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Turkey - Main Economic Developments

IM Research
By IM Research
8 years ago
Turkey - Main Economic Developments

Ard, Mal, PLS, Participation

Sukuk

Banking

International Trade

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  1. Main Economic Developments April 15 , 2016 Research and Monetary Policy Department Daily data are updated on every Thursdays (previous office day if it is a holiday). Other data are updated on the announcement day at 16.00
  2. Contents Inflation Developments p . 3-13 International Developments p.14-30 Labor Market Developments p.31-36 Balance of Payments Developments p.37-53 Public Finance Developments p.54-60 Financial Intermediation and Loans Developments p.61-76 Financial Markets Developments p.77-87 Economic Activity Developments p.88-105 2
  3. Inflation Developments 3
  4. CPI and Special CPI Indicators (Annual Percentage Change) 14 CPI H I 14 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 Source: TURKSTAT. Last Observation: March 2016. 4
  5. CPI and Subgroups (Annual Percentage Change) 35 Services Core goods Food Energy 35 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. Food: Food and alcoholic beverages. Core goods: Goods excluding food, energy, alcoholic beverages , tobacco and gold Last Observation: March 2016. 5
  6. Services Inflation (Annual Percentage Change) Other Communication Transport Restaurants and hotels Rent 24 24 19 19 14 14 9 9 4 4 -1 -1 -6 -6 Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. Last Observation: March 2016. 6
  7. Inflation Trend Main Inflation Indicators (Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Change, 3-Month Average, Annualized) H I 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. Last Observation: March 2016. 7
  8. Inflation Trend Services Prices (Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Change, 3-Month Average, Annualized) 16 16 14 14 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. Last Observation: March 2016. 8
  9. Inflation Trend Core Goods Prices (Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Change, 3-Month Average, Annualized) 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. Core goods: Goods excluding food, energy, alcoholic beverages , tobacco and gold Last Observation: March 2016. 9
  10. Inflation Trend Diffusion Index (Seasonally Adjusted, 3-Month Average) CPI H 0,6 0,60 0,5 0,50 0,4 0,40 0,3 0,30 0,2 0,20 0,1 0,10 0,0 0,00 Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. Diffusion index is calculated as the ratio of the number of items with increasing prices minus the number of items with decreasing prices to total number of items within a given month. Last Observation: March 2016. 10
  11. Contribution to Annual Inflation (Percentage Points) 14 Energy Services Core goods Food Alcoholic bev. tobacoo and gold 14 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. Food: Food and alcoholic beverages. Core goods: Goods excluding food, energy, alcoholic beverages , tobacco and gold Last Observation: March 2016. 11
  12. Domestic PPI (Annual Percentage Change) 25 Domestic PPI Manufacturing Industry Prices 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 Source: TURKSTAT. Last Observation: March 2016. 12
  13. Inflation Expectations (Annual Percentage Change) 10 24 Months 12 Months 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 Source: CBRT Last Observation: April 2016. 13
  14. International Developments 14
  15. Global Inflation (Annual Percentage Change) 10 Advanced Countries Developing Countries 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 Advanced Countries: USA, Euro Area, Japan, UK, Canada, S.Korea, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Israel. Developing Countries: China, Brazil, India, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Poland, Indonesia, S.Africa, Argentina, Thailand, Cezch Rep., Colombia, Hungary, Romania, Philippines, Ukraine, Vietnam, Chile, Peru, Egypt, Morocco. Source: Bloomberg, CBRT. Last Observation: February 2016. 15
