) -4046.40 (-3.95) 15241.00 (+18.31) -7097.00 (-7.85) 12845.40 (+18.24) b) Time deposits 703947.20 775997.60 797377.40 72050.40 (+10.24) 21379.80 (+2.76) 67242.60 (+9.21) 26187.60 (+3.72) 81330.70 (+12.54) 895877.60 Source: Statistics Department, BB. Note:- Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes. P=provisional, R= Revised. Broad money The broad money (M2) recorded an increase of Taka 97177.40 crore or 10.43 percent at the end of September 2017 against the increase of Taka 110050.30 crore or 13.40 percent at the end of September 2016. Of the sources of broad money, net domestic assets (NDA) rose by Taka 80868.90 crore or 11.81 percent and net foreign assets (NFA) rose by Taka 16308.50 crore or 6.61 percent at the end of September 2017 as compared to the same month of the previous year. Domestic credit The domestic credit recorded an increase of Taka 103628.10 crore or 12.80 percent at the end of September 2017 against the increase of Taka 86070.70 crore or 11.89 percent at the end of September 2016. Credit to the private sector recorded a growth of 17.80 percent while credit to the public sector decreased by 13.48 percent in September 2017 as compared to the same month of the previous year. Trends of broad money growth (year-on-year) Trends of domestic credit growth (year-on-year) 14.0 16.0 2016-17 2017-18 Percentage 13.0 12.0 11.73 13.0 2016-17 2017-18 12.80 12.5 12.0 11.5 11.89 11.58 11.0 11.0 10.43 Jun. May Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Jul. May Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sep. Aug. Jun. 3 Sep. 10.5 Aug. 10.54 10.0 Jul. Percentage 13.40 14.0 13.66 13.5 15.0
6. 2 . Reserve money developments (Taka in crore) Outstanding stock Changes in outstanding stock June 2017 over June 2016 September 2017 over June 2017 September 2017 over September 2016 4 5 6 7 8 9 252027.00 250809.70 33122.90 (+15.13) -1217.30 (-0.48) 17738.10 (+7.61) 14167.50 (+6.47) 41457.70 (+21.64) -25702.80 -27367.60 -35549.50 -1664.80 (-6.48) -8181.90 (-29.90) 7714.00 (+17.83) -17560.70 (-68.32) -14305.30 (-49.40) Claims on Govt.(net) 13373.70 12977.70 6694.80 -396.00 -6282.90 5690.40 -12369.30 5921.00 Claims on other public 2015.50 2157.80 2152.60 142.30 (+7.06) -5.20 (-0.24) 166.40 (+8.38) -29.30 (-1.45) -141.60 (-6.65) Claims on DMBs 6024.40 5054.40 5276.50 -970.00 (-16.10) -441.10 222.10 (+4.39) -2115.90 48.10 (+0.92) 1809.10 -796.00 (-13.21) -4366.10 -815.60 (-13.49) -19269.10 Particulars June 2016 June 2017 1 2 3 Net Foreign Assets of Bangladesh Bank 218904.10 Net Domestic Assets of Bangladesh Bank* Other items (net) R September2017 P September 2016 September 2016 over September over June 2016 2015 -47116.40 -47557.50 -49673.40 193201.30 224659.40 215260.20 31458.10 (+16.28) -9399.20 (-4.18) 25452.10 (+13.41) -3393.20 (-1.76) 27152.40 (+16.69) 132305.20 151265.20 144131.10 18960.00 (+14.33) -7134.10 (-4.72) 15881.50 (+12.38) -4055.60 (-3.07) 15846.10 (+14.10) i) Currency outside banks 122074.50 137531.80 132823.20 15457.30 (+12.66) -4708.60 (-3.42) 14693.80 (+12.44) -3945.10 (-3.23) 15874.20 (+15.52) ii) Cash in tills 10230.70 13733.40 11307.90 Deposits held with BB 60896.10 73394.20 71129.10 3502.70 (+34.24) 12498.10 (+20.52) -2425.50 (-17.66) -2265.10 (-3.09) 1187.70 (+11.74) 9570.60 (+15.55) -110.50 (-1.08) 662.40 (+1.09) -28.10 (-0.28) 11306.30 (+22.50) 5986.55 11130.58 5861.72 5144.03 -5268.87 1999.61 -2124.45 3658.64 4.74 4.52 4.78 -0.22 0.26 -0.13 0.16 -0.14 Reserve money Currency Issued Of which: Excess reserves Money multiplier Source: Statistics Department, BB. Note:- Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes. P=provisional, R= Revised. * Note :- The change in Net Domestic Assets (NDA) is calculated with the formula : Reserve Money Trends of reserve money growth (year-on-year) Reserve money recorded an increase of Taka 25452.10 crore or 28.5 13.41 percent at the end of September 2017 against the increase 2016-17 26.5 of Taka 27152.40 crore or 16.69 percent at the end of 2017-18 25.98 24.5 Percentage September 2016. Of the sources of reserve money, Bangladesh Bank’s net foreign assets increased by Taka 17738.10 crore or 7.61 percent and net domestic assets increased by Taka 7714.00 22.5 20.5 18.5 16.69 16.5 crore or 17.83 percent at the end of September 2017 as 14.5 compared to September 2016. 13.41 4.52 in June 2017. 4 Jun. May Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sep. Money multiplier stood at 4.78 in September 2017 which was Aug. Jul. 12.5
7. 3 . CPI and Inflation Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Rate of Inflation at National Level (Base : FY2005-06=100) Twelve-Month Average Basis General Food Point to Point Basis Non-food General Food Non-food Index Inflation Index Inflation Index Inflation Index Inflation Index Inflation Index Inflation 2010-11 156.59 10.91 170.48 14.11 138.77 6.21 161.38 11.14 175.24 13.84 143.60 7.16 2011-12 170.19 8.69 183.65 7.72 152.94 10.21 170.32 5.54 179.74 2.57 158.25 10.20 2012-13 181.73 6.78 193.24 5.22 166.97 9.17 184.04 8.06 194.58 8.26 170.53 7.76 2013-14 195.08 7.35 209.79 8.57 176.22 5.54 196.86 6.97 210.15 8.00 179.82 5.45 2014-15 207.58 6.41 223.80 6.68 186.79 5.99 209.17 6.25 223.43 6.32 190.88 6.15 2015-16 219.86 5.92 234.77 4.90 200.74 7.47 220.74 5.53 232.87 4.23 205.19 7.50 2016-17 July August September October November December January February March April May June 220.82 