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Turkey: Survey of Expectations - January 2018

IM Research
By IM Research
6 years ago
Turkey: Survey of Expectations - January 2018

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  1. Statistics Department SURVEY OF EXPECTATIONS January 2018 Statistics Department Real Sector Data Division SURVEY OF EXPECTATIONS RESPONSES 1- Expectation of Monthly Consumer Inflation (CPI) 1.1 Expectation of Monthly Consumer Inflation (CPI) (%) 1.2 Expectation of Annual Consumer Inflation (CPI) - Short Term (%) 1.3 Expectation of Annual Consumer Inflation (CPI) - Long Term (%) 1.4 Probability Distributions of Consumer Price Index (CPI) Expectations (%) (*) 2- Expectation of the US Dollar Rate in the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (TRY) 3- Expectation of the Annual Current Account Balance (Billion US Dollars) 4- Expectation of the Annual GDP Growth Rate (%) 5- Expectation of Weighted Average Cost of the CBRT Funding (%) 6- Expectation of the Borsa Istanbul (BIST) Repo and Reverse Repo Market Overnight Interest Rate (%) 7- Expectation of One-Week CBRT Repo Auction Interest Rate 7.1 Expectation of One-Week CBRT Repo Auction Interest Rate - Short Term (%) 7.2 Expectation of One-Week CBRT Repo Auction Interest Rate - Long Term (%) 8- Expectation of annually compounded interest rate of TRY denominated Government Domestic Debt Securities with maturity of about three months 910- 8.1 Expectation of annually compounded interest rate of TRY denominated Government Domestic Debt Securities with maturity of about three months (%) 8.2 Expectation of annually compounded interest rate of TRY denominated Government Domestic Debt Securities with maturity of about three months (%) Expectation of the Secondary Market Annually Compounded Interest Rate of Fixed Rate TRY Denominated Government Domestic Debt Securities with Maturity of About Five Years (%) Expectation of the Secondary Market Annually Compounded Interest Rate of Fixed Rate TRY Denominated Government Domestic Debt Securities with Maturity of About Ten Years (%) www.tcmb.gov.tr 1
  2. Statistics Department Contents SURVEY OF EXPECTATIONS RESPONSES PARTICIPANTS Real Sector January 2018 Responses 9 Business Organizations 1 Holdings 8 Financial Sector 55 Banks 37 Non-Bank Financial Sector 18 Professionals 5 Academy Members 2 Journalists 2 Other Professionals 1 Total 69 2
  3. Statistics Department Expectation of Consumer Inflation Contents Contents Expectation of Monthly Consumer Inflation (CPI) (%) Current Month Next Month 2- Month Ahead No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean January-17 68 0.43 1.48 1.50 1.50 1.44 67 0.38 0.75 0.72 0.70 0.69 66 0.35 0.80 0.76 0.70 0.76 February-17 63 0.38 0.62 0.60 0.50 0.62 61 0.33 0.74 0.80 0.80 0.76 60 0.27 0.95 1.00 1.00 0.95 March-17 69 0.29 0.70 0.72 0.50 0.68 67 0.27 0.92 0.95 1.00 0.91 64 0.27 0.64 0.68 0.50 0.62 April-17 64 0.33 0.96 1.00 1.00 0.95 64 0.33 0.60 0.60 0.50 0.60 62 0.48 0.28 0.30 0.30 0.24 May-17 63 