  16. Core Inflation (Annual Percentage Change) Developing Countries Advanced Countries 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 Advanced Countries: USA, Euro Area, Japan, UK, Canada, S.Korea, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Israel. Developing Countries: China, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Poland, Indonesia, S.Africa, Thailand, Cezch Rep., Colombia, Hungary, Romania, Chile, Peru. Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, CBRT. Last Observation: February 2016. 16
  17. Global Growth (Annual Percentage Change) 10 Advanced Countries Developing Countries Developing Countries excluding China and India 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 -6 -6 Advanced Countries: USA, Euro Area, Japan, UK, Canada, S.Korea, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Israel. Developing Countries: China, Brazil, India, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Poland, Indonesia, S.Africa, Argentina, Thailand, Malaysia, Cezch Rep., Colombia, Hungary, Romania, Philippines, Ukraine, Chile, Peru, Morocco. Source: Bloomberg, CBRT. Last Observation: 2015 Q4 17
  18. Global Policy Rates (Percent) Advanced Countries 14 Developing Countries 14 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 Advanced Countries: USA, Euro Area, Japan, UK, Canada, S.Korea, Australia, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Hong Kong, Israel, New Zealand. Developing Countries: Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, Poland, Indonesia, S.Africa, Thailand, Cezch Rep., Colombia, Hungary, Romania, Philippines. Source: Bloomberg, CBRT. Last Observation: February 2016. 18
  19. PMI (Manufacturing) Eurozone Japan China US 50 65 65 60 60 55 55 50 50 45 45 40 40 35 35 30 30 25 25 Source: Markit. Last Observation: March 2016. 19
  20. Markit Global PMI Indices 70 Manufacturing New Export Orders (Manufacturing) Services 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 Source: Markit. Last Observation: March 2016. 20
  21. US House Prices (January 2005 = 100) (Seasonally Adjusted) 130 Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (USA nationwide) 130 120 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 Source: Bloomberg. Last Observation: January 2016. 21
  22. Unemployment Rates (Percent) 14 US UK Japan Eurozone 14 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 Source: Bloomberg. Last Observation: March 2016. 22
  23. Commodity Prices S &P-GS Indices (January 2005 = 100) 350 Energy Industrial Metals Agriculture Headline 350 300 300 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 Source: Bloomberg. Last Observation: 13 April 2016. 23
  24. Commodity Prices S &P-GS Indices (Annual Percentage Change) 120 Headline Energy Industrial Metals Agriculture 120 70 70 20 20 -30 -30 -80 -80 Source: Bloomberg. Last Observation: 13 April 2016. 24
  25. Risk Appetite VIX 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 Source : Bloomberg. Last Observation: 08 April 2016. 25
  26. Spread (OIS Spread) (Percent) 4,0 Euro US Dollar 4,0 3,5 3,5 3,0 3,0 2,5 2,5 2,0 2,0 1,5 1,5 1,0 1,0 0,5 0,5 0,0 0,0 -0,5 -0,5 Source: Bloomberg. Last Observation: 13 April 2016. 26
  27. GIIPS Countries : Yield Spread (over Bunds) Portugal Spain Italy Greece (right axis) 18 36 16 32 14 28 12 24 10 20 8 16 6 12 4 8 2 4 0 0 Source: Bloomberg. GIIPS: Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain Last Observation: 13 April 2016. 27
  28. GIIPS Countries : Unemployment (Percent) Portugal Ireland Spain Italy Greece 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Source: Bloomberg. GIIPS: Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain Last Observation: March 2016. 28
  29. Portfolio Flows (Billion US dollars) All developing countries, weekly fund flows 12 10 Equities Bonds 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 -14 -16 Source:EPFR. Last Observation: 06 April 2016. 29
  30. Portfolio Flows (Billion US dollars) All developing countries, 52-week cumulative 95 95 Bonds 75 Equities 75 55 55 35 35 15 15 -5 -5 -25 -25 -45 -45 -65 -65 -85 -85 -105 -105 Source: EPFR. Last Observation: 06 April 2016. 30