5.84 235.60 4.76 201.86 7.48 224.13 5.40 237.69 4.35 206.75 6.98 221.78 5.77 236.43 4.62 202.99 7.53 226.57 5.37 241.89 4.30 206.93 7.00 222.78 5.71 237.43 4.56 204.00 7.48 230.27 5.53 247.88 5.10 207.69 6.19 223.80 5.66 238.53 4.53 204.91 7.38 231.85 5.57 250.64 5.56 207.75 5.58 224.78 5.60 239.60 4.51 205.79 7.27 231.18 5.38 249.41 5.41 207.81 5.33 225.71 5.51 240.66 4.51 206.54 7.05 231.53 5.03 249.29 5.38 208.76 4.49 226.66 5.44 241.94 4.70 207.07 6.57 234.34 5.15 251.86 6.53 211.88 3.10 227.65 5.41 243.29 4.95 207.60 6.11 234.40 5.31 251.93 6.84 211.92 3.07 228.65 5.39 244.65 5.20 208.14 5.67 235.29 5.39 253.32 6.89 212.18 3.18 229.67 5.38 246.02 5.46 208.71 5.25 235.58 5.47 253.60 6.94 212.48 3.30 230.73 5.41 247.44 5.75 209.29 4.89 232.83 5.76 248.94 7.37 212.18 3.44 231.82 5.44 248.90 6.02 209.92 4.57 233.86 5.94 250.35 7.51 212.72 3.67 2017-18 July 232.86 5.45 250.28 6.23 210.53 4.29 236.61 5.57 254.20 6.95 214.05 3.53 August 233.97 5.50 251.75 6.48 211.17 4.03 239.92 5.89 259.60 7.32 214.68 3.75 September 235.15 5.55 253.38 6.72 211.77 3.81 244.36 6.12 267.38 7.87 214.84 3.44 October 236.31 5.59 254.97 6.89 212.40 3.65 245.86 6.04 269.73 7.62 215.26 3.61 Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Planning. 5 12 month average 6.1 Point to point 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.2 Oct.17 Sep.17 Aug.17 Jul.17 Jun.17 Apr.17 May 17 Mar.17 Feb.17 Jan.17 Oct.16 4.9 Dec.16 5.0 Nov.16 The point to point general inflation decreased to 6.04 percent in October 2017 from 6.12 percent in September 2017, as food inflation decreased at 7.62 percent. However, non-food inflation stood at 3.61 percent in October 2017 as compared to 3.44 percent of September 2017. CPI(Base:FY2005-06=100) Inflation 6.2 Percentage The twelve month average general inflation edged up marginally to 5.59 percent in October 2017 from 5.55 percent of September, 2017. The average food inflation increased to 6.89 percent while the average non-food inflation decreased to 3.65 percent in October 2017 from September 2017.
8. 4 . Liquidity position of the scheduled banks (In crore Taka) As of end June, 2017 Bank Group 1 As of end September 2017 Total Liquid Assets Cash in tills + balances with Sonali Bank Ltd. 2 3 Balances with Bangladesh Bank1/ CRR State-owned Banks P Unencumbered approved securities Total Liquid Assets Minimum Required Liquid Local Currency Foreign Currency 4a 4b 5 6=(3+4a+4b+5) 7 * Assets 2/ Excess Reserve (un-invested cash) 109029.15 1676.43 17059.59 757.37 177.89 84344.54 104015.82 50837.23 1692.35 0.00 1714.63 0.00 11.53 0.00 1726.16 1714.63 Private Banks (Other than Islamic) 107163.15 7673.34 28815.19 1202.34 2356.59 65152.28 105199.74 85861.21 Islamic Banks 29187.52 2402.33 12276.10 5625.51 499.51 7649.34 28452.79 22663.56 Foreign Banks 20122.14 606.38 2634.77 600.23 3474.30 14315.52 21631.19 7785.45 Total 267194.31 12358.48 62500.27 8185.45 6519.83 171461.68 261025.70 168862.09 (+4.73) (+23.94) (+3.14) (+2.50) (+65.69) Specialised Banks Source : Department of Offsite Supervision, BB. Note :- Figures in brackets indicate sectoral share in the total liquid assets. P=provisional, R= Revised. *CRR is calculated @ 6.5% of total demand and time liabilities. 1/ Balances with Bangladesh Bank in local currency = CRR + Excess Reserve. 2/ Minimum required liquid assets is the sum of CRR and SLR. Comment: The data shown on the above table are based on the regulatiry purpose of Bangladesh Bank. Total liquid assets of the scheduled banks stood at Taka 261025.70 crore as of end September 2017 which was Taka 267194.31 crore at the end of June 2017. The minimum required liquid assets of the scheduled banks was Taka 168862.09 crore as of end September 2017. Sectoral distribution of total liquid assets as of end September 2017 in the form of cash in tills & balances with Sonali Bank Ltd., CRR, excess reserves, balances with Bangladesh Bank (foreign currency) and un-encumbered approved securities were 4.73 percent, 23.94 percent, 3.14 percent, 2.50 percent, and 65.69 percent respectively of total liquid assets. Sectoral distribution of total liquid assets (as of end September 2017) Unencumbered approved securities, 65.69% Liquid assets Minimum required liquid assets 2950 2650 2350 Billion taka Balances with BB (Foreign Currency), 2.50% Liquid assets & minimum required liquidity 3250 Excess Reserve, 3.14% 2050 1750 1450 1150 6 Sep.17 Aug.17 Jul.17 Jun.17 May.17 Apr.17 Mar.17 Feb.17 Jan.17 Dec.16 Nov.16 550 250 Cash in tills+balances with SBL, 4.73% Oct.16 CRR, 23.94% Sep.16 850
9. 5 . Financial sector prices: a) Weighted average yields on bills and bonds1/: Treasury Bills BGTB BB Bill Repo* 91-Days 182-Days 364-Days 2-Years 5-Years 10-Years 15-Years 20-Years 30-Days Call Reverse Repo* Money Rate 2016-17 July 4.72 5.31 5.88 6.50 7.05 7.46 7.97 8.44 2.93 6.75 4.75 3.68 August 3.48 September 3.26 ---- ---- 5.99 6.53 7.10 7.80 8.24 2.96 6.75 4.75 3.65 3.99 4.25 5.31 ---- ---- 7.69 8.17 2.96 6.75 4.75 3.64 October 3.12 3.35 4.00 5.19 6.00 6.89 7.53 7.99 2.97 6.75 4.75 3.52 November 2.99 December 2.98 ---- ---- 4.39 5.72 6.77 7.46 7.91 2.97 6.75 4.75 3.56 3.23 3.76 ---- 5.91 6.32 7.64 7.89 2.97 6.75 4.75 3.62 January 2.97 3.14 3.53 4.23 5.79 6.65 7.47 7.78 2.97 6.75 4.75 3.54 February 2.90 ---- ---- ---- 5.02 6.62 7.15 7.48 2.97 6.75 4.75 3.50 March ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 2.97 6.75 4.75 3.66 April 2.86 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 2.97 6.75 4.75 3.76 May ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 2.97 6.75 4.75 3.81 June 3.65 4.11 4.37 4.90 5.68 6.74 7.66 8.00 2.96 6.75 4.75 3.93 4.05 4.28 4.42 4.98 5.86 6.91 ---- ---- 2.96 6.75 4.75 3.72 2017-18 July August ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 2.97 6.75 4.75 3.77 September 3.85 4.01 4.25 4.82 5.68 6.91 7.71 8.02 2.97 6.75 4.75 3.91 October 3.33 ---- ---- ---- 5.63 6.94 ---- ---- 2.97 6.75 4.75 3.87 3.06 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 2.97 6.75 4.75 3.82 @ November Source: MPD and DMD, BB . 