Turkey: Financial Accounts Report - Q2 2017

Transcription

1. Financial Accounts Report 2017-II
2. Contents I . Financial Accounts of the Turkish Economy ........................................3 II. Households ...............................................................................................5 III. Non-Financial Corporations .................................................................7 BOX- A Reflection of Financial Accounts: From-Whom-To-Whom Matrices ............................................................10 Compilation Methods ............................................................................10 Strengths and Weaknesses ..................................................................11 International Practices ..........................................................................12 Turkey’s Practice .....................................................................................12 IV. Total Debt of Resident Sectors ........................................................15 V. Conclusion ..............................................................................................16 Statistics Department Monetary and Financial Data Division parasal.veriler@tcmb.gov.tr
3. CBRT | Financial Accounts Report | 2017-II I. Financial Accounts of the Turkish Economy In 2017Q2, total financial assets of the Turkish economy were TRY 10,080 billion while its liabilities were TRY 11,638 billion. The largest contribution to the financing of the domestic economy came from the rest of the world and households sectors. Non-financial corporations and the general government ran a financial deficit and borrowed from other sectors. Financial corporations maintained their balanced position and followed a flat trend due to their financial intermediation activities (Table 1, Chart 1). Table 1. Net Financial Worth by Sectors (2017Q2, TRY billion)1,2 Total Economy Non-Financial Corporations CBRT Insurance Other Monetary Financial Corporations Financial Intermediaries and Pension Institutions(*) and Auxiliaries Funds General Government Households Rest of the World Financial Assets 10,080 4,284 582 2,926 157 231 665 1,235 661 Liabilities 11,638 6,266 566 2,854 165 210 1,037 539 2,284 Financial Net Worth -1,558 -1,982 71 -8 21 -373 696 1,623 16 Source: CBRT Chart 1. Ratio of Net Financial Worth to GDP by Sectors (*) (percent)2 100% Non-Financial Corporations Financial Corporations General Government Households Rest of the World 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% -100% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-I 2015-II 2015-III 2015-IV 2016-I 2016-II 2016-III 2016-IV 2017-I 2017-II Source: CBRT, TURKSTAT 1 Pursuant to the methodology, there is a difference between the net financial worth of total domestic economy and rest of the world since there is no counterpart sector for monetary gold. The rest of the world has been reported based on residency, so as to be compatible with the International Investment Position Statistics. 2 Other Monetary Financial Institutions are composed of deposit-taking corporations (banks) and money market funds, while the households sector also covers non-profit institutions serving households. 3
4. CBRT | Financial Accounts Report | 2017-II Non-Financial Corporations Financial Corporations Households General Government Insurance, Pension and Standardized Guarantee Schemes 2017-II 2017-I Debt Securities Financial Derivatives Currency and Deposits Source: CBRT, TURKSAT 2016-III 2010 2017-I 2017-II 2016-IV 2016-II 2016-III 2016-I 2015-III 2015-IV 2015-I -500 2015-II -400 -500 2014 -300 -400 2013 -200 -300 2012 -200 2011 -100 2010 0 -100 2016-IV 100 0 2016-I 200 100 2016-II 300 200 2015-IV 400 300 2015-II 400 2015-III 500 2014 500 2015-I Chart 3. Distribution of Financial Instruments-Total Economy, Ratio to GDP (*) (percent) 2013 Chart 2: Ratio of Financial Assets and Liabilities to GDP by Sectors (percent) 2 2012 As for the financial instrument distribution, the currency and deposits item and the loans item had the largest weight in both assets and liabilities (Chart 3). 