0.33 0.63 0.60 0.50 0.59 63 0.50 0.25 0.25 0.10 0.22 60 0.37 0.38 0.30 0.20 0.35 Current Period June-17 75 0.27 0.14 0.15 0.30 0.14 73 0.22 0.25 0.24 0.20 0.25 73 0.24 0.21 0.20 0.20 0.22 July-17 67 0.23 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.18 65 0.24 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.21 63 0.27 0.57 0.50 0.50 0.57 August-17 56 0.22 0.21 0.20 0.20 0.21 55 0.24 0.57 0.55 0.50 0.57 55 0.50 1.17 1.25 1.20 1.17 September-17 66 0.22 0.57 0.55 0.50 0.57 65 0.45 1.22 1.30 1.60 1.22 64 0.22 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 October-17 58 0.40 1.31 1.35 1.00 1.31 57 0.26 0.60 0.60 0.50 0.60 57 0.33 0.51 0.45 0.30 0.51 November-17 67 0.28 0.75 0.75 0.80 0.75 66 0.40 0.50 0.45 0.50 0.43 67 0.49 1.27 1.20 1.50 1.27 December-17 66 0.43 0.59 0.50 0.50 0.55 66 0.44 1.29 1.25 1.00 1.29 66 0.42 0.73 0.60 0.50 0.67 January-18 64 0.44 1.32 1.30 1.30 1.32 61 0.23 0.62 0.60 0.60 0.62 60 0.22 0.78 0.80 0.90 0.78 3
  4. Statistics Department Expectation of Consumer Inflation o Contents Expectation of Annual Consumer Inflation (CPI) - Short Term (%) End of the Year Current Period No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median End of the Next 12 Months Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median End of the Next 24 Months Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean January-17 69 0.89 8.58 8.40 8.00 8.48 60 1.03 8.33 8.20 8.00 8.19 60 1.05 7.70 7.53 7.50 7.59 February-17 64 0.51 8.87 8.99 9.00 8.87 57 0.63 8.21 8.10 8.00 8.21 56 0.71 7.59 7.50 7.00 7.59 March-17 73 0.63 9.12 9.00 9.00 9.08 62 0.72 8.18 8.00 8.00 8.15 59 0.76 7.70 7.70 7.00 7.70 April-17 67 0.84 9.38 9.25 9.50 9.28 59 0.92 8.34 8.20 8.00 8.27 57 0.71 7.87 7.80 8.00 7.87 May-17 67 0.73 9.61 9.50 9.50 9.53 57 0.92 8.41 8.40 8.50 8.41 56 0.79 7.98 7.95 8.00 7.93 June-17 78 0.61 9.59 9.50 9.50 9.55 68 0.66 8.32 8.41 8.50 8.32 67 0.67 7.88 7.90 8.00 7.90 July-17 71 0.55 9.55 9.50 9.50 9.49 63 0.66 8.41 8.40 8.50 8.41 62 0.61 7.93 7.93 7.50 7.93 August-17 64 0.47 9.51 9.50 9.50 9.46 55 0.81 8.48 8.50 8.50 8.37 53 0.62 7.96 8.00 8.00 7.92 September-17 70 0.59 9.74 9.72 9.50 9.72 62 0.83 8.44 8.50 8.50 8.35 60 0.80 8.02 8.00 8.00 7.93 October-17 63 0.56 9.98 9.90 9.80 9.89 54 0.78 8.61 8.50 8.50 8.52 53 0.77 8.03 8.00 8.00 7.98 November-17 74 0.63 10.74 10.69 11.00 10.68 68 1.01 8.99 8.73 8.50 8.65 65 1.08 8.34 8.00 8.00 8.25 December-17 68 0.54 11.83 11.71 11.70 11.74 65 1.14 9.44 9.20 9.00 9.30 63 1.28 8.63 8.30 8.00 8.47 January-18 66 0.74 9.55 9.50 9.50 9.55 61 0.86 9.24 9.12 9.00 9.24 60 0.98 8.29 8.00 8.00 8.23 4
  5. Statistics Department Expectation of Consumer Inflation o Contents Expectation of Annual Consumer Inflation (CPI) - Long Term (%) End of the Next 5 Years (*) End of the Next 10 Years (*) Current Period No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean November-17 62 1.30 6.70 6.50 6.00 6.70 61 1.55 6.09 6.00 5.00 5.99 December-17 60 1.43 6.75 6.50 6.00 6.66 60 1.65 6.18 6.00 5.00 6.05 January-18 56 1.35 6.76 6.68 5.00 6.67 56 1.70 6.23 6.00 5.00 6.10 5
