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Turkey: Economic Expectations - February 2017

IM Research
By IM Research
7 years ago
Turkey: Survey of Expectations - February 2017

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  1. Statistics Department CONTENTS Page Number Expectation of Consumer Inflation Expectation of the Monthly Consumer Inflation (CPI) (%) 2 Expectation of the Annual Consumer Inflation (CPI) (%) 3 Probability Distributions of Consumer Inflation (CPI) Expectations (%) 4 Expectation of the US Dollar Rate in the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (TRY) 5 Expectation of the Annual Current Account Balance (Billion US Dollars) 6 Expectation of the Annual GDP Growth Rate ( % ) 7 Expectation of Weighted Average Cost of the CBRT Funding (%) 8 Expectation of the Borsa Istanbul (BIST) Repo and Reverse Repo Market Overnight Interest Rate (%) 9 Expectation of One-Week CBRT Repo Auction Interest Rate Expectation of One-Week CBRT Repo Auction Interest Rate - Short Term (%) 10 Expectation of One-Week CBRT Repo Auction Interest Rate - Long Term (%) 11 Expectation of Annually Compounded Interest Rate of TRY Denominated Government Domestic Debt Securities with Maturity of About Three Months Expectation of Annually Compounded Interest Rate of TRY Denominated Government Domestic Debt Securities with Maturity of About Three Months (% ) - 1 12 Expectation of Annually Compounded Interest Rate of TRY Denominated Government Domestic Debt Securities with Maturity of About Three Months (% ) - 2 13 Expectation of the Secondary Market Annually Compounded Interest Rate of Fixed Rate TRY Denominated Government Domestic Debt Securities with Maturity of About Five Years (%) 14 Expectation of the Secondary Market Annually Compounded Interest Rate of Fixed Rate TRY Denominated Government Domestic Debt Securities with Maturity of About Ten Years (%) 15 1
  2. Statistics Department Expectation of Consumer Inflation Expectation of Monthly Consumer Inflation (CPI) (%) Current Month Current Period Next Month 2- Month Ahead No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean February-16 67 0.23 0.68 0.65 0.60 0.68 66 0.20 0.82 0.80 0.70 0.82 65 0.34 1.04 1.00 1.00 1.04 March-16 59 0.23 0.72 0.76 0.80 0.77 58 0.32 0.99 1.00 1.00 0.99 58 0.19 0.60 0.60 0.50 0.60 April-16 66 0.40 0.92 0.90 1.20 0.92 65 0.23 0.63 0.60 0.60 0.63 65 0.37 0.14 0.10 0.00 0.14 May-16 62 0.25 0.66 0.60 0.50 0.65 60 0.35 0.17 0.18 0.40 0.17 59 0.22 0.19 0.15 0.00 0.15 June-16 63 0.32 0.11 0.15 0.00 0.11 63 0.19 0.21 0.20 0.30 0.20 62 0.25 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.41 July-16 66 0.20 0.26 0.20 0.20 0.26 65 0.17 0.38 0.40 0.50 0.38 64 0.19 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 August-16 60 0.30 0.33 0.35 0.40 0.33 60 0.21 0.71 0.71 0.70 0.71 59 0.47 1.24 1.30 1.00 1.24 September-16 65 0.22 0.72 0.80 0.80 0.72 64 0.49 1.34 1.45 1.00 1.34 62 0.26 0.61 0.60 0.50 0.61 October-16 64 0.49 1.32 1.43 1.50 1.32 63 0.26 0.75 0.72 0.80 0.74 62 0.28 0.52 0.47 0.30 0.46 November-16 65 0.23 0.86 0.88 1.00 0.83 65 0.22 0.55 0.50 0.30 0.55 63 0.43 1.11 1.11 1.00 1.11 December-16 64 0.32 0.79 0.75 0.90 0.79 62 0.42 1.21 1.19 1.00 1.21 60 0.32 0.62 0.56 0.50 0.58 January-17 68 0.43 1.48 1.50 1.50 1.44 67 0.38 0.75 0.72 0.70 0.69 66 0.35 0.80 0.76 0.70 0.76 February-17 63 0.38 0.62 0.60 0.50 0.62 61 0.33 0.74 0.80 0.80 0.76 60 0.27 0.95 1.00 1.00 0.95 2
