Indonesia: Macroeconomic Indicators Forecasting Survey Quarter IV - 2017

Transcription

1. MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS Macroeconomics Indicators Forecasting Survey FORECASTING SURVEY ”Economic Growth Predicted to Strengthen in 2017 ” Quarter IV – 2017 • The fourth-quarter edition of the Macroeconomic Indicator Forecasting Survey in 2017 revealed that respondents predicted national economic growth in Indonesia for 2017 at 5.08% (yoy), up slightly from 5.02% (yoy) achieved in 2016. Respondents were upbeat that the economic gains would persist into 2018, predicting national economic growth at 5.23% (yoy) in 2018, exceeding that achieved in 2017. • The respondents expected controlled inflationary pressures in 2018, forecasting 3.35% (yoy) compared to the 3.61% (yoy) realised at the end of 2017. The respondents expected lower administered prices (AP), adequate availability of goods and services as well as uninterrupted distribution as the main drags on lower inflation in 2018. • Respondents predicted the exchange rate to depreciate in 2018 from Rp13,548/USD to a level of Rp13,591/USD on the back of stronger global economic dynamics and a build-up of domestic risk factors. Expectations of Macroeconomic Conditions in the First Quarter of 2018 Respondent predicted stronger national economic growth in the first quarter of 2018 Respondents of the Macroeconomic Indicator Forecasting Survey predicted stronger national economic growth in the further quarter of 2017, accelerating from 5,06% (yoy) in the previous period to 5,10% (yoy) (Graph 1). Graph 1. GDP Expectation (%, YOY) 6,0 5,5 5,0 5,18 4,92 5,01 4,94 5,01 5,01 5,06 5,10 Q III Q IV QI Q II Q III Q IV* 5,11 5,15 5,14 5,21 4,5 4,0 QI Q II 2016 ←---------------- Q I** Q II** Q III** Q IV** 2017 Actual ---------> 2018 <----- Expectation -----> *Result of MIFS QIV-2017, Update Result of MIFS Q III-2017 ** Result of MIFS Q IV-2017 Methodology : Macroeconomic Indicator Forecasting Survey (previously Market Perception Survey) is a quartely survey started from Quarter IV-2001 with economists, economic researchers, capital/money market analyts, and academia societies as reposdents. Respondents are selected based on purposive sampling method. Data are collected online using the web-based surveys application or by mail, facsimile and e-mail. The methodology used is polling method (the percentage of respondents providing the majority of response) and mean point estimates (mpe). 1
2. Macroeconomics Indicators Forecasting Survey Furthermore , the respondents expected economic momentum to persist into 2018, predicting 5,11% (yoy) in the first quarter of the new year, up from 5,10% (yoy) in the fourth quarter of 2017. The economic gains were forecasted to accelerate throughout the year, peaking in the fourth quarter of 2018 at 5,21% (yoy) (Graph1). Respondent predicted milder inflationary pressures in the first quarter of 2018 The anticipated inflationary respondents milder pressures in 2018, predicting headline inflation at 3.11% (yoy) and Graph 2. Inflation Expectation (%, YOY) 8 6 4,45 3.09% (yoy) in the first and second quarters of the new 4 year, lower than realisation of 3.61% (yoy) at the end of 0 3,45 3,07 3,02 Q III Q IV 3,61 4,37 3,72 3,61 Q III QIV 3,11 3,24 3,09 3,35 2 QI Q II QI 2016 Q II Q I** Q II** Q III** Q IV** 2017 2018 ←------------------- Actual -----------------------------> <------ Expectation ---> 2017 (Graph 2). (MIFS Q IV-2017) Notwithstanding, inflationary pressures were expected to return in the second half of the year, with respondents predicting 3.24% (yoy) and 3.35% (yoy) in the third and fourth quarters respectively. Nonetheless, the respondents’ predictions were below actual inflation realisation in 2017. Respondent predicted the rupiah to depreciate in the first quarter of 2018 The predicted respondents rupiah depreciation against the USD in the first quarter of 2018, falling from Rp13,548/USD at the end of 2017 to a level of Rp13,559/USD in the Graph 3. Exchange Rate Expectation (Rp/USD) 15.000 14.000 13.000 13.436 13.321 13.319 13.492 13.548 13.559 13.581 13.610 13.276 13.180 12.998 13.591 12.000 11.000 10.000 9.000 8.000 QI Q II Q III Q IV QI 2016 reporting period (Graph 3). Q II Q III QIV Q I** Q II** Q III** Q IV** 2017 ←--------------------- Actual --------------------------> 2018 <----- Expectation -----> (MIFS Q IV-2017) Table 1. Expectation for Quarterly Economic Indicators No. Economic Indicators QI Realization *) 2017 Q II Q III Q IV 1. GDP Growth (%, yoy) 5.01 5.01 5,06 na. 2. Inflation (%, yoy) 3.61 4.37 3.72 3,61 Expectation Q I - 2018 **) Q II - 2018 **) Q III - 2018 **) Q IV - 2018 **) 5,00 - 5,24 (mpe: 5,11) 5,00 - 5,24 (mpe: 5,15) > 5,00 (mpe: 5,14) > 5,25 (mpe: 5,21) ≤ 3,50 (mpe: 3,11) ≤ 3,50 (mpe: 3,09) ≤ 3,50 (mpe: 3,24) ≤ 3,50 (mpe: 3,35) 3. Exchange rate (USD to Rupiah) 13,321 13,319 13,492 13.548 13.501-13.750 (mpe: 13.559) 13.501-13.750 (mpe: 13.581) 13.501-13.750 (mpe: 13.610) 13.501-13.750 (mpe: 13.591) 2
3. Macroeconomics Indicators Forecasting Survey Expectations of Macroeconomic Conditions in 2017 Respondent predicted national economic growth to outstrip the achievements of 2016 The fourth-quarter edition of the Macroeconomic Indicator Forecasting Survey revealed that respondents predicted national economic growth in Indonesia for 2017 at 5 .08% (yoy), up slightly from 5.02% (yoy) achieved in 2016, citing global economic improvements, increasing domestic and foreign investment as well as the solid trade balance for the gains. Nevertheless, the GDP growth predicted by respondents of the Macroeconomic Indicator Forecasting Survey was below Bank Indonesia’s own projection 1 as well as the macroeconomic assumptions used for the state budget in 2017 2 at 5.1% (yoy) and 5.2% (yoy) respectively. Survey respondents predicted inflation in 2017 at 3.34% (yoy), below inflation realisation in 2017 at 3.61% (yoy) but still within the inflation target of 4.0±1% (Table 2). Furthermore, survey respondents predicted the rupiah exchange rate against the USD at a level of Rp13,438/USD at the end of 2017, compared to an actual rate of Rp13,548/USD recorded at the end of 2017, depreciating from Rp13,436/USD in 2016 (Table 2). Table 2. Expectation for Economic Indicators in 2017 and 2018 Realization No. Expectation for 2017 Expectation for 2018 Survey Q III-2017 Survei Q IV-2017 Revised State Budget Asumption 2018 *) ≥ 5,25 (mpe: 5,31) > 5,00 (mpe: 5,23) 5,4 ≤ 3,50 (mpe: 3,18) ≤ 3,50 (mpe: 3,35) Economic Indicators 2016 2017 1. GDP Growth (%, y-o-y) 5.02 n.a 2. Inflation (%, y-o-y) 3.02 3. Exchange rate (Rupiah to USD) 13,436 3,61 13.548 Survei Q III-2017 Survei Q IV-2017 5,00 - 5,24 (mpe: 5,09) 5,00 - 5,24 (mpe: 5,08) 3,76 - 4,00 (mpe: 3,86) ≤ 3,50 (mpe: 3,34) 3,5 ≤ 13.500 (mpe: 13.359) ≤ 13.500 (mpe: 13.438) ≤ 13.500 (mpe: 13.351) 13.501-13.750 (mpe: 13.591) 13.500 Outlook for Macroeconomic Conditions in 2018 Respondent predicted further economic gains in 2018 Respondents expected Graph 4. GDP Expectation for 2017 and 2018 further economic gains in 2018, national predicting economic growth at 5.23% (yoy) in 2018, up from 5.08% (yoy) projection in 2017. The prediction in line Indonesia’s 1 2 with Bank ( % Respondent ) 100 Expectation of 2017 Expectation of 2018 100,0 75 50 50,0 50,0 25 0,0 0 5.00 - 5.24% > =5.25% ( %, yoy) projection Monetary Policy Review, December 2017. Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia. 3