  31. Labor Market Developments 31
  32. Unemployment Rate (Percent) Unemployment Rate (%) 18 Non-farm Unemployment Rate (%) 18 16 16 14 14 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. Last Observation: January 2016. 32
  33. Employment (Thousand People) 24000 Non-farm Employment Farm Employment (right axis) 6600 6300 22000 6000 20000 5700 18000 5400 5100 16000 4800 14000 4500 12000 Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. 4200 Last Observation: January 2016. 33
  34. Participation Rate (Percent) Participation Rate % 52 Non-farm Labor Force/Population 15+ (%) (right axis) 44 51 50 49 42 40 48 47 38 46 45 44 36 34 43 42 Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT 32 Last Observation: January 2016. 34
  35. Employment by Sectors (Thousand People) 2200 Construction Industrial (right axis) 5800 5500 2000 5200 1800 4900 1600 4600 4300 1400 4000 1200 3700 1000 Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. 3400 Last Observation: January 2016. 35
  36. Employment by Sectors (Thousand People) Services 15000 14000 13000 12000 11000 10000 9000 8000 Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. Last Observation: January 2016. 36
  37. Balance of Payments Developments 37
  38. Foreign Trade 25 23 25 Export Export (excluding gold) Import Import (excluding gold) Import (excluding gold and energy) 23 21 21 19 19 17 17 15 15 13 13 11 11 9 9 7 7 5 5 Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. Last Observation: February 2016. 38 Thousands (Seasonally Adjusted, 3-Month Moving Average, Billion USD)
  39. Foreign Trade 300 300 Export Export (excluding gold) Import Import (excluding gold) Import (excluding gold and energy) 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. Last Observation: February 2016. 39 Thousands (12-month cumulative, Billion USD)
  40. Real Import and Real Export (Index 2010=100, Seasonally Adjusted, 3-month Moving Average) 140 140 Export Export (excluding gold) Import Import (excluding gold) Import (excluding gold and energy) 130 130 120 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. Last Observation: February 2016. 40
  41. Real Import and Real Export (Index 2010=100, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly) 140 130 140 Export Import Import (excluding gold and energy) Export (excluding gold) Import (excluding gold) 130 120 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 Source: TURKSTAT. Last Observation: 2015 Q4. 41
  42. Current Account Balance (Seasonally Adjusted, Billion USD) Current Account Current Account (excluding energy and gold) Current Account (excluding gold) 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 -6 -6 -8 -8 -10 -10 Source: CBRT. Last Observation: February 2016. 42
  43. Current Account Balance (Seasonally Adjusted, 3-month Moving Average, Billion USD) Current Account Current Account (excluding energy and gold) Current Account (excluding gold) 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 -6 -6 -8 -8 -10 -10 Source: CBRT. Last Observation: February 2016. 43
  44. Current Account Balance (12-month Cumulative, Billion USD) Current Account Current Account (excluding energy and gold) Current Account (excluding gold) 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 -40 -40 -50 -50 -60 -60 -70 -70 -80 -80 -90 -90 Source: CBRT. Last Observation: February 2016. 44
  45. Current Account Balance 0 0 -10 -1 -20 -2 -30 -3 -40 -4 -50 -5 -60 -6 -70 -7 12-month cumulative -80 Source : CBRT. 3-month moving average (Seas. Adj., right axis) -8 Last Observation : February 2016. 45 Thousands ( Excluding Gold, Billion USD)
  46. Current Account Balance 10 1 0 0 -10 -1 -20 -2 -30 -3 -40 -4 -50 -5 -60 -6 -70 -80 Source : CBRT. 12-month cumulative 3-month moving average (Seas. Adj., right axis) -7 -8 Last Observation : February 2016. 46 Thousands (Billion USD)
  47. Current Account Balance (Percent of GDP) Current Account Current Account (excluding energy and gold) Current Account (excluding gold) 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 -6 -6 -8 -8 -10 -10 -12 -12 Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. Last Observation: 2015 Q4. 47