  3. Statistics Department Expectation of Consumer Inflation Expectation of Annual Consumer Inflation (CPI) (%) End of the Year Current Period End of the Next 12 Months End of the Next 24 Months No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean February-16 71 0.60 8.48 8.50 8.50 8.48 63 0.64 7.96 8.00 8.00 7.96 60 0.77 7.29 7.21 7.00 7.29 March-16 62 0.53 8.29 8.35 8.50 8.29 54 0.57 7.83 7.90 8.00 7.89 51 0.72 7.23 7.10 7.00 7.23 April-16 68 0.50 7.91 7.98 8.00 7.91 61 0.75 7.78 7.80 8.00 7.78 60 0.79 7.13 7.15 7.00 7.14 May-16 64 0.44 7.80 7.85 7.50 7.80 57 0.63 7.81 7.80 8.00 7.81 52 0.69 7.14 7.05 7.00 7.14 June-16 63 0.45 7.64 7.70 7.50 7.64 58 0.77 7.65 7.58 7.50 7.60 57 0.70 7.01 7.00 7.00 6.95 July-16 70 0.37 7.81 7.80 8.00 7.81 61 0.68 7.59 7.50 7.50 7.59 59 0.72 7.03 7.00 7.00 7.03 August-16 60 0.42 8.21 8.26 8.00 8.21 56 0.58 7.61 7.50 7.50 7.61 53 0.70 7.16 7.00 7.00 7.16 September-16 67 0.36 8.07 8.00 8.00 8.07 60 0.62 7.62 7.60 7.50 7.62 58 0.60 7.11 7.00 7.00 7.11 October-16 69 0.46 7.76 7.89 8.00 7.81 61 0.64 7.61 7.60 7.50 7.61 58 0.69 7.01 7.00 7.00 7.01 November-16 67 0.33 7.80 7.80 7.50 7.80 61 0.57 7.87 7.85 8.00 7.87 60 0.69 7.27 7.24 7.00 7.27 December-16 66 0.33 7.69 7.70 7.50 7.69 61 0.67 8.04 8.00 8.00 8.04 58 0.74 7.38 7.49 7.50 7.31 January-17 69 0.89 8.58 8.40 8.00 8.48 60 1.03 8.33 8.20 8.00 8.19 60 1.05 7.70 7.53 7.50 7.59 February-17 64 0.51 8.87 8.99 9.00 8.87 57 0.63 8.21 8.10 8.00 8.21 56 0.71 7.59 7.50 7.00 7.59 3
  4. Statistical Department Probability Distributions of Consumer Price Index (CPI) Expectations (%) (*) 12-Month Ahead Current Period No. Of Obs. < 3.00 3.00-3.49 3.50-3.99 4.00-4.49 4.50-4.99 5.00-5.49 5.50-5.99 6.00-6.49 6.50-6.99 7.00-7.49 7.50-7.99 8.00-8.49 8.50-8.99 9.00-9.49 9.50-9.99 ≥ 10.00 February-16 43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.73 3.47 16.58 26.55 22.96 19.73 7.90 1.50 0.58 March-16 37 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.49 5.21 8.60 14.78 32.78 25.31 9.44 3.10 0.29 0.00 April-16 41 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.65 4.17 8.28 22.61 31.35 17.23 10.40 4.17 0.85 0.22 May-16 41 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.03 7.42 23.99 31.55 19.25 10.69 3.91 0.92 0.24 June-16 43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.56 1.18 3.12 13.88 29.20 24.20 15.18 5.79 4.48 2.03 0.38 July-16 39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.75 2.59 13.15 29.55 26.66 16.37 7.10 3.37 0.32 0.00 August-16 38 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.48 3.16 11.72 28.08 29.74 15.62 7.50 3.47 0.21 0.00 September-16 41 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.45 