2011 An analysis of financial assets and liabilities by sectors as of the recent period reveals that the non-financial corporations sector was the biggest sector on the liabilities side as well as on the assets side (Chart 2). Shares and Other Equity Other Accounts Receivable/Payable Loans Source: CBRT, TURKSTAT (*) Monetary gold and SDR have been excluded. An analysis of flow data suggests that in the second quarter of 2017, net borrowing by non-financial corporations and the general government increased whereas net borrowing by other sectors decreased. Meanwhile, there was a rise in the net valuation of the general government and the rest of the world whereas the net valuation in other sectors declined. Consequently, there were negative net flows in financial and non-financial corporations (Table 2). Table 2. Net Flow by Sectors (2017Q2, TRY billion)2 Transaction (Assets) Transaction (Liabilities) Valuation and Valuation and Other Other Changes Changes (Fin. Assets) (Liabilities) Net Flow Non-Financial Corporations 214 371 523 536 -169 Financial Corporations 108 88 29 82 -33 General Government 30 49 22 -2 6 Households 43 17 -10 0 15 Rest of the World 93 -38 8 -51 190 Source: CBRT 4
5. CBRT | Financial Accounts Report | 2017-II II. Households In the second quarter of 2017, both financial assets and liabilities of households increased quarter-on-quarter. These increases originated from deposit transactions in assets and largely from loan transactions in liabilities (Charts 4 and 5). Chart 4. Financial Assets (transaction, TRY billion) Chart 5. Liabilities (transaction, TRY billion) 60 25 50 20 40 15 30 10 20 Currency and Deposits Debt Securities Loans Shares and Other Equity Other Accounts Receivable Financial Assets Insurance, Pension and Standardized Guarantee Schemes 2017-II 2017-I 2016-IV 2016-III 2016-II 2016-I 2015-IV 2015-III 2015-I 2017-II 2017-I 2016-IV 2016-III 2016-II 2016-I 2015-IV -5 -20 2015-III -10 2015-III 0 2015-I 0 2015-III 5 10 Currency and Deposits Debt Securities Shares and Other Equity Insurance, Pension and Other Accounts Receivable Standardized Guarantee Schemes Liabilities Financial Derivatives Loans Financial Derivatives 2017-I Currency and Deposits Debt Securities Currency and Deposits Debt Securities Insurance, Pension and Standardized Guarantee Schemes Other Accounts Receivable Insurance, Pension and Standardized Guarantee Schemes Other Accounts Receivable Loans Shares and Other Equity Loans Shares and Other Equity Financial Derivatives Source: CBRT Financial Derivatives Source: CBRT 2017-II 2016-IV 2016-II 2016-III 2016-I 2015-IV 2015-II 2010 2017-I 2017-II 2016-IV 0% 2016-III 10% 0% 2016-I 20% 10% 2016-II 30% 20% 2015-IV 40% 30% 2015-II 50% 40% 2015-III 60% 50% 2015-I 70% 60% 2014 70% 2013 80% 2012 90% 80% 2011 100% 90% 2010 100% 2015-III Chart 7. Breakdown of Financial Liabilities by Instruments (percent) 2015-I Chart 6. Breakdown of Financial Assets by Instruments (percent) 2014 total financial investments decreased while that of deposits was flat (Chart 6). Meanwhile, almost all of the liabilities were composed of loans (Chart 7). 2013 The primary instrument in household financial assets was deposits with a share of approximately 77 percent, followed by shares and other equity. During the data period, the share of the shares and other equity item in 2012 Source: CBRT 2011 Source: CBRT 5
6. CBRT | Financial Accounts Report | 2017-II Chart 8. Change in Net Assets of Households (TRY billion) Chart 9. Household Debt (*) (percent) 1400 60 60% 1200 50 50% 1000 40 800 40% 30 600 30% 20 400 20% 10 200 10% 0 0 2017-II 2017-I 2016-IV 2016-III 2016-II 2016-I 2015-IV 2015-III 2015-I 2015-II Financial Assets Liabilities Valuation, Financial Assets Changes in net assets (right axis) Debt/Total Financial Assets 2017-II 2017-I 2016-IV 2016-II 2016-I 2016-III -20 -600 2015-IV -400 2015-III 2015-I -10 2015-II 0% -200 Debt/Disposable Income Debt/GDP Source: CBRT, TURKSTAT (*) Household debt is composed of loans. Source: CBRT In the second quarter of 2017, the household net financial worth increased by TRY 14 billion quarter-on-quarter (Chart 8). Household indebtedness indicators suggest that the ratio of household debt to GDP preserved its course at around 18 percent, and the ratios of debt to disposable income and to total financial assets remained flat in 2017Q2 (Chart 9). Chart 10. Household Liabilities/GDP, Comparison (*) 2 1 Denmark Netherlands Norway Korea Sweden USA Portugal Finland Spain France Euro Area Greece Belgium Ireland Italy Germany Austria Estonia Slovakia Poland Czechia Slovenia Latvia Hungary Turkey 0 Source: CBRT, TURKSTAT, OECD (*) Other country data is as of 2017Q2, data for Korea is as of 2016Q4. The ratio of household liabilities to GDP indicates that among countries compared, Turkey stood out as the country with the lowest level of indebtedness in 2017Q2 (Chart 10). 6