1/ Weighted average rate. ---- = there was no auction. @ = upto November 22 nd , 2017. * The Repo and Reverse Repo rates are re-fixed at 6.75% and 4.75% respectively, with effect from 14.01.2016. The weighted average yields on 91-Days Treasury Bills decreased to 3.06 percent up to November 22, 2017 as compared to 3.33 percent of October, 2017. The weighted average yields on 182-Days and 364-Days Treasury Bills decreased to 4.01 percent and 4.25 percent in September, 2017 as compared to 4.28 percent and 4.42 percent respectively in July, 2017. The weighted average yields on 5-Years BGTB decreased to 5.63 percent while that of 10-Years BGTB increased to 6.94 percent in October, 2017 as compared to 5.68 percent and 6.91 percent respectively in September, 2017. The weighted average yield on 2-Years BGTB decreased to 4.82 percent in September, 2017 as compared to 4.98 percent of July, 2017. The weighted average yield on 15-Years and 20-Years BGTB in September, 2017 increased to 7.71 percent and 8.02 percent respectively from 7.66 percent and 8.00 percent of June, 2017. The weighted average yield on 30-Days BB Bill up to November 22, 2017 remained the same 2.97 percent as compared to that of October, 2017. The weighted average call money rate in the inter-bank money market decreased to 3.82 percent up to November 22, 2017 as compared to 3.87 percent in October, 2017. Yield on Treasury Bills Repo, Reverse Repo & Call Money Rate 5.3 u 7 Nov.17 Oct.17 Sep.17 Aug.17 Jul.17 Jun.17 Ma y.17 Apr.17 2.8 Nov.16 Oct.17 3.3 2.3 Nov.17 (Upto 22) Sep.17 Aug.17 Jul.17 Jun.17 May17 Apr.17 Feb.17 Mar.17 Jan.17 Dec.16 3.8 3.8 Ma r.17 4.5 364-Days 4.3 Feb.17 5.3 182-Days 4.8 Ja n.17 W.ave. yield in percent 6.0 3.0 91-Days Call Money Rate Dec.16 Reverse Repo* 6.8 Nov.16 W. average rate in percent Repo* 7.5
10. b ) Interest rate spread: Sector-wise break down of interest rate spread in the banks All other sectors SME Agriculture Large Industries (excluding SME) All Banks Interest rate on deposits Non-Bank FIs Services Interest Interest Interest Interest Interest Interest rate on Spread rate on Spread rate on Spread rate on Spread rate on Spread rate on Spread advances advances advances advances advances advances Interest rate on deposits Interest rate on Spread advances 2016-17 July 5.48 10.32 4.84 11.35 5.87 10.03 4.55 9.43 3.95 9.77 4.29 10.32 4.84 8.90 12.89 3.99 August 5.44 10.24 4.80 11.21 5.77 9.97 4.53 9.61 4.17 9.75 4.31 10.29 4.85 8.84 12.80 3.96 September 5.39 10.11 4.72 11.04 5.65 9.90 4.51 9.70 4.31 9.62 4.23 10.07 4.68 8.71 12.68 3.97 October 5.33 10.03 4.70 10.90 5.57 9.79 4.46 9.57 4.24 9.46 4.13 10.02 4.69 8.61 12.73 4.12 November 5.29 9.94 4.65 10.86 5.57 9.68 4.39 9.34 4.05 9.33 4.04 10.03 4.74 8.53 12.35 3.82 December 5.22 9.93 4.71 10.79 5.57 9.68 4.46 9.31 4.09 9.32 4.10 9.95 4.73 8.47 12.32 3.85 January 5.13 9.85 4.72 10.67 5.54 9.61 4.48 9.37 4.24 9.25 4.12 9.90 4.77 8.42 12.26 3.84 February 5.08 9.77 4.69 10.66 5.58 9.51 4.43 9.34 4.26 9.17 4.09 9.82 4.74 8.38 12.19 3.81 March 5.01 9.70 4.69 10.60 5.59 9.44 4.43 9.35 4.34 9.09 4.08 9.65 4.64 8.34 12.07 3.73 April 4.97 9.62 4.65 10.56 5.59 9.35 4.38 9.29 4.32 9.02 4.05 9.55 4.58 8.35 11.98 3.63 May 4.93 9.66 4.73 10.65 5.72 9.39 4.46 9.30 4.37 9.09 4.16 9.66 4.73 8.37 11.79 3.42 June 4.84 9.56 4.72 10.39 5.55 9.32 4.48 9.36 4.52 9.05 4.21 9.51 4.67 8.37 11.69 3.32 July 4.89 9.51 4.62 10.37 5.48 9.26 4.37 9.00 4.11 9.01 4.12 9.43 4.54 8.34 11.61 3.27 August 4.93 9.46 4.53 10.30 5.37 9.22 4.29 8.97 4.04 8.95 4.02 9.40 4.47 8.33 11.59 3.26 September 4.90 9.45 4.55 10.09 5.19 9.27 4.37 8.90 4.00 8.96 4.06 9.52 4.62 8.31 11.49 3.18 2017-18 Source: Statistics Department, Bangladesh Bank . The spread between the weighted average interest rate on advances and deposits of all banks widened at the end of September 2017 as compared to August 2017 and stood at 4.55 percent. The spread of NBFIs narrowed at the end of September 2017 as compared to August 2017 and stood at 3.18 percent. The weighted average interest rate on deposits of all banks decreased and stood at 4.90 percent and the weighted average deposit rate of all NBFIs also decreased and stood at 8.31 percent at the end of September 2017 as compared to that of August 2017. Sector-wise breakdown of interest rate spread Institution wise breakdown of interest rate spread 5.2 Sep.17 Aug,17 Sep. 16 8 Jul. 17 4.2 3.7 Sep.17 Aug,17 Jul. 17 Jun. 17 May 17 Apr. 17 Mar. 17 Feb. 17 Jan. 17 Dec. 16 Nov. 16 3.0 Oct. 16 3.2 Jun. 17 3.4 4.7 Mar. 17 3.6 Feb. 17 3.8 Services 5.2 Jan. 17 4.0 Dec. 16 4.2 Large Industries 5.7 Oct. 16 4.4 Agriculture May 17 W. Ave. rate in percent 4.6 Sep. 16 W. Ave. rate in percent SME 6.2 4.8 Apr. 17 NBFIs Nov. 16 Banks 5.0 6.7