4. Macroeconomics Indicators Forecasting Survey in the 5 .1-5.5% (yoy) 3 range and below the macroeconomic assumption of 5.4% (yoy) 4 used for the state budget in 2018. The respondents were encouraged by global economic gains, increasing government/fiscal spending, greater public purchasing power as well as increasing domestic and foreign investment in 2018. Graph 5. Inflation Expectation for 2017 and 2018 Respondent expected lower inflation in 2018 The expected respondents subdued ( % Respondent ) 60 inflationary pressures in 2018 compared to 50 2017. Expectation of 2017 Expectation of 2018 42,3 30,8 30 20 11,5 10 3.61% (yoy) realised at the of 46,2 40 conditions in 2017, forecasting 3.35% (yoy) for 2018 compared to the end 57,7 3,8 0 That <= 3,5% 3,51 - 3,75 % 3,76 - 4,0% 7,7 0,0 4,01 - 4,25 % ( %, yoy) prediction falls within the target corridor of 3.5±1% 5 in 2018 and below the macroeconomic assumption of 3.5% (yoy)6 used for the state budget in 2018. The respondents expected lower administered prices (AP), adequate availability of goods and services as well as smooth distribution as the main drags on inflation in 2018. Graph 6. Exchange Rate Expectation for 2017 and 2018 Respondent predicted the exchange rate to depreciate in 2018 Respondents predicted the exchange rate to depreciate in 2018. The survey respondents expected the rupiah exchange rate to close at a level of Rp13,591/USD at the end of 2018, falling from ( % Respondent ) 100 Expectation of 2017 90 80 Expectation of 2018 73,1 70 57,7 60 50 42,3 40 26,9 30 20 10 0 ≤ 13,500 13,501-13,750 Rp13,548/USD in 2017 but above the IDR/USD macroeconomic assumption of Rp13,500/USD used for the state budget in 2018. Respondents expected rupiah depreciation to stem from stronger global economic dynamics and a build-up of domestic risk factors. 3 Monetary Policy Review, December 2017. Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia. 5 Monetary Policy Review, December 2017. 6 Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia. 4 4
5. ECONOMIC INDICATOR EXPECTATIONS BASED ON MIF SURVEY IN Q4 /2017 Graph 1. Expectation of Economic Growth in Q1/2018 Graph 2. Expectation of Inflation in Q1/18 ( % Respondent ) ( % Respondent ) 80 100 69,2 81,0 60 75 40 50 19,2 20 25 11,5 14,3 4,8 0 0 4.75 - 4.99 % 5.00 - 5.24% <= 3,5% > =5.25% 3,51 - 3,75 % 3,76 - 4,0% ( % , yoy ) ( %, yoy) 81% of respondents predicted GDP growth at 5,11% (yoy) in the first quarter of 2018. 69,2% of respondents predicted inflation at 3,11% (yoy) in the first quarter of 2018 Graph 3. Expectation of Exchange Rate in Q1/2018 Graph 4. Expectation of Economic Growth in 2017 ( % Respondent ) ( % Respondent ) 100 100 80 80 60 100,0 46,2 60 53,8 40 40 20 20 0 0 ≤ 13,500 13,501-13,750 5.00 - 5.24% ( %, yoy ) ( IDR/USD ) 53,8% respondents predicted the value of the rupiah at Rp13.559 against the USD in the first quarter of 2018. Respondents predicted GDP growth in 2017 at 5,08% (yoy). 5
6. ECONOMIC INDICATOR EXPECTATIONS BASED ON MIF SURVEY IN Q4 /2017 Graph 5. Expectation of Economic Growth in 2018 Grafik 6. Expectation of Inflation in 2018 ( % Respondent ) ( % Respondent ) 50 100 45 90 46,2 42,3 40 80 35 70 60 50,0 50 30 50,0 25 40 20 30 15 20 10 10 5 0 5.00 - 5.24% 3,8 7,7 0 > =5.25% <= 3,5% 3,51 - 3,75 % 3,76 - 4,0% 4,01 - 4,25 % ( %, yoy) ( %, yoy) Respondents predicted GDP growth in 2018 at 5,23% (yoy). Respondents predicted inflation in 2018 at 3,35% (yoy). . Graph 7. Expectation of Exchange Rate in 2018 ( % Respondent ) 100 80 57,7 60 40 42,3 20 0 ≤ 13,500 13,501-13,750 ( IDR/USD) Respondents predicted the value of Rp13.591 against the USD in 2018. the rupiah at 6