7. CBRT | Financial Accounts Report | 2017-II III. Non-Financial Corporations Currency and Deposits Loans Insurance, Pension and Standardized Guarantee Schemes Other Accounts Receivable 2017-II 2017-I 2016-IV -600 2016-III -600 2016-II -400 2015-I -400 2017-II -200 2017-I -200 2016-IV 0 2016-III 0 2016-II 200 2016-I 200 2015-IV 400 2015-III 400 2015-II 600 2015-I 600 2016-I Chart 12. Financial Liabilities (transaction, TRY billion) 2015-IV Chart 11. Financial Assets (transaction, TRY billion) 2015-III which was mainly driven by the rise in shares and other equity item (Charts 11 and 12). 2015-II In the second quarter of 2017, financial assets and liabilities of non-financial corporations increased compared to the previous quarter, Debt Securities Other Accounts Payable Financial Derivatives Shares and Other Equity Insurance, Pension and Standardized Guarantee Schemes Shares and Other Equity Financial Derivatives Financial Assets Loans Currency and Deposits Debt Securities Liabilities Source: CBRT Source: CBRT In the second quarter of 2017, the most significant item on the assets side of nonfinancial corporations was the other accounts receivable item (48 percent) composed of the sum of trade credits and advances, and other items. The share of the shares and other equity item was 38 percent, and that of currency and deposits was 12 percent3 (Chart 13). On the liabilities side, the share of financing through issues of shares and other equity in total liabilities was 34 percent, while the shares of other accounts payable and loans used were 35 percent and 30 percent, respectively (Chart 14). 3 To compile the financial accounts of non-financial corporations, the CBRT Company Accounts data were used until 2014 for currency, other accounts receivable, other accounts payable, and shares and other equity items, whereas TURKSTAT’s consolidated non-financial company accounts data have been used since then. 7
8. CBRT | Financial Accounts Report | 2017-II Chart 13. Breakdown of Financial Assets by Instruments (percent) Chart 14. Breakdown of Financial Liabilities by Instruments (percent) 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% Other Accounts Receivable 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% Shares and Other Equity 30% Other Accounts Payable 70% Shares and Other Equity Hise Senedi ve Özkaynaklar 30% 20% 20% Currency and Deposits Debt Securities Currency and Deposits Debt Securities Loans Shares and Other Equity Financial Derivatives Loans Shares and Other Equity Financial Derivaties Insurance, Pension and Standardized Guarantee Schemes Insurance, Pension and Standardized Guarantee Schemes Other Accounts Receivable 2017-II 2017-I 2016-IV 2016-III 2016-II 2016-I 2015-III 2015-II 2015-I 2014 2013 2012 2011 0% 2017-II 2017-I 2016-IV 2016-III 2016-II 2016-I 2015-III 2015-II 2015-I 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 0% Loans 10% Currency and Deposits 2010 10% Other Accounts Payable Source: CBRT Source: CBRT In the second quarter of 2017, net assets of non-financial corporations decreased by TRY 169 billion compared to the previous quarter (Chart 15). While the ratio of non-financial corporations’ debts to GDP was 69 percent in 2017Q2, the ratio of debts to total financial assets decreased (Chart 16). Chart 15. Change in Net Assets of Non-Financial Corporations (TRY billion) Chart 16. Non-Financial Corporations’ Debt (*) (percent) 20 Financial Assets Liabilities Changes in net assets (right axis) -120 30% -140 20% -160 10% -180 0% Debt/GDP Debt/Total Financial Assets Source: CBRT (*) Debts are composed of loans and government debt. 2017-II 40% 2017-I -100 2016-IV 2017-II 2017-I 2016-IV 2016-III 2016-II 2016-I 2015-IV Valuation, Financial Assets Source: CBRT 8 2015-II 2015-II 2015-I -8000 50% 2016-III -6000 60% -80 2016-II -4000 -60 2016-I -2000 70% 2015-IV 0 -40 2015-II 2000 80% 2015-II -20 90% 2015-I 0 4000 2014 6000