  6. Statistical Department Probability Distributions of Consumer Price Index (CPI) Expectations (%) Contents (*) 12-Month Ahead Current Period January-17 No. Of Obs. < 5.00 5.00-5.49 5.50-5.99 6.00-6.49 6.50-6.99 7.00-7.49 7.50-7.99 8.00-8.49 8.50-8.99 9.00-9.49 39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.82 5.21 8.44 19.51 28.88 20.62 12.63 9.50-9.99 10.00-10.49 3.89 0.00 10.50-10.99 11.00-11.49 11.50-11.99 ≥ 12.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 February-17 38 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 2.44 12.14 24.28 31.77 20.17 5.74 1.66 1.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 March-17 43 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.03 3.57 10.00 22.40 29.96 22.33 7.94 1.33 1.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 April-17 37 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.91 9.91 18.02 27.79 25.41 10.98 2.95 2.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 May-17 36 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.44 5.33 9.83 17.73 27.83 18.62 10.63 5.77 2.31 0.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 June-17 43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.09 9.20 18.09 29.70 21.88 11.82 4.89 1.20 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 July-17 40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 1.49 7.52 19.22 28.82 21.38 15.28 4.76 1.30 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 August-17 38 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 1.76 8.07 14.51 30.52 27.29 16.13 1.58 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.80 1.17 0.23 0.00 1.46 1.07 0.35 0.00 September-17 40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 4.02 9.95 13.64 20.93 23.61 15.76 6.14 2.75 October-17 36 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.16 5.82 12.83 20.87 27.99 16.58 8.81 3.06 November-17 43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.43 4.43 17.17 27.65 24.08 12.04 7.25 3.18 1.25 0.20 2.33 December-17 42 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.29 8.65 21.46 28.85 19.38 11.50 4.51 1.98 0.00 2.38 January-18 37 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.27 0.27 1.78 4.77 8.18 18.10 27.62 21.28 9.75 4.65 1.49 1.32 0.39 10.50-10.99 11.00-11.49 11.50-11.99 ≥ 12.00 0.52 0.22 0.00 2.39 24-Month Ahead (**) Current Period No. Of Obs. < 5.00 5.00-5.49 5.50-5.99 6.00-6.49 6.50-6.99 7.00-7.49 7.50-7.99 8.00-8.49 8.50-8.99 9.00-9.49 November-17 42 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.64 5.03 10.89 20.42 25.92 20.29 8.35 9.50-9.99 10.00-10.49 3.03 2.30 December-17 41 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.31 7.43 21.79 23.71 20.01 11.20 3.99 3.40 3.59 1.88 0.25 2.44 January-18 37 0.00 0.17 0.90 2.19 3.37 7.31 17.50 22.33 17.56 13.17 7.14 2.85 2.32 1.48 1.32 0.39 (*) Detailed information is available at website of CBRT under the menu "Statistics/Tendency Surveys/Survey of Expectations/Metadata" (**) The format of the probability distribution question of "expectation of consumer inflation for the next 24 months" has been changed starting from November 2017. The probability distributions of expectations are started to be determined according to the point forecasts given by the respondents, while they were kept constant before.   6