11. 6 . Capital market developments: Calender Year Annual capital market developments in DSE (Taka in crore ) General Index / Enlisted issues Issued Capital Market DSE (Incl. Mutual Turnover during and Debentures Capitalisation Broad Index Funds/Deb.) the Year 2010 445 66436.00 347250.20 400991.28 8290.41 2011 501 87890.50 261673.00 156055.63 5257.61 2012 515 94987.60 240356.00 100108.49 4219.31 2013 529 99978.50 264779.00 95269.21 4266.55 2014 546 105492.60 325925.00 118852.15 4864.96 2015 559 110608.10 315976.00 103139.86 4629.64 2016 560 114530.00 341244.10 119157.12 5036.05 Monthly capital market developments in DSE Enlisted issues (Taka in crore) End Month (Incl. Mutual Issued Capital Funds/Deb.) Janaury'17 560 February'17 DSE Broad Index (DSEX) and Debentures Market Capitalisation Turnover during the month 114693.00 366811.50 34232.02 5468.34 562 114910.10 373930.40 19404.84 5612.70 March'17 562 115255.20 379830.60 21770.14 5719.61 April'17 562 115607.00 371092.80 15317.78 5475.55 May'17 562 115791.00 368301.90 12258.22 5403.12 June'17 563 116551.10 380100.10 10156.38 5656.05 July'17 564 117018.70 396133.80 20929.46 5860.65 August'17 564 117554.50 402090.80 19589.24 6006.43 September'17 564 117805.40 407208.30 19944.12 6092.84 October'17 566 118151.90 409026.60 15697.43 6019.59 Source : Dhaka Stock Exchange The DSE Broad Index (DSEX) at the end of 6100 3800 5750 3500 5400 listed securities at the end of October 2017 stood 3200 higher at Taka 409026.60 crore from Taka 2900 407208.30 crore at the end of September 2017. 2600 5050 4700 4350 4000 9 Oct.17 Sep.17 Aug.17 July17 June17 Apr.17 May17 Mar.17 3300 Feb.17 3650 2000 Jan.17 2300 Dec.16 capitalization of all shares and debentures of the 6450 Capitalisation in billion taka (LHS) DSEX (RHS) 4100 Nov.16 that of end September 2017. The total market Trends in market capitalisation and indices of DSE 4400 Oct.16 October 2017 stood lower at 6019.59 compared to
12. 7 . Agricultural credit and non-farm rural credit a. Agricultural credit (Taka in crore) 2017-18 Month P 2016-17 Disbursement Recovery b. Non-farm rural credit R (Taka in crore) 2017-18 Month Disbursement P 2016-17R Recovery Disbursement Recovery Disbursement Recovery July 1489.57 1500.40 945.31 868.12 July 84.50 113.21 110.69 August 1153.12 1159.76 933.15 1109.60 August 66.86 92.41 73.48 80.25 September 1355.18 1548.65 1238.48 1228.38 September 86.51 149.38 142.74 178.51 October 1875.81 1521.40 1644.19 1475.02 October 93.21 92.94 184.67 109.42 July-October 5873.68 (+23.37) 5730.21 (+22.41) 4761.13 (+15.45) 4681.12 (+15.69) 331.08 (-35.28) 447.94 (+0.50) 511.58 (+0.86) 445.71 July-October 77.53 (-1.26) Programmed level for disbursement of agricultural credit and non-farm rural credit was Tk.20400.00 crore for FY18. Agricultural credit disbursement 3600 Non-farm rural credit disbursement 2016-17 3300 270 2017-18 2017-18 230 3000 210 2700 190 110 Jun. Ma y Apr. Mar. Feb. Jul. Jun. May Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. 30 Oct. 300 Sep. 50 Aug. 600 Jul. 70 Jan. 90 900 Dec. 1200 130 Nov. 1500 150 Oct. 1800 170 Sep. 2100 Aug. 2400 In crore taka In crore taka 2016-17 250 Disbursement of agricultural credit increased by 23.37 percent while that of non-farm rural credit decreased by 35.28 percent during July-October, 2017 compared to that of July-October, 2016. The banks disbursed a total of Taka 62.05 billion to both the sectors during July-October, 2017. The recovery of the agriculture credit and non-farm rural credit increased by 22.41 percent and 0.50 percent respectively during July-October, 2017 as compared to that of JulyOctober, 2016. Overdue and outstanding credit in agricultural sector (Taka in crore) 2017-18 End Month October P Overdue Outstanding 6468.88 (+2.79) 39222.04 (+12.65) 2016-17 Overdue as % of outstanding 16.49 Overdue Outstanding 6293.27 (-7.22) 34816.53 (+9.08) R Overdue as % of outstanding 18.08 Source: Agricultural Credit Department. The position of overdue agricultural credit as percentage of total outstanding credit has decreased from 18.08 percent at the end of October 2016 to 16.49 percent at the end of October 2017. 10
13. 8 . Industrial and SME loans a) Industrial term loans Yearly (Tk. in crore) Period Recovery Disbursement LSI MSI SSCI Total LSI MSI SSCI Total FY 2013-14 29046.19 9585.93 3679.20 42311.32 28999.63 9423.48 3383.58 41806.69 FY 2014-15 45468.67 9689.37 4625.66 59783.70 32801.39 9897.35 4842.07 47540.81 Quarterly FY2015-16 July-September 9492.55 2112.21 1094.92 12699.68 7905.36 2012.77 1154.23 11072.36 October-December 13575.32 2237.30 2006.15 17818.78 8203.00 1949.37 1793.16 11945.52 January-March 14263.71 2506.26 1494.63 18264.60 9021.12 2029.25 1386.38 12436.75 April-June 11921.17 2493.47 2341.00 16755.64 9087.54 2718.03 965.07 12770.65 FY2016-17 July-September 9929.23 1977.24 1138.48 13044.95 8757.30 2393.42 1272.31 12423.03 October-December January-March 14174.89 11874.89 3068.03 2297.39 2332.28 1610.79 19575.20 15783.08 9845.57 11068.85 2137.40 2186.06 1696.30 1292.14 13679.28 14547.05 April-June 10303.45 1780.86 1667.54 13751.85 8189.85 1991.79 1263.57 11445.21 (-13.57) (-28.58) (-28.77) (-17.93) (-9.88) (-26.72) (+30.93) (-10.38) LSI MSI SSCI Total LSI MSI SSCI Total 12434.26 6040.07 1216.29 19690.62 110357.61 26362.56 9382.02 146102.19 16465.96 6862.74 1928.98 25257.68 132295.26 26088.33 12604.60 170988.19 End Period June, 2016 June, 2017 Outstanding Overdue The