9. CBRT | Financial Accounts Report | 2017-II Chart 17. Non-Financial Corporations’ Liabilities / GDP (*) 8 6 4 2 Ireland Sweden Belgium Denmark France Norvay USA Spain Estonia Netherlands Portugal Euro Area Finland Korea Hungary Turkey Italy Austria Latvia Czechia Slovenia Germany Poland Slovakia Greece 0 Source: CBRT, TURKSTAT, OECD (*) Other country data is as of 2017Q1, data for Korea is as of 2016Q4. A comparison of the ratios of non-financial corporations’ liabilities to GDP with those of several countries shows that in the second quarter of 2017, Turkey was among the countries with low indebtedness levels (Chart 17). 9
10. CBRT | Financial Accounts Report | 2017-II BOX- A Reflection of Financial Accounts: From-Whom-To-Whom Matrices International institutions and statistical authorities underline the importance of analyzing financial relations between various sectors of the economy and the relation between sectors and the rest of the economy. In this framework, the G-20 Data Gaps Initiative1 has recommended countries to prepare fromwhom-to-whom tables derived from the Financial Accounts Statistics (FAS) and data in this format have begun to be compiled at the European level encouraged by the European Central Bank. This box first explains what from-whom-towhom tables are and how they are prepared. Then, the from-whom-to-whom tables for deposits and loans taken from the FAS compiled by the CBRT are presented. Table 1. From-Whom-to-Whom Sample Table Liabilities Non-Financial Financial Corporations Corporations General Government Households Rest of the World Assets Non-Financial Corporations Financial Corporations General Government Households Rest of the world The FAS presents data on financial transactions and stocks for various institutional sectors. The FAS data are arranged on the basis of a “from-whom-to-whom” distinction to allow calculation of the fund flows and show transactions between different sectors in Turkey and transactions carried out with a source abroad. According to the System of National Accounts 20082 : “The flow of funds is a three dimensional presentation of financial statistics where both parties to a transaction as well as the nature of the financial instrument being transacted are elaborated”. Therefore, the from-whom-to-whom tables constitute the basis for the flow of funds. The from-whomto-whom table is prepared to answer three key questions: i) who finances whom?, ii) with which instrument?, and iii) in what amount of funding? (Table 1). Table 1 above shows the from-whom-to-whom table prepared for a single financial instrument. When the matrix for each instrument is compiled, the integrated from-whom-to-whom data for an economy is attained. Compilation Methods When the current data are supported by additional data sources and calculation methods, a complete picture is attained thanks to the building block approach for key financial instruments. As some financial instruments are only valid for some specific sectors, cells that are conceptually non-existent are eliminated. For instance, the authority to collect deposits or issue securities is not valid for households. The assets and liabilities of institutional sectors in the existing FAS data can be rearranged for a specific financial instrument. For instance, the counterpart sector data for deposits of the banking sector, which are the assets of The Financial Crisis and Information Gaps” IMF and FSB Secretariat, October 29, 2009. The System of National Accounts, 2008. 1 2 10