  7. Statistics Department Contents Expectation of the US Dollar Rate in the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (TRY) End of the Current Month End of the Year End of the Next 12 Months No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean January-17 72 0.0619 3.7598 3.7825 3.8000 3.7675 70 0.1963 3.8619 3.8700 4.0000 3.8619 63 0.2778 3.9553 3.9800 4.0000 3.9553 February-17 66 0.0682 3.7189 3.7275 3.7500 3.7189 65 0.1835 3.8807 3.9000 4.0000 3.8807 58 0.2480 3.9600 3.9500 4.0000 3.9600 March-17 72 0.0699 3.7569 3.7500 3.7500 3.7537 74 0.1608 3.8495 3.9000 3.9000 3.8495 65 0.1826 3.9194 3.9000 4.0000 3.9194 April-17 69 0.0689 3.6989 3.7000 3.7000 3.6989 66 0.1593 3.8453 3.8500 3.9000 3.8352 61 0.1948 3.9593 3.9200 4.0000 3.9385 May-17 67 0.0430 3.6080 3.6000 3.6000 3.6080 68 0.1555 3.8027 3.8000 3.8000 3.8027 57 0.1916 3.9395 3.9400 3.9000 3.9395 June-17 79 0.0424 3.5558 3.5500 3.5500 3.5558 78 0.1325 3.7553 3.7500 3.7500 3.7553 71 0.1642 3.9132 3.9000 4.0000 3.9042 July-17 70 0.0357 3.5851 3.5938 3.6000 3.5851 69 0.1133 3.7492 3.7500 3.8000 3.7492 64 0.1657 3.8882 3.9000 3.9000 3.9043 August-17 61 0.0332 3.5628 3.5500 3.5500 3.5586 62 0.1164 3.7260 3.7200 3.8000 3.7199 56 0.1355 3.8717 3.9000 3.9000 3.8717 September-17 70 0.0449 3.4629 3.4500 3.4500 3.4629 69 0.1077 3.6323 3.6500 3.6000 3.6323 62 0.1465 3.8255 3.8250 3.8000 3.8255 October-17 62 0.0536 3.6554 3.6500 3.6500 3.6522 63 0.1009 3.7237 3.7229 3.7500 3.7165 57 0.1446 3.8776 3.8900 3.9000 3.8757 November-17 74 0.0484 3.8590 3.8525 3.8500 3.8590 74 0.1153 3.8624 3.8550 3.8500 3.8624 67 0.2231 4.0941 4.1000 4.0000 4.0819 December-17 71 0.0770 3.8752 3.8800 3.9000 3.8805 71 0.0770 3.8752 3.8800 3.9000 3.8805 67 0.2014 4.1424 4.1500 4.1000 4.1534 January-18 69 0.0692 3.8091 3.8000 3.8000 3.8007 66 0.1769 4.1192 4.1275 4.0000 4.1156 59 0.2562 4.2647 4.2300 4.2500 4.2392 Current Period 7
  8. Statistics Department Contents Expectation of the Annual Current Account Balance (Billion US Dollars) Current Year Next Year No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean January-17 70 4.9 -36.0 -35.0 -35.0 -35.4 60 6.7 -38.5 -38.0 -40.0 -38.2 February-17 63 3.7 -35.3 -35.0 -35.0 -35.6 55 4.8 -37.5 -38.0 -40.0 -37.9 March-17 69 3.8 -35.6 -35.0 -35.0 -35.8 58 4.9 -38.0 -38.0 -38.0 -38.5 April-17 65 3.7 -35.6 -36.0 -36.0 -35.7 56 5.0 -38.0 -38.0 -38.0 -38.5 May-17 62 3.5 -35.5 -35.9 -35.0 -35.6 53 4.2 -37.8 -38.5 -38.0 -38.3 June-17 74 2.9 -35.7 -36.0 -35.0 -35.8 64 3.8 -38.2 -39.0 -40.0 -38.7 July-17 65 2.2 -36.4 -36.0 -35.0 -36.3 60 3.5 -38.9 -39.0 -40.0 -38.5 August-17 59 2.3 -36.8 -37.0 -37.0 -36.7 52 3.7 -38.8 -39.0 -40.0 -38.6 September-17 65 2.2 -37.2 -37.0 -36.0 -36.9 59 3.2 -39.3 -39.0 -40.0 -39.3 October-17 59 2.1 -38.3 -38.0 -38.0 -38.0 54 3.6 -40.1 -40.0 -40.0 -40.1 November-17 71 2.2 -39.1 -39.0 -38.0 -39.1 67 4.0 -40.5 -40.0 -40.0 -40.5 December-17 64 2.5 -40.5 -40.0 -39.0 -40.5 60 4.2 -41.7 -41.0 -40.0 -41.7 January-18 64 4.0 -43.9 -44.0 -45.0 -43.8 59 5.5 -44.6 -45.0 -45.0 -44.6 Current Period 8