disbursement of total industrial term loans during April-June, 2017 decreased by 17.93 percent and stood at Taka 13751.85 crore as compared to Taka 16755.64 crore during April-June, 2016. The recovery of industrial term loans also decreased by 10.38 percent and stood at Taka 11445.21 crore during April-June, 2017 against Taka 12770.65 crore during the same period of the previous fiscal year. Outstanding amount of industrial term loans at the end of June, 2017 stood at Taka 170988.19. At the same time the overdue of industrial term loans is 25257.68 crore. Source: SME & Special Programmes Department. Note:- Figures in brackets indicate overdue as % of outstanding. LSI=Large Scale Industries, MSI=Medium Scale Industries, SSCI= Small Scale & Cottage Industries. b) Outstanding position of SME loans (Tk. in crore) The total SME loans by the banks and nonbank financial institutions increased by Taka 22212.31 crore or 13.84 percent and stood at Taka 182705.80 crore at the end of June, 2017 as compared to Taka 160493.49 crore at the end of June, 2016. The increase of SME loans of different category-wise institution at the end of June, 2017 are 5.82 percent in state-owned banks, 15.74 percent in private banks, 26.87 percent in foreign banks and 27.82 percent in non-bank financial institutions as compared to that of June, 2016. While for the specialized banks it decreased by 49.92 percent. Banks/NBFIs Quarter Ending June, 2016 Types of Loans State Owned Banks Total Loans 116836.68 SME Loans Private Banks Foreign Banks Specialised Banks Non-Bank Fin. Ins. Total 465050.21 25881.09 22251.27 49309.20 679328.45 29540.90 120890.72 1971.17 1699.58 6391.11 160493.49 (25.28) (26.00) (7.62) (7.64) (12.96) (23.63) 22251.27 46914.05 682900.94 958.23 (4.31) 6595.47 (14.06) 160659.39 (23.53) 21842.40 48853.18 722733.09 594.31 (2.72) 6903.80 (14.13) 172639.00 (23.89) 21842.40 51193.32 848.57 (3.88) 7373.96 (14.40) 748139.12 174564.79 (23.33) Total Loans 119061.10 469024.57 25649.95 September, 2016 SME Loans 29685.20 (24.93) 121393.48 (25.88) Total Loans 123836.09 503052.70 25148.72 December, 2016 SME Loans 29774.05 (24.04) 132953.57 (26.43) Total Loans 125046.13 523441.58 26615.69 March, 2017 SME Loans 29930.47 (23.94) 134136.23 (25.63) Total Loans 128832.98 550088.87 29402.98 23193.82 53618.35 785137.00 June, 2017 SME Loans 31260.33 (24.26) 139924.51 (25.44) 2500.85 (8.51) 851.23 (3.67) 8168.88 (15.24) 182705.80 (23.27) 5.82 15.74 26.87 -49.92 27.82 13.84 % changes of SME loans at the end of June, 2017 over June, 2016 2027.01 (7.90) 2413.27 (9.60) 2275.57 (8.55) Source: SME & Special Programmes Department, Note:- Figures in brackets indicate SME loans as percentage of total loans. SME loans as percentage of total loans stood at 23.27 percent at the end of June, 2017 as compared to 23.63 percent of June, 2016. The percentage share of SME loans from different categories of banking and financial institutions to total SME loan as of end June, 2017 is shown in the pie chart. Institution-wise sharing of SME loans (June, 2017) Foreign Banks, 1.37% Specialised Banks, 0.47% Private Banks, 76.58% State Owned Banks, 17.11% 11 Non-Bank Financial Institutions, 4.47%
14. 9 . Industrial production Quantum index of medium and large-scale manufacturing industry (Base: 2005-06=100) Index Major Industry Group Weight Average Index Apr-16 Apr-17 P Jul-Apr 2015-16 Jul-Apr 2016-17P Percentage change P Apr '17 Jul-Apr 2016-17 over over Apr '16 Jul-Apr 2015-16 100.00% 266.15 307.48 261.20 287.08 15.53 9.91 Wearing apparel 34.84% 318.30 327.43 337.60 2.79 3.11 General Textile 14.07% 152.39 327.17 183.58 133.13 164.06 20.47 23.23 Food products Pharmaceuticals and medicinal chemical 10.84% 8.23% 364.65 354.34 406.10 499.57 380.05 311.44 365.23 399.83 11.37 40.99 -3.90 28.38 Non-metalic mineral products 7.12% 282.32 386.19 253.35 335.60 36.79 32.46 Leather and related products 4.40% 120.86 236.02 119.98 181.59 95.28 51.34 Chemicals and chemical products 3.67% 84.25 139.00 94.73 106.09 64.99 11.99 Basic metals 3.15% 203.80 179.39 208.61 172.96 -11.98 -17.09 Tobacco products 2.92% 146.42 148.58 129.55 139.07 1.48 7.35 Fabricated metal products except machinery 2.32% 219.62 259.58 196.99 241.38 18.20 22.53 Others* 8.44% 246.69 278.88 235.12 272.45 13.05 15.88 Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. *Others means residual items. P = Provisional. The general index of industrial production (medium & large scale manufacturing) stood at 287.08 during July-April, 2016-17 and recorded an increase of 9.91 percent over JulyApril, 2015-16. 300 280 266.15 320 260 240 Apr/17 Ma r/17 Feb/17 Jan/17 Dec/16 Nov/16 Oct/16 Sep/16 Aug/16 Jul/16 Jun/16 Ma y/16 Apr/16 220 Quantum index of small scale manufacturing industries (Base:1995-96=100) 500 The general index of small scale manufacturing 480 industry during the second quarter (October- 460 December, 2016) of FY17 increased by 0.95 440 percent and stood at 483.36 from the index of 420 478.84 during the first quarter (July-September, 2016) of FY17, it also increased by 8.77 percent 400 as compared to the same quarter of FY16. FY15 FY16 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 380 Q1 Indices 307.48 340 Monthly Indices The indices those recorded increases during July-April, 2016-17 compared to July-April, 2015-16 are: leather and related products (51.34%), non-metallic mineral products (32.46%), pharmaceuticals & medicinal chemical (28.38%), Textile (23.23%), fabricated metal products except machinery (22.53%), chemicals and chemical products (11.99%), tobacco products (7.35%), and wearing apparel (3.11%). On the other hand, the indices those recorded decreases during July-April, 2016-17 compared to JulyApril, 2015-16 are basic metals (17.09%) and food products (3.90%). Quantum index of medium & large scale manufacturing industries (Base:2005-06=100) FY17 12