11. CBRT | Financial Accounts Report | 2017-II the banking sector, determine other sector’s deposit liabilities to banks. Accordingly, many cells of the from-whom-to-whom table prepared for a specific instrument can be filled in by using the existing data. Money and banking statistics, fiscal statistics of the general government, and balance of payments statistics can be used for this purpose. When there are missing sectoral data in any direction of the matrix, the “from top-to- bottom” approach is employed to calculate the missing values by departing from the sums and finding the remainders, or other assumptions can be made. When missing data cannot be calculated by using the existing data, the counterpart sector data and the remainder approach, additional data sources are sought (Table 2). Table 2. Compiling From-Whom-to-Whom Tables Liability/Issuer Total Instrument Non-Financial Corporations (S11) Asset / Holder Financial Corporations (S12) General Government (S13) Households (S14) Total Economy Rest of the World (S2) Total NonFinancial Corporations S11-A Financial Corporations S12-A General Goverment S13-A Households S14-A Total Economy S1-A Rest of the World S2-A Total Economy Total S11-L S12-L S13-L S14-L Not applicable Information available Estimated/Residual Additional data source S1-L S2-L A=L Source: OECD Strengths and Weaknesses An analysis of strengths and weaknesses of from-whom-to-whom tables reveals that the strongest side of these tables is that they allow observation of the monetary transmission mechanism as they show relations between sectors. The from-whom-to-whom tables can also be used as an instrument to analyze the strengths and weaknesses of portfolios as they present the composition of assets and liabilities by sectors. They provide an analytical perspective for accounts and allow the monitoring of lender/ borrower relations between the sectors. From a statistical point of view, it is an important instrument with respect to enhancing the quality and consistency of data. The tables ensure full consistency by allowing cross-check of data from both lender and borrower sides. Against these strengths, the from-whom-to-whom data put an additional burden on statisticians while compiling data and it is necessary to compile data in fromwhom-to-whom format for the tables to be effectively used. 11
12. CBRT | Financial Accounts Report | 2017-II International Practices Although financial flow and position data are published in advanced economies in particular, in most countries, the from-whom-to-whom tables are not produced. Very few of the G20 countries publish this data. While the IMF and Eurostat require member countries to compile from-whom-to-whom data for financial instruments by main sectors, the ECB compiles this data set by deposits, loans, debt securities and investment funds sub-sectors. The OECD compiles the from-whom-to-whom data in a way similar to the ECB. The OECD has conducted a survey of the availability of the from- whom-to-whom data and the results of the survey revealed that only 17 of the 41 countries can produce such data for all financial instruments. Turkey’s Practice The CBRT started to compile from-whom-towhom tables for deposits and loans starting from the Financial Accounts Report in 2017Q1. The Money and Banking Statistics (MBS) have priority in the Financial Accounts Statistics data hierarchy with respect to quality3, therefore, the deposit and loan data have been based on these statistics. The deposits of domestic sectors collected by banks abroad have been based on International Investment Position (IIP) statistics. The deposits, which are banks’ liabilities, have been analyzed in line with counterpart sector data to determine the “to whom” information and the matrix started to be filled in. For the asset side of deposit liabilities compiled from banking statistics, the sectoral reports in the FAS have been taken into account and they have been cross-checked for consistency. Similarly, the asset side of loans has been compiled from the MBS to find the answer to the question “to whom”. Consistency controls of this data have been carried out by comparing with the liabilities in the data directly retrieved from institutional sectors. As there are no counterpart sector data for the General Government Sector, this sector has been regarded as a remainder sector and sectoral distribution has been carried out accordingly. An analysis of the from- whom-to-whom table of deposits reveals that the most part (91 percent) of deposits are collected by monetary and financial institutions and the rest is collected by the rest of the world, and a similar distribution is observed in the counterpart sector distribution in the first two quarters of 2017. In 2017Q2, households was the sector opening the highest amount of deposit accounts followed by monetary and financial corporations’ deposits and lastly non-financial corporations. The ratio of deposits that the monetary and financial corporations kept at each other was 24 percent (Chart 1). For data hierarchy, please click here for Financial Accounts Metadata page. 3 12