  48. Main Sources of External Finance * (3-month cumulative, Million USD) Portfolio and Short Term FDI and Long Term CAD 35 35 30 30 25 20 25 20 15 15 10 10 5 0 -5 5 0 -10 -5 -15 -10 Source: CBRT. *Long term capital movements are sum of banking and real sectors’ long term net credit and bonds issued by banks and the Treasury. Short term capital movements are sum of banking and real sectors' short term net credit and deposits in banks. Last Observation: February 2016. 48
  49. Main Sources of External Finance * (12-month cumulative, Billion USD) Portfolio and Short Term 100 80 FDI and Long Term CAD 100 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 -20 -40 Source: CBRT. 0 -20 *Long term capital movements are sum of banking and real sectors’ long term net credit and bonds issued by banks and the Treasury. Short term capital movements are sum of banking and real sectors' short term net credit and deposits in banks. Last Observation: February 2016. 49
  50. Real Exchange Rate CPI Based Real Effective Exchange Rate (2003=100) 130 130 120 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 80 80 Source: CBRT. Last Observation: March 2016. 50
  51. Real Exchange Rate CPI Based Real Effective Exchange Rate * (2003=100) 4,9 4,9 4,8 4,8 4,7 4,7 4,6 4,6 4,5 4,5 4,4 4,4 Source: CBRT. *Real effective exchange rate, natural logarithm. Last Observation: March 2016. 51
  52. Real Exchange Rate CPI Developed Countries Based Real Effective Exchange Rate * (2003=100) 5,0 5,0 4,9 4,9 4,8 4,8 4,7 4,7 4,6 4,6 4,5 4,5 4,4 4,4 Source: CBRT. *Real effective exchange rate, natural logarithm Last Observation: March 2016. 52
  53. Real Exchange Rate CPI Developing Countries Based Real Effective Exchange Rate * (2003=100) 4,8 4,8 4,7 4,7 4,6 4,6 4,5 4,5 4,4 4,4 4,3 4,3 4,2 4,2 4,1 4,1 4,0 4,0 Source: CBRT. *Real effective exchange rate, natural logarithm. Last Observation: March 2016. 53
  54. Public Finance Developments 54
  55. Contributions To Primary Expenditures (12-Month Cumulative, Contribution To Annual Percentage Change) Capital Expenditures Current Transfers Good and Services Purchases Compensation of Employees Primary Expenditures 26 26 22 22 18 18 14 14 10 10 6 6 2 2 -2 -2 Source: Ministry of Finance. * Principal items have been selected. Last Observation: February 2016. 55
  56. Contributions To Tax Revenues (12-Month Cumulative, Contribution To Annual Percentage Change) VAT on Imports Special Consumption Tax Domestic VAT Corporation Tax Income Tax Tax Revenues 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 Source: Ministry of Finance. * Principal items have been selected. Last Observation : February 2016. 56
  57. Central Government Budget Revenues and Expenditures (12-Month Cumulative, As Percent of GDP) Budget Revenues Primary Expenditures 26 26 24 24 22 22 20 20 18 18 16 16 14 14 Source: Ministry of Finance, Medium Term Program (2016-2018). * Medium Term Program (2016-2018) target. Last Observation : 2015 Q4. 57
  58. Central Government Budget Balance (12-Month Cumulative, As Percent of GDP) Budget Balance Primary Balance 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 -6 -6 Source: Ministry of Finance, Medium Term Program (2016-2018). * Medium Term Program (2016-2018) target. Last Observation : 2015 Q4. 58
  59. Program Defined Primary Budget Balance (12-Month Cumulative, As Percent of GDP) Primary Budget Balance (Program Definition) 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 Source: Ministry of Finance, Undersecreteriat of Treasury Medium Term Program (2016-2018). * Medium Term Program (2016-2018) target. Last Observation: 2015 Q4. 59
  60. EU Defined Public Debt (As Percent of GDP) Public Debt Stock 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 Source: Undersecreteriat of Treasury, Medium Term Program (2016-2018). * Medium Term Program (2016-2018) target. Last Observation: 2015 Q4. 60
  61. Financial Intermediation and Loans Developments 61