15. 10 . Exports A. Annual exports (US$ in million) 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 24301.90 (+5.99) 27027.36 (+11.22) 30186.62 (+11.69) 31208.94 (+3.39) 34257.18 (+9.77) 34846.84 (+1.72) B. Monthly exports 2016-17 R 2015-16 July 2534.31 2625.93 August 3303.50 2758.41 September 2241.01 2374.65 October 2712.83 2371.50 November 2899.32 2749.34 December 3107.13 3204.07 January 3312.04 3185.63 February 2726.12 2854.22 March 3109.76 2831.42 April 2775.69 2682.05 May 3069.04 3026.99 June 3056.09 34846.84 3592.97 34257.18 (+1.72) (+9.77) 2017-18 P* 2016-17 * July 2987.66 2534.31 August 3640.94 3288.65 September 2034.13 2227.15 2843.07 11505.80 (+7.03) 2700.25 10750.36 (+6.12) Month July-June Month October July-October Export target was set USD 37500.00 million for FY 2017-18 of which export target for Juy-September, 2017 was Source USD : Export 8916.00 Promotion million. Bureau (EPB). R=Revised; P=Provisional. *Revised according to the revised definition (Primary Commodities+Manufactured Commodoties) of commodity exports by EPB. Note:- Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes over the corresponding period of the preceding year. Merchandise Commodity export in October 2017 increased by USD 0.81 billion or 39.77 percent to USD 2.84 billion from USD 2.03 billion in September 2017 according to EPB data. It was 6.28 percent higher than the target of 2.68 billion for the said month. Total merchandise commodity export during July-October 2017-18 increased by USD 0.76 billion or 7.03 percent to USD 11.51 billion compared to USD 10.75 billion during July-October 2016-17. Export performance: Value Trends Commodity Merchandise Export-Cummulative growth 4050 20.00 2016-17 2016-17 3800 2017-18 2016-17R* 2017-18 3550 (Million USD) 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 3300 3050 2800 2550 2300 Latest available data on category-wise breakdown of exports are shown in the next page. 13 Jun. Apr. May. Mar. Jan. Feb. Dec. Nov. Aug. Jul. Oct. Jun. May Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sep. Aug. Jul. 1800 Sep. 2050 -5.00
16. C . Category-wise breakdown of exports (US$ in million ) July-October, 2017 Particulars July-October, 2016 Changes during July-October, 2017 over July-October, 2016 In amount In percent 1. Raw Jute 50.71 68.16 -17.45 -25.60 2. Jute goods (excl.carpet) 294.30 228.10 66.20 29.02 1.00 0.88 0.12 13.64 4. Frozen and live fish 226.91 196.61 30.30 15.41 5. Leather 59.34 90.49 -31.15 -34.42 6. Woven garments 4451.53 4286.30 165.23 3.85 7. Knitwear 4986.20 4535.14 451.06 9.95 8. Chemical products 45.00 43.20 1.80 4.17 9. Agricultural products* 53.47 43.28 10.19 23.54 10. Engineering products (including electrical goods) 96.30 120.10 -23.80 -19.82 11. Others** 1241.04 1138.10 102.94 9.04 TOTAL 11505.80 10750.36 755.44 7.03 3. Tea Source : Export Promotion Bureau (EPB). Note:- * = Includes vegetables, fruits & tobacco, **Others = residual items. Category-wise breakdown of exports shows that during July-October, 2017 exports of jute goods (+29.02%), agricultural products (+23.54%), frozen & live fish (+15.41%), tea (+13.64%), knitwear (+9.95%), chemical products (+4.17%) and woven garments (+3.85%) experienced positive growth compared to that of July-October, 2016; on the other hand, leather (-34.42%), raw jute (-25.60%) and engineering products (-19.82%) experienced negative growth during July-October, 2017 compared to that of July-October, 2016. Category-wise share of total exports (July-October, 2016) Category-wise share of total exports (July-October, 2017) Frozen and live fish, 1.97% Jute goods (excl.carpet) 2.56% Frozen and live fish, 1.83% Others, 13.44% Jute goods (excl.carpet) 2.12% Others, 13.99% Knitwear, 42.19% Knitwear, 43.34% Woven garments, 38.69% Woven garments, 39.87% 14
17. 11 . Imports a) Custom based import, import LCs settlement and LCs opening (US$ in million) Month ………………… ………....FY Custom based import (c&f) Import LCs settlement Import LCs opening 2013-14 2012-13 2013-14 2012-13 2013-14 2012-13 40616.40 37289.80 37188.84 32358.52 41818.56 35961.05 Month 2015-16 R 2014-15 2015-16 R 2014-15 2015-16 R 2014-15 July August September October November December January February March April May June July-June 2856.80 3415.70 3197.20 3866.90 3664.60 3898.30 3591.50 3353.00 3654.00 3541.80 4266.00 3816.70 43122.50 (+5.94) 2556.10 3458.80 3733.00 3304.00 3059.20 3444.80 3268.80 3202.00 3404.10 3835.50 3899.20 3538.20 40703.70 (+0.21) 3437.71 3502.55 2985.45 3268.85 3407.74 3701.52 3351.55 3200.16 3365.75 3154.28 3285.88 3414.76 40076.20 (+4.22) 2964.69 3461.55 3369.85 3145.15 3259.60 3390.64 3037.47 2807.87 3351.97 3179.16 3205.56 3281.73 38455.24 (+3.41) 3011.64 3631.73 3135.37 3232.57 4468.22 3585.21 3387.16 3125.36 3988.72 3546.88 3599.03 4623.44 43335.33 (+0.62) 3655.65 3475.02 3704.30 3142.60 3760.76 3547.28 3501.47 3257.30 4262.45 3518.94 3682.60 3560.39 43068.76 (+2.99) Month July