5.24 15.71 24.71 31.64 15.62 5.82 0.81 0.00 0.00 October-16 44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 1.40 3.34 10.37 23.58 32.69 20.33 7.51 0.72 0.00 0.00 November-16 40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 1.13 5.75 20.33 31.85 22.72 10.49 5.64 1.77 0.18 December-16 40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.43 1.69 4.02 17.71 30.44 24.93 11.90 5.20 3.33 0.35 January-17 39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.82 5.21 8.44 19.51 28.88 20.62 12.63 3.89 0.00 February-17 38 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 2.44 12.14 24.28 31.77 20.17 5.74 1.67 1.51 24-Month Ahead Current Period No. Of Obs. < 3.50 3.50-4.49 4.50-5.49 5.50-6.49 6.50-7.49 ≥ 7.5 February-16 40 0.00 0.00 4.25 15.50 50.00 30.25 March-16 34 0.00 0.30 5.88 15.29 51.47 27.06 April-16 40 0.00 0.25 4.50 19.25 57.50 18.50 May-16 37 0.00 0.27 4.59 18.65 52.17 24.32 June-16 42 0.00 0.00 6.67 22.38 53.81 17.14 July-16 39 0.00 1.03 7.69 21.28 51.28 18.72 August-16 34 0.00 0.29 5.88 22.35 54.71 16.77 September-16 37 0.00 0.00 6.22 24.59 53.51 15.68 October-16 40 0.00 0.25 5.75 20.75 52.75 20.50 November-16 39 0.00 0.00 5.39 14.87 51.28 28.46 December-16 39 0.00 0.00 4.61 15.90 54.36 25.13 January-17 42 0.00 0.24 3.33 12.86 44.52 39.05 February-17 37 0.00 0.00 3.24 8.38 48.92 39.46 (*) Detailed information is available at website of CBRT under the menu "Data/Surveys/Survey of Expectations/Methodological Information" 4
  5. Statistics Department Expectation of the US Dollar Rate in the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (TRY) End of the Current Month Current Period End of the Year End of the Next 12 Months No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean February-16 73 0.0313 2.9697 2.9700 3.0000 2.9714 72 0.1097 3.1413 3.1500 3.1500 3.1469 66 0.1559 3.2108 3.2000 3.2000 3.2108 March-16 62 0.0389 2.9017 2.9000 2.9000 2.9017 61 0.1026 3.1132 3.1000 3.1000 3.1132 54 0.1463 3.1995 3.2000 3.2000 3.1985 April-16 70 0.0316 2.8678 2.8600 2.8500 2.8659 71 0.1032 3.0790 3.0700 3.1500 3.0790 62 0.1467 3.1767 3.2000 3.2000 3.1786 May-16 64 0.0386 2.9731 2.9775 2.9500 2.9731 65 0.0958 3.1087 3.1000 3.0500 3.1087 58 0.1327 3.2176 3.2000 3.2000 3.2176 June-16 66 0.0353 2.9406 2.9400 2.9500 2.9406 65 0.0904 3.1008 3.1000 3.0500 3.1008 60 0.1568 3.2333 3.2000 3.2000 3.2086 July-16 70 0.0351 2.9124 2.9035 2.9000 2.9112 70 0.0794 3.0545 3.0500 3.0500 3.0545 63 0.1450 3.1888 3.1800 3.1000 3.1888 August-16 63 0.0258 2.9475 2.9500 2.9500 2.9475 61 0.0691 3.0684 3.0500 3.0500 3.0684 56 0.1161 3.1948 3.2000 3.1000 3.1948 September-16 69 0.0290 2.9716 2.9750 2.9500 2.9695 68 0.0549 3.0662 3.0500 3.0500 3.0662 61 0.1132 3.1966 3.2000 3.1000 3.1913 October-16 69 0.0299 3.0804 3.0800 3.1000 3.0804 70 0.0581 3.1204 3.1000 3.1000 3.1203 61 0.1446 3.2611 3.2500 3.2500 3.2559 November-16 70 0.0685 3.3398 3.3394 3.3000 3.3398 68 0.1099 3.3369 3.3225 3.4000 3.3369 62 0.1788 3.5157 3.5000 3.5000 3.4996 December-16 69 0.0639 3.4671 3.4600 3.5000 3.4602 69 0.0639 3.4671 3.4600 3.5000 3.4602 63 0.1545 3.6317 3.6500 3.6000 3.6317 January-17 72 0.0619 3.7598 3.7825 3.8000 3.7675 70 0.1963 3.8619 3.8700 4.0000 3.8619 63 0.2778 3.9553 3.9800 4.0000 3.9553 February-17 66 0.0682 3.7189 3.7275 3.7500 3.7189 65 0.1835 3.8807 3.9000 4.0000 3.8807 58 0.2480 3.9600 3.9500 4.0000 3.9600 5