  62. Total Loans * (Year on Year Change, Percent) 45 45 40 40 Total Loan Growth 35 35 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 Total Loan Growth (FX adjusted) 10 5 5 0 0 Source: CBRT. *Total banking sector (Including participation banks) Credit cards included NPLs Excluded Last Observation: 08 April 2016. 62
  63. Total Loans * (Year on Year Change, Percent) Consumer Loans Commercial Loans (FX adjusted) 45 45 40 40 35 35 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 Source: CBRT. *Total banking sector (Including participation banks) NPLs Excluded Last Observation: 08 April 2016. 63
  64. Total Loans * (Adjusted for Exchange Rate, 13-Week Average, Annualized+, Percent) 50 50 45 45 40 40 35 35 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 Source: CBRT. +The annual growth rate of credit stock is calculated as the 52nd power of 13-week moving average of weekly growth rate. *Total banking sector (Including participation banks) Credit cards included NPLs Excluded Last Observation: 08 April 2016. 64
  65. Commercial and Consumer Loans * (Adjusted for Exchange Rate, 13-Week Average, Annualized+, Percent) Commercial Loans 60 Consumer Loans 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 Source: CBRT. -10 +The annual growth rate of credit stock is calculated as the 52nd power of 13-week moving average of weekly growth rate. *Total banking sector (Including participation banks) NPLs Excluded Last Observation: 08 April 2016. 65
  66. Consumer Loans * (13-Week Average, Annualized+, Percent) Housing 50 Other Automobile 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 Source: CBRT. +The annual growth rate of credit stock is calculated as the 52nd power of 13-week moving average of weekly growth rate. *Total banking sector (Including participation banks) NPLs Excluded Last Observation: 08 April 2016. 66
  67. Total Loans * (Adjusted for Exchange Rate, 13-Week Average, Annualized+, Percent) Total Loans (2016) 40 Total Loans (2007-2015) 40 35 35 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 Source: CBRT. +The annual growth rate of credit stock is calculated as the 52nd power of 13-week moving average of weekly growth rate. *Total banking sector (Including participation banks) Credit cards included NPLs Excluded Last Observation: 08 April 2016. 67
  68. Consumer Loans * (13-Week Average, Annualized+, Percent) Consumer loans (2016) 40 Consumer loans (2007- 2015) 40 35 35 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 Source: CBRT. +The annual growth rate of credit stock is calculated as the 52nd power of 13-week moving average of weekly growth rate. *Total banking sector (Including participation banks) NPLs Excluded Last Observation: 08 April 2016. 68
  69. Commercial Loans * (Adjusted for Exchange Rate, 13-Week Average, Annualized+, Percent) Commercial loans (2016) 40 Commercial loans (2007-2015) 40 35 35 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 Source: CBRT. +The annual growth rate of credit stock is calculated as the 52nd power of 13-week moving average of weekly growth rate. *Total banking sector (Including participation banks) NPLs Excluded Last Observation: 08 April 2016. 69
  70. Non-Performing Loans (Percent) Total Loans Commercial Loans Consumer Loans 7,0 7,0 6,5 6,5 6,0 6,0 5,5 5,5 5,0 5,0 4,5 4,5 4,0 4,0 3,5 3,5 3,0 3,0 2,5 2,5 2,0 2,0 Source: CBRT. Last Observation: 08 April 2016. 70
  71. Bad Cheque Ratio (Percent) Bad Cheque Ratio (number) 12 Bad Cheque Ratio (amount) 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 Source: CBRT. Last Observation: March 2016. 71
  72. Loan Rates (Flow, Annualized, Percent, 4 Week-Average) 26 26 Automobile Housing Commercial Other 23 23 20 20 17 17 14 14 11 11 8 8 5 5 Source: CBRT. Last Observation: 01 April 2016. 72
  73. TL Commercial Loan Rate (Flow, 4-Week Average, Percent) 24 Commercial Loan Rate Commercial Loan Rate-Deposit Rate Spread (right axis) 8 22 7 20 6 18 5 16 4 14 3 12 2 10 1 8 0 Source: CBRT. Last Observation: 01 April 2016. 73