August September October November December January February March April May June July-June 2016-17P 2941.50 3796.60 3531.30 4124.70 4221.60 3994.10 4301.70 3760.90 4311.20 4170.50 4352.00 3499.10 47005.20 (+9.00) 2015-16R 2856.80 3415.70 3197.20 3866.90 3664.60 3898.30 3591.50 3353.00 3654.00 3541.80 4266.00 3816.70 43122.50 (+5.94) 2016-17P 2804.36 4353.94 4451.61 3530.65 3882.78 3565.46 3962.34 3294.45 3790.07 3738.15 3624.66 3274.28 44272.76 (+10.47) 2015-16R 3437.71 3502.55 2985.45 3268.84 3407.74 3701.53 3351.55 3200.16 3365.75 3154.28 3285.88 3414.75 40076.19 (+4.22) 2016-17P 3097.80 4203.03 3471.54 4119.23 3801.95 4329.31 4441.16 3775.34 4430.74 4297.71 4150.92 4007.21 48125.92 (+11.05) 2015-16R 3011.64 3631.73 3135.37 3232.57 4468.22 3585.21 3387.16 3125.36 3988.72 3546.88 3599.03 4623.44 43335.33 (+0.62) Month 2017-18P 2016-17 2017-18P 2016-17 2017-18P 2016-17 July August September July-Septe mber 4325.60 4701.20 4157.60 13184.40 (+28.39) 2941.50 3796.60 3531.30 10269.40 (+8.44) 4046.06 3994.94 3785.62 11826.61 (+1.87) 2804.36 4353.95 4451.61 11609.91 (+16.97) 4709.68 5422.31 4571.17 14703.16 (+36.49) 3097.80 4203.02 3471.54 10772.36 (+10.16) Source: National Board of Revenue (NBR), Foreign Exchange Operations Department of Bangladesh Bank , NA=Not Available. Note:- Figures in brack ets indicate percentage changes over the corresponding period of the preceding year. 2. =Customs based dataupto incorporated MEI February, 2015 onwards with the approval of competent authority. R Data has beenc&f revised June 2017inas persince rivision by NBR. P = Provisional. R= Revised. Custom based import during July-September, 2017-18 stood higher by USD 2.92 billion or 28.39 percent and stood at USD 13.18 billion against USD 10.27 billion during July-September, 2016-17. Custom based import growth-cumulative 50% 47.05% 2016-17 2017-18 40% 33.97% Settlement of import LCs during July-September, 201718 increased by 1.87 percent and stood at USD 11.83 billion against USD 7.16 billion during July-September, 2016-17. 30% 28.39% 20% 10% Jul-Jun. Jul-May Jul-Apr. Jul-Mar. Jul-Feb. Jul-Jan. Jul-Dec. Jul-Nov. Jul-Oct. Jul-Sep. Jul. 15 Jul-Aug. 0% Fresh opening of import LCs during July-September, 2017-18 increased by 36.49 percent and stood at USD 14.70 billion compared to USD 10.77 billion during JulySeptember, 2016-17.
18. b ) Sector-wise fresh opening, settlement and outstanding of import LCs Sector-wise comparative statistics of fresh opening, settlement and outstanding of import LCs during July-September, 2017 and July-September, 2016 are shown below: (US$ in million) P Percentage changes during July-September, July-September, 2017 July-September, 2016 2017 over July-September, 2016 Outstanding Outstanding Outstanding Fresh Fresh Fresh opening Settlement LCs at the Settlement of LCs at the Settlement of LCs at the end opening of opening of of LCs of LCs LCs LCs end period end period period LCs LCs Sectors / Commodities A. Consumer goods 2862.49 1721.18 3211.76 1441.18 941.78 2026.63 98.62 82.76 58.48 B. Intermediate goods 1116.87 899.16 1799.81 825.27 765.60 1664.93 35.33 17.45 8.10 C. Industrial raw materials 4404.86 4214.44 6630.72 3795.59 4035.30 5468.92 16.05 4.44 21.24 D. Capital machinery 1320.85 1286.97 6002.80 1036.77 1808.36 5083.50 27.40 -28.83 18.08 E. Machinery for misc. inds. 1750.90 1219.55 2372.47 1241.50 1257.40 1722.21 41.03 -3.01 37.76 F. Petroleum & petro.prodts. 1024.08 597.77 812.64 599.05 498.18 632.11 70.95 19.99 28.56 G. Others 2223.11 1887.55 3703.60 1833.01 2303.31 3084.31 21.28 -18.05 20.08 Total 14703.16 11826.61 24533.80 10772.36 11609.91 19682.61 36.49 1.87 24.65 of which back to back 2021.40 1869.99 2762.10 1942.23 Source: Foreign Exchange Operations Department, Bangladesh Bank. P=Provisional. 1921.84 2184.31 4.08 -2.70 26.45 The developments of sectoral share in total LCs opening during July-September, 2017 and July-September, 2016 are showing in the following pie charts. Sectoral sharing in LC Opening (July-September, 2017) Others , 15.12% Petroleum & petro.products , 6.97% Machinery for misc. industry, 11.91% Sectoral sharing in LC Opening (July-September, 2016) Consumer goods, 19.47% Petroleum & petro.products , 5.56% Intermediate goods, 7.60% Capital machinery, 8.98% Consumer goods, 13.38% Others , 17.02% Intermediate goods, 7.66% Machinery for misc. industry, 11.52% Industrial raw materials, 29.96% Industrial raw materials, 35.23% Capital machinery, 9.62% Sector-wise detailed statistics of fresh opening, settlement and July-September, 2017 and July-September, 2016 are given in Appendix. outstanding of import LCs during C) Projected data on opening of import LCs and probable liabilities against back to back LCs of authorised dealer banks (In million USD) Month Opening of import LCs Probable liabilities of banks against back to back LCs November'17 4184.91 1325.93 December'17 4240.03 1346.09 January'18 4301.64 1312.90 November'17-January'18 12726.57 3984.91 Source: All authorized dealer banks, compiled by Monetary Policy Department (MPD), Bangladesh Bank. Data on projection of opening of import LCs and probable liabilities against back to back LCs sent by the authorised dealer banks are USD 12.73 billion and USD 3.98 billion respectively during November'17-January'18 The said liability is 12.27 percent of foreign exchange reserves as on November, 22, 2017. 16