  9. Statistics Department Contents Expectation of the Annual GDP Growth Rate (%) Current Year Next Year No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean January-17 70 0.5 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 61 0.6 3.5 3.5 4.0 3.6 February-17 65 0.5 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 58 0.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 March-17 73 0.5 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 64 0.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 April-17 67 0.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 60 0.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.7 May-17 67 0.5 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.2 58 0.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.7 June-17 77 0.5 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.4 71 0.6 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.7 July-17 69 0.6 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.1 64 0.6 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.9 August-17 62 0.6 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.4 56 0.6 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 September-17 68 0.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.6 64 0.6 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 October-17 62 0.5 5.2 5.2 5.5 5.2 57 0.6 4.3 4.1 4.0 4.3 November-17 73 0.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 69 0.7 4.2 4.2 4.0 4.2 December-17 66 0.6 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.7 64 0.8 4.2 4.3 4.0 4.2 January-18 68 0.7 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.6 62 0.6 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.5 Current Period 9
  10. Statistics Department Contents Contents Expectation of Weighted Average Cost of the CBRT Funding (%) Current Month 3- Month Ahead No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean January-17 68 0.41 9.13 9.18 9.00 9.13 February-17 62 0.42 10.30 10.35 10.40 10.37 March-17 69 0.26 10.81 10.80 11.00 10.81 April-17 65 0.32 11.46 11.50 11.50 11.49 May-17 63 0.17 11.92 11.95 12.00 11.96 June-17 74 0.12 11.96 11.97 12.00 11.97 July-17 65 0.35 11.88 11.95 11.95 11.96 August-17 58 0.15 11.98 11.97 12.00 11.97 September-17 67 0.09 11.98 12.00 12.00 12.00 October-17 58 0.02 11.99 12.00 12.00 12.00 November-17 71 0.13 12.01 12.00 12.00 December-17 65 0.51 12.72 12.75 January-18 65 0.15 12.71 12.75 Current Period (*) 12- Month Ahead No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean No. Of Std. Obs. Dev. 12.00 71 0.71 12.36 12.00 12.00 12.20 67 12.25 12.72 63 0.85 12.79 12.75 12.25 12.73 12.75 12.75 64 0.60 12.78 12.75 12.75 12.68 (*) Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean 1.24 11.69 11.95 12.00 11.69 63 1.32 12.23 12.00 12.00 12.23 60 1.09 12.28 12.25 12.00 12.15 (*) Included in the survey starting from November 2017. 10
