Turkey: Survey Of Expectations - 19 January

Transcription

1. SURVEY OF EXPECTATIONS (January 2017) STATISTICS DEPARTMENT REAL SECTOR DATA DIVISION January 19, 2017
2. Statistics Department SURVEY OF EXPECTATIONS (January 2017) Inflation Expectations Monthly Inflation Expectations Graph 1. Monthly CPI Inflation Expectations % Current Month 1.60 Next Month 1.40 2nd Month Ahead 1.20 Graph 2. Monthly CPI Inflation Expectations by Survey Periods % November-16 1.60 December-16 1.40 January-17 1.20 1.00 1.00 0.80 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.60 0.20 0.40 0.00 0.20 0.00 January-2017 February-2017 March-2017 Annual Inflation Expectations Graph 3. Annual CPI Inflation Expectations % 9.00 8.50 End of the Current Year End of the Next 12 Months End of the Next 24 Months 8.00 7.50 7.00 6.50 6.00 2
3. Statistics Department Distributions of 12 and 24 Month Ahead Inflation Expectations 12-Month Ahead Inflation Expectations Graph 4 . Probability Distribution of 12-Month Ahead CPI Inflation Expectations % Graph 5. Distribution of Point Estimates for 12-Month Ahead CPI Inflation % 40 30 35 25 30 20 25 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 < 5.50 - 6.00 - 6.50 - 7.00 - 7.50 - 8.00 - 8.50 - 9.00 - >= 5.50 5.99 6.49 6.99 7.49 7.99 8.49 8.99 9.49 9.5 < 5.50 - 6.00 - 6.50 - 7.00 - 7.50 - 8.00 - 8.50 - 9.00 - >= 5.50 5.99 6.49 6.99 7.49 7.99 8.49 8.99 9.49 9.5 24-Month Ahead Inflation Expectations Graph 6. Probability Distribution of 24-Month Ahead CPI Inflation Expectations Graph 7. Distribution of Point Estimates for 24-Month Ahead CPI Inflation % % 70 50 45 60 40 50 35 30 40 25 20 30 15 20 10 10 5 0 < 4.5 4.50 - 5.49 5.50 - 6.49 6.50 - 7.49 >= 7.50 0 < 4.5 4.50 - 5.49 5.50 - 6.49 6.50 - 7.49 >= 7.50 3
4. Statistics Department Interest Rate Expectations Graph 8 . BIST Repo and Reverse Repo Overnight Interest Rate and Weighted Average Cost of the CBRT Funding % 12.00 11.00 BIST Repo and Reverse Repo Overnight Interest Rate (End of the Current Month) Weighted Average Cost of the CBRT Funding (Current Month) Graph 9. Interest Rate of GDDS with Maturity of About Three Months % December-16 10.00 10.00 8.00 9.00 6.00 8.00 4.00 7.00 2.00 6.00 0.00 Current Month Graph 10. Long-Term Interest Rate Expectations % 12.00 11.00 10.00 9.00 8.00 January-17 12.00 Interest Rate of GDDS with Maturity of About 5 Years (12 Months Ahead) Interest Rate of GDDS with Maturity of About 10 Years (12 Months Ahead) 1-Month Ahead 3-Month Ahead 6-Month 12-Month 24-Month Ahead Ahead Ahead Graph 11. One-week CBRT Repo Aution Interest Rate December-16 % January-17 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 Current Month 3-Month Ahead 6-Month Ahead 12-Month Ahead 24-Month Ahead 4
5. Statistics Department Exchange Rate Expectations Graph 12 . US Dollar Rate Expectations $/TL 4.00 3.80 End of the Current Month End of the Current Year End of the Next 12 Months 3.60 3.40 3.20 3.00 2.80 Current Account Balance Expectations Graph 13. Current Account Balance Expectations for 2017 -30.0 -32.0 -34.0 Graph 14. Current Account Balance Expectations for 2018 -30.0 -32.0 -34.0 -36.0 -36.0 -38.0 -38.0 -40.0 US Dollars (Billions) -40.0 US Dollars (Billions) 5
6. Statistics Department GDP Growth Rate Expectations Graph 15 . GDP Growth Rate Expectations for 2017 Graph 16. GDP Growth Rate Expectations for 2018 % 4.0 % 4.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0     The Survey of Expectations is conducted on a monthly basis with a panel of 110 participants consisting of 79 experts from the financial sector, 17 experts from the real sector, 9 experts from foreign financial institutions and 5 professionals.      Expectations denote the modified mean for each variable. The methodology and results are available at the web site http://www.tcmb.gov.tr under the menu “Statistics/Tendency Surveys/Survey of Expectations” . Historical results are also released under the menu “Statistics/Statistical Data (EDDS)/Surveys” .     The survey results are compiled from the responses of the participants and do not reflect the views or predictions of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. For any views and suggestions: E-mail: beklenti.anketi@tcmb.gov .tr 6
7. Statistics Department Survey of Expectations Aggregated Results (*) (January 2017) Monthly Inflation What is your expectation of the CPI? (%) Annual Inflation Current Month Next Month 2nd Month Ahead (January-December) End of the Year End of the Next 12 Months End of the Next 24 Months 1.44 0.69 0.76 8.48 8.19 7.59 End of the Current Month 3.7675 End of the Year End of the Next 12 Months 3.9553 What is your expectation of the US Dollar rate in the interbank foreign exchange market? (Turkish Lira-TRY) (Please indicate in four decimals) 3.8619 Current Year Next Year (January-December) (January-December) What is your expectation of the annual current account balance? ( (+)Surplus, (-)Deficit ) ($ Billion) -35.4 -38.2 Next Year Current Year (January-December) (January-December) What is your expectation of the GDP growth rate? 2.9 ( (+) Increase, (-) Decrease ) (%) 3.6 What is your expectation of the weighted average cost of the CBRT funding? (%) End of the Current Month 9.13 What is your expectation of the Borsa Istanbul (BIST) Repo and Reverse Repo Market overnight interest rate? (%) End of the Current Month 9.55 End of the Current Month 3-Month Ahead 6-Month Ahead 12-Month Ahead 24-Month Ahead 8.55 8.87 8.95 8.71 8.43 End of the Current Month 1-Month Ahead 3-Month Ahead 6-Month Ahead 12-Month Ahead 10.39 10.53 10.50 10.38 10.11 What is your expectation of one-week CBRT repo auction interest rate? (%) What is your expectation of Annually Compounded Interest Rate of TRY Denominated GDDS with Maturity of About Three Months? (% ) 24-Month Ahead 9.79 What is your expectation of the Secondary Market Annually Compounded Interest Rate of Fixed Rate TRY Denominated GDDS with Maturity of About Five Years? (%) 12-Month Ahead 11.03 What is your expectation of the Secondary Market Annually Compounded Interest Rate of Fixed Rate TRY Denominated GDDS with Maturity of About Ten Years? (%) 12-Month Ahead 11.13 (*) The figures denote the modified means. 7