19. 12 . Workers’ remittances Annual and monthly trends of remittances (USD in million) 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Cummulative growth of workers' remittance inflow R 20 1056.64 October 1159.09 1010.99 July-October 4550.11 4256.75 (+6.89) (-15.41) -15 -20 -25 -30 Jun. 856.87 May September Apr. 1183.61 Mar. 1418.58 -5 -10 Feb. 1005.51 Jan. 1115.57 August 0 Dec. July 2017-18 5 Nov. 2016-17 R 2015-16 10 Oct. 2017-18 P 2016-17 15 Sep. 12769.45 (-14.48) Aug. Month 14931.15 (-2.52) Jul. 15316.91 (+7.65) Percentage Monthly Remittances Annual Remittances Source : Statistics Department, Bangladesh Bank. Note:- Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes over the same period of the previous year P=Provisional; R = Revised. Receipt of workers’ remittances in October 2017 increased by 35.27 percent and stood at USD 1.16 billion against that of September 2017. It was also higher by 14.65 percent against USD 1.01 billion of October 2016. Total receipts of workers’ remittances increased by USD 0.29 billion or 6.89 percent during July-October, 2017 as compared to that of July-October, 2016. 13. Foreign exchange holdings by Bangladesh Bank and Commercial Banks (a) Gross foreign exchange reserves of Bangladesh Bank(BB): The gross foreign exchange reserves of BB stood at USD 33.45 billion (with ACU liability of USD 1.13 billion) as of end October 2017, as compared to USD 32.82 billion (with ACU liability of USD 0.56 billion) as of end September, 2017. The foreign exchange reserves (less ACU liability) is equivalent to import liability of 7.62 months; according the average of the previous 12 months (October, 2016- September, 2017) this import liability is of USD 4.16 billion per month on an average. (b) Gross foreign exchange balances held by Commercial Banks(CBs): The gross foreign exchange balances held by commercial banks stood at USD 2.90 billion as of end October 2017 which was lower than USD 3.13 billion of end September 2017. It was also marginally lower than the balance of USD 2.92 billion at the end October 2016. (US$ in million) 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 21507.99 25025.25 30168.23 (+40.44) (+16.35) (+20.55) Month / Year 2016-17 2015-16 July 30039.29 25469.08 August September 31165.06 31385.87 26175.34 26379.04 October 31895.31 27058.39 November 31370.88 32092.19 26407.63 27493.31 31724.17 32556.66 32215.19 32518.77 32245.69 33492.95 27139.14 28058.56 28265.93 29106.26 28802.90 30168.23 2017-18P 2016-17R 2.35 July 32993.98 30039.29 2.20 August 33596.25 31165.06 September October 32816.59 33452.29 31385.87 31895.31 7.9 7.6 7.3 7.0 FX reserve held by CBs in billion USD 3.25 3.10 2.95 2.80 2.65 Source : Accounts & Budgeting Department, Bangladesh Bank . 17 Oct.17 Sep.17 Aug.17 Jul.17 Jun.17 May.17 Apr.17 Mar.17 2.50 Jan.17 Month / Year 8.8 8.2 Feb.17 April May June 9.1 8.5 Dec.16 B. Outstanding January stock at the end February of the month March Gross FX reserves in billion USD (LHS) Reserve covers months of import (RHS) Oct.16 December R FX reserves held by BB 37.0 35.0 33.0 31.0 29.0 27.0 25.0 23.0 21.0 19.0 17.0 Nov.16 A. Outstanding stock at the end of the year
20. 14 . Foreign aid Month Food Project Total Payment Net Aid Aid Aid (Principal) Foreign Food Project Total Aid Aid Aid (US$ in million) Net Payment Foreign (Principal) Aid Month FY2016-17 Aid R FY2015-16 July 0.00 142.27 142.27 89.60 52.67 0.00 120.15 120.15 96.50 23.65 August 0.00 158.64 158.64 45.18 113.46 0.00 132.02 132.02 97.50 34.52 September 8.44 211.84 220.28 85.41 134.87 6.46 223.76 230.22 44.03 186.19 October 0.00 251.48 251.48 79.00 172.48 0.00 258.48 258.48 69.19 189.29 November 0.00 174.22 174.22 71.88 102.34 0.00 192.17 192.17 75.79 116.38 December 5.22 442.98 448.20 75.95 372.26 6.15 599.50 605.65 69.90 535.75 January 0.00 144.05 144.05 81.57 62.48 0.00 216.23 216.23 82.12 134.11 February 0.00 431.83 431.83 42.86 388.97 0.00 242.96 242.96 40.50 202.46 March 6.20 344.93 351.13 111.94 239.19 12.56 556.94 569.50 77.26 492.24 April 0.00 145.79 145.79 80.74 65.05 0.00 120.71 120.71 80.59 40.12 May 0.00 315.41 315.41 67.92 247.49 0.00 248.82 248.82 69.30 179.52 June 0.00 748.16 748.16 62.50 685.66 6.74 506.32 513.06 64.53 448.53 July-June 19.86 3511.60 3531.46 894.55 2636.91 31.91 3418.06 3449.97 867.20 2582.77 (-37.76) (+2.74) (+2.36) (+3.15) (+2.10) (-14.95) (+11.53) (+11.21) (-4.17) (+17.54) FY2017-18 P Month July August 0.00 368.22 368.22 4.12 123.95 128.07 September 3.08 357.73 360.81 July-September 7.20 849.91 857.11 (-14.69) (+65.76) (+64.45) FY2016-17 R 109.56 258.66 0.00 142.27 142.27 89.60 52.67 44.77 83.30 0.00 158.64 158.64 45.18 113.46 124.51 236.30 8.44 211.84 220.28 85.41 134.87 278.84 578.27 8.44 512.75 521.19 220.19 301.00 (+26.64) (+92.12) (+30.65) (+7.74) (+8.04) (-7.49) (+23.18) Source : Bangladesh Bank & Ministry of Finance, P=Provisional; R = Revised Total foreign aid disbursements during July- Foreign Aid in million USD September, 2017 increased significantly by USD 0.34 900 billion or 64.45 percent compared to July-September, 800 2016 and stood at USD 0.86 billion. Total Aid 857.11 700 600 578.27 After principle repayment of USD 0.28 billion, the net receipt of foreign aid stood at USD 0.58 billion during Net Aid 521.19 500 July-September, 2017 as compared to USD 0.30 400 billion of the same period of the previous year. 300 301.00 200 100 July-September, 2017 18 July-September, 2016