  6. Statistics Department Expectation of the Annual Current Account Balance (Billion US Dollars) Current Year Current Period Next Year No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean February-16 69 3.9 -33.8 -35.0 -35.0 -33.8 59 5.0 -37.7 -38.0 -38.0 -37.7 March-16 59 3.7 -33.5 -33.0 -30.0 -33.5 50 4.3 -37.5 -38.0 -35.0 -37.2 April-16 67 3.4 -33.3 -33.0 -32.0 -32.9 57 4.3 -37.3 -37.0 -35.0 -37.0 May-16 61 3.2 -33.2 -32.5 -30.0 -32.8 52 4.0 -37.2 -37.8 -40.0 -37.4 June-16 64 3.2 -33.0 -32.8 -30.0 -32.5 56 4.3 -36.3 -36.4 -35.0 -36.3 July-16 68 2.8 -33.0 -32.5 -32.0 -32.8 58 4.1 -36.4 -36.0 -35.0 -36.4 August-16 59 2.7 -33.4 -33.0 -34.0 -33.2 51 4.6 -36.8 -36.0 -35.0 -36.6 September-16 66 2.7 -33.3 -33.0 -33.0 -33.1 57 3.9 -36.8 -36.0 -35.0 -36.8 October-16 69 2.0 -33.9 -34.0 -34.0 -33.7 60 3.6 -37.1 -37.0 -35.0 -37.1 November-16 66 1.8 -34.0 -34.0 -33.0 -34.0 61 3.8 -36.6 -36.0 -35.0 -36.7 December-16 65 1.5 -34.0 -34.0 -34.0 -34.0 59 3.3 -37.0 -36.5 -35.0 -36.8 January-17 70 4.9 -36.0 -35.0 -35.0 -35.4 60 6.7 -38.5 -38.0 -40.0 -38.2 February-17 63 3.7 -35.3 -35.0 -35.0 -35.6 55 4.8 -37.5 -38.0 -40.0 -37.9 6
  7. Statistics Department Expectation of the Annual GDP Growth Rate ( % ) Current Year Current Period Next Year No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean February-16 71 0.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 64 0.5 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.9 March-16 62 0.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 55 0.5 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.9 April-16 70 0.4 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.6 63 0.5 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.9 May-16 64 0.4 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.6 58 0.4 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.9 June-16 65 0.4 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.7 60 0.5 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.9 July-16 70 0.4 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.7 62 0.5 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.9 August-16 61 0.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 56 0.5 3.8 3.9 4.0 3.8 September-16 67 0.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.4 60 0.5 3.7 3.9 4.0 3.7 October-16 70 0.3 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.2 61 0.5 3.6 3.5 4.0 3.6 November-16 68 0.4 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 65 0.6 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.3 December-16 66 0.4 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6 62 0.5 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.2 January-17 70 0.5 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 61 0.6 3.5 3.5 4.0 3.6 February-17 65 0.5 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 58 0.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 7