  74. TL Commercial Loan Rate (Flow, 4-Week Average, Percent) 18 Commercial Loan Rate Commercial Loan Rate (Excluding Corporate Overdraft Account and Corporate Credit Cards) 18 17 17 16 16 15 15 14 14 13 13 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 Source: CBRT. Last Observation: 01 April 2016. 74
  75. TL Commercial Loan Rate (Flow, 4-Week Average, Percent) 7 Commercial Loan Rate-Deposit Rate Spread 7 Commercial Loan Rate (Excluding Corporate Overdraft Account and Corporate Credit Cards) - Deposit Rate Spread 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 Source: CBRT. Last Observation: 01 April 2016. 75
  76. Indebtedness and Leverage Ratios of Non-Financial Companies Listed on BIST Liabilities and Equity to Total Assets (Conglomerates are excluded, for 271 firms, Percentage Share) 1, 2 TL Liabilities/Total Assets 27.9 % Equity/Total Assets 42.0 % Euro Liabilities/Total Assets 11.5 % USD Liabilities/Total Assets 18.2 % Other FX Liabilities/Total Assets 0.4 % Source: FINNET, Public Disclosure Platform (1) Including data for 271 non-financial corporations listed on BIST. (2) Non- financial companies using FX functional currency, financial institutions and conglomerates are excluded from this sample. . Last Observation: September 2015. 76
  77. Financial Markets Developments 77
  78. Average Funding Cost of CBRT Outstanding Value (Billion TL) 120 100 CBRT Average Fund Rate (Right Axis, Percent) 14 12 10 80 8 60 6 40 4 20 0 Source: CBRT. 2 0 Last Observation: 13 April 2016. 78
  79. BIST Repo-Reverse Repo Overnight Market Rates (Percent) Interest Rate Corridor Repo-Reverse Repo Market Overnight Rates (5 Day MA) 14 14 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 Last Observation: 13 April 2016. Source: BIST, CBRT. 79
  80. CBRT Rates and BIST Overnight Rates (Percent) Interest Rate Corridor CBRT Average Funding Cost (5 day MA) 1 Week Repo Rate Interbank Overnight Repo Rates (5 day MA) 14 14 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 Source: CBRT. Last Observation: 13 April 2016. 80
  81. Turkish Lira and Emerging Market Currencies (01.11.2011=1, values vis-a-vis USD) 1,75 Turkey Average of Emerging Economies Turkey/Emerging Countries 1,75 1,70 1,70 1,65 1,65 1,60 1,60 1,55 1,55 1,50 1,50 1,45 1,45 1,40 1,40 1,35 1,35 1,30 1,30 1,25 1,25 1,20 1,20 1,15 1,15 1,10 1,10 1,05 1,05 1,00 1,00 0,95 0,95 Source: Bloomberg, CBRT. Emerging market currencies include Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, South Africa, Indonesia, South Korea, Romania, Malaysia and Philippines against USD. Last Observation: 13 April 2016. 81
  82. Implied FX Volatility (1 month) 35 35 30 30 Turkey 25 25 Emerging Countries 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 Source: Bloomberg. Emerging market currencies include Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Poland, Czech Republic, South Africa, Indonesia, Romania against USD. Last Observation: 13 April 2016. 82
  83. Implied FX Volatility (12 months) 30 25 30 Emerging Countries Turkey 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 Source: Bloomberg. Emerging market currencies include Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Poland, Czech Republic, South Africa, Indonesia, Romania against USD. Last Observation: 13 April 2016. 83
  84. Currency Basket and EMBI 3 ,30 Currency Basket EMBI+ Turkey (right axis) 500 3,20 3,10 450 3,00 2,90 2,80 400 2,70 2,60 350 2,50 2,40 300 2,30 2,20 250 2,10 2,00 1,90 200 1,80 1,70 Source: Bloomberg, CBRT. 150 Last Observation: 13 April 2016. 84
  85. EMBI EMBI Europe EMBI Turkey EMBI Latin America EMBI Asia 800 800 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 Source : Bloomberg. Last Observation: 13 April 2016. 85
  86. Relative EMBI (03.01.2012=1) EMBI Europe EMBI Latin America EMBI Asia EMBI Turkey 1,70 1,70 1,60 1,60 1,50 1,50 1,40 1,40 1,30 1,30 1,20 1,20 1,10 1,10 1,00 1,00 0,90 0,90 0,80 0,80 0,70 0,70 0,60 0,60 0,50 0,50 0,40 0,40 Source: Bloomberg. Last Observation: 13 April 2016. 86
  87. Yields Across Maturities (Percent) 0.5 year 1 year 2 year 4 year 10 year 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 Source: Bloomberg. Last Observation: 13 April 2016. 87