13. CBRT | Financial Accounts Report | 2017-II Chart 1. Deposits, From-Whom-to-Whom, 2017-I and 2017-II, Comparison (percent) 2017-II 2017-I 1% 1% 8% 8% 21% 37% 20% 38% 24% 4% 3% 24% 4% 2% 3% 2% Households Other Financial Institutions Monetary and Financial Institutions General Government Insurance Companies and Pension Funds Non-Financial Corporations Rest of the World Non-profit Institutions Serving Households Source: CBRT An analysis of the from-whom-to-whom tables of loans by lending and borrowing sectors shows that the sector which borrows the highest amount of loans is the monetary and financial corporations and the sector using the highest amount of loans is the non-financial corporations. The share of loans extended by the biggest creditor - the monetary and financial corporations - slightly increased in 2017Q2 and reached 67 percent; and loans extended by the rest of the world to the domestic economy decreased by the same amount. With respect to borrowers, in 2017Q2, loans utilized by non-financial corporations slightly decreased to become 59 percent while the ratio of loans used by monetary and financial corporations in the total loan utilization increased by 1.5 percent to 16 percent. Households’ credit utilization ratio remained at 15 percent in both quarters. 13
14. CBRT | Financial Accounts Report | 2017-II Chart 2. Loans, From-Whom-to-Whom, 2017-I and 2017-II, Comparison (percent) 2017-I (Debtor) 2017-I (Creditor) 0.86% 2.20% 0.02% 3.07% 27.24% 0% 0.02% 0.15% 2.48% 15.79% 4.44% 65.18% 60.24% 14.20% 4.08% 2017-II (Debtor) 2017-II (Creditor) 0.79% 2.00% 0,02% 3.05% 25.41% 0.00% 0.03% 2.40% 15.49% 4.23% 67.29% 0.11% 59.34% 15.84% 3.97% Source: CBRT 14 Monetary and Financial Institutions Other Financial Institutions Households Non-Financial Corporations General Government Rest of the World Monetary and Financial Institutions Non-profit Institutions Serving Households
15. CBRT | Financial Accounts Report | 2017-II IV. Total Debt of Resident Sectors The ratio of resident sectors’ financial accounts-defined total debt, which is the sum of the loans they use and the debt securities they issue, to GDP was flat in the second quarter of 2017 compared to the previous quarter (Chart 18). Chart 18. Total Debt of Sectors/GDP 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.18 1.21 1.20 1.29 1.34 1.41 1.44 1.45 1.39 1.37 1.38 1.39 1.45 1.47 1.48 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-I 2015-II 2015-III 2015-IV 2016-I General Government/GDP Non-Financial Corp./GDP Financial Corp./GDP Households/GDP 2016-II 2016-III 2016-IV 2017-I 2017-II Total Debt/GDP Source: CBRT, TURKSTAT A cross-country comparison of this indebtedness ratio reveals that the total debt of resident sectors in Turkey was low in 2017Q2 (Chart 19). 15
16. CBRT | Financial Accounts Report | 2017-II Chart 19. Cross-Country Comparison of Debt/GDP Ratio by Sectors (2017Q2) (*) 1.04 1.32 Belgium 1.64 Euro Area USA 0.98 0.73 0.33 1.85 Italy 0.66 1.39 Avustria 0.58 1.06 0.70 0.44 Korea Hungary Czechia 0.46 0.33 0.00 0.58 0.30 0.28 0.69 0.50 General Government/GDP 1.00 0.63 0.59 0.42 0.76 0.52 0.89 0.95 0.69 0.58 0.79 0.92 0.46 0.85 0.59 1.04 1.31 1.01 Greece Turkey 1.58 0.20 0.31 0.17 1.50 2.00 Financial Corp./GDP 2.50 3.00 3.50 Non-Financial Corp./GDP 4.00 4.50 5.00 Households/GDP Source: CBRT, TURKSTAT, OECD (*)Other country data is as of 2017Q1, data for Korea is as of 2016Q4. V. Conclusion In the second quarter of 2017, the Turkish economy maintained its position as a net debtor, with households and the rest of the world being the two major financing sectors. The most indebted sector was the non-financial corporations sector, followed by the general government. In this period, the net financial 16 worth of households slightly improved on the back of transactions. On the other hand, net borrowing of non-financial corporations escalated and the ratio of debt to total financial assets dropped.