  8. Statistics Department Expectation of Weighted Average Cost of the CBRT Funding (%) Current Month Current Period No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean February-16 68 0.09 9.03 9.00 9.00 9.04 March-16 60 0.16 8.98 9.00 9.00 8.96 April-16 68 0.21 8.63 8.65 8.50 8.65 May-16 60 0.16 8.49 8.50 8.50 8.48 June-16 63 0.17 8.35 8.40 8.40 8.34 July-16 67 0.15 8.16 8.15 8.20 8.16 August-16 59 0.11 7.99 8.00 8.00 8.00 September-16 65 0.13 7.87 7.85 8.00 7.86 October-16 64 0.13 7.74 7.75 7.75 7.74 November-16 63 0.11 7.82 7.80 7.80 7.80 December-16 63 0.51 8.35 8.30 8.30 8.33 January-17 68 0.41 9.13 9.18 9.00 9.13 February-17 62 0.42 10.30 10.35 10.40 10.37 8
  9. Statistics Department Expectation of the Borsa Istanbul (BIST) Repo and Reverse Repo Market Overnight Interest Rate (%) End of the Current Month Current Period No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean February-16 65 0.51 10.41 10.50 10.75 10.49 March-16 58 0.36 10.40 10.50 10.75 10.47 April-16 64 0.44 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.03 May-16 56 0.32 9.70 9.75 9.50 9.70 June-16 63 0.35 9.19 9.00 9.00 9.19 July-16 65 0.38 8.77 8.75 9.00 8.77 August-16 56 0.35 8.45 8.50 8.50 8.45 September-16 61 0.34 8.18 8.25 8.25 8.18 October-16 60 0.25 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 November-16 59 0.30 8.13 8.25 8.25 8.10 December-16 57 0.45 8.39 8.40 8.50 8.33 January-17 62 0.62 9.55 9.50 10.00 9.55 February-17 58 0.63 10.19 10.15 11.00 10.19 9
  10. Statistics Department Expectation of One-Week CBRT Repo Auction Interest Rate - Short Term (%) End of the Current Month Current Period 3 - Month Ahead 6 - Month Ahead No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean February-16 69 0.22 7.55 7.50 7.50 7.50 66 0.53 7.79 7.50 7.50 7.71 64 0.75 8.13 8.00 7.50 8.05 March-16 59 0.26 7.55 7.50 7.50 7.50 58 0.35 7.64 7.50 7.50 7.62 54 0.61 7.93 7.93 7.50 7.93 April-16 67 0.16 7.45 7.50 7.50 7.50 63 0.36 7.40 7.50 7.50 7.37 59 0.56 7.54 7.50 7.50 7.50 May-16 62 0.11 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 59 0.30 7.49 7.50 7.50 7.50 57 0.43 7.58 7.50 7.50 7.50 June-16 65 0.43 7.62 7.50 7.50 7.50 62 0.50 7.64 7.50 7.50 7.61 59 0.62 7.71 7.50 7.50 7.66 July-16 67 0.22 7.54 7.50 7.50 7.50 63 0.27 7.55 7.50 7.50 7.50 59 0.37 7.57 7.50 7.50 7.59 August-16 58 0.06 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 57 0.24 7.52 7.50 7.50 7.50 52 0.42 7.58 7.50 7.50 7.51 September-16 64 0.04 7.49 7.50 7.50 7.50 63 0.20 7.49 7.50 7.50 7.50 57 0.40 7.55 7.50 7.50 7.50 October-16 64 0.08 7.49 7.50 7.50 7.50 65 0.19 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 59 0.38 7.59 7.50 7.50 7.50 November-16 62 0.12 7.54 7.50 7.50 7.50 59 0.50 7.76 7.50 7.50 7.61 56 0.54 7.83 7.50 7.50 7.71 December-16 62 0.19 8.08 8.00 8.00 8.00 59 0.40 8.32 8.25 8.00 8.32 57 0.47 8.44 8.50 8.00 8.44 January-17 65 0.54 8.55 8.50 8.50 8.55 61 0.71 8.87 8.75 9.00 8.87 59 0.68 8.95 9.00 8.50 8.95 February-17 58 0.19 8.08 8.00 8.00 8.00 58 0.48 8.43 8.38 8.00 8.43 57 0.61 8.59 8.50 8.00 8.59 10