  11. Statistics Department Contents Expectation of the Borsa Istanbul (BIST) Repo and Reverse Repo Market Overnight Interest Rate (%) End of the Current Month No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean January-17 62 0.62 9.55 9.50 10.00 9.55 February-17 58 0.63 10.19 10.15 11.00 10.19 March-17 63 0.56 10.66 10.60 11.00 10.66 April-17 58 0.50 11.38 11.40 11.75 11.38 May-17 56 0.33 11.86 11.83 12.25 11.86 June-17 64 0.24 11.95 11.90 12.00 11.96 July-17 58 0.27 11.93 11.91 12.25 11.95 August-17 53 0.22 11.97 11.95 12.25 11.97 September-17 59 0.51 11.88 12.00 12.25 11.98 October-17 49 0.19 11.98 11.98 12.00 11.98 November-17 58 0.28 12.02 12.00 12.25 12.02 December-17 61 0.64 12.49 12.25 12.00 12.44 January-18 58 0.41 12.47 12.50 12.75 12.50 Current Period 11
  12. Statistics Department Contents Expectation of One-Week CBRT Repo Auction Interest Rate - Short Term (%) End of the Current Month 3 - Month Ahead Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median 8.50 8.50 8.55 61 0.71 8.87 8.08 8.00 8.00 8.00 58 0.48 0.28 8.11 8.00 8.00 8.00 62 61 0.18 8.04 8.00 8.00 8.00 May-17 61 0.11 8.03 8.00 8.00 June-17 70 0.19 8.03 8.00 8.00 No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median January-17 65 0.54 8.55 February-17 58 0.19 March-17 64 April-17 Current Period 6 - Month Ahead Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean 8.75 9.00 8.87 59 0.68 8.95 9.00 8.50 8.95 8.43 8.38 8.00 8.43 57 0.61 8.59 8.50 8.00 8.59 0.50 8.39 8.25 8.00 8.31 57 0.59 8.58 8.50 8.00 8.53 59 0.48 8.29 8.00 8.00 8.21 56 0.58 8.38 8.25 8.00 8.27 8.00 60 0.50 8.25 8.00 8.00 8.10 57 0.73 8.36 8.00 8.00 8.17 8.00 69 0.38 8.15 8.00 8.00 8.00 67 0.48 8.23 8.00 8.00 8.09 July-17 61 0.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 61 0.25 8.07 8.00 8.00 8.00 60 0.42 8.12 8.00 8.00 8.01 August-17 55 0.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 52 0.21 8.05 8.00 8.00 8.00 50 0.51 8.16 8.00 8.00 8.00 September-17 63 0.07 8.01 8.00 8.00 8.00 61 0.19 8.05 8.00 8.00 8.00 57 0.39 8.14 8.00 8.00 8.00 October-17 54 0.07 8.01 8.00 8.00 8.00 53 0.20 8.05 8.00 8.00 8.00 51 0.39 8.10 8.00 8.00 8.00 November-17 65 0.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 65 0.41 8.11 8.00 8.00 8.00 62 0.47 8.14 8.00 8.00 8.00 December-17 62 1.03 8.39 8.00 8.00 8.00 60 1.11 8.47 8.00 8.00 8.00 59 1.06 8.47 8.00 8.00 8.00 January-18 62 0.03 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 61 0.36 8.09 8.00 8.00 8.00 58 0.37 8.10 8.00 8.00 8.00 12