  88. Economic Activity Developments 88
  89. Annual GDP Growth (Percentage) 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -15 -20 -20 Source: TURKSTAT. Last Observation: 2015 Q4. 89
  90. Contribution to Annual GDP Growth (Percentage Point) 25 Change in Inventories Net Exports Final Domestic Demand GDP 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -15 -20 -20 -25 -25 Source: TURKSTAT. Last Observation: 2015 Q4. 90
  91. GDP 35 35 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 Source : TURKSTAT. Last Observation: 2015 Q4. 91 Millions (1998 Constant Prices, Billion TL, Seasonally Adjusted)
  92. Final Domestic Demand and Imports (Seasonally Adjusted, Index 2008Q1=100) 130 Final Domestic Demand Imports of Goods and Services 130 120 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. Last Observation: 2015 Q4. 92
  93. Imports and Exports (1998 constant prices, billion TL, seasonally adjusted) Exports of Goods and Services 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. Last Observation: 2015 Q4. 93 Millions Imports of Goods and Services 10
  94. Quarterly Growth of GDP (Seasonally Adjusted, Percentage) 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 Source: TURKSTAT. Last Observation: 2015 Q4. 94
  95. Industrial Production Index (Seasonally Adjusted, Quarterly Average, 2010=100) 140 125 120 130 115 120 110 105 110 100 100 95 90 90 85 80 Source: TURKSTAT. 80 Last Observation: February 2016. 95
  96. Import Quantity Index (Seasonally Adjusted, Quarterly Average, 2010=100) 140 140 130 130 120 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. Last Observation: February 2016. 96
  97. Capital Goods Production and Imports (Seasonally Adjusted, Quarterly Average, 2010=100) 140 Capital Goods Imports Capital Goods Production (rhs) 150 140 130 130 120 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. 60 Last Observation: For Production February 2016. For Imports February 2016. 97
  98. Intermediate Goods Production and Imports (Seasonally Adjusted, Quarterly Average, 2010=100) Intermediate Goods Imports 145 Intermediate Goods Production (rhs) 130 125 135 120 125 115 110 115 105 105 100 95 95 90 85 85 75 80 Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. Last Observation: For Production February 2016. For Imports February 2016. 98
  99. Consumption Goods Production and Imports (Seasonally Adjusted, Quarterly Average, 2010=100) 130 Consumption Goods Imports Consumption Goods Production (rhs) 140 120 130 110 100 120 90 110 80 70 100 60 90 50 40 Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. 80 Last Observation: For Production February 2016. For Imports February 2016. 99
  100. Capacity Utilization Rate (Seasonally Adjusted, Percentage) 85 85 80 80 75 75 70 70 65 65 60 60 55 55 Source: CBRT. Last Observation: March 2016. 100
  101. Export and Domestic Orders Expectations Over the Next Three Months (Increase-Decrease, Seasonally adjusted) Export Domestic 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 Source: CBRT. Last Observation: March 2016. 101
  102. PMI (Seasonally Adjusted) 60 60 55 55 50 50 45 45 40 40 35 35 30 30 Source: Markit. Last Observation: March 2016. 102
  103. Real Sector Confidence Index (Seasonally Adjusted) 125 125 115 115 105 105 95 95 85 85 75 75 65 65 55 55 Source: CBRT. Last Observation: March 2016. 103
  104. Investment Tendency (Increase-Decrease, Seasonally Adjusted) 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 -40 -40 -50 -50 -60 -60 Source: CBRT. *Question number 23 from Business Tendency Survey: Compared to the last 12 months, how do you expect your fixed investment expenditure to change over the next 12 months? Last Observation: March 2016. 104
  105. Consumer Confidence Indices 130 120 Bloomberg HT TURKSTAT-CBRT (rhs) 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 50 Source: Bloomberg HT, TURKSTAT, CBRT 60 50 Last Observation: For TURKSTAT –CBRT March 2016. For Bloomberg HT March 2016. 105
  106. Main Economic Developments April 15 , 2016 Research and Monetary Policy Department