  11. Statistics Department Expectation of One-Week CBRT Repo Auction Interest Rate - Long Term (%) 12 - Month Ahead Current Period 24 - Month Ahead No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean February-16 60 0.83 8.40 8.50 8.50 8.34 59 1.01 8.37 8.40 8.50 8.30 March-16 51 0.74 8.12 8.00 8.00 8.12 51 0.99 8.21 8.00 8.00 8.21 April-16 58 0.78 7.79 7.73 8.00 7.79 58 1.08 7.90 7.88 7.50 7.78 May-16 52 0.62 7.72 7.50 7.50 7.59 52 0.92 7.84 7.63 7.50 7.84 June-16 56 0.79 7.81 7.68 7.50 7.75 56 1.03 7.86 7.75 7.50 7.86 July-16 57 0.51 7.73 7.75 8.00 7.69 56 0.83 7.84 7.81 8.00 7.85 August-16 51 0.55 7.78 7.75 7.50 7.66 51 0.78 7.82 7.75 7.50 7.82 September-16 55 0.67 7.73 7.50 7.50 7.61 54 0.92 7.82 7.50 7.50 7.82 October-16 57 0.62 7.75 7.50 7.50 7.58 56 0.80 7.82 7.50 7.50 7.82 November-16 56 0.68 7.92 7.75 7.50 7.74 56 0.87 7.95 7.75 7.50 7.89 December-16 55 0.59 8.50 8.50 8.00 8.50 53 0.83 8.33 8.00 8.00 8.33 January-17 58 0.73 8.71 8.50 9.00 8.71 57 0.93 8.43 8.25 8.00 8.43 February-17 55 0.68 8.57 8.50 8.00 8.52 54 0.73 8.37 8.00 8.00 8.32 11
  12. Statistics Department Expectation of annually compounded interest rate of TRY denominated Government Domestic Debt Securities with maturity of about three months (% ) End of the Current Month Current Period 1 - Month Ahead 3 - Month Ahead No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean February-16 59 0.39 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.47 57 0.44 10.58 10.55 10.50 10.54 57 0.48 10.65 10.70 10.50 10.66 March-16 50 0.44 10.15 10.23 10.50 10.15 48 0.46 10.16 10.20 10.00 10.16 49 0.50 10.27 10.30 10.00 10.27 April-16 58 0.39 9.42 9.48 9.50 9.42 56 0.46 9.33 9.25 9.00 9.33 54 0.61 9.34 9.30 9.50 9.34 May-16 51 0.31 9.41 9.40 9.40 9.37 48 0.41 9.36 9.30 9.50 9.30 47 0.51 9.40 9.30 9.00 9.36 June-16 57 0.27 9.18 9.25 9.30 9.18 53 0.29 9.14 9.10 9.00 9.16 53 0.39 9.20 9.20 9.00 9.22 July-16 58 0.46 8.57 8.50 8.00 8.57 55 0.47 8.53 8.50 8.00 8.53 54 0.51 8.59 8.60 8.00 8.59 August-16 51 0.32 8.47 8.40 9.00 8.47 49 0.36 8.47 8.50 8.50 8.47 48 0.39 8.53 8.50 8.00 8.53 September-16 57 0.28 8.38 8.30 8.30 8.33 54 0.29 8.33 8.33 8.50 8.33 54 0.42 8.43 8.42 8.50 8.40 October-16 58 0.28 8.37 8.33 8.50 8.35 55 0.36 8.43 8.40 8.50 8.39 54 0.37 8.47 8.50 8.50 8.47 November-16 52 0.42 8.72 8.65 8.50 8.72 51 0.45 8.82 8.70 8.50 8.82 50 0.60 8.92 8.78 9.00 8.92 December-16 53 0.65 9.13 8.90 8.75 8.98 50 0.72 9.26 9.00 9.00 9.11 48 0.67 9.33 9.23 9.50 9.33 January-17 55 0.73 10.34 10.50 10.00 10.39 55 0.76 10.44 10.50 11.00 10.53 54 0.70 10.50 10.50 11.00 10.50 February-17 54 0.48 10.82 11.00 11.00 10.87 54 0.53 10.89 11.00 11.00 10.94 52 0.59 10.87 11.00 11.00 10.89 12