  13. Statistics Department Contents Expectation of One-Week CBRT Repo Auction Interest Rate - Long Term (%) 12 - Month Ahead 24 - Month Ahead No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean January-17 58 0.73 8.71 8.50 9.00 8.71 57 0.93 8.43 8.25 8.00 8.43 February-17 55 0.68 8.57 8.50 8.00 8.52 54 0.73 8.37 8.00 8.00 8.32 March-17 56 0.66 8.51 8.50 8.00 8.51 56 0.75 8.29 8.13 8.00 8.29 April-17 55 0.72 8.38 8.50 8.00 8.29 55 0.87 8.20 8.00 8.00 8.18 May-17 55 0.74 8.42 8.25 8.00 8.25 53 0.90 8.36 8.00 8.00 8.15 June-17 65 0.52 8.23 8.00 8.00 8.15 65 0.61 8.13 8.00 8.00 8.13 July-17 57 0.53 8.21 8.00 8.00 8.09 56 0.74 8.16 8.00 8.00 8.11 August-17 49 0.50 8.19 8.00 8.00 8.07 49 0.50 8.01 8.00 8.00 8.05 September-17 57 0.49 8.19 8.00 8.00 8.10 56 0.68 8.14 8.00 8.00 8.09 October-17 49 0.40 8.18 8.00 8.00 8.01 49 0.50 8.08 8.00 8.00 8.03 November-17 61 1.01 8.30 8.00 8.00 8.00 59 1.20 8.26 8.00 8.00 8.00 December-17 59 1.01 8.46 8.00 8.00 8.15 59 1.01 8.23 8.00 8.00 8.00 January-18 56 0.42 8.12 8.00 8.00 8.00 55 0.66 8.03 8.00 8.00 8.00 Current Period 13
  14. Statistics Department Contents Expectation of annually compounded interest rate of TRY denominated Government Domestic Debt Securities with maturity of about three months (%) End of the Current Month 1 - Month Ahead Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median 10.50 10.00 10.39 55 0.76 10.44 10.82 11.00 11.00 10.87 54 0.53 0.40 10.84 10.80 11.00 10.84 54 56 0.43 10.91 10.86 11.00 10.84 May-17 52 0.44 11.18 11.23 11.00 June-17 60 0.58 11.13 11.13 July-17 53 0.45 10.91 August-17 48 0.50 11.02 September-17 54 0.39 October-17 47 November-17 3 - Month Ahead Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean 10.50 11.00 10.53 54 0.70 10.50 10.50 11.00 10.50 10.89 11.00 11.00 10.94 52 0.59 10.87 11.00 11.00 10.89 0.43 10.91 10.90 11.00 10.91 52 0.53 10.88 11.00 11.00 10.85 54 0.48 10.92 10.90 11.00 10.89 53 0.55 10.81 10.85 10.50 10.81 11.18 50 0.48 11.16 11.18 11.00 11.16 49 0.60 11.15 11.10 11.00 11.15 11.00 11.09 59 0.62 11.11 11.10 11.20 11.07 59 0.67 11.07 11.00 11.00 11.03 10.90 11.00 10.87 52 0.45 10.90 10.88 11.00 10.85 51 0.46 10.87 10.95 11.00 10.87 10.95 10.90 10.99 47 0.51 11.02 11.00 11.00 10.98 48 0.50 11.01 11.00 11.00 11.01 11.36 11.38 11.00 11.33 53 0.41 11.37 11.40 11.50 11.32 54 0.38 11.29 11.25 11.00 11.29 0.50 11.88 12.00 11.50 11.88 46 0.46 11.79 11.80 11.50 11.79 44 0.58 11.59 11.50 12.00 11.59 57 0.66 12.70 12.80 12.50 12.70 56 0.88 12.67 12.68 12.50 12.61 55 1.31 12.53 12.50 12.50 12.42 December-17 55 0.55 13.10 13.25 13.50 13.10 54 0.72 13.02 13.08 13.00 13.07 54 0.85 12.88 12.95 13.00 12.88 January-18 52 0.34 13.15 13.13 13.50 13.18 51 0.47 13.11 13.10 13.00 13.16 51 0.65 13.04 13.00 13.00 13.02 No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median January-17 55 0.73 10.34 February-17 54 0.48 March-17 57 April-17 Current Period 14
  15. Statistics Department Contents Expectation of annually compounded interest rate of TRY denominated Government Domestic Debt Securities with maturity of about three months (%) 6 - Month Ahead 12 - Month Ahead Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median 10.28 10.00 10.38 52 0.84 10.11 10.77 10.90 10.50 10.81 51 0.86 0.63 10.78 10.80 11.00 10.78 52 53 0.56 10.77 10.80 11.00 10.74 May-17 49 0.64 11.10 11.00 11.00 June-17 59 0.70 10.94 11.00 July-17 51 0.54 