  13. Statistics Department Expectation of annually compounded interest rate of TRY denominated Government Domestic Debt Securities with maturity of about three months (% ) 6 - Month Ahead Current Period 12 - Month Ahead 24 - Month Ahead No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean February-16 56 0.53 10.63 10.60 10.50 10.66 55 0.74 10.51 10.55 11.00 10.46 54 1.05 10.30 10.40 10.00 10.38 March-16 47 0.53 10.28 10.30 10.00 10.28 46 0.72 10.21 10.28 10.00 10.21 45 0.92 10.04 10.00 10.00 10.04 April-16 53 0.74 9.42 9.50 9.50 9.41 52 0.88 9.45 9.45 10.00 9.45 52 1.14 9.44 9.31 9.00 9.44 May-16 46 0.51 9.45 9.48 9.50 9.45 45 0.75 9.57 9.50 9.50 9.57 45 0.94 9.56 9.50 10.00 9.56 June-16 51 0.58 9.31 9.40 9.50 9.27 51 0.77 9.35 9.45 9.50 9.35 51 0.99 9.33 9.50 9.00 9.33 July-16 52 0.58 8.64 8.50 8.50 8.64 52 0.67 8.70 8.50 8.50 8.70 52 0.84 8.73 8.58 8.50 8.73 August-16 48 0.47 8.64 8.50 8.50 8.64 48 0.56 8.70 8.66 8.00 8.70 48 0.72 8.70 8.70 8.00 8.70 September-16 51 0.53 8.52 8.50 8.50 8.49 50 0.73 8.58 8.50 8.50 8.53 50 0.88 8.64 8.65 8.00 8.64 October-16 51 0.41 8.53 8.50 8.50 8.53 51 0.57 8.61 8.50 8.50 8.61 51 0.75 8.63 8.70 8.50 8.63 November-16 50 0.74 8.98 8.78 8.50 8.98 50 0.76 8.97 8.83 8.50 8.97 49 1.00 8.97 8.75 8.50 8.79 December-16 48 0.65 9.34 9.20 9.00 9.34 48 0.69 9.27 9.02 9.00 9.23 47 0.94 9.13 9.00 9.50 9.05 January-17 52 0.74 10.38 10.28 10.00 10.38 52 0.84 10.11 10.00 10.00 10.11 52 1.13 9.79 10.00 9.00 9.79 February-17 51 0.65 10.77 10.90 10.50 10.81 51 0.86 10.43 10.25 10.00 10.43 51 1.14 10.11 10.00 10.00 10.11 13
  14. Statistics Department Expectation of the Secondary Market Annually Compounded Interest Rate of Fixed Rate TRY Denominated Government Domestic Debt Securities with Maturity of About Five Years (%) 12 - Month Ahead Current Period No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean February-16 60 0.47 10.78 10.94 11.00 10.85 March-16 51 0.49 10.37 10.30 10.00 10.37 April-16 57 0.67 9.67 9.70 10.00 9.67 May-16 52 0.53 9.98 10.00 10.00 9.95 June-16 56 0.58 9.71 9.60 9.50 9.64 July-16 59 0.63 9.33 9.15 9.00 9.24 August-16 51 0.54 9.37 9.40 9.50 9.25 September-16 56 0.52 9.36 9.27 9.00 9.36 October-16 58 0.47 9.49 9.50 9.50 9.43 November-16 56 0.78 10.56 10.78 11.00 10.56 December-16 53 0.79 10.92 11.00 11.00 11.00 January-17 57 0.82 11.03 11.00 11.50 11.03 February-17 56 0.65 10.94 11.00 11.00 10.97 14
  15. Statistics Department Expectation of the Secondary Market Annually Compounded Interest Rate of Fixed Rate TRY Denominated Government Domestic Debt Securities with Maturity of About Ten Years (%) 12 - Month Ahead Current Period No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean February-16 62 0.54 10.76 10.90 11.00 10.82 March-16 55 0.54 10.39 10.30 10.00 10.45 April-16 62 0.70 9.80 9.75 9.50 9.85 May-16 56 0.54 10.12 10.10 10.00 10.10 June-16 58 0.61 9.87 9.78 9.70 9.77 July-16 63 0.70 9.48 9.30 9.00 9.36 August-16 54 0.61 9.57 9.50 9.50 9.50 September-16 60 0.61 9.61 9.50 9.50 9.61 October-16 60 0.56 9.78 9.80 10.00 9.73 November-16 60 0.76 10.79 11.00 11.00 10.83 December-16 58 0.76 11.10 11.25 11.50 11.18 January-17 59 0.84 11.13 11.20 11.00 11.13 February-17 58 0.77 10.97 11.00 11.00 11.00 15