10.76 August-17 46 0.54 10.86 September-17 52 0.49 October-17 44 November-17 24 - Month Ahead Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean 10.00 10.00 10.11 52 1.13 9.79 10.00 9.00 9.79 10.43 10.25 10.00 10.43 51 1.14 10.11 10.00 10.00 10.11 0.86 10.45 10.50 10.00 10.45 52 1.09 10.08 10.00 10.00 10.08 53 0.84 10.45 10.50 10.50 10.45 53 1.05 10.11 10.10 10.00 10.11 11.10 49 0.78 10.67 10.55 10.50 10.61 49 0.99 10.30 10.10 10.00 10.24 11.00 10.90 59 0.82 10.46 10.50 10.00 10.40 59 0.93 10.08 10.00 10.00 10.12 10.80 11.00 10.76 50 0.69 10.41 10.50 10.50 10.41 50 0.89 10.06 10.10 9.00 10.06 10.80 11.00 10.76 46 0.72 10.58 10.50 10.50 10.58 46 0.91 10.22 10.25 10.50 10.21 11.06 10.95 11.00 11.06 52 0.75 10.76 10.55 10.50 10.76 52 0.97 10.35 10.20 10.00 10.35 0.67 11.32 11.23 11.50 11.34 44 0.80 11.03 11.00 11.00 11.03 44 0.97 10.77 10.50 10.50 10.77 55 1.25 12.24 12.20 12.00 12.15 54 1.35 11.81 11.90 11.00 11.65 53 1.36 11.18 11.00 10.00 11.18 December-17 53 0.96 12.64 12.50 12.50 12.64 53 1.16 12.22 12.00 12.00 12.22 53 1.32 11.48 11.50 11.00 11.48 January-18 51 0.74 12.89 12.80 13.00 12.84 51 0.96 12.32 12.25 12.00 12.32 49 1.31 11.39 11.25 12.00 11.39 No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median January-17 52 0.74 10.38 February-17 51 0.65 March-17 52 April-17 Current Period 15
  16. Statistics Department Contents Expectation of the Secondary Market Annually Compounded Interest Rate of Fixed Rate TRY Denominated Government Domestic Debt Securities with Maturity of About Five Years (%) 12 - Month Ahead No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean January-17 57 0.82 11.03 11.00 11.50 11.03 February-17 56 0.65 10.94 11.00 11.00 10.97 March-17 58 0.72 11.04 11.00 11.00 11.10 April-17 57 0.68 10.93 11.00 11.00 11.01 May-17 51 0.75 10.90 11.00 11.00 10.85 June-17 60 0.54 10.54 10.60 11.00 10.54 July-17 57 0.70 10.75 10.75 11.00 10.69 August-17 50 0.61 10.72 10.75 11.00 10.72 September-17 56 0.65 10.80 10.80 10.50 10.73 October-17 48 0.71 11.12 11.10 11.50 11.11 November-17 58 1.07 11.92 12.00 12.00 11.92 December-17 58 1.05 12.19 12.00 12.00 12.09 January-18 53 0.90 11.97 12.00 12.00 11.85 Current Period 16
  17. Statistics Department Contents Expectation of the Secondary Market Annually Compounded Interest Rate of Fixed Rate TRY Denominated Government Domestic Debt Securities with Maturity of About Ten Years (%) 12 - Month Ahead No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean January-17 59 0.84 11.13 11.20 11.00 11.13 February-17 58 0.77 10.97 11.00 11.00 11.00 March-17 61 0.75 11.14 11.25 11.00 11.16 April-17 59 0.72 10.99 11.10 11.10 10.98 May-17 54 0.84 10.86 10.78 11.00 10.82 June-17 62 0.57 10.48 10.50 10.50 10.48 July-17 59 0.71 10.69 10.61 10.50 10.67 August-17 51 0.60 10.62 10.70 10.50 10.63 September-17 58 0.68 10.61 10.60 10.50 10.56 October-17 51 0.73 10.98 11.00 10.50 10.98 November-17 60 0.96 11.57 11.50 11.50 11.57 December-17 60 0.96 11.75 11.73 12.00 11.70 January-18 55 0.85 11.65 11.65 11.